贸易、发展与环境【外文翻译】.doc

1、1本科毕业论文外文翻译外文文献译文标题贸易，发展与环境资料来源经济文献杂志作者BRIANRCOPELAND；MSCOTTTAYLOR1引言在过去的十年间，环保主义者和从事贸易的团体对于贸易自由化对环境的影响展开了激烈的争论。这场争论最先开始于北美自由贸易协定的谈判和关贸总协定的乌拉圭回合，这两者发生的背景均是在大家对全球气候变暖，物种灭绝和工业污染的上升的关注时期。最近几年，它更是被WTO所承认并且建议成为未来的贸易会谈的主要内容。但是争论常常是没有结果的，因为各方对于市场力量的信任程度不同，所以他们对于环境的价值观不同。由于缺乏共同的语言，缺少这方面的经济理论和实证分析，这场争论一直被阻碍。

2、但这并不奇怪，因为许多这方面的研究才刚刚起步。这篇文章的主要目的是研究经济增长和国际贸易的发展对环境产生的影响及后果。我们将通过认真仔细的理论与实证分析来回答以下三个基本的问题。关于国际贸易，经济增长与环境的关系，我们了解多少而这方面的数据如何能帮助我们评估在这领域的争论我们又该何去何从为了回答这些问题，我们将讨论和借助一个相对简单的一般均衡模型，政府政策和私营部门间行为的互动，以确定污染均衡程度的水平。该模型建立在文章的第2节，然后采用多种形式论证。我们使用一个模型来组织我们的文章，反应了一个涵盖范围广泛的主题经济理论需要在指导实证调查，提出替代假说和管理的推论中发挥更大的作用。绝大多数的这

3、一领域的工作经验没有详细的理论基础，我们认为这已经将政策争论给遗忘了，链接上各种理论的相对重要性，是要被重视的。在这一问题上的经济文学分为两波，分别在20世纪70年代和由于激烈的政策争论而引起的利息回潮活动的过去的几十年。许多早期文学的常规与重点问题都集中在，如如何从贸易中获利、最佳的贸易方式和环境政策收益。这段时期研究的大部分内容还是着重于政策分析，但最为显著的特点是其关注有积极意义的事件生成和测试贸易活动或经济增长如何影响环境成果。我们认为这些后来的问题，是以解决目前的政策争论为基础的，所以我们的文章中的大部分内容是关于这方面的文献。2我们在文章的第2节开始我们的分析，研究人均收入和环境质

4、量之间的联系。在这一环节上，GROSSMAN和KRUEGER（1993）在对北美自由贸易协定中的理论起了开创新的作用，随之带来了一个新兴的理论，即被称为环境库兹涅茨曲线（EKC）的出现。环境库兹涅茨曲线推测的是一个国家人均收入和环境质量水平间呈倒U形关系在发展中国家环境收入增加而污染增加，但在发达国家却是污染减少。这个理论是非常重要的，因为在贸易政策领域中很多人认为，贸易和经济的增长实际上可能对环境有益。如果环境质量在一个正常良好的状态下，在贸易活动或者经济增长所带来的收入的增加都将增加对环境质量的需求，并增强政府在投资环境保护上的负担的能力。我们对EKC理论和实证工作的审查使我们对于一个简单

5、和可遇见的污染和人均收入之间的关系持怀疑态度。为了验证EKC曲线，我们采用一个简单的污染需求和供给系统污染水平国家的特征（收入，要素禀赋和技术）和贸易机会（比较优势和现有的贸易限制）。EKC的工作在很大程度上降低这种可能的解释因素，本质上只有一个人均收入虽然目前尚不清楚为什么我们要对这些尚不清楚为什么要对这些经验事前限制。这方面的关注，得到了一些实证研究的支持，收入和污染之间的关系状况，在所采用的国家或者城市样本和所选择的时期内是敏感的形式。尽管存在着这些问题，EKC理论还是创造了两个持久且显著的贡献。首先，它提出的有关贸易和经济增长如何影响环境这样一个重要的问题，并且提出了明显的研究方案。其

6、次，它提供了相当有说服力的证据证明，收入效应能够提高环境质量。此外，有强烈的迹象表明，这种收入效应，因为在环境法规的不断完善严格中，伴随的是人均收入的升高。因此，在不考虑内部政策反应的前提下，有关于贸易和经济增长对环境的影响的研究是不能进行的。不幸的是，因为大多数的理论依赖的是简单的简化估计方式，几乎没有研究收入效应时隔离了其他因素，比如经济增长和资本充足的规模效应和收入效应。因此，我们仍然不知道什么时候收入效应能强大到足以抵消的力量，如资本积累或以出口为导向的污染业的扩张，这就增加了环境的需求。一些证据表明在这一结论上事实的存在，但它又是受一些具体常用的测量污染物限制的（如SO2）。虽然收入

7、增长和环境之间的关系是重要的，且贸易可能通过其他多种渠道改变环境成果。贸易可能会促使污染产业由污染政策严格的国家转移至污染政策宽松的国家。这些变化可能会增剧全球性污染也可能会影响全球的环境政策，但作为国家而言是不愿意收紧环保法规的，因为这关系到国家的国际竞争力。3为了研究这些额外的关注，我们评估贸易自由化对环境的影响将在文章的第3节由一个小型的开放的经济体系设置开始，然后与世界许多小经济体和世界市场价格相联系。我们在小型开放的经济体内分析，联系了贸易自由化对环境的影响和政策的灵活性，且最重要的是，一个国家的比较优势。在这一点上我们发现区分两个不同假设联系污染政策与比较优势是关键。首先是严格污染

8、法规，并且保证，在工厂的选址政策和贸易流动上有一定的作用。我们称之为污染的避风港效应，这一假说拥有强大的理论支柱。4外文文献原文TITLETRADE,GROWTHANDTHEENVIRONMENTMATERIALSOURCEJOURNALOFECONOMICLITERATUREAUTHORBRIANRCOPELAND；MSCOTTTAYLOR1INTRODUCTIONFORTHELASTTENYEARSENVIRONMENTALISTSANDTHETRADEPOLICYCOMMUNITYHAVEENGAGEDINAHEATEDDEBATEOVERTHEENVIRONMENTALCONSEQUE

9、NCESOFLIBERALIZEDTRADETHEDEBATEWASORIGINALLYFUELEDBYNEGOTIATIONSOVERTHENORTHAMERICANFREETRADEAGREEMENTANDTHEURUGUAYROUNDOFGATTNEGOTIATIONS,BOTHOFWHICHOCCURREDATATIMEWHENCONCERNSOVERGLOBALWARMING,SPECIESEXTINCTIONANDINDUSTRIALPOLLUTIONWERERISINGRECENTLYITHASBEENINTENSIFIEDBYTHECREATIONOFTHEWORLDTRADE

10、ORGANIZATIONWTOANDPROPOSALSFORFUTUREROUNDSOFTRADENEGOTIATIONSTHEDEBATEHASOFTENBEENUNPRODUCTIVEBECAUSETHEPARTIESDIFFERGREATLYINTHEIRTRUSTOFMARKETFORCESANDTYPICALLYVALUETHEENVIRONMENTDIFFERENTLYITHASBEENHAMPEREDBYTHELACKOFACOMMONLANGUAGEANDALSOSUFFEREDFROMLITTLERECOURSETOECONOMICTHEORYANDEMPIRICALEVID

11、ENCETHISISPERHAPSNOTSURPRISINGBECAUSEMUCHOFTHEWORKINTHISAREAISSTILLQUITENEWTHEPURPOSEOFTHISESSAYISSETOUTWHATWECURRENTLYKNOWABOUTTHEENVIRONMENTALCONSEQUENCESOFECONOMICGROWTHANDINTERNATIONALTRADEWECRITICALLYREVIEWBOTHTHEORYANDEMPIRICALWORKTOANSWERTHREEBASICQUESTIONSWHATDOWEKNOWABOUTTHERELATIONSHIPBETW

12、EENINTERNATIONALTRADE,ECONOMICGROWTHANDTHEENVIRONMENTHOWCANTHISEVIDENCEHELPUSEVALUATEONGOINGPOLICYDEBATESINTHISAREAWHEREDOWEGOFROMHERETOANSWERTHESEQUESTIONS,WEDISCUSSBOTHTHEEMPIRICALANDTHEORETICALLITERATUREWITHTHEAIDOFARELATIVELYSIMPLEGENERALEQUILIBRIUMMODELWHEREGOVERNMENTPOLICYANDPRIVATESECTORBEHAV

13、IORINTERACTTODETERMINETHEEQUILIBRIUMLEVELOFPOLLUTIONTHEMODELISDEVELOPEDINSECTION2OFTHEPAPERANDTHENEMPLOYEDINVARIOUSGUISESTHROUGHOUTOURUSEOFAMODELTOORGANIZEOURREVIEWREFLECTSANOVERARCHINGTHEMEOFOURESSAYECONOMICTHEORYNEEDSTOPLAYAMUCHLARGERROLEINGUIDINGEMPIRICALINVESTIGATION,SUGGESTINGALTERNATIVEHYPOTHE

14、SES,ANDDISCIPLININGINFERENCESTHEVASTMAJORITYOFEMPIRICALWORKIN5THISFIELDHASLITTLECONNECTIONTOEXPLICITTHEORY,ANDWEARGUETHATTHISHASLEFTIMPORTANTPOLICYDEBATES,WHICHHINGEONTHERELATIVEIMPORTANCEOFVARIOUSTHEORETICALMAGNITUDES,BADLYINFORMEDTHEECONOMICLITERATUREONTHESEISSUESCAMEINTWOWAVES,WITHANINITIALSURGEO

15、FACTIVITYINTHE1970SANDARESURGENCEOFINTERESTSTIMULATEDBYTHEPOLICYDEBATESOFTHEPASTDECADESMUCHOFTHEEARLIERLITERATUREWASNORMATIVE,WITHAFOCUSONISSUESSUCHASGAINSFROMTRADEANDOPTIMALTRADEORENVIRONMENTALPOLICIESALARGECOMPONENTOFRECENTWORKALSOFOCUSESONPOLICYANALYSISBUTITSMOSTSIGNIFICANTFEATUREISITSCONCERNWITH

16、POSITIVEISSUESGENERATINGANDATTEMPTINGTOTESTHYPOTHESESABOUTHOWTRADEORGROWTHAFFECTSENVIRONMENTALOUTCOMESWEVIEWTHESELATTERISSUESASFUNDAMENTALTORESOLVINGCURRENTPOLICYDEBATES,ANDSOMOSTOFOURESSAYWILLFOCUSONTHISASPECTOFTHELITERATUREWEBEGINOURANALYSISINSECTION2BYEXAMININGTHELINKBETWEENINCOMESPERCAPITAANDENV

17、IRONMENTALQUALITYINTERESTINTHISLINKAROSEFROMTHEPIONEERINGWORKBYGROSSMANANDKRUEGER1993ONNAFTA,WHICHSUBSEQUENTLYLEDTOABURGEONINGLITERATUREONWHATHASCOMETOBEKNOWNASTHEENVIRONMENTALKUZNETSCURVEEKCTHEENVIRONMENTALKUZNETSCURVEHYPOTHESIZESANINVERSEUSHAPEDRELATIONSHIPBETWEENACOUNTRYSPERCAPITAINCOMEANDITSLEVE

18、LOFENVIRONMENTALQUALITYINCREASEDINCOMESAREASSOCIATEDWITHANINCREASEINPOLLUTIONINPOORCOUNTRIES,BUTADECLINEINPOLLUTIONINRICHCOUNTRIESTHISLITERATUREISIMPORTANTBECAUSEMANYINTHETRADEPOLICYCOMMUNITYHAVEARGUEDTHATTRADEANDGROWTHMAYACTUALLYBEGOODFORTHEENVIRONMENTIFENVIRONMENTALQUALITYISANORMALGOOD,INCREASESIN

19、INCOMEBROUGHTABOUTBYTRADEORGROWTHWILLBOTHINCREASETHEDEMANDFORENVIRONMENTALQUALITYANDINCREASETHEABILITYOFGOVERNMENTSTOAFFORDCOSTLYINVESTMENTSINENVIRONMENTALPROTECTIONOURREVIEWOFBOTHTHETHEORETICALANDEMPIRICALWORKONTHEEKCLEADSUSTOBESKEPTICALABOUTTHEEXISTENCEOFASIMPLEANDPREDICTABLERELATIONSHIPBETWEENPOL

20、LUTIONANDPERCAPITAINCOMETOINVESTIGATETHEEKCWEEMPLOYASIMPLEPOLLUTIONDEMANDANDSUPPLYSYSTEMLINKINGPOLLUTIONLEVELSTONATIONALCHARACTERISTICSINCOMES,FACTORENDOWMENTSANDTECHNOLOGIESANDTRADINGOPPORTUNITIESCOMPARATIVEADVANTAGEANDCURRENTTRADERESTRICTIONSMUCHOFTHEWORKONTHEEKCREDUCESTHISSETOFPOSSIBLEEXPLANATORY

21、FACTORSTOESSENTIALLYJUSTONEINCOMESPERCAPITAALTHOUGHITISNOTCLEARWHYWEWOULDWANTTO6IMPOSETHESERESTRICTIONSONEMPIRICALESTIMATIONEXANTETHISCONCERNRECEIVESSOMESUPPORTFROMEMPIRICALWORKTHATFINDSTHATTHESHAPEOFTHEESTIMATEDRELATIONSHIPBETWEENPOLLUTIONANDINCOMEISSOMETIMESSENSITIVETOFUNCTIONALFORM,THESAMPLEOFCOU

22、NTRIESORCITIESUSED,ANDTHETIMEPERIODCHOSENDESPITETHESECONCERNS,THEEKCLITERATUREHASMADETWOLASTINGANDSIGNIFICANTCONTRIBUTIONSFIRST,ITRAISEDIMPORTANTEMPIRICALQUESTIONSABOUTHOWTRADEANDGROWTHAFFECTTHEENVIRONMENT,ANDLAUNCHEDASIGNIFICANTRESEARCHAGENDASECOND,ITHASPROVIDEDQUITECONVINCINGEVIDENCETHATTHEREISANI

23、NCOMEEFFECTTHATRAISESENVIRONMENTALQUALITYMOREOVER,THEREARESTRONGINDICATIONSTHATTHISINCOMEEFFECTWORKSBECAUSEINCREASESINTHESTRINGENCYOFENVIRONMENTALREGULATIONACCOMPANYHIGHERPERCAPITAINCOMESTHEREFOREANANALYSISOFTHEEFFECTSOFTRADEANDGROWTHONTHEENVIRONMENTCANNOTPROCEEDWITHOUTTAKINGINTOACCOUNTENDOGENOUSPOL

24、ICYRESPONSESUNFORTUNATELYBECAUSEMOSTOFTHELITERATUREHASRELIEDONSIMPLEREDUCEDFORMESTIMATION,THEREISVERYLITTLEWORKTHATISOLATESTHISINCOMEEFFECTFROMOTHERFACTORS,SUCHASTHESCALEEFFECTSOFGROWTHANDCAPITALABUNDANCECONSEQUENTLYWESTILLKNOWVERYLITTLEABOUTWHENTHISINCOMEEFFECTISSTRONGENOUGHTOOFFSETFORCES,SUCHASCAP

25、ITALACCUMULATIONOREXPORTLEDEXPANSIONOFPOLLUTINGINDUSTRIES,WHICHAREASSOCIATEDWITHINCREASEDDEMANDSONTHEENVIRONMENTSOMEEVIDENCEONTHISSCOREEXISTS,BUTITISLIMITEDANDSPECIFICTOCERTAINCOMMONLYMEASUREDPOLLUTANTSSO2FOREXAMPLEWHILETHELINKBETWEENINCOMEGROWTHANDTHEENVIRONMENTISIMPORTANT,TRADEMAYALTERENVIRONMENTA

26、LOUTCOMESTHROUGHAVARIETYOFOTHERCHANNELSTRADEMAYENCOURAGEARELOCATIONOFPOLLUTINGINDUSTRIESFROMCOUNTRIESWITHSTRICTENVIRONMENTALPOLICYTOTHOSEWITHLESSSTRINGENTPOLICYTHESESHIFTSMAYINTURNINCREASEGLOBALPOLLUTIONORTHEYMAYHAVEACHILLINGEFFECTONENVIRONMENTALPOLICY,ASCOUNTRIESWILLBERELUCTANTTOTIGHTENENVIRONMENTA

27、LREGULATIONSBECAUSEOFCONCERNSOVERINTERNATIONALCOMPETITIVENESSTOEXAMINETHESEADDITIONALCONCERNSWEEVALUATETHEENVIRONMENTALIMPACTOFTRADELIBERALIZATIONINSECTION3STARTINGINASMALLOPENECONOMYSETTINGANDTHENMOVINGTOAWORLDWITHMANYSMALLECONOMIESANDWORLDPRICEDETERMINATIONOURANALYSISWITHINTHESMALLOPENECONOMYSETTI

28、NGLINKSTHEENVIRONMENTALIMPACTOFTRADELIBERALIZATIONTOTHECHOICEOFPOLICYINSTRUMENTS,THEFLEXIBILITYOFPOLICYAND,MOSTIMPORTANTLY,ANATIONS7COMPARATIVEADVANTAGEATTHISPOINTWEFINDITCRUCIALTODISTINGUISHBETWEENTWODIFFERENTHYPOTHESESLINKINGPOLLUTIONREGULATIONTOCOMPARATIVEADVANTAGETHEFIRSTISTHATATIGHTENINGUPOFPOL

29、LUTIONREGULATIONWILL,ATTHEMARGIN,HAVEANEFFECTONPLANTLOCATIONDECISIONSANDTRADEFLOWSWECALLTHISAPOLLUTIONHAVENEFFECTTHISHYPOTHESISHASSTRONGTHEORETICALSUPPORTTHESECONDHYPOTHESISISTHATAREDUCTIONINTRADEBARRIERSWILLLEADTOASHIFTINGOFPOLLUTIONINTENSIVEINDUSTRYFROMCOUNTRIESWITHSTRINGENTREGULATIONSTOCOUNTRIESW

30、ITHWEAKERREGULATIONSWECALLTHISTHEPOLLUTIONHAVENHYPOTHESISTHETHEORETICALSUPPORTFORTHEPOLLUTIONHAVENHYPOTHESISIS,INCONTRAST,QUITEWEAKBECAUSETRADETHEORYSUGGESTSTHATMANYOTHERFACTORS,INADDITIONTOPOLLUTIONREGULATION,AFFECTTRADEFLOWSIFTHESEOTHERFACTORSARESUFFICIENTLYSTRONG,THENITISQUITEPOSSIBLEFORTHERETOEX

31、ISTAPOLLUTIONHAVENEFFECT,BUTHAVETHEPOLLUTIONHAVENHYPOTHESISFAILTHISDISTINCTIONHASALARGEIMPACTONOURDISCUSSIONOFPOLICYISSUESUNTILQUITERECENTLY,THEREWASACONSENSUSINTHEEMPIRICALLITERATURETHATDIFFERENCESINTHESTRINGENCYOFENVIRONMENTALREGULATIONHAVELITTLEORNOEFFECTONTRADEANDINVESTMENTFLOWSSEEJAFFEETAL,1995

32、RECENTWORKSUGGESTSTHISCONCLUSIONWASPREMATUREMOSTOFTHELITERATUREPRIORTO1997THATINVESTIGATEDTHESTRINGENCYOFENVIRONMENTALREGULATIONONTRADEANDINVESTMENTFLOWSUSEDCROSSSECTIONALDATATHESESTUDIESAREUNABLETOCONTROLFORUNOBSERVEDHETEROGENEITYACROSSCOUNTRIESORREGIONSANDTYPICALLYTREATPOLLUTIONREGULATIONSASEXOGEN

33、OUSIFPOLLUTIONPOLICYISENDOGENOUSORTHEREAREIMPORTANTOMITTEDFACTORS,THENTHEESTIMATEDRESULTSWILLBEMISLEADINGSEVERALRECENTSTUDIESHAVEADDRESSEDTHESEISSUESANDFOUNDEVIDENCEFORTHEEXISTENCEOFAPOLLUTIONHAVENEFFECTTHESTRINGENCYOFPOLLUTIONREGULATIONSDOESAFFECTPLANTLOCATIONANDTRADEFLOWSTHEREREMAINSHOWEVER,LITTLE

34、CONVINCINGEVIDENCETOSUPPORTTHEPOLLUTIONHAVENHYPOTHESISINSTEADTHEAVAILABLEEVIDENCESUGGESTSTHATOTHERFACTORSAREMOREIMPORTANTINDETERMININGTRADEPATTERNSTHANAREDIFFERENCESINPOLLUTIONREGULATIONSTHISISANAREATHATSTILLNEEDSMUCHMOREWORK,INPARTBECAUSETHELITERATUREHASOFTENBLURREDTHEDISTINCTIONBETWEENTHEPOLLUTION

35、HAVENEFFECTANDTHEPOLLUTIONHAVENHYPOTHESISTHISDISTINCTIONISALSOIMPORTANTTOOURANSWERSTOTWOKEYPOLICYQUESTIONSINSECTION4WEFIRSTASKWHETHERENVIRONMENTALPOLICYSHOULDBECONSTRAINEDBYINTERNATIONALTRADELAWTO8PREVENTCOUNTRIESFROMUSINGITASASUBSTITUTEFORTRADEPOLICYTHISISSUELIESBEHINDMUCHOFTHECONCERNTHATTRADELIBER

36、ALIZATIONMIGHTLEADTOA“RACETOTHEBOTTOM“INSTANDARDSASCOUNTRIESWEAKENTHEIRENVIRONMENTALPOLICYINRESPONSETOTHECOMPETITIVEPRESSURESOFFREERTRADETHEEMPIRICALEVIDENCEONTHEPOLLUTIONHAVENEFFECTISRELEVANTTOTHISQUESTIONBECAUSEIFPOLLUTIONPOLICYDOESAFFECTTRADEANDINVESTMENTFLOWS,ASRECENTEVIDENCEINDICATES,THENITISPO

37、SSIBLETHATWEAKPOLLUTIONPOLICYMAYBEUSEDASALOOPHOLEINTRADEAGREEMENTSTHESECONDKEYPOLICYQUESTIONSWHETHERTRADEPOLICYSHOULDBEUSEDTOACHIEVEENVIRONMENTALOBJECTIVESEITHERATHOMEORABROADTHEDISPUTESATTHEWTOARISINGFROMTHEUSIMPORTBANSONTUNAFROMMEXICOTOPROTECTDOLPHINS,ANDONSHRIMPFROMVARIOUSCOUNTRIESTOPROTECTTURTLE

38、SARETWOPROMINENTEXAMPLESOFTHISTYPEOFISSUEONTHISISSUEEVIDENCECONCERNINGTHEPOLLUTIONHAVENHYPOTHESISISRELEVANTBECAUSEMUCHOFTHECONCERNOVERTRADESENVIRONMENTALEFFECTEITHERATHOMEORABROADDISAPPEARSIFTHEHYPOTHESISISFALSEWEDONOTPROVIDEUNEQUIVOCALANSWERSTOTHEQUESTIONSWEPOSEDINSTEADWETRYTOREPORTONTHECURRENTSTATEOFAFFAIRSANDIDENTIFYTHESETOFIMPORTANTBUTASYETUNANSWEREDQUESTIONSTHATWENEEDTORESOLVETOBETTERUNDERSTANDTHETRADE,GROWTHANDENVIRONMENTLINK