美国农作物保险计划的政治经济学【外文翻译】.doc

1、本科毕业论文外文翻译外文题目THEPOLITICALECONOMYOFTHEUSCROPINSURANCEPROGRAM出处THEECONOMICIMPACTOFPUBLICSUPPORTTOAGRICULTURE20107243308作者BRUCEABABCOCK原文THEPOLITICALECONOMYOFTHEUSCROPINSURANCEPROGRAMABSTRACTTAXPAYERSUPPORTFORTHECROPINSURANCEINDUSTRYHASGROWNRAPIDLYSINCE2000EVENTHOUGHTOTALCROPACRESINSUREDISSTAGNANTANDT

2、HENUMBEROFPOLICIESSOLDHASDECLINEDSTAUNCHSUPPORTFORTHEPROGRAMBYKEYMEMBERSOFCONGRESSMEANTDEFEATFORPROPOSALSINTHE2008FARMBILLTOSIGNIFICANTLYREDUCECOSTTHESEPROPOSALSINCLUDEDLARGECHANGESINTHEFORMULASUSEDTOCALCULATEINDUSTRYREIMBURSEMENTANDFORNEWPROGRAMSTHATWOULDBEINTEGRATEDWITHORREDUCETHEAMOUNTOFRISKINSUR

3、EDBYTHECROPINSURANCEPROGRAMTHEREASONFORTHISRESILIENCEISPROGRAMCOMPLEXITYANDBIASEDANALYSIS,WHICHHASALLOWEDTHEINDUSTRYTOCLAIMTHATTHEYAREUNDERCOMPENSATEDDESPITEADOUBLINGOFTAXPAYERSUPPORTONEUNFORESEENOUTCOMEOFTHESTRENGTHOFTHECROPINSURANCEINDUSTRYINPROTECTINGITSINTERESTSISTHATANEWINSURANCEPROGRAMCALLEDAV

4、ERAGECROPREVENUESELECTIONACREWASPASSEDINTHEFARMBILLLARGEUNINTENDEDCONSEQUENCESTHATCOULDBEBROUGHTABOUTBYACREINCLUDETHELIKELYDEMISEOFTHEMARKETINGLOANANDCOUNTERCYCLICALPROGRAMS,INCREASEDRISKTHATTHEUNITEDSTATESWILLVIOLATEITSAMBERBOXLIMITS,ANDINTHENOTTOODISTANTFUTURE,ACOMPLETECHANGEINTHEWAYTHATUSCROPINSU

5、RANCEISDELIVEREDTOFARMERSINTRODUCTIONTHEDIFFICULTYWITHWHICHCONGRESSPASSEDAUSFARMBILLWASHAMPEREDMOREBYANEEDTOFINDINCREASEDFUNDSTHANWITHANYBROADPHILOSOPHICALDEBATEABOUTTHEPROPERDIRECTIONFORUSFARMPOLICYATFIRSTPERUSAL,THENEWUSCOMMODITYPOLICYLARGELYFOLLOWSTHEPOLICYSETFORTHINTHE2002FARMBILLDIRECTPAYMENTS,

6、COUNTERCYCLICALPAYMENTS,ANDTHEMARKETINGLOANPROGRAMSTILLEXISTANDARELARGELYUNCHANGEDWHEATANDSOYBEANSHAVEASLIGHTLYHIGHERTARGETPRICEANDLENTILSHAVEASLIGHTLYLOWERLOANRATETOMAINTAINTHISPROGRAMSTRUCTURELARGELYINTACTWHILEBOOSTINGFUNDINGFORNUTRITIONPROGRAMSREQUIREDCONGRESSTOFINDNEWFUNDSCONGRESSHADNOAPPETITEFO

7、RREDUCINGDIRECTPAYMENTS,WHICHLEFTONLYTHECROPINSURANCEPROGRAMTHATCOULDBETAPPEDFORSAVINGSTHEDEBATEOVERHOWMUCHTOTAKEAWAYFROMTHECROPINSURANCEPROGRAMPROVIDEDMANYWITHTHEIRFIRSTDETAILEDREASONTOUNDERSTANDAPROGRAMTHATHASGROWNTREMENDOUSLYSINCE2000THESTAKESOFTHOSEWITHVESTEDINTERESTSINTHEPROGRAMARENOWINTHEBILLI

8、ONSOFDOLLARSANNUALLY,WHICHMAKESCHANGEMOREDIFFICULTTHANWHENTHESTAKESWEREINTHEMILLIONSOFDOLLARSNOTSURPRISINGLY,THOSEWITHALARGEVESTEDINTERESTINTHECROPINSURANCEPROGRAMCAMEOUTLARGELYUNSCATHEDINTHE2008FARMBILLALTHOUGHSUPPORTERSOFTHEPROGRAMLAMENTTHELARGECUTSTHATCROPINSURANCETOOK,THECUTSREALLYONLYTOOKAWAYAS

9、MALLPORTIONOFTHEGAINSTHATACCRUETOITSBENEFICIARIESONEUNFORESEENOUTCOMEOFTHESTRENGTHOFTHECROPINSURANCEINDUSTRYINPROTECTINGITSINTERESTSISTHATTHENEWINSURANCEPROGRAMTHATWASPASSEDINTHEFARMBILLWILLBEOPERATEDCOMPLETELYBYTHEFARMSERVICEAGENCYFSAINSTEADOFBYTHERISKMANAGEMENTAGENCYRMATHENEWPROGRAM,CALLEDACREAVER

10、AGECROPREVENUEELECTION,WILLNOTBEINTEGRATEDINTOTHEEXISTINGCROPINSURANCEPROGRAMBECAUSESUCHINTEGRATIONWOULDHAVEMEANTLESSRISKBEINGHANDLEDBYTHECROPINSURANCEINDUSTRYTHEREMAINDEROFTHISCHAPTERPROVIDESAPOLITICAL/ECONOMICANALYSISOFWHYTHEUNITEDSTATESFINDSITSELFWITHTWOCROPINSURANCEPROGRAMSANDANEXPLORATIONOFTHEP

11、OSSIBLYLARGE,UNINTENDEDCONSEQUENCESOFHAVINGBOTHPROGRAMSTHEEXPLANATIONFORWHYWEHAVEBOTHPROGRAMSLIES,NOTSURPRISINGLY,INCONGRESSTRYINGTOFINDANOUTCOMETHATWOULDGIVEADIVERSESETOFINTERESTGROUPSWHATTHEYWANT,WHILEPROVIDINGTHENECESSARYFUNDSFOREXPANDEDNUTRITIONPROGRAMS,WHICHWASAMAJOROBJECTIVEOFHOUSELEADERSHIPTH

12、ELARGEUNINTENDEDCONSEQUENCESTHATCOULDBEBROUGHTABOUTBYACREINCLUDETHELIKELYDEMISEOFTHEMARKETINGLOANANDCOUNTERCYCLICALPROGRAMS,INCREASEDRISKTHATTHEUNITEDSTATESWILLVIOLATEITSAMBERBOXLIMITS,ANDINTHENOTTOODISTANTFUTURE,ACOMPLETECHANGEINTHEWAYTHATUSCROPINSURANCEISDELIVEREDTOFARMERSBACKGROUNDONTHEUSCROPINSU

13、RANCEPROGRAMTHEUSCROPINSURANCEPROGRAMHASTWOBROADPUBLICPOLICYOBJECTIVESHELPFARMERSMANAGEFINANCIALRISKANDELIMINATETHENEEDFORCONGRESSTOPASSSUPPLEMENTALADHOCDISASTERASSISTANCEPROGRAMSTOMEETTHESETWINOBJECTIVES,CONGRESSREFORMEDTHEPROGRAMIN2000WITHTHEAGRICULTURALRISKPROTECTIONACTARPATHEREFORMWASJUSTIFIEDBY

14、PRESIDENTCLINTONINHISSTATEMENTUPONSIGNINGTHEAGRICULTURALRISKPROTECTIONACTARPAOF2000“IHAVEHEARDMANYFARMERSSAYTHATTHECROPINSURANCEPROGRAMWASSIMPLYNOTGOODVALUEFORTHEM,PROVIDINGTOOLITTLECOVERAGEFORTOOMUCHMONEYMYFY2001BUDGETPROPOSALANDTHISBILLDIRECTLYADDRESSTHATPROBLEMBYMAKINGHIGHERINSURANCECOVERAGEMOREA

15、FFORDABLE,WHICHSHOULDALSOMITIGATETHENEEDFORADHOCCROPLOSSDISASTERASSISTANCESUCHASWEHAVESEENFORTHELASTTHREEYEARS”ANDIN2006TESTIMONYBEFORETHEHOUSESUBCOMMITTEEONAGRICULTURE,RURALDEVELOPMENT,FOODANDDRUGADMINISTRATION,ANDRELATEDAGENCIES,FORMERUSDAUNDERSECRETARYJBPENNSAID,“ONEOFTHEOVERARCHINGGOALSOFTHECROP

16、INSURANCEPROGRAMHASBEENTHEREDUCTIONORELIMINATIONOFADHOCDISASTERASSISTANCE”BYALLACCOUNTS,CONGRESSHASSEEMINGLYSUCCEEDEDINITSOBJECTIVETOHELPFARMERSMANAGERISKCOVERAGEISPROVIDEDTOMORETHAN350COMMODITIESINALL50STATESANDPUERTORICOANDMORETHAN80OFELIGIBLEACRESARENOWINSUREDUNDERTHEPROGRAMHOWEVER,THISSUCCESSHAS

17、COMEATAHIGHCOSTCONGRESSIONALBUDGETOFFICECBOPROJECTIONSMADEIN2007INDICATETHATTHECROPINSURANCEPROGRAMWILLCOSTTAXPAYERSANAVERAGEOFMORETHAN5BILLIONPERYEARFORTHENEXT5YEARS,WHICHISABOUTDOUBLEWHATTHEPROGRAMWOULDHAVECOSTWITHOUTTHEREFORMACTUALEXPENDITURESWILLBEMUCHHIGHERIFCROPPRICESSTAYHIGHONEMIGHTBEABLETOJU

18、STIFYTHISADDITIONALCOSTIFTHESECONDOBJECTIVEOFTHEPROGRAMHADBEENMETALSOBUTPASSAGEOFACREANDAPERMANENTDISASTERPROGRAMINTHENEWFARMBILLINDICATESTHATCROPINSURANCEPROVIDESINADEQUATECOVERAGEFORFARMERS,ASDOESINCLUSIONOF35BILLIONINYETANOTHERDISASTERASSISTANCEPROGRAMINTHE2008IRAQFUNDINGBILLMEMBERSOFTHEHOUSEANDS

19、ENATEAGRICULTURALCOMMITTEESJUSTIFYTHENEEDFORDISASTERASSISTANCEDESPITELARGEAMOUNTSOFCROPINSURANCEAIDBECAUSEEVENANEXPANDEDCROPINSURANCEPROGRAMCANNOTPROVIDEADEQUATEASSISTANCETOFARMERSINFINANCIALSTRESSTHELARGELOSSESINIOWAFROMEXCESSRAINFALLIN2008WILLONCEAGAINTESTCONGRESSABILITYTOCOUNTONTHECROPINSURANCEPR

20、OGRAMTODELIVERADEQUATEAIDTOFARMERSASIMPLEMODELOFCOMPETITIONINCROPINSURANCETHEREAREFIVEMAINPLAYERSINTHECROPINSURANCEINDUSTRYCONGRESS,GOVERNMENTREGULATORS,FARMERS,CROPINSURANCEAGENTS,ANDCROPINSURANCECOMPANIESTAXPAYERSUBSIDIESCREATEDANDPROVIDECONTINUALSUPPORTTHEINDUSTRYCONGRESSREACTSTOPOLITICALPRESSURE

21、BYPASSINGLAWSTHATREGULATEANDSUBSIDIZETHEINDUSTRYREGULATORSIMPLEMENTTHOSELAWSFARMERSBUYCROPINSURANCEFROMACROPINSURANCEAGENTCROPINSURANCEAGENTSDECIDEWHICHCROPINSURANCECOMPANYWILLRECEIVEEACHFARMERSBUSINESSAGENTSMAKEMONEYBYEARNINGCOMMISSIONONEACHPOLICYTHATTHEYSELLTHEVARIABLECOSTOFSELLINGPOLICIESISMUCHLE

22、SSTHANTHECOMMISSIONONMOSTPOLICIES,SOTHEMOREPOLICIESTHEYSELL,THEMOREMONEYAGENTSMAKETHUSAGENTSHAVEANINCENTIVETOCOMPETEWITHOTHERAGENTSFORAFARMERSBUSINESSCROPINSURANCECOMPANIESMAKEMONEYFROMUNDERWRITINGGAINSANDFROMALOWERINGTHEFARMERCOSTOFFILLINGOUTREQUIREDFORMSANDKEEPINGFARMERSINFORMEDOFANYINFORMATIONTHA

23、TMAYPROVEUSEFULTOFARMERSALLOFTHESESERVICESAREOFSECONDORDERIMPORTANCETOFARMERSBECAUSEEITHERTHEYAREONETIMEBENEFITSORBECAUSETHEYDONOTDIRECTLYINCREASEFARMERSPROFITSBYDEFAULT,AFARMERSBUSINESSREMAINSWITHANAGENTYEARAFTERYEARSOUNLESSANAGENTCONVINCESAFARMERTOSWITCHAGENTS,NOSWITCHWILLTAKEPLACETOAFARMER,THEBEN

24、EFITOFSWITCHINGMUSTBEGREATERTHANTHECOSTOFSWITCHING,WHICHINVOLVESSOMEPAPERWORK,POSSIBLYALIENATINGALOCALNEIGHBORORBUSINESSPERSON,ANDSEARCHCOSTSFORANAGENTTHATCANPROVIDESUPERIORSERVICEBECAUSETHEREAREPOSITIVESWITCHINGCOSTSANDONLYINDIRECTBENEFITS,THEINCENTIVEFORMOSTFARMERSTOSWITCHISNOTVERYHIGH,ALTHOUGHEXA

25、CTMEASUREMENTOFTHEINCENTIVEWOULDBEDIFFICULTCONSEQUENTLY,THEPRODUCTIVITYOFAGENTINVESTMENTSDESIGNEDTOINDUCEFARMERSTOSWITCHWILLNOTBEHIGHINEQUILIBRIUM,EACHAGENTINVESTSANOPTIMALAMOUNTTOKEEPHISORHERBUSINESSANDTOPERHAPSATTRACTNEWBUSINESS,ANDEACHFARMERHASFOUNDTHEAGENTWHERETHEBENEFITSOFFURTHERSWITCHINGAREOUT

26、WEIGHEDBYTHECOSTSENTRYCOSTS,ALTHOUGHNOMINALLYSEEMINGLYLOW,AREACTUALLYQUITEHIGHBECAUSENEWENTRANTSWILLFINDITDIFFICULTTOBUILDUPTHEIRBOOKOFBUSINESSBYINDUCINGANADEQUATENUMBEROFFARMERSTOSWITCHTHUSEACHAGENTHASESSENTIALLYACAPTIVEBOOKOFBUSINESSAVERAGECROPREVENUEELECTIONSACREISANOPTIONALPROGRAMTHATIFCHOSENBYA

27、FARMERWOULDREDUCEAFARMERSDIRECTPAYMENTBY20,ELIMINATECOUNTERCYCLICALPAYMENTS,ANDDRAMATICALLYREDUCETHEFARMERSLOANRATEINEXCHANGE,AFARMERWOULDRECEIVEASTATEREVENUEGUARANTEEEQUALTO90OFTHEPRODUCTOFOLYMPICAVERAGEOFTHEPREVIOUS5YEARSOFSTATEYIELDSANDTHEAVERAGEOFTHEPREVIOUS2YEARSSEASONAVERAGEPRICESIFTHEPRODUCTO

28、FACTUALSTATEYIELDANDSEASONAVERAGEPRICEISLESSTHANTHISGUARANTEE,THENAFARMERWILLRECEIVETHEDIFFERENCEUPTO25OFTHEGUARANTEEON85OFPLANTEDACRESFORALLPROGRAMCROPSFARMERSCANCHOOSEACREBEGINNINGWITHTHE2009CROPYEARONCECHOSEN,THECHOICECANNOTBEREVOKEDFORTHELIFEOFTHEFARMBILLBECAUSETHISNEWPROGRAMLOOKSBACKINTIMEFORTH

29、EPRICETHATITUSESTOSETTHEGUARANTEE,THEACTUALPATHOFPRICESWILLDETERMINEHOWMANYFARMERSWILLFINDITPROFITABLETOCHOOSEACREFORTHE2009CROPYEAR,THEPRICEUSEDTOSETTHEGUARANTEEWERETHE2007/2008AND2008/2009MARKETINGYEARPRICESTHEKEYTOFARMERPARTICIPATIONWILLBETHE2009EXPECTEDSEASONAVERAGEPRICEIFMARKETPRICESSTAYSUBSTAN

30、TIALLYABOVETHEACREPRICE,THENFARMERSWILLNOTBERECEIVINGANYMARKETINGLOANGAINSORCOUNTERCYCLICALPAYMENTSBECAUSETHELOANRATESANDTARGETPRICESARESOLOWRELATIVETOEXPECTEDMARKETPRICEBUTACREWILLALSOBEPROVIDINGANOUTOFTHEMONEYGUARANTEESOFARMERSMAYFEELTHATTHE20CUTINDIRECTPAYMENTSISTOOHIGHAPRICETOPAYFORPOTENTIALACRE

31、PAYMENTSINTHISCASE,NOTETHATTHE2010ACREPRICEWILLBEEVENHIGHERTHANTHE2009PRICESOFARMERSWOULDKNOWTHATTHEIR2010ACREGUARANTEEWOULDBEEVENHIGHERTHANTHE2009GUARANTEESOTHATTHEREISLITTLEDOWNSIDEOFSIGNINGUPIN2009IFMANYFARMERSPARTICIPATEINACRE,THENMARKETINGLOANSANDCOUNTERCYCLICALPAYMENTSWILLNOTPLAYANIMPORTANTROL

32、EINTHENEXTFARMBUTBEFOREWECANCONCLUDETHATALLFARMERSWILLCHOOSEACRE,WEMUSTCONSIDERTHEIMPACTONTHEACREGUARANTEEIFMARKETPRICESFALLIN2009ANDINSUBSEQUENTYEARSITCOULDBETHATTHEACREGUARANTEEFALLSSOLOWIN2011AND2012THATITMAKESTHECURRENTPROGRAMMOREADVANTAGEOUSHOWEVER,APROVISIONINTHEACREPROGRAMDOESNOTALLOWTHEGUARA

33、NTEETOINCREASEORDECREASEMORETHAN10INANYYEARTHISMEANSTHATTHE2013GUARANTEECANONLYDROPTO6561OFTHE2009GUARANTEEBECAUSETHE5YEAROLYMPICAVERAGEOFSTATEYIELDSWILLNOTTYPICALLYINCREASEORDECREASEADRAMATICAMOUNT,ITISREASONABLETOASKWHETHERANACREPRICEOF6561OFTHE2009ACREPRICEMAKESMARKETINGLOANGAINSANDCOUNTERCYCLICA

34、LPAYMENTSMOREATTRACTIVETHANACREIFTHE2007AND2008WASDEESTIMATESOFMARKETINGYEARPRICESARETRUESOTHATTHE2009ACREPRICESCOMEINAT508AND1088FORCORNANDSOYBEANS,THEN6561OFTHESEPRICESARE333AND714,RESPECTIVELYTHISISTHEMINIMUMACREPRICETHATCOULDBEREACHEDINTHE2008FARMBILLPERIODATTHESEACREPRICES,THENETBENEFITTOACREIS

35、STILLPOSITIVETHUS,ITSEEMSTHATACREDOMINATESTHECURRENTPROGRAMFORCORNANDSOYBEANFARMERSTHISSUGGESTSTHATIF2008MARKETPRICESAREANYWHERECLOSETOWHEREWASDEPROJECTSTHEMTOBE,THENALLFARMERSWILLHAVEANINCENTIVETOCHOOSEACREFUTUREIMPLICATIONSTHECROPINSURANCELOBBYWASSUCCESSFULATDEFEATINGAREAREVENUEINSURANCEPROGRAMSTH

36、ATWOULDHAVEREPLACEDORBEENINTEGRATEDWITHCROPINSURANCEINSTEADWEHAVETHEACREPROGRAMTHATBECAUSEITISBACKWARDLOOKINGHASTHEPOTENTIALFORMAKINGDRAMATICALLYHIGHERPAYMENTSTHANIFAFORWARDLOOKINGPROGRAMLIKEGROUPRISKINCOMEPROTECTIONHADBEENADOPTEDINSTEADALTHOUGHITSSUPPORTERSCLAIMTHATTHEPROGRAMISMOREMARKETORIENTEDTHA

37、NPROGRAMSWITHAFIXEDGUARANTEEDPRICE,THISDOESNOTMEANTHATITISLESSDISTORTIONARYTHANCURRENTPROGRAMSBECAUSEOFTHEPOTENTIALFORINTHEMONEYREVENUEGUARANTEESATPLANTINGTIMETHESEINTHEMONEYGUARANTEESCOULDIMPLYDIFFICULTYINMEETINGWTOCOMMITMENTSIFPRICELEVELSCONTINUEHIGHERFORAYEARORTWOANDTHENFALLDRAMATICALLY,PERHAPSBE

38、CAUSEOFARETHINKINGOFUSETHANOLPOLICYITISLIKELYTHATWHENTHEVASTMAJORITYOFFARMERSCHOOSEACREINTHEYEARSAHEAD,THEYWILLFINDTHATSTATELEVELREVENUEGUARANTEESARENOTTHESAMEASCOUNTYORFARMLEVELGUARANTEESTHATIS,VERYLOWSTATEYIELDSTHATTRIGGERPAYMENTSWILLLIKELYBEASSOCIATEDWITHFARMLEVELLOSSES,BUTTHEREWILLBEYEARSINWHICH

39、FARMLEVELLOSSESOCCUR,BUTSTATELOSSESDONOTTHISWILLINCREASEPRESSUREINTHENEXTFARMBILLFORFARMERSTOPUSHFORAMOREDISAGGREGATEGUARANTEE,PERHAPSATTHECOUNTYLEVELINADDITION,THEBACKWARDLOOKINGPRICESETTINGMECHANISMWILLBEDIFFICULTTODEFENDUSINGFUTURESPRICESISAMUCHMORETRANSPARENTANDMARKETORIENTEDMEANSOFSETTINGPROGRA

40、MGUARANTEESFINALLY,ACREWILLLIKELYLEADTOAWHOLESALEREEVALUATIONOFTHECROPINSURANCEPROGRAMASTHEPRIMARYMEANSOFDELIVERINGRISKMANAGEMENTSUPPORTTOFARMERSFARMERSWILLFINDTHATRISKMANAGEMENTCANBEDELIVEREDFROMTHEFARMPROGRAMATMUCHLOWERCOSTBYSIMPLYTAKINGTHESYSTEMICRISKOUTOFTHECROPINSURANCEPROGRAMANDCOVERINGTHISRIS

41、KINTHEFARMBILLTHISHASTHEPOTENTIALFORBEINGAMUCHMORECOSTEFFECTIVEAPPROACHTHANTHECURRENTAPPROACHOFINSURINGBOTHPOOLABLEANDSYSTEMICRISKINTHEFARMBILL译文美国农作物保险计划的政治经济学摘要文章分析了美国农业保险的背景，然后从纳税人支持农作物保险服务，行政和操作补贴，净承销的收益，保费补贴四个方面对美国农业保险的现状作了阐述，然后建立了一个模型，最后对农业保险在美国发展的前景进行了描述，认为农业保险讲在美国取得全国性的成功。关键词原文没有关键词引言对于美国的农业

42、政策，国会通过美国农业法案十分困难，是因为受到了找寻增长型基金的阻碍多于找寻恰当方向的哲学辩论。期初，美国新商品政策在很大程度上遵循了在2002年提出的农业法案。直接支付，循环计数支付和营销贷款计划依然存在并没有很大的变化。小麦和大豆的目标价格稍高，豆类等有稍低的贷款利率。保持这一程序结构很大程度上在于增加资金，需要国会找到了新的基金。国会不希望降低直接支付，这使得他只有将作物保险计划，可以指定为储蓄。自2000年起，国会把需要给农作物保险计划提供多少钱作为第一个详细的理由去理解一项计划的情况越来越严重。现在，他们赌注的既得利益是数十亿美元，这使得当风险是达数百万美元时，改变非常困难。毫不奇怪

43、,2008年并没有农业法案，因此在植物保险计划上没有很大程度大的既得利益者。虽然计划的支持者为大幅度削减悲叹,农作物保险服务的削减真的只减少了一小部分的增加,却增加了它的受益者。一个意想不到的结果是，对农作物保险的保护的利益是一个新的保险计划，通过在农田里干活，金钱会完全被农场经营服务机构管理,而不是一个风险管理机构管理。这个新的项目是平均作物收入选择（ACRE），是不会被整合到现有的农作物保险计划中的。因为这样的整合意味着要处理风险更小的作物保险业。本章的余下部分提供了一种政治/经济分析，分析美国发现自己有两个农作物保险计划的原因，和一个可能性大，意想不到的后果的探索。对为什么我们有两个意识

44、活动谎言的解释，理所当然的,国会在试图找到一个结果,这将会给不同的利益集团带来他们所要的，而提供足够的资金来扩展营养计划,这是一个主要的客观的领导。平均作物收入选择（ACRE）可以带来大的意想不到的后果,包括可能消失的营销贷款、循环计数项目、增加的风险，美国将违反黄箱政策的限制，在不久的将来，将会发生一个彻底的改变，那就是为农民提供农业保险。农作物保险计划的背景美国农作物保险计划有两个广泛的公共政策目标帮助农民管理金融风险和消除需要国会通过补充组织灾难援助。为了满足这2目标，在2000年国会改革了农业风险的保护法案ARPA。改革是克林顿总统在签署的2000农业风险的保护法案ARPA中声明的“我

45、听说很多农民说农作物保险计划对于他们来说不是并没有什么有利价值，因为提供了多的钱却覆盖面较小。比起2001年我的预算案，这项法案能创造出更多的保险，覆盖面也更加广。就像最近3年我们所看到的，这也许会减少特设农作物损失的灾难援助。”而在2006年听证会前，众议院农业附属委员会、农村发展局、食品药品监督管理局和有关机构，前美国副国务卿JBPENN说“农作物保险计划最主要的目标之一已经降低或消除组织救灾。”人人都说，国会看起来已经成功地实现了它的目标帮助农民管理风险。报道在50个州和波多黎各提供超过350种商品，超过80的合格农田现在承保了该计划，然而，这种成功是需要极高的成本的。国会预算办公室CB

46、O在2007年预测表明今后的5年农作物保险计划要花费纳税人超过平均每年50亿美元，这是没有改革时的两倍的费用。如果农作物价格居高不下，实际支出将会高的多。可能能计算出这个项目的第二个目标的额外的成本了。新的农业法案显示，通过ACPE和一个永久的灾难项目，提供农作物保险覆盖不能够满足所有农民，也包括在另一个灾难救助计划就是在2008年的伊拉克经费法案的35亿美元。众议院和参议院的农业委员会的成员证明救灾需要大量的农作物保险援助，因为即使扩大农作物保险计划也无法提供足够的帮助来缓解农民的经济压力。2008年在爱荷华州因降雨过度而造成大的损失，国会再一次显示自己的能力要指望提供足够的农作物保险计划来

47、帮助农民。农作物保险服务竞争的一个简单模型农业保险行业有5个主体国会、政府管理层、农民、农作物保险代理人和农作物保险公司。纳税人补贴为这一行业创造和提供不断的支持。通过法律规范和行业规范，国会对政治压力给出回应。监管者应用这些法律。农民向农作物保险代理人购买农作物保险。农作物保险代理人选择哪家农作物保险公司来受理每个农民的保险。代理人从他们出售的各项保险中来赚取佣金。销售政策变动成本远小于别的大多数政策的变动。代理人销售越多的保险，就会赚取越多的金钱。因此代理人为了争取到农民的业务，开始了激烈的竞争。农作物保险公司从承销的所得和AO赔付来赚钱。变动的成本远远低于AO，预期几乎所有的国家都能得到

48、承保。因此，亲身获得越多的业务，也就会获得越多的钱。它创造了一个刺激公司竞争的环境。代理人、保险公司和农民都有个人利益，要说服国会通过法律来支持他们。因为公司或代理人收入的唯一来源是纳税人补贴，他们用的是纳税人的资金。这种竞争模式存在两种方式代理人争夺农民业务和企业竞争代理人业务。代理人争夺农民业务不能包括价格竞争因为国会通过的法律接受了代理人的请求，因此，代理人必须通过服务来竞争。可以提供不同类型的服务，包括告诉农民们关于农业保险的类型，减少农民需要填写的形式和保持和农民的练习，为他们提供一切有用的信息。这些服务对于农民来说都是十分重要的，不论因为农作物保险是一次性的利益，还是因为它们并不能

49、直接增加农民的收入。默认情况下，农民的生意需要代理人是年复一年的。所以，除非代理人要求农民更换代理人，农民是不会更换代理人的。对于农民来说，利益的变化比成本的变化更为重要，包括一些文件,当地的邻居或者生意人，为找寻一个可以提供优越的服务的代理热的费用。因为它们有积极的转换成本,只有间接好处。对于大多数农民来说积极性不是很高，尽管提高他们的积极性是很困难的。因此,代理的投资设计使农民更换代理人的可能性不高。为了平衡，每一代理投资最佳数量来保持他或她的生意和业绩，每个农民找代理人的好处是节省了成本。进入费用，虽然名义上看起来很低，其实非常高是因为新进入者通过诱导农民更换代理人，会发现很难建立他们自己的业务。这样每个经纪人基本上忠实他自己的业务的。平均作物收入选择平均作物收入（ACRE）选择是一个可选的程序，如果农民选择减少20的直接付款，消除循环计数付款，将会大大降低农民的贷款利率。作为交换，农民将获得国家收入的保证，相当于90奥运前5年国家的平均产量和赛季前2年的平均价格。如果产品的实际产量和季度的平均售价不到此保证，农民将获得所有农田所种植的农作物与实际差异的85。农民们可以从2009年的农作年开始选择ACRE。一旦选择了，将是不得撤销的农业法案。因为这个新计划看起来及时采用了价格的保证，究竟有多少农民将会发现它是有利可图而选择ACRE将决定价格。2009年的作物年