The hazard of moral hazard intervention to save the economy may be endangering it【外文翻译】.doc

1、原文THEHAZARDOFMORALHAZARDINTERVENTIONTOSAVETHEECONOMYMAYBEENDANGERINGITBYJAMESKGLASSMANWHENSOMEONEINSURESYOUAGAINSTTHECONSEQUENCESOFANASTYEVENT,ODDLYENOUGH,BERAISESTHEINCENTIVESFORYOUTOBEHAVEINAWAYTHATWILLCAUSETHEEVENTSOIFYOURDIAMONDRINGISINSUREDFOR50,000,YOUAREMORELIKELYTOLEAVEITOUTOFTHESAFEECONOMIS

2、TSCALLTHISPHENOMENON“MORALHAZARD,“ANDIFYOULOOKAROUND,YOUWILLSEEITEVERYWHERE“WITHAUTOMOBILECOLLISIONINSURANCE,FOREXAMPLE,ONEISMORELIKELYTOVENTUREFORTHONANICYNIGHT,“WRITESHARVARDECONOMISTRICHARDZECKHAUSERFEDERALDEPOSITINSURANCEMADESAFTERALL,THEINSURERCANRAISEPREMIUMSBUTFROMIMPLICITONESIFYOURTEENAGERTH

3、INKSYOUWILLBAILHIMOUTOFJAILORFIXITWITHTHEJUDGEIFHEGETSARRESTED,THENHEWILLBEMOREAPTTODRIVEDRUNKMOREBROADLY,INTHEJARGONOFALCOHOLICSANONYMOUS,YOURBEHAVIORWOULDBECALLED“ENABLING“BYRESCUINGANALCOHOLICFROMTHECONSEQUENCESOFHISACTIONS,YOUAREENCOURAGINGHIMTODRINKBECAUSEHEFIGURESYOUWILLRESCUEHIMTHENEXTTIMEOVE

4、RTHEPASTTHREEDECADES,THEWORLDHASBEENAWASHINJUSTTHISKINDOFMORALHAZARD,ASGOVERNMENTSHAVEBECOMEMOREADEPTATECONOMICRESCUEANDASPRACTITIONERSOFTHEARTHAVEWONPRAISEFORSEEMINGTOPULLTHEWORLDBACKFROMTHEABYSSCONSIDERTHETHREEGOVERNMENTOFFICIALSSUMMERS,THENDEPUTYSECRETARYOFTHETREASURYROBERTRUBIN,HISBOSSATTREASURY

5、ANDALANGREENSPAN,CHAIRMANOFTHEFEDERALRESERVEWHOSTAREDOUTFROMTHEFEBRUARY15,1999,COVEROFTIME,WHICHCALLEDTHEM,WITHNOIRONY,“THECOMMITTEETOSAVETHEWORLD“WITHHELPFROMTHEINTERNATIONALMONETARYFUNDANDTHEWORLDBANK,THETHREE,WEWERETOLD,HADAVERTEDGLOBALDISASTERS,FROMTHEVAPORIZINGOFTHETHAIBAHT,THEDEFAULTOFRUSSIANB

6、ONDS,ANDTHENEARCOLLAPSEOFLONGTERMCAPITALMANAGEMENTAHUGEGREENWICH,CONNECTICUT,HEDGEFUNDCOFOUNDEDBYTWONOBELECONOMISTSAFEWYEARSLATER,THEFEDCHAIRMANWOULDAPPEARTOSAVETHEWORLDONCEMOREBYDRAMATICALLYCUTTINGUSINTERESTRATESAFTER9/11,INTHEPROCESSREINFORCINGWHATWALLSTREETCALLEDTHEGREENSPAN“PUT“EVERSINCETHE1987S

7、TOCKMARKETCRASH,INBADTIMESTHESTARTOFTHEGULFWAROF199091,THEMEXICANCREDITCRISISOF1994,THEASIANANDRUSSIANBLIGHTSOFTHELATE1990S,ANDTHEPOPPINGOFTHETECHBUBBLEIN2000THEFEDHASPUMPEDLIQUIDITYTHATIS,AVAILABLEMONEYINTOTHEFINANCIALSYSTEM,SAVINGINVESTORSFROMGREATERHORRORSBYKEEPINGSTOCKPRICESBUOYANTASARESULT,INVE

8、STORSBEGANTOBELIEVETHATIFTHEYBOUGHTSTOCKS,THEFEDWASOFFERINGTHEMANIMPLICITPUTOPTION,WHICHPROTECTEDTHEPRICEOFTHEIRSHARESTHROUGHTHICKANDTHIN“THEREHASBEENASENSETHATPARTICIPANTSINTHEMARKETMAYTHINKTHEREISTHISCUSHIONIFTHINGSGETUGLY,“SAIDMICHAELPRELL,AFORMERRESEARCHDIRECTORATTHEFED,INANARTICLEINTHEFINANCIAL

9、TIMESHEADLINED“GREENSPANPUTMAYBEENCOURAGINGCOMPLACENCY“THEDATEWASDECEMBER8,2000EIGHTYEARSLATER,THEGLOBALECONOMYFACEDACRISISCAUSEDBYLENDERSWHOFLAMBOYANTLYDISREGARDEDTHECREDITWORTHINESSOFBORROWERSINRESPONSE,GOVERNMENTRESCUERSINSTITUTEDPOLICIESTHATMADETHEEFFORTSOFTIMESCOMMITTEETOSAVETHEWORLDSEEMQUAINTI

10、NTHECOMMITTEESHEYDAY,THEASIANSGOT40BILLIONINHELP,THERUSSIANS23BILLION,ANDTHEGREENWICHHEDGEFUNDGUYS4BILLIONBUTIN2008AND2009,JUSTTWOPROGRAMSINONECOUNTRYAMERICASTROUBLEDASSETSRELIEFPROGRAMTARPANDITSSTIMULUSPACKAGETOGETHERTOTALMORETHAN15TRILLIONMEANWHILE,THEFEDCUTSHORTTERMINTERESTRATESTOZERO,ANDTHEWHITE

11、HOUSEANDCONGRESSDECIDEDTOSAVETHECOUNTRYSLARGESTINSURANCECOMPANYAMERICANINTERNATIONALGROUP,ORAIG,ITSLARGESTANDSECONDLARGESTAUTOMAKERSGENERALMOTORSANDCHRYSLER,ITSTWOLARGESTPROVIDERSOFMORTGAGEFINANCINGFANNIEMAEANDFREDDIEMAC,ANDVARIOUSGIGANTICCOMMERCIALANDINVESTMENTBANKSANDFINANCECOMPANIESTHECREEPINGDRE

12、ADISTHATPREVIOUSRESCUEPOLICIESHADINDUCEDTHEMORALHAZARDTHATMADETHE200809CRISISNOTONLYINEVITABLEBUTALSOFARWORSEINSCALETHANTHEECONOMICDISRUPTIONSTHATHADCOMEBEFOREANDTHATTHE200809RESCUEWILLINDUCEADISASTERWORSESTILLTHEFINANCIALHISTORIANCHARLESKINDLEBERGER,INHISCLASSICMANIAS,PANICS,ANDCRASHES,HADITRIGHTMO

13、RETHAN30YEARSAGOWHENHEDESCRIBED“THEMORALHAZARDTHATTHEMOREINTERVENTIONISTTHEAUTHORITIESAREWITHRESPECTTOTHECURRENTCRISIS,THEMOREINTENSETHENEXTBUBBLEWILLBE,BECAUSEMANYOFTHEMARKETPARTICIPANTSWILLBELIEVETHATTHEIRPOSSIBLELOSSESWILLBELIMITEDBYGOVERNMENTMEASURES“HOWMUCHMORALHAZARDISSLOSHINGAROUNDTHEWORLDTHA

14、TCANTBEMEASURED,BUTPETERLBERNSTEIN,ONEOFTHEGREATHISTORIANSOFECONOMICRISK,WROTEINJUNE“THEMORALHAZARDIMPOSEDONTHESYSTEMINRECENTMONTHSISTRULYMINDBOGGLINGINSCALEANDSCOPEACROSSTHEGLOBETHEBANKSANDINSURERSWHOSEERRORSOFJUDGMENTCREATEDTHEBUBBLESHAVEBEENBAILEDOUTWITHOUTHESITATION“BERNSTEIN,WHODIEDINJUNEAT91,W

15、ROTETHOSEWORDSINASHORTMANUSCRIPTPUBLISHEDPOSTHUMOUSLYBYTHEHARVARDBUSINESSREVIEWHEARGUEDNOTJUSTTHATTHEREISAGREATDEALOFMORALHAZARDAROUNDBUTALSOTHAT,UNLIKEINTHEPAST,FEWPEOPLESEEMWORRIEDABOUTITHEWASCERTAINLYALONELYVOICE“IAMDISTURBED,“HEWROTE,“BYTHEALMOSTCOMPLETEABSENCEOFADISSENTINGCONSERVATIVEVIEW“THATI

16、S,THEVIEWTHAT“OVERPROTECTEDNESSONTHEPARTOFGOVERNMENTOFFICIALSONLYENCOURAGEDMORERECKLESSRISKTAKING“POLICYMAKERSHAVERESPONDEDTHATTHEYHAD,ANDHAVE,NOCHOICE“THEPROBLEMWEHAVEISTHATINAFINANCIALCRISIS,IFYOULETTHEBIGFIRMSCOLLAPSEINADISORDERLYWAY,THEYLLBRINGDOWNTHEWHOLESYSTEM,“BENBERNANKE,THECURRENTFEDCHAIRMA

17、N,SAIDINJULY“WHENTHEELEPHANTFALLSDOWN,ALLTHEGRASSGETSCRUSHEDASWELL“PRESIDENTOBAMASOWNFAVORITEMETAPHORISTHEBURNINGHOUSETHEFIRECOULDNOTBEALLOWEDSIMPLYTOBURNITSELFOUT,BECAUSETHEFLAMESMIGHTJUMPTOTHENEXTHOUSEANDTHENEXTSOGOVERNMENT,ATWHATEVERCOST,HADTODOUSETHEFLAMESANDSTOPTHECONTAGIONEVENIFITSACTIONSWOULD

18、ENCOURAGEPEOPLETOBUILDFIRETRAPSANDSMOKECIGARETTESINBEDOBAMASWASAPOLICYVERYDIFFERENTFROMWHATTREASURYSECRETARYANDREWMELLONPRESCRIBEDANDHISPRESIDENT,HERBERTHOOVER,REJECTEDFORTHEGREATDEPRESSION“LIQUIDATELABOR,LIQUIDATESTOCKS,LIQUIDATETHEFARMERS,LIQUIDATEREALESTATE“LIQUIDATELEHMANBROTHERSTHAT,ITTURNEDOUT

19、,WASOKBUTWHATGOVERNMENTWOULDHAVETHECOURAGETOLETGENERALMOTORSFAILORCITIGROUPWILYPOLICYMAKERSRECOGNIZEMORALHAZARD,BUTLIKEWILYHEALTHINSURERS,THEYTHINKTHEYHAVEAWAYTOMITIGATEITINAMAY2008SPEECH,BERNANKESAIDCENTRALBANKSFACEATRADEOFFWHENDECIDINGTOPROVIDEEXTRAORDINARYLIQUIDITYSUPPORTIFMARKETPARTICIPANTSCOMET

20、OBELIEVETHATTHEFEDERALRESERVEOROTHERCENTRALBANKSWILLTAKESUCHMEASURESWHENEVERFINANCIALSTRESSDEVELOPS,FINANCIALINSTITUTIONSANDTHEIRCREDITORSWOULDHAVELESSINCENTIVETOPURSUESUITABLESTRATEGIESFORMANAGINGLIQUIDITYRISKANDMOREINCENTIVETOTAKESUCHRISKSLATELY,OFCOURSE,THEFEDHASTAKENSUCHMEASURESBUTINTHATMAY2008S

21、PEECH,BERNANKETOLDUSNOTTOWORRY,THEREWASANANSWERTHEPROBLEMOFMORALHAZARDCANPERHAPSBEMOSTEFFECTIVELYADDRESSEDBYPRUDENTIALSUPERVISIONANDREGULATIONTHATENSURESTHATFINANCIALINSTITUTIONSMANAGETHEIRLIQUIDITYRISKSEFFECTIVELYINADVANCEOFTHECRISISATTHETIMEBERNANKESPOKE,OFCOURSE,THEDOWJONESINDUSTRIALAVERAGEWASFLO

22、ATINGALONGAT12,900,ANDTHEFEDHADJUSTPUMPEDEMERGENCYCASHINTOBEARSTEAMSASPARTOFITSFORCEDSALETOJPMORGANCHASETHEREWASSTILLWIDESPREADFAITHTHATTHEFORMULAOF“EXTRAORDINARYLIQUIDITYSUPPORT“PLUS“PRUDENTIALREGULATION“COULDOVERCOMEANYPROBLEMSCAUSEDBYMORALHAZARDCLEARLY,THEFORMULADIDNTWORKNORSHOULDWEHAVEEXPECTEDIT

23、TOFORTHEDIRTYLITTLESECRETISTHATREGULATIONCANENHANCEMORALHAZARD,NOTDAMPENITWHENPEOPLEEXPECTREGULATIONSTOPROTECTTHEM,THEYLOSETHEINCENTIVETOPROTECTTHEMSELVESCANREGULATORSADEQUATELYPOLICETHE8,400BANKSTHATAREINSUREDBYTHEFEDERALDEPOSITINSURANCECORPORATIONOFCOURSENOTNORCANTHESECURITIESANDEXCHANGECOMMISSION

24、SECPROTECTINVESTORSAGAINSTFRAUDASARTHURLEVITT,THELONGESTSERVINGCHAIRMANINTHEHISTORYOFTHESEC,PUTSIT,“AVERYSKILLFULCRIMINALCANALMOSTALWAYSOUTFOXTHEREGULATORORTHEOVERSEER“WHENINVESTORSRELYONREGULATORS,THEYLETTHEIROWNGUARDSDOWNANDAREMORELIKELYTOMAKEMISTAKESINREJECTINGSELFRELIANCEINFAVOROFCONFIDENCEINGOV

25、ERNMENT,INVESTORSDISREGARDACTIONSTHATWILLTRULYPROTECTTHEMLIKEDIVERSIFYINGTHEIRPORTFOLIOSORJUSTUSINGTHEIROWNGOODCOMMONSENSEREGULATIONSCANNOTPROTECTAGAINSTEVERYCONTINGENCYTOECHOTHEOPENINGLINEOFANNAKARENINA,EACHPERIODOFFINANCIALEXCESSISEXCESSIVEINITSOWNWAYFINANCIALREGULATORSARETOOBUSYPROTECTINGAGAINSTT

26、HELASTDISASTERTOTHINKABOUTTHENEXTONEANDBUSINESSES,ESPECIALLYTHOSEINTHEFINANCIALSECTOR,APPLYHIGHPRICEDBRAINPOWERTOFINDINGWAYSTOEVADEREGULATIONTHROUGHMEANSSUCHASTHEOFFBALANCESHEETPARTNERSHIPSTHATMADEITAPPEARASTHOUGHENRONWASNOTGOINGBANKRUPTONLYTENSOFMILLIONSOFINVESTORSCANAPPLYTHENECESSARYVIGILANCEFOREF

27、FECTIVEDETERRENCEBUTIFTHOSEINVESTORSTHINKTHATTHEYREBEINGPROTECTEDBYTHESECORTHEFTCORTHENEWCONSUMERFINANCIALPROTECTIONAGENCYTHATOBAMAWANTSTOCREATE,THEYGROWCOMPLACENTOR,WORSE,FEELTHEYHAVELICENSETOENGAGEINRISKYBEHAVIORTHEMSELVESIFTHEFDICISINSURINGMYBANKDEPOSITS,ICANAFFORDTOTAKEAFLIERINPENNYGOLDMININGSTO

28、CKSTHEECONOMISTSAMPELTZMANOFTHEUNIVERSITYOFCHICAGOFIRSTRECOGNIZEDTHISPHENOMENONIN1975THE“PELTZMANEFFECT“HOLDSTHATPEOPLEOFTENREACTTOSAFETYREGULATIONSBYINCREASINGTHEIRRISKYBEHAVIORALAWREQUIRINGSEATBELTUSE,FOREXAMPLE,LEADSTOANINCREASEINSPEEDING“THEGREATERPROTECTION,“WROTEPELTZMAN,“HADREDUCEDTHEPRICEOFR

29、ISKYDRIVINGBYREDUCINGTHECONSEQUENCESYOUCOULDEXPECTIFYOUGOTINTOANACCIDENT“SOPEOPLEFOUNDTHEIRRISKSSOMEWHEREELSEISREGULATIONFUTILENOTCOMPLETELY,BUTIFPOLICIESINCREASEMORALHAZARDANDPROMOTEDANGEROUSLYRISKYBEHAVIORBYBUSINESSES,YOUCANTEXPECTREGULATIONTOBALANCETHEADVERSEEFFECTSABETTERAPPROACHMIGHTBETERMEDORG

30、ANICWEMUSTFINDWAYSTOMAKESENSIBLERISKAVERSIONSECONDNATURE,INGRAINED,REFLEXIVEONEANTIDOTEWOULDBETOINCREASETHEPERSONALEXPOSUREOFFINANCIALRISKTAKERSTHATEXPOSUREWASGREATLYREDUCEDSTARTINGIN1981RIGHTBEFORETHEMORALHAZARDPROBLEMBEGANTOBURGEONWITHTHELATINAMERICAN“DEBTBOMB“ECONOMICCRISISWHENWALLSTREETSINVESTME

31、NTFIRMS,STARTINGWITHSALOMONBROTHERS,SWITCHEDFROMBEINGORGANIZEDASPARTNERSHIPSTOBECOMINGCORPORATIONSAFTERARULINGBYTHENEWYORKSTOCKEXCHANGEMADETHATPOSSIBLEINAPARTNERSHIP,THEOWNERSAREONTHEHOOKPERSONALLYFORTHEFIRMSLIABILITIESINACORPORATION,THEPERSONALHOLDINGSOFOWNERSAREWALLEDOFFFROMTHERISKSTHEYTAKETOBESUR

32、E,THECORPORATIONWASAGREATINVENTIONAFTERALL,WEWANTENTREPRENEURSTOTAKERISKSWITHOUTCORPORATIONSANDBANKRUPTCY,FORTHATMATTERTHE“ANIMALSPIRITS“THATJOHNMAYNARDKEYNESRECOGNIZEDASCRITICALTOECONOMICGROWTHWOULDBESUPPRESSEDACADEMICRESEARCHHASFOUND,FORINSTANCE,THATSTATESWITHTHEMOSTFORGIVINGBANKRUPTCYLAWSAREHOMET

33、OTHEMOSTENTREPRENEURIALACTIVITYBUTFINANCEISDIFFERENTTHEEXTERNALEFFECTSOFABANKSFAILUREARENOTNEARLYSOTERRIBLEASOBAMASFIREMETAPHORMAKESTHEMSEEM,BUTTHEYAREFARWORSETHAN,SAY,ARETAILERSHUTTINGITSDOORSKEVINDOWD,ANECONOMISTWHOSPECIALIZESINRISKMANAGEMENT,WROTERECENTLYABOUTTHEBANKINGCRISISINTHECATOJOURNAL,“THE

34、ROOTPROBLEMISLIMITEDLIABILITY,WHICHALLOWSINVESTORSANDEXECUTIVESTHEFULLUPSIDEBENEFITOFTHEIRRISKTAKING,WHILELIMITINGTHEIRDOWNSIDEEXPOSURE“DOWDQUOTEDADAMSMITHSWARNINGABOUTCORPORATIONSINTHEWEALTHOFNATIONSTHEDIRECTORSOFSUCHCOMPANIESBEINGTHEMANAGERSOFOTHERPEOPLESMONEYTHANTHEIROWN,ITCANNOTWELLBEEXPECTEDTHA

35、TTHEYSHOULDWATCHOVERITWITHTHESAMEANXIOUSVIGILANCENEGLIGENCEMUSTALWAYSPREVAIL,MOREORLESS,INTHEMANAGEMENTOFSUCHACOMPANYIFTHEMANAGERSOFBEARSTEARNSHADBEENREQUIREDTOBEOWNERS,ANDIFTHEYHADFACEDLOSINGTHEIRBANKACCOUNTS,THEIRCARS,ANDTHEIRSECONDHOMES,THENTHEYWOULDHAVEBEENFARLESSLIKELYTOTAKEENORMOUSRISKSIN,FORI

36、NSTANCE,SUBPRIMEMORTGAGESECURITIESANOTHEREXAMPLEOFTHEORGANICAPPROACHWOULDBETOREDUCE,RATHERTHANINCREASE,GOVERNMENTSROLEINPROTECTINGCONSUMERSCONSIDERFEDERALDEPOSITINSURANCE,WHICHWASINSTITUTEDIN1934TOPREVENTRUNSONBANKSORIGINALLY,DEPOSITSWEREINSUREDUPTO10,000TODAYTHELIMITIS250,000INPRACTICE,ASKINDLEBERG

37、ERPOINTSOUT,THEFEDERALGOVERNMENTPROTECTSALLDEPOSITORSININSUREDBANKSTHEEFFECT,HEWRITES,ISTHATINSURANCE“ENCOURAGEDBANKSTOMAKERISKIERLOANSSINCETHEYWERECONFIDENTTHATTHEYWEREPROTECTEDAGAINSTRUNSIFTHESELOANSPROVEDPROFITABLE,THEOWNERSOFTHEBANKSWOULDBENEFIT“IFTHEGOVERNMENTCUTTHELIMITONINSURANCETO,SAY,20,000

38、,THATSINGLEACTWOULDSENDASTRONGSIGNALTOCONSUMERSPUTYOURMONEYINASTRONGBANKRATHERTHANAWEAKONEANDTOBANKERSSHOREUPYOURBALANCESHEETORYOUWONTGETDEPOSITSTHATTHISISNOTLIKELYTOHAPPEN,TOPUTITMILDLY,HASNOTHINGTODOWITHWHETHERITSHOULDHAPPENTHEBESTWAYTODAMPENMORALHAZARD,HOWEVER,ISFORPOLITICIANSANDREGULATORSTORESIS

39、TTHEURGETOACT,ACT,ACTTHEYDOHAVETOMAINTAINCONFIDENCEINFINANCIALMARKETS,BUTTHATCONFIDENCEISBEINGUNDERMINEDBYREPEATEDECONOMICCRISESTHATARECAUSED,INLARGEPART,BYTHEEXPECTATIONS“BADASTHEINCREASEDDEBTANDSUBVERSIONOFTHEFEDMAYBE,”BERNSTEINWROTE,“THEIRIMPACTONOURECONOMICWELLBEINGPALESINCOMPARISONWITHWHATCOULD

40、HAPPENIFTHEBAILOUTSLESSENOURAVERSIONTORISK“ATTHEVERYLEAST,POLICYMAKERSNEEDTOTAKEMORALHAZARDINALLITSPERMUTATIONSINTOTHEIRCALCULATIONSTHEYDIDSOINTHEPASTBERNSTEINREFERSTOTHE“HUEANDCRY“THATUSEDTOARISEWHEN“GOVERNMENTSTOOKSTEPSTOCUSHIONTHEADVERSECONSEQUENCESOFBUBBLESFORPARTICULARCOMPANIESORSECTORSOFTHEECO

41、NOMY“TODAYALARMSAREBEINGRAISEDABOUTCOSTBUTABOUTTHEIMPACTONBEHAVIORTHEREISBARELYAPEEPINFACT,THEREISBLITHEINDIFFERENCETOTHEFUTUREEFFECTSOFTODAYSPOLICIESANDAKINDOFSMUGCONGRATULATORYAIRREDOLENTOFTHAT1999TIMEMAGAZINECOVERCELEBRATINGTHECOMMITTEETOSAVETHEWORLD“THEFIREISOUTNOW,“SAIDPRESIDENTOBAMAINJULY,REVE

42、RTINGTOHISECONOMICMETAPHORPERHAPSBUTTHEEMBERSARESTILLGLOWING,WAITINGFORTHENEXTGUSTOFWINDORDOSEOFKEROSENETOIGNITETHEM资料来源PRESIDENTOFTHEWORLDGROWTHINSTITUTEJ2009（2）P2832译文道德风险的危害干预去挽救经济可能危及到它詹姆斯哥拉斯曼当有人让你对一个恶性事件的结果投保，奇怪的是，这会更加激励你用某中行为方式触发该事件。因此，如果你的钻石戒指有5万美元的保险，你更可能把它放在保险箱外。经济学家称这种现象为“道德风险”，如果你看看周围，你会看

43、到这种现象无处不在。“当汽车购买了碰撞保险，例如，某人更可能在一个冰冷的夜晚出来，”哈佛大学经济学家理查德泽克豪泽写道“美国联邦存款保险使得储蓄贷款协会更愿意承担风险的贷款。联邦洪水保险补贴金鼓励公民将家建造在被洪水淹没的平原上。1963年诺贝尔经济学奖得主肯尼思阿罗，恰好是奥巴马总统的首席经济顾问萨默斯的叔叔，美国经济评论杂志写了题为“不确定性和医疗保险的经济学”的文章。肯尼思阿罗努力地辩证大规模增加健康保险，即使政府支持很困难，但他也承认，健康保险有导致道德风险的危险。理想情况下的保险，阿罗写到，是“反对保险个别失控”谁是被保险人，就像说，针对损害的保险像流星撞击到你的房子。在医疗方面，被

44、保险人（尤其是如果保费由雇主支付）有更大的诱因冒着他们的健康风险，例如，比不得不自己支付肺癌治疗费用的人吸更多的烟。最危险的一种道德风险是不明确的保险政策（哪一条，终究，保险人可以提高保费），但有暗示的。如果你的孩子认为你将他保释出狱或和法官解决好问题，即使他被逮捕，那么他会更容易酒后驾车。从更广泛，在戒酒的行话来说，你的行为将被称为“可以”。通过挽救醉酒者的影响效果来看，你是鼓励他喝酒，因为他料定下一次你会救他的。在过去三十年来，世界一直在就在这个充斥着一种道德风险，因为政府也越来越善于经济救助，就像艺术家赢得了把世界从深渊拉回来的赞誉。考虑了三个政府官员，当时的库务局副局长萨默斯,他在财政

45、部的上司罗伯特鲁宾和美联储主席艾伦格林斯潘，从1999年2月15日，涵盖的时间，他们被称为，不带讽刺，“委员会拯救世界。”国际货币基金组织和世界银行，这三方，我们被告知，避免了全球灾害，已经把目光从泰国蒸发的泰铢，俄罗斯债券违约，以及接近崩溃的长期资本管理公司（一个巨大的格林威治，康涅狄格，对冲基金，由两次获得诺贝尔奖的经济学家共同创办）。几年后，美联储主席出来再一次挽救世界，通过911之后的大幅度降低利率，该过程在华尔街称为格林斯潘措施。自1987年股市崩盘、199091年开始的的海湾战争，1994年墨西哥金融危机，90年代末的亚洲和俄罗斯动荡，以及在2000年的科技泡沫破灭，美联储已经抽流

46、动性资金（即，现有资金）进入金融体系，通过维持股票价格上涨来挽救大震荡中的投资者。因此，投资者开始相信，如果他们买股票，美联储为他们提供一个隐含的认沽期权，而风雨同舟地保护其股票的价格。“有一种感觉，在市场参与者可能认为有缓冲垫即使事情变得糟糕”美联储前研究部主任迈克尔普雷尔在一篇金融时报的头条中说，“格林斯潘措施将可能会鼓励自满。”这一天是2000年12月8日。八年后，全球经济面临贷款机构不顾借款人信用好坏借贷所造成的危机。作为回应，政府制定的政策，使得时间委员会努力拯救世界，这似乎有点奇怪。在委员会的鼎盛时期，亚洲人得到了400亿美元的帮助，俄罗斯230亿美元，而格林威治对冲基金都是40亿

47、美元。但在2008年和2009年，只有同一国家的两个项目，美国的纾困计划（TARP）和经济刺激计划获得了共同总额超过15万亿美元的资金。与此同时,美联储将短期利率调降至零,白宫和国会决定拯救国家最大的保险公司美国国际集团,即AIG,其规模最大、第二大汽车制造商通用和克莱斯勒,它的两个最大的抵押贷款融资供应商（房利美和房地美），和各种巨大的商业银行和投资银行和财务公司。潜在的危机是先钱的挽救政策导致的道德风险使200809年度的危机不仅无可避免,但也更糟糕的经济破坏程度,同事200809年度救援成为一场更糟的灾难。金融历史学家查尔斯金德尔伯格,以他的经典狂热，恐慌和崩溃，一直是对30多年前他描绘

48、的“道德风险当局越干预当前的危机，越激烈的泡沫将会形成,因为许多市场参与者会相信他们可能的损失会受限于政府措施”。道德危险会如何搅动世界那是不可测量的,但彼得伯恩斯坦,一位伟大的经济风险的历史学家,在6月写到“最近几个月道德风险对系统的影响规模和范围真是难以想象的。世界各地的银行业和保险业的错误判断已经造就了泡沫毫不犹豫地破裂。”91年6月去世的伯恩斯坦,写的这些话,在哈佛商业评论刊登的很短的遗稿。他认为不仅仅是有很大的道德风险在四周,而且是不同以往的,似乎很少有人担心。他确实一个孤独的声音。“我很不安,”他写道,“几乎完全没有不同于保守主义的观点”,也就是说,认为“部分政府官员的过度保护主义

49、只是鼓励更加不顾后果。政策制定者已作出回应说，他们已别无选择。“我们的问题是，在金融危机中，如果你让大企业以一个无序的方式崩溃，他们就会降低整个系统，”本伯南克，现任美联储主席，今年7月说道。“当大象倒下，所有的草也变得粉碎。”奥巴马总统自己最喜欢的比喻是燃烧着的房子火焰不能简单地自行消亡，因为火焰可能会跳到下一个房子，下一个。因此，政府，必须不惜一切代价，扑灭火焰，停止传染，即使其行动将鼓励人们建造无消防措施的房屋和在床上抽烟。奥巴马的政策是一个很大的不同，相比较财政部长安德鲁梅隆（和他的总统赫伯特胡佛，所拒绝的）对大萧条的规定“清算劳工，清算股票，清算农民，清算房地产。”清算雷曼兄弟结果证明，是正确的，但是政府有没有勇气让通用汽车失败或花旗集团狡猾的决策者认识到道德风险，但像老谋深算的健康保险公司，他们认为自己有办法来缓和它。伯南克在2008年5月的讲话中说央行面临一个权衡即什么时候决定提供非凡的流动性资金支持如果市场参与者开始相信美联储或其他央行将采取措施在金融压力显现时，金融机构及其债权人没有多少动力去追求管理清算风险和更大的动力采取适当的战略风险。近来，当然，美联储已采取这类措施。但在2008年5月讲话说伯南克告诉我们不用担心，有一个答案道德风险问题也许可以最有效地审慎监管和调控，确保金融机构在危机中积极管理促进他们有效地解决