交易心理分析.doc

1、1TRADING IN THE ZONE交易心理分析版本：2008 年 09 月 26 日，日期越新，内容越完美。张轶翻译，。本翻译内容仅供投资者学习用，不可用于任何商业目的，张轶不负任何法律责任。MASTER THE MARKET WITH CONFIDENCE, DISCIPLINE AND A WINNING ATTITUDE用自信、纪律和赢家的态度来掌握市场MARK DOUGLAS马克道格拉斯Foreword by Thorn Hartle索恩哈特尔作序NEW YORK INSTITUTE OF FINANCE纽约金融学院Library of Congress Cataloging-i

2、n-Publication Data议会图书馆出版物Douglas, Mark (Mark J.)马克道格拉斯Trading in the zone : master the market with confidence, discipline, and a winning attitude / by Mark Douglas, p. cm.交易心理分析用自信、纪律和赢家的态度来掌握市场/作者：马克道格拉斯ISBN 0-7352-0144-7 (cloth)1. Stocks. 2. Speculation. I. Title.本书类别：股票，投机HG6041 .D59 2001332.64

3、- dc21 00 045251 2000 by Prentice Hall普林蒂斯霍尔出版公司 2000 年版权All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any form or by any means, without permission in writing from the publisher.2如果没有出版社的书面许可，本书任何部分都不可以用任何形式复制。Printed in the United States of America印刷地：美国10 9876 5 4321This publicati

4、on is designed to provide accurate and authoritative information in regard to the subject matter covered. It is sold with the understanding that the publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting, or other professional service. If legal advice or other expert assistance is required, the ser

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8、and NEW YORK INSTITUTE OF FINANCE are trademarks of Executive Tax Reports, Inc. used under license by Prentice Hall Direct, Inc.3纽约金融学院是普林蒂斯霍尔出版公司注册的纳税公司的注册商标。DEDICATION献词This book is dedicated to all of the traders I have had the pleasure of working with over the last 18 years as a trading coach. E

9、ach of you in your own unique way is a part of the insight and guidance this book will provide to those who choose to trade from a confident, disciplined, and consistent state of mind.本书献给过去 18 年来我所认识的所有交易者，作为交易教练，我和他们在一起很快乐。你们中的每一个人用自己独特的方式，为本书提供见解和指导，引导那些用自信、纪律和持续一致思想交易的人们。TABLE OF CONTENTS目录FOREW

10、ORD .3序言 .3PREFACE.5引子 .5ATTITUDE SURVEY .9态度调查表 .9CHAPTER 1 THE ROAD TO SUCCESS: FUNDAMENTAL, TECHNICAL, OR MENTAL ANALYSIS?.14第 01 章 成功之路：基本面，技术面或思想分析面？ .14IN THE BEGINNING: FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS .14开始：基本面分析 .14THE SHIFT TO TECHNICAL ANALYSIS .16转到技术分析 .16THE SHIFT TO MENTAL ANALYSIS.18转到思想分析 .18CH

11、APTER 2 THE LURE (AND THE DANGERS) OF TRADING.32第 02 章 交易的诱惑（和危险） .32THE ATTRACTION.32吸引 .32THE DANGERS.36危险 .36THE SAFEGUARDS.41安全措施 .41PROBLEM: The unwillingness to Create Rules .44问题：不愿意制定原则 .44PROBLEM: Failure to Take Responsibility.46问题：不负责任 .464PROBLEM: Addiction to Random Rewards .48问题：对随机的回报

12、上瘾 .48PROBLEM: External versus Internal Control.49问题：外部控制对抗内部控制 .49CHAPTER 3 TAKING RESPONSIBILITY.51第 03 章 自己承担责任 .51SHAPING YOUR MENTAL ENVIRONMENT.52塑造你的思想环境 .52REACTING TO LOSS.57对亏损的反应 .57WINNERS, LOSERS, BOOMERS, AND BUSTERS .71赢家，输家，暴发户和亏损者 .71CHAPTER 4 CONSISTENCY: A STATE OF MIND.79第 04 章 持

13、续一致性：一种思想状态 .79THINKING ABOUT TRADING.80考虑交易 .80REALLY UNDERSTANDING RISK .83完全明白风险 .83ALIGNING YOUR MENTAL ENVIRONMENT.87让你的思想持续一致 .87CHAPTER 5 THE DYNAMICS OF PERCEPTION .87第 05 章 认知的动力 .87DEBUGGING YOUR MENTAL SOFTWARE .87为你的思想软件找茬 .87PERCEPTION AND LEARNING .87认知和学习 .87PERCEPTION AND RISK .87认知和

14、风险 .87THE POWER OF ASSOCIATION .87联想的力量 .87CHAPTER 6 THE MARKETS PERSPECTIVE .87第 06 章 市场的角度 .87THE “UNCERTAINTY” PRINCIPLE.87“不确定” 原则 .87MARKETS MOST FUNDAMENTAL CHARACTERISTIC (IT CAN EXPRESS ITSELF IN AN ALMOST INFINITE COMBINATION OF WAYS ).87市场最基本的特征（它几乎可以用任何组合方式来表达自己） .87CHAPTER 7 THE TRADERS

15、EDGE: THINKING IN PROBABILITIES.87第 07 章 交易者的优势：考虑概率 .87PROBABILITIES PARADOX: RANDOM OUTCOME, CONSISTENT RESULTS .87概率的似非而是：随机的结果，持续一致的收入 .87TRADING IN THE MOMENT.875有机会就交易 .87MANAGING EXPECTATIONS .87管理期望 .87ELIMINATING THE EMOTIONAL RISK.87消灭情绪风险 .87CHAPTER 8 WORKING WITH YOUR BELIEFS.87第 08 章 和信

16、念一起工作 .87DEFINING THE PROBLEM.87给问题下定义 .87DEFINING THE TERMS.87对几个说法下定义 .87HOW THE FUNDAMENTAL TRUTHS RELATE TO THE SKILLS.87这些基本事实和技术如何联系起来 .87MOVING TOWARD “THE ZONE”.87进入这个“状态” .87CHAPTER 9 THE NATURE OF BELIEFS.87第 09 章 信念的天性 .87THE ORIGINS OF A BELIEF.87信念的来源 .87BELIEFS AND THEIR IMPACT ON OUR

17、LIVES .87信念和信念对我们生活的影响 .87BELIEFS VS. THE TRUTH.87信念对抗事实 .87CHAPTER 10 THE IMPACT OF BELIEFS ON TRADING.87第 10 章 信念对交易的影响 .87THE PRIMARY CHARACTERISTICS OF A BELIEF .87信念的基本特点 .87SELF EVALUATION AND TRADING .87自我评估和交易 .87CHAPTER 11 THINKING LIKE A TRADER.87第 11 章 像交易者一样思考 .87THE MECHANICAL STAGE.87机

18、械阶段 .87THE ROLE OF SELF-DISCIPLINE.87自律的作用 .87CREATING A BELIEF IN CONSISTENCY.87创造一个相信持续一致性的信念 .87EXERCISE: LEARNING TO TRADE AN EDGE LIKE A CASINO.87练习：向赌场学习利用优势交易 .87A FINAL NOTE .87最后的提醒 .87ATTITUDE SURVEY .87态度调查 .87INDEX.876英语索引（张轶略去） .87FOREWORD序言The great bull market in stocks has led to an

19、equally great bull market in the number of books published on the subject of how to make money trading the markets. Many ideas abound, some good, some not, some original, some just a repackaging of earlier works. Occasionally, though, a writer comes forward with something that really sets him or her

20、 apart from the pack, something special. One such writer is Mark Douglas.大牛市导致出版社出了很多书，这些书都是谈如何通过交易赚钱。有很多思想，有些很好，有些则不行，有些是原创的，有些只是把以前的作品再重新包装一下而已。偶尔，一些作者会脱颖而出，写出特殊的作品。其中一个作者就是马克道格拉斯。Mark Douglas, in Trading in the Zone, has written a book that is the accumulation of years of thought and research - t

21、he work of a lifetime - and for those of us who view trading as a profession, he has produced a gem.在马克道格拉斯的书交易心理分析中，展示了他多年的思想和研究一生的心血对于我们把交易当作职业的人来说，他给我们的是一块宝石。Trading in the Zone is an in-depth look at the challenges that we face when we take up the challenge of trading. To the novice, the only ch

22、allenge appears to be to find a way to make money. Once the novice learns that tips, brokers advice, and other ways to justify buying or selling do not work consistently, he discovers that he either needs to develop a reliable trading strategy or purchase one. After that, trading should be easy, rig

23、ht? All you have to do is follow the rules, and the money will fall into your lap.我们在交易时会遇到挑战， 交易心理分析则对这些挑战提供了深刻的见解。对于新手来说，唯一的挑战似乎就是找到赚钱的方法。当新手明白消息，经纪公司的建议和其它买卖方法都不能持续一致赢利时，他发现要么自己设计一个可靠的交易系统，要么去买一个。完成了这个任务，交易就简单了，对不？你要做的就是遵守原则，这样钱就来了。At this point, if not before, novices discover that trading can t

24、urn into one of the most frustrating experiences they will ever face. This experience leads to the oft-started statistic that 95 percent of futures traders lose all of their money within the first year of trading. Stock traders generally experience the same results, which is why pundits always point to the fact that most stock traders fail to outperform