麦肯锡&BoF-时尚趋势2019（英文）.pptx

1、The State of Fashion 20192The State of Fashion 20194The State of Fashion 2019ContentsExecutive Summary 10Industry Outlook 12Global Economy 18 37Trend 1: Caution Ahead 19Executive Interview: Joann Cheng 22Trend 2: Indian Ascent 24Executive Interview: Darshan Mehta 28Trend 3: Trade 2.0 31Global Value

2、Chains in Apparel: The New China Effect 34Consumer Shifts 38 69Trend 4: End of Ownership 39Executive Interview: Jennifer Hyman 42Trend 5: Getting Woke 45Executive Interview: Cdric Charbit 48Trend 6: Now or Never 51Executive Interview: Jeff Gennette 54Digital Innovation Made Simple 58Trend 7: Radical

3、 Transparency 60Dealing with the Trust Deficit 62Fashion System 70 91Trend 8: Self-Disrupt 71The Explosion of Small 74Trend 9: Digital Landgrab 77Executive Interview: Nick Beighton 80Trend 10: On Demand 83Is Apparel Manufacturing Coming Home? 86McKinsey Global Fashion Index 92 99Glossary 100End Note

4、s and Detailed Infographics 102GlobalEconomyConsumerShiftsFashionSystemMGFIExecutiveSummaryThe State of Fashion 2019The State of Fashion 2019 marks the third year of an ongoing partnership between TheBusiness of Fashion and McKinsey sets out how well the industry is performing; and identifies where

5、the top priorities, both business and creative are for 2019. Once again, we combine BoFs insider knowledge with McKinseys global expertise and analytical rigour, and then survey more than 270 global fashion executives andinterview many of the industrys thought leaders and pioneers.The State of Fashi

6、on 2019 also includes the third read-out of our industry benchmark, the McKinsey Global Fashion Index (MGFI).Its database of over 500 private and public companies allows us to analyse and compare the performance of individual companies against their peers by category, segment or region. Now three ye

7、ars in, this is an unrivalled resource on which we continue to build.The year ahead is one that will go down in history. Greater China will for the first time in centuries overtake the US as the worlds largest fashion market. It will be a year of awakening after the reckoning of 2018 a time for look

8、ing at opportunities, not just challenges. In the US and in the luxury sector it will be a year of optimism; for Europe and for struggling segments such as the mid-market, optimism may be in short supply. Far-sighted companies will make bold moves in automation and AI, and will disrupt themselves be

9、fore others do it for them. Consumers will make or break brands based on trust. And global economic and political trends hover over the whole picture.In short, its going to be a bumpy ride. But whatever your role from boardroom executive to start-up founder to informed consumer read on, and well cus

10、hion the impact and tell you everything you need to know about the state of fashion in 2019. Imran Amed & Achim Berg7ForewordThomasLohr8The State of Fashion2019Imran AmedAs founder, editor-in-chief and CEO of The Business of Fashion, Imran Amed is one of the fashion industrys leading writers, thinke

11、rs and commentators.Fascinated by the industrys potent blend of creativity and business, he began BoF as a blog in 2007, which has since grown into the pre-eminent global fashion industry resource serving a five-mil-lion-strong community from over 190 countries and territories. Previously, he was a

12、consultant at McKinsey in London.Johanna AnderssonJohanna Andersson co-leads the Scandinavian Apparel, Fashion and Luxury goods hub and has supported companies in the sector ranging from luxury to value around the globe.Johanna focuses on strategy, growth and digital/omnichannel related topics.Achim

13、 BergBased in Frankfurt, Achim Berg leads McKinseys Global Apparel, Fashion & Luxury Practice and is active in all relevant sectors including clothing, textiles, footwear, athletic wear, accessories and retailers spanningfrom the value end to luxury. As a global fashion industry and retail expert,he

14、 supports clients on a broad range of strategic and top management topics, as well as on operations and sourcing- related issues.Saskia HedrichAs global senior expert in McKinseys Apparel, Fashion and Luxury Group, Saskia Hedrich works with fashion companies around the world on strategy, sourcing op

15、timisation, merchandising transformation, and sustainability topics all topics she is also publishing about regularly. Additionally, she is involved in developing strategies for national garment industries across Africa, Asia, and Latin America.Anita BalchandaniAnita Balchandani is a Partner in McKi

16、nseys London office, and leads the Apparel, Fashion & Luxury Practice in the United Kingdom. Her expertise extends across fashion, health andbeauty, department stores and specialty retail in Europe and North America.She focuses on supporting clients in developing their strategic responses to the dis

17、ruptions shaping the retailindustry today, especially in areas such as customer-led digital transformation.Robb YoungAs global markets editor of The Business of Fashion, Robb Young oversees content from Asia-Pacific, the Middle East, Latin America, Africa, the CIS and Eastern Europe. He is an expert

18、 on emergingand frontier markets, whose career as a fashion editor, business journalist, author and strategic consultant has seen him lead industry projects around the world.Contributors9Marco BeltramiBased in London, Marco Beltrami is part of McKinseys Apparel, Fashion and Luxury Practice. He has s

19、upported apparel and beauty companies in the UKand Europe, on topics including strategy, mergers & acquisitions, and retail operations.Dale KimDale Kim is a consultant in McKinseys London office, specialising in Apparel, Fashion and Luxury. He has served global companies ranging from fine jewelleryt

20、o beauty, on topics such as strategy, operating models and M&A.Felix RlkensFelix Rlkens is part of McKinseys Apparel, Fashion & Luxury Group and works with apparel, sportswear, and pure play fashion e-commercecompanies in Europe and North America, on a wide range of topics including strategy, operat

21、ing model and merchan- dising transformations.AcknowledgementsThe authors would like to thank all the members of The Business of Fashion and McKinsey community for their contribution to research and participation in our State of Fashion Survey and the many industry experts, who generously shared the

22、ir perspectives during interviews. In particular, we would like to thank: JessiBaker, Nick Beighton, Alessandro Bogliolo, Tamsin Blanchard, Leonardo Bonanni, Karin Brinck, Cdric Charbit, Joann Cheng, Neliana Fuenmayor, Jeffrey Gennette, Jennifer Hyman, Sanjay Kapoor, Lisa Lang , Yusaku Maezawa, Dars

23、han Mehta, Ananth Narayanan, Stephanie Phair, Rachel Scott, Mike Smith, Paulvan Zyl and the McKinsey Senior Advisors Adrienne Lazarus, Ali Horowitz, Colin Henry and John Hooks.The wider BoF team have also played an instrumental role in creating this report in particular, Vikram Alexei Kansara, Victo

24、ria Berezhna, Nick Blunden, Kati Chitrakorn, Emma Clark, Amanda Dargan, Michael Edelmann, Casey Hall, Yara Heine, Chungaiz Mumtaz, Andres Pajon-Leite, Lauren Sherman, Kate Vartan, Anouk Vlahovic and Yifan Wang.The authors would like to acknowledge the following McKinsey colleagues for their special

25、contributions to the report creation and in-depth articles: Colin Britton, Henna Dattani, Jasmine Vogel, Jessica Moulton, Karl-Hendrik Magnus, Laura Gallagher, Mac Muir, Neil Robbins, Sara Hudson, Susan Lund, and Tunde Olanrewaju.We also appreciate the support, we have received by other McKinsey col

26、leagues across the globe: Adhiraj Chand, Adriana Clemens, Anna Stanley, Aimee Kim, Alex Sukharevsky, Alexander Dobrakovsky,Althea Peng, Andres Avila, Anita Liao, Ankita Das, Antonio Achille, Antonio Gonzalo, Benjamin Durand-Servoingt, Claire Gu, Daniel Zipser, Ewa Sikora, Fernanda Hoefel, Frannie Li

27、, Georgina Buck, Hans-Martin Stockmeier, Heloisa Callegaro, Jan Mischke, Jean- Baptiste Coumau, Jennifer Schmidt, Jihye Lee, Kanika Kalra, Kate VanAkin, Lan Luan, Laura Boege, Marie Strawczynski, Martine Drageset, Mekala Krishnan, Nakul Banga, Neha Nangia Ojha, Peter Stumpner, Purvi Gupta, Pritesh Z

28、ala, Raj Shah, Sophie Marchessou, Silvana Mueller, Susan Nolen Foushee, Tom Skiles, Tomohiko Funaishi, Yasuhiro Ishida, and Younghoon Kang. We also thank David Honigmann and David Wigan for editor support and Katie Smith from Edited for analytical support.In addition, the authors would like to thank

29、 Joanna Zawadzka for her creative input and direction into this State of Fashion report,Andreas Samuelsson for our cover illustration and Getty Images for supplying imagery to bring our findings to life.The State of Fashion20191110For fashion players, 2019 will be a year ofawakening. The ones who wi

30、ll succeed will have to come to terms with the fact that in the new paradigm that is taking shape around them, some of the old rules simply dont work.11Executive SummaryFor fashion players, 2019 will be a year of awakening. The ones who will succeed will have to come to terms with the fact that in t

31、he new paradigm that is taking shape around them, some of the old rules simply dont work. Regardless of size and segment, players now need to be nimble, think digital-first and achieve ever-faster speed to market. They need to take an active stanceon social issues, satisfy consumer demands for ultra

32、-transparency and sustainability, and, most importantly, have the courage to “self-disrupt” their own identity and the sources of their old success in order to realise these changes and win new generations of customers.They also need to invest in enhancing their productivity and resilience, as the o

33、utlook is increasingly uncertain. External shocks to the system continue to lurk around the corner,and growth cannot be taken for granted: the McKinsey Global Fashion Index (MGFI) forecasts growth of 3.5 to 4.5 percent for 2019, slightly below 2018 growth, predicted at 4 to 5 percent. Optimism can b

34、e found only in pockets, notably in North America and in the premium and luxury segments, aided by their strong performance in 2018.The majority of executives in the remaining segments and geographies are pessimistic, citing “dealing with volatility, uncertainty and shifts in the global economy” as

35、their primary concernfor the year ahead. Risks of trade disruptions and slowing economic growth, even in key growth markets in Asia, could undermine global growth prospects, as could uncertainty over other major events such as Brexit or the possible onset of a global economic slowdown.All this comes

36、 against a backdrop of a fashion industry that turned a corner in 2018, with increased growth justifying the optimismAfter a year of reckoning time for an urgent awakeningexpressed in last years global fashion survey. But even with this more positive backdrop, executives are now fully acknowledging

37、thechanging nature of the industry, using words such as “changing,” “digital,” and “fast” to describe it. In a year of reckoning, for which the McKinsey Global Fashion Index predicts growth of 4 to5 percent for 2018 (up from 2.5 to 3.5 percent in 2017), fashion players have begun to look proactively

38、 at opportunities rather than just focusing on challenges ahead.According to McKinsey FashionScope, Greater China is expected to overtake the US as the largest fashion market in the world in 2019.However, recovery continues to be unequal, with most of the growth coming from luxury and emerging marke

39、ts in Asia. According to McKinsey FashionScope, Greater Chinais expected to overtake the US as the largest fashion market in the world in 2019. Mid-market companies and mature economies continue to lag, with the exception of North America, which saw higher than expected growth supported byan expansi

40、ve fiscal policy. Meanwhile, polarisation persists: the top 20 companies in the industry account for 97 percent of economic profit, whilean increasing proportion of publicly-traded fashion companies struggle to create any economic value. The prizes for those who can adapt may be greater than ever but so are the penalties for those who fail.