《The Economist》《经济学人》中文版2009年12月.doc

1、全国气候：政治搭台，科学唱戏Climate change 气候变化 heated debate 激辩Nov 26th 2009 From The Economist print editionWhy political orthodoxy must not silence scientific argument为何有了政治说法，还应有科学的辩论？Illustration by Claudio Munoz “WHAT is truth?” That was Pontius Pilates answer to Jesuss assertion that “Everyone that is of t

2、he truth heareth my voice.” It sounds suspiciously like the modern argument over climate change. “真理是什么？”耶稣说完“相信真理的人都能听到我”之后，彼拉多随即如此问道。听起来耳熟？在当代，气候变化引起的争辩就与此有相似之处。A majority of the worlds climate scientists have convinced themselves, and also a lot of laymen, some of whom have political power, that

3、the Earths climate is changing; that the change, from humanitys point of view, is for the worse; and that the cause is human activity, in the form of excessive emissions of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide. 国际上，大多数气候科学家不但说服了自己，也说服了很多门外汉（其中包括一些有政治影响力的人）-地球的气候正在改变；这种改变，从人道主义角度来看，是消极的；这种改变的始作俑者是

4、人类，是他们通过排放超量的诸如二氧化碳的温室气体而造成的。A minority, though, are sceptical. Some think that recent, well-grounded data suggesting the Earths average temperature is rising are explained by natural variations in solar radiation, and that this trend may be coming to an end. Others argue that longer-term evidence t

5、hat modern temperatures are higher than they have been for hundreds or thousands of years is actually too flaky to be meaningful.少数人对此表示怀疑。有些人提出，最近有充分的数据表明地球平均气温上升是由于太阳辐射的自然变化，而这种变化已接近尾声。其他人也认为长期的证据显示现在的气温高于过去几百年甚至几千年的说法是站不住脚的。Such disagreements are commonplace in science. They are eventually settle

6、d by the collection of more data and the invention of more refined (or entirely new) theories. Arguments may persist for decades; academics mayand often dosling insults at each other; but it does not matter a great deal because the stakes are normally rather low.对于科学家们来说，这样的争论司空见惯。只要有更多的数据和更完整的（或全新的

7、）理论，他们最终便会折服。争论可能会持续数十年；学者们可能，实际上经常起唇舌之争，出言伤人，但因为赌注通常不大，因此也无伤大雅。The stakes in the global-warming debate, however, could scarcely be higher. Scientific evidence /that climate change is under way, is man-made, and is likely to continue happening/ forms the foundation for an edifice of policy which is

8、intended to transform the worlds carbon-intensive economy into one which no longer spews greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. A lot of money, and many reputationsboth academic and politicalare involved.然而在全球气候变暖这边的争辩，赌注却高得多。科学证据声称气候变化正在进行中，是人类之过，还很可能持续下去。于是各国政府纷纷出台了一摞的政策，试图把目前以碳为主导的经济发展模式转向清洁的发展模式。

9、在这过程中，无论是学者还是政客，一掷千金甚至连名誉也搭上的大有人在。Sceptics claim that this burden of responsibility is crushing the spirit of scientific inquiry. Scientists, they maintain, are under pressure to bolster the majority view. The recent publication of embarrassing e-mails from the University of East Anglia, an importan

10、t centre of climate science (see article), revealing doubts about data and a determination not to air such concerns publicly, has strengthened these suspicions.怀疑者们认为，沉重的责任正在碾碎科学探究精神。他们还坚持认为科学家们为了支持多数人的观点而饱受压力的煎熬。最近曝光的一封来自东安吉利大学这所著名气候科学研究中心的电子邮件让人局促不安。邮件的曝光揭示的对数据的疑问和不公开这些忧虑的决心，更印证了以上的怀疑。There is no

11、doubt that politics and science make uncomfortable bedfellows. Politicians sell certainty. Science lives off doubt. The creation /of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to establish a consensus on the science /was an excellent idea for policymakers, who needed a strong scientific foundatio

12、n for their deliberations, but it sits uncomfortably with a discipline that advances by disproving accepted theories and overturning orthodoxies.毫无疑问，政治和科学夫唱妇随并不是一件好事。政客们要确凿的事实，而科学家们则以怀疑为乐。对决策者来说，要得出深思熟虑的结果就需要无懈可击的科学性，所以成立国际气候变化小组以达成科学的共识是英明之举。但要前进就必须反对公认的理论和推翻正统的说法。如此规则让这个小组坐立难安。The danger of disse

13、nt 反对的危险Some would argue that, in matters of great public import, scientific dissent should be silenced. It can, it is true, do harm. When AIDS first reared its ugly head, no one knew what caused it. Gradually, the virus responsible was isolated, identified and then attacked successfully with drugs

14、designed specifically to inhibit its reproduction. A few scientists, though, refused to accept the evidence, and some politicians used their arguments to justify inaction. Since one of those politicians was Thabo Mbeki, then president of South Africa, hundreds of thousands who might have been saved

15、by an anti-AIDS policy grounded in scientific reality died as a result of his policies.有些人反驳道，在关乎公共利益的事物面前，持异议的科学家们应该保持缄默。事实上，这是有百害而无一利的。在艾滋病肆虐伊始，没有人知道原因。然后带病毒者被隔离了，确认染病后又服用专门的药物成功抑制病毒蔓延。只是有部分科学家拒绝接受证据，于是某些政治家就顺水推舟以此为借口不采取任何行动。由于其中一个政客是前南非总统塔博姆贝基，数十万个本来可以通过科学的抗艾滋病政策保住性命的患者死在了他的政策之下。Yet the damage in

16、 that case was done by the politicians. A leader who is determined to pursue a wrong-headed course will always find some scientist to support him. A world in which that were not true would be one in which a dangerously narrow consensus had taken hold.但是这种情况要为损失负责人的应该是政客。一个决意要步向歧途的领导者总是不乏支持他的科学家。要是有那

17、么一个世界不是如此，那么在这个世界里肯定存在着一种狭隘得近乎危险的共识。This newspaper believes that global warming is a serious threat, and that the world needs to take steps to try to avert it. That is the job of the politicians. But we do not believe that climate change is a certainty. There are no certainties in science. Prevailin

18、g theories must be constantly tested against evidence, and refined, and more evidence collected, and the theories tested again. That is the job of the scientists. When they stop questioning orthodoxy, mankind will have given up the search for truth. The sceptics should not be silenced.本刊深信，全球气候变暖是一个

19、严峻的威胁，全人类都需要采取行动改变这种状况-这是政客的职责。但是我们并不认为气候变化已成定局。在科学的世界里面没有肯定。流行的理论必须反复经过验证，修正再验证再修正才能下定论这是科学家的工作。到他们不再怀疑正统说法之日，便是人类放弃追求真理之时。怀疑的声音是不应该被抹杀的。Japanese banking liberalisation 日本银行业的自由化Knocking down the wall 打破成规Jul 2nd 2009 | TOKYO From The Economist print editionJapan eases the rules for banks and their

20、 securities affiliates日本放宽对银行及其证券业务分行的监管REGULATORS around the world are contemplating higher walls between commercial banks and their investment-banking divisions. In Japan the opposite is happening. Last month the countrys Financial Services Agency (FSA) dramatically eased the regulations on how ba

21、nks may interact with their securities arms, with sweeping implications for Japans financial markets. 就在全世界的监管者都努力在为商业银行及其投资银行分部之间高筑围墙的时候，日本却正在反其道而行之。上个月，日本金融服务厅（FSA）引人注目的放宽了对商业银行如何同其证券业务分行进行合作的监管，这对日本金融市场是一种暗示。The old system laid huge burdens on financial groups. It prevented bankers from suggestin

22、g services that were provided by the same firm but housed in a different unit. Foreign banks, lacking the same holding-company structures as domestic rivals, were the worst hit. Until recently, grouses an employee of a big bank, its Japanese unit generated more paperwork than the rest of its operati

23、ons across Asia combined. Domestic firms also suffered. And a system designed to minimise risk increased it, says an executive. “If the country manager asks the head of the securities unit, Hows business?, he cant say because he is in a different legal entity.”旧的制度让财团们承受着巨大的负担。它限制银行家提供建议服务，这些服务其实是由同

24、一家公司提供的，但是却分属不同的部门。外资银行由于缺少和其国内竞争者相同的控股公司的架构，更是遭受到严重打击。直到最近，一家大型银行的员工的抱怨这家银行在日本的分行所产生的书面文件比其在亚洲其他国家的业务部门加起来还多。国内公司也同样深受其害。一项本来用于降低风险的制度却恰恰相反增加了风险，一位员工说道：“如果银行的区域总经理问证券部门的领导业务怎么样？他根本没有办法回答，因为证券部门属于另外一个法人实体。 ”The new rules simplify things. The reform allows employees to work across different units. So

25、 support staff can perform tasks for both the banking and securities units, which should increase efficiency, lower costs and improve risk management. It also lets employees cross-sell products, provided that a robust system exists to prevent conflicts of interest. Previously, corporate customers ha

26、d to opt in to enable the banking group to share client information. Now they must opt out. 新的制度让事情简单了。改革后的制度允许银行员工在各部门之间交叉工作。这样员工可以同时完成银行部门和证券部门的业务，从而提高效率，降低成本，以及提高风险管理水平。新的制度还允许员工交叉销售金融产品，并且通过有力的制度来预防利益冲突。以前，为了让银行间共享客户信息，企业客户必须参与进来，而现在，他们则必须退出。The new responsibility placed on companies to monitor

27、themselves partly explains harsh sanctions that have been handed down by the FSA recently. Hapless Citigroups bad run continues: it has been barred from promoting its retail bank in Japan for a month, starting in mid-July, because of inadequate controls on money-laundering. And Mitsubishi UFJ Financ

28、ial Group, a huge local bank, was slapped with sanctions for failing to prevent data theft by a fired employee.新的制度让企业必须肩负起自己监督自己的责任，这也部分解释了为什么 FSA 最近频频宣布严厉的制裁决定。花旗集团的霉运还在继续：由于对洗钱活动控制不力，从七月中旬起，花旗集团将被勒令暂停在日本推销其零售银行产品一个月。另一家日本本土银行业巨头，三菱 UFJ 金融集团，也因为其前员工窃取并出售客户信息而受到制裁。The reform is intended to unleash

29、more sophisticated financial products in Japan. Regional lenders and the countrys three “megabanks” exert enormous power over companies. Firms tend to rely on bank loans rather than the capital markets for their financing even though the level has decreased since the 1990s banking crisis (see chart)

30、. Japanese firms are three times more reliant on bank lending than American firms are. Relationships that span decades are hard to unwind but even the banks recognise that the capital markets need to develop. 这项改革的目的旨在在日本推广更加完善的金融产品。民间放款人和日本银行“三巨头”都正在尽最大努力做企业的工作。相对于从资本市场融资，企业更加信赖通过银行贷款来融资。尽管从上个世纪 90

31、 年代的银行危机以来，这中信赖程度已经降低了不少，日本企业对银行借款的依赖程度仍然是美国企业的三倍。 （参见图表）银行已经认识到资本市场同样需要发展，但是这种持续了数十年的想法，的确很难改变。The new rules also let the megabanks compete a bit more easily in the securities business, which is dominated in Japan by Nomura. It handled about half of all financing deals in Japan last fiscal year, an

32、d 95% of the deals so far this year. New rivalry at home partly explains Nomuras interest in looking abroad for growth by acquiring the European and Asian investment-banking arms of Lehman Brothers last autumn. Could Japan yet end up a flag-carrier for liberalisation? 新的制度还能够让银行巨头们在证券市场中的竞争能够轻松一些。日本

33、国内的证券市场被野村证券（Nomura）控制着，它处理了上一财年日本国内大约一半的金融交易，以及本财年迄今为止 95%的交易。由于目前日本国内新的竞争形势，野村证券已经把目光投向海外，通过去年秋天并购莱曼兄弟在欧洲和亚洲的投行业务来寻求新的增长。日本能够结束这场银行业的自由化进程吗？银行业竞争：速度为王 2009-12-04A special report on business and finance in BrazilSurvival of the quickest 最速者生存Nov 12th 2009 From The Economist print editionFrequent cr

34、ises have made for strong banks and nimble financiers频繁发生危机已使银行更健全，金融业者思惟更敏捷BRAZILIAN businessmen often say that the countrys recent economic past has strengthened companies, and especially banks. The argument goes like this: you need to be good, or at least inventive, to survive and make money when

35、 you have no idea whether inflation next year will be 50% or 500%. Bankers and finance directors have had to be particularly nimble. One example is Souza Cruz (a subsidiary of BAT), Brazils largest tobacco company, which in the days of high inflation did no better than break even on its cigarette sa

36、les. Its profits came from the interest on the cash it held between being paid by retailers and paying tax fortnightly. Companies used to operating in such unusual circumstances flourished when life became more predictable.巴西商人经常说，巴西最近在经济上的经历增强了公司体质，尤其是银行业。类似说法包括贵公司必须体质更好（或至少具备创新能力）以存活下来，在意想不到的时机赚大钱

37、，无论明年通货膨胀将是 50%或 500%。尤其，银行业者和金融主管的思惟必须更敏捷灵活。举一个例子，巴西最大烟草商 Souza Cruz（英美烟草 BAT 子公司）在高通膨期间，香烟销量甚至几乎与歇业时期一样。该公司却从零售商支付货款与隔周缴税之间的盈余现金衍生利息上获利。当景气转好时，过去习惯于在非常时期经营的公司就发大财了。There is some truth to this argument, even though it brushes aside the fact that until the 1990s Brazilian companies did not have to w

38、orry about foreign competitors. No big companies went bust in the recent financial crisis, despite losses on foreign-exchange derivatives that the Bank for International Settlements estimates at $25 billion. Moreover, no big banks wobbled, let alone had to be rescued, though there were some mergers.

39、有一些事实可以支撑这个说法，即使该说法漠视在巴西公司企业在 1990 年代之前从不必担心外国竞争者的事实。尽管国际结算银行估计，最近金融海啸期间巴西外汇损失高达250 亿美元，但没有任何一家大型企业破产。此外也没有一家大型银行财务不稳，遑论需要政府救援，但有发生一些合并。One reason was that a previous round of bank failures, in 1994, had already cleared out the bad ones. Until then banks made their profits by taking deposits from cu

40、stomers, lending the money to the government overnight and pocketing the difference. With inflation at several hundred per cent a year, many banks balance-sheets were hard to decipher. When inflation came down, it became clear that a number of them were insolvent. These folded or merged with other b

41、anks, leaving only the stronger ones.理由之一是 1994 年前一波银行倒闭，已经清理了体质较差的银行。在那之前，这些银行藉由提领客户存款、一夜之间借钱给政府并装进别人的口袋来赚取利润。由于一年内通膨高达几个百分之七八百，很多银行资产负债表根本无法判读。当通膨来临，很明显许多银行面临破产。这些银行纷纷倒闭或与其它银行合并，只留下体质较健全的银行。Brazils financial system got a further boost from reforms carried out when Arminio Fraga was governor of the

42、 central bank from 1999 until the start of 2003 (he is now at Gvea Investimentos, an investment firm). The countrys bank-settlement system now operates in real time, so all banks know their cash positions at any given moment and the central bank has an overall picture of what is happening. Before th

43、is system was introduced the central bank often ended up honouring the debts of banks that went bust, creating a dangerous incentive to be careless. Both Mr Fraga and his successor as governor, Henrique Meirelles, have made sure that banks report what is going on in any off-balance-sheet vehicles th

44、ey have funded. This has helped to keep under control the special investment vehicles, conduits and other mysterious creatures that have caused so much damage in other countries.巴西金融体系在 Arminio Fraga 担任央行行长期间（1999 至 2003 年初）进行大刀阔斧改革并获得大幅提升，目前他担任投资公司 Gvea Investimentos 总裁。巴西的银行结算制度目前以实时方式运作，因此所有银行在任何

45、时刻都能掌握自己的现金状况，而央行则掌控各银行实时情况的总图。这套制度引进之前，央行经常要收拾残局支付破产银行的债务，建立了危险诱因却不自知。Arminio Fraga 和下一任行长 Henrique Meirelles，确保各银行的报表在他们设立之不列入资产负债的任何平台上继续运转。这些有利于控管曾在其它国家造成严重伤害的特别投资平台、管道和其它神秘工具。This transparency extends to financial markets too. All fund managers must disclose the net asset value of their funds t

46、o Brazils Securities and Exchange Commission (CVM) daily, though with a 48-hour delay. At the end of every month funds must disclose what they were holding 90 days ago. Anyone can go to the CVMs website and look up these numbers. Fund managers may grumble about too much disclosure, but most are happ

47、y with the rules. Maria Helena Santana, who chairs the CVM, explains that they make it harder to pull off a scam of the sort run by Bernard Madoff, whose pyramid scheme was hidden behind a veil of secrecy.此一透明制度亦延伸至金融市场。所有基金经理人每天必须向巴西证券交易委员会（CVM）公开他们手上基金的净资产价值，但有 48 小时延迟。在每个月底，各檔基金必须公开他们 90 天以前的持股比例

48、，任何人都可以去 CVM 的网站查阅这些数字。基金经理人虽然可能因公开太多而牢骚满腹，但大多数经理人都乐于接受法规约束。CVM 主席 Maria Helena Santana 阐述，他们会使 Bernard Madoff 操作的诈骗手法（藏身在秘密面纱后的树状网）更难抽身。Created equal 建立公平制度Equity investors, for their part, have benefited from new rules for publicly traded companies brought in by the So Paulo stock exchange (Bovesp

49、a) in 2002. Big Brazilian companies used to be notorious for abusing shareholders with minority stakes. Under current guidelines, it is illegal to issue shares that pay out different amounts to different holders in the event of a takeover. Any disputes between shareholders are judged by the CVM. With these rules in place, foreigners have been happy to buy shares and Brazilian companies that were unable to borrow in capital markets are now able to finance their expansion.适用于公开上市公司的新法规在 2002 年引进圣保罗股市（Bovespa）后，股票投资人亦因而获利。巴西大型企业过去因坑杀持股少数的小股东而臭名昭彰。根据现今规范，在