现收现付制改革对宏观经济的影响【外文翻译】.doc

1、0外文文献翻译原文THEMACROECONOMICIMPACTOFREFORMINGAPAYGSYSTEMAMAJORCONCERNOFPOLICYMAKERSINMANYCOUNTRIES,PARTICULARLYAMONGTHOSEINTHEEUROPEANUNION,ISTHATDEMOGRAPHICSHIFTWILLDISRUPTNATIONALSOCIALSECURITYSYSTEMSHOWEVER,INCREASINGDEMOGRAPHICPRESSUREMUSTNOTPUTINTOQUESTIONTHEIMPORTANCEOFSOCIALSECURITYPENSIONSYSTEM

2、SINPROVIDINGSECURE,DURABLEANDEFFECTIVESOCIALPROTECTIONANDGUARANTEEINGADECENTSTANDARDOFLIVINGINOLDAGEASPARTOFTHERESPONSETOTHIS,THEDEVELOPMENTOFCOMPLEMENTARYOCCUPATIONALRETIREMENTPENSIONSCHEMESISALREADYTAKINGPLACEMANYEUROPEANCOUNTRIESHAVERECOGNIZEDTHENEEDTOADDRESSTHEPROFOUNDPUBLICPOLICYIMPLICATIONSOFA

3、GEINGPOPULATIONSIN1999,THEECONOMICPOLICYCOMMITTEEESTABLISHEDTHEAGEINGWORKINGGROUP,SPECIFICALLYTOEXAMINETHEECONOMICANDBUDGETARYIMPLICATIONSOFAGEINGTHEREPORTPRESENTEDBYTHEAWGINCLUDEDDEMOGRAPHICPROJECTIONS,PROJECTIONSFORTHEIMPACTOFAGEINGPOPULATIONSONPUBLICPENSIONEXPENDITURESANDONPUBLICEXPENDITURESONHEA

4、LTHANDLONGTERMCAREITALSOPROVIDEDANANALYSISOFHOWTHESEPROJECTIONSCOULDBEUSEDTOEXAMINETHEOVERALLSUSTAINABILITYOFPUBLICFINANCESASARESULT,MANYCHANGESHAVEBEENINTRODUCEDTOTHEFUNCTIONINGOFSOCIALSECURITYSYSTEMSINORDERTOMINIMIZESOMEOFTHEPROJECTEDVALUESDESPITETHIS,THEREISNOUNANIMITYONTHEFORECASTRESULTSCONCERNI

5、NGFINANCIALSUSTAINABILITYFELDSTEINDISCUSSESAPOSSIBLESOLUTIONTOTHEDOUBLEPROBLEMOFTHERISINGCOSTOFPENSIONSANDOFENSURINGAEUROPEANUNIONFREELABOURMARKETTHEPROPOSALCOMBINESANINVESTMENTBASEDSYSTEMOFINDIVIDUALACCOUNTSWITHANOTIONALDEFINEDCONTRIBUTIONSYSTEMFINANCEDBYPAYGTAXESASPRESENTED,SUCHAMIXEDSYSTEMELIMINA

6、TESTHERISKOFVERYLOWLEVELSOFRETIREMENTINCOME,BUTINCREASESINVESTMENTRISKFELDSTEINDESCRIBESTHERISKSIMPLIEDBYAMIXEDSYSTEMOFSOCIALSECURITYPENSIONBENEFITSFINANCEDTHROUGHDIFFERENTCOMBINATIONSOFPAYGTAXESANDPERSONALRETIREMENTACCOUNTSAVINGS,ARGUINGTHATTHESERISKSCANBEREDUCEDBYUSINGPRIVATEMARKET1GUARANTEESTRATE

7、GIESFELDSTEINDISCUSSESHOWSUCHAMIXEDSYSTEMCOULDWORKINPRACTICEANDHOWTHETRANSITIONTOSUCHACHANGECOULDBEACHIEVED,ANALYSINGTHEPOSSIBLEECONOMICGAINSANDTHELIKELYPROBLEMSWITHREGARDTOANYINVESTMENTBASEDPLANADMINISTRATIVECOSTS,RISKANDINCOMEDISTRIBUTIONTHEEUROPEANCOMMISSIONHASANALYSEDTHEPOLICYOPTIONSCONCERNINGPE

8、NSIONSYSTEMREFORMINTHEEUITDISCUSSESINBROADTERMSTHEADVANTAGESANDDISADVANTAGESOFTHEVARIOUSREFORMOPTIONSTHEEUMAKESADISTINCTIONBETWEENPARAMETRICANDSYSTEMICREFORMSWHETHERTHEREFORMSAREUNDERTAKENWITHINTHEEXISTINGPENSIONSYSTEMS,ORWHETHERTHEYINVOLVEASWITCHFROMACURRENTSYSTEMTOANEWONETHEOVERALLCONCLUSIONISTHAT

9、AMIXEDPENSIONSYSTEMMAYCONSTITUTEANOPTIMALPOLICYPATHTOBEFOLLOWEDBYTHEEUSUCHAPATHWOULDPRESENTSTRONGGAINSFORALLTHEKEYPOLICYVARIABLESTHATARETARGETEDANINCREASEINTHELEVELOFGDPCOMPAREDWITHTHEBASELINE,ASUBSTANTIALREDUCTIONINTHETRANSITIONBURDENIMPOSEDONWORKERS,ANDOVERALLGAINSINTERMSOFTHECONSUMPTIONOFBOTHTHEW

10、ORKINGAGEPOPULATIONANDPENSIONERSMORERECENTLY,THEECONOMICPOLICYCOMMITTEEHASPROVIDEDANOVERVIEWOFANALYSESONTHEIMPACTOFAGEINGPOPULATIONSONPUBLICFINANCESITALSOEXAMINEDTHEMERITSANDLIMITATIONSOFTHEAPPROACHUSEDTOASSESSTHESUSTAINABILITYOFPUBLICFINANCESONTHEBASISOFTHE2002STABILITYANDCONVERGENCEPROGRAMMESPREPA

11、REDBYEUMEMBERSTATESGENERALLY,PUBLICSPENDINGONPENSIONSISPROJECTEDTOINCREASEBYBETWEEN3AND5PERCENTAGEPOINTSOFGDPINTHECOMINGDECADES,LARGELYDRIVENBYINCREASINGOLDAGEDEPENDENCYRATIOSONEIMPORTANTCONCLUSIONISTHATPARAMETRICREFORMS,SUCHASTHECHANGINGOFINDEXINGRULES,ABETTERACTUARIALMATCHBETWEENCONTRIBUTIONSANDBE

12、NEFITS,THELINKINGOFPENSIONENTITLEMENTSTOLIFEEXPECTANCYANDMEASURESTORAISETHEEFFECTIVEAGEOFRETIREMENT,COULDHAVEAMAJORIMPACTONREDUCINGTHEEXPECTEDINCREASEINPENSIONEXPENDITURENOLESSIMPORTANT,ASECONDCONCLUSIONISTHATTHEPURSUITOFONEOROTHERREFORMINISOLATIONFROMTHERESTCOULDONLYPARTIALLYABSORBTHEEXPECTEDINCREA

13、SEINPENSIONEXPENDITUREINADDITION,THEASSESSMENTOFTHESUSTAINABILITYOFPUBLICFINANCESDEMONSTRATEDAPARTICULARLYHIGHRISKOFUNSUSTAINABLEPUBLICFINANCESFORTHEFOUREUROAREACOUNTRIESWITHTHEHIGHEST2UNDERLYINGDEFICITSIN2002CERDAARGUESTHATASOCIALSECURITYREFORMBASEDONINDIVIDUALACCOUNTSMIGHTRESOLVETHEFINANCIALCHALLE

14、NGESOFAGEINGSOCIETIES,DESPITETHECONSIDERABLEFISCALCOSTSINCURREDBYTHETRANSITIONTOANINDIVIDUALACCOUNTSYSTEMYET,INTHECONTEXTOFTHEUNITEDSTATES,SHILLERFORECASTSDISAPPOINTINGPERFORMANCERESULTSFORASOCIALSECURITYSYSTEMBASEDONPERSONALACCOUNTSTHISCONTRASTSWITHOTHERRESEARCHFOCUSINGONTHENETHERLANDSTHATSHOWSTHAT

15、THETRANSITIONFROMACOMBINEDPAYGANDPREFUNDEDSYSTEMTOAMAINLYPREFUNDEDSYSTEMISAVIABLEALTERNATIVEINACONTEXTOFDEMOGRAPHICCHANGE,OURRESEARCHAIMSTOBRINGADDITIONALEVIDENCETOTHEDEBATEONSOCIALSECURITYSYSTEMFINANCIALSUSTAINABILITYBYLOOKINGATTHEIMPACTSOFVARIOUSTYPESOFREFORMOPTIONSTHENEWVERSIONOFTHEHERPORMODELWAS

16、USEDTOSIMULATETHEMACROECONOMICEFFECTSOFSOCIALSECURITYSYSTEMREFORMSASWELLASTHEIRIMPACTONFINANCIALSUSTAINABILITYTHEMAGNITUDEANALYSISOFTHESEREFORMSISBASEDONTWOSCENARIOSBASELINESCENARIOREPRESENTINGTHESIMULATIONOFTHESOCIALSECURITYSYSTEMWITHOUTREFORMSTHISSCENARIOCORRESPONDSTOTHETRAJECTORYOBSERVEDINTHEPORT

17、UGUESEECONOMYFROM1977UNTIL2045ANDTOAPROJECTIONOFTHEECONOMYFROM2005UNTIL2050,WITHANNUALDATAALTERNATIVESCENARIOSREPRESENTINGHYPOTHETICALTRAJECTORIESOFTHEECONOMYGIVENSOCIALSECURITYSYSTEMREFORMSTHESESCENARIOSDIFFERACCORDINGTOTHESPECIFICREFORMIMPLEMENTED,ORPUTALTERNATIVELY,TOAPARTICULARVARIABLESHOCKTHEBA

18、SELINESCENARIO,INADDITIONTOTHEMAJORITYOFTHEALTERNATIVESCENARIOS,RESPECTSAPOLITICALFISCALRULETHATTHEPUBLICDEFICITISALWAYSAPPROXIMATELY3PERCENTOFGDPFROM2005TO2050,WITHADECREASINGTRENDTHISRESTRICTIONISINTRODUCEDWITHTHEAIMOFELIMINATINGTHEPOSSIBILITYTHATTHEDEFICITCOULDREACHVALUESTHATAREUNACCEPTABLEWITHIN

19、THEAMBITOFEUROPEANUNIONREGULATIONS,ASEXPRESSEDINTHEMAASTRICHTTREATYWITHTHISRULE,WEPLACETHEFISCALBURDENONPRIVATEINCOME,INEACHYEAR,DEPENDENTONTHEGAPBETWEENTHEPUBLICDEFICITWITHANDWITHOUTSHOCKINTHEPREVIOUSYEAR3INADDITION,WEASSUMEAREGULATORYCONVERGENCEOFTHEPUBLICSECTORSOCIALSECURITYSCHEMEANDTHEGENERALREG

20、IMEOFTHESOCIALSECURITYSYSTEM,REFLECTINGATRENDTHATISALREADYTAKINGPLACEWITHREGARDTOAMENDMENTSOFTHERETIREMENTAGEANDTHEBENEFITFORMULAHENCE,THEEFFECTIVECONTRIBUTIONRATEUSEDINTHEMODELWASCONSTRUCTEDUSINGTHETOTALREVENUESRECEIVEDBYSOCIALSECURITYOBTAINEDFROMANNUALNATIONALACCOUNTS6SPECIFICALLY,THEEFFECTIVECONT

21、RIBUTIONRATETOSOCIALSECURITYISTHERATIOBETWEENTHETOTALCONTRIBUTIONSMADEBYHOUSEHOLDSANDEMPLOYERSTOTHESOCIALSECURITYSYSTEMANDTOTALCOMPENSATIONMOREPRECISELY,THISISANESTIMATEOFTHEEFFECTIVECONTRIBUTIONRATE,INTHESENSETHATTOTALCOMPENSATIONREPRESENTSTHESUMOFGROSSWAGESANDTHECONTRIBUTIONSTOSOCIALSECURITYMADEBY

22、THEEMPLOYERSCONSIDERINGTHATTHESTATUTORYCONTRIBUTIONRATEISAPPLIEDTOGROSSWAGES,THEEFFECTIVECONTRIBUTIONRATETHATWEOBTAINEDHASASMALLERVALUETHANTHEONETHATWOULDBEOBTAINEDIFTHECONTRIBUTIONSTOSOCIALSECURITYMADEBYTHEEMPLOYERSWERETAKENFROMTOTALCOMPENSATIONTHEREFORE,FOR2004,THECONTRIBUTIONRATEIS258PERCENT,WHIC

23、HCORRESPONDSTOANEFFECTIVECONTRIBUTIONRATEOF3136PERCENTCOMPAREDTOTHESTATUTORYRATEOF3475PERCENTTHEDIFFERENCEBETWEEN3475PERCENTAND3136PERCENTCANBEEXPLAINEDBYTHENEEDTOFINANCETAXBENEFITSANDDEBTSTOTHESYSTEMTHISDIFFERENCEMUSTBETAKENINTOACCOUNTWHENREADINGTHESIMULATIONRESULTSOFTHEALTERNATIVESCENARIOSPRESENTE

24、DBELOWWEALSOASSUMEDTHATTHESOCIALSECURITYRESERVEFUNDWOULDGROWATAREALRATEOF3PERCENTPERYEARINTHESIMULATIONPERIODTHISASSUMPTIONISBASEDONTHERESULTSPRESENTEDINTHE2003ANNUALREPORTOFTHEFEFSS,WHICHPRESENTSANAVERAGEREALRETURNOF28PERCENTFORTHEPERIOD1989TO2003THEBASELINESCENARIOTHECONSTRUCTIONOFTHEBASELINESCENA

25、RIO,SCENARIO0,ISOFGREATIMPORTANCE,SINCEAMOREOPTIMISTICPROJECTIONFORTHEEXOGENOUSVARIABLESWILLDELAYTHEMOMENTATWHICHTHECURRENTSYSTEMENTERSINTODISEQUILIBRIUM,WHILEALESSOPTIMISTICPROJECTIONWILLADVANCETHISMOMENTTHEREFORE,WECONSIDERTWOBASELINESCENARIOSBASELINESCENARIO0HIGHTHEGROWTHRATEOFTHEREALAVERAGEPENSI

26、ONIS15PERCENT4CONSIDERINGTHISSCENARIO,THESOCIALSECURITYSYSTEMENTERSINTODISEQUILIBRIUMINTHEYEAR2027ANDSURVIVESUNTIL2036IFTHESOCIALSECURITYRESERVEFUNDISMOBILIZED,THUSENTERINGINTODISEQUILIBRIUMIN2037BASELINESCENARIO0LOWTHEGROWTHRATEOFTHEAVERAGEPENSIONISEQUALTOTHEGROWTHRATEOFGROSSAVERAGECOMPENSATION,MAI

27、NTAININGUNCHANGEDTHERATIOBETWEENTHEAVERAGEPENSIONANDGROSSAVERAGECOMPENSATIONINTHISSCENARIO,THEDISEQUILIBRIUMOFTHESYSTEMOCCURSINTHEYEAR2018THEMOBILIZATIONOFTHESOCIALSECURITYRESERVEFUNDDELAYSDISEQUILIBRIUMUNTIL2028HENCE,THISSECONDBASELINESCENARIOPRESENTSAWORSEEVOLUTIONOFSOCIALSECURITYFINANCIALSUSTAINA

28、BILITYTHEIMPACTSOFTHEREFORMSTAKEINTOACCOUNTTHESETWOBASELINESCENARIOSSCENARIO1THISSCENARIOINCORPORATESCHANGES,ORPARAMETRICREFORMS,TOTHEEXISTINGPAYGSYSTEM,NAMELYSCENARIO1ATHEELIMINATIONOFEARLYRETIREMENTSCHEMESSCENARIO1BAPOSITIVESHOCKINTHEEFFECTIVECONTRIBUTIONRATETOSOCIALSECURITYSCENARIO1CBOTHTHEABOVEC

29、HANGES1A1BINTRODUCEDSIMULTANEOUSLYTOOBTAINSCENARIO1A,WECONSTRUCTEDANALTERNATIVESERIESFORTHENUMBEROFPENSIONHOLDERS,FROMWHICHTHEEARLYRETIREMENTSCHEMESAREELIMINATEDANDWHICHCONSIDERSTHATWORKERSWILLRETIREATAGE65SCENARIO1BCONSIDERSAONEPERCENTAGEPOINTINCREASEINTHEEFFECTIVECONTRIBUTIONRATE,RISINGTO268PERCEN

30、TSCENARIO2THISSCENARIOCONSIDERSTHETRANSITIONFROMTHEEXISTINGPAYGSYSTEMTOAFULLYPREFUNDEDSYSTEM,REPRESENTINGASYSTEMICREFORMASMENTIONED,THEBASEYEARFORIMPLEMENTINGTHEMODELIS2005THISYEARWASCHOSENBECAUSEITISTHELASTYEARFORWHICHALLTHEDATANEEDEDTOCALIBRATETHEMODELWASAVAILABLETHESIMULATIONPERIODENDSIN2050ASETO

31、FHYPOTHESESWASESTABLISHEDINORDERTOPERFORMTHISSCENARIOTHENEWSYSTEMHASASINGLEFUNDANDITSMANAGEMENT,WHETHERPRIVATEORPUBLIC,ITISNOTCONSIDEREDHEREWECONSIDEREDA3PERCENTREALRETURNRATEFORTHENEWFUND,SIMILARTOTHEONE5OBTAINEDBYTHESOCIALSECURITYRESERVEFUNDTHEINTRODUCTIONOFAPREFUNDEDSYSTEMOCCURSIN2005,MEANINGTHAT

32、THETRANSITIONPERIODENDSWHENTHEREARENOFURTHERPENSIONCLAIMANTSINTHEPAYGSYSTEMINDIVIDUALSWITH15YEARSORLESSOFCONTRIBUTIONSTOTHEPAYGSYSTEMATTHEINCEPTIONOFTHEPREFUNDEDSYSTEMAREAUTOMATICALLYTRANSFERREDFROMTHEFORMERSYSTEMTOTHELATTER,IETHEIRCONTRIBUTIONSAREPAIDINTOTHENEWPREFUNDEDSYSTEMTHOSEINDIVIDUALSWITHMOR

33、ETHAN15YEARSOFCONTRIBUTIONSREMAININTHEPAYGSYSTEMATANYMOMENTINTIME,THEREAREINDIVIDUALSUNDERTHEOLDSYSTEMANDINDIVIDUALSUNDERTHENEWSYSTEM,BUTBOTHTHELABOURFORCEANDTHEPENSIONCLAIMANTSINTHETWOSYSTEMSMUSTBEEQUALTOTHEVALUEVERIFIEDTOTHOSEVARIABLESINTHEBASELINESCENARIOFROM2005,ALLNEWENTRANTSTOTHELABOURFORCEARE

34、INTEGRATEDINTOTHENEWSYSTEM,WHICHMEANSTHATTHELABOURFORCEINTHEPAYGSYSTEMWILLDIMINISHWITHTIME,BECOMINGEXTINCTATTHEPOINTATWHICHTHEAVERAGEAGEOFTHEINDIVIDUALSCONCERNEDREACHESAGE65,WHICH,BYHYPOTHESIS,WECONSIDERWILLOCCURIN2038INDIVIDUALSUNDERTHENEWSYSTEMMAYRETIREINTHEFIRSTTWOYEARSOFITSEXISTENCE,BUTTHEPENSIO

35、NBENEFITCALCULATIONWILLBEINACCORDANCEWITHTHERULESOFTHEOLDSYSTEMWITHREGARDTOTHEGRADUALCHANGINGOVEROFSYSTEMS,WEASSUMEDTHATTHESOCIALSECURITYRESERVEFUNDWILLRUNOUTSIMULTANEOUSLYWITHTHEDISAPPEARANCEOFTHEPAYGSYSTEM,ALLEVIATINGANYNEEDFORTHEADDITIONALFINANCINGOFTHISOLDSYSTEMSCENARIO2ISCOMPAREDONLYWITHBASELIN

36、ESCENARIO0LOWCONCLUSIONSWECANCONCLUDETHATTHEIMPLEMENTATIONOFAFULLYPREFUNDEDSOCIALSECURITYSYSTEMWOULDPLACEANENORMOUSBURDENONTHEECONOMY,ATLEASTFORTHEDURATIONOFTHETRANSITIONPERIODUNLESSTHEREISANENTIREGENERATIONWILLINGTOSUPPORTALLTHETRANSITIONCOSTS,THEINCEPTIONOFAFULLYPREFUNDEDSYSTEMDOESNOTAPPEARTOBEAGO

37、ODSOLUTIONTHATSAID,THEEXISTINGSOCIALSECURITYSYSTEMISNOTSUSTAINABLEWITHOUT6MAJORREFORMTHEELIMINATIONOFEARLYRETIREMENTSCHEMESISONEPOSSIBLEOPTIONTOCONSIDER,WITHGAINSTOBEHADBYALLCONCERNEDHOWEVER,ITWOULDNOTONLYPROVOKEANINCREASEINEMPLOYMENT,BUTALSOANINCREASEINTHEUNEMPLOYMENTRATENEVERTHELESS,THEPROSPECTIVE

38、GAINSLEADUSTOCONCLUDETHATTHISPOLICYOPTIONSHOULDBEADOPTED,ALONGWITHOTHERMEASURESINORDERTOSTIMULATEEMPLOYMENTCREATIONANDPRODUCTIVITYGAINSADDITIONALLY,THEINCREASEINTHEEFFECTIVECONTRIBUTIONRATETOTHESOCIALSECURITYSYSTEMMAYCONSTITUTEANIMPROVEMENTINITSFINANCIALSUSTAINABILITY,ALTHOUGHACCOMPANIEDBYADETERIORA

39、TIONOFECONOMICPERFORMANCEFINALLY,THECOMBINATIONOFTHETWOPROPOSEDPARAMETRICREFORMSELIMINATINGEARLYRETIREMENTANDINCREASINGTHEEFFECTIVECONTRIBUTIONRATERESULTSINACONSISTENTIMPROVEMENT,BOTHOFSOCIALSECURITYSYSTEMFINANCIALSUSTAINABILITYANDOFECONOMICGROWTHTHEMOBILIZATIONOFTHESOCIALSECURITYRESERVEFUNDALWAYSHA

40、STHEEFFECTOFDELAYINGTHEINSOLVENCYOFTHESOCIALSECURITYSYSTEM,WHICHDEMONSTRATESITSIMPORTANCEINAMIXEDSOCIALSECURITYSYSTEMTHUS,WECANCONCLUDETHATPARAMETRICREFORMSTOTHEEXISTINGSYSTEMSUGGESTTHATTHEPAYGSYSTEM,WHENREINFORCEDBYANDCOMBINEDWITHARESERVEFUNDINORDERTOMAKEITAMIXEDSYSTEM,MAYHAVESOMEADVANTAGESOVERAFUL

41、LYPREFUNDEDSYSTEMTHERESULTSOFTHEPARAMETRICSHOCKSTOTHEEXISTINGSYSTEMSHOWTHATITISPOSSIBLETOENSUREITSFINANCIALSUSTAINABILITYTHECURRENTPUBLICPENSIONSYSTEMCANBEMADEMORESUSTAINABLEBYUNDERTAKINGPARAMETRICREFORMSWITHAVIEWTOIMPROVINGINCENTIVESTOWORKANDTOSTRENGTHENINGTHEACTUARIALLINKBETWEENCONTRIBUTIONSANDBEN

42、EFITSASYSTEMICREFORMINVOLVESQUESTIONSOTHERTHANFUNDING,INPARTICULARTHEOBJECTIVEOFDIVERSIFICATIONINTERMSOFRETIREMENTINCOMEPROVISION,THERISKSINVOLVEDINDIFFERENTSYSTEMSANDTHEDIFFICULTQUESTIONOFBALANCINGTHEPOSSIBLEBENEFICIALSIDEEFFECTSONTHEECONOMYWITHTHEINEVITABLECOSTSOFTHETRANSITIONPROCESSTHEREFORE,GIVE

43、NTHEIMPORTANCEOFTHESOCIALSECURITYSYSTEMTOTHEWELLBEINGOFWORKERS,RETIREES,THEBUDGETANDTHEECONOMY,ASERIOUSANDTHOUGHTFULDEBATEONHOWBESTTOREFORMSOCIALSECURITYSYSTEMSMUSTCONTINUETHISALSOIMPLIESTHEEXAMINATIONOFTHEPOSSIBLEMYTHSOFSOCIALSECURITYREFORM7SOURCEMARIATERESAMEDEIROSGARCIA，EMIDIOGRACALOPESTHEMACROEC

44、ONOMICIMPACTOFREFORMINGAPAYGSYSTEMJINTERNATIONALSOCIALSECURITYREVIEW，2009，（62）5238译文现收现付制改革对宏观经济的影响近年来欧洲许多国家格外的关注其国家的人口结构变化，人口老龄化的加剧以使多国国家的社会保障制度遭到破坏。但我们不能把人口结构变化作为损害社会安全稳定，破坏社会保障体制的唯一原因，要从根本上完善社会保障体系需要对社会养老金制度与退休金制度进行改革。许多欧洲国家已经出台相关社会保障政策以解决人口老龄化的影响。1999年，葡萄牙经济政策委员会成立了人口老龄化工作小组，专门研究老龄化所带来的的经济和预算问题。

45、由工作组提交的报告内容包括人口预测，人口老龄化对社会养老金支出以及对健康和长期护理服务的公共支出的影响预测。尽管在社会保障制度改革中已经考虑了许多不确定因素，但财政可持续性的预测结果还是和预期不一致。费尔德斯坦提出了在欧盟自由劳动力成本上升的基础上确保养老金支付的解决方案。该提案结合了现收现付制度和个人账户资金系统，结合后的新系统减少了低收入人员的退休收入。费尔德斯坦介绍了养老金的社会保障策略，通过现收现付制和个人退休储蓄账户资金的不同组合，福利制度所隐含的风险可以通过私人市场保障策略降低。费尔德斯坦还提出了如何将这样一个混合新型的系统付诸于实践中，如何对这种过渡转变得以实现，分析了任何以投资

46、为基础的计划可能出现的经济收益和可能遇到的问题行政成本，风险和收入分配。欧盟委员会对多种有关养老金制度改革政策进行了分析，总结了各种改革方案的优点和缺点。欧盟国家提出了制度改革的疑问，是否对现行的退休金制度进行改革，社会是否能够适应从当前系统切换到一个新的混合系统。总的结论是，新的混合养老金制度可能会在欧盟国家得到很好的运行。新制度的运行将引出其他重要政策，国内生产总值与基线水平的比较，劳动者所承受的社会负担将大幅降低，工作年龄多的人员和退休人员在消费水平方面将有所提高。最近，葡萄牙经济政策委员会提出了老龄化对公共财政影响的分析概述，它还在假设欧盟成员国接受方案的基础上审议和评估了公共财政的可

47、持续性方法的局限性。一般而言，通过改革社会养老金支出预计将增加3至5个百分点，这主要靠增加养老保险金占国内生产总值的比率驱动。其中一个重要的结论是9参数化改革，如索引规则的改变，缴费和福利之间的比例要求更精确，养老金待遇与预期寿命和措施相衔接，提高了退休的年龄，这将会减少养老金方面的支出。第二个结论是，改革不能从孤立的角度去看，不然吸收部分养老金只会使支出预期增加。此外，对公共财政的可持续性评估显示，与基本赤字最高的四个欧元区国家不可实施相同的公共财政，这样会使社会保障制度改革的风险加大。塞尔达认为，社会保障制度改革在建立个人账户的基础上进行，但对个人账户制度过渡所产生的巨大财政成本是对老龄化

48、社会的巨大财政挑战。然而，在美国，希勒预测的以个人账户为基础的社会保障制度所呈现的结果却截然不同。与此相反，荷兰表示从现收现付制度过渡到一个预先支付的体制才是可行的替代方案，应作重点研究。在人口变化的背景下，我们的研究目的是使通过的改革方案，在不同的影响下寻找更多的证据来对社会保障制度的财政可持续性发展进行辩论。用模型来模拟社会保障制度改革对宏观经济以及经济可持续发展的影响。社会保障制度改革的分析是基于以下两种情况基准情景代表了社会保障制度的模拟改革。这种情况下对应的观察轨迹是从1977年至2045年期间的经济预测以及从2005年到2050年的年度数据。替代方案代表了特定的社会保障制度改革的经

49、济假设轨迹。这些轨迹是根据不同的改革方案，把特殊的变量考虑入内进行实施所形成的。替代方案更加注重政治因素，葡萄牙政府规定公共财政的赤字占国内生产总值的比例不能超过3，并且要求从2005年至2050年呈下降趋势。这项限制是将财政赤字的数额控制在可承受范围之内，赤字的数值不能超过欧盟在马斯特里赫特条约里的规定。该条约规定，对政府的财政负担是由每年或在过去一年中的公共赤字缺口的数额而定。此外，我们假设一个公共部门的社会保障计划和社会保障制度的监管有所相同，这一趋势是制定和修改退休年龄公式的基础。因此，用于模型中的制度合理有效，就会获得较高的社会保障基金收入，从而提高国家有效的贡献率。社会安全系数是家

50、庭向社会捐款总额占社会总捐款额的比率，在某种意义上来说这就是有效的社会贡献率，即按工资和社会保障基金所作贡献的总和。法定10的贡献率是适用于工资总额，而有效的贡献率适用于补偿得到的社会保障基金总额。因此，2004年的实际社会贡献率是258，这对应于3136有效的贡献率和3475法定税率，3475和3136的差异是可以解释的，这种差异，必须考虑到下文提出的替代方案的模拟结果。我们还假设，在实际利率模拟时期社会保障基金每年将增长3。这种假设是基于2003年FEFSS年度报告，其中介绍的平均实际回报率为28（由19892003年期间提交的结果显示所得）。基准线情景当基准数为0时，此时具有十分重要的意