第五个康德拉季耶夫经济周期的纺织服装行业：以香港为例【外文翻译】.doc

1、本科毕业论文外文翻译出处WORLDDEVELOPMENT2005,50847872作者BECKYPYLOOTHETEXTILEANDCLOTHINGINDUSTRIESUNDERTHEFIFTHKONDRATIEFFWAVESOMEINSIGHTSFROMTHECASEOFHONGKONGTHEUNIVERSITYOFHONGKONG,POKFULAM,HONGKONGSUMMARYTHISPAPERPROPOSESTHATTHEWORLDSTEXTILEANDCLOTHINGINDUSTRIESHAVEBECOMEINCREASINGVERTICALLYDISINTEGRATEDWITHAF

2、EWFLEXIBLEPRODUCTIONREGIONSTHE“CREAM”PORTIONENGAGINGINCREATIVE,INNOVATIVE,DYNAMICANDHIGHVALUEADDEDACTIVITIES,ANDANEXPANDINGNUMBERANDSPATIALEXTENTOFREGIONSTHE“CAKE”PORTIONTAKINGPARTINLOWVALUEADDEDACTIVITIESINBETWEENISAN“ARTIFICIAL”LAYERPROTECTEDBYTHEINTERNATIONALREGULATORYFRAMEWORKTHISLAYERHASCHARACT

3、ERISTICSOFBOTHTHE“CREAM”AND“CAKE”LAYERSONTHEONEHAND,THELABORFORCEINTHISLAYERSUFFERSFROMLOWJOBMOBILITYANDLOWPAIDBLUECOLLARWORKOFTHE“CAKEPORTION”ANDISDOMINATEDBYFEMALESEMISKILLEDWORKERSONTHEOTHERHAND,INDUSTRIALISTSANDGOVERNMENTSINTHISLAYERENJOYTHEPROFITSANDHIGHEXPORTVALUESOFTHE“CREAM”PORTIONUNDERTHEFI

4、FTHKONDRATIEFFWAVE,THETEXTILEANDCLOTHINGINDUSTRIESHAVEBECOMEINCREASINGLYCOORDINATEDANDCONTROLLEDBYATHINNER“CREAM“LAYEROVERTIME,REGIONSINTHE“CAKE”PORTIONWILLFINDITINCREASINGLYDIFFICULTTOTRANSFORMTHEMSELVESINTO“CREAM”BECAUSEOFDEEPSEATEDSTRUCTURALANDGEOGRAPHICDIFFERENCESKEYWORDSFIFTHKONDRATIEFFWAVE,NEW

5、INTERNATIONALDIVISIONOFLABOR,FLEXIBLEPRODUCTION,VERTICALDISINTEGRATION,HONGKONG,MULTIFIBREAGREEMENT1INTRODUCTIONTHETEXTILEANDCLOTHINGINDUSTRIESEMERGEDASTHEINNOVATIVEANDHIGHTECHINDUSTRIESINTHEFIRSTINDUSTRIALREVOLUTIONOFTHE1770SASTHECAPITALISTSYSTEMEVOLVES,NEWWAVESOFHIGHTECHINDUSTRIESDEVELOPTORESOLVEP

6、ROBLEMSOFSTAGNATIONINHERENTINTHEGLOBALCAPITALISTSYSTEMDICKEN,1998HALL,1985SCOTT,1998THE“POLES”OFINDUSTRIALSPACECONTINUETOSHIFTASTHETECHNOINDUSTRIALPARADIGMCHANGESBECAUSEEACHLONGWAVETYPICALLYCALLSFORANEWGEOGRAPHYHALL,1985FOLLOWINGTHECONCEPTUALIZATIONOFTHERUSSIANECONOMISTNIKOLAIKONDRATIEFFIN1924,THESE

7、LONGWAVESOFTHECAPITALISTSYSTEMARECOMMONLYTERMEDTHEKONDRATIEFFLONGWAVESKWAVESMARKEDBYPERIODSOFRELATIVELYRAPIDEXPANSIONFOLLOWEDBYSLUGGISHGROWTHOREVENSTAGNATIONTHESEEXPANSIONANDSTAGNATIONPHASESARECALLEDAANDBPHASES,RESPECTIVELYBOSWELLKNOXBOSWELLFREEMANHALL,1985KNOXFREEMANKNOXMURRAY,1999SCOTT,1998STORPER

8、,1992WILLIAMSON,1981MOREOVER,MUCHATTENTIONHASBEENPLACEDONTHEQUESTIONSOF“WHERE,“”HOW,“AND”WHY“INTHEEMERGENCEOFNEWREGIONSOFTECHNOLOGICALINNOVATIONSSUCHASTHESILICONVALLEYCASTELLSMALMBERG,SOLVELL,FROBEL,HEINRICHS,SITSITTEXTILEINDUSTRIALCOMMITTEE,1968BEYONDTHESEFIVEBROADCATEGORIES,THEREAREOVERHUNDREDSOFD

9、ETAILEDJOBTITLESVOCATIONALTRAININGCOUNCIL,1999BYLOOKINGATTHEBROADCATEGORIES,ONEMAYCLASSIFYTHOSEINTHETECHNOLOGIST,TECHNICIANANDCRAFTSMANGROUPSTOBETECHNICAL/SKILLEDJOBSTHESEJOBSINCLUDEMANAGERS,DESIGNERS,PHOTOGRAPHERS,SUPERVISORSOFDEPARTMENT,MERCHANDISERS,MACHINEMECHANICSANDINSTRUCTORSTHEREMAININGGROUP

10、SARESEMISKILLEDANDUNSKILLEDJOBSTHESEINCLUDECUTTERS,OPERATORSOFSEWINGANDKNITTINGMACHINE,PRESSERSANDGENERALWORKERSANOTHERMOSTOBVIOUSSTRUCTURALCHANGEISTHATWORKERSINTHEOPERATIVECATEGORYWERETHEMOSTSEVERELYAFFECTEDTABLE1ALISTSTHEIDEGREE/HIGHERDIPLOMA,IIDIPLOMA,FORM36,HIGHERCERTIFICATE,CERTIFICATEANDVOCATI

11、ONALTRAININGSAND,IIIBELOWFORM3ANDPRIMARYEDUCATIONINCLUDINGILLITERATETABLE2SUMMARIZESTHECHANGINGEXPECTATIONSOFTHETEXTILEANDCLOTHINGEMPLOYERSINHONGKONGFIRST,ITISCLEARTHATTHEIREXPECTATIONSHAVERISENDESPITETHEFACTTHATJOBSAVAILABLEHAVENOTBEENUPGRADEDIN1989,NOEMPLOYERSINTHETEXTILEANDCLOTHINGINDUSTRIESPREFE

12、RREDEMPLOYEESWITHANEDUCATIONBELOWFORM3THISHASIMPORTANTIMPLICATIONSBECAUSEHONGKONGHASINTRODUCEDNINEYEARCOMPULSORYEDUCATIONIN1973THOSEHAVINGEDUCATIONLEVELBELOWFORM3WEREMOSTLYOLDERWORKERSANDNEWIMMIGRANTSINTHE1960S,THETEXTILEANDCLOTHINGINDUSTRIESPLAYEDADOMINANTROLEINABSORBINGTHELARGEINFLUXOFNEWIMMIGRANT

13、STOHONGKONG,MANYOFWHOMDIDNOTHAVEMUCHEDUCATIONFROBELETAL,1980MOREIMPORTANT,THESEINDUSTRIESPROVIDEDWORKINGOPPORTUNITIESFORWOMEN,ESPECIALLYHOUSEWIVES,TOSUPPLEMENTMEAGERFAMILYINCOMEBYWORKINGPARTTIMEORASOUTWORKERSINTHECLOTHINGSECTORANDBEPAIDATAPIECERATEORONADAILYBASISIN1999,FORM3ORABOVEREPRESENTED454AND7

14、92OFTHEPREFERREDEDUCATIONALLEVELAMONGEMPLOYERSINTHETEXTILEANDCLOTHINGINDUSTRIES,RESPECTIVELYINVIEWOFTHEPREVIOUSANALYSISBYJOBCHARACTERISTICS,ITAPPEARSTHATFORTHESAMETYPEOFJOB,EMPLOYERSNOWEXPECTHIGHEREDUCATIONALLEVELSFROMEMPLOYEESETHEGENDERISSUEFINALLY,HAVEMENANDWOMENBEENAFFECTEDDIFFERENTLYTABLE3PRESEN

15、TSTHERATIOOFMENANDWOMENWORKERSINTHETEXTILEANDCLOTHINGINDUSTRIESIN1969,THETEXTILEINDUSTRYHADAMOREORLESSBALANCEDSEXRATIOWOMENREPRESENTED462OFTHELABORFORCE,BUT,FEMALELABORHASDECLINEDOVERTIMEIN1999,670OFTHEEMPLOYEESINTHETEXTILEINDUSTRYWEREMENGENERALLY,ONEEXPECTSTHECLOTHINGINDUSTRYTOBEANALEDOMINATEDINDUS

16、TRYBECAUSEOFTHEHIGHNUMBEROFOPERATIVEJOBS,WHICHESSENTIALLYMEANSWORKINGWITHSEWINGMACHINESIN1969,WOMENHAD673OFALLJOBSINTHISINDUSTRYBY1999,WOMENACCOUNTEDFOR751OFTHELABORFORCEASTHEINDUSTRYDECLINED,ITBECAMEINCREASINGLYAFEMALEDOMINATEDINDUSTRYDOESTHISMEANTHATWOMENHAVEFAREDBETTERINTHETRANSITIONBEFOREWECOMET

17、OTHISCONCLUSION,WEHAVETOEXAMINEMORECLOSELYTHENATUREOFJOBSPROVIDEDFIGURE4SHOWSTHESHAREOFWOMENEMPLOYEESINTHETEXTILEINDUSTRYBYTHEFIVEJOBCATEGORIESTHEXSCALEISFROM0TO100SOTHATTHERELATIVEIMPORTANCEOFMENANDWOMENEMPLOYMENTINEACHCATEGORYCANBEEASILYIDENTIFIEDIN1969,ABOUTHALFOFTHEUNSKILLED444ANDOPERATIVE550JOB

18、SWERETAKENBYWOMENBUT,MENREPRESENTMORETHAN90OFTHEJOBSWHENONEMOVESTOTHEMORESKILLEDJOBSOFCRAFTSMAN930ANDTECHNICIAN901OVERTIME,ASMOREFEMALESHAVEACCESSTOHIGHEREDUCATION,DIDTHEPICTURECHANGEIN1979,THEPATTERNREMAINEDESSENTIALLYTHESAMEIN1989,MENDOMINATEDATALLLEVELS,ESPECIALLYATHIGHERLEVELSNOTABLY,MENREPRESEN

19、TED992OFALLTECHNOLOGISTSINTHETEXTILEINDUSTRYIN1999,WOMENACCOUNTEDFORABOUT40OFTHEOPERATIVE401ANDUNSKILLED453JOBSASONEMOVESTOTHEMORESKILLEDANDBETTERPAIDJOBCATEGORIES,THEREWEREPROGRESSIVELYFEWERWOMENANDTHEBREAKWASVERYSHARPMOVINGFROMTHESEMISKILLEDANDUNSKILLEDTHATIS,OPERATIVEANDUNSKILLEDTOTHESKILLEDTHATI

20、S,CRAFTSMAN,TECHNICIANANDTECHNOLOGISTCATEGORIESIN1999,WOMENONLYACCOUNTEDFOR48OFTECHNOLOGISTS,92OFTECHNICIANSAND121OFCRAFTSMENDESPITETHATFACTTHAT330OFALLWORKERSINTHEINDUSTRYWEREWOMENTABLE3HOWABOUTTHECLOTHINGINDUSTRY,WHICHHASALWAYSBEENAMALEDOMINATEDINDUSTRYHAVEWOMENPERFORMEDEQUALLYWELLINALLCATEGORIESO

21、RHASTHEFEMALELABORFORCEBEENCONCENTRATEDINLOWERLEVELJOBSONLYFIGURE5SHOWSTHESITUATIONFORTHECLOTHINGINDUSTRYTHECONCENTRATIONOFWOMENATLOWERLEVELJOBSISAGAINOBVIOUSIN1969,760AND706OFTHEUNSKILLEDANDOPERATIVEJOBSWEREFILLEDBYWOMEN,RESPECTIVELYINCONTRAST,ONLY33AND213OFCRAFTSMENANDTECHNICIANSWEREWOMENIN1979,FE

22、MALESDOMINATEDATTHEUNSKILLED644ANDOPERATIVE795LEVELSTHESHAREOFWOMENATTHECRAFTSMANLEVELINCREASEDCONSIDERABLYTO406AMAJORREASONWASTHATCRAFTSMENINTHECLOTHINGINDUSTRYINCLUDEDLEADERSOFTHEOPERATIVEWORKERSONTHESEWINGMACHINEHONGKONGTRAININGCOUNCIL,1979BIN1989,WOMENFORTHEFIRSTTIMEACCOUNTEDFORMORETHAN50563OFTH

23、ECRAFTSMANJOBS,WHILE758OFTECHNOLOGISTSWEREMENIN1999,THEDOMINATIONOFFEMALESATLOWERLEVELJOBSWASNOTABLEWITHNEARLY90878OFTHEOPERATIVELEVELJOBSTAKENBYWOMENATHIGHERLEVELS,WOMENACCOUNTEDFORPROGRESSIVELYLOWERPERCENTAGESTHESITUATIONIN1999IMPROVEDWITH482OFTHETECHNICIANSASWOMENBUT,IFONECONSIDERSTHATWOMENREPRES

24、ENTED751OFTHELABORFORCEINTHEENTIREINDUSTRYIN1999TABLE3WHILEMENREPRESENTED724OFTECHNOLOGISTS,ITISCLEARTHATTHEGENDERIMBALANCEFORSKILLEDJOBSHASNOTBEENVERYDIFFERENTFROMTHETEXTILEINDUSTRYFORBOTHTHETEXTILEANDCLOTHINGINDUSTRIES,THESEXRATIOBETWEENMENANDWOMENRAISESWITHINCREASINGSKILLLEVELSWOMENWERESTUCKINPOO

25、RLYPAIDJOBSTHATIMPARTFEWSKILLSANDPROVIDEFEWPROMOTIONALOPPORTUNITIESACOMMONLYACCEPTEDTHEORY/RATIONALETHATEXPLAINSORDRIVESTHECHANGINGGLOBALCAPITALISTECONOMYISTHENEWINTERNATIONALDIVISIONOFLABORNIDLGIVENTHELABORINTENSIVENATUREOFTHETEXTILEANDCLOTHINGINDUSTRIES,FACTORIESMOVECONTINUOUSLYASINDUSTRIALISTSSEA

26、RCHFORAREASOFLOWERWAGESAPPELBAUM,SMITH,CHRISTERSONDICKEN,1998FROBELETAL,1980THETEXTILEINDUSTRY,BEINGMORECAPITALINTENSIVE,HASBEENSLOWERTOREACTTOTHIS“GLOBALSHIFT”BUTITISCLEARTHATMOREDEVELOPEDCOUNTRIESARENOWHAVINGSUBSTANTIALTRADEDEFICITSEVENINTEXTILESDICKEN,1998,P288THELARGESCALERELOCATIONOFHONGKONGIND

27、USTRIALISTSTOSOUTHCHINAAFTERTHEOPENPOLICYTESTIFIEDTOSUCHGLOBALSHIFT”LEUNG,1993SITSMARTSITCHRISTERSONFROBELETAL,1980PIORESCHOENBERGER,1988SITDICKERSON,1999INTHECASEOFHONGKONG,THEOPENPOLICYPROVIDEDANEXCELLENTOPPORTUNITYFORHONGKONGINDUSTRIALISTSTOTAPETHEABUNDANTCHEAPLABORINMAINLANDCHINAUNDERTHENIDLTHEO

28、RY,STRUCTURALCHANGESHAPPENINGINHONGKONGANDTHECONSEQUENCESONITSLABORFORCEMAYBEINTERPRETEDASANATURALANDINEVITABLECOURSEOFECONOMICTRANSITIONTHETEXTILEANDCLOTHINGINDUSTRIESARESUNSETINDUSTRIESINTHEFIFTHKWAVEANDTHESEINDUSTRIESHAVEALREADYENTEREDTHEMATURESTAGEOFTHEPRODUCTLIFECYCLEDICKEN,1998GEOGRAPHICALLY,T

29、HEYWOULDNATURALLYRELOCATEFROMHIGHTOLOWWAGEECONOMIESBECKYPYLOOTHETEXTILEANDCLOTHINGINDUSTRIESUNDERTHEFIFTHKONDRATIEFFWAVESOMEINSIGHTSFROMTHECASEOFHONGKONGJWORLDDEVELOPMENT2005,50847872译文第五个康德拉季耶夫经济周期的纺织服装行业以香港为例摘要文中提出，世界的纺织和服装工业已随着一些灵活的生产地区（奶油部分）具有创造性；创新，充满活力和高增加值活动的出现和大量地区（蛋糕部分）参与到低价值的增值活动而持续的进行垂直分解

30、。这中间是由国际监管框架构成的保护层。这一层同时具有“奶油”和“蛋糕”两个层面的特色。一方面，在这一层的劳动力具有低工作流动性，是一群低工资蓝领，并以女性为主的半熟练工人。另一方面，工业和政府在这一层享受利润和奶油部分的高技术产品出口的价值。根据康德拉季耶夫第五个经济周期，纺织和服装行业对于控制更薄的奶油层已变得越来越协调。随着时间的推移，由于结构和地理的不同，蛋糕部分地区会发现越来越难以转化为奶油层。关键词第五个经济周期，新国际劳动分工，灵活的生产，垂直瓦解，香港，复型纤维协议一、介绍最早的纺织服装业于17世纪80年代的第一次工业革命作为创新的高科技行业出现的。作为资本主义制度发展过程新一波

31、的高科技产业为解决全球资本主义制度固有的经济停滞问题而发展起来。由于每一个较长的具有代表性的波动都需要新的地理结构，因而“两极”的产业空间继续转变为有效联结范式。根据俄罗斯经济学家NIKOLAIKONDRATIEFF在1924年对经济俄国经济的概念化，这些长期资本主义制度的波浪一般称为KONDRATIEFF长波KWAVES以相对快速扩张时期开始后,紧随其后的是缓慢增长甚至停滞不前。这些扩展和停滞阶段分别叫做A阶段和B阶段。尽管“KWAVE”背后的准确性和制度性的持续争论，但大家都达有一个共识即资本主义制度进行着经济繁荣与萧条的长周期模式。地理学家BOSCHMA和KNAAP在1999年对高新技术

32、的转变和空间的聚集做出了解释，如纺织服装业在18世纪通过使用窗户区位机会的概念从传统的经济中心走出来。空间逻辑的不连续性及其作为创新的必要能力和创新产业中固有的生产要素将会为不相干的传统核心地区提供良好的区位条件和生产。用HALL1985年的术语,全球经济正处于第五个K波中。过渡期发生在20世纪70年代,在第五个K波下的新的地理情况，交易费用,包括社会嵌入,集群基础发展和网络的方法已被用来解释公司和区域水平的产业集群。此外,新出现的地区的技术创新关于“哪里”、“如何”和“为何”问题已引起广泛的关注放，如硅谷CASTELLSMALMBERG,SOLVELLSITDICKERSON,1999。在香

33、港，开放政策的情况提供了一个香港工业极好的机会，很好的利用了中国内地丰富的廉价劳动力。根据NIDL理论，结构变化发生在香港，其劳动的后果部分可能被解释为一种自然（和不可避免的）经济转型过程中。纺织服装行业在第五个经济周期中成为夕阳行业，这些行业已进入产品生命周期的成熟阶段。从地理上看，他们会从高工资经济体向低工资经济体迁往。由于广泛记载了香港工业北移到庞大的中国内地ENG,1997SITWONG,1989，人们可能预期在1979年开放政策将是香港工业发展的重要转折点。然而，图1却显示了另外三个转折点。其一是1975年第一季度，这是香港的工业劳动力就业增加的标志。在整个70年代末香港工业稳步发展。在1975年第一季度，纺织品数量，服装和所有制造业员工人数分别是88209，169665和522563分。在1979年开放的政策并没有立即产生向下的压力。截至1979年底，纺织和服装工业仍分别雇用工人的100825和277270。1981年第二季是第二个转折点，制造业的就业趋于平缓。在此期间，纺织服装业出现缓慢下降。最后的转折点是1990年第一季度。它标志着香港纺织服装和制造业的就业人数快速直线下降。换言之，80年代以来纺织服装业的就业机会数量缓慢下降，20世纪90年代这种趋势迅速加剧。