Flood and drought disasters Impact on Agricultural Economic Growth Analysis.doc

1、1Flood and drought disasters Impact on Agricultural Economic Growth AnalysisAbstract. This paper has certain practical significance，from 1980 to 2010 time series data we find the flood and drought disasters not only cause direct and indirect economic losses of two angles，but also issue to explore on

2、 agricultural economic growth.We can make conclusions that the inherent link between disasters and agricultural economy is very obvious and mutual restricted，that the economic factors is fundamentally to determine disasters factors.To reduce the number of occurrences flood and drought disasters，we a

3、dvise that disaster prevention and mitigation work must also pay attention to floods，as we should strengthen agricultural science and technology investment suggestion. Key words： flood and drought； agricultural economic growth Although the structure of Chinas GDP，a proportion of primary industry of

4、agriculture accelerates with the industrialization process decline， the nature of agriculture about the basis of the national economy has not changed.For the 2reform and opening up in 1978，our country has been increased frequency of flood and drought disasters，which is becoming more and more heavy a

5、nd has become an important factor for sustainable development on the agricultural economy.On the one hand，with the economic development and strength，the economic impact for disasters is reflected in humanitys ability to withstand all kinds of disasters which has been improving，On the other hand，disa

6、ster problems which is eventually solved depends on the level of economic development and also bases on economic method.Therefore，this paper further studies agricultural flood and drought disasters in correlated with economic growth by empirical analysis methods. First， the relevant literature revie

7、w 1. Abroad and domestic about flood and drought economic theory The first study of the economic impact of natural disasters in the literature is the “Economics Aspects of The Waco， Texas Disaster of May11，1953“，in 1953 Texas experienced a major disaster has been studied. Subsequently，Kunreuther and

8、 Fiore （1966）co-authored a paper clearly put forward the term disaster economics.Hirshleifer （1966） was the first in-depth study of economists disaster theme，he analyzed the experiences 3of the Black Death in Europe 1348-1350 outbreak on the economy short-term and long-term effects，their research ha

9、s inspired more economists who began to explore this area.1984 American University of Florida convened a “natural disasters and mitigation of Economics Academic Council （Conference on the Ecnomics of Natural Hazards and Their Mitigation）.“ Nobel laureate Amartya Sen （1998） proposed exchange of right

10、s theory，with that by the droughts，floods and other natural disasters caused by reduced food supply is not the only factor causing famine.Hideki Toyab and Mark Skidmorec （2005） use the data to examine the impact of disasters by natural disasters，human and economic losses decrease as the degree of ec

11、onomic.Zheng Gongcheng （1998） in “Disaster Economics“ book，refers to summarize the four basic rules of disaster effects.Zhang Xiao（1999） refers that flood and drought disasters causes economic loss which is defined as the total direct and indirect economic losses.Xie Yonggang （2003） in its “flood an

12、d drought economics“ in the analysis of economic losses caused by floods and droughts，from the perspective of both macro and micro levels further understand the effects on the water hazard analysis.Liu Yingqiu （2005） summary hat Chinas agricultural drought is a major natural 4disaster.Duweigong for

13、the public （2010 ） respectively based on Harrod - Domar；two-sector；regional economic；economic balanced；structuralist economic disaster damage loss assessment of natural methods for specific assessments，provide a theoretical basis for the study.Zhang Weiwei（2011） agricultural drought by climate，soil

14、and other natural resources， agriculture and crop adaptability limit the impact，with the local ability to regulate the use of water resources can vary and is affected by the level of economic development constraints. Second， the research hypotheses and theoretical models 1. A study hypothesis We sel

15、ect 11 indicators which adopted from the production，living，human activity of three levels.Agricultural economy means Y here.Hypothesis are following. H1： Flood affected area X1 and Y remain negative influence H2： Flood crops area X2 and Y remain negative influence H3： Number of houses collapsed X3 a

16、nd Y remain negative influence H4：Flood affected populationX4and Y remain negative influence H5： Hydropower Station in Rural X5 and Y remain positive 5influence H6： Effective irrigation area X6 and Y remain positive influence H7： Drought-affected area X7and Y remain negative influence H8： Drought cr

17、ops area X8and Y remain negative influence H9： Crops affected area X9and Y remain negative influence H10：Drought food economic lossesX10and Y remain negative influence H11： Flood food economic losses X11and Y remain negative influence 2. Theoretical model （2） regression equation significance F test

18、Significance test of the regression equation is the dependent variable and the linear relationship， the main squares regression using the average and the average of the ratio of residual sum of squares， namely the F value for inspection test formula. SSR is the regression sum of squares. SSE is the

19、residual sum of squares. n is the sample number， k is the number of independent variables， F statistic degrees of freedom （k ， n-k-1 ） of the F distribution. The columns in the table meaning of data items were not 6here.but the explanatory variable sources of variation， from SPSS17.0 the table to kn

20、ow the regression equation F statistic values were 10.553， 3.72， 1.196， P value 0.000， 0.000， 0.003， we can make a conclusion that visible equation is extremely significant， that the dependent variable and the explanatory variables of all the linear relationship is significant. At last we can build

21、a linear model. （3） regression coefficients significance T test The biggest advantage about T-test is the ability to compensate for the lack of F-test.When the F-test which proved through regression equation is significant，they should further inspection of the correlation coefficients bi，and excludi

22、ng the dependent variable can not be a better explanation of changes in the independent variables，because it is a test of the regression coefficients. N is the sample size in the formula，he variable T degrees of freedom （ n-k-1） t distribution， Sbi is the standard errors of regression coefficients b

23、i.So if the argument of the standard error of the regression coefficient is large，it will get a smaller value of t，indicating that the explanation of the independent variable changes due to poor ability variables have no significant effect on the dependent variable，which it 7can be deleted a group f

24、rom the variable.significance level of t Sig the probability is often accompanied by less than 0.05. From the table data，we can clearly be seen accompanied by corresponding probability which is less than the standard significance level of 0.05，They are explanatory variables which are significant lin

25、ear relationship and they should be retained in the regression equation.Seen by the regression equation above conclusions were adopted goodness of fit test，regression equation significance test. 3. Assuming that the test results Through analysis，this research makes the following conclusions：food and

26、 drought disasters affect agricultural economic growth，and we can see the greater the loss of about floods and droughts，the more unfavorable for the development of the agricultural economy.At the same time，we can indicate that the between affected area and agricultural economic growth have negativel

27、y correlated，which means that the larger the affected area is，the greater the loss of the agricultural economy.Second，its important for the agricultural scientific and technological progress to promote the role of economic growth，last but not the least，we can refer that the higher the level of scien

28、tific and technological progress improve，the 8faster growth of the agricultural economy become. Combined with the selected indicators and research findings，the following proposed measures： First，government does a good job of disaster prevention and mitigation and makes measures to raise farmers awar

29、eness of disaster prevention and mitigation.Everyone should adhere to the policy about prevention first， combining anti-anti， sustainable governance and integrated management approach.The first we recognize the environment problem due to human activity and thus vulnerable to irrational，which is the

30、root of Chinas agricultural disaster that is intensified，so we need to further improve the ecological environment to achieve the purpose of disaster prevention and mitigation. Fund： National Social Science Fund Project “economic loss assessment of natural disasters comparative study - based on our 2

31、008 blizzard disaster Theoretical and Empirical Comparison“ （ID： 08BJL021） References： 1.Natural Disasters and Sustainable Development：Understanding the Links between Development，Environment and Natural Disasters，2002. 92.Amartya Sen Poverty and hunger and deprivation of rightsM. Beijing：Commercial

32、Press， 2001 3.Zheng Gongcheng.Disaster Economics M.Hunan Peoples Publishing House，1998 4.Hu An gang.China natural disasters and economic developmentM.Wuhan，Hubei Science and Technology Press， 1996 5.Xie Yonggang.water-related disasters economy M.Beijing，Economic Science Press， 2003 6.Liu Yingqiu.dro

33、ught disasters on our social and economic impact studyM.Beijing，China Water Power Press， 2005 7.Zhang etal.Chinese Economic Analysis of Flood and Drought DisastersM.China Economic Publishing House， 1999 8.Zhang Weiwei.Hubei tea climatic zoning and drought risk assessment，Nanjing Information Engineer

34、ing University， June 2011 9.Wu Yi Jin etal.Hubei Province in History Early flood disaster Characteristics and Rules.Wuhan University. 2003 （4）：213 216 10.Right Zhang， Li Ning.Main meteorological disaster risk assessment and management of quantitative methods and their application.Beijing Normal University Press. 2007：39. 11.Hideki Toyab and Mark Skidnorce.Economic Development and 10the Impacts of Natural Disasters，University of Wisconsia-Whiterwater September， 2005 12.Liu Gang.Hubei floods droughts several countermeasures.Huazhong Normal University Thesis 2000