发展国际战略能力沃尔玛公司和西友公司第5部分财务分析【外文翻译】.doc

1、外文翻译DEVELOPINGINTERNATIONALSTRATEGICCAPABILITYWALMARTSTORESINCSEIYULTDPART5FINANCIALANALYSISMATERIALSOURCEBUSINESSCREDITAUTHORKIRIAKOSRISKANALYSISANDFAILUREPREDICTIONALTMANZSCOREISAMEASUREOFACOMPANYSHEALTHWHENCOMPARINGZSCORESCOMPARABLEFIRMSSHOULDBEUSED,FORINSTANCETHOSEWITHINTHESAMEINDUSTRYFORMULA12X

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7、TEDTOPROVIDEARETURNABOUTEQUALTOTHEOVERALLRETURNOFALLSTOCKSINAMARKETINDEXWHENTHEMARKETINDEXCHANGESINVALUE,THESECURITYISLIKELYTOCHANGEBYTHESAMEAMOUNTASECURITYWITHABETAOVER10ISEXPECTEDTOCHANGEMORETHANANYCHANGESINTHEMARKETINDEXANDISTHEREFORERISKIERTHANAVERAGESECURITIESWITHABETABETWEEN00AND10AREEXPECTEDT

8、OCHANGEINVALUEWHENTHEMARKETINDEXCHANGES,BUTTOCHANGELESSTHANTHECHANGEINTHEMARKETALIMITATIONOFBETACANBEFOUNDINITSINABILITYTOMEASURERISKINABSOLUTETERMSTHUSCONCENTRATINGONLYTORISKINRELATIONTOTHEMARKETPIKEANDNEALE2006AGAINTHEOBSERVATIONMADEHEREISTHATSEIYUISEXTREMELYRISKYASANINVESTMENTTHEREFOREANTICIPATED

9、CHANGESINTHEMARKETWILLAFFECTITINACONSIDERABLEMANNERPOSITIVELYORNEGATIVELY,ALTHOUGHTHETABLEREVEALSTHATALLTHELEADINGRETAILERSSUFFERFROMTHESAMEMARKETRISKVOLATILITYWECANAPPLYTHECAPMTODERIVETHERATEOFRETURNREQUIREDBYSHAREHOLDERSINSEIYUTHETHREECOMPONENTSWHICHAREUSEDARETHERISKFREERATERF475THERISKPREMIUMONTH

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11、8475571045ROESEIYU2005162420041107732003DEC86962003129407420021618SOURCESEIYUANNUALREPORTS20022005ITAPPEARSTHATWMTSHOULDBEREQUIRINGARETURNTOITSINVESTMENTMINIMUMOF10,45WHENLOOKINGATTHERATIOSSUCHASROEOVEROURINVESTIGATEDERA20022005WECANDETERMINETHATTHEEXPECTEDRETURNSARENOTMATCHEDBYTHEACTUALRETURNSONEQU

12、ITY,APARTFROMYEAR2002ABASICUNDERLYINGASSUMPTIONOFCAPMISTHATINVESTORSADOPTAONEPERIODTIMEHORIZONFORHOLDINGSECURITIESNOTNECESSARYAYEAR,PIKEANDNEALE2006,ANELEMENTTHATISNOTEXPRESSEDINTHELITERATUREOFTHEINVESTMENTRESEARCHED,BUTWECANCONCLUDETHATTHEINVESTMENTUPTO2004DOESNOTSUPPORTADDITIONALFINANCINGBECAUSEIT

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14、THOSEOFTHEWHOLEMARKETEVIDENCESUPPORTINGDIVERSIFICATIONOFTHISMANNERPORTFOLIOTHEORYCOMETOWMTSDEFENSEATTHISPOINT,IFMARKETSARELESSTHANPERFECTLYCORRELATEDKAPLANIS1997CITEDINPIKEANDNEALE2006ITISPOSSIBLETOLOWERTHERISKBELOWTHATWHICHDEFINESRISKPROFILESRELATINGTOPURELYDOMESTICINVESTMENTANDRESEARCHHASSHOWNTHAT

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18、ANSTHATTHECOMPANYISLOOSINGMONEYONTHESHAREHOLDERSINVESTMENTTHEORETICALLYASTOCKSP/EINDICATESHOWMUCHINVESTORSAREWILLINGTOPAYPERYENOFEARNINGSTECHNICALLYINTHISCASETHECOMPANYISTHEONEWHOHASTOPAYTHEINVESTORSIFONLYINADDITIONWITHINTHECOMPANYSPER,THEMARKETREFLECTSTHECOMPANYSOPTIMISMCONCERNINGGROWTHPROSPECTSWHE

19、REFOROURCOMPANYTHEPROSPECTSDEPICTEDFROMTHEPERARENOTSHOWINGANYOPTIMISMATALL,APARTFROM2002WHEREPROBABLYTHEDECISIONOFWALMARTTOINVESTRAISEDEXPECTATIONS,BUTINLIGHTOFSHORTFALLSMENTIONEDABOVETHEPERDECREASEDDRAMATICALLYONTHEOTHERHANDWALMARTSPERSEEMSTOBEDECREASINGOVERTHEFIVEYEARSPANBUTWELLINSCOPEOFTHEINDUSTR

20、YAVERAGETHISCANBEATTRIBUTEDTOTHENATUREOFTHEUSMARKETWHEREITEARNS80OFITSPROFITS,TURNINGINTOAMATUREONEINTERNATIONALEXPANSIONCANBESEENUNDERTHISLIGHTASTHENEXTLOGICALSTEPFORWALMARTLIQUIDITYRATIOSINORDERTOMEASUREWMTSANDSEIYUSDEGREEOFLIQUIDITYORSOLVENCY,WEUSEDTHREERATIOSINTERESTCOVERAGERATIO,CURRENTRATIO,AN

21、DQUICKRATIOTHESETHREERATIOSWILLGIVEANINVESTORINSIGHTASTOANYDANGERSWMTANDSEIYUMIGHTRUNINTOWITHREGARDTOHAVINGCASHONHANDTOSERVICEIMMEDIATEOBLIGATIONSLIQUIDITYRATIOSSEIYUWALMARTQUICKRATIOCURRENTRATIOCASHINTERESTCOVERQRCRCIC200506808801201709028720040530731000170913172003DEC055075122200305107119901509324

22、82002029038252013102157SOURCEWMTANDSEIYUANNUALREPORTS20022005WMT,THELARGESTRETAILERINTHEWORLD,HASPLENTYOFFREECASHFLOWTOMEETITSANNUAL,SHORTTERMDEBTOBLIGATIONSITSINTERESTCOVERAGERATIOINCREASEDDRAMATICALLYFROM2002TO2005ONACCOUNTOFWMTSRAPIDLYGROWINGCFOALTHOUGHADJUSTMENTSHAVEBEENMADEFROMCAPITALIZINGOPERA

23、TINGLEASESWHICHBRINGSDOWNTHEINTERESTCOVERAGERATIOFROM280TO222,ITISSTILLAHIGHNUMBERANDITISEVIDENTTHATWMTDOESNOTHAVEMUCHSOLVENCYRISKATTHISPOINTINTIMEALTHOUGHITSQUICKANDCURRENTRATIOSEEMQUITELOWTHISISNOTAPROBLEMFORWMTSINCEITHOLDS64BOFCASHANDITSCFOWAS176BBOTHFIGURESFROM2005INOUROPINION,WMTISDOINGAGOODTHI

24、NGBYKEEPINGLOWLIQUIDITYRATIOS,BECAUSEITPRESSURESMANAGEMENTTOMANAGEWMTSCASHANDCASHFLOWSEFFICIENTLYANDPROVIDESLESSFREEDOMTOWASTECASHONINVESTMENTSTHATWILLIMPACTNEGATIVELYONTHERETURNTOSHAREHOLDERSROECONCLUDINGWECANASSUMESAFELYTHATWMTISABLETOFINANCEITSOPERATIONSANDSAFELYCONTINUETOINJECTFUNDSINTOITSSEIYUI

25、NVESTMENTFORSEIYUWECANOBSERVETHATITSINTERESTCOVERIFFALLINGSUBSTANTIALLYFROM2002ONWARDSREACHINGITSLOWESTLEVELIN2005,THISISINDEEDANINDICATIONWHICHALSOSUPPORTEDFROMOTHEREVIDENCEMENTIONEDABOVETHATTHECOMPANYWILLNOTBEABLETOSERVEITSINTERESTONDEBTTHESITUATIONISSLIGHTLYIMPROVEDWHENLOOKINGITSCURRENTRATIONSIGN

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27、OFDEFAULTALTHOUGHSTILLNOTOUTOFTHEDANGERZONEEFFICIENCYRATIOSWMTSANDSEIYUSDEGREEOFOPERATIONALEFFICIENCYCANBEMEASUREDBYCALCULATINGITSMARGINSGROSSMARGIN,OPERATINGMARGIN,ANDNETMARGINGROSSMARGINNORMALLYMEASURESHOWEFFICIENTLYAFIRMCANPRODUCEAPRODUCT,BUTINTHISCASESINCEWMTANDSEIYUARERETAILERS,GROSSMARGINMEASU

28、RESTHESPREADTHEYAREMAKESMAKINGONTHEPRODUCTSTHEYSELLMEANWHILE,OPERATINGMARGINWILLMEASUREHOWEFFICIENTLYTHEYCANBRINGTHESEPRODUCTSTOTHEIRMARKETSBELOWISABREAKDOWNOFTHEIRMARGINSOVERTIMEWALMARTGROSSMARGINNETSALESOPERATINGMARGINNETMARGIN20052396036200423458352003DEC2003232573420022215430SEIYUGROSSMARGINOPER

29、ATINGMARGINNETMARGIN2005110121192004890890352003DEC10710704720031451457182002181181116THEAVERAGEGROSSMARGINFORTHEJAPANESERETAILINDUSTRYOVERTHELASTFIVEYEARSWAS20ANDFORTHEUS25SUPPLYCHAINMANAGEMENTREVIEW2005THEAVERAGEOPERATINGMARGINFORTHEJAPANESERETAILINDUSTRYOVERTHELASTFIVEYEARSWAS5ANDFORTHEUS785SOURC

30、EWMTANDSEIYUANNUALREPORTS20022005ALLOFWMTSMARGINSAREINCREASINGOVERTIMEWEWOULDEXPECTTHATALLMARGINSSHOULDINCREASEATADECREASINGRATEINTHEFUTURE,APARTFROMWMTSINTERNATIONALSEGMENTSOPERATINGMARGINWHERESEIYUISINCLUDEDWEWOULDEXPECTTHISTONEARTHEWMTSTORESEGMENTSOPERATINGMARGINOF73SINCEWMTSMAJORSALESGROWTHCOMES

31、MAINLYFROMTHEINTERNATIONALSEGMENTATRENDWHICHSHOULDCONTINUE,ITISIMPORTANTTHATWMTINTERNATIONALCONTINUETOINCREASEITSOPERATINGMARGINTHISWILLBEONEOFTHEMAJORKEYFACTORSAFFECTINGWMTSOVERALLEARNINGSGROWTHINTHENEARFUTUREONTHEOTHERHANDINSEIYUGROSSMARGINSHAVEBEENLOWEREDFOR5CONSECUTIVEYEARSSIGNALINGTHEIRINABILIT

32、YTOEFFICIENTLYOPERATEEITHERINTHEIRPRICINGSTRATEGYALREADYMENTIONEDPROBLEMSADJUSTINGTOTHEEDLPBUSINESSMODELORTHEIRDIRECTCOSTSARETOOHIGHTHEOPERATINGMARGINALSOISDECREASINGOVERTHEFIVEYEARPERIODSHOWINGTHATTHEVARIABLECOSTSSUCHASWAGES,RAWMATERIALSAREINCREASINGOVERTIMEINADDITIONNETMARGINSINDICATETHATTHEABILIT

33、YOFTHECOMPANYSTOCONTROLITSCOSTSDIMINISHINGINCONCLUSIONINTERMSOFEFFICIENCYTHINGSDONOTSEEMTOBEWORKINGFORSEIYUALTHOUGHMYEXPECTATIONSWERETHATIN4YEARSTIMETHEINITIATIVESANDTOPMANAGEMENTPROVIDEDBYWALMARTWOULDATLEASTHAVESHOWEDMINORIMPROVEMENTSTHEREFOREWEHAVETOCONCLUDETHATSHAREHOLDERVALUEHASNOTBEENPOSITIVELY

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35、EARINGLONGTERMDEBTTOEQUITYRATIOSEIYUWALMART2005272594720043330462003DEC472200353344962002545319SOURCEWMTANDSEIYUANNUALREPORTS20022005THEPROVIDERSOFEQUITYDONOTENJOYAFIXEDREWARDEACHYEAR,BUTAREENTITLEDTOTHERESIDUALPROFITSAFTERALLOTHERREPAYMENTSINCLUDINGINTERESTCHARGESBECAUSETHEEXISTENCEOFLOANCAPITALIMP

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40、HDEBTHOLDERSANDEQUITYHOLDERS译文发展国际战略能力沃尔玛公司和西友公司第5部分财务分析资料来源商业信贷杂志作者克利阿克斯风险分析和故障预测奥特曼的Z分数是衡量一个公司是否健康的指标。当比较Z值时，可比公司应与同一行业人士进行比较。计算公式12X114X233X306X410X5X1（流动资产总额流动负债）/总资产X2留存收益/总资产X3营业收入/总资产X4总市值/总负债X5收入/总资产较高的Z值，违约概率较低。失败的概率如果Z值等于或高于30，则不大可能发生违约如果Z值是181和299之间，则无法确定是否发生违约如果Z值小于181，则违约可能性较高西友的财务状况评估看

41、起来非常严峻，但如果我们在它过去五年的财务表来看，与其余的主要零售商相比,我们觉得西友的评估更好。2004年风险估值沃尔玛西友永旺大荣公司大丸山田电机有限公司Z值173245214321690值052204108206172162来源（路透社2004年）BETA的资本资产定价模型（CAPM）使用希腊字母，在市场均衡时，要求证券报酬率与证券的市场风险成线性关系。证券的价格变动是因为他们的个人表现的变化，也因为整体市场的变化。投资者可以部分防止价格变动的风险，买了自己充分多元化的投资组合。（路透社2006年）BETA拥有一个可保护安全风险多样化（系统风险）的部分措施。贝塔被计算作为根据安全的历史回

42、归的常数。常数值被用于预测预期收益。贝塔演算适用在20个和60个月之间的月度历史数据。（路透社2006年）CAPM建议与的一个股票10测试版在作为拥有广泛的市场代表性的股票篮子方面具有大致相同的非分散风险。该股预计将提供一个回报约等于所有股票在市场指数的整体回报。当市场价值指数发生变化，安全性可能也会改变同样数额。一个安全有超过10是指有望更多的改变市场指数，因此市场指数比一般的风险高。当一个证券的值在00和10之间时将改变证券的价值，当市场指数变化时，证券价值改变较少。限制的可以在其无法衡量的风险中找到用因，而集中的常数则关系到市场绝对值的风险。再观察发现投资西友是非常危险的，因此在市场预期

43、的变化将影响其可观的方式（无论正面还是负面的），虽然该表显示，所有主导的零售商将遭受同一市场风险。我们可以运用CAPM模型，推导出西友股东需要的回报率。使用的三个组成部分是无风险利率RF475市场上的投资组合企业风险溢价28贝塔系数BJ204无风险利率在日本假设为三个月的国库券。在日本市场组合的风险溢价是从伦敦商业学校的演算中取得的。使用的贝塔系数是2004年由路透社提供的。IS计算公式为ERRFBJERMRF回报率475204（28）475571045。净资产收益率西友2005年16242004年1107732003年12940742002年1618来源（西田年度报告20022005）看来，

44、WMT应要求到其10个投资额最低45的回报。当我们在调查净资产收益率的时期（20022005年），我们可以确定，除了2002年，预期的回报找不到与股票的实际回报相匹配的比例。一个基本的CAPM假设是，投资者通过持有证券的一个周期的时间跨度（没有必要为一年），我们可以得出结论认为，投资至2004年为止，不支持额外的资金，因为它不执行，相应的不增加股东财富。虽然实证研究表明，它需要3至10年才有50的公司进入日本市场的投资制动。相比之下，沃尔玛的测试显示一个“防御性”的立场，这意味着，在其安全返回的变动往往低估了整个市场的回报率。这种方式多样化的证据可以证明投资组合理论来自销售商在防守的这一点上，

45、如果市场低于完全相关是有可能降低风险低于定义风险状况，有关纯粹的国内投资和研究表明，日本市场与美国（03）有低相关性。小康进程在日本市场上低风险的机会可能存在，但这一种变量如长期战略，公司的风险状况和时间变量的问题提了几个。比率分析房价收入比（市盈率）（市盈率）的比例是非常普遍的一种股票报价。这个数据是市场价格除以股份有限公司的产权。因此，这个比率反映了市场的预期值，由未来盈利的公司、构件组成，它集中反映了在最近的一个会计期间的业绩为每一普通股的收益提供的未来收益。P/E比率沃尔玛西友2005年19411322004年2551152003年296172002年343225在过去5年的行业平均数

46、为美国1691，日本2419。来源（WMT20022005年年度报告和西友）从西友的市盈率显示，几乎每项都是负的，说明该公司的确是不会连续四年产生盈利的，这意味着该公司正在失去股东投资的钱。理论上一只股票的P/E多少表示投资者愿意支付多少元每日。在这种情况下，公司是一个支付投资者的人（如适用）。此外，市场反映了该公司的乐观主义论的增长前景。除了在2002年可能决定投资沃尔玛，其他的从PER描绘的前景看来是不乐观的，但在上面提到的期望PER都是显著下降的。另一方面，沃尔玛的PER似乎是在这五年跨度减少，但远高于行业平均水平的范围。这可以归因于美国市场，它的收入的80的利润，转成一个成熟的性质。国

47、际扩张可以看出，在此领域的下一个沃尔玛合乎逻辑的步骤。流动资金比率为了测量沃尔玛和西友的流动性或偿债能力的程度，我们用三个指标利息覆盖率，流动比率和速动比率。西友沃尔玛速动比率流动比率现金利息倍数速动比率流动比率现金2005年0680880120170902872004年0530731000170913172003年0550751222003年0510711990150932482002年029038252013102157来源（WMT20022005年年度报告和西友）沃尔玛是世界最大的零售商，拥有充足的现金流，以满足其年度短期债务。沃尔玛是销售商快速增长的首席财务官，其利息覆盖比率从2002

48、至2005年大幅增加。虽然经过调整资本化经营租赁利息覆盖率已经从280降低至222，但它仍然是一个高数值，很明显，沃尔玛在这个时间点上没有非常多的偿债能力风险。尽管它的速动比率相当低，这不是一个问题，因为它持有沃尔玛6400万美元的现金和17600万美元的首席财务官（从2005年这两个数字）。在我们看来，保持低流动比率的沃尔玛正在做一件好事，因为它压力现金和现金流量，并提供有效减少浪费投资，这将影响到负向股东回报率的现金。最后我们可以安全地假设该沃尔玛能够安全地继续将营运资金注入到西友的投资基金中。对于西友我们可以观察到其利息覆盖会从2002年开始在2005年到达它的最低水平，这一个迹象的确也

49、可以从上述数据中看出，该公司将无法发挥其债务利息的支持。有一点可以改进情况，当看它的当前定量信号时当前财产可以弥补其流动负债，虽然文学上认为流动比率应该是接近1为最佳，但是沃尔玛能在相当短的股票时间将股票转换成现金。（彭德尔伯里和树林2004年）。而且同期速动比率表明它有能力改进，虽然还没有脱离危险区，但是他足以支付债务违约风险。效率比沃尔玛和西友的运作效率程度可以通过计算其利润率衡量毛利率，营业利润和净利率。毛利率通常衡量一个企业能否够有效地生产产品，但这在沃尔玛和西友是零售商的情况下，毛利率是衡量他们对自己生产的产品的销售情况。与此同时，营业利润将有效地衡量他们可以达到了怎样的市场。以下是他们的利润随时间分解表。沃尔玛毛利（的净销售额）营业利润率净利润率2005年23960362004年23458352003年12月2003年23257342002年2215430西友毛利率营运利润率净利率2005年110121192004年890890352003年12月1071070472003年1451457182002年181181116日本在过去五年零售行业的平均毛利率为20，而美国为25。（供应链管理评论2005年）。日本零售年平均营业利润率在过去五年期间为业界的5，而美国是7