中东欧国家的贸易和产业升级【外文翻译】.doc

1、1本科毕业论文外文翻译外文题目TRADEANDINDUSTRIALUPGRADINGINCOUNTRIESOFCENTRALANDEASTERNEUROPE出处EMERGINGMARKETSFINANCEANDTRADE作者ULRIKEHOTOPPSLAVORADOSEVICKATEBISHOP原文TRADEANDINDUSTRIALUPGRADINGINCOUNTRIESOFCENTRALANDEASTERNEUROPETHEECONOMIESOFCENTRALANDEASTERNEUROPECEEHAVEBECOMEHIGHLYINTEGRATEDINTOTHEWORLDECONOMYTH

2、ROUGHTRADEINARELATIVELYSHORTPERIOD,THEIRTRADEINTEGRATIONAPPROACHEDLEVELSTHATWOULDBEEXPECTEDGIVENTHEIRPROXIMITYTOEUROPEANUNIONMARKETSZOLTANETAL2001DIFFERENCESINTHERESPECTIVEPATTERNSOFTHEIRTRADEINTEGRATIONARECLOSELYRELATEDTORESPECTIVEDIFFERENCESINTHEIRECONOMIESPERFORMANCESINCE1989COUNTRIESTHATHAVEREFO

3、RMEDANDRESTRUCTUREDFASTERHAVESIGNIFICANTLYIMPROVEDTHEIRTECHNOLOGICALSTRUCTUREOFEXPORTSCOMPAREDTOLAGGARDSINTHISPAPER,WEANALYZEPATTERNSOFCHANGESINCEEEXPORTSINORDERTOUNDERSTANDDIVERGINGPATTERNSOFINDUSTRIALUPGRADINGINTHESEECONOMIESITISRELEVANTFORTHELONGTERMGROWTHOFTHECEECOUNTRIESWHETHERINTEGRATIONTHROUG

4、HTRADEISPUSHINGTHEIRECONOMIESTOWARDLONGTERMGROWTHBASEDONINNOVATIONANDINDUSTRIALUPGRADINGTHESEDYNAMICEFFECTSOFTRADEAREHIGHLYDEPENDENTONITSPRODUCTCOMPOSITIONTHETRANSFORMATIONOFPRODUCTCOMPOSITIONSOVERTIMEREFLECTSINDUSTRYRESTRUCTURINGASWELLASASPECIFICTECHNOLOGYBASEWHOSEDYNAMICPOTENTIALCANBEQUITEDIFFEREN

5、TFROMCOUNTRYTOCOUNTRYTHISISTHECASEFORBOTHIMPORTSANDEXPORTSIMPORTSCANINCLUDECAPITALGOODSANDCONSUMERGOODSCAPITALGOODSCANBEUSEDFORPRODUCTIONASWELLASIMITATION,WHILECONSUMERGOODSCANCONTRIBUTETODEVELOPMENTMAINLYVIACHANGESINTASTESANDIMITATIONINUSEWE,HOWEVER,CONCENTRATEONEXPORTSCHANGESINTHEPRODUCTCOMPOSITIO

6、NOFEXPORTSAREREFLECTEDINATLEASTTHREEDIFFERENTFORMSINTRADESTATISTICSANINCREASEINTHEVOLUMEOFCERTAINTYPESOFEXPORTS2SCALEANINCREASEINPRODUCTDIFFERENTIATIONORVARIETYSCOPEANDINCREASEDUNITPRICESQUALITYWEANALYZETHEPATTERNSOFINDUSTRIALUPGRADINGINCEECOUNTRIES,WHICHAREREFLECTEDINCHANGESINTHECOMPOSITIONOFTRADET

7、HROUGHCHANGESINTHERELATIVESHARESOFPARTICULARPRODUCTSANDCLUSTERSINEXPORTSSCALEANDINTHENUMBEROFPRODUCTSEXPORTEDSCOPEOURANALYSISCONCENTRATESONTHESETWOINTERRELATEDLEARNINGMECHANISMSMENTIONEDABOVE,SCALEANDSCOPELEARNINGCANOCCUREITHERBYEXPORTINGANINCREASEDNUMBEROFNEWPRODUCTSSCOPEORBYINCREASINGTHEMARKETSHAR

8、EOFAPRODUCTSCALE,INDICATINGTHESUCCESSOFAPRODUCTWEASSUMETHATBEHINDBOTHINCREASEDSCALEANDSCOPEINTRADETHEREARELEARNINGPROCESSESBASEDONLEARNINGBYDOINGARROW1962ANDONLEARNINGBYINTERACTINGMECHANISMSLUNDVALL1992THISPAPERAIMSTOMEASURETHESETWOLEARNINGMECHANISMSANDTHUSCONTRIBUTETOTHEUNDERSTANDINGOFHOWTRADEBASED

9、LEARNINGCONTRIBUTESTOINDUSTRIALUPGRADINGINCEEALTHOUGHSCALEANDSCOPEARENOTTHETRUEMECHANISMSOFLEARNING,THEYSUPPORTTHETRANSMISSIONOFKNOWLEDGEVIATRADEINTHATRESPECT,SCALEANDSCOPEINDICATORSAREUSEDASPROXIESFORDIFFERENTFORMSOFLEARNINGORINDUSTRIALUPGRADINGMOREOVER,ASLANGLOIS1997ARGUES,THESEMECHANISMSMOSTLYBOI

10、LDOWNTOTHEREUSEOFKNOWLEDGEBECAUSETHESECONCEPTSHAVEBOTHTHEORETICALANDEMPIRICALMEANING,THEYAREPOTENTIALLYUSEFULPROXIESFORUNDERSTANDINGTHELINKSBETWEENTRADEANDINDUSTRIALUPGRADINGWEASSUMETHEEXISTENCEOFSTRONGEFFECTSOFSPILLOVERSANDINCREASINGRETURNSASTRADEDEVELOPSKRUGMANANDOBSTFELD2003THESEDYNAMICASPECTSOFT

11、RADECANBEINCLUDEDBYACTIVETRADEPOLICYTHATISINTENDEDTOINFLUENCECOMPARATIVEADVANTAGESREDDING1999EXPLORESLEARNINGBYDOINGANDITSEFFECTSONCOMPARATIVEADVANTAGEHESHOWSCONDITIONSUNDERWHICHOVERALLWELFAREINBOTHTRADINGPARTNERSISIMPROVEDBYUSINGACTIVETRADEPOLICYTOADJUSTCOMPARATIVEADVANTAGESTOTHEABILITIESTOLEARNRAT

12、HERTHANFOLLOWINGSTATICINDUSTRIALSTRUCTURESWHILETHISPOLICYANGLEISOFINTEREST,ITISOUTSIDETHESCOPEOFTHISPAPERILITERATUREREVIEWTHEWORKONTRADEANDCATCHINGUPINCEEHASMAINLYFOLLOWEDTHEEMPIRICALROUTEEXCEPTIONALLY,LANDESMANNSWORKONCEEOFTENCOMBINESBOTHTHEORETICALANDEMPIRICALANALYSISSTEHRERETAL2000ANALYZEDTHECATC

13、HINGUPPROCESSIN3EXPORTPRICESASINDICATORSOFPRODUCTQUALITYTHEYFINDEVIDENCEOFACONVERGENCEPROCESSINEXPORTPRICESACROSSAWIDERANGEOFCOUNTRIES,ASWELLASARELATIVELYFASTCATCHINGUPPROCESSINTECHNOLOGICALLYMOREADVANCEDENGINEERINGBRANCHESINADVANCEDCEECOUNTRIESTHEMIXOFSECTORSCANPLAYANIMPORTANTROLEINFUTUREECONOMICAD

14、VANCESCUARESMAANDWOERZSANALYSISSHOWSTHATGAINSFROMHIGHTECHEXPORTSSURPASSTHEGAINSFROMLOWTECHEXPORTS2003,P9THEWORKBYLANDESMANN2000ANDLANDESMANNANDBURGSTALLER1997,NEVEN1994,ANDKUBIELAS1998CONCENTRATESONTHESTRUCTUREOFTRADEITSELFNEVENUSESAFACTORBASEDCLASSIFICATIONOFTRADEKUBIELASCOMBINESTHETAXONOMIESBYNEVE

15、NANDBYPAVITT1984TOANALYZETHECATCHINGUPPROCESSDESPITEDIFFERENTTAXONOMIES,THESESTUDIESCAMETORATHERSIMILARCONCLUSIONSREGARDINGCHANGINGPATTERNSOFCEETRADELANDESMANN1997SHOWSACHANGETOWARDLABORINTENSIVEBRANCHESANDASHIFTAWAYFROMCAPITAL,RD,ANDSKILLINTENSIVEBRANCHESLANDESMANNSANALYSISEMPHASIZESINCREASINGDIFFE

16、RENCESINSPECIALIZATIONPATTERNSAMONGCEECOUNTRIESTHEANALYSISBYKUBIELASSHOWSACLEARSTRUCTURALCHANGEOFTRADEWHENANALYZEDINTERMSOFTHEFACTORINTENSITIESOFEXPORTOVERALL,THEEMPIRICALLITERATURESHOWSTHATTHEREISSOMEEVIDENCEFORTRADEBASEDGROWTHINCEEITALSOSHOWSTHATOVERTHEEARLYPERIODOFTRANSITION,THEREWASASHIFTINPRODU

17、CTIONTOWARDLABORINTENSIVEPRODUCTS,WITHINCREASEDSPECIALIZATIONAMONGTHECOUNTRIESINRELATIONTOTHEABOVE,THISPAPERCONTAINSTWONOVELTIESFIRST,WECONSIDERTHE1988TO1999PERIOD,INCLUDINGTHEPERIODOFRECESSIONIMMEDIATELYFOLLOWINGTHEPOLITICALCHANGEAPPROXIMATELY1989TO1994ANDTHEFOLLOWINGRECOVERYINMOSTCOUNTRIES,SINCE19

18、9495SECOND,WEUSEAPRODUCTBASEDCLUSTERINGMETHOD,WHICHTHROWSLIGHTONCEETRADEANDUPGRADINGBYESTABLISHINGTHESCALEANDSCOPEBASEDMECHANISMOFLEARNINGANDINDUSTRIALUPGRADINGVIATRADEIIMODELOURMODELSTARTSFROMTHEASSUMPTIONTHATLEARNINGEFFECTSAREEMBODIEDINEXPORTEDGOODS,ANDHENCE,CHANGESINTHESTRUCTUREOFEXPORTSMAYENLIGH

19、TENOURUNDERSTANDINGOFINDUSTRIALUPGRADINGECONOMIESACCUMULATEPRODUCTIONEXPERIENCEMORERAPIDLYINTHESECTORSIN4WHICHTHEYARESPECIALIZEDEXCESSIVESPECIALIZATIONMAYLEADTOLOCKININTOANINITIALPATTERNOFSPECIALIZATIONALTHOUGHANINCREASEINEXPORTSHARESCALEISBENEFICIAL,ASITINCREASESTHESIZEOFTHEMARKET,ITDOESNOTENSUREHI

20、GHGROWTHGROWTHBASEDONINCREASEDSPECIALIZATIONINEXPORTSULTIMATELYMUSTBECOMPLEMENTEDBYINCREASEDPRODUCTVARIETYHENCE,LONGTERMGROWTHRESTSONCOMPLEMENTARYRELATIONSHIPSBETWEENSCALEANDSCOPEBEHINDTHENOTIONOFSCOPEISTHEIDEATHATANYLEARNINGISANEXPLORATORYPROCESS,WHERESTAGESOFEXPLORATIONAREFOLLOWEDBYCUMULATEDLEARNI

21、NGBYDOINGACTIVITIESDIVERSITYISAPRECONDITIONFORFURTHERSPECIALIZATIONTHEORETICALLY,LONGTERMINDUSTRIALUPGRADINGREFLECTSANEQUILIBRIUMDEVELOPMENTOVERTIMEBETWEENTHEINCREASEINTHENUMBEROFPRODUCTSANDINCREASEDSPECIALIZATIONANINITIALINCREASEINTHENUMBEROFPRODUCTSWOULDBESTRONG,BUTEVENTUALLYMARKETFILTERINGWOULDGE

22、NERATEINCREASEDSPECIALIZATIONASECONOMIESGROWANDTECHNOLOGIESDIFFUSE,WEWOULDAGAINEXPECTANINCREASEINTHENUMBEROFPRODUCTSTOBEFOLLOWEDBYINCREASEDSPECIALIZATIONIIIDATAOURANALYSISISBASEDONTHETRADEDATABASEATTHEEIGHTDIGITLEVELTHENUMBEROFEIGHTDIGITCATEGORIESISAPROXYFORSCALEORPRODUCTDIVERSITYTHEDATACOVERTHEPERI

23、ODFROM1988TO1999HOWEVER,SUBSTANTIALCHANGESINTHECLASSIFICATIONIN199495DONOTALLOWUSTOMAKEASTRAIGHTFORWARDCOMPARISONOFTHENUMBEROFPRODUCTSHENCE,WECOMPARETRENDSINABSOLUTENUMBERSOFPRODUCTSINTHEPERIODS198894AND199599TOENSURETHATTHEAMOUNTOFDATAISMANAGEABLE,WECONCENTRATEONTHE100PRODUCTSWITHTHEHIGHESTSHAREINE

24、XPORTSIE,THETOP100THECHANGEINTHECLASSIFICATIONLEDTOANINCREASEINTHENUMBEROFPRODUCTSWEEXPECTTHECHANGESTOBEDISTRIBUTIONALLYNEUTRAL,THATIS,TOBEEQUALLYDISTRIBUTEDOVERINDUSTRIESANDCOUNTRIESHOWEVER,WEWOULDEXPECTTHATWITHINCREASINGDIVERSIFICATIONTHEROLEOFTHETOP100PRODUCTSWOULDDIMINISHFURTHERANALYSISSHOWSTHAT

25、THISISNOTTHECASETHESHARESOFTHETOP100PRODUCTSINTOTALEXPORTSTOTHEEUROPEANUNIONVARYFROM453PERCENTCZECHREPUBLIC,1999TO616PERCENTROMANIA,1999AND959PERCENTALBANIA,1988THISMAKESTHISANALYSISREPRESENTATIVEOFACOUNTRYSTOTAL5EXPORTSTOTHEEUROPEANUNIONTHEFIRSTPARTOFTHEANALYSISENCOMPASSESSIXCEECOUNTRIESBULGARIA,TH

26、ECZECHREPUBLIC,HUNGARY,POLAND,ROMANIA,ANDALBANIAFORTHE198894PERIOD,WEUSEDATAFORCZECHOSLOVAKIANEXPORTSANDCOMPARETHEMWITHCZECHEXPORTSINTHESECONDPARTOFTHEANALYSIS,ALBANIAISLEFTOUTOTHERCOUNTRIESARENOTINCLUDEDBECAUSEOFDATAAVAILABILITYVIMETHODOLOGYWEHEREINTRODUCETHELEVELOFCLUSTERSASTHERELEVANTLEVELOFAGGRE

27、GATIONFORUNDERSTANDINGTRADEFLOWSWEGROUPPRODUCTSINTOCLUSTERSINABOTTOMUPFASHIONTOINCORPORATETHEPRODUCTSIMILARITYRATHERTHANUSINGEXISTINGTOPDOWNTAXONOMIES,ASPRODUCEDBYPAVITTANDBYNEVENHOWEVER,THETRANSFERABILITYOFOURTAXONOMYISRATHERLIMITEDATRADEOFFBETWEENCOMPREHENSIVEBUTOFTENIRRELEVANTTAXONOMIESINTERMSOFS

28、PECIFICFACTORCONTENTANDRELEVANTBUTSPECIFICTAXONOMIESSEEMSUNAVOIDABLETOPDOWNMETHODOLOGIESOFCLUSTERINGBYFACTORCONTENTAREBASEDONFACTORCONTENTSOFPRODUCTSINWESTERNCOUNTRIESSUCHASTHOSEINTHEEUROPEANUNIONORTHEUNITEDSTATESLANDESMANNS2000CLASSIFICATION,FOREXAMPLE,USESFACTORCONTENTDATAFROMWESTERNEUROPEANCOUNTR

29、IESINTERMSOFLABOR,CAPITAL,RD,SKILL,ANDENERGYINTENSITYONATHREEDIGITNACELEVELEACHTHREEDIGITNACECLASSIFICATIONCONTAINSANUMBEROFTHEEIGHTDIGITPRODUCTSWEARECONSIDERINGINOURANALYSISAPPLYINGANEXISTINGCLASSIFICATIONTOTHISBUNDLEOFPRODUCTSUSINGWESTERNFACTORINTENSITIESTHEREBYASSUMESTHATCEETHREEDIGITNACEPRODUCTS

30、HAVETHESAMEFACTORINTENSITIES,ANDTHATTHEPRODUCTDISTRIBUTIONWITHINANACECLASSIFICATIONISTHESAMEINTHECEEASINAWESTERNEUROPEANCOUNTRYITCOULDBEPOSSIBLE,THOUGH,THATTHEDISTRIBUTIONOFEIGHTDIGITPRODUCTSWITHINONENACEISMUCHMORESKEWEDTOTHELABORINTENSIVEEND,ORTHATITCOULDBEOFSIGNIFICANTLYDIFFERENTFACTORCONTENTINFAC

31、T,ANALYSESOFEASTWESTTRADEBASEDONUNITPRICESBYBURGSTALLERANDLANDESMANN1999SHOWTHISTOBETHECASEINIDENTICALPRODUCTGROUPS,CEECOUNTRIESOCCUPYMUCHLOWERVALUEADDEDPOSITIONSDULLECKETAL2004POINTOUTARELATEDPROBLEMINTHEIRANALYSISOFQUALITYUPGRADINGCONSIDERINGEVERYEIGHTDIGITPRODUCTONITSOWNANDALLOCATINGITTOACLUSTERC

32、ONSIDERSTHISPOSSIBILITY6WEDEVELOPEDATWOSTAGECLUSTERINGPROCESSINTHEFIRSTSTEP,THEINDIVIDUALPRODUCTATTHEEIGHTDIGITLEVELISCONSIDEREDWEHAVEUSEDEXPERTSVIEWSINCLUDINGTHEEXPERTISEOFSOMEUNIVERSITYOFSUSSEXSCIENCEPOLICYRESEARCHUNITSTAFFTOCLASSIFYTHETOP100PRODUCTSINEACHANALYZEDCOUNTRYBASEDONTHECONCEPTOFPRODUCTS

33、IMILARITYINPRODUCTIONANDUSE,LEADING,TOSOMEEXTENT,TOALESSSCIENTIFICLOOKINGCLASSIFICATIONTHANOTHERSTHATUSEEXISTINGGROUPINGSSUCHASNACEORSICTHEEXPERTSWEREUSEDMAINLYTODOUBLECHECKWHATINMOSTCASESWASOBVIOUSINTERMSOFTHETECHNOLOGICALANDFUNCTIONALSIMILARITYOFPRODUCTSTHELISTOFTWENTYONEBOTTOMUPGENERATEDCLUSTERSI

34、SGIVENINTHEAPPENDIXTHESETWENTYONECLUSTERSINTHESECONDSTEPWERECLASSIFIEDINTOTHREEGROUPSSUPERCLUSTERSCOMMODITIES,LABORBASED,TECHNOLOGYBASEDUSINGTHECRITERIAOFTECHNOLOGICALSIMILARITYTOREDUCETHENUMBEROFDATAPOINTSANDTOMAKETHECHANGESMOREVISIBLETHECLUSTERSANDGROUPSARESPECIFICFORTHETYPEOF100PRODUCTSFOUNDINTHI

35、SANALYSISANDCANNOTBEAUTOMATICALLYTRANSFERREDTOTHETRADEOFANOTHERCOUNTRYORANOTHERGROUPOFCOUNTRIESWECONSIDERTHISANADVANTAGERATHERTHANADISADVANTAGEASTHECLUSTERSREFLECTAREASOFSIMILARPRODUCTSEXPORTEDSPECIFICALLYFROMCEECOUNTRIESTHISEXPERTBASEDCLUSTERINGMETHODISSUPPORTEDBYTHEFACTTHATTHERESULTSDONOTCONTRADIC

36、TOTHERWORK,FOREXAMPLE,SCHNITZER1998,BUTTHROWADIFFERENTLIGHTONTHEPATTERNSOFCATCHINGUPVIATRADEIVCONCLUSIONSTHISPAPERHASFOCUSEDONUNDERSTANDINGTHEMECHANISMSTHATLINKTRADEANDINDUSTRIALUPGRADINGWEAPPROACHTHISPROBLEMUSINGTHELEARNINGANDINDUSTRIALUPGRADINGPERSPECTIVE1INTHEEARLYTRANSITIONPERIOD198894,THEDOMINA

37、NTMODEOFLEARNINGISSCOPEBASEDLEARNINGORACONTINUOUSINCREASEINTHENUMBEROFNEWPRODUCTSCOUNTRIESTHATOPENEDTOWORLDMARKETSSTARTEDTOEXPERIMENTANDTESTTHECOMPETITIVENESSOFPRODUCTSTHATWEREEITHERUNDEVELOPEDORSOLDONDOMESTICMARKETSONLYONLYINHUNGARYDOWEOBSERVEBOTHSCALEANDSCOPEBASEDLEARNING,MEANINGANINCREASEDDIVERSI

38、TYOFPRODUCTSACCOMPANIEDBYANINCREASEDSPECIALIZATIONINTHE7MAJORPRODUCTGROUPSTHISPATHISOPTIMALFROMTHEPERSPECTIVEOFINDUSTRIALUPGRADINGINOURMODELASITENSURESSIMULTANEOUSVARIETYANDSPECIALIZATION2INTHESECONDPERIOD199599,SCOPEBASEDLEARNINGHASBEENCOMPLEMENTEDBYSCALEBASEDLEARNINGINFOUROFTHESIXECONOMIESANALYZED

39、HUNGARYRETAINSITSVIRTUOUSPATTERNOFINDUSTRIALUPGRADINGINTHESECONDPERIODPATTERNSINTHESECONDPERIODAREMUCHMORECOUNTRYSPECIFIC,WITHPOLANDANDALBANIAEXHIBITINGDISTINCTIVEPATHSWHENCOMPAREDWITHROMANIA,BULGARIA,ANDTHECZECHREPUBLICHOWEVER,THESHIFTINTHISPERIODSEEMSNOTTOBESTRONGENOUGHTOOVERTURNTHETRENDFROMTHEFIR

40、STPERIODINANYOFTHESEECONOMIES3ACOMMONTRENDISTHEDECREASINGIMPORTANCEOFCOMMODITIESANDASHIFTTOWARDTECHNOLOGYANDLABORBASEDPRODUCTSCOUNTRYDIFFERENCESEMERGETOTHEEXTENTTOWHICHCOUNTRIESEXHIBITASHIFTTOWARDTECHNOLOGYORLABORBASEDPRODUCTSINBOTHDIMENSIONSHUNGARYAGAINEXHIBITSAUNIQUEPATTERNWHERESHIFTSFROMCOMMODITI

41、ESANDLABORBASEDPRODUCTSWEREMORETHANCOMPENSATEDFORBYTHESHIFTTOWARDTECHNOLOGYBASEDCLUSTERSANDPRODUCTS4DIFFERENCESINCOUNTRIESPATTERNSINTERMSOFTHEINCREASEDIMPORTANCEOFTECHNOLOGYBASEDPRODUCTSCLEARLYSHOWAPOLARIZATIONBETWEENCENTRALANDEASTERNEUROPECENTRALEUROPEANECONOMIESEXPORTGROWTHISBASEDONINCREASEDDIVERS

42、IFICATIONINTECHNOLOGYBASEDPRODUCTSASWELLASONINCREASEDSPECIALIZATIONINTHISGROUPLEARNINGMECHANISMSTHATUNDERPINTHEIREXPORTGROWTHAREBASEDONINCREASESINBOTHSCALEANDSCOPEHOWEVER,DIFFERENCESBETWEENSCALEANDSCOPEORBETWEENINCREASEDVARIETYANDSPECIALIZATIONAREMUCHLESSHOMOGENOUSINLABORINTENSIVEGROUPSOFPRODUCTS5TH

43、ELABORBASEDGROUPOFPRODUCTSSHOWSDIFFERENCESINTHEDEVELOPMENTOFSCALEANDSCOPETHISMAYSUGGESTTHATTHEREAREPROBLEMSINCOMPETITIVENESSINTHISGROUPINTHECEECOUNTRIES,ORTHATTHECOMPETITIVEPOSITIONISNOTYETCONSOLIDATEDASLANDESMANN2000SHOWS,THEGROWTHOFLABORPRODUCTIVITYISTHELEASTINLABORINTENSIVEINDUSTRIESINTHECEE,ITIS

44、MEDIUMINRESOURCEBASEDINDUSTRIES,WHICHCLOSELYRESEMBLESOURCATEGORYOFCOMMODITIES,ANDITISTHEHIGHESTINTHEHIGHTECHNOLOGYGROUPFIRMSARESTILLEXPLORINGNEWMARKETOPPORTUNITIESBYINTRODUCINGNEWLABORINTENSIVEPRODUCTSBULGARIA,ROMANIA,POLAND,ORBY8INCREASINGSPECIALIZATIONINTHISGROUPTHECZECHREPUBLIC,ORBYABANDONINGTHES

45、EPRODUCTSHUNGARY6OURMETHODOLOGICALAPPROACHHASREVEALEDNEWFACETSOFTRADERESTRUCTURINGANDINDUSTRIALUPGRADINGINTHECOUNTRIESOFCEEINPARTICULAR,DIMENSIONSOFSCALEANDSCOPEAREUSEFULPROXIESFORABETTERUNDERSTANDINGOFTHEMECHANISMSTHATLINKTRADEANDGROWTHITRELATESTOABETTERUNDERSTANDINGOFTHEMECHANISMSTHATUNDERPINCHANG

46、ESINTERMSOFSCALE,SUCHASLEARNINGBYDOING,ANDMECHANISMSTHATUNDERPINCHANGESINSCOPE,SUCHASLEARNINGBYEXPORTINGHOWEVER,THISAPPROACHNEEDSTOBECOMPLEMENTEDBYALTERNATIVEAPPROACHESINORDERTOUNDERSTANDTHEMECHANISMSTHATLINKTRADEANDINDUSTRIALUPGRADINGSOURCEULRIKEHOTOPP,SLAVORADOSEVICTRADEANDINDUSTRIALUPGRADINGINCOU

47、NTRIESOFCENTRALANDEASTERNEUROPEEMERGINGMARKETSFINANCEANDTRADEJ,20058P20379译文中东欧国家的贸易和产业升级通过贸易，中欧和东欧（中东欧）的经济已高度融入世界经济。在一个相对较短的时期内，它们贸易一体化水平的接近，预计将给予其优先靠近欧盟市场的机会（佐尔坦等，2001年）。自1989年以来，它们的贸易一体化的模式存在差异，各自不同，但是在经济方面的表现是密切相关的。国家的快速改革和重组大大改善了它们比较落后的技术出口结构。在本文中，我们分析中欧和东欧的出口格局的变化，以了解在这些国家的经济中不同模式的产业升级。它是有关中欧和

48、东欧国家在创新和产业升级的基础上的长期增长，即是否通过贸易一体化来推动其经济走向长期增长。贸易的这些动态效应高度依赖于它的产品组成。产品成分的改造随着时间的推移反映行业重组以及具体的技术基础，其动态潜力在每个国家都不同。这种情况对应于进口和出口。进口包括资本货物和消费品的进口。资本货物可用于生产以及仿制，而消费品主要通过改变口味和模仿使用对发展作出贡献。然而，我们集中讨论出口。在贸易统计里出口产品组成的变化主要表现出三种不同形式某一出口产品的绝对数量的增加（即规模）；增加产品的差异或品种（范围）和提高单位价格（质量）。我们分析在中欧和东欧国家产业升级的模式，这些都通过改变贸易中特定产品的相对份

49、额、出口集群（规模）和数量的出口产品（范围）的变化来反映。我们的分析集中在如上所述的两个相互关联的学习机制，即规模和范围。学习要么通过出口越来越多的新产品（或范围），要么通过增加产品的市场份额的（即规模）来发生，表明成功的出口产品。我们认为，在规模增加和贸易的范围扩大的背后，都有以实践为基础的学习过程（艾睿电子1962年）和关于学习的相互作用机制（LUNDVALL1992年）。本文的目的是为了衡量这两个学习机制，从而有助于理解在中欧和东欧以贸易为基础的学习如何有助于产业升级。虽然规模和范围是不是真正的学习机制，但是他们支持通过贸易传播知识。在这方面，规模和范围指标被用来替代不同形式的学习或产业升级。此外，正如彰（1997）认为，这些机制主要归结为知识的重用。因为这些概念都有理论和实证的意义，所以在理解联系贸易和产业升级的机制时，他们可能可以作为一种有用的替代。我们假设存在着强大的溢出效应和贸易发展的收益递增效应（克鲁10格曼和奥布斯特菲尔德2003年）。贸易的这些动态方面可以由影响比较优势的积极的贸易政策组成（星期日）。雷丁（1999）探讨了在实践中影响比较优势的学习。他表明了在贸易伙伴中提高整体福利，需要具有比较优势的能力和条件并使用积极的贸易政策进行调整，而不是在静态的工业结构下的学习。虽然这一政策考虑的角度很有兴趣，但它在本