产业结构与经济稳定【外文翻译】.doc

1、1本科毕业论文外文翻译外文文献译文标题产业结构与经济稳定资料来源TAYLOR；ISMIHAN，2005；BEKAERT等，2006）。它是有关这方面的一些研究（DAVIS和HALTIWANGER，1992；ROB，1995，DAVIS等，1996）发现，在规模较小的公司工作往往没有在大公司工作长久；ILMAKUNNAS等（2005）曾建议，这样的营业额实际上可能是生产率增长更快的原因之一，言外之意是，企业越小，就业和收入的不稳定性可能越高（“营业额假说”）。相反，不同的决策者由于人类容易犯错的缺点可能会导致更集中的决策过程中更复杂的经济表现（SAH，1991；SAH和STIGLITZ，1991

2、；ALMEIDA和FERREIRA，2002），表明一个地方的企业平均规模越小或数量越多，其经济可能会表现出更大的稳定性。类似的结果预测集中的决策过程是成功的管理冲突和分配冲突削弱了有效的调整外生冲击的程度（RODRIK，1999；ALMEIDA和FERREIRA，2002）。鉴于这些对比考虑，建立规模和产业结构等措施是否可以系统地与经济表现的二阶矩措施相联系起来成为重要的经验问题。本文据此提出初步证明产业结构和当地的收入和就业增长率的不稳定性之间的联系的措施。我们使用三项关于产业结构的措施，每一项由广泛部门来区分。就如SHAFFER（2002）指出的，我们通过员工人数，美元的增加值以及出货量

3、或收据来衡量机构平均规模。我们也出于两个对立的考虑期待人均场所。找到一份新工作，应该比在有越来越多的雇主的市场的部门工作更容易，这导致收入和就业率（“就业选配假说”）的具有较为稳定的水平。但是，其他条件不变，规模较小的公司往往会允许并存的大型企业将营业额记录在小企业（如上所述），这种情况往往会抵消更多的众多企业的稳定利益。产业结构的措施都被单独编译为制造业，2批发，零售和服务行业。我们将这些措施的结构和两个二阶矩措施的经济表现联系起来，即每年的人均实际收入增长率SD和总编制就业的年增长率SD。结果对文学的两个单独的支流，增长的波动性的实证协变量，宏观经济的影响对产业结构的进一步措施和规模的建立

4、都产生了贡献。我们发现，对于所有部门规模较大的企业和机构具有更稳定的人均就业增长率，与营业额和就业选配假设一致。类似的联系也有发现一些，但并非所有行业方面人均收入的不稳定性增长率都有涉及。II结果表1报告了人均实际收入增长率的SD回归估计，表2则为就业增长率的SD报告估计。产业结构分别对四个部门使用三种测量方式，每个表报告12次回归。由于在每一个部门的几个县建立的数据出现丢失或为零，各种回归的使用略有不同意见，详细情况见表。显着性水平由SES纠正异方差计算出。表1中，各种结构的措施在12次回归结果中表现明显，可见制造业人均收入增长比较稳定，批发及零售机构雇用较多的工人，批发机构的大小由年出货量

5、的价值来衡量。这些研究结果与上面讨论的营业额假设相一致。相反，雇用工人越少的批发机构，或在批发场所越少的县，以及人均或人均制造业机构越多，增长越稳定。批发业的对比估计可能反映非线性关系的基础，这是研究范围之外的问题。这些结果表明，产业结构系统关系到收入增长率的不稳定性，这在很大程度上是一致的，但是，在主要行业中有所不同。表1中的方程的拟合是温和的，R范围从03调整到近05。控制变量大多显著在001水平。最初的家庭收入中位数永远不会显著，BEKAERT等（2006）提出的关于初期的人均国内生产总值在一些相关性回归的基础上体现出消费增长的不稳定性。收入在人口越多的县增长越稳定。人口密度和教育会提高

6、人均收入增长率的不稳定性，当人均批发机构受到控制时，教育会失去其意义。BEKAERT等（2006）人在相关性回归的基础上提出了教育变量对比的标志。表2中，各种结构的措施在12次回归表现中表现明显。可见在任何四个部门，人均机构越多，就业增长越稳定，这与工作匹配假说相一致。此外，批发或服务机构雇用的工人越多，零售或服务机构美元的平均业务量越大，就业增长越稳定，这与营业额的假设一致。这些后者的研究结果表明，越是集中的决策下，大公司工作寿命的利3益越多，如理论上所提出越不稳定。表1中的方程的拟合更加紧密，将R调整了01左右。人口密度一直不如其他控制变量显着。其中人口越多，教育程度越高，或在最初家庭收入

7、越低的县就，其业增长越稳定。人口的结果与上述讨论的就业选配的假设是一致的，BEKAERT等（2006）在消费增长的波动性的相关性回归基础上得出了教育和初始收入结果相匹配的结果。如表1，当人均批发机构受到控制时，教育就会失去其意义。III结论出于产业结构与经济稳定的重要预测的对比结果，我们已经研究了多个有经验的部门的具体结构措施，也进一步研究了人均实际收入和就业增长率的波动之间的联系。可以明显看出三分之二的指标显示了环境变量的标志。整体而言，营业额假设是基于主导低效的集中决策的对比预测，由于就业和收入而更加稳定增长的地方机构数量较大。这些研究结果表明也证明了SHAFFER（2002，2006A，

8、B）提出的机构规模的第一时刻成本抵销效益理论。就业选配假设是和越来越多机构的人均运作的稳定增长，如各界人士的就业收入和制造业的回归相一致的。这一对比结果是建立在就业人数和大量机构的人均运作测量的收入回归模型基础之上的。我们多年的滞后结构降低了产业结构和增长的波动性之间反向因果关系的可能性，并且这种因果关系不能被确切地证实，这是所有的以观察或实验为根据的发展研究的一个共同缺点。因此，需要谨慎地制定政策及推行，以待更加精确的研究和观察。4外文文献原文TITLEINDUSTRIALSTRUCTUREANDECONOMICSTABILITYMATERIALSOURCETAYLORLEVINEETAL,

9、2000FORPROMINENTEXAMPLESONERECENTDISCOVERYISTHATCOMMUNITIESORLOCALREGIONSTENDTOEXPERIENCEMORERAPIDGROWTHOFINCOMEOREMPLOYMENTWHEREBUSINESSESARESMALLERSHAFFER,2002,2006A,BASEPARATESTRANDOFRESEARCH,MEANWHILE,HASDEMONSTRATEDTHEIMPORTANCEOFSTUDYINGTHEVOLATILITYOFGROWTHRATESRATHERTHANMERELYTHEIRMEANSRAMEY

10、ANDRAMEY,1995KURZ,2004ISMIHAN,2005BEKAERTETAL,2006ITISRELEVANTINTHISREGARDTHATSEVERALSTUDIESDAVISANDHALTIWANGER,1992ROB,1995DAVISETAL,1996HAVEFOUNDTHATJOBSATSMALLERFIRMSTENDTOBELESSPERMANENTTHANATLARGERFIRMSWHILEILMAKUNNASETAL2005HAVESUGGESTEDTHATSUCHTURNOVERMAYACTUALLYBEONEREASONFORFASTERPRODUCTIVI

11、TYGROWTH,ANUNEXPLOREDIMPLICATIONISTHATTHEVOLATILITYOFEMPLOYMENTANDINCOMEMAYBEHIGHERWHEREBUSINESSESARESMALLERTHETURNOVERHYPOTHESISCONVERSELY,HETEROGENEITYAMONGDECISIONMAKERSDUETOHUMANFALLIBILITYCANRESULTINGREATERVARIABILITYOFECONOMICPERFORMANCEINMORECENTRALIZEDDECISIONPROCESSESSAH,1991SAHANDSTIGLITZ,

12、1991ALMEIDAANDFERREIRA,2002,POSSIBLYSUGGESTINGTHATALOCALECONOMYMAYEXHIBITGREATERSTABILITYWHERETHEAVERAGEFIRMSARESMALLERORMORENUMEROUSASIMILAROUTCOMEISPREDICTEDTOTHEEXTENTTHATACENTRALIZEDDECISIONPROCESSESARELESSSUCCESSFULATMANAGINGCONFLICTANDBDISTRIBUTIONALCONFLICTSIMPAIREFFICIENTADJUSTMENTSTOEXOGENO

13、USSHOCKSRODRIK,1999ALMEIDAANDFERREIRA,2002INVIEWOFTHESECONTRASTINGCONSIDERATIONS,ANIMPORTANTEMPIRICALQUESTIONISWHETHERESTABLISHMENTSIZEANDOTHERMEASURESOFINDUSTRIALSTRUCTUREMAYBESYSTEMATICALLYASSOCIATEDWITHSECONDMOMENTMEASURESOFECONOMICPERFORMANCETHISARTICLEACCORDINGLYPRESENTSPRELIMINARYEVIDENCEOFLIN

14、KAGESBETWEENSELECTEDMEASURESOFINDUSTRIALSTRUCTUREANDTHEVOLATILITYOFLOCALINCOMEANDEMPLOYMENTGROWTHRATESWEUSETHREEMEASURESOF5INDUSTRIALSTRUCTURE,EACHDISTINGUISHEDBYBROADSECTORASINSHAFFER2002,WEMEASUREAVERAGEESTABLISHMENTSIZEBYNUMBEROFEMPLOYEESAND,ALTERNATIVELY,BYDOLLARSOFVALUEADDED,SHIPMENTSORRECEIPTS

15、WEALSOLOOKATESTABLISHMENTSPERCAPITA,MOTIVATEDBYTWOOPPOSINGCONSIDERATIONSFINDINGANEWJOBSHOULDBEEASIERINAMARKETWITHMOREEMPLOYERSINAGIVENSECTOR,LEADINGTOMORESTABLELEVELSORGROWTHRATESOFINCOMEANDEMPLOYMENTTHEJOBMATCHINGHYPOTHESISBUT,CETERISPARIBUS,SMALLERFIRMSWILLTENDTOPERMITTHECOEXISTENCEOFLARGERNUMBERS

16、OFFIRMS,INWHICHCASETHEDOCUMENTEDEMPLOYMENTTURNOVERATSMALLERFIRMSDISCUSSEDABOVEWILLTENDTOOFFSETTHESTABILIZINGBENEFITOFMORENUMEROUSFIRMSEACHOFOURMEASURESOFINDUSTRIALSTRUCTUREISCOMPILEDSEPARATELYFORTHEMANUFACTURING,WHOLESALE,RETAILANDSERVICESECTORSWERELATETHESEMEASURESOFSTRUCTURETOTWOSECONDMOMENTMEASUR

17、ESOFECONOMICPERFORMANCE,THESDOFANNUALREALPERCAPITAINCOMEGROWTHRATESANDTHESDOFTHEANNUALGROWTHRATEOFTOTALESTABLISHMENTEMPLOYMENTTHERESULTSCONTRIBUTETOTWOSEPARATESTRANDSOFTHELITERATURE,ONEMPIRICALCOVARIATESWITHGROWTHVOLATILITYANDONMACROECONOMICEFFECTSOFESTABLISHMENTSIZEANDTHERMEASURESOFINDUSTRIALSTRUCT

18、UREWEFINDFORALLSECTORSTHATLARGERESTABLISHMENTSANDMOREESTABLISHMENTSPERCAPITAAREASSOCIATEDWITHMORESTABLEEMPLOYMENTGROWTHRATES,CONSISTENTWITHTHETURNOVERANDJOBMATCHINGHYPOTHESESTHESAMELINKAGESAREFOUNDFORSOMEBUTNOTALLOFTHESECTORSWITHREGARDTOTHEVOLATILITYOFGROWTHRATESINREALPERCAPITAINCOMEIIIRESULTSTABLE1

19、REPORTSTHEREGRESSIONESTIMATESFORTHESDOFREALPERCAPITAINCOMEGROWTHRATES,WHILETABLE2REPORTSESTIMATESFORTHESDOFEMPLOYMENTGROWTHRATESASINDUSTRIALSTRUCTUREISMEASUREDINTHREEWAYSFOREACHOFFOURSECTORS,EACHTABLEREPORTS12REGRESSIONSDUETOMISSINGORZEROESTABLISHMENTDATAFORAFEWCOUNTIESINEACHSECTOR,THEVARIOUSREGRESS

20、IONSUTILIZESLIGHTLYDIFFERINGNUMBERSOFOBSERVATIONS,ASREPORTEDINTHETABLESTHESIGNIFICANCELEVELSARECOMPUTEDFROMSESCORRECTEDFORHETEROSCEDASTICITYINTABLE1,THEVARIOUSSTRUCTUREMEASURESARESTATISTICALLYSIGNIFICANTINEIGHTOFTHE12REGRESSIONSPERCAPITAINCOMEISFOUNDTOGROWMORESTEADILYWHEREMANUFACTURING,RETAILANDWHOL

21、ESALEESTABLISHMENTSEMPLOYMOREWORKERS,ORWHEREWHOLESALEESTABLISHMENTSARE6LARGERASMEASUREDBYVALUEOFANNUALSHIPMENTSTHESEFINDINGSARECONSISTENTWITHTHETURNOVERHYPOTHESISDISCUSSEDABOVECONVERSELY,STEADIERGROWTHISSEENWHEREWHOLESALEESTABLISHMENTSEMPLOYFEWERWORKERSORINCOUNTIESWITHFEWERWHOLESALEESTABLISHMENTSPER

22、CAPITAORMOREMANUFACTURINGESTABLISHMENTSPERCAPITATHECONTRASTINGESTIMATESFORTHEWHOLESALESECTORMAYREFLECTNONLINEARITIESINTHEUNDERLYINGRELATIONSHIPS,ANISSUEBEYONDTHESCOPEOFTHISSTUDYTHESEFINDINGSINDICATETHATINDUSTRIALSTRUCTUREISSYSTEMATICALLYRELATEDTOTHEVOLATILITYOFINCOMEGROWTHRATES,INWAYSTHATARELARGELYC

23、ONSISTENTBUTTHATDOVARYSOMEWHATACROSSMAJORSECTORSTHEFITOFTHEEQUATIONSINTABLE1ISMODEST,WITHADJUSTEDRRANGINGFROM03TONEARLY05THECONTROLVARIABLESAREMOSTLYSIGNIFICANTATTHE001LEVELINITIALMEDIANHOUSEHOLDINCOMEISNEVERSIGNIFICANT,INCONTRASTTOTHESIGNIFICANCEOFINITIALPERCAPITAGDPFOUNDINSEVERALCROSSCOUNTRYREGRES

24、SIONSONCONSUMPTIONGROWTHVOLATILITYBYBEKAERTETAL2006INCOMEISFOUNDTOGROWMORESTEADILYINMOREPOPULOUSCOUNTIESPOPULATIONDENSITYANDEDUCATIONAREFOUNDTOCONTRIBUTETOHIGHERVOLATILITYOFPERCAPITAINCOMEGROWTHRATES,THOUGHEDUCATIONLOSESITSSIGNIFICANCEWHENTABLE1REGRESSIONESTIMATESDEPENDENTVARIABLESDOFREALANNUALPERCA

25、PITAINCOMEGROWTHRATES,19911995STRUCTUREINTERCEPTSTRUCTURELNPOPVARIABLEVARIABLE7MFGEMPLOYMENT02184206700455274002241900MFGVALUEADDED022012051127E4064002281920WHOLESALEEMPLOYMENT024682187000104589002672103WHOLESALESALES023952121324E4306002512008RETAILEMPLOYMENT022561820801E4179002321626RETAILSALES0239

26、61965570E6090002521806SERVICEEMPLOYMENT022652101507E4204A002321942SERVICEEECEIPTS022272066213E5376002281905MFGESTPERCAPITA02380211586331127002381946WHOLEESTPERCAPITA020471673146291514002111523RETAILESTPERCAPITA02407192402987109002501886SVCESTPERCAPITA02327202805593127002451931DENSITYEDUCATIONINITIAL

27、MEDIANADJR2NUMBEROFHOUSEHOLDINCOMEOBSERVATIONS44E532160E464111E60540313219238E527764E472417E70810311219257E534575E482034E71680354219763E535573E479333E71580346219758E531668E470213E70560341222451E529866E469217E70720346222644E528562E467411E70520330221548E531362E467785E80390330221545E526164E469418E80080

28、375222669E539115E415380E80350482222655E531971E471219E70850347222653E531372E466715E706603472226NOTESWHITEHETEROSCEDASTICCONSISTENTTSTATISTICSINPARENTHESES,SIGNIFICANTATTHE001,A005ORB010LEVEL,TWOTAILTESTSVARIABLESAREDEFINEDINTABLE18TABLE2REGRESSIONESTIMATESDEPENDENTVARIABLESDOFANNUALESTABLISHMENTEMPLO

29、YMENTGROWTHRATES,19911995STRUCTUREINTERCEPTSTRUCTURELNPOPVARIABLEVARIABLEMFGEMPLOYMENT0119413390012207400078852MFGVALUEADDED012031329371E501400079860WHOLESALEEMPLOYMENT01290105862E444000084657WHOLESALESALES01340108949E502800094731RETAILEMPLOYMENT01334114021E404700095681RETAILSALES01314107516E5256A00

30、090668SERVICEEMPLOYMENT014251182375E4201A00104805SERVICERECEIPTS013981156154E5244A00101775MFGESTPERCAPITA0141812052051236A00102836WHOLEESTPERCAPITA014871236345637900113868RETAILESTPERCAPITA0149311550506016900110824SVCESTPERCAPITA0137010860721216800101766DENSITYEDUCATIONINITIALMEDIANADJR2NUMBEROFHOUS

31、EHOLDINCOMEOBSERVATIONS21E513526E434251E7240A0078219223E514425E433949E72330078219273E604629E435660E72570098219711E506529E435261E72580092219736E602322E428755E72620100222460E603725E429668E73000110222630E601826E431266E72840111221563E603826E431068E729401112215936E602327E432269E72960111222651E603114E4140

32、59E7250A0123222669E8000418E417157E72350111222628E601719E419365E728201102226NOTESWHITEHETEROSCEDASTICCONSISTENTTSTATISTICSINPARENTHESES,SIGNIFICANTATTHE001,A005ORB010LEVEL,TWOTAILTESTSVARIABLESAREDEFINEDINTABLE1CONTROLLINGFORWHOLESALEESTABLISHMENTSPERCAPITATHESIGNOFTHEEDUCATIONVARIABLECONTRASTSWITHTH

33、ATFOUNDINCROSSCOUNTRYSPECIFICATIONSBYBEKAERTETAL2006INTABLE2,THEVARIOUSSTRUCTUREMEASURESAREAGAINSTATISTICALLYSIGNIFICANTINEIGHTOFTHE12REGRESSIONSEMPLOYMENTISSEENTOGROWMORESTEADILYWHERETHEREAREMOREESTABLISHMENTSPERCAPITAINANYOFTHEFOURSECTORS,CONSISTENTWITHTHEJOBMATCHINGHYPOTHESISINADDITION,STEADIEREM

34、PLOYMENTGROWTHOCCURREDWHEREWHOLESALEORSERVICEESTABLISHMENTSEMPLOYMOREWORKERS,ORWHERERETAILORSERVICEESTABLISHMENTSHAVEALARGERAVERAGEDOLLARVOLUMEOFBUSINESS,CONSISTENTWITHTHETURNOVERHYPOTHESISTHESELATTERFINDINGSINDICATETHATTHEBENEFITSOFJOBLONGEVITYATLARGERFIRMSMORETHANOFFSETTHEVOLATILITYTHEORETICALLYPR

35、EDICTEDBYMORECENTRALIZEDDECISIONMAKING,ASDISCUSSEDABOVETHEFITOFTHESEEQUATIONSISLESSTIGHTTHANINTABLE1,WITHADJUSTEDRAROUND01POPULATIONDENSITYISNEVERSIGNIFICANTBUTTHEOTHERCONTROLVARIABLESARECONSISTENTLYSIGNIFICANTEMPLOYMENTGROWSMORESTEADILYINMOREPOPULOUSCOUNTIES,WHEREEDUCATIONISHIGHER,ORWHEREINITIALMED

36、IANHOUSEHOLDINCOMEISLOWERTHEPOPULATIONRESULTISCONSISTENTWITHTHEJOBMATCHINGHYPOTHESISDISCUSSEDABOVE,ANDTHEEDUCATIONANDINITIALINCOMERESULTSMATCHTHOSEFOUNDINCROSSCOUNTRYREGRESSIONSFORCONSUMPTIONGROWTHVOLATILITYBYBEKAERTETAL2006ASINTABLE1,EDUCATIONLOSESITSSIGNIFICANCEWHENCONTROLLINGFORWHOLESALEESTABLISH

37、MENTSPERCAPITAIVCONCLUSIONMOTIVATEDBYPRIORRESULTSSUGGESTINGCONTRASTINGANDIMPORTANTPREDICTIONSRELATINGINDUSTRIALSTRUCTURETOECONOMICSTABILITY,WEHAVEEXPLOREDEMPIRICALLINKAGESBETWEENMULTIPLESECTORSPECIFICSTRUCTUREMEASURESANDTHEVOLATILITYOFSUBSEQUENTGROWTHRATESIN10REALPERCAPITAINCOMEANDEMPLOYMENTSIGNIFIC

38、ANTASSOCIATIONSWEREFOUNDINTWOTHIRDSOFTHESPECIFICATIONS,CONTROLLINGFORASTANDARDSETOFENVIRONMENTALVARIABLESOVERALL,THETURNOVERHYPOTHESISWASFOUNDTODOMINATETHECONTRASTINGPREDICTIONSOFINEFFICIENTCENTRALIZEDDECISIONMAKING,ASEMPLOYMENTANDINCOMEBOTHTENDEDTOGROWMORESTEADILYWHEREESTABLISHMENTSWERELARGERTHESEF

39、INDINGSSUGGESTANOFFSETTINGBENEFITTOTHEFIRSTMOMENTCOSTSOFESTABLISHMENTSIZEIDENTIFIEDBYSHAFFER2002,2006A,BTHEJOBMATCHINGHYPOTHESISISCONSISTENTWITHSTEADIERGROWTHWHEREMOREESTABLISHMENTSPERCAPITAOPERATE,ASFOUNDFORALLSECTORSINTHEEMPLOYMENTREGRESSIONSANDFORTHEMANUFACTURINGSECTORINTHEINCOMEREGRESSIONSCONTRA

40、STINGRESULTSWEREFOUNDINTHEINCOMEREGRESSIONSFORWHOLESALEESTABLISHMENTSMEASUREDBYEMPLOYMENTSIZEANDFORWHOLESALEESTABLISHMENTSPERCAPITAALTHOUGHOURMULTIYEARLAGSTRUCTUREREDUCESTHELIKELIHOODOFREVERSECAUSALITYBETWEENINDUSTRIALSTRUCTUREANDGROWTHVOLATILITY,CAUSALITYCANNOTBEDEFINITIVELYESTABLISHED,ASHORTCOMINGCOMMONTOALLEMPIRICALGROWTHSTUDIESCONSEQUENTLY,POLICYINFERENCESSHOULDBEDRAWNWITHCAUTION,PENDINGADDITIONALRESEARCHONTHEPRECISEMECHANISMSUNDERLYINGTHEOBSERVEDPATTERNS