政府财政和经济增长以政策的视角看斯里兰卡发展中的经济【外文翻译】.doc

1、本科毕业论文外文翻译外文题目GOVERNMENTFINANCESANDECONOMICGROWTHAPOLICYPERSPECTIVEONTHEDEVELOPINGECONOMYOFSRILANK出处ASIAPACIFICDEVELOPMENTJOURNAL作者PARTHAPRATIMGHOSHINTHISPAPER,WEANALYSETHEFISCALPOLICYORIENTATIONOFTHEDEVELOPINGECONOMYOFSRILANKAINTHECONTEXTOFTHEGROWTHPERFORMANCEOFTHEECONOMYDURINGTHEPERIOD19752000,USI

2、NGANINTEGRATEDINPUTOUTPUTANDMACROECONOMETRICMODELTHEPAPERDRAWSUPONTHEGOVERNMENTSPOLICYAPPROACHTOWARDSFASTERECONOMICGROWTHTHEEMPIRICALFINDINGSSHOWTHATTHEGOVERNMENTSBUDGETDEFICITSARENOTPRIMARILYTHERESULTOFANEXCESSOFCONSUMPTIONOVERREVENUERATHER,OTHERCURRENTEXPENSES,SUCHASGOVERNMENTTRANSFERSANDINTERESTP

3、AYMENTS,HAVEBEENTHEMAINCAUSEOFTHECOUNTRYSMOUNTINGPUBLICDEBTTHEPROPORTIONOFGOVERNMENTINVESTMENTINTOTALGOVERNMENTOUTLAYSHASDECLINEDOVERTIMETHISCOULDBEAMAJOROBSTACLETOECONOMICGROWTHATTHESAMETIME,THEGOVERNMENTSRECURRINGBUDGETDEFICITSHAVELEDTOANESCALATINGNATIONALDEBT,ANDTHEMONETIZATIONOFDEFICITSHASCREATE

4、DINFLATIONARYPRESSURESINORDERTOARRESTTHESETRENDSANDENCOURAGEECONOMICGROWTH,REDUCINGTHECURRENTDEFICITSINTHEGOVERNMENTBUDGETSISIMPERATIVEDOMESTICPRIVATEINVESTMENT,FOREIGNDIRECTINVESTMENTANDGOVERNMENTINVESTMENTHAVETOBECOMBINEDASCOMPLEMENTARYFORCESTOENSURERAPIDECONOMICGROWTHINTHECOUNTRYACCORDINGTOECONOM

5、ICTHEORY,FISCALDEFICITSANDGOVERNMENTDEBTSQUEEZEOUTTHEGROWTHPOTENTIALOFANECONOMYABELANDBERNANKE,2001THISISNOTTRUEOFADEMANDCONSTRAINEDECONOMYITALSODOESNOTHOLDTRUEWHENTHEGOVERNMENTRUNSADEFICITTOMAKEINVESTMENTEXPENDITURES,SINCEINVESTMENTLEADSTOGROWTHMANYDEVELOPINGCOUNTRIESHAVEBEENINTERESTEDINREDUCINGGOV

6、ERNMENTACTIVITIESINTHEREALMOFECONOMICS,CONSONANTWITHENCOURAGEMENTTOTHEPRIVATESECTORINTHISPAPER,WEHAVEATTEMPTEDTOCREATEAHOLISTICPICTUREOFTHEOVERALLFISCALSCENARIOINONESUCHDEVELOPINGECONOMY,NAMELY,SRILANKATHERESULTSOBTAINEDFROMTHEANALYSISOFDATAONGOVERNMENTFINANCESARETHENINTERPRETEDWITHTHEHELPOFANINTEGR

7、ATEDINPUTOUTPUTANDMACROECONOMETRICMODELDEVELOPEDFORSRILANKA,WHICHISBRIEFLYOUTLINEDLATERINTHEPAPERMODERNGROWTHTHEORYENCOURAGESGOVERNMENTINVESTMENTINTHEAREASOFINFRASTRUCTURE,EDUCATION,HEALTHANDSIMILARAREASINADEVELOPINGECONOMYTHATREQUIRESAHIGHRATEOFGROWTH,WESHOULDENCOURAGEBOTHPRIVATEINVESTMENTANDGOVERN

8、MENTINVESTMENTTHEGOVERNMENTSTATEDTHATMEETINGTHECHALLENGEOFBRINGINGTHEPUBLICDEBTUNDERCONTROLREQUIREDDECISIVEACTIONINTWOAREASTHEFIRSTOBJECTIVEWASTOCREATEANENVIRONMENTWHERENATIONALINCOMEGREWFASTERTHANTHEPUBLICDEBT,PERMITTINGTHECOUNTRYTO“OUTGROW”THEDEBTBURDENTHESECONDOBJECTIVEWASTOREDUCETHEBUDGETDEFICIT

9、TOSLOWANDEVENTUALLYREVERSETHEINCREASESINPUBLICDEBTTHISWOULDENTAILBOTHREDUCINGPUBLICEXPENDITURESASWELLASINCREASINGREVENUESTHESEADJUSTMENTSWEREUNAVOIDABLEANDWOULDHAVETOBEWELLMANAGEDTOENSURETHATTHEBURDENSWERESHAREDFAIRLYANDDIDNOTIMPOSEANEXCESSIVEBURDENONTHEMOSTVULNERABLEMEMBERSOFSOCIETYITWASALSOESSENTI

10、ALTHATTHEREFORMSBECARRIEDOUTINWAYSTHATDIDNOTLIMITTHEPROSPECTSFORINCREASEDECONOMICGROWTHTHEGOVERNMENTSVIEWRIGHTLYEXPRESSEDCONCERNOVERTHECURRENTDEFICITRATHERTHANTHEOVERALLDEFICIT,BECAUSECAPITALEXPENDITURESBYTHEGOVERNMENTINTHEFORMOFBUILDINGINFRASTRUCTUREORTHROUGHSIMILARACTIVITIESENHANCESTHEFUTUREGROWTH

11、POTENTIALRATHERTHANREDUCINGITADEVELOPINGECONOMYTRYINGTORESTRUCTUREITSFISCALSTANCESHOULDBECAREFULNOTTOBRINGDOWNGOVERNMENTPURCHASESOFGOODSANDSERVICESTOTHEPOINTOFCREATINGAGGREGATEDEMANDDEFICIENCYORTOREDUCEGOVERNMENTINVESTMENTINORDERTOACHIEVEAGIVENTARGETRATIOOFFISCALDEFICITTOGDPGOVERNMENTCONSUMPTIONISAC

12、OMPONENTOFAGGREGATEDEMANDINTHEECONOMYREDUCTIONINTHISCOMPONENTWILLAFFECTCAPACITYUTILIZATIONUNLESSTHEREISAMATCHINGINCREASEINPRIVATESECTORCONSUMPTIONORINVESTMENTORNETEXPORTSALTHOUGHNEOCLASSICALECONOMISTSCLAIMTHATPERMANENTREDUCTIONSINGOVERNMENTPURCHASESWOULDLEADTOPERMANENTINCREASESINDISPOSABLEINCOMEANDS

13、TIMULATEPRIVATECONSUMPTION,THEREISNOCONCRETEEVIDENCEOFSUCHFORWARDLOOKINGBEHAVIOUR,EVENINDEVELOPEDECONOMIESSUCHASTHEUNITEDSTATESOFAMERICAORINADEVELOPINGASIANECONOMY,SUCHASINDIAANYCUTINTHEEXCESSOFCURRENTEXPENDITURESOVERGOVERNMENTFINALCONSUMPTIONEXPENDITURES,IFFEASIBLE,MAYAUGMENTRESOURCESFORINVESTMENTB

14、YTHEGOVERNMENT,INCREASINGTHEGROWTHPOTENTIALOFTHEECONOMYTHEDIFFERENTCATEGORIESOFDEFICITREVEALTHATTHEGOVERNMENTSTAXANDNONTAXREVENUESAREACTUALLYINEXCESSOFITSCURRENTCONSUMPTIONOFFINALGOODSANDSERVICESREDUCINGFINALCONSUMPTIONEXPENDITURESMAYNOTGUARANTEEAMATCHINGINCREASEINPRIVATEFINALCONSUMPTION,DUETOIMPERF

15、ECTIONSINTHEMARKETGOVERNMENTINVESTMENT,WHICHISCRUCIALFORGROWTH,ISONTHEDECLINEASAPROPORTIONOFTHEBUDGETDEFICITGOVERNMENTINVESTMENTASAPROPORTIONOFTHEEXCESSOFCURRENTREVENUEOVERCURRENTCONSUMPTIONISALSOONTHEDECLINEUNDERSUCHCIRCUMSTANCES,THEGOVERNMENTSHOULDTRYTOAUGMENTRESOURCESFORPUBLICINVESTMENTSOTHATTHEP

16、RIVATESECTORMAYFEELENCOURAGEDTOPARTICIPATEITISWIDELYBELIEVEDTHATUNECONOMICGOVERNMENTEXPENDITURELIESBEHINDMANYOFTHEPROBLEMSOFMACROECONOMICMANAGEMENTINDEVELOPINGECONOMIESWEBEGANWITHTHEPROPOSITIONTHATTOTALINVESTMENTHASTWOCOMPONENTSDOMESTICANDFOREIGNITEMERGEDTHATDOMESTICINVESTMENTWASNOTOPERATINGUNDERANA

17、CCELERATORTYPEOFMECHANISM,BECAUSETHECOEFFICIENTOFLAGGEDGDPWASSTATISTICALLYINSIGNIFICANTEVENATTHE10PERCENTLEVELEXPORTDEMANDFORTHECOUNTRYSPRODUCTSWASNOTFOUNDTOBEDEPENDENTONREALINCOMEOFTHEWORLDTHEESTIMATEDFORMOMITSTHEINCOMEEFFECTSUPPOSEDTOBEOPERATINGTHROUGHWORLDGDPBECAUSEITSCOEFFICIENTWASSTATISTICALLYI

18、NSIGNIFICANTINTEGRATINGTHEREALANDMONETARYSECTORSINTHEMACROECONOMETRICSUBMODEL,WEWANTEDTOTAKEINTOACCOUNTBOTHREALANDMONETARYFACTORSINTHEECONOMYTHEPROPOSEDINTEGRATIONWASATTEMPTEDTHROUGHTHEREALRATEOFINTEREST,WHICHINTURNWASMODELLEDASTHEMONEYRATEOFINTERESTNETOFTHEINFLATIONRATEHOWEVER,NEITHERTHECONSUMPTION

19、NORINVESTMENTFUNCTIONSESTIMATEDSHOWEDSIGNIFICANTCOEFFICIENTSFORTHEREALRATEOFINTERESTCONSUMPTIONFOURMAINCATEGORIESWEREIDENTIFIEDAFOOD,BEVERAGESANDTOBACCOBTEXTILES,CLOTHINGANDFOOTWEARCELECTRICITY,WATERANDGASANDDOTHERMANUFACTUREDPRODUCTSALLFOURWEREFOUNDTOBESTRONGLYRELATEDTODISPOSABLEGDPALONEINVESTMENTT

20、HEMODELIDENTIFIEDTWOMAJORCATEGORIESOFINVESTMENTEXPENDITUREACONSTRUCTIONANDLANDDEVELOPMENTANDBMACHINERYANDEQUIPMENTMANUFACTURINGSOMEOFTHEMAINCATEGORIESOFEXPORTSWEREIDENTIFIEDASAOTHERAGRICULTURALPRODUCTSBGARMENTSCNONMETALLICPRODUCTSDOTHERMANUFACTUREDPRODUCTSANDEMACHINERYANDEQUIPMENTMANUFACTURINGIMPORT

21、DETAILSTHEMAINCATEGORIESOFIMPORTSWEREIDENTIFIEDASARUBBERBOTHERAGRICULTURALPRODUCTSCTEXTILESDFOODPROCESSINGECHEMICALSANDCHEMICALPRODUCTSFNONMETALPRODUCTSGOTHERMANUFACTUREDPRODUCTSHMACHINERYANDEQUIPMENTMANUFACTURINGANDIBASICMETALSTHEREFORE,TOINCORPORATEMONETARYANDFISCALPOLICYINTHEMODELLATERON,WEHAVEUS

22、EDTHEALREADYINTRODUCEDCREDITCHANNELVARIABLES,NAMELY,BANKCREDITTOTHEPRIVATESECTORANDBANKCREDITTOTHEGOVERNMENTTHEGOVERNMENTSINTERESTPAYMENTSANDTRANSFERSTOTHEPRIVATESECTORCANBESINGLEDOUTASTHEMAINREASONFORTHEGROWINGBUDGETDEFICIT,LEADINGTOMONETIZATIONTHROUGHBANKCREDITTOTHEGOVERNMENTSECTORANDINFLATIONINTH

23、EECONOMYTHEMAJORCONCLUSIONTHATWEREACHEDISTHATPRIVATESECTORINVESTMENT,THROUGHBANKCREDITTOTHEPRIVATESECTORANDFDI,ANDGOVERNMENTINVESTMENTTHROUGHBANKCREDITTOTHEGOVERNMENTSECTOR,ARECOMPLEMENTARYAHIGHRATEOFINFLATIONBEGETSAHIGHEXPECTEDRATEOFINFLATIONSUCHINFLATIONARYEXPECTATIONSCOULDERODETHEGROWTHPOTENTIALO

24、FTHEECONOMYTHROUGHITSADVERSEIMPACTONTHESUPPLYSIDETHUS,WHILETHEROLEOFGOVERNMENTINVESTMENTINTHEECONOMYISCRUCIAL,ITISEQUALLYIMPORTANTTOUNDERSTANDTHATBANKCREDITTOTHEGOVERNMENTMAYNOTBETHEBESTWAYTOINCREASEGOVERNMENTINVESTMENTTHEGOVERNMENTPOLICYDOCUMENTSRILANKA2002RELIEDONTHEINITIATIVEOFTHEPRIVATESECTORTOI

25、NCREASEINVESTMENTANDSTEPUPGROWTHINTHEECONOMYASPERTHEOFFICIALPOLICY,THEROLEOFTHEGOVERNMENTWOULDBETOCREATEANENVIRONMENTCONDUCIVETOPRIVATEINVESTMENTINTHEECONOMYOURPURPOSEISTODISCOVERWHETHERTHEGOVERNMENTCAN,INADDITION,GENERATERESOURCESFORITSOWNINVESTMENT,WHICHWEBELIEVEWILLATTRACT,SUPPORTANDSUPPLEMENTTHE

26、PROPOSEDPRIVATEINVESTMENTINTHEECONOMYTOTHISEND,WECARRIEDOUTASIMPLEEXERCISEUSINGDATAFROMTHEANNUALREPORT2003OFTHECENTRALBANKOFSRILANKATHEGOVERNMENTSVIEWRIGHTLYEXPRESSEDCONCERNOVERTHECURRENTDEFICITRATHERTHANTHEOVERALLDEFICIT,BECAUSECAPITALEXPENDITURESBYTHEGOVERNMENTINTHEFORMOFBUILDINGINFRASTRUCTUREORTH

27、ROUGHSIMILARACTIVITIESENHANCESTHEFUTUREGROWTHPOTENTIALRATHERTHANREDUCINGITHOWEVER,INTHECONTEXTOFPUBLICDEBT,THEREISABASICDISTINCTIONBETWEENINTERNALANDEXTERNALDEBTANINTERNALDEBTISLIKEREDISTRIBUTIONFROMONESECTIONOFTHESOCIETYTOANOTHERASSUCH,ITENTAILSNONETBURDEN,IFWEPUTDEBTORSANDCREDITORSONTHESAMEFOOTING

28、ANEXTERNALDEBT,ONTHEOTHERHAND,ISDEFINITELYANETBURDENTOTHENATIONALECONOMYANDHASABEARINGONITSCREDITWORTHINESSASPERCEIVEDBYINTERNATIONALDONORSANINCREASEINGOVERNMENTBUDGETDEFICITADDSTOTHEEXISTINGPUBLICDEBTIFTHEGOVERNMENTRAISESTAXRATESINTHEFUTURETORETIRETHISDEBT,THEREMAYBEASSOCIATEDINEFFICIENCIESINREGAIN

29、INGSRILANKASRILANKA2002,THEGOVERNMENTTHEREFOREPROPOSEDBUILDINGA“WORLDCLASSREVENUEAUTHORITY”THATINCORPORATEDSUMMARYINTHEPRESENTPAPER,WEHAVEANALYSEDTHETWINPROBLEMSOFGOVERNMENTBUDGETDEFICITSANDMOUNTINGPUBLICDEBTINSRILANKAINTHECONTEXTOFECONOMICGROWTHWHILEANALYSINGTHEDATAONTHEGOVERNMENTBUDGETSFROM1975TO2

30、000,THEAUTHORSFOUNDACURRENTPRIMARYSURPLUSTHROUGHOUTTHEGOVERNMENTSCURRENTPURCHASESOFGOODSANDSERVICESHAVENOTEXCEEDEDITSTOTALTAXANDNONTAXCOLLECTIONSHOWEVER,THETOTALCURRENTEXPENDITURESOFTHEGOVERNMENTHAVEFALLENSHORTOFTHETAXANDNONTAXREVENUESTHERATIOOFGOVERNMENTINVESTMENTEXPENDITURESTOTHEBUDGETDEFICITHASAL

31、SOBEENLOWTHISLEADSTHEAUTHORSTOCONCLUDETHATTHEGOVERNMENTSTRANSFERPAYMENTSANDITSINTERESTPAYMENTSONPASTDEBTHAVEBEENTHETWOMAINREASONSFORTHECUMULATINGBUDGETDEFICITS,RESULTINGINTHESNOWBALLINGPUBLICDEBTINTHEECONOMYTHECONTINUINGINTERNALETHNICCONFLICTHASALSOPUTAHEAVYBURDENONTHEGOVERNMENTINORDERTOREVERSETHIST

32、REND,THEGOVERNMENTSPOLICYDOCUMENTREGAININGSRILANKASRILANKA,2002PROPOSEDATWOPRONGEDACTIONPLANCONSISTINGOFREDUCTIONSINTHEGOVERNMENTSEXPENDITURESASWELLASINCREASEDREVENUETHROUGHA“WORLDCLASSREVENUEAUTHORITY”THEAUTHORSFINDTHATTHEPASTTRENDOFTHEGOVERNMENTSTOTALTAXANDNONTAXREVENUESISCLOSETOTHEPROJECTIONSOFRE

33、VENUESMADEINTHEPOLICYDOCUMENT,UNDERTHEPROPOSEDREVENUESYSTEMTHEREFORE,THEONLYTWOAREASWHERETHEGOVERNMENTREALLYHASSPACETOMANOEUVREAREITSTRANSFERPAYMENTSINTHEFORMOFSOCIALWELFAREPROGRAMMESANDATTEMPTSTORETIREPASTDEBTSTHEPRESENTSTUDYHASQUANTIFIEDTHEEXTENTTOWHICHITWOULDBEPOSSIBLEFORTHEGOVERNMENTTOAUGMENTRES

34、OURCESBYCURTAILINGSUCHWELFAREEXPENDITURESASMENTIONEDABOVETHETABLESHOWEDTHEEXTENTOFREALRESOURCEAUGMENTATIONTHATWOULDHAVEBEENPOSSIBLEAFTERTHEYEAR1988,IFTHEGROWTHRATEOFTHECURRENTEXPENDITURESOFTHEGOVERNMENTGOVERNMENTCONSUMPTIONEXPENDITURESSERIESHADBEENREDUCEDTO25PERCENTPERANNUMHALFTHEACTUALRATETHOSEADDI

35、TIONALREALRESOURCESCOULDTHEREFOREHAVEAUGMENTEDGOVERNMENTINVESTMENTINAREASWHEREPRIVATEINVESTMENTISSLOWTOVENTUREINTHISWAY,THECURRENTDEFICITOFTHEGOVERNMENTCOULDHAVEBEENREDUCEDANDANINCREASEINGOVERNMENTINVESTMENTCOULDHAVESTIMULATEDGROWTHANOUTLINEOFTHEINTEGRATEDMACROECONOMETRICANDINPUTOUTPUTMODELDEVELOPED

36、FORTHESRILANKANECONOMYSHOWSCLEARLY,THROUGHHISTORICALSIMULATIONS,THATGOVERNMENTINVESTMENTCOULDPLAYASIGNIFICANTROLEINACCELERATINGECONOMICGROWTHINSRILANKASIMULATIONEXERCISESBASEDONTHEMACROECONOMETRICMODELALSOHIGHLIGHTTHEPOTENTIALOFPRIVATEINVESTMENTANDFDIINGENERATINGECONOMICGROWTHHOWEVER,INCREASINGGOVER

37、NMENTINVESTMENTANDBANKCREDITTOTHEGOVERNMENTARENOTSYNONYMOUSTHESTUDYINDICATESTHATTHELATTERHASLARGELYBEENUSEDTOBRIDGETHEGOVERNMENTBUDGETDEFICITTHATAROSEFROMTHEEXCESSOFCURRENTEXPENDITURESOVERREVENUESINCREASESINBANKCREDITTOTHEGOVERNMENTHAVECAUSEDTHEMONETARYBASETOEXPANDRAPIDLY,CREATINGHIGHINFLATIONINSRIL

38、ANKAAHIGHRATEOFINFLATIONBEGETSAHIGHEXPECTEDRATEOFINFLATIONSUCHINFLATIONARYEXPECTATIONSCOULDERODETHEGROWTHPOTENTIALOFTHEECONOMYTHROUGHITSADVERSEIMPACTONTHESUPPLYSIDETHUS,WHILETHEROLEOFGOVERNMENTINVESTMENTINTHEECONOMYISCRUCIAL,ITISEQUALLYIMPORTANTTOUNDERSTANDTHATBANKCREDITTOTHEGOVERNMENTMAYNOTBETHEBES

39、TWAYTOINCREASEGOVERNMENTINVESTMENTTHEGROWTHRATEOFTHEGDPOFDEVELOPINGCOUNTRIESCANBESUBSTANTIALLYINCREASEDBYENCOURAGINGMARKETBASEDPRIVATESECTORPARTICIPATION,ANDBYSYSTEMATICALLYREDUCINGTHECURRENTDEFICITSINTHEGOVERNMENTBUDGETTORELEASERESOURCESFORINVESTMENTINFOLLOWINGTHISPOLICY,THEGOVERNMENTHASTOPROVIDEAS

40、TRONGPOSITIVEANDCREDIBLESIGNALTOTHEPRIVATESECTORBYREDUCINGITSCURRENTPRIMARYDEFICITS,CURBINGCURRENTACCOUNTEXPENDITURESANDFOCUSINGONINVESTMENTTHEPRESENTPAPERTHEREFOREEMPHASIZESAPOLICYOFAUGMENTINGGROWTHBYPROMOTINGTHECOMPLEMENTARYROLESOFGOVERNMENTANDPRIVATEINVESTMENT,BOTHDOMESTICANDFOREIGN译文政府财政和经济增长以政策

41、的视角看斯里兰卡发展中的经济本文运用了整合的微观经济输入输出模型，旨在分析1975至2000年期间经济增长业绩背景下，发展中国家在经济成长中的财政政策方向。本文的研究核心是快速经济增长情况下政府政策。经验数据表明政府预算赤字并不是对财政收入过度消费的结果。其他现金支出，例如政府转移支付和利息支付，或多或少成为了导致国家增加公共负债的主要原因。政府投资在全部政府开支中所占的比例在逐年减少，这将会成为经济增长中的一个主要障碍。与此同时，政府预算赤字复发会导致国家债务的上涨，赤字货币化会产生通货膨胀的压力。为了遏制这些发展趋势并鼓励经济增长，减少政府预算中的现金赤字是首要任务。国内个人投资，国外直接

42、投资和政府投资应该结合起来成为互补的力量，共同确保国家经济快速增长。ABELANDBERNANKE（2001）研究表明根据经济理论，财政赤字和政府债券挤压着经济的潜在增长。这不是需求约束经济的真正原因。虽然投资可以导致经济增长，但这也不是政府运行赤字来增加投资费用的原因。许多发展中国家希望减少政府在经济领域中的活动，鼓励个体经济领域的发展。本文尝试建立一个系统的模型，它包含了发展中国家的全部财政情况概要，并且用整合的微观经济输入输出模型来解释从政府财政数据分析中得到的结果。增长理论鼓励政府在基础设施领域，教育领域，健康领域和相关领域的投资。高速发展的经济要求经济高效率，在私人投资和政府投资方面

43、都需要鼓励。政府强调在可控制的情况下在两个领域采取果断行动，引进公共债券，迎接挑战。第一个目标是创造一个国家收入比公共债券增长得快，允许国家超负荷债券负担的情形。第二个目标是通过减少预算赤字来减慢好和最终改变公共债券增长。这个终将使公共费用减少同时增加收入。这种调节是不可避免的，而且不得不通过有效的管理保证负担共享是公平的，保证对社会多数的易受伤害的成员不是一种强制的超负荷负担。在不限制经济繁荣条件的改革实施也是必要的。为了经济的快速发展，官方正确的表达了关注目前超额的赤字而不是全部的赤字，因为通过政府在构建基础设施或通过相类似的活动形式的资金费用是有利于提高未来经济潜在的发展而不是减少资金费

44、用。试图通过重建财政的立场来发展经济应该谨慎，而不是通过减少政府在物品和服务购买，不是创造过激需求不足，也不是为了达到既定的GDP财政赤字目标率而减少政府投资。政府消费是经济过度需求的一部分。这一部分的减少会影响资金的利用率，除非在私人领域消费或投资或净出口有相应的增加。虽然非古典经济学家声称在政府采购永久性的减少是导致可支配收入永久性增加和刺激私人消费，但仍没有关于此超前行为看法的具体的证据，甚至是在美国这种发达国家或亚洲如印度这类的发展中国家。在政府税收和非税收收入的不同赤字类型显示了最终公共物品和服务现有的消费的过度性。由于市场缺陷的存在，减少最终消费支出或许不能保证私人消费的相应增长。

45、经济增长的关键是政府投资，作为预算赤字的一部分呈下降趋势。作为目前收入超过目前消费一部分的政府投资同样也是下降趋势。在这种情况下，政府应该试图增加公共投资资源来使人们感到受到鼓舞而参加私人领域。如果任何现有的收入增加超过政府最终消费支出的减少是可行的那么或许政府应增加资源的投资以此来促进经济潜在发展。人们普遍认为非经济政府支出取决于发展经济的宏观管理的诸多问题。我们开始命题，总投资有两部分组成国内和国外。它出现了国内的投资没有根据的加速器类型的机制运行，因为系数滞后，即使在国内生产总值的百分之10级也是没有统计意义的。国家对产品的出口要求并不依赖于国际实际收入，此估计模型忽略了假定通过国际GD

46、P运行的收入效应，因为它的系数是没有统计意义的。整合实际收入和货币经济领域。在微观经济学的次级模型中，我们想要把经济学中的实际收入和货币两方面的因素都考虑进来。然而，消费和投资估计功能都没有针对实际利率显示出有意义的参数。消费。我们给出对消费主要四种类型的界定1，实物，饮料和烟草；2，丝织品，服装和鞋类；3，电力，水资源和气体资源；4，其他制造业产品。我们发现，这四类消费仅仅与可支配GDP紧密地联系。投资此模型定义了两种主要投资支出的类型1，设施建设和土地发展投资；2，机械生产和设备制造投资。主要出口类型被界定为如下几个类型1，其他农业产品；2，服装；3，非金属产品；4，其他制造产品；5，机械

47、生及设备制造产品。进口明细主要进口类型被定义为如下几类1，橡胶制品；2，其他农业产品；3，丝织品；4，加工食品；5，化学制剂及化工制品；6，非金属产品；7，其他制造产品；8，机械及设备制造产品；9，金属矿产。因此，为了稍后在模型中整合货币政策和财政政策，我们采用已经介绍过的信贷媒介变量，即银行对私信贷和银行对政府信贷。政府利息支付和政府对私转移支付是造成预算赤字增长的主要原因。这些政府支付最终通过银行对政府信贷和经济发展中的通货膨胀导致货币的大量制造。我们得出的主要结论是个人通过银行对私信贷和FDI的投资与政府通过银行对公信贷的投资是互补的。高通货膨胀率导致高通胀率预期。此种高通胀预期会通过其

48、对供应方的不利影响降低潜在的经济增长。因此，虽然政府投资在经济发展中的角色十分关键，但明白银行对政府信贷也许并不是增长政府投资最好的方式也是十分重要的。政府的政策文件斯里兰卡2002依赖私人部门的积极性增加投资,加快经济的增长。根据政府政策，政府的职能应该是创造一个环境有利于民间投资的经济。我们的目的是要发现政府是否能产生资源,此外,由于私人的投资,相信会吸引、支持和补充该民间投资的经济。为此,我们使用斯里兰卡中央银行2003年年报数据做了一个简单的实验。政府的观点的恰当的表达了预算赤字而不是全部赤字,因为政府进行基础设施建设的形式或通过类似的活动的资本支出,提高未来发展潜力,而不是减少。然而

49、,公共债务的含义中,有一个基本的区分内部和外部的债务。因此，假如我们把债务人和债权人放在相同的立足点上它没有承担任何债务负担。一个外债,另一方面,对国民经济和关系到它所资信国际捐赠人绝对是一个净负担。增加政府预算赤字会增加现有公共债务。在将来如果政府提高税率会抵消这笔债务,但效率低下。为了重新得到斯里兰卡斯里兰卡2002,政府正在被提议的建筑“世界级的收入权威”成立。这篇论文，在斯里兰卡经济增长的背景下，我们分析了有关政府的财政赤字和越来越多的公共债务中的两个问题。在分析了从1975年到2000年政府预算的数据时,学者们发现了所有基本项目通货的顺差。政府目前购买的物品与劳务没有超出它的整体税收和非税收的物品。然而,经常支出项目总额达到了政府部门的税收和非税收的其它收入。政府投资支出在预算赤字的比率也低。这使作者得出这样的结论在经济中，政府的财政转移支付制度及其利息在过去的债务的两个主要原因,导致了预算赤字累计的滚雪球式的国债。持续的内部种族冲突也把重担落在了政府身上。为了扭转这一趋势,政府的政策文件恢复斯里兰卡斯里兰卡,2002，提出组成的一种行动计划减少政府支出，以及提高了收入通过“世界级的收入局”。研究发现,在提议的税收制度下，整体税收和基建政府收入过去的趋势是接近预期政策文件的收入计划。因此，只有两个地区，在那些地区政府确实有空间