在孟加拉国的农村地区存在有商业价值的农作物保险吗【外文翻译】.doc

1、本科毕业论文外文翻译外文题目ISTHEREACOMMERCIALLYVIABLEMARKETFORCROPINSURANCEINRURALBANGLADESH出处MITIGADAPTSTRATEGGLOBCHANGE200914215229作者SONIAAKTER,ROYBROUWER,SARIACHOUDHURY,SALINAAZIZ原文ISTHEREACOMMERCIALLYVIABLEMARKETFORCROPINSURANCEINRURALBANGLADESHABSTRACTTHESTUDYAIMSTOASSESSTHECOMMERCIALVIABILITYOFAPOTENTIALCR

2、OPINSURANCEMARKETINBANGLADESHINALARGESCALEHOUSEHOLDSURVEY,AGRICULTURALFARMHOUSEHOLDSWEREASKEDFORTHEIRPREFERENCESFORAHYPOTHETICALCROPINSURANCESCHEMEUSINGDOUBLEBOUNDEDDBCONTINGENTVALUATIONCVMETHODBOTHREVENUEANDPRODUCTIONCOSTBASEDINDEMNITYPAYMENTAPPROACHESWEREAPPLIEDTOASSESSTHECOMMERCIALVIABILITYOFACRO

3、PINSURANCEPROGRAMASSUMINGAPARTNERAGENTPAMODELOFINSURANCESUPPLYCROPINSURANCEISFOUNDMARGINALLYCOMMERCIALLYVIABLEINRIVERINEFLOODPLAINAREASTHEEXPECTEDINDEMNITYPAYABLECONSISTENTLYEXCEEDSTHEEXPECTEDINSURANCEPREMIUMRECEIVABLEBYTHEINSURERFORTHEHOUSEHOLDSLIVINGINWETLANDBASINANDCOASTALFLOODPLAINWECONCLUDETHAT

4、AUNIFORMSTRUCTUREOFCROPINSURANCEMARKETDOESNOTEXISTINBANGLADESHTHENATUREOFTHEDISASTERRISKSFACEDBYTHEFARMHOUSEHOLDSANDTHESOCIOECONOMICCHARACTERISTICSOFTHERURALFARMCOMMUNITIESNEEDTOBETAKENINTOCAREFULCONSIDERATIONWHILEDESIGNINGSUCHANINSURANCESCHEMEKEYWORDSCROPINSURANCECOMMERCIALVIABILITYWILLINGNESSTOPAY

5、DOUBLEBOUNDEDCONTINGENTVALUATIONBANGLADESHINTRODUCTIONAGRICULTURECONTRIBUTESONEQUARTEROFTHEBANGLADESHGDPANDISTHESOURCEOFEMPLOYMENTFORMORETHAN80OFTHERURALPOPULATIONWEATHERRELATEDRISKISAMAJORSOURCEOFINCOMEFLUCTUATIONSFORAGRICULTURALHOUSEHOLDSINBANGLADESHBOTHCOASTALASWELLASINLANDFARMHOUSEHOLDSFACENATUR

6、ALDISASTERRISKSDUETOITSGEOGRAPHICALLOCATIONANDVERYLOWLANDELEVATIONTHEINCREASEDVOLUMEOFRAINFALLANDOTHERCATASTROPHICEVENTSCAUSEDBYCLIMATECHANGEDURINGTHEPASTDECADESHAVEINTENSIFIEDTHELIVELIHOODRISKFACEDBYAGRICULTURALFARMERSINTHISPARTOFTHEWORLDTHEMANAGEMENTOFINHERENTANDINCREASEDAMOUNTOFRISKASSOCIATEDWITH

7、AGRICULTURALCROPPRODUCTIONHASREMAINEDTHEKEYCHALLENGEINTHEPOVERTYREDUCTIONPROGRAMOFBANGLADESHFORTHEPASTFEWDECADESTRADITIONALLY,THEMANAGEMENTOFCATASTROPHERISKSINBANGLADESHAGRICULTUREHASREVOLVEDAROUNDINFRASTRUCTURALMEASURESSUCHASBUILDINGEMBANKMENTSANDEXPOSTDISASTERRELIEFMEASURES,INCLUDINGINCREASEDACCES

8、STOPOSTDISASTERCREDITFACILITIESFOLLOWINGTHEOVERWHELMINGSUCCESSOFMICROCREDITINBANGLADESH,THEREISAGROWINGOPTIMISMINMICROINSURANCESOLUTIONSTOPROTECTRURALFARMERSFROMINCOMESHOCKSRESULTINGFROMCATASTROPHICRISKSTHEAIMOFTHEPROPOSEDDISASTERMICROINSURANCEISTOSPREADTHERISKSOFNATURALDISASTERSESPECIALLYFORTHEPOOR

9、COUNTERPARTOFTHEPOPULATIONINORDERTOMAKETHEMBETTERPREPAREDTOCOPEWITHINCREASEDCLIMATICDISASTERSSUCHASFLOODS,CYCLONESANDSTORMSURGESWHILSTTHEUSEOFMICROINSURANCETOCOVERLIFEANDHEALTHRISKSISPREVALENTTOSOMEEXTENT,THEUSEOFMICROINSURANCETOHEDGEAGAINSTNATURALDISASTERLOSSESINRURALAREASOFBANGLADESHISSTILLONLYEME

10、RGINGTHENATIONALADAPTATIONPROGRAMOFACTIONNAPA2005,PREPAREDBYTHEMINISTRYOFENVIRONMENTANDFORESTS,SUGGESTSEXPLORINGOPTIONSFORSPREADINGNATURALDISASTERRISKSBYINVESTIGATINGTHEPOTENTIALOFCROPINSURANCEMARKETSSOTHATAGRICULTURALFARMERSAREBETTERPREPAREDTOCOPEWITHTHEINCREASEDRISKOFCROPDAMAGETWOFEASIBILITYSTUDIE

11、S,ONEBYTHEMINISTRYOFCOMMERCEANDANOTHERBYTHEDEPARTMENTOFENVIRONMENT,ARECURRENTLYUNDERWAYTOTESTTHEFEASIBILITYOFCROPINSURANCEINTHEMOSTCALAMITYPRONEAREASOFBANGLADESHALTHOUGHMICROINSURANCEISOFTENREFERREDTOASANEFFECTIVETOOLFORREDUCING,SHARINGORSPREADINGCLIMATERELATEDCOSTSANDRISKS,THECOMMERCIALVIABILITYOFS

12、UCHINSURANCESCHEMESHASBEENAKEYCHALLENGEFORPOORDEVELOPINGECONOMIESASTHETRANSFEROFLOSSESFROMAFFECTEDGROUPSTOTHECOMMUNITYATLARGEISNOTFEASIBLEATANAFFORDABLEPREMIUMRATEALTHOUGHTHEEXPERIENCEANDAVAILABLEINFORMATIONARETOOLIMITEDTOREACHANYCONCLUSIONABOUTSUCHSCHEMES,OVERALL,CROPINSURANCEHASNOTBEENVERYSUCCESSF

13、ULBASEDONSTANDARDCOMMERCIALCRITERIATHROUGHOUTTHEWORLDESPECIALLYINDEVELOPINGCOUNTRIESWHERETHEPOORESTCOUNTERPARTSOFTHEPOPULATIONOFTENFINDTHEMSELVESINASPIRALOFRECURRENTDAMAGESDUETONATURALCALAMITIES,DISASTERINSURANCESCHEMESFAILTOEARNENOUGHPREMIUMINCOMETOCOVERPAYOUTSASWELLASADMINISTRATIVECOSTSTHEAIMOFTHE

14、STUDYPRESENTEDHEREISTOASSESSTHEFINANCIALVIABILITYOFAPOTENTIALCROPINSURANCEMARKETINBANGLADESH,ONEOFTHEPOORESTANDMOSTDISASTERPRONECOUNTRIESINTHEWORLDINALARGESCALEHOUSEHOLDSURVEYCARRIEDOUTATTHEENDOF2006,3600RIVERINEANDCOASTALFLOODPLAINRESIDENTSINBANGLADESHWEREASKEDFORTHEIRPREFERENCESFORCROPINSURANCESCH

15、EMESUSINGTHEDOUBLEBOUNDEDDBCONTINGENTVALUATIONCVMETHOD,IEASKINGTHEMFORTHEIRWILLINGNESSTOPAYWTPFORCROPINSURANCESCHEMESTOELIMINATEFUTURECATASTROPHERISKSALTHOUGHAPPLICATIONOFCVTOESTIMATECROPINSURANCEDEMANDISFAIRLYWIDESPREADNOWADAYS,SUCHANEXTENSIVEANDEXPLICITFEASIBILITYTESTOFAPOTENTIALCROPINSURANCEMARKE

16、TINASEVERELYNATURALDISASTERPRONEDEVELOPINGCOUNTRYISCURRENTLYLACKINGPREVIOUSSTUDIESMAINLYFOCUSEDONESTIMATINGAVERAGEWTPANDINDETERMININGTHEFACTORSTHATAFFECTDEMANDFORCROPINSURANCETHECURRENTSTUDYGOESBEYONDESTIMATIONOFAVERAGEWTP,USINGTHEDATAOBTAINEDTHROUGHANEXTENSIVEDBCVSURVEY,BYTESTINGASIMPLEANALYTICALMO

17、DELOFLONGTERMSUSTAINABILITYANDCOMMERCIALVIABILITYOUTLINEDBYHAZELLALTHOUGHTHEREARENUMEROUSRELEVANTACTUARIALISSUESASSOCIATEDWITHANINSURANCEDESIGNASWELLEGPREMIUMSETTING,ADVERSESELECTION,MORALHAZARD,THEYFALLOUTSIDETHESCOPEOFTHECURRENTSTUDYWEAREPRIMARILYINTERESTEDINTESTINGPOTENTIALITYOFAFUTURECROPINSURAN

18、CEMARKETBASEDONBASICCOSTRECOVERYCRITERIAACROSSSPATIALLYDISPERSEDGEOGRAPHICALAREASTHATDIFFERINTERMSOFENVIRONMENTALRISKSANDSOCIOECONOMICCHARACTERISTICSANALYTICALFRAMEWORKTHEANALYTICALFRAMEWORKOFTHISSTUDYISBASEDONASIMPLEMODELUSEDBYHAZELLACCORDINGTOHAZELL,THEPREMIUMCOLLECTEDONANINSURANCESCHEMEMUSTEXCEED

19、AVERAGEPAYOUTSINORDERTOENSURETHEVIABILITYOFTHEINSURANCECONTRACT,WHEREAVERAGEPAYOUTISMODELEDBYSUMMINGUPBOTHADMINISTRATIVECOSTSPERINSURANCECONTRACTANDINDEMNITIESTHETERMINDEMNITYREFERSTOTHECOMPENSATIONSUMTHATINSURERSMAKETOTHEHOLDEROFTHEINSURANCECONTRACTUPONPOSTASSESSMENTOFDAMAGEDUETOADISASTEREVENTWEHYP

20、OTHESIZEDASIMPLEDESIGNOFLINEARINDEMNITYPAYOUTFUNCTIONOFTHEFOLLOWINGFORMFORASPECIFICINSURANCESCHEMEIIIDIIFDISASTEREVENTSTRIKESII0IFDISASTEREVENTDOESNOTSTRIKEWHERE,INSURERDIDAMAGEINCURREDBYTHEINSUREDIIINDEMNITYPAIDBYTHETHEREFORE,THECONDITIONFORAVIABLEANDSUSTAINABLEINSURANCECONTRACTTAKESTHEFOLLOWINGFOR

21、MHAZELL1992AI/P1WHEREAAVERAGEADMINISTRATIVECOSTSPERINSURANCECONTRACTIAVERAGEINDEMNITIESPAIDPAVERAGEPREMIUMSRECEIVEDHAZELL1992USESTIMESERIESDATAOVERTHEPERIOD19751989FORSEVENCOUNTRIESTOTESTTHELONGTERMVIABILITYANDSUSTAINABILITYOFCROPINSURANCEPROGRAMSINVIEWOFTHEFACTTHATANINSURANCEMARKETCURRENTLYDOESNOTE

22、XISTINBANGLADESH,HAZELLSMODELWASESTIMATEDUSINGEXPECTEDVALUESEXPECTEDINDEMNITYPAYMENTFORCROPINSURANCEWASPROXIEDBYAVERAGECROPDAMAGECOSTSINCURREDBYHOUSEHOLDSINADISASTEREVENTPRIORTOTHESURVEYYEAREXPECTEDPREMIUMPERCONTRACTFORCROPINSURANCEWASESTIMATEDONTHEBASISOFDATAORIGINATINGFROMACVSURVEYTHROUGHADBDCELIC

23、ITATIONMETHODRESPONDENTS,UNDERTHISVALUATIONMETHOD,AREASKEDTWOWTPQUESTIONSDOYOUACCEPTASTARTBIDCIANDDOYOUACCEPTAFOLLOWUPBIDBIBASEDONTHESETWOQUESTIONS,FOURPOSSIBLEINTERVALSFORWTPCANBECONSTRUCTED,NAMELYWTP1REJECTINGBOTHTHESTARTBIDCIANDFOLLOWUPBIDBIWTP2REJECTINGTHESTARTBIDCIANDACCEPTINGTHEFOLLOWUPBIDBIWT

24、P3ACCEPTINGTHESTARTBIDCIANDREJECTINGTHEFOLLOWUPBIDDIWTP4ACCEPTINGBOTHTHESTARTBIDCIANDFOLLOWUPBIDDITHEAVERAGEWTPFORCROPINSURANCEWASESTIMATEDUSINGSTANDARDSTATISTICALSOFTWARETHEESTIMATEDAVERAGEWTPVALUESWEREUSEDTOCALCULATEFUTUREVALUESOFEXPECTEDINSURANCEPREMIUMSRECEIVABLEBYTHEINSURERSUSINGTHEFOLLOWINGFOR

25、MULAPEWTP1RN1/RWHEREPEFUTUREVALUEOFINSURANCEPREMIUMPERINSURANCECONTRACTRINTERESTRATENNUMBEROFPAYMENTSWTPESTIMATEDAVERAGEWILLINGNESSTOPAYFORCROPINSURANCEAPARTNERAGENTPAMODELOFINSTITUTIONALFRAMEWORKWASASSUMEDFORINSURANCESUPPLYINAPAMODEL,INSURANCECOMPANIESANDMICROCREDITPROVIDERSCOLLABORATETOJOINTLYOFFE

26、RTHEINSURANCESCHEMESGENERALLY,INSURANCECOMPANIESBEARTHEFULLRISK,WHILEMICROCREDITPROVIDERSCARRYOUTMOSTOFTHEFIELDLEVELOPERATIONALANDADMINISTRATIVEWORKTHROUGHTHEIRESTABLISHEDEXTENSIVECLIENTNETWORKADMINISTRATIVECOSTOFOFFERING,DISTRIBUTINGANDMAINTAININGINSURANCECONTRACTSUNDERSUCHAMODELISREDUCEDEITHERTOZE

27、ROORTOAVERYNEGLIGIBLEAMOUNTPERINSURANCECONTRACTSUMMARYANDCONCLUSIONTHEAIMOFTHESTUDYPRESENTEDHEREWASTOASSESSTHECOMMERCIALVIABILITYOFAHYPOTHETICALCROPINSURANCEMARKETINRURALAREASFACINGFOURDIFFERENTTYPESOFNATURALDISASTERRISKSTHREETHOUSANDSIXHUNDREDRESIDENTSWEREASKEDABOUTTHENATUREANDEXTENTOFDAMAGECOSTSIN

28、CURREDDUETOCATASTROPHICEVENTSANDTHEIRWTPTOREDUCEDAMAGERISKSUSINGTHEDBCVMETHODWEFINDAROUNDHALFOFTHESAMPLEHOUSEHOLDSWASWILLINGTOBUYANINSURANCEINPRINCIPLEWHICHINDEEDINDICATESLOWDEMANDFORCROPINSURANCEMAJORITYOFTHOSERESPONDENTSWHODIDNOTAGREETOBUYANINSURANCEINDICATEDLACKOFMONEYINCOMEASREASONFORNOTBUYINGIN

29、SURANCETHISFINDINGCONFIRMSTHATINCOMECONSTRAINTISAMAJORDEMANDSIDEOBSTACLETOSETUPADISASTERINSURANCEMARKETINDEVELOPINGCOUNTRIESHOWEVER,ACONSIDERABLYLARGEPROPORTION33OFTHERESPONDENTSWHODIDNOTWANTTOBUYDISASTERINSURANCEINPRINCIPLEINDICATEDTHATTHEYDIDNOTLIKETHETERMSANDCONDITIONSOFTHEPROPOSEDINSURANCESCHEME

30、THISFINDINGISIMPORTANTTOTAKEONBOARDWHILEDESIGNINGAMICROINSURANCESCHEMEFORRURALPOPULATIONINBANGLADESHASTHISFINDING,TOSOMEEXTENT,REFLECTSTHATACOMPLETELYCONVENTIONALTYPEOFINSURANCEMARKETMAYNOTBEPOPULARAMONGTHETARGETCLIENTSOURSTUDYREVEALSTHATCROPINSURANCEDEMANDVARIESACROSSHOUSEHOLDHEADSPRIMARYOCCUPATION

31、,LANDOWNERSHIPANDSIZEOFTHEFARMLANDWEFINDTHATITWASMAINLYAGRICULTURALFARMERSWHOOWNEDLARGEPARCELSOFFARMLANDWEREWILLINGTOBUYCROPINSURANCETOPROTECTTHEMSELVESAGAINSTTHERISKSOFCATASTROPHICDAMAGEOURSTUDYFURTHERREVEALSTHATCROPDAMAGECOSTANDHOUSEHOLDWTPTOREDUCECROPDAMAGEVARYSIGNIFICANTLYACROSSTHENATUREOFTHEDIS

32、ASTERRISKSHOUSEHOLDSWHOSUFFEREDFROMTHEHIGHESTAVERAGECROPDAMAGECOSTSPERCATASTROPHICEVENTWEREWILLINGTOPAYTHELOWESTPREMIUMTOAVOIDCROPDAMAGERISKSWESHOWTHATSUCHPARADOXICALRESULTINESTIMATEDWTPARISESDUETOTHEEXISTINGDISPARITYINAVERAGEHOUSEHOLDINCOMEINDIFFERENTRISKAREASHOWEVER,ITISIMPORTANTTONOTETHATTHEDEMAN

33、DANALYSISPRESENTEDINTHISPAPERISPRIMARILYBASEDONOBSERVEDASSOCIATIONSANDRELATIONSHIPSUSINGLINEARCORRELATIONSANDNONPARAMETRICTESTINGPROCEDURESAMOREEXTENDEDDETERMINISTICMODELTOFURTHERTESTTHEUNDERLYINGCAUSALRELATIONSHIPSANDTHEIRDIRECTIONSWASBEYONDTHESCOPEOFTHECURRENTSTUDYONTHEBASISOFTHECROPDAMAGECOSTDATA

34、OBTAINEDFROMTHEHOUSEHOLDSURVEY,WECALCULATEEXPECTEDAVERAGEINDEMNITYPAYMENTBYTHEPOTENTIALINSURANCEPROVIDERSONTHEBASISOFTWODIFFERENTINDEMNITYPAYOUTPRINCIPLES,NAMELYFORGONEREVENUEINCOMEANDPRODUCTIONCOSTUSINGAVERAGECROPDAMAGECOSTINCURREDBYFARMHOUSEHOLDSINDIFFERENTRISKAREAS,WETESTEDOURSIMPLEANALYTICALMODE

35、LOFCOMMERCIALVIABILITYBYCOMPARINGTHEFUTUREVALUEOFTHEEXPECTEDPREMIUMRECEIVABLEBYTHEINSURERWITHTHEEXPECTEDINDEMNITYPAYABLETOTHEINSUREDASSUMINGZEROADMINISTRATIVECOSTAND10INTERESTRATEPERANNUM,WEFINDCROPINSURANCESCHEMESAREMARGINALLYVIABLEINRIVERINEFLOODPLAINAREASTHEDISCREPANCYBETWEENAVERAGEEXPECTEDINDEMN

36、ITYPAYMENTANDFUTUREVALUEOFEXPECTEDINSURANCEPREMIUMISTOOLARGETOBECONVERGEDBYTHEVARIATIONINDAMAGECOSTESTIMATIONORTHEINDEMNITYPAYOUTFUNCTIONTHREEIMPORTANTPOLICYIMPLICATIONSFOLLOWFROMTHERESULTSPRESENTEDINTHISSTUDYFIRST,THEFINDINGSOFTHESTUDYSUGGESTTHATAUNIFORMSTRUCTUREOFCROPINSURANCEMARKETDOESNOTEXISTINB

37、ANGLADESHCROPDAMAGEVARIESDEPENDINGONTHENATUREOFCATASTROPHERISKSANDWTPVARIESDEPENDINGONTHESOCIOECONOMICCHARACTERISTICSOFRURALCOMMUNITIESLIVINGINDIFFERENTRISKAREASHENCE,CROPINSURANCESCHEMENEEDSTOBEDEVELOPEDCAREFULLYBYTAKINGTHESETWOKEYCRITERIONSINTOCONSIDERATIONSECOND,THEFEASIBILITYTESTRESULTSPRESENTED

38、INTHISPAPERDEMONSTRATETHATTHECROPDAMAGERISKSFACEDBYTHEFARMHOUSEHOLDSLIVINGINTHEWETLANDBASINANDTHECOASTALFLOODPLAINARENOTINSURABLETHEESTIMATEDINDEMNITYPAYABLEBYTHEINSURERS,INTHESETWORISKAREAS,CONSISTENTLYEXCEEDSTHEEXPECTEDINSURANCEPREMIUMRECEIVABLETHEESTIMATEDDISCREPANCIESBETWEENEXPECTEDINDEMNITYANDE

39、XPECTEDPREMIUMSEEMTOOLARGETOBEFINANCEDBYGOVERNMENTSUBSIDYONACONTINUOUSBASISFINALLY,ITAPPEARSFROMTHEEMPIRICALRESULTSPRESENTEDINTHISSTUDYTHATTHECHOICEOFANINDEMNITYPAYOUTFUNCTIONPLAYSACRUCIALROLEINDETERMININGTHECOMMERCIALVIABILITYOFCROPINSURANCESCHEMEONTHEBASISOFTHEFEASIBILITYTESTRESULTSITCANBECONCLUDE

40、DTHATACROPINSURANCESCHEMEBASEDONAPRODUCTIONCOSTBASEDINDEMNITYPAYOUTFUNCTIONISWORTHFURTHERINVESTIGATIONINREVIRINEEMBANKEDANDUNEMBANKEDAREASHOWEVER,ITISIMPORTANTTONOTETHATTHEFINANCIALVIABILITYRESULTSTHATWEPORTRAYEDINTHISSTUDYIGNOREADMINISTRATIVEIMPLEMENTATIONCOSTSOFINSURANCECONTRACTESSENTIALLY,APOSITI

41、VEANDCONSIDERABLYHIGHADMINISTRATIVECOSTMAYRESULTINTHECROPINSURANCESCHEMEBEINGIMPRACTICAL,EVENINRIVERINEFLOODPLAINAREASWEUSEDTHISSTUDYTOSETOUTAMETHODOLOGYFORTESTINGCOMMERCIALVIABILITYOFAPOTENTIALMICROINSURANCEMARKETATTHEPRELIMINARYSTAGEOFPOLICYIMPLEMENTATIONWEPROPOSE,THROUGHTHETESTINGOFOUROWNCASESTUD

42、Y,THATSUCHANANALYTICALMODELCOULDBEUSEFULFORPOLICYMAKERSANDDEVELOPMENTPRACTITIONERSTOTAILORTHEINSURANCEPRODUCTFORTARGETCLIENTSANDTOROUGHLYESTIMATETHEAMOUNTOFSUBSIDYTHATTHEPUBLICPROVISIONOFSUCHADISASTERRISKMITIGATINGSCHEMEMAYREQUIREATTHEVERYOUTSET译文在孟加拉国的农村地区存在有商业价值的农作物保险吗摘要文章的目的是为评估农作物保险在孟加拉等国的潜在的商业可

43、行性服务市场。保险计划假设一个PA的模式供应保险。作物保险在河流泛滥的平原地区发现商业价值。这预期持续超出在湿地盆地和沿海平原的预期赔偿支付保险费。认为在孟加拉等国不存在一个统一结构的农作物保险市场。面临灾难和风险的农户和社会需要一个考虑到这些因为的保险方案。关键词农作物保险；商业价值；购买意愿；双界评估；孟加拉国引言农业为孟加拉国贡献四分之一的国民生产总值（GDP），超过80的农村人口是孟加拉国的就业来源。天气的波动风险对于孟加拉等国的农村地区来说是是一个主要收入来源。内陆河沿海地区的农户都要面对由于特殊的地理环境和极低的土地的水平造成的自然灾害风险。在过去的几十年里，气候变化导致降水量增加

44、和其他灾难性的事件发生是农民所要面临的风险，这成为了这个世界的一部分。在过去的几十年里，在孟加拉国防范增加农作物生产的内在和相关的数额的风险已经成为减少贫困的主要程序。传统上,在孟加拉农业灾害风险管理围绕着基础措施，如堤防建设和事后救灾措施，包括增加的灾后的信贷设施等。证明的孟加拉国最成功的是小额保险，它保护农村农民避免收入冲击造成的灾难性风险，所以越来越多的人对小额保险持乐观的态度。提出灾难的小额保险的目的是为穷苦的人们分散自然灾害风险，为了使他们对与更大的气候灾害做好准备，比如洪水、飓风和暴浪。而在某种程度上，使用小额保险来规避的生活与健康风险是普遍的，在孟加拉的农村地区使用小额保险来对冲

45、自然灾害损失只是刚刚浮出水面。由森林和环境保护局制定的国家适应行动纲领NAPA2005,建议通过调查的潜在农作物保险市场，选择推广自然灾害风险，能使农民们更好地做好准备应付日益增加的庄稼损失的风险。由商务部和环境保护局研究，在孟加拉等国目前还在对农作物保险的可行性进行研究。尽管小额保险常被视为一种减少有效的工具，共享和传播与气候有关的风险和成本。保险方案的商业可行性，对于穷人发展经济来说是最重要的。对于整个社会来说，对受影响的进行损失的转移不可能在一个比较合理的保险费率。虽然对于达成这样的方案任何结论来说，经验和可利用的信息太局限，总的来说，在全世界，基于商业标准，农作物保险一直不是很成功的。

46、特别是在那些由于自然灾害不断发生损失，拥有最贫困人群的发展中国家，为了支付管理成本，投保灾难保险计划，根本没有获得足够的保费收入。本文研究的主要目的是对孟加拉等国，世界上最贫困，灾难最容易发生的地区的潜在的农作物保险市场进行财务的可行性评估。在2006年末，开展对大型的家庭支出调查。在孟加拉等国，3600沿海居民被要求对自己喜好的农作物保险计划进行调查。使用双界（DB）和或有评估（CV）方法，问他们为消除未来灾害风险，对作物的保险计划的支付意愿（WTP）。尽管现在估计农作物保险需求时应用或有评估已相当广泛。这样一个广泛的、明确的可行性试验，在有严重自然灾害发展中国家一个潜在的农作物保险市场是十

47、分缺乏的。之前的研究主要集中在平均支付意愿和对作物保险需求影响最大的因素的确定。目前的研究超越了平均支付意愿，使用获得的数据进行了广泛的双界（DB）和或有评估（CV）调查，HAZELL建立了对商业可行性探析的一个长期可持续的简单的解析试验模型。虽然有许多有关保险精算相关的问题，也为设计提供了一揽子保险，他们的研究超出了范围。我们主要的兴趣是从各个不同环境风险和社会经济的特性来测试分散在不同区域的基于基本成本回收标准的未来农业保险市场的潜力。分析框架这个研究的分析框架是基于HAZELL用的一个简单的模型。根据HAZELL的理论，为了保证保险合同的可行性，保险费收取必须是保险计划超过平均支付，平均

48、支付是一个既定的模型，通过总结行政每个保险合同和赔偿的成本。这里的“赔偿”条款是指赔偿金额，保险公司在保险事故发生后评估损失。我们为一个特定的保险计划假设了简单的线性补偿支付功能，用以下的形式如果灾难停止，IIDI如果灾难事件没有停止，II0其中II代表保险人赔偿；DI代表费用由被保险人承担。因此，订立一个可行和可持续保险合同的条件需要满足下列条件AI/P1其中A代表每个保险合同的平均行政成本；I代表平均支付赔偿；P代表平均收到的保险费。HAZELL使用时间序列数据，在19751989年这段时间里为7个国家测试了农作物保险项目的长期生存能力和可持续发展能力。事实证明保险市场目前不存在于孟加拉等

49、国。HAZELL的模型用于估计期望价值。农作物保险的预期支付赔偿由会计计算家庭所遭受的灾难事件后的平均作物灾害损失。农作物保险的预期支付赔偿是从或有评估调查到双界评估的启发式方法在数据的基础上进行估计的。用这种评估方法，受访者被问了两个支付意愿的问题你接受一个初始价格CI吗你接受一个后续价格BI吗基于这两个问题，可以建立四个关于支付意愿的可能情况，即WTP1拒绝起始价CI和后续价格BI；WTP2拒绝起始价CI和接受后续价格BI；WTP3拒绝起始价CI和接受后续价格DI；WTP4拒绝起始价CI和后续价格DI。农作物保险的平均支付意愿使用标准的统计软件来估算。估计的平均支付意愿价值被保险公司用来计算预期应收保险费的未来价值，使用下面的计算公式PEWTP1RN1/R其中PE代表每个保险合同的未来价值；R代表利息率；N代表支付的数量；WTP代表为了农作物保险平均愿意支付的值。一个合伙代理人（PA）模型假定是制度框架下的保险供应。在一个PA模型中，保险公司和小额贷款供应商合作共同提供保险方案。一般来说，保险公司负担全部风险，小额贷款供应商通过建立了广泛的客户网络执行大部分的现场操作和行政工作。在这个模型里，每个保险合同的行政成本的提供、分发和维护，会降到零或很微不足道的金额。总结和结论本文研究的目的是面对四种类型的自然灾害风险，评估在农村地区一个农作物保险市场的商业可能性。360