1、Demand planning2016-4Michael WagnerIntroductionWhy is demand planning necessary? Large benefits which are achieved by Supply Chain Management are accredited to the reduction of inventories, esp. to the decrement of safety stocksWhat is the purpose of demand planning ?The purpose of Demand Planning i
2、s to improve decisions affecting demandaccuracy and the calculation of buffer or safety stocks to reach a predefinedservice level.What is main obstacles ?process uncertainty (e. g. unreliable production processes, fluctuating lead-times etc.) demand uncertainty (difference in planned or estimated de
3、mand and actual sales).CONTENTSFirst part Second part Third part Last partA demand planning frameworkStatistical forecasting techniquesIncorporation of judgmental factorsAdditional featuresA demand planning frameworkA demand planning frameworkproduct dimension: product product group product family p
4、roduct line;geographic dimension: customer sales region DC region/location;time dimension: different bucket size (days weeks years) and horizon.CONTENTSFirst part Second part Third part Last partA demand planning frameworkStatistical forecasting techniquesIncorporation of judgmental factorsAdditiona
5、l featuresStatistical forecasting techniquestime-series-analysiscausal modelsTwo basic approachesStatistical forecasting techniquesStatistical forecasting techniquestime-series-analysis causal modelsTwo basic approachesStatistical forecasting techniques1 Moving Average and Smoothing Methods2 Regression Analysis3 ARIMA/Box-Jenkins-methodThree most frequently used forecasting methods
