能源使用，技术进步和生产力增长：一个经济问题调查【外文翻译】.doc

1、本科毕业论文外文翻译外文题目ENERGYUSE,TECHNICALPROGRESSANDPRODUCTIVITYGROWTHASURVEYOFECONOMICISSUES出处THEJOURNALOFPRODUCTIVITYANALYSIS,199026783作者ERNSTRBERNDT原文ABSTRACTINTHISPAPERISURVEYANDINTERPRETSEVERALOFTHEMOSTIMPORTANTASPECTSUNDERLYINGRELATIONSHIPSAMONGTECHNICALPROGRESS,PRODUCTIVITYGROWTH,ANDENERGYUSE,VIEWEDF

2、ROMTHEVANTAGEOFANECONOMISTTHEFIRSTPORTIONOFTHEPAPERPROVIDESANONECONOMISTWITHANONTECHNICALSUMMARYOFTHEECONOMICTHEORYOFCOSTANDPRODUCTION,ANDDEFINESSINGLEFACTORANDMULTIFACTORPRODUCTIVITYGROWTHINTHESECONDHALFOFTHEPAPER,FOUREXAMPLESAREPRESENTEDTHATHIGHLIGHTTHESPECIALROLEOFENERGYCONSUMPTIONININDUCINGANDRE

3、FLECTINGTHEEFFECTSOFTECHNICALPROGRESSANDPRODUCTIVITYGROWTHACOMMONTHEMEINTHEFOUREXAMPLESISTHATTHECONCEPTSOFEMBODIMENT,DIFFUSIONANDLEARNINGARECRITICALTOUNDERSTANDINGTHEFORCESLINKINGENERGYUSAGE,TECHNICALPROGRESSANDPRODUCTIVITYGROWTH1、INTRODUCTIONTHERELATIONSHIPSAMONGTECHNICALPROGRESS,PRODUCTIVITYGROWTH

4、ANDENERGYUSEARENOTONLYEXTREMELYIMPORTANT,BUTTHEYAREALSOEXCEEDINGLYCOMPLEXITISNOTSURPRISING,THEREFORE,THATTHESEINTERACTIONSCANBEVIEWEDINSIGHTFULLYFROMANUMBEROFDIFFERINGVANTAGESINTHISARTICLEISURVEYTHEEXISTINGLITERATURE,ASVIEWEDBYANECONOMISTTHEOUTLINEIFOLLOWISASFOLLOWSTHEFIRSTHALFOFTHEARTICLESURVEYSTHE

5、GENERALECONOMICLITERATURELINKINGTECHNICALPROGRESSTOREALIZEDGAINSINPRODUCTIVITYGROWTHTHESECONDHALFOFTHESURVEYFOCUSESINPARTICULARONTHEIMPORTANTROLEOFENERGYINLINKINGTECHNICALPROGRESSTOPRODUCTIVITYGROWTHMORESPECIFICALLY,INSECTION2ICONSIDERTHEECONOMICLITERATURERELATINGTECHNICALPROGRESSTOVARIOUSTYPESOFPRO

6、DUCTIVITYGROWTH,SUMMARIZETHEECONOMICFRAMEWORKOFCOSTANDPRODUCTION,ANDDISTINGUISHEMBODIEDANDDISEMBODIEDTECHNICALPROGRESSTHISSECTIONALSOCONTAINSAVERYBRIEFOVERVIEWONPRINCIPALEMPIRICALFINDINGSTODATETHENINSECTION3INARROWMYFOCUSANDEXAMINEHOWENERGYCONSUMPTIONPATTERNSSIMULTANEOUSLYAFFECTANDAREAFFECTEDBYTECHN

7、ICALPROGRESSANDPRODUCTIVITYGROWTHTHISSECTIONCONTAINSANOVERVIEWOFAGREATDEALOFLITERATURE,BOTHCLASSICANDRECENTFINALLY,INSECTION4IPRESENTCONCLUDINGREMARKSANDOBSERVATIONSSINCETHISSURVEYFOCUSESONENERGYISSUES,IWILLOFCOURSEOVERVIEWTHEEXISTINGLITERATUREONTHERELATIONSHIPBETWEENENERGYPRICESHOCKSANDTHE19731974P

8、RODUCTIVITYGROWTHSLOWDOWNANUMBEROFINTERESTINGEXPLANATIONSFORTHISSLOWDOWNHAVEBEENOFFEREDTHATAREESSENTIALLYUNRELATEDTOENERGYISSUESEG,USGOVERNMENTMONETARYANDFISCALPOLICYIN19731975ALLEGEDLYWASNOTACCOMMODATING,BUTDUETOSPACECONSTRAINTS,IWILLNOTDISCUSSTHEMHERE2RELATIONSHIPSAMONGTECHNICALPROGRESSANDPRODUCTI

9、VITYGROWTHANECONOMICFRAMEWORKEVERSINCETHEPIONEERINGRESEARCHOFJANTINBERGEN1942ANDROBERTMSOLOW1957,THERELATIONSHIPSAMONGTECHNICALPROGRESSANDPRODUCTIVITYGROWTHHAVEBEENENVISAGEDWITHINTHEECONOMICTHEORYOFCOSTANDPRODUCTIONINTHENEXTFEWPARAGRAPHS,THEREFORE,IPRESENTANDSUMMARIZETHESETHEORETICALFOUNDATIONS21COS

10、TANDPRODUCTIONFUNCTIONSDEFINEASETOFENGINEERINGRELATIONSHIPSAMONGINPUTSANDOUTPUTASTHEPRODUCTIONFUNCTION,WHICHINDICATESTHEMAXIMUMPOSSIBLEFLOWOFOUTPUTATTAINABLEDENOTED“IVENALTERNATIVEQUANTITYFLOWSOFTHENINPUTSDENOTEDX1,X2XNANDTHESTATEOFTECHNICALKNOWLEDGEDENOTEDAWRITETHISPRODUCTIONFUNCTIONINIMPLICITFORMA

11、SYFXL,X2XNA1AUSEFULWAYOFVIEWINGTHEPRODUCTIONFUNCTIONRELATIONSHIPISTOTHINKOFITASABOOKWHOSEPAGESCONTAINALTERNATIVEBLUEPRINTDESIGNSFORCOMBININGINPUTSTOPRODUCETHEOUTPUTLEVELYOBVIOUSLY,THEPRODUCTIONFUNCTIONANDTHEBOOKOFBLUEPRINTSMUSTBECONSISTENTWITHLAWSOFNATUREANDOTHERENGINEERINGRELATIONSHIPSWHILELAWSOFNA

12、TUREAREBYDEFINITIONSTABLEANDDONOTCHANGEOVERTIME,OURUNDERSTANDINGANDDISCOVERYOFTHESELAWS,ASWELLASOURABILITYTOEXPLOITTECHNOLOGICALPOSSIBILITIES,HASIMPROVEDWITHTIMEONEWAYOFACCOUNTINGFORSUCHADVANCESINTHESTATEOFTECHNICALKNOWLEDGE,THEREFORE,ISTOTHINKOFTHEMASADDINGNEWPAGESTOTHEBOOKOFBLUEPRINTSFORTHISREASON

13、,THEVARIABLEAISINCLUDEDINTHEPRODUCTIONFUNCTION1ITISOFTENCONVENIENTTOSTRUCTURETHERELATIONSHIPSAMONGTECHNICALPROGESSANDPRODUCTIVITYGROWTHINTERMSOFTHEDUALCOSTFUNCTIONACOSTFUNCTIONINDICATESTHEMINIMUMPOSSIBLETOTALCOSTCOFPRODUCINGAGIVENLEVELOFOUTPUT,GIVENPRICESOFTHENINPUTSDENOTEDP1,P2PNANDTHESTATEOFTECHNI

14、CALKNOWLEDGEAWRITETHECOSTFUNCTIONASCGP1,P2PNYA2OBVIOUSLY,THEFORMOFTHEDUALCOSTFUNCTIONGIN2MUSTREFLECTTHEPARAMETERSOFTECHNOLOGYEMBODIEDINTHEPRODUCTIONFUNCTIONFOF1MOREOVER,ITISIMPORTANTTONOTETHATADVANCESINTECHNICALKNOWLEDGETHATSHIFTOUTWARDTHEPRODUCTIONFUNCTION,SHIFTDOWNWARDTHEDUALCOSTFUNCTION22FACTORSP

15、ECIFICANDMULTIFACTORPRODUCTIVITYGROWTHEARLYINTHISCENTURYWHENAGRICULTUREPLAYEDAMUCHLARGERROLEINTHEECONOMYTHANITDOESININDUSTRIALIZEDECONOMIESTODAY,ANALYSTSTYPICALLYIDENTIFIEDTHEWORDPRODUCTIVITYWITHAVERAGEYIELDPERACRE,THATIS,Y/XI,WHEREYWASYIELDPERYEARANDXIWASTHENUMBEROFACRESTHISFOCUSINAGRICULTURALECONO

16、MICSONYIELDPERACREISBUTONEEXAMPLEOFFACTORSPECIFICPRODUCTIVITYANOTHEREXAMPLEOFFACTORSPECIFICPRODUCTIVITY,NAMELY,AVERAGELABORPRODUCTIVITY,ISMORECOMMONTODAYTHANISYIELDPERACREAVERAGELABORPRODUCTIVITYISDEFINEDASY/LOUTPUTDIVIDEDBYLABORINPUTWHERELABORINPUTISTYPICALLYMEASUREDASHOURSATWORKONAVERAGESINCEWORLD

17、WAR,INBOTHTHEEUROPEANANDNORTHAMERICANECONOMIES,AVERAGELABORPRODUCTIVITYINTHEMANUFACTURINGSECTORHASGROWNABOUT2PERYEARINJAPANTHEGROWTHRATEINLABORPRODUCTIVITYOVERTHELASTTWODECADESHASAVERAGEDAT5PERYEARINCREASESINAVERAGELABORPRODUCTIVITYARETYPICALLYINTERPRETEDASBEINGDUETOINCREASESINCAPITALPERHOURATWORKCA

18、PITALDEEPENING,SCALEECONOMIES,AND/ORADVANCESINTHESTATEOFTECHNICALKNOWLEDGESUCHAS,PERHAPS,LEARNINGWHICHOCCURSAFTERLABORINTENSIVETASKSAREPERFORMEDREPETITIVELYAFINALEXAMPLEOFFACTORSPECIFICPRODUCTIVITYOFSPECIALRELEVANCEHERE,COMMONLYKNOWNASAVERAGEENERGYPRODUCTIVITY,ISDEFINEDASOUTPUTDIVIDEDBYENERGYINPUT,W

19、HERETHELATTERCANBEMEASUREDINANUMBEROFWAYSSUCHAS,FOREXAMPLE,TONEQUIVALENTSOFCOALORBRITISHTHERMALUNITSFROMTHEENDOFWORLDWARUNTILTHEEARLY1970S,INMANYECONOMIESAVERAGEENERGYPRODUCTIVITYGREWATABOUT1/2PERYEAR,REFLECTINGINPARTADVANCESINTHESTATEOFKNOWLEDGEAFTEROPECI19731974ANDESPECIALLYFOLLOWINGOPEC19791980,A

20、VERAGEENERGYPRODUCTIVITYINCREASEDMORERAPIDLY,DUEINLARGEPARTTOTHEREPLACEMENTOFENERGYINEFFICIENTCAPITALEQUIPMENTWITHMOREENERGYEFFICIENTDESIGNSTHESEAREBUTTHREEEXAMPLESOFFACTORSPECIFICPRODUCTIVITYGROWTHMEASURESONECOULD,OFCOURSE,THINKOFOTHERINPUTSANDTHENCOMPUTETHEIRAVERAGEPRODUCTIVITYGROWTHRATESRATHERTHA

21、NDOINGTHAT,HOWEVER,IBELIEVEITISMOREUSEFULTOCONSIDERTHEDETERMINANTSAFFECTINGGROWTHRATESOFFACTORSPECIFICPRODUCTIVITIESBEGINBYSIMPLYDIVIDINGBOTHSIDESOFTHEPRODUCTIONFUNCTION1BYXI,THEREBYOBTAININGY/XIFX1,X2,XNA/XI,3WHICHINDICATESTHATGROWTHINFACTORSPECIFICPRODUCTIVITYFORTHEITHINPUTGENERALLYDEPENDSONTHELEV

22、ELSOFALLNINPUTS,ASWELLASADVANCESINTHESTATEOFTECHNICALKNOWLEDGEALTERNATIVELY,ASLONGASFIRMSMINIMIZECOSTS,ONECANEMPLOYTHECOSTFUNCTIONNOTIONANDOBTAINOPTIMALCOSTMINIMIZINGINPUTOUTPUTCOEFFICIENTSFOREACHOFTHENINPUTSINTOPRODUCTION,INVERTTHEMANDOBTAINFACTORSPECIFICPRODUCTIVITYMEASURESASY/XIHP1,P2,PNYA4EQUATI

23、ON4HIGHLIGHTSTHEFACTTHATFACTORSPECIFICPRODUCTIVITYMEASURESAREDEPENDENTON,INTERALIA,THEPRICESOFTHENINPUTSTHISDEPENDENCEISCLOSELYRELATEDTOTHENOTIONOFPRICEELASTICITYOFDEMANDINPARTICULAR,CONSIDERTHEFOLLOWINGEXPERIMENTSUPPOSETHEPRICEOFTHEJTHINPUTCHANGES,ALLOTHERINPUTPRICESREMAINFIXED,WHILETHESTATEOFTECHN

24、OLOGYAANDTHELEVELOFOUTPUTYALSOREMAINFIXEDBYHOWMUCHDOESTHEOPTIMALCOSTMINIMIZINGDEMANDFORTHEITHINPUTCHANGETHISPRICERESPONSIVENESSOFDEMANDFORINPUTIISCALLEDTHEPRICEELASTICITYOFDEMAND,ANDISTYPICALLYFORMULATEDINLOGARITHMICTERMSAS5NOWDEFINETHEAVERAGEPRODUCTIVITYELASTICITYIJASTHERESPONSEINTHEAVERAGEPRODUCTI

25、VITYOFTHEITHINPUTDUETOACHANGEINTHEPRICEOFTHEJTHINPUT,WHEREALLOTHERINPUTPRICES,THESTATEOFTECHNOLOGYANDTHELEVELOFOUTPUTAREFIXED,THATIS,6ONECANEASILYSHOWTHATTHEAVERAGEPRODUCTIVITYELASTICITYIJISSIMPLYTHENEGATIVEOFTHEPRICEELASTICITYIJ,THATIS,IJIJCONSIDER,FOREXAMPLE,THEFACTTHATANUMBEROFECONOMETRICSTUDIESH

26、AVESHOWNTHATINMANYMANUFACTURINGPROCESSES,ENERGYANDLABORARESUBSTITUTABLEINPUTSASTHEPRICEOFLABORINCREASES,CETERISPARIBUS,FIRMSSUBSTITUTEAWAYFROMLABORANDTOWARDSENERGYTHISIMPLIESTHATTHEPRICEELASTICITYEL0WHEREEISENERGYANDLISLABORTHISENERGYLABORSUBSTITUTABILITYALSOIMPLIESTHATTHEAVERAGEENERGYPRODUCTIVITYEL

27、ASTICITYWITHRESPECTTOLABORISNEGATIVE,THATIS,EL0（其中E是能源，L是劳动力）。这种能源劳动力的可替代性也意味着平均能源生产力弹性相对于劳动力是负数，也就是EL0劳动力价格增长，其他条件不变，促使劳动（增加Y/L）替代能源（从而降低了平均能源生产力Y/E）。尽管特定因子的平均生产力的措施包含了有用的摘要信息，他们受到了一个非常严重的反对。也就是说，它不是完全清楚，特定因子的平均生产力的提高总是可取的。例如考虑平均劳动生产率。随着资本对劳动的最初替代，Y/L是增加的。这种资本劳动的替代的想象几乎可以持续永久，直到最后可以生产出一个给定的产出水平，但是却

28、是一个单位的劳动，一个令人难以置信的复杂，昂贵的计算机网络和机器设备。虽然在工程意义上Y/L可能会是相当高的水平，它在这样低劳动力成本和资本结合中也有可能是非常昂贵的，高资本密集的环境可能会比更多的劳动和较少的资本更容易雇佣。同样的，事实上人们能够建立那些令人难以置信的高效节能的超级计算机（通过热力学定律隐含的限制），但是合并能源和营运资金成本例如高效节能设备可能会比更低的能源效率还要大而被雇佣来替代。这两个例子突出了重要的经济实际情况，企业，家庭和社会不一定是最好的，只是因为某些投入特定因子的生产率有所提高；作为一个结果其他消费投入可能会能加，因此，总资源成本对社会来说可能较大，与之前的可能

29、相同或者更少。我们需要的是一个生产率增长的措施来认识这个事实，即全部投入是稀缺的，而且所需的生产率增长是来自于合并后的所有储蓄投入，而不仅仅是一个投入。这种考虑导致了多因素生产力（MFP）增长的概念，被定义为产出量减去投入累计量，也就是，（7）累计投入增量是个别投入增量的加权总和，也就是，（8）随着WI权重分散在生产总成本中的第I个投入的成本。与特定因子生产率不同的措施，在MEP的增长中总是可取的，因为他们指出更多的产出被捆绑的投入所包含。这在很大程度上是由于更清楚的解释了，主要的国家统计机构，例如美国劳工统计局，现在统计了并定期的公布了MEP增长的措施。因此，从理论上讲，虽然MEP增长的措施明显优于特定因子生产率增长的措施，但是在实践中，MEP增长的测量比特定因子生产力价格和所有投入量的措施需要更多的数据是必要的。在这种情况下，主要的是要认识到在第（7）个公式中MEP的剩余的计算实际上可能不仅反映了知识的进步影响，而且也反映了测量误差的主因。导师评语签字年月日