工业大气污染的Laspeyres分解模型及其在中国的应用尚红云.ppt

1、Laspeyres Decomposition Model of Industry Atmosphere contaminations and Its Implication in ChinaShang Hongyun,1 .Introduction * Literature summary This part includes the international application of the I-O structure decomposition analysis(SDA) technology in environment problem.* Put forward the pro

2、blems I will settle in my paper and clarify the research importance I use forward I-O model to do SDA to the change of the industry atmosphere contaminations emission between the year 1997 and 2002 in my country, anatomy the technological and economical factors affecting industry atmosphere contamin

3、ations in China, embody the effect degree of economy increase on the change of the industry atmosphere contaminations emission. The research results will put forward reference for environment related policy., 2. The I-O analysis under the NAMEA system The expression of the standard I-O model for n d

4、epartments is: (1)q is n dimension list vector, and is the total output vector, y is n dimension final demand list vector , I is nn unit matrix, is named Leontief inverse matrix.,For the given total output vector q, the industry atmosphere contaminations emission level can be expressed: E=Vq (2) Put

5、 Formula1 into Formula 2, we can get the emission function of atmosphere contaminations: E=V y y (3) is called the total contamination emission intension matrix.,I-O model (3) can not only identify the direct reason inducing contamination, but also can extrude the indirect function of mid input., 3.

6、 Industry department classification and price adjustment,* Industry department classification and disposal The article uses SO2, soot and powder as the demonstration research objects. We split and incorporate industry departments so that thirteen industries are formed.* Price adjustment of the gener

7、al output and the final demand The paper takes the industry price index of 1997 as the comparable price and adjusts the final demand and the general output of each industry department of 2002 to the price of 1997., 4.Laspeyres decomposition model and its application At time t, the emission amount of

8、 contaminations can be expressed: （5）The change of atmosphere contaminations in Formula (5) can be decomposed to the change of three factors. The first effect is called technological effect, including the unit effects of v and the change of Leontief inverse matrix, which is called the total emission

9、 intension or the change of emission cost offered to different goods and service, but also some scholars think about this two factors related with the change of science and technology separately; The second effect is the change of the final demand structure or component; The third effect is the chan

10、ge of the final demand volume or level.,（6）,means the change of the total contaminations emission induced by the change of technological development on the condition that the final demand structure and the final demand volume are unchanged. means the change of the total contaminations emission by th

11、e final demand structure on the condition that the technology and the final demand volume are unchanged. means the change of the total contamination emission induced by the final demand volume on the condition that the technology and the final demand structure are unchanged.,The decomposition method

12、 of Formula (6)is called Laspeyres decomposition method(Laspeyres decomposition method is short for L method), and the decomposition result is called Laspeyres decomposition model.,But there is a big error between the calculated result and the administration statistical datas. Perhaps it is because

13、the Laspeyres decomposition method of Formula (6) cant give the complete decomposition. When the different factors change greatly, “residual error” or in more correct speaking, the effect of “interaction” may be very big. In order to decrease or avoid the effect of interaction, it needs plenty of re

14、searches to apply other decomposition methods., 5.“Exact” Laspeyres decomposition model and its implication,We can find that the influence of the technological effect is bigger than the other two, which results in the emission of SO2 is 40.4 percent less, the emission of soot is 41.39 percent less,

15、and the release of powder is 53.45 percent less in 2002 than in 1997. The final demand volume effect of the three atmospheric contaminations all counteract the influence of technological effect, which results in the emission of SO2 is 33.02 percent more, the emission of soot is 33.33 percent more, a

16、nd the emission of powder is 31.82 percent more in 2002 than in 1997., 6 ConclusionFrom the demonstration analysis results above, it is not difficult to get the conclusion below: the development of technology can slow down the pressure of environmental contaminations, final demand structure effect i

17、nfluences the environment more complicated, and final demand volume effect can prick up environmental deterioration. So the best selection to decrease contaminations is the development of technology. As long as technological effect is big enough, it can counteract the influence of final demand struc

18、ture effect and final demand volume effect.,QuestionsIt should be emphasized that error is still existed about this “Exact” Laspeyres decomposition model. The paper uses this method to analyse the economic and the social elements resulting in environment contamination and their influence degree, which help us to put forward policy to decrease contamination. More exact and more fitful decomposition models need to be discussed.,Thanks,