发展中国家的债务漏洞：一个新的债务陷阱区域与主题分析（英文版）.pptx

1、UNITED NA TIONS CONFERENCE ON TRADE AND DEVELOPMENT DEBT VULNERABILITIES IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES:A NEW DEBT TRAP?Volume I: Regional and Thematic AnalysesNew York and Geneva, 20182 DEBT VULNERABILITIES IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES: A NEW DEBT TRAP? VOLUME I: REGIONAL ANALYSES 2017, United NationsThis work

2、 is available open access by complying with the Creative Commons licence created for intergovernmental organizations, available at http:/creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/.The findings, interpretations and conclusions expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the

3、 views of the United Nations or its officials or Member States.The designation employed and the presentation of material on any map in this work do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the United Nations concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area

4、 or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.Photocopies and reproductions of excerpts are allowed with proper credits. This publication has not been formally edited.United Nations publication issued by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.U

5、NCTAD/GDS/MDP/2017/4 (Vol I)3ABOUT THE AUTHORSABOUT THE AUTHORSBruno Bonizzi is Lecturer in Political Economy. He holds a PhD and a masters degree from the School of Oriental and African Studies (SOAS), University of London. He has taught at City University and the University of East London. His doc

6、toral research focussed on pension funds and their investments in emerging market economies. Financialisation, pension funds and developing countries feature prominently in his current research projects.Jan Toporowski is Professor of Economics and Finance at SOAS, University of London. He studied ec

7、onomics at Birkbeck College, University of London and the University of Birmingham, UK. He has written widely on financial macroeconomics. His major works include Michael Kalecki: An Intellectual Biography, volume I, Rendezvous in Cambridge 1899-1939 (2013).Why the World Economy needs a Financial Cr

8、ash and other critical essays on Finance and Financial Economics.(2010), Theories of Financial Disturbance. An Examination of Critical Theories of Finance from Adam Smith to the Present Day. (2005) and The End of Finance: The Theory of Capital Market Inflation, Financial Derivatives, and Pension Fun

9、d Capitalism (2000).Annina Kaltenbrunner is Lecturer in the Economics of Globalisation and the International Economy at Leeds University Business School. She holds a PhD and MSc in Development Economies from the School of Oriental and African Studies (SOAS), a Postgraduate Certification in Econometr

10、ics from Birkbeck, and an undergraduate degree in Economics from the Vienna University of Economics and Business Administration. Her areas of research are development economics, international finance, monetary economics, international political economy, heterodox economics and methodology. She has p

11、ublished on exchange rate theory, currency internationalisation, financial integration, financialisation, and the Eurozone Crisis.Yuefen Li is Special Advisor on Economics and Development Finance at the South Centre, Geneva. Previously, she was Head of Debt and Development Finance Branch, Division o

12、f Globalization and Development Strategies at UNCTAD. She has published widely in books and journals on debt, finance and other economic issues and contributed extensively to UNCTAD publications and documents.5CONTENTSAbout the authors Introduction References. 3. 7. 13SOVEREIGN DEBT SUSTAINABILITY I

13、N SUB-SAHARAN AFRICABRUNO BONIZZI AND JAN TOPOROWSKI . 15Introduction . 16I. Trends in foreign debt of SSA. 17A. The incidence of external debt in SSA in recent years . 17B. The importance of long-term and private debt . 21II. Causes and implications of recent changes in external debt of SSA countri

14、es. 25A. Commodity cycles and exchange rates. 25B. Monetary policy, and global financial integration. 28III. Debt Sustainability Criteria. 31IV. Policy considerations and implications . 32A. Interdependence with private sector foreign indebtedness. 32B. The international monetary cycle . 33V. Conclu

15、sion . 34Appendix: The dependence of short-term debt on long-term financing possibilities . 35 Notes. 37References. 38SOVEREIGN DEBT SUSTAINABILITY IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA ADDITIONAL REPORT: INDIVIDUAL COUNTRIES DEBT CONDITIONS AND PROJECTIONSBRUNO BONIZZI AND JAN TOPOROWSKI . 39Introduction . 40Debt

16、projections . 45Concluding remarks . 51Notes. 52THE FINANCIALISATION OF NON-FINANCIAL CORPORATIONS IN BRAZILANNINA KALTENBRUNNER. 53Introduction . 54 I.Finance, Financialisation and Development. 54II. The Changing Financial Behaviour of Large Brazilian NFCs . 56A. The Liability Side of NFCs Balance

17、Sheets. 56B. The Asset Side of NFCs Balance Sheets . 61III. The Determinants of NFCs Financialisation in EMEs: SubordinatedInternationalisation . 63IV. Conclusions. 65Notes. 67References. 69CONTENTS6 DEBT VULNERABILITIES IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES: A NEW DEBT TRAP? VOLUME I: REGIONAL ANALYSESCHINAS DEB

18、T PROBLEM AND RISING SYSTEMATIC RISKS: IMPACT OF THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS AND STRUCTURAL PROBLEMSYUEFEN LI. 73Introduction . 74I. The size, composition and evolution of Chinas debt burden. 75II. The Achilles heel: high corporate and local government debt and their changing composition . 76III. Re

19、asons for the rapidly increasing debt burden . 78A. US$ 590 billion stimulus package of 2008. 78B. Shrinking global demand . 78C. Lower investment returns and A property bubble. 78D. Carry trade, illicit financial flows and financial liberalization . 80E. Fast expansion of shadow banking especially

20、WMPs . 81IV. Special features of the Chinese economy to tolerate A high debt ratio . 82A. A large, diversified and growing economy with a strong state role . 82B. Debt is predominantly domestic and external debt is low. 83C. Low central government debt . 83D. Credit mainly coming from the banking se

21、ctor . 83E. High savings rate especially from households. 83F. Capital control and government influence . 84G. Large foreign exchange reserves and significant liquid assets. 84V. Weakening of buffers and increasing systemic risks . 84A. Breathtaking speed of debt increase and diminishing returns. 85

22、B. Non-performing loans from the corporate sector and local governments posea threat to the banking sector . 85C. Systemic risks posed by shadow banking especially WMPs . 86D. Shrinking foreign exchange reserves . 87E. Persistent capital outflows is a systemic risk while sudden large outflowscould t

23、rigger a crisis. 88F. Risks for Chinas large and interconnected financial sector . 88G. Drastic and prolonged decline of investment returns . 89VI. Imminent debt crisis unlikely but high time to address rising systemicvulnerabilities . 90Notes. 93References. 947INTRODUCTIONYet again, unsustainable i

24、nternational debt burdens haunt the developing world and are fast becoming a core obstacle to the international community delivering on its repeated promises to enable sustainable development finance.For the best part of two decades, the driving motor of the global economy has been debt, issued on a

25、 whim and traded for speculative purposes, rather than backing productive and long-term investment, including into the structural transformation of developing economies. With the worlds total gross debt-to-GDP ratio nearing 250 per cent (BIS 2017:283) and global debt stocks surpassing their record l

26、evel at the onset of the global financial crisis (US$ 142 trillions) by over US$ 80 trillion in 2017, it is little wonder that international financial markets continue to show periodic nerves, and policy-makers in lead economies struggle to stabilize an increasingly volatile, fragmented and unbalanc

27、ed global economy.Advanced economies still hold the largest share of these debt stocks. This is as it should be in a context of sluggish recovery from a global economic crisis and impending stagnation. Yet, such continued dependence of world economic growth on debt, for the most part fuelling short-

28、term speculative rather than long-term productive investments, is a constant source of instability as well as escalating income inequities. Governments in the core economies have been unwilling to tackle the systematic removal of toxic debt burdens, accumulated in the run-up to the global financial

29、crisis of 2007/08, from non-bank private sector balance sheets in a comprehensive and orderly manner. In addition, with an irrational addiction to fiscal austerity, in particular in Europe, this has resulted in a surge of highly volatile international flows of cheap credit emanating from an excessiv

30、e reliance on expansive monetary policies in these economies.Not only have these policies failed to ensure a fast and lasting economic recovery based on closing the global demand gap, but the negative spill over effects of persistent deflationary tendencies in advanced economies and global financial

31、 fragility have by now had a profoundly disruptive impact on developing economies prospects of sustained structural transformation. In this context, the growing stock of debt incurred by developing countries and transition economies - estimated to have reached $7.64 trillion in 2017, an increase of over 80 per cent since 2009 - is bound to become a serious liability for their immediate future.While external debt-to-GDP ratios remain relatively low by recent historical standards, on average rising from 21 percent in 2009 to 26 per cent by 2017