2错误因果.doc

1、3.The 15% decline that the author cites is not necessarily due to the vocational preferences of new law-school graduates. It is entirely possible that the number of new graduates preferring to work for large firms has not declined, but that during the last three years Megalopolis large firms have ha

2、d fewer job openings for these graduates. Since the article fails to account for this alternative explanation for the 15% decline, the articles author cannot make any sound recommendations to law firms based on that decline.19.Assuming that the Megalopolis success was in fact due to DRs popularity t

3、here, the manager overlooks the possibility that Ad Libs campaign had nothing to do with that popularity. Perhaps the band recently became overwhelmingly popular due to a new hit song or a revival of the type of music DR plays. Either scenario, if ture, would serve to undermine the managers claim th

4、at Ad Libs efforts are to be credited for the Megalopolis success.26.The chairperson unfairly assumes that the three band awards were attributable to Schades abilities and efforts. Lacking evidence to confirm this assumption, it is entirely possible that Schade was not the schools band instructor wh

5、en the band won these awards. Or, perhaps the band won all three awards early in Schades tenure, and his predecessor is to be credited. For that matter, perhaps it was the improved quality of the bands musical instruments that should be credited for the awards. After all, the chairperson provides no

6、 evidence that Schade was actually responsible for this improvement. Without considering and ruling out other possible reasons why the band won the awards the chairperson cannot convince me of Schades abilities or, in turn, that he should be appointed to the district job.142.Even assuming that the s

7、tudy is statistically reliable, a direct correlation between a high-iron diet and heart disease does not necessarily prove that the former causes the latter. While a high correlation is a strong evidence of a causal relationship, in itself it is not sufficient. The author must also account for all o

8、ther possible factors leading to heart disease, such as genetic propensity, amount of exercise, and so forth. Lacking evidence that the heart-disease sufferers whom the study observed were similar in all such respects, the author cannot justifiably conclude that a high-iron diet is the primary cause

9、, or even a contributing cause, of heart disease.Similarly, a correlation between a diet that includes large amounts of red meat and heart disease does not necessarily infer a causal relationship.It is possible that red-meat eaters are comparatively likely to incur heart disease due to factors that

10、have nothing to do with the amount of red meat in their diet. Perhaps red-meat eaters are the same people who generally overeat, and it is obesity rather the consumption of red meat specifically causes heart attacks. The author must consider and eliminate this and other possible reasons why red-meat

11、 eaters are more likely than other people to suffer from heart disease. Otherwise, I cannot accept the authors implicit claim that eating red meats is any more likely to cause heart disease than eating other food.156.The ad relies on the unsubstantiated assumption that the Mega employees attending t

12、he seminar are positioned to influence Megas sales and its customer relations. Perhaps these new employees were hired for production, editorial, personnel positions that have nothing to do with customer relations and that have only an indirect and negligible impact on sales. Without providing eviden

13、ce that these new employees directly influence Megas customer relations and sales, I cannot accept the argument that the Dickens seminar was responsible for any of Megas sales or customer-relations improvements subsequent to the seminar.173.The fact that the magazines poorest-selling issues were the

14、 ones with international cover stories might be explained by a variety of factors. Perhaps international events themselves were not as interesting during those periods. If so, it might be a mistake to refrain from emphasizing international events when those events are interesting enough to stimulate

15、 sales. Or perhaps the news magazine is seasonal, or cyclical, and those particular issues would have sold more poorly regardless of the cover story. In short, without ruling out other possible explanations for the relatively poor sales of those particular issues the publisher cannot justifiably con

16、clude that international cover stories were the cause of the relatively poor sales.220.Even if the statistics cited accurately reflect the amount of television people watch compared to the number of fiction, it would be hasty to infer based merely on this fact that the television industry is more pr

17、ofitable than the book-publishing industry. To begin with, the studys results excluded any data about nonfiction booksa category that might very well constitute books publishers main profit source. Moreover, the author has not showm any correlation, let alone a cause-and-effect relationship, between

18、 the number of hours a person spends watching television and that industrys profits. In any event, lacking financial statistics about the profitability of the two industries the editorials author cannot convince me that writers should follow the authors recommendation. 224.One problem with the argum

19、ent is that the letters author might be assigning a false cause to these statewide trends. The author provides no evidence that Riedeburgs policies and actions as governor were indeed the reason for these developments. Without such evidence, it is equally possible that other factors are instead resp

20、onsible for the trends. For instance, perhaps the crime rate has declined due to legislative or judicial action over which Riedeburg had no control. Perhaps the rise in the states population is the result of sociological trends that have nothing to do with Riedeburgs policies as governor. Or perhaps

21、 people are moving to the state for other reasons, such as the states climate. Moreover, the argument assumes that an increase in population is a positive development in the first place; yet it is entirely possible that the states residents properly view this trend as a negative one. If so, and if R

22、iedeburgs policies have contributed to this trend, then the author cannot reasonably conclude based on this evidence that Riedeburg is the best-qualified candidate.The author fails to establish the causal relationship between A and B.The author fails to convince us that A contribute B.The author provides no evidence that A is the reason for B.