由美国和欧洲的证据民间资本市场风险，确保区域吗【外文翻译】.doc

1、1本科毕业论文外文翻译外文文献译文标题由美国和欧洲的证据民间资本市场风险，确保区域吗资料来源HTTP冒号/SPRINGER点LIB点TSINGHUA点EDU点CN/CONTENT/L7110Q36P323R33U/FULLTEXT点PDF作者ANDREWATKESONANDTAMIMBAYOUMI自从20世纪90年代起，催化和促进避免私人资本流入市场，已经成为国际货币基金组织的目标。世界货币基金组织向公众提供监视服务、协商过程，以此让借贷者揭露他们的任务来宣扬宏观经济政策。而且，国际货币基金组织自身的贷款或许能通过为信誉可靠的国家在经历清偿危机时，提供资金桥梁来稳固资本流动。这些决定也许对协调

2、原始借贷方很困难。我们的分析是根据于新兴市场的贷款者与国际银行集团超过6700的货款交易以及在1991年到2002年间发生的3500新债券问题来探讨的。通过对交易的频率和利差的。在解释变量中（A）通过重复借用来时债权方了解借款方得特性的方法；（B）国际货币基金组织的支持程序的存在与大小（我们分析个人交易而不是分析聚集的资本流动或另外的宏观经济条件，而且我们的研究结果决定启动一个国际货币基金组织支持的计划。缺少实质性的跨时贸易和国家之间的风险分担是国际经济关系的一个显著特点。由于大多数国家在跨时贸易和国际风险分担上的孤立，通常国民收入和国民消费上的波动与国民生产的波动密切相关，总的来说不是与更大

3、的国际经济密切相关。本文通过一组关于美国部分地区的国民消费，收入和生产情况的数据来分析国民经济的孤立是否是大区域经济关系的基本特点，或者说它是否是跨越国际政治边界的经济关系中一个人为力量。本文对于此问题的讨论点源于一个更具体的问题上的深入，即欧共体成立后，各成员国为了平稳各国特殊的国民波动，会继续重视独立自主的货币政策或财政政策。如果各个国家可以通过利用金融市场来使他们的区域收入多样化，他们可以有更少的理由去关注国家的经济波动，相反可以多关注输出波动对国际化的影响。在这种意义上，公共平稳或是各自平稳区域经济的波动是可相互替补的；就各国想要从区域波动中，通过各自区域投资和收入的多样化来保护自己，

4、那么各个国家没有必要单独成立国家政府来继续独立自主的财政政策与货币政策，平稳他们各自国家的特殊波动。当我们显然不能解决这些问题时，2我们知道通过对美国区域经济调查的数据可以帮我们说明这论点。我们的下一个关注点是研究美国内部的区域间分散投资和总区域资本控股。为了调查资本收益的波动是否能反映一些总资本控股的行为模式，而不是简单的测量误差。我们将区域基本收益的波动分为几部分，并与三个典型消费者的选择投资组合相一致1在国内通过资本和投资来获得大部分收入的消费者；（2）在国内通过工作获取收入并且也从事资金投资的消费者；（3）从事信息工作或其他工作获取收入的消费者。为了便于比较，我们用相同的方法对一些欧洲

5、国家的数据进行分析。这些数据也同样表明私人资本流动中的很小一部分资本弥补了劳动收入中的资金波动。尽管如此，在欧洲案例中可以看出，总得来说不同国家从收入到资本的波动与欧洲整体的波动不是特别的密切相关。这结果来自于美国欧洲的联盟或许会密切这关联性，并且因此增加不同国家的私人资本流动的保险代理人抗击国家的具体冲击的程度。我们同样运用不同的方法来分析美国与欧洲利用直接的政府拨款和税收来平稳地区收入差异的有效性，从中我们可以得出这些拨款和税收在防止区域波动中起到一个很小但可察觉的作用。而且在美国地区和欧洲国家中，与拨款和税收同样的保险起了相似的作用。最后，我们来说这样一个问题，资金市场一体化是否联系着美

6、国客户地带。统计显示，要从地域起伏现象隔绝他们的消耗。尽管我们没有在商业圈频率有地域消耗数据，但是我们可以利用一些地区零售数据作为地域消耗数据的替代。我们还利用收入和物品数据来看是否在远期内消费者用两地间跨期贸易机会。美国地区数据不能显示重要的地区间的风险。因此，尽管在美国统一的市场中，也在地域消耗上出现了严重的滤波。从这些最初统计结果总结，从资金中看的私人收入的多数变化与资本家有关，他们没有防止劳动收入的变化，而是寻求稳定的和可预见的收入与平衡的资产投资组合联系起来。这些现象显示，地区间的资金获得总收入是资金收入多样化所刺激的结果。个人收入流动更小而重要的部分与劳动力收入变化相关。然而，在绝

7、对项中，保险费用的金额是相对较小的。没减少一美元的劳动收入，资本就会上升到11/3分。最后，这些还表明了在专门地方经济中投资的趋势。显然，资金收入在欧洲比在美国要有跟多的联系。惊人地，营业盈余变化系数比欧洲要小得多。美国地域的物品、收入和消耗数据显示，有关于目前美国地区间的资金市场表现和工业化国家的国际资本市场之间的差异有三个结果。结果一，目前国家界限是获得国际资本流动的主要阻碍。也就是说，美国地区间的因素。结果二，国界也是目前资本收入地理多样化的阻碍。在美国，地区间的资金总收入本质上比欧洲跨国界的国家要多。结果三，除了在资本市场的对私人地域3风险的这些机会，消费者主体没有私下地隔绝他们在地区

8、间的消费。私人领域在地域的收入与国民的流动有着很大的关系，但在防止劳动收入的波动这方面做的很少。政府计算出了主要的地域间劳动收入有限的保险额。所有结果表明了欧洲资本市场一体化。相比以前，如此的一体化很有希望为跨国资本流动提供机会。而且，在某一程度，资产在欧洲变得越来越与地理上的散布有关，将会加大私人资本市场防备地域间的波动。然而，保险额的增加可能是最谦虚的，因为这未必能为劳动收入的波动提供实质性的保护。4外文文献原文TITLEDOPRIVATECAPITALMARKETSINSUREREGIONALRISKEVIDENCEFROMTHEUNITEDSTATESANDEUROPEMATERIAL

9、SOURCEHTTP冒号/SPRINGER点LIB点TSINGHUA点EDU点CN/CONTENT/L7110Q36P323R33U/FULLTEXT点PDFAUTHORANDREWATKESONANDTAMIMBAYOUMCATALYZINGANDHELPINGTOAVOIDINSTABILITYINPRIVATECAPITALFLOWSTOEMERGINGMARKETSHAVEBEENOBJECTIVESOFTHEINTERNATIONALMONETARYFUNDSINCEATLEASTTHE1990S2THEIMFPROVIDESPUBLICMONITORINGSERVICESANDNE

10、GOTIATESPROGRAMSTHATENABLEBORROWERSTOREVEALTHEIRCOMMITMENTTOSOUNDMACROECONOMICPOLICIESINADDITION,ITSOWNLENDINGMAYSTABILIZECAPITALFLOWSBYPROVIDINGBRIDGEFINANCEFORCREDITWORTHYCOUNTRIESEXPERIENCINGLIQUIDITYCRISES,THERESOLUTIONOFWHICHMAYBEDIFFICULTTOCOORDINATEFORATOMISTICLENDEROURANALYSISISBASEDONMORETH

11、AN6,700LOANTRANSACTIONSBETWEENEMERGINGMARKETBORROWERSANDINTERNATIONALBANKSYNDICATESANDSOME3,500NEWBONDISSUESPLACEDBETWEEN1991AND2002WEANALYZETHEFREQUENCYOFTRANSACTIONSANDTHESPREADSCHARGEDAMONGTHEEXPLANATORYVARIABLESAREAAMEASUREOFREPEATBORROWINGTHATPROXIESFORCREDITORLEARNINGABOUTBORROWERCHARACTERISTI

12、CSANDBTHEEXISTENCEANDSIZEOFIMFSUPPORTEDPROGRAMSBECAUSEWEANALYZEINDIVIDUALTRANSACTIONSRATHERTHANAGGREGATECAPITALFLOWSOROTHERMACROECONOMICCONDITIONS,OURFINDINGSARELESSSUSCEPTIBLETOCAUSALITYRUNNINGFROMTHEOUTCOMETOTHEDECISIONTOINITIATEANIMFSUPPORTEDPROGRAMASTRIKINGFEATUREOFINTERNATIONALECONOMICRELATIONS

13、ISTHELACKOFSUBSTANTIALINTERTEMPORALTRADEANDRISKSHARINGAMONGNATIONS1ASACONSEQUENCEOFTHEISOLATIONOFMOSTCOUNTRIESFROMINTERTEMPORALTRADEANDINTERNATIONALRISKSHARING,FLUCTUATIONSINNATIONALINCOMEANDNATIONALCONSUMPTIONARE,ASARULE,HIGHLYCORRELATEDWITHFLUCTUATIONSINNATIONALPRODUCTIONANDNOTHIGHLYCORRELATEDWITH

14、FLUCTUATIONSINTHELARGERINTERNATIONALECONOMYASAWHOLETHISPAPERUSESDATAONCONSUMPTION,INCOME,ANDPRODUCTIONFROMREGIONSOFTHEUNITEDSTATESTOADDRESSTHEQUESTIONOFWHETHERTHISISOLATIONOFNATIONALECONOMIESISAFUNDAMENTALFEATUREOFECONOMICRELATIONSAMONGLARGEGEOGRAPHICREGIONS,ORWHETHERITISANARTIFACTOFECONOMICRELATION

15、SACROSSNATIONALPOLITICALBORDERS5OURINTERESTINTHISQUESTIONSTEMSFROMANINTERESTINTHEMORESPECIFICQUESTIONOFTHEEXTENTTOWHICH,AFTERINTEGRATION,THEVARIOUSMEMBERNATIONSOFTHEEUROPEANCOMMUNITYMIGHTCONTINUETOVALUEINDEPENDENTMONETARYORFISCALPOLICIESFORSMOOTHINGIDIOSYNCRATICNATIONALFLUCTUATIONS2IFINDIVIDUALSCANU

16、SEFINANCIALMARKETSTOGEOGRAPHICALLYDIVERSIFYTHEIRSOURCESOFINCOME,THENTHEYHAVELESSREASONTOBECONCERNEDABOUTNATIONAL,ASOPPOSEDTOINTERNATIONAL,FLUCTUATIONSINOUTPUTINTHISSENSE,THEPUBLICANDPRIVATESMOOTHINGOFREGIONALFLUCTUATIONSARESUBSTITUTESTOTHEEXTENTTHATINDIVIDUALSPROTECTTHEMSELVESFROMREGIONALFLUCTUATION

17、STHROUGHGEOGRAPHICDIVERSIFICATIONOFTHEIRINVESTMENTSANDINCOME,THEREISNONEEDTOHAVEINDIVIDUALNATIONALGOVERNMENTSPURSUEINDEPENDENTFISCALANDMONETARYPOLICIESTOSMOOTHTHEIROWNIDIOSYNCRATICFLUCTUATIONS3WHILEWECLEARLYCANNOTSETTLETHESEQUESTIONSHERE,WEFEELTHATEXAMINATIONOFDATAONTHEREGIONALECONOMIESOFTHEUNITEDST

18、ATESHELPSILLUMINATETHEDEBATEWENEXTTURNOURATTENTIONTOSTUDYINGTHEEXTENTOFINTERREGIONALPORTFOLIODIVERSIFICATIONORGROSSINTERREGIONALCAPITALHOLDINGSWITHINTHEUNITEDSTATESTOEXAMINEWHETHERTHEFLUCTUATIONSINCAPITALINCOMEREFLECTSOMEBEHAVIORALPATTERNOFGROSSCAPITALHOLDINGSANDNOTSIMPLYMEASUREMENTERROR,WEAPPORTION

19、THEFLUCTUATIONSINREGIONALCAPITALINCOMEINTOPARTSCONSISTENTWITHTHEPORTFOLIOCHOICESOFTHREEPROTOTYPICALCONSUMERS1CONSUMERSWHODERIVETHEBULKOFTHEIRINCOMEFROMCAPITALANDINVESTNATIONALLY,2CONSUMERSWHODERIVETHEBULKOFTHEIRINCOMEFROMLABORBUTWHOALSOINVESTTHECAPITALTHEYDOOWNNATIONALLY,AND3CONSUMERSWHO,FORINFORMAT

20、IONALOROTHERREASONSFORTHESAKEOFCOMPARISON,WEAPPLYTHESAMEMODELTODATAFROMSEVERALEUROPEANCOUNTRIESTHESEDATAALSOINDICATETHATONLYAVERYSMALLPARTOFPRIVATECAPITALFLOWSOFFSETFLUCTUATIONSINLABORINCOMEHOWEVER,INTHEEUROPEANCASE,FLUCTUATIONSININCOMEFROMCAPITALFORINDIVIDUALCOUNTRIESARENOTHIGHLYCORRELATEDWITHAGGRE

21、GATEFLUCTUATIONSFOREUROPEASAWHOLETHERESULTSFROMTHEUNITEDSTATESINDICATETHATINTEGRATIONINEUROPEMAYRAISETHISCORRELATIONANDHENCEINCREASETHEDEGREETOWHICHPRIVATECAPITALFLOWSINSUREAGENTSININDIVIDUALCOUNTRIESAGAINSTCOUNTRYSPECIFICSHOCKSWEALSOAPPLYAVARIANTOFTHEMODELTOTHEANALYSISOFTHEUSEOFDIRECTGOVERNMENTTRAN

22、SFERSANDTAXESTOSMOOTHREGIONALINCOMESINBOTHTHEUNITEDSTATESANDEUROPEWEFINDTHATTHESETAXESANDTRANSFERSPLAYASMALLBUTDETECTABLEROLEININSURINGAGAINSTREGIONALFLUCTUATIONSANDTHATTHESIZEOFTHISINSURANCEISSIMILARACROSSTHEREGIONSOFTHEUNITEDSTATESANDTHECOUNTRIESOFEUROPE6FINALLY,WEADDRESSTHEQUESTIONOFWHETHERTHEGRE

23、ATERINTEGRATIONOFTHECAPITALMARKETLINKINGTHEREGIONSOFTHEUNITEDSTATESACTUALLYALLOWSCONSUMERS,INTHEAGGREGATE,TOINSULATETHEIRCONSUMPTIONFROMREGIONALFLUCTUATIONSALTHOUGHWEHAVENODATAONREGIONALCONSUMPTIONATBUSINESSCYCLEFREQUENCIES,WEAREABLETOUSESOMEREGIONALRETAILSALESDATAASAPROXYFORREGIONALCONSUMPTIONDATA,

24、ANDWEUSEINCOMEANDPRODUCTDATATOSEEWHETHER,ATLONGERHORIZONS,CONSUMERSUSEOPPORTUNITIESFORINTERREGIONALINTERTEMPORALTRADEANDRISKSHARINGTOINSULATETHEIRCONSUMPTIONFROMREGIONALFLUCTUATIONSININCOMEANDPRODUCT4THEUSREGIONALDATADONOTDISPLAYSIGNIFICANTINTERREGIONALRISKSHARINGHENCE,EVENWITHINTHEUNIFIEDMARKETOFTH

25、EUNITEDSTATES,THEREWOULDAPPEARTOBESEVERELIMITATIONSONTHESMOOTHINGOFREGIONALCONSUMPTIONOVERREGIONALFLUCTUATIONSTOSUMMARIZETHERESULTSFROMTHESEINITIALREGRESSIONS,ITAPPEARSTHATMOSTCHANGESINPERSONALINCOMEFROMCAPITALAREASSOCIATEDWITH“CAPITALISTS“,WHODONOTINSUREAGAINSTCHANGESINLABORINCOME,BUTRATHERLOOKFORT

26、HESTEADYANDPREDICTABLEINCOMESTREAMASSOCIATEDWITHABALANCEDPORTFOLIOOFASSETSTHISAPPEARSTOREFLECTLARGEINTERREGIONALGROSSCAPITALHOLDINGSMOTIVATEDBYADESIRETODIVERSIFYCAPITALINCOMEASMALLERBUTSIGNIFICANTPARTOFPERSONALINCOMEFLOWSISASSOCIATEDWITHCHANGESININCOMEFROMLABORHOWEVER,INABSOLUTETERMSTHEAMOUNTOFINSUR

27、ANCEPROVIDEDISRELATIVELYSMALLFOREACHONEDOLLARREDUCTIONINLABORINCOME,CAPITALINCOMERISESBY11/3CENTSFINALLY,THEREAPPEARSTOBESOMETENDENCYTOINVESTEXCLUSIVELYINTHELOCALECONOMYCLEARLY,CAPITALINCOMEACROSSEUROPEANSTATESINMUCHLESSCORRELATEDWITHAGGREGATEBEHAVIORTHANINTHEUNITEDSTATES,PRESUMABLYREFLECTINGALACKOF

28、CAPITALMARKETINTEGRATIONSOMEWHATSURPRISINGLY,THECOEFFICIENTONTHECHANGEINOPERATINGSURPLUSESPROFITSISSMALL0011ANDINSIGNIFICANTFLUCTUATIONSININCOMEFROMCAPITALWITHINEUROPEDONOTAPPEARTOBEHIGHLYCORRELATEDWITHFLUCTUATIONSINCAPITALPRODUCT,POSSIBLYBECAUSECORPORATIONSSMOOTHCAPITALINCOMEFLOWSTHEDATAONUSREGIONA

29、LPRODUCT,INCOME,ANDCONSUMPTIONPRESENTEDINTHISPAPERAPPEARTOLEADTOTHREECONCLUSIONSABOUTTHECURRENTDIFFERENCESBETWEENTHEPERFORMANCEOFTHEINTERREGIONALCAPITALMARKETSWITHINTHEUNITEDSTATESANDTHEINTERNATIONALCAPITALMARKETSAMONGTHEINDUSTRIALIZEDCOUNTRIESOFTHEWORLDTHEFIRSTCONCLUSIONISTHATNATIONALBOUNDARIESCURR

30、ENTLYAREANIMPORTANTIMPEDIMENTTONETINTERNATIONALCAPITALFLOWSTHATIS,INTERREGIONALFACTORFLOWSWITHINTHEUNITEDSTATESAPPEARTOBEQUALITATIVELYLARGERTHANTHECORRESPONDINGFLOWSAMONGCOUNTRIESTHESECONDCONCLUSIONISTHATNATIONALBOUNDARIESALSOCURRENTLYIMPEDE7THEGEOGRAPHICDIVERSIFICATIONOFCAPITALINCOMETHATIS,INTERREG

31、IONALGROSSHOLDINGSOFCAPITALWITHINTHEUNITEDSTATESARESUBSTANTIALLYLARGERTHANTHEYAREACROSSTHEBOUNDARIESOFTHECOUNTRIESOFEUROPETHETHIRDCONCLUSIONISTHAT,DESPITETHESEOPPORTUNITIESINCAPITALMARKETSFORTHEPRIVATESMOOTHINGOFREGIONALRISKS,THEBULKOFCONSUMERSDONOTAPPEARTOPRIVATELYINSULATETHEIRCONSUMPTIONFROMREGION

32、ALCONDITIONSINASUBSTANTIALMANNERREGIONALFLOWSOFPRIVATESECTORINCOMEFROMCAPITALAREHIGHLYCORRELATEDWITHNATIONALFLOWSANDDOLITTLETOINSUREAGAINSTFLUCTUATIONSINLABORINCOMETHEVERYLIMITEDAMOUNTOFINSURANCEOFFLUCTUATIONSINREGIONALLABORINCOMEISCARRIEDOUTPRINCIPALLYBYGOVERNMENTSALLOFTHESECONCLUSIONSHAVEIMPLICATI

33、ONSFORTHEINTEGRATIONOFCAPITALMARKETSWITHINEUROPESUCHINTEGRATIONISLIKELYTOPROVIDEOPPORTUNITIESFORMUCHLARGERFLOWSOFCAPITALACROSSCOUNTRIESTHANINTHEPASTINADDITION,TOTHEEXTENTTHATASSETPORTFOLIOSBECOMEMOREGEOGRAPHICALLYDISPERSEDINEUROPE,THEREWILLBESOMEINCREASEINTHEDEGREETOWHICHPRIVATECAPITALMARKETSINSUREAGAINSTREGIONALFLUCTUATIONSHOWEVER,THISINCREASEININSURANCEISLIKELYTOBEMODEST,SINCEITISUNLIKELYTOPROVIDESUBSTANTIALPROTECTIONAGAINSTFLUCTUATIONSINLABORINCOME