金融危机蔓延与救援：欧盟的下一步棋怎么走？【外文翻译】.doc

1、CRISIS,CONTAGIONANDBAILOUTSWHATSNEXTFORTHEEUROPEANUNIONEUROPEANFINANCIALOFFICIALSFINALLYGOTOUTINFRONTOFSWIFTMOVINGMARKETDEVELOPMENTSONMAY10THBYLAUNCHINGAHUGE960BILLION750BILLIONEUROFINANCIALSTABILIZATIONPLANEXCEEDINGMOSTEXPECTATIONSTOBAILOUTGREECEANDENSURETHEVIABILITYOFTHEEUROPEANMONETARYUNION,ATLEA

2、STFORNOWSOMEOBSERVERSSAYTHEMOVEPREVENTEDAPOTENTIALFINANCIALMELTDOWNINWHICHCONCERNSOVERSOVEREIGNDEBTDEFAULTSWOULDHAVESWIFTLYLEDTOLARGESCALEBANKRUNSINSOMEEUROPEANCOUNTRIESMANYEXPERTSTHISWEEKEXPECTEDTHEPACKAGETOCONTINUETOCALMMARKETSATLEASTTEMPORARILYBYGUARANTEEINGMOSTSOVEREIGNANDSOMEPRIVATEDEBTINGREECE

3、ORBYPROVIDINGCREDITFOROTHERTROUBLEDMEMBERECONOMIESINTHEFUTURE,INCLUDINGPORTUGAL,SPAINANDIRELANDTHEBAILOUTWHICHALSOINCLUDESSOMEBILATERALLOANAGREEMENTS,USFUNDSANDDOLLARSWAPAGREEMENTSTHROUGHTHEFEDERALRESERVEHADTHEIMMEDIATEEFFECTOFSWEEPINGAWAYFEARSOFAPOSSIBLECOLLAPSEOFTHEEUROZONESFINANCIALSYSTEMSUCHANOU

4、TCOMEWOULDHAVESETOFFANEWROUNDOFRECESSIONINEUROPEANDMIGHTHAVEDRAGGEDTHEWORLDFINANCIALSYSTEMBACKTOTHEDEPTHSREACHED12TO18MONTHSAGOORWORSESOMECRITICSSTILLVIEWTHEOVERALLSTABILIZATIONPACKAGE,WHICHLEFTMANYDETAILSVAGUE,ASASHORTTERMFIXTHATULTIMATELYWILLFAILTOADDRESSDEEPPUBLICANDPRIVATEDEBTLEVELS,PRESSINGFISC

5、ALDEFICITSANDPERSISTENTINTERNALANDEXTERNALTRADEIMBALANCESONEEXPLANATIONFORWHYEUROPESFINANCIALAUTHORITIESDIDNOTACTSOONERTOAVERTPOTENTIALDISASTERTHELEADINGPLAYERINANYSTABILIZATIONMEASUREISGERMANY,BECAUSEOFTHESIZEANDSTRENGTHOFITSECONOMYBUTGERMANYWASCAUGHTUPINREGIONALELECTIONSINNORTHRHINEWESTPHALIATHATW

6、ERECRITICALTOTHEFUTUREOFANGELAMERKEL,THEGERMANCHANCELLOR,ANDHERCOALITIONMERKELAPPEAREDTOWANTTODELAYANYACTIONONTHEEUROPEANFINANCIALCRISISUNTILAFTERELECTIONSBECAUSEMUCHOFTHEGERMANELECTORATETAKESADIMVIEWONBAILOUTSFORCOUNTRIESTHOUGHTTOHAVEOVERBORROWEDANDOVERSPENTTHEELECTIONS,HELDTHISPASTWEEKENDASTHEBAIL

7、OUTMEASURESWEREBEINGWORKEDOUT,RESULTEDINASERIOUSDEFEATFORMERKELSCOALITIONANYWAY,ANDMERKELISNOWBEINGROUNDLYCRITICIZEDFORALLOWINGFINANCIALEVENTSINEUROPETOSKIDNEARLYOUTOFCONTROLOTHERSPOINTOUTTHATDELAYINGACTIONMAYHAVEMADETHEBAILOUTMORECOSTLYTOGERMANYANDOTHERSTHANITWOULDHAVEBEENEARLIER,ASBORROWINGCOSTSCL

8、IMBEDDRAMATICALLYINREACTIONTOSWIFTLYMOUNTINGPERCEIVEDRISKSINTHERUNUPTOTHEANNOUNCEMENTABOUTTHEEUROPEANAIDPACKAGE,WHARTONPROFESSORSMAUROFGUILLENBORNANDEDUCATEDINSPAINANDSAIKATCHAUDHURIBORNANDEDUCATEDINGERMANY,ANDJEANSALMONABORNANDEDUCATEDINFRANCE,FOUNDERANDCHAIRMANOFTHEEDITORIALBOARDOFPARISTECHREVIEW,

9、PARTICIPATEDINANINTERVIEWONTHELIKELYOUTCOMESFROMTHEFINANCIALCRISISFACINGGREECE,SOMEOFITSSISTERCOUNTRIESANDTHEEUROPEANMONETARYUNIONMOREGENERALLYHOWDIDEVENTSSPINSOOUTOFCONTROLHOWWILLTHEPOLITICSOFTHECRISISAFFECTTHEEUROZONESECONOMICPERFORMANCEANDWILLTHEREBESIMILARCRISESINTHEFUTUREGUILLEN,CHAUDHURIANDSAL

10、MONAADDRESSEDTHESEANDOTHERQUESTIONSASWELLASMANYLONGERTERMISSUESRELEVANTINTHEWAKEOFBAILOUTEFFORTSONMAY7,JUSTBEFORETHEHUGEFINANCIALSUPPORTPACKAGEWASANNOUNCEDMAUROGUILLENTHEBACKGROUNDTOALLOFTHISIS,OFCOURSE,ALITTLEBITMORETHAN10YEARSAGOWHENSOMEEUROPEANCOUNTRIESADOPTEDTHEEUROASTHEIRCURRENCYBUTTHEYDIDNTTHI

11、NKABOUTSITUATIONSINWHICHMAYBETHEADOPTIONOFACOMMONCURRENCYWOULDCREATESTRESSAND,INPARTICULAR,THEFACTTHATEVENTHOUGHTHEREISACOMMONCURRENCYINTHECENTEROFEUROPETHEREARENOMECHANISMSINPLACEREALLYTOMAKESURETHATALLTHECOUNTRIESAREPLAYINGBYTHESAMERULESANDTHATALLTHECOUNTRIESAREESSENTIALLYCOMPLYINGWITHSOMEBASICCRI

12、TERIA,WHICHAREHALFECONOMICANDHALFPOLITICALSOTHISISNOTJUSTABOUTECONOMICSITISALSOABOUTPOLITICSCRITERIAHAVINGTODOWITHBUDGETDEFICITSANDHAVINGTODOWITHTHEWAYINWHICHYOUAREMAKINGSUREYOURCOUNTRYCANREMAINCOMPETITIVEAFTERYOUHAVEESSENTIALLYGIVENAWAYAVERYIMPORTANTPOLICYOPTIONINYOURTOOLKIT,WHICHISTODEVALUEYOURCUR

13、RENCYINOTHERWORDS,YOUARESURRENDERINGYOURSOVEREIGNTYINTERMSOFYOURCURRENCY,WHICHMEANSTHATWHENYOUAREINHARDTIMES,YOUCANNOTDEVALUEINORDERTOBECOMEMORECOMPETITIVEBUTATTHESAMETIME,THEARCHITECTSOFTHISMONETARYUNION10YEARSAGODIDNTTHINKABOUTWHATSHOULDBEDONEINCASEONEORMORECOUNTRIESACTUALLYGETINTOTROUBLETHEYDIDNT

14、THINKABOUTWHATKINDSOFINSTITUTIONALARRANGEMENTANDDECISIONMAKINGPROCEDURESHOULDBEINPLACETOTACKLEACRISISTHATUNFORTUNATELYASALWAYSHAPPENSWITHTHESESOVEREIGNDEBTCRISESHASBUILTUPOVERAVERY,VERYLONGPERIODOFTIMEBUTTHECRISESUNFOLDVERYQUICKLYSOTHEROOTSOFTHESITUATIONARETOBEFOUNDINTHELASTFIVEYEARSOR10YEARSANDPROB

15、ABLYTHELAST15YEARS,SINCEGREECE,PORTUGAL,SPAINANDSOONBECAMEMEMBERSOFTHEEUROPEANUNIONINTHEMID1980SBUTTHEUNFOLDINGOFTHECRISISACTUALLYHASTAKENPLACEOVERJUSTAPERIODOFTWOMONTHSORTHREEMONTHSAND,THEREFORE,IFYOUDIDNTPLAN,ESPECIALLYINSTITUTIONALLY,FORTHESITUATIONTHENTHEREISNOWAYINREALTIMETHATYOUCANACTUALLYPUTI

16、NPLACETHEMECHANISMSTOCOPEWITHTHESITUATIONSAIKATCHAUDHURITHELATESTECONOMICCRISISSHOWSITSTIMETOCREATETHERIGHTINSTITUTIONSANDMECHANISMSFORDEALINGWITHTHEKINDSOFFINANCIALCRISESSEENINEUROPELASTWEEKWILLWESEEMORECRISESITHINKTHATINAGLOBALECONOMICSYSTEMWEWILLSEEMORECRISESTHATSJUSTTHENATUREOFITITHINKITISAGOODT

17、IMETOSTARTTHINKINGABOUTTHERIGHTINSTITUTIONSANDMECHANISMSATTHOSELEVELS,WHICHCANRESPONDTOTHESETYPESOFCRISESINANEFFECTIVEFASHIONANDTHATSBEENTHELESSONFROMTHEGLOBALFINANCIALCRISISITHINKTHATSTHELESSONFROMTHEGREECEPACKAGEITHINKTHATKNOWLEDGEREACHEDACERTAINLEVELINEUROPEANDTHATWEWILLSEEASTRONGRESPONSECOMINGFR

18、OMEUROPE,FROMGERMANY,FRANCEANDOTHERCOUNTRIESTHEYCANTLETTHEEUFAILITSTHAT“TOOBIGTOFAIL“TYPEOFCONCEPTAPPLIEDINASLIGHTLYDIFFERENTWAYGUILLNASYOUKNOW,THISISAVERYCONTROVERSIALISSUETHATUSEDTOBETHEWAYINWHICHTHEIMFINTERNATIONALMONETARYFUNDTENDEDTOOPERATE,ESPECIALLYINTHEBEGINNINGOFTHE1980SWHENACOUNTRYKNOCKEDON

19、THEDOORSAYING,“WECANTKEEPGOINGWENEEDABAILOUTWOULDYOUHELPUS”THEIMFTYPICALLYRESPONDEDBYSAYING,“SUREWEWILLHELPYOU,BUTBYTHEWAYYOUNEEDTOCHANGETHISORTHATVARIOUSECONOMICPOLICIES”THEIMFCAMEUNDERATTACKFORACTUALLYGOINGTOOFARINTERMSOFASKINGCOUNTRIESTODOCERTAINTHINGSTHAT,INSOMEINSTANCES,PROVEDTOBECOUNTERPRODUCT

20、IVESOITISTRICKYTHEREISAPROFESSOROFMANAGEMENTHEREATWHARTON,WITOLDHENISZ,INMYDEPARTMENTWHOHASDEMONSTRATEDTHATWHENYOUIMPOSEREFORMSFROMTHEOUTSIDE,WHENACOUNTRYISINDIRESTRAITS,ITISACTUALLYSOMUCHMORELIKELYTHATTHEREWILLBEABACKLASHAGAINSTTHOSEREFORMSITSNOTJUSTABOUTECONOMICSWECANTRYTOFIGUREOUTWHATISTHEBESTTEC

21、HNIQUEOFSOLUTIONWEHAVEGREATECONOMISTSHEREATWHARTONWHOCOULDTELLUSTHEBESTSOLUTIONFROMATECHNICALPOINTOFVIEWBUTSAIKATJUSTMENTIONEDTHATYOUALSONEEDTOTAKEINTOCONSIDERATIONWHATISPOSSIBLEPOLITICALLYPOSSIBLEANDTHENWHATAREGOINGTOBETHECONSEQUENCESOFTHISLOOKINGDOWNTHEROAD,DEPENDINGONHOWYOUPROCEEDNOWTHATSWHYATTHE

22、BEGINNINGIWASSAYINGYOUALSOHAVETOTAKEINTOCONSIDERATIONTHEPOLITICALCOSTORTHEPOLITICALBENEFITSORBOTHOFDOINGTHINGSINAPARTICULARWAYGREECE,FIRSTOFALL,WHATITNEEDSISTOTELLTHETRUTHITHASNTGREECENEEDSTOAVOIDTHESITUATIONINWHICHTHEYDONTEVENKNOWHOWMUCHMONEYTHEREISINTHECOUNTRYBECAUSETHEIRFISCALSYSTEMITSJUSTAPROBLE

23、MTHATTHEREISSOMUCHTAXEVASIONINTHECOUNTRYTHEYJUSTLETTHATPROBLEMGROWINANUNCONTROLLEDWAYTHATISALSOTRUEOFITALY,OFCOURSE,IDONTWANTTOSINGLEOUTGREECEASBEINGINSTITUTIONALLYADISASTERBUTITSEEMSTOBETHATTHEREAREALOTOFTHINGSINGREECETHATARENOTWORKINGPROPERLYBUTIFYOUTRYTOIMPOSEASOLUTIONFROMOUTSIDEITMAYNOTBETHATSUN

24、LIKELYTOBETHEBESTWAYOFDOINGITJEANSALMONALETMEGIVEYOUJUSTASENTENCE,WHICHWASGIVENBYFORMERPRIMEMINISTEROFFRANCE,ANDSOCIALISTLAURENTFABIUS,WHOLAUNCHEDTHEEUROIDEAHEWASATTHETOPOFGOVERNMENTHESAID,“WEHAVETOBEREALISTICWEHAVETOSEEREALLYWHATTHEPRESENTSITUATIONISINSTEADOFWHATWETHINKITSHOULDBE”ANDTHATWELOOKATTHE

25、SITUATION,NOTASITISBUTASITSHOULDBE,EXPLAINSALOTOFOURPROBLEMSINEUROPETHERESULTISTHATTHEPEOPLEHAVESOMEONETOBLAMETHEYBLAMETHEBANKSOFCOURSEANDTHEYBLAMEANYSCAPEGOATFORINSTANCE,IDONTKNOWWHETHERYOUHAVELOOKEDATTHERECENTELECTIONSINHUNGARYTHEFARRIGHTPARTYMADEALOTOFPOLITICALGAINSANDITISNOTONLYTHEREINFRANCETHER

26、ECENTLOCALELECTIONSRESULTEDINFRENCHCONSERVATIVEPOLITICIANJEANMARIELEPENANDHISVERYFARRIGHT,ALMOSTFASCIST,PARTYGETTINGMORETHAN15ALLOFTHATEXPLAINSTHATTHEPEOPLEDONOTKNOWEXACTLYWHATTODONOW,COMINGTOTHEEUROIDONTSEEHOWWECANGOAHEADWITHOUTMORECOORDINATIONSOMEKINDOFCOMMONPOLICYHAVINGCOMMONMONEYWITHOUTACOMMONFI

27、SCALPOLICYDOESNTREALLYMAKESENSEANDWITHOUTHAVINGACOMMONSOCIALSYSTEMDOESNTMAKESENSEATPRESENT,THEMINDOFTHEFRENCHPEOPLEIS“LETSDOSOMETHING,BUTTHEGERMANSWILLPAY”ANDFRENCHPRESIDENTNICOLASSARKOZYISQUITEGOODATTHATINCONVINCINGTHEMTOGETGERMANCHANCELLORMERKELTOPAYINSPITEOFHERPOLITICALSITUATIONTODAYWITHTHEINTERN

28、ATIONALFINANCIALCRISISONTHEREALECONOMICIMPACTOFINDEPTH,ENTERPRISEFUNDSMANAGEMENTFINANCIALSTRATEGYCHAINMANAGEMENTINTOTHETRADITIONALFINANCIALMANAGEMENTASAMAJORBREAKTHROUGHINTHETRENDWITHTHEGRADUALSPREADOFFINANCIALCRISIS,WEAKGLOBALECONOMICGROWTH,FURTHERINCREASEPRESSUREONTHEOPERATIONOFENTERPRISES,CAPITAL

29、CHAINTENSIONISSUESBECOMEMOREPROMINENTINTHISCASE,STRENGTHENINGFINANCIALMANAGEMENTANDIMPROVEEFFICIENCYINTHEUSEOFFUNDSHASBECOMEABUSINESSIMPERATIVEINCOMBINATIONWITHCHANGESINTHEENVIRONMENTOFFINANCIALRISKS,ACTUALCASESOFENTERPRISEFORTHECARRIER,WILLRAISEFUNDSTOFINANCETHESTRATEGICCORESTRATEGY,THEFUNDMANAGEME

30、NTWITHTHECOMBINATIONOFCORPORATECULTURE,ACOMPREHENSIVEBUDGETMANAGEMENTASAMEANSTOBUILDFUNDINGCHAINVIRTUOUSCIRCLEMECHANISMEXCELLENTFINANCIALMANAGEMENT,ENHANCETHEPROFITABILITYOFRAISINGCAPITALFUNDSABILITYTOIDENTIFYTHECHAINOFRISK,THUSFURTHERIMPROVINGTHEIRFINANCIALRISKPREVENTIONANDEARLYWARNINGMECHANISMGUIL

31、LENIWOULDTENDTOTHINKTHATITISNOTTHATLIKELYTHATTHEEUROZONEWOULDUNRAVELIDONTTHINKITISVERYLIKELYITSNOTVERYLIKELYBECAUSEALLITWOULDTAKEFORTHEWHOLETHINGTOBESAVEDISFORTHEGERMANSTOSENDAVERYCLEARSIGNALTHATTHEYARENOTGOINGTOLETTHATHAPPENIFTHINGSGETBADENOUGHINTHENEXTTWOORTHREEMONTHSTHATTHEREISADANGERTHATIDONTTHI

32、NKANYBODYSHOULDTAKEPLEASUREINSEEINGTHEEUROPEANMONETARYUNIONORTHEEUROPEANUNIONEXPERIENCINGDIFFICULTYQUITEFRANKLY,IAMDISMAYEDATTHEFACTTHATSOMECOMMENTATORS,ESPECIALLYINTHEPRESS,ARECOMINGVERYCLOSETOCELEBRATINGLIKESAYING,“WETOLDYOUTHATTHISWASGOINGTOHAPPENTOYOU,”ASIFTHISWOULDNTHAVEANYCONSEQUENCESONTHEECON

33、OMICRECOVERYHEREINTHEUNITEDSTATESOR,FORTHATMATTER,RECOVERYAROUNDTHEWORLDITWOULDHAVEDEVASTATINGCONSEQUENCESCHAUDHURIISTRONGLYAGREEWITHMAUROONTHISBECAUSEIREALLYTHINKTHATITISVERYUNLIKELYTHATTHEYWILLUNRAVELTHEEUROZONEOROTHERASPECTSOFTHEEUTHEBASICSITUATIONISNOWTHATWELIVEINAGLOBALLYINTERDEPENDENTECONOMICS

34、YSTEMITISNOTJUSTABOUTEUROPEITISABOUTTHEGLOBALFINANCIALMARKETSBEINGLINKEDITISABOUTEXPORTSHAPPENINGITISABOUTMARKETSOPENINGUPIFYOULOOKATPROCTORGAMBLESEARNINGSRESULTSDECLAREDVERYRECENTLY,ORIBMS,CLEARLYTHEIRRECOVERYISCOMINGFROMOTHERPLACESTHANTHEIRDOMESTICMARKETRIGHTNOWTHATSWHYTHEYAREPOSTINGRETURNSSOWHETH

35、ERWELIKEITORNOT,THEMARKETSARECONNECTEDANDTHESTOCKMARKETSARECERTAINLYSENDINGUSTHOSESIGNALSTHATSTHESITUATIONTHEQUESTIONBECOMESHOWCANWEBESTALIGNAND,PERHAPS,ADDRESSDISCREPANCIESITISTHEREATTHESOCIALLEVELITISATTHEECONOMICLEVELITISATTHEPOLITICALLEVELANDREALLYITISTHEINSTITUTIONS,LIKEWESEEINTHEFINANCIALSYSTE

36、M,WHICHHAVETOGETTOGETHERANDDEVELOPTHESEMECHANISMSITHINKTHERESNOCHOICETHEOTHERPOINTIWANTTOMAKEISTHATTHEREISASHORTTERMCONSIDERATION,AMIDTERMCONSIDERATION,ANDALONGTERMCONSIDERATION,WHICHHASBEENIMPLICIT,RIGHTYES,MERKELPARTYSUFFEREDAMAJORDEFEATINREGIONALELECTIONSLASTWEEKEND,WHICHWILLMAKEITHARDFORHERTOGOV

37、ERNFROMBERLINANDGERMANYASAWHOLEBUTTHEREAREMUCHLARGERIMPLICATIONSHEREFORTHESYSTEMIFITCOMESDOWNTOIT,THATNOTWITHSTANDING,HERFOCUSWILLBEONSAVINGTHEGERMANECONOMYBYSAVINGTHEEUITHINKTHEPOINTHEREISHOWCANWEACHIEVETHATINTEGRATIONINAMEANINGFULWAYITWOULDBEEASYIFALLNEWENTRANTS,IFTHEWEAKERECONOMIESINEUROPEINCLUDI

38、NGTHEEASTERNEUROPEANONES,WEREALSOFALTERINGATTHISSTAGETOMAKETHEARGUMENTTHATTHEWHOLEEUANDTHEEUROISAFAILEDEXPERIMENTBUTITSNOTTHECASETHECZECHREPUBLIC,SLOVAKIA,ROMANIAANDSOFORTHAREMUCHBETTERINTEGRATEDTHEYARETHELOWER“COST”PRODUCTIONCENTERS,OUTSOURCINGCENTERS,WITHHIGHEXPERTISEMINDYOUWITHINTHEEUANDITWORKSGR

39、EECEWASNOTINTEGRATEDFORTHEVARIOUSCOMPETITIVEREASONSORLACKTHEREOFTHATWEWERETALKINGABOUTSALMONADURINGTHESECONDWORLDWAR,WINSTONCHURCHILLCOULDGETTHEBRITISHPEOPLETOACCEPTVERYSTRONGMEASURESBECAUSEITWASFORTHEWARTHEPROBLEMINEUROPEISTHATPEOPLEDONOTFEELITISTHEWAR,ALTHOUGHITHINKITISTHEWARADIFFERENTTYPEOFWARAGA

40、IN,SORRYTOQUOTEMYFRENCHCOCITIZENSBUTONEOFTHEHEADSOFTHESOCIALISTPARTYSAIDLASTWEEKWHENTHEYHADTOVOTEINPARLIAMENT“FOR”OR“GAINST”GIVING6BILLIONTOGREECE,“EVENTUALLY,OKAY,WEAREGOINGTOVOTEFOR,BUTIMUSTSAYANDEMPHASIZETHEFACTTHATWEAREVERYMUCHAGAINSTTHEMEASURESTHATGREECEISTAKINGNOW”SOTHISISREALLYSERIOUSANDITHIN

41、KTHATONLYASETOFMEASURESWHICHWOULDREORGANIZETHEFINANCIALSYSTEMATTHEWORLDWIDELEVELWOULDHAVEAPSYCHOLOGICALIMPACTONTHEPOPULATIONSANDONTHEPEOPLEWHOVOTEUNLESSSOMETHINGLIKETHATHAPPENEDANDTHEUSHASTOTAKETHELEADNOTHINGCANHAPPENUNLESSPRESIDENTBARACKOBAMATOGETHERWITHTHEIMFSAYS,“OKAYENOUGHISENOUGHLETSSTARTSOMEVE

42、RYSTRONGMEASURES”GUILLENWHATISTHATGOINGTOMEANFORTHEDOLLARWELL,ITHINKAMERICANSALLOFUS,INOTHERWORDSAREGOINGTOHAVETOTHINKVERYHARDABOUTWHATWEAREDOING,ANDOURSTANDARDOFLIVINGISGOINGTOCOMEDOWNONAVERAGEITHINKTHISISINEVITABLEUNLESSWEBECOMEMORECOMPETITIVEITISABADTHINGTHATNOWWHENTHEREISUNCERTAINTYINTHEWORLD,TH

43、EDOLLARSUDDENLYBECOMESMOREVALUABLEBECAUSETHATISHURTINGSOMEOFTHEINCIPIENTEXPORTACTIVITIESGOINGINANDOUTOFTHISECONOMYSOITISACTUALLY,ITHINK,BADTHATTHISISHAPPENINGBUTPEOPLESEEMTOCELEBRATEITBECAUSESUDDENLYTHEDOLLARISALITTLEBITSTRONGERTHATISACTUALLYTHELASTTHINGTHATWEWOULDLIKETOHAVERIGHTNOWINTHEUSASTRONGDOL

44、LARWHATWENEEDISARELATIVELYWEAKDOLLARWENEEDTOREDUCETHETRADEDEFICITANDWENEEDTOBECOMEMORECOMPETITIVEANDIMPORTLESSTHISISACTUALLYPRODUCINGTHEWRONGSETOFINCENTIVESBUT,AGAIN,ITHINKTHEREARETOOMANY“IFS”ANDTOOMANYMOVINGPARTSINTHEQUESTIONSTHATWEREJUSTFORMULATEDAGAIN,ITHINK,RIGHTNOWGIVENTHATTHEHOTSPOTSEEMSTOBEEU

45、ROPETHATSTHECENTEROFATTENTIONNOWWHATWENEEDTODOISTOTRYTORESOLVETHESITUATIONTHEREANDTHENTAKEITFROMTHERECHINAMERCHANTSBANKCMBOPENEDITSNEWYORKBRANCHTHEFIRSTCHINESEBANKBRANCHOPENINGINTHEUSAFTERADECADEONOCTOBER8,2008,JUSTASLEHMANBROTHERSWASINTHROESOFCOLLAPSINGANDTHEGLOBALECONOMICCRISISBEGANESCALATINGHAVIN

46、GWITNESSEDTHECRISISFROMTHEEYEOFTHESTORMONWALLSTREET,ANDTHENTHEHUGECREDITRELEASEINCHINALASTYEAR,MAWEIHUA,THEBANKSPRESIDENT,HISTHOUGHTSONWHATLIESAHEADFORHISCOUNTRYSFASTCHANGINGFINANCIALSERVICESSECTORMA,WHOHASFORGEDAREPUTATIONASONEOFCHINASMOSTCHARISMATICBUSINESSLEADERSSINCEJOININGTHETHENFLEDGLINGSHENZH

47、ENBASEDBANKIN1999,ALSODISCUSSESHISLEADERSHIPPHILOSOPHYANDWHATITTAKESTOMANAGEACOMPANYSUCHASCMBNOWONEOFTHEBIGGESTPLAYERSINITSSECTORMAWEIHUALASTYEARSNEWLOANSWEREMADEUNDERSPECIALCIRCUMSTANCESTHECOUNTRYNEEDEDTOESCAPETHESHADOWOFTHEFINANCIALCRISIS,SOBOTHFISCALANDMONETARYMEASURESWERENECESSARYTOMOVECHINAOUTO

48、FTHECRISISANDRESTORECONFIDENCEGIVENTHESPEEDATWHICHTHELOANSAREMADE,CHINASABILITYTOCOLLECTINFORMATIONONTHEM,ESTIMATEPROJECTRISKANDIMPLEMENTGUARANTEESISNOTONTHESAMELEVELASTHATOFAMERICACONCERNSABOUTTHESELOANSAREWELLFOUNDED,ANDPEOPLEAREBECOMINGMOREAWAREOFTHERISKSINVOLVEDASFORTHERMB10TRILLIONOFLOANS,MYVIE

49、WISTHATTHELOANSRELATEDTOGOVERNMENTPLATFORMS,REALESTATEANDLOANSTOREDUNDANTINFRASTRUCTUREANDOVERCAPACITYHAVEMORERISKHOWEVER,ALARGESCALERISEINNEWNONPERFORMINGLOANSTHISYEARISUNLIKELYFIRSTOFALL,MOSTOFTHELOANSARENTDUEFORANOTHERTWOTOTHREEYEARSSECOND,CHINASECONOMYHASINCREDIBLEPOTENTIALOVERTHENEXTTWOTOTHREEDECADES,MAINTAININGGDPGROWTHOF8SHOULDNOTBEAPROBLEMCHINASINDUSTRIALIZATIONANDURBANIZATIONCONTINUETOMAKEITONEOFTHETOPDESTINATIONSFORFOREIGNINVESTMENTONTHEOTHERHAND,THEGROWINGDOMESTICECONOMYANDTHECHANGEOFPEOPLESATTITUDESTOWARDCREDITANDCONSUMPTIONSHOULDALS