通用＆＃６５３８０；大众受挫中国.doc

1、1通用；大众受挫中国容易赚钱的好景不再 大众汽车与通用汽车都是抢先登陆中国的汽车巨头通用于1997年在上海成立合资企业,大众更在 21年前就进驻中国一直以来,它们支配着中国汽车市场,但现在却碰上了劲敌 根据市场研究机构 CSM WORLDWIDE的估计,韩国现代汽车在推出价位13600美元的伊兰特,一炮打响中国市场后,与去年同期相比,今年第一季在中国的销售量激升 156%广州本田汽车推出 10360美元的飞度后,销量也增加了 76%而中国本土品牌奇瑞车厂,也凭着售价3600美元的汽车,业绩增长 42% 对比现代本田奇瑞的亮眼成绩,大众和通用就黯淡多了大众汽车在中国的市场占有率从 2001年的

2、40%跌至去年的不到 20%,今年第一季的销售量更暴跌近 2/3同一时间,通用汽车上海厂的业绩也下降了 35%,它在中国市场的获利惨跌 80%,只剩下 3300万美元 出现这种情况的原因其实很简单:几年前,中国市场的汽车买主大多是国营企业,它们不在乎价钱,而今天的买车族,则主要是对价钱“斤斤计较”的个人但除此之外,通用和大众还要面对更深层的问题它们虽因率先进入市场而享有高关税保护之利,但高关税使它们2不重视必要的成本削减,还迫使它们接受严格的限制譬如中国方面规定,大众必须为它在中国的两个厂设立各别的分销网络,通用应将重心置于高价位车等等相比之下,有关部门对本田和现代的干预就少得多至于奇瑞,更是

3、全无此类困扰此外,新进驻的厂商,也在市场研究上做得较踏实以伊兰特为例,就有适合中国较崎岖路面的强化底盘,还有免提手机装置,以争取中国热爱手机的消费者随着中国市场潜能迅速增长,竞争也将加剧奇瑞在今年 4月的上海车展上展出了好几种新款,现代也计划在明年推出 3款新车福特打算再投入 10亿美元,在南京设新引擎厂,在重庆增设新生产线日产也计划增加 250个代理商面对这样的态势,通用与大众正全力应战,其中最引人瞩目的行动就是更换它们在中国的管理高层两家公司也在强化小型车业务,并且宣布将大举削减成本,呼吁更多供应商将厂房移入中国 在新对手极具野心的挑战下,竞争无疑会更加激烈,对通用和大众来说,过去在中国容

4、易赚钱的好景已经不再 通用遇上大麻烦 事实上,通用的麻烦远不止于此,就连它今年第一季亏损 11亿美元的事实也不过是其问题的冰山一角在庞大退休金和年金给付的包袱下,美国通用汽车公司每销售一辆汽车必须支付 1600美元的额外成本3自 2000年以来,通用的市值已经损失了 74%,汽车销售上频传败绩投资不足使它在科技与设计上跟不上脚步,导致价格上无法对抗韩国人,品质上对抗不了日本人,性能上更输给了欧洲人以今年推出的庞蒂克 G6为例,只有基本的四速传动与廉价的塑料内装,面对丰田的佳美本田的雅阁或日产的 Altima,庞蒂克自然不是对手在丰田日产等对手夹击下,上一季就连美国本土市场上通用的销售额也跌了

5、5.2%市场占有率不断下降,导致通用亏损不断增加,美林分析师认为,一旦通用的市场占有率低于 25%,情况将急剧恶化 目前,通用已经陷入了制造成本高于售价的负增长窘境在一般情况下,处于如此困境的公司可以采用紧缩裁员的方式渡过难关,但通用却很难这么做,因为根据与工会的协议,除非支付巨额罚款,否则它不能关闭工厂或解雇工人,通用今天的困境,有相当一部分出于此,而通用工会的强势更是业界闻名从另一个角度来看,作为汽车巨头的通用 70多年来在汽车销售方面从来没有屈居人后,全球第一的心态已经深植这家车厂的基因中,要它大刀阔斧采取精简缩编的策略,简直不可能 回头来看丰田日产与本田这些成功的车厂,许多做法和通用完

6、全不同,它们将研究经费集中于少数车款,加入最新特性和科技,在低成本没有工会包袱的工厂制造,并且在创新方面不遗余力数字说明一切,去年,通用的资本与研发开支为 70亿美元,但丰田高达 1534亿美元;通用在北美有 89种车款和 8个部门,丰田仅有 26种车款和 3个部门在美国,丰田每年每种车款平均卖出 8万辆,而且平均每 3年重新设计一次,通用只卖出 5万辆,而且近 4年才设计一次 通用前执行长斯隆曾说过这样一段话:“一家汽车制造业者,无论规模多大,或根基多深,若是冥顽不化,不能求新求变,都将受到市场严惩”当时斯隆谈的是竞争对手亨利?福特,但这番话今天同样适用于通用不过,通用汽车在短期内还不至于破

7、产,因为它拥有 198亿美元的现金债券以及基金可用,当中还不包括 83亿美元的银行融资但如果通用不能大幅度改变当前的做法,这些钱不出几年就会耗尽,届时难免大难临头通用高层已经意识到问题的严重性,陆陆续续推出一些改变,比如计划关闭两家车厂,以缓解生产过剩的问题,但力度显然不够 那通用究竟怎么做才能健全发展呢?它应该至少将组装厂减少 5个,将北美产能从目前的年产 510万辆减少到 400万辆,而且应该在必要时解雇工人,让员工依靠政府的失业救济一旦获利能力提升,它才能在研发上增加投资另外,通用应该将车款减少 1/3,可以由雪佛兰经营卡车和平价市场,由土星凭借设计优势负责行销昂贵车款,还应该重新打造凯

8、迪拉克,凭先进科技主攻豪华车市场 During the Shanghai Auto Show in late April, Volkswagen and General Motors Corp. put on a brave face. At Volkswagens 50,000-square-foot stand, car buffs could sample tropical fruit, 5salmon, and chocolate in the VIP room while ogling the new 200-horsepower Golf GTI and the Audi A6L-

9、a China-only version thats four inches longer than the standard A6 to make the backseat roomier for execs with drivers. At GMs display, models in slinky outfits posed beside the chiseled 3.6-liter Cadillac CTS, the new Chevrolet Aveo compact sedan, and-to give Chinese buyers a taste of GMs former gr

10、andeur-a 59 Cadillac Eldorado. But all the flash in the world cant hide the challenges the two companies face in China. Both came early to the mainland-GM formed its Shanghai joint venture in 1997, while VW arrived 21 years ago-and quickly dominated the market. But now theyre getting trounced by new

11、 entrants offering smaller, cheaper cars. Led by the success of its Elantra compact, starting at $13,600, Hyundai Motor Co.s China unit sales soared by 156% in the first quarter over the same period last year, according to market researcher CSM Worldwide. Guangzhou Honda Motor Co. sold 76% more cars

12、 as buyers snapped up its $10,360 Fit. And domestic champ Cherys sales climbed 42%, driven by the explosive response to its $3,600 QQ. VW, meanwhile, has seen its 2001 market share of 40% tumble to less than 20% last year, as car sales plunged by nearly two-thirds 6in the first quarter. GMs unit sal

13、es from its Shanghai operation-its biggest China venture-dropped 35% in the quarter, and its overall profits in China plummeted 80%, to $33 million. The reason for the shift is simple. Just a few years ago most auto sales were to state-owned companies that didnt worry much about price. Today most bu

14、yers are individuals who want the best deal for their money. And rumors that Beijing is considering a tax on vehicles with big engines are only accelerating the trend. Now the common people are buying cars, says Yale Zhang, head of CSMs Shanghai office. They want affordable, small ?眼 vehicles?演, of

15、good quality and with a good brand. The problems at GM and VW, though, go deeper than just the change to more modest cars. As first movers, the two benefited from high tariffs that kept out imports and allowed them to milk the market for immense profits. But the tariffs also allowed them to avoid ne

16、cessary cost-cutting. And they faced cumbersome restrictions from Beijing. Volkswagen, for example, had to develop a separate distribution network for each of its two China manufacturing operations. It was a mistake of the past, says Bernd Leissner, president of Volkswagen Group 7China. And Beijing

17、demanded that GM focus largely on the expensive Buick Regal. Honda and Hyundai, by contrast, have been able to get into China with far less meddling from Beijing, while locals such as Chery have seen little interference from bureaucrats. Theres more competition coming, too. Capacity in China is expe

18、cted to grow by as much as 30% this year. Chery showed off a range of new models at the Shanghai show including a sporty concept car called the S16. Hyundai plans to introduce three models to China over the next year and intends to invest $1.1 billion by 2008 to triple its annual production capacity

19、, to 600,000, from this years 200,000. Ford Motor Co. is planning to invest $1 billion in a new engine plant in Nanjing and a new production line for its four-door Focus sedan at an existing factory in Chongqing. Nissan Motor Co. wants to add 250 new dealerships, to bring its total to 400, and hopes

20、 to boost sales to 350,000 cars by 2007, up from an expected 140,000 this year. In response, both GM and VW are moving to revamp their operations, most notably by replacing top management in China. VW announced in April that Winfried Vahland, currently deputy chairman of the Board of Management at s

21、ubsidiary Skoda Auto, 8will take over this summer for Folker Weissgerber, its board member responsible for China. China head Leissner is preparing to retire this year. At GM, long-time China Chief Philip Murtaugh, who over saw the flagship Shanghai venture from the start, stepped down in March. Both

22、 GM and VW are looking to beef up their offerings of smaller cars. VW already sells its $9,000 Golf and $12,000 Polo in China and is planning at least two new models annually. VW CEO Bernd Pischetsrieder, though, says the company doesnt want to get into a price war that would destroy margins. Market

23、 share ?眼 in China?演 is important for us, but not at any price, he told shareholders at VWs annual meeting in Hamburg on Apr. 21. And GM is pushing its sub-S8,000 Chevy Spark-a car that, GM says, Chery copied with its QQ. (Chery declines to comment on the case; a lawsuit on the issue is pending). Un

24、it sales of the Spark tripled in the first quarter, although they remain less than 25% of QQ volumes. For its part, GM predicts double-digit sales growth this year, saying market share even inched up in the first quarter. Both GM and VW have outlined ambitious cost-cutting programs, and both are urging more suppliers to produce in the mainland as well. The competition, though, is sure to increase 9as the newcomers keep chipping away at the early leaders. China used to be an easy game. Not anymore. (By Dexter Roberts )