IFC-塑造非洲的未来（英文）.docx

1、SHAPING THE FUTURE OF AFRICAMarkets and Opportunities for Private InvestorsSHAPING THE FUTURE OF AFRICAMarkets and Opportunities for Private InvestorsCONTENTS5 | EXECUTIVE SUMMARY9 | MARKETS AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRIVATE INVESTORS IN AFRICA23 | CASE STUDIESAzito and CIPREL Expansions Invigorate Cte

2、dIvoires Power SectorGhanas Sankofa Gas Project An Opportunity to Correct an Ailing Power SectorDakar Toll Road Dramatically Reduces Traffic Congestion to Capital City Mobisol Connects a Continent to ChangeFrancophone Africa Seeks Opportunities in the Housing Finance Market Zambias Metalco Recycles

3、Kabwes Toxic Lead WasteEthiopian Rose Producer Afriflora is Boosting Exports and Jobs Madagascar Seeks to Create a Market in Beef ExportsSolar Energy Brings Affordable Electricity to Egypt32 | REFERENCES4Executive SummaryAFRICA IS ON THE REBOUNDThe end of the commodity super cycle in 2014 hit Sub-Sa

4、haran economies hard, sending economic growth to a two-decade low by 2016 as prices of crude oil,commodities, and other African exports fell dramatically. In addition, global financial factors reduced the interest of international investors in the region.But after a few years of sluggish growth, mos

5、t of the regions economies are returning to previous levels of expansion.Capital flows into the region, in the form of bank lending and equity and bond offerings, have strengthened considerably, reflecting improved global sentiment toward emerging markets in general and in Africa in particular. Remi

6、ttances, an important source of capital and foreign exchange for all developing countries and no less so for Africa, are also improving.Progress is uneven across the continent, as resource intensive economiesespecially oil exporters such as Angola and Nigeriacontinue to lag, whileagricultural export

7、ers enjoy stable growth. And several large economiesEthiopia, Cte dIvoire, Senegal, Tanzania, and Ghana in particularhave posted growth rates of over 6 percent over the last few years.Overall, the economic outlook for the region is positive, with economic growth expected to rise to 3.2 percent this

8、year and 3.6 percent in 2020, according to World Bank Group data.AN OPPORTUNITY FOR THE PRIVATE SECTORDespite the recent economic drag, Africa is a rapidly expanding market that represents significant economic opportunity for private enterprises and investors around the world.The regions economic po

9、tential is about more than recovering commodity prices. Other forces are at work,including favorable demographic trends, economic reforms, infrastructure investment, buoyant services sectors, and strong agricultural production.Africas demographics are unique and brimming with potential. In an aging

10、world, the region has ayoung and growing population. Rapid urbanization is expected to double the population of cities within 25 years, raising hopes for the productivity, innovation, and economic diversification that such trends have brought to other regions.By 2030, Africas middle- and high-income

11、 groups are expected to grow by 100 million, boosting them to over 160 million people across the region. These rapidly expanding groups of consumers will spend smaller portions of their income on basic necessities suchas food and beverages and more on transportation, information and communication te

12、chnologies, housing, education, clothing and footwear, pharmaceuticals, and other products and services.Technology is a particularly bright area for Africa. Innovative technology adaptations are creating opportunities for economies to “leapfrog,” or skip conventional development steps to more rapidl

13、y catch up with advanced economies. Africa continues to lead the world in innovative financial services based on mobile telephony, a trend that is rapidly bringing banking and other financial services to the unbanked and underbanked.The overall climate for business continues to improve, as African r

14、eforms tracked in the World Bank Groups Doing Business annual survey continue to rise. The growth of local capital markets, though still nascent in most countries, continues apace across the region.All in all, private enterprises and investors that are prepared to take advantage of these trends and

15、serve Africas burgeoning consumer classes stand poised to tap new markets and reap significant gains.OBSTACLES REMAINHowever, significant obstacles stand between African economies and full-tilt growth and progress.A general lack of financing continues to constrain growth and development in the regio

16、n, as less than a quarter of adults have access to formal financial services. The regions infrastructure gapa lack of electricity, roads and other transportation, andsanitation, for exampleis not closing as quickly as regional governments had hoped. Growing cities, despite their potential, continue

17、to struggle in termsof costliness, housing availability, efficient delivery of services, and other issues.These can be overcome or mitigated through joint efforts by regional governments, the World Bank Group and other multilateral development banks, and private enterprises.The many positive develop

18、ments across Africaincluding progressing economic reforms in many countries, technological advances, urbanization, and growing middle classes could prove to be significant opportunities for both African economies and businesses seeking to engage with them.CASE STUDIESA multitude of private and publi

19、c-private initiatives across Africamany of them assisted by IFC and World Bank financingseek to serve a region now being transformed by technological advances, urbanization, and growing middle classes.Cte dIvoire | Azito and CIPRELIFC invested and mobilized a total of $785 million to expand independ

20、ent electricity producers Azito Energie and CIPREL in Cte dIvoire. The result is a more competitive power market that meets growing consumer demand with improved service and lowerprices. Projects included a new 300-megawatt gas-fired plant and a technology upgrade of an existing plant.Blackouts and

21、brownouts in the country have been dramatically reduced.Ghana | Sankofa Gas ProjectAn offshore oil and natural gas project financed by IFC, the World Bank, and private lenders will start producing natural gas this year, transforming Ghanas energy sector and dramatically reducing carbon emissions.The

22、 Sankofa Gas Project is expected to generate $2.3 billion in revenues for Ghanas government and provide a stable, long-term source of domestic gas that will help solve the countrys chronic gas supply constraints.Senegal | Transport Eiffage Toll RoadA partnership between government, development finan

23、ce institutions including IFC and the World Bank, and the private sector brought West Africas first public-private partnership toll road to Senegal. The24-kilometer highway initially connected Dakar and Diamniadio, reducing commuting times dramatically and creating an important source of employment

24、and income. It has now been extended to the nations new international airport.East Africa | MobisolMobisol is a pay-as-you-go solar energy service company delivering renewable energy solutions to off-grid communities in East Africa. Mobisols high-quality systems have been conceived to meet the deep

25、and wide- ranging needs of off-grid communities by leveraging access to mobile money and phones.West Africa | Caisse Rgionale de Refinancement HypothcaireRapid population growth in West Africa is accelerating demand for housing and housing finance. By investing in a regional mortgage finance company

26、 and its bonds, IFC and the World Bank are helping to attract profitable, stable, and responsible institutional investors to the regions housing finance market, thereby improving the affordability of home ownership.Zambia | MetalcoOnce the site of a lead mine, Zambian city Kabwe suffers from dangero

27、usly high lead pollution levels and associated health problems. An IFC investment into a private recycling and waste management company is helping to dispose of lead, recycle other scrap products, and create jobs and economic growth.Ethiopia | AfrifloraFlowers are blooming in Ethiopia. IFC client Af

28、riflora, the East African nations largest producer and exporter of roses, has become the worlds largest rose grower,exporting 900 million roses to Europe each year. A recent IFC investment helped the company expand, install new water recycling systems, and create 5,000 new jobs.Madagascar | Beef Pro

29、ductionDespite its natural beauty and biodiversity, Madagascar continues to suffer from stubborn poverty, with much of the population subsisting on less than $2 a day.Agribusiness, however, has the potential to help. IFC is supporting an investment in a local, private agriculture equipment company t

30、o help transform poultry and beef production on the island, while an IFC supported feedlot and slaughterhouse facility will create a new marketfor livestock farmers. The result could be better food security and resilience, and higher export revenues.IFCs activities support global emerging markets. B

31、eyond Sub-Saharan Africa, IFC has supported projects that demonstrate the power of maximizing finance for development. These include important recent projects in North Africa, including the following:Egypt | PowerA massive solar energy park with 32 power plants in Egypts western desert is poised to

32、disrupt the countrys energy market. The project should allow the country to generate 20 percent of its power from renewable sources within five years and dramatically lower energy costs for its 90 million residents. It is financed by IFC and a consortium of lenders, supporting 13 private companies t

33、hat will complete and operate the plants. n8Markets and Opportunities for Private Investors in AfricaBy Dilek Aykut and Monika Blaszkiewicz SchwartzmanRECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTSFollowing a sharp economic slowdown in 2016, a recovery is underway in Sub-Saharan Africa, especially among non-resource

34、intensive economies.Growth in the region recovered from a two-decadelow of 1.3 percent in 2016, to an estimated 2.4 percent in 2017, as global economic activity and trade gained momentum, commodity prices recovered, and global financing conditions remained favorable (Figure 1).Oil and metal prices s

35、trengthened in 2017, as did agriculture prices relevant to the region, with the exception of cocoa prices, which fell sharply last year. The regions access to international capital markets also improved, with a notable increase in sovereign bond issuance. Reinforcing these favorable external develop

36、ments, ongoing infrastructure investment and monetary policy accommodation supported economicactivity, while improved weather conditions triggered a rebound in food production across the region. In turn, easing food price inflation has helped boost household demand in some countries.1Improved extern

37、al conditions buoyed international capital flows into the region, leading to a build-up of foreign currency reserves, especially in oil exporting countries. In particular, 2017 saw strong gross capital flows to Sub-Saharan Africa in the form of syndicated bank lending and bond and equity offerings,

38、all of which reflect improved global sentiment toward emerging markets (Figure 2). Sovereign bond issuance was at a record high, with Nigeria, Senegal, and Cte dIvoire selling bonds in international capital markets. Looking at the sectoral composition, capital flows to the private sector were driven

39、 largely by natural resources and financialFIGURE 1 Sub-Saharan Africas growth prospectsSource: “Global Economic Prospects,” World Bank Group, January 2018FIGURE 2 Gross flows to Sub-Saharan Africa, by instrumentSource: Dealogic, IFC Global Macro, Market & Portfolio Researchservices (Figure 3). Fore

40、ign Direct Investment (FDI) inflows, which fell in 2016 in tandem with weaker commodity prices, also rebounded, according to high- frequency data (Figure 4).Formal remittance inflows to Sub-Saharan Africa increased by 12 percent, from $34 billion in 2016 to an estimated $38 billion in 2017. Remittan

41、ce flows are an important source of external funding and foreign exchange for some countries, including Liberia(accounting for 25 percent of GDP), Senegal (15 percent of GDP) and Togo (8.5 percent of GDP). In Nigeria in 2017, remittances amounted to $22.3 billion, or 5.6 percent of GDP. The country

42、also successfully raised$300 million in diaspora bonds in June 2017 to finance development projects.2The pattern of growth across countries is far from homogeneous. While the SSA regions three largest economiesNigeria, South Africa, and Angola continue to exhibit low growth, their performancesin 201

43、7 improved from the previous year, marking a potential turning point that may be linked to recovering commodity prices. On the other hand, growth in non- resource intensive countrieswhich consist mostly of agricultural exportershas remained broadly stable over the last few years, even during the tep

44、id 2016 season.Several large African economiesEthiopia, Cte dIvoire, Senegal, and Tanzaniahave posted annual average growth rates of more than 6 percent since 2015. In Senegal, growth remained strong and was supported by broad-based economic reforms. Growth moderated somewhat in Cte dIvoire, declini

45、ng from8.3 percent in 2016 to 7.6 percent in 2017a result of lower cocoa prices. Similarly, in Tanzania, growth dropped from 7 percent to 6.6 percent, partly due to the delayed execution of fiscal plans. Among other large African economies, Ghanas growth recovered significantly in 2017 on the back o

46、f its expanding oil sector, while drought has taken a toll on economic activity in Kenya.The medium-term economic outlook for the region is positive. Economic growth is forecast to rise to 3.2 percent in 2018, and increase further to 3.6 percent in 2020 (Figure 1). Again, the regional average masks

47、considerable heterogeneity among countries. In fact, excluding South Africa (which has been negatively affected by domestic political and economic developments) and two large oil dependent economies (Angola and Nigeria), Sub-SaharanAfrica should continue to expand at a robust pace of around 5 percen

48、t, supported in part by infrastructure investments which is above the average for emergingFIGURE 3 Gross flows to the private sector in Sub-Saharan Africa, by sectorSource: Dealogic, IFC Global Macro, Market & Portfolio ResearchFIGURE 4 FDI inflows to Sub-Saharan Africa, percent ofGDPSource: IFC Global Macro, Market & Portfolio Research