披露及股息收入持续增长之时信号下降【外文翻译】.doc

1、原文DISCLOSUREANDDIVIDENDSIGNALINGWHENSUSTAINEDEARNINGSGROWTHDECLINESKHALEDHUSSAINEYJINANAALEISAPURPOSETHEPURPOSEOFTHISPAPERISTOEXAMINEWHETHERVOLUNTARYDISCLOSUREANDDIVIDENDSSIGNALFUTUREEARNINGSFORDECLINEEARNINGSGROWTHFIRMSITSEEKSTOINFORMREGULATORSANDMANAGERSABOUTTHEPOTENTIALBENEFITSOFINCREASEDDISCLOSU

2、REANDINCREASEDDIVIDENDSTOINVESTORSFORFIRMSTHATSUFFERANEARNINGSDECLINEAFTERASUSTAINEDPERIODOFANNUALEARNINGSGROWTHDESIGN/METHODOLOGY/APPROACHTHEEVENTSTUDYMETHODOLOGYISUSEDTOEXAMINETHEBEHAVIOROF33NONFINANCIALUKFIRMSAFTERADECLINEOFTHEIRSUSTAINEDEARNINGSGROWTHITALSOUSESTHECOMPUTERIZEDCONTENTANALYSISTOCOU

3、NTTHENUMBEROFFORWARDLOOKINGSENTENCESINTHEANNUALREPORTNARRATIVESITCALCULATESCHANGESINDISCLOSUREANDDIVIDENDSINTHEYEAROFEARNINGSGROWTHDECLINESANDEXAMINESTHEIRASSOCIATIONWITHTHEABNORMALFUTUREEARNINGSFINDINGSCONSISTENTWITHPRIORRESEARCH,ITISFOUNDTHATINCREASINGDIVIDENDSDOESNOTCONVEYVALUERELEVANTINFORMATION

4、ABOUTFUTUREEARNINGSFORDECLINEEARNINGSGROWTHFIRMSHOWEVER,BASEDONDISCLOSURESIGNALINGTHEORY,ITISFOUNDTHATINCREASINGLEVELSOFFORWARDLOOKINGINFORMATIONINANNUALREPORTNARRATIVESISANIMPORTANTMECHANISMFORSIGNALINGFUTUREEARNINGSFORTHESEFIRMSPRACTICALIMPLICATIONSFORANEFFECTIVECOMMUNICATIONWITHTHESTOCKMARKETINTH

5、EYEARSOFEARNINGSDECLINEAFTERSUSTAINEDPERIODOFGROWTH,MANAGERSSHOULDGIVEHIGHPRIORITYTODEVELOPINGANAPPROPRIATEANDCOMPLETESETOFFORWARDLOOKINGINFORMATIONINTHEIRANNUALREPORTSTHISWILLENABLEINVESTORSTOBETTERANTICIPATEFIRMSFUTUREPROSPECTSTHERESULTSSUGGESTTHATIFFORWARDLOOKINGSTATEMENTSINANNUALREPORTNARRATIVES

6、CONTAINVALUERELEVANTINFORMATIONFORINVESTORS,THENREGULATORSSHOULDCONSIDERACOMPULSORYNARRATIVESECTIONIEOPERATINGANDFINANCIALREVIEWINTHEANNUALREPORTORIGINALITY/VALUETHISPAPERISTHEFIRSTTOSTUDYTHEVALUERELEVANCEOFVOLUNTARYDISCLOSUREFORDECLINEEARNINGSGROWTHFIRMSDIVIDENDSIGNALINGTHEORYISONEOFTHECHALLENGINGT

7、OPICSINBEHAVIORALACCOUNTINGANDFINANCELITERATUREITSUGGESTSTHATDIVIDENDCHANGESCONTAINVALUERELEVANTINFORMATIONABOUTTHEPROFITABILITYANDITISUSEDASASIGNALFORFIRMSFUTUREPERFORMANCETHEREAREANUMBEROFSTUDIESTHATEXAMINETHEASSOCIATIONBETWEENDIVIDENDANNOUNCEMENTSANDFIRMSFUTUREEARNINGSPROSPECTSMODIGLIANIANDMILLER

8、1958WASTHEFIRSTTOEXAMINETHEVALUERELEVANCEOFDIVIDENDPOLICYHOWEVER,THEYARGUEDTHATDIVIDENDPOLICYISIRRELEVANTTOFIRMSVALUEUNDERCERTAINHYPOTHESESNOWADAYSINVESTORSARECONCERNEDABOUTTHEPROFITABILITYANDFUTUREPERFORMANCEOFTHESEFIRMSDEANGELOETAL1996EXAMINEDDIVIDENDANNOUNCEMENTSOFDECLINEEARNINGSFIRMSINTHEUSAAFTE

9、RTHEGROWTHFORATLEASTNINEYEARSTHEYFOUNDTHATTHEREISNOASSOCIATIONBETWEENDIVIDENDCHANGESANDFUTUREEARNINGSSIMILARLY,APGWILYM2004EXAMINEDUKFIRMSWHIMECHHADATLEASTFIVEYEARSOFANNUALGROWTHFOLLOWEDBYARECESSIONPERIODANDFOUNDTHATDIVIDENDISNOTANIMPORTANTSIGNALFORTHESEFIRMSDIVIDENDISAWELLKNOWNTECHNIQUEUSEDTOSIGNAL

10、FIRMSFUTUREPROSPECTSANOTHERIMPORTANTTECHNIQUETOSIGNALTHEFUTUREPERFORMANCEISINCREASINGTHELEVELSOFVOLUNTARYDISCLOSUREHUSSAINEYANDWALKER,2009THEREFORE,ITISWORTHWHILETOCONSIDERTHEEFFECTOFDISCLOSURESIGNALINGFORDECLINEEARNINGSGROWTHFIRMSALARGENUMBEROFSTUDIESHAVEEXAMINEDTHEEXTENTTOWHICHFIRMSVOLUNTARYDISCLO

11、SUREISUSEDTOSIGNALFUTUREPERFORMANCECLARKSONETAL,1994HUSSAINEYETAL,2003SCHLEICHERETAL,2007HUSSAINEYANDWALKER,2009ACONSISTENTFINDINGOFTHESEPAPERSISTHATVOLUNTARYDISCLOSURESIGNALSFIRMSFUTUREPROSPECTSBASEDONTHEDISCUSSIONABOVE,OURPAPERAIMSTOCONTRIBUTETOTHEEXISTINGVOLUNTARYDISCLOSURELITERATUREBYEXAMININGDI

12、SCLOSURESIGNALINGFORASPECIALGROUPOFFIRMSTHATSUFFERFROMADECLINEINTHEIREARNINGSAFTERATLEASTFOURYEARSOFANNUALEARNINGSGROWTHWEAREINTERESTEDTOKNOWTHEEXTENTTOWHICHSIGNALINGTHEORYISVALIDFORTHISSPECIALGROUPOFFIRMSINFACT,PRIORSTUDIESFOCUSONLYONDIVIDENDSIGNALINGHOWEVER,WEEXAMINEANDCOMPARETHEEFFECTOFDIVIDENDAN

13、DVOLUNTARYDISCLOSURESIGNALINGONPREDICTINGFUTUREPROSPECTSFORDECLINEEARNINGSGROWTHFIRMSTHEPAPERISORGANIZEDASFOLLOWSTHENEXTSECTIONREVIEWSPRIORLITERATUREFOLLOWEDBYASECTIONDESCRIBINGDATAANDMETHODOLOGYTHEANALYSESANDEMPIRICALRESULTSARETHENPRESENTEDWHILETHEFINALSECTIONOFTHEPAPERCONCLUDESWITHTHEMAINFINDINGSA

14、NDPROVIDESLINESFORFUTURERESEARCHLITERATUREREVIEWONLYALIMITEDNUMBEROFSTUDIESHAVEEXAMINEDSIGNALINGTHEORYFORDECLINEEARNINGSGROWTHFIRMSTOTHEBESTOFOURKNOWLEDGE,ONLYDEANGELOETAL1996ANDAPGWILYM2004HAVEEXAMINEDTHISISSUEINPARTICULAR,DEANGELOETAL1996INVESTIGATEDTHEDIVIDENDSIGNALINGTHEORYFORASAMPLEOF145FIRMSLI

15、STEDONTHENEWYORKSTOCKEXCHANGETHEYFOCUSEDONDECLINEEARNINGSGROWTHFIRMSBETWEEN1980AND1987THATHADATLEASTNINEYEARSOFEARNINGSGROWTHBEFORETHEINITIALRECESSIONTHEYFOUNDTHATTHEREISNOASSOCIATIONBETWEENINCREASINGDIVIDENDLEVELSANDFUTUREPROFITABILITYTHEIRRESULTSSUGGESTTHATDIVIDENDSIGNALINGTHEORYISNOTAPPLICABLETOT

16、HISSPECIALGROUPOFFIRMSTHERESULTSALSOINDICATETHATINVESTORSDONOTUSEDIVIDENDSATTHEYEAROFEARNINGSGROWTHDECLINEFORPREDICTINGFIRMSFUTUREEARNINGSSIMILARLY,APGWILYM2004EXAMINEDTHEDIVIDENDSIGNALINGRELATIONSHIPWITHFUTUREEARNINGSFORASAMPLEOF85NONFINANCIALANDNONUTILITYUKFIRMSTHATHADEARNINGSDECLINEBETWEEN1995AND

17、2000AFTERGROWTHFORATLEASTFIVEYEARSCONSISTENTWITHDEANGELOETAL1996APGWILYM2004FOUNDNOEVIDENCEONDIVIDENDSIGNALINGFORDECLINEEARNINGSGROWTHFIRMSTHESERESULTSLEDUSTOASKWHETHERDECLINEEARNINGSGROWTHFIRMSAREUSINGDIFFERENTCOMMUNICATIONTOOLSTOCONVEYVALUERELEVANTINFORMATIONTOINVESTORSINARECENTPAPER,HUSSAINEYANDW

18、ALKER2009FOUNDTHATVOLUNTARYDISCLOSURENARRATIVEANDDIVIDENDPOLICYARESUBSTITUTESFORMSONCOMMUNICATIONTOOLSFORCONVEYINGVALUERELEVANTINFORMATIONABOUTFUTUREEARNINGSASARESULT,WETESTTOSEEIFVOLUNTARYDISCLOSUREISANIMPORTANTMECHANISMFORSIGNALINGVALUERELEVANTINFORMATIONFORDECLINEEARNINGSGROWTHFIRMSALARGENUMBEROF

19、PAPERSHAVEINVESTIGATEDHOWCORPORATEDISCLOSURESSIGNALFIRMSFUTUREEARNINGSGELBANDZAROWIN2002ANDLUNDHOLMANDMYERS2002FOUNDTHATTHEQUALITYOFCORPORATEDISCLOSURE,ASMEASUREDBYAIMRFAFANALYSTSDISCLOSURERANKINGS,ISPOSITIVELYASSOCIATEDWITHTHESTOCKMARKETSABILITYTOANTICIPATEFUTUREEARNINGSCHANGESHUSSAINEYETAL2003ANDS

20、CHLEICHERANDWALKER1999FOUNDTHATTHERAISEINTHELEVELSOFVOLUNTARYDISCLOSURENARRATIVEINTHEANNUALREPORTINCREASESTHESTOCKMARKETSABILITYTOBETTERANTICIPATEFUTUREEARNINGSSCHLEICHERETAL2007FOUNDTHATTHEASSOCIATIONBETWEENLEVELSOFANNUALREPORTDISCLOSURESANDSHAREPRICEANTICIPATIONOFEARNINGSISSIGNIFICANTFORLOSSMAKING

21、FIRMS,BUTNOTPROFITABLEFIRMSNONEOFTHEABOVEPAPERSMAKEANYEFFORTSTOEXAMINETHEIMPORTANCEOFVOLUNTARYDISCLOSURENARRATIVEFORDECLINEEARNINGSGROWTHFIRMSTHEREFORE,THEAIMOFOURPAPERISTOEXAMINESIGNALINGTHEORYFORTHESEFIRMSOURSTUDYISBASEDONTHESTUDIESOFDEANGELOETAL1996ANDAPGWILYMOURDISCLOSUREMEASUREISTHENUMBEROFFORW

22、ARDLOOKINGSENTENCESINANNUALREPORTNARRATIVESWEFOCUSONANNUALREPORTNARRATIVESFORTWOREASONSFIRST,PRIORRESEARCHSUGGESTSTHATANNUALREPORTNARRATIVESARETHEMOSTIMPORTANTSOURCEOFINFORMATIONFORPROFESSIONALUSERSSUCHASFINANCIALANALYSTSSCHIPPER,1991ROGERSANDGRANT,1997ANDDIFFERENTCLASSESOFINFORMATIONINTHESENARRATIV

23、ESAREHIGHLYRATEDBYPROFESSIONALANDNONPROFESSIONALUSERSBEATTIEANDPRATT,2002SECOND,ANNUALREPORTNARRATIVESAREMORELIKELYTOCONTAINFORWARDLOOKINGINFORMATIONTHANOTHERSECTIONSOFTHEANNUALREPORTSHUSSAINEYETAL,2003WEFOCUSOURANALYSISONFORWARDLOOKINGINFORMATIONDUETOTHEFACTTHATACONSIDERABLENUMBEROFUKACADEMICSTUDIE

24、SPROVIDEEVIDENCETHATTHISTYPEOFINFORMATIONHELPSSTOCKMARKETPARTICIPANTSTOBETTERANTICIPATEFIRMSFUTUREEARNINGSPROSPECTSHUSSAINEYETAL,2003SCHLEICHERETAL,2007HUSSAINEYANDWALKER,2009BASEDONTHEDISCUSSIONABOVEWEFORMALLYTESTTHEFOLLOWINGRESEARCHHYPOTHESESH1CHANGESINDIVIDENDSDONOTSIGNALINFORMATIONABOUTFUTUREEAR

25、NINGSFORDECLINEEARNINGSGROWTHFIRMSH2CHANGESINFORWARDLOOKINGINFORMATIONINANNUALREPORTNARRATIVESSIGNALINFORMATIONABOUTFUTUREEARNINGSFORDECLINEEARNINGSGROWTHFIRMSRESEARCHDESIGNUKFIRMSHAVEBEENCHOSENFROMTHEFORECASTINGANALYSISANDMODELINGENVIRONMENTFAMEDATABASEDURINGTHEPERIODOF20002007WESETTHEFOLLOWINGSAMP

26、LESELECTIONCRITERIAFIRST,UKFIRMSSHOULDBENONFINANCIALANDPUBLICLYQUOTEDSECOND,THESEFIRMSSHOULDHAVEEARNINGSGROWTHFORATLEASTFOURYEARSFROM2000TO2003THIRD,THESEFIRMSSHOULDHAVEADECLINEINEARNINGSGROWTHINEITHERYEAR2004ORYEAR2005FOURTH,TOEXAMINEDIVIDENDANDDISCLOSURESIGNALINGTHEORY,THESAMPLEPERIODISEXTENDEDTOT

27、WOYEARSAFTERTHERECESSIONYEAR2006AND2007FINALLY,ANNUALFINANCIALDATASHOULDBEAVAILABLEFORTHESEFIRMSFROMFAMEFORYEARSFROM2000TO2007THESECRITERIAGAVEUSASAMPLEOF33DECLINEEARNINGSGROWTHFIRMSEARNINGSPROFITAFTEREXCEPTIONALITEMS,INTEREST,TAXATION,EXTRAORDINARYITEMSANDMINORITYINTERESTS,DIVIDENDS,SALES,SHAREHOLD

28、ERSFUNDSANDINDUSTRYSECTORSWERECOLLECTEDFROMFAMEANNUALREPORTSAREOBTAINEDFROMTHENORTHOLTDATABASEOURSAMPLEHAS13FIRMSWITHEARNINGSDECLINEIN200440PERCENTOFTHESAMPLEAND20WITHEARNINGSDECLINEIN2005INADDITION,40PERCENTOFOURSAMPLEAREMANUFACTURINGFIRMSAND60PERCENTARENONMANUFACTURINGONESTHEYARESPREADOVERTHEINDUS

29、TRYSECTORSASBUSINESSANDSUPPORTSERVICESTENFIRMS,CONSTRUCTIONANDBUILDINGMATERIALSFOURFIRMS,GENERALRETAILERSSIXFIRMS,FOODPRODUCERSANDPROCESSORSTWOFIRMS,ELECTRONICANDELECTRICALEQUIPMENTSTWOFIRMSANDOTHERDIVERSIFIEDSECTORSFOURFIRMSMETHODOLOGYTOACHIEVETHERESEARCHOBJECTIVES,THEEVENTSTUDYMETHODOLOGYISUSEDTOI

30、NVESTIGATETHEEXTENTTOWHICHCHANGESINDIVIDENDANDVOLUNTARYDISCLOSURESIGNALFUTUREPERFORMANCEFORDECLINEEARNINGSGROWTHFIRMSTOMEASURECHANGESINVOLUNTARYDISCLOSURENARRATIVE,NUDISTSOFTWAREISUSEDTOCALCULATETHENUMBEROFFORWARDLOOKINGSENTENCESINTHEANNUALREPORTSINTHEYEAROFEARNINGSGROWTHDECLINESANDTHEYEARBEFOREWEAL

31、SOMEASURECHANGESINDIVIDENDPAYMENTSDIVIDENDSATTHEYEAROFEARNINGSDECLINET0DIVIDENDSATTHEYEART1TOEXAMINETHESIGNALINGTHEORY,ANEARNINGSGROWTHADJUSTMENTMODELISUSEDTOCALCULATETHEABNORMALFUTUREEARNINGSFORDECLINEEARNINGSGROWTHFIRMSTHATINCREASETHEIRDIVIDENDPAYMENTSORTHEIRVOLUNTARYDISCLOSURELEVELSINTHEYEAROFEAR

32、NINGSGROWTHDECLINESABNORMALFUTUREEARNINGSFOLLOWINGDEANGELOETAL1996ANDAPGWILYM2004,WEUSETHEABNORMALFUTUREEARNINGSOFTHEGROWTHADJUSTMENTMODELTOINVESTIGATEDIVIDENDANDVOLUNTARYDISCLOSURESIGNALINGIMPACTSONTHEFUTUREPERFORMANCEABNORMALFUTUREEARNINGSCALCULATEDASTOTALACTUALEARNINGAFTERTHEDECLININGPERIODMINUST

33、OTALEXPECTEDEARNINGSOVERTHESAMEPERIOD,WHEREASEXPECTEDEARNINGSWERETHOSEEQUALTOTHEEARNINGSINTHERECESSIONPERIODT0COMPOUNDEDFORWARDSATHISTORICALGROWTHRATEFORTHEEARNINGSINYEART4TOYEART1THEN,STANDARDTHERESULTSBYSHAREHOLDERSFUNDSOFTHEPERIODBEFORETHEINITIALDECLINET1,ASEXPRESSEDINTHEEQUATIONBELOWEQUATION1EMP

34、IRICALRESULTSDESCRIPTIVEANALYSISTABLESIIIISHOWTHEDESCRIPTIVEANALYSISTABLEIPANELASHOWSTHATMAJORITYOFFIRMSINOURSAMPLEARECLASSIFIEDASNONMANUFACTURING60PERCENT20FIRMSANDTHERESTAREMANUFACTURINGFIRMSTHENONMANUFACTURINGFIRMSINCLUDERETAILERS,WHOLESALERSANDSERVICEBUSINESSESTABLEIPANELBSHOWSTHATTHESAMPLESPREA

35、DSOVERTHEINDUSTRYSECTORSINTOBUSINESSANDSUPPORTSERVICES,CONSTRUCTIONANDBUILDINGMATERIALS,GENERALRETAILERS,ELECTRONICANDELECTRICALEQUIPMENTS,FOODPRODUCERSANDPROCESSORSANDOTHERDIVERSIFIEDSECTORSITISALSOCLEARFROMTHETABLETHATBUSINESSANDSUPPORTSERVICESTOGETHERWITHCONSTRUCTIONANDBUILDINGMATERIALSFIRMSREPRE

36、SENT57PERCENTOFTHESAMPLESIZEINTHEYEAROFEARNINGSGROWTHDECLINES,FIRMSDIFFERINTHEIRDIVIDENDDECISIONSCORRESPONDINGLY,TABLEIISHOWSTHATMOSTOFFIRMSDECIDEDTOINCREASEDIVIDENDSINTHEDECLINEYEAR80PERCENTOFTHESAMPLE,WHILE20PERCENTOFTHESAMPLEDECREASESTHEIRDIVIDENDSPAYMENTSLEVELSTHISPERCENTAGEISCONSISTENTWITHAPGWI

37、LYM2004WHOFOUNDTHAT788PERCENTOFTHEIRSTUDYSAMPLEOFUKFIRMSINCREASESTHEIRDIVIDENDSPAYMENTSLEVELSTOCONVEYVALUERELEVANTINFORMATIONFORINVESTORSABOUTFIRMSFUTUREPROSPECTSINDEANGELOETAL1996ONLY683PERCENTUSDECLINEEARNINGSGROWTHFIRMSINCREASEDTHEIRDIVIDENDSLEVELSRESULTSTABLEIVSHOWSOUREMPIRICALRESULTSTABLEIVPANE

38、LASHOWSNEGATIVEABNORMALFUTUREEARNINGSRESULTSINTHEYEAROFDECLINEFORFIRMSTHATINCREASEORDECREASETHEIRDIVIDENDPAYMENTSTHESERESULTSARECONSISTENTWITHTHEUSSTUDYBYDEANGELOETAL1996ANDUKSTUDYBYAPGWILYM2004ITISPOSSIBLETOCONCLUDETHATMANAGERSAREOVEROPTIMISTICANDTRYTOFOOLINVESTORSBYINCREASINGCASHDIVIDENDPAYMENTSIN

39、THEYEAROFEARNINGSGROWTHDECLINE,EVENIFTHEEXPECTEDFUTUREEARNINGSWILLBEWORSEINORDERTODEFENDTHEFIRMSREPUTATIONINTHEMARKETDEANGELOETAL,1996THEREFORE,THENEGATIVEASSOCIATIONBETWEENDIVIDENDCHANGESANDFUTUREPERFORMANCEINDICATESAQUESTIONOFWHETHERDIVIDENDINCREASEISARESPONSEFORFAVORABLEPROSPECTSORJUSTTOSATISFYDI

40、SAPPOINTEDSHAREHOLDERSABOUTFIRMSEARNINGSAPGWILYMETAL,2004BASEDONTHISRESULT,WEACCEPTH1INCONTRAST,TABLEIVPANELBSHOWSPOSITIVEABNORMALFUTUREEARNINGS12PERCENTFORFIRMSTHATINCREASETHEIRVOLUNTARYFORWARDLOOKINGDISCLOSUREINANNUALREPORTNARRATIVESTHISRESULTSUPPORTSSIGNALINGTHEORYANDINDICATESTHATVOLUNTARYDISCLOS

41、URECHANGESCONVEYVALUERELEVANTINFORMATIONTHATHELPSINVESTORSTOFORECASTFUTUREEARNINGSFORDECLINEEARNINGSGROWTHFIRMSMAINLY,WHENTHEANNUALEARNINGSDECLINEOCCURSAFTERANNUALGROWTHFORSEVERALYEARS,FIRMSAREVARIEDINTHEIRDIVIDENDANDDISCLOSUREPOLICIESHOWEVER,THERESULTSOFOURPAPERSUGGESTTHATINCREASINGLEVELSOFFORWARDL

42、OOKINGINFORMATIONINANNUALREPORTNARRATIVESISTHEONLYIMPORTANTTOOLTOCONVEYVALUERELEVANTINFORMATIONTOINVESTORSABOUTFIRMSFUTUREPERFORMANCEFORFIRMSEXPERIENCINGANEARNINGSDECLINEAFTERSEVERALYEARSOFANNUALEARNINGSGROWTHBASEDONTHISRESULT,WEACCEPTH2CONCLUSIONTHISSTUDYEXAMINEDSIGNALINGHYPOTHESISFORDECLINEEARNING

43、SFIRMSAFTERTHEGROWTHFORATLEASTFOURYEARS,BASEDONASAMPLEOF33NONFINANCIALANDPUBLICLYQUOTEDUKFIRMSINPARTICULAR,ITINVESTIGATEDDIVIDENDANDVOLUNTARYDISCLOSURESIGNALINGRELATIONSHIPWITHFUTUREPERFORMANCEOFTHESEFIRMSBYMEASURESTHEABNORMALFUTUREEARNINGSFORGROWTHADJUSTMENTMODELTHEEMPIRICALRESULTSSHOWEDTHATTHEMAJO

44、RITYOFTHESAMPLE80PERCENTINCREASEDTHEIRDIVIDENDPAYMENTSINTHEYEAROFEARNINGSDECLINECONSISTENTWITHDEANGELOETAL1996ANDAPGWILYM2004,WEFOUNDNEGATIVEABNORMALFUTUREEARNINGSFORDIVIDENDSINCREASERSANDDECREASESTHESEFINDINGSSUGGESTTHATTHECHANGEINDIVIDENDLEVELSISNOTANIMPORTANTSIGNALFORFUTUREPROSPECTSFORDECLINEEARN

45、INGSGROWTHFIRMSFURTHERMORE,BYUSINGNUDISTSOFTWARE,WEFOUND55PERCENTOFTHESAMPLEINCREASEDTHELEVELOFFORWARDLOOKINGVOLUNTARYDISCLOSUREINTHEYEAROFEARNINGSDECLINEWEALSOFOUNDPOSITIVEABNORMALFUTUREEARNINGSFORFIRMSWITHINCREASINGLEVELSOFFORWARDLOOKINGINFORMATIONINANNUALREPORTNARRATIVESTHISSUGGESTEDTHATVOLUNTARY

46、DISCLOSUREISANIMPORTANTMECHANISMFORSIGNALINGFUTUREEARNINGSFORDECLINEEARNINGSGROWTHFIRMSTHISRESEARCHPROVIDESACLEARBENCHMARKABOUTTHERELATIONSHIPBETWEENDIVIDEND,VOLUNTARYDISCLOSUREANDFUTUREPERFORMANCEMOREOVER,UPONOURBESTKNOWLEDGETHEREISNOSTUDYTHATINVESTIGATESTHEASSOCIATIONBETWEENDISCLOSUREANDFUTUREPERF

47、ORMANCEFORDECLINEEARNINGSGROWTHFIRMSTHEREFORE,THISRESEARCHCONTRIBUTESTOTHEDISCLOSURELITERATUREBYEXAMININGSIGNALINGTHEORYINTHERECESSIONPERIODOURFINDINGSARELIMITEDINSEVERALASPECTSFOREXAMPLE,TOACHIEVETHERESEARCHOBJECTIVES,THESAMPLESELECTIONCRITERIALIMITEDTHENUMBEROFFIRMSUNDERINVESTIGATIONTHEREFORE,FUTU

48、RERESEARCHISNEEDEDTOANALYZEALARGENUMBEROFFIRMSANDTOEXAMINETHEPOTENTIALFACTORSTHATPOTENTIALLYDRIVETHECHANGEINDIVIDENDANDVOLUNTARYDISCLOSUREINTHEYEAROFEARNINGSGROWTHDECLINESANOTHERINTERESTINGISSUEFORFUTURERESEARCHWOULDBETOCONSIDERTHEFACTORSTHATDETERMINETHECHOICEBETWEENDIVIDENDSSIGNALINGANDDISCLOSURESI

49、GNALINGASALTERNATIVEFORMSOFFINANCIALCOMMUNICATIONFORDECLINEEARNINGSGROWTHFIRMSHUSSAINEYANDWALKER,2009资料来源MANAGERIALAUDITINGJOURNAL200905P445454译文披露及股息收入持续增长之时信号下降KHALEDHUSSAINEYJINANAALEISA目的本文的目的是检查信息是否自愿披露和红利收入增长下降信号对公司未来的收益的影响。它旨在了解增加信息披露和公司增加股利受害后一个年收入持续增长的时期收入下降对投资者的潜在利益的调节器（和管理人员）。设计/方法/方式事件研究方法是用来检查33个非金融英国公司，其持续增长的盈利能力下降的行为。它还使用电脑内容分析来计算前瞻性的年度报告叙述句子。它计算的盈利增长下降的一年披露的变化对股息收入的影响，并探讨未来收益的不正常的关联性。结果与以前的研究相一致，它的发现是增加红利没有传达有关公司未来盈利增长、下降的有关的资料。然而，在以信息披露的信号理论为基础上，它发现，年度报告叙述水平是前瞻性信息的一个信号，这些信号是公司未来收益的重要机制。实际影响对于在股市中盈利的增长后持续下降的年期有效的沟通，管理者应高度优先发展的前瞻性在其年度报告信息的适当和完整的一套。这将会