季节变动.xls

1、年份 1季度 2季度 3季度 4季度 总计 季平均值2000 231.5 285.1 375.9 253.8 1146.3 286.5752001 257.8 296.3 387.4 279.2 1220.7 305.1752002 245.6 287.4 384.7 283.5 1201.2 300.32003 251.8 302.6 392.1 287.6 1234.1 308.5252004 241.9 312.5 405.7 278.3 1238.4 309.6同季平均 245.72 296.78 389.16 276.48 302.035年份 季度 季顺序t 销售量y 趋势值 趋势季

2、节比率（）20001 1 107 321.2 33.312577832 2 456 331.489474 137.56092913 3 512 341.778947 149.80442884 4 238 352.068421 67.6004963220011 5 127 362.357895 35.048222172 6 571 372.647368 153.22797063 7 641 382.936842 167.39052754 8 251 393.226316 63.8309263420021 9 158 403.515789 39.155840772 10 629 413.80526

3、3 152.00386663 11 660 424.094737 155.6256054 12 293 434.384211 67.4518071620031 13 176 444.673684 39.579585272 14 654 454.963158 143.74790323 15 686 465.252632 147.44677484 16 305 475.542105 64.1373280420041 17 186 485.831579 38.284872382 18 680 496.121053 137.06332283 19 725 506.410526 143.16448074

4、 20 324 516.7 62.70563189SUMMARY OUTPUT回归统计Multiple R 0.274290553R Square 0.075235308Adjusted R Square0.023859491标准误差 219.2666092观测值 20方差分析df SS MS F Significance F回归分析 170405.7270405.721.46441094 0.241882093残差 18865401.248077.85总计 19 935807Coefficients 标准误差 t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%Interce

5、pt 310.9105263101.85623.0524450.00685579 96.91851291524.9025X Variable 110.289473688.5027941.2101280.24188209 -7.5742344528.15318RESIDUAL OUTPUT PROBABILITY OUTPUT观测值 预测 Y 残差 标准残差 百分比排位 Y1 321.2 -214.2-1.00366 2.5 1072 331.4894737124.5105 0.58341 7.5 1273 341.7789474170.22110.797593 12.5 1584 352.06

6、84211-114.068-0.53448 17.5 1765 362.3578947-235.358 -1.1028 22.5 1866 372.6473684198.35260.929407 27.5 2387 382.9368421258.06321.209189 32.5 2518 393.2263158-142.226-0.66642 37.5 2939 403.5157895-245.516 -1.1504 42.5 30510 413.8052632215.19471.008323 47.5 32411 424.0947368235.90531.105365 52.5 45612

7、 434.3842105-141.384-0.66247 57.5 51213 444.6736842-268.674-1.25891 62.5 57114 454.9631579199.03680.932613 67.5 62915 465.2526316220.74741.034341 72.5 64116 475.5421053-170.542 -0.7991 77.5 65417 485.8315789-299.832 -1.4049 82.5 66018 496.1210526183.87890.861589 87.5 68019 506.4105263218.5895 1.0242

8、3 92.5 68620 516.7 -192.7-0.90292 97.5 725下限 95.0%上限 95.0%96.91851524.9025-7.5742328.15318X Variable 1 Residual Plot2520151050-400-2000200400X Variable 1残差X Variable 1 Line Fit Plot252015105005001000X Variable 1YY预 测 YNormal Probability Plot12010080604020005001000Sample PercentileYNormal Probability

9、 Plot12010080604020005001000Sample PercentileY季节指数计算表年份 1季度(%) 2季度(%) 3季度(%) 4季度(%) 总计2000 33.3125778137.56093 149.80443 67.600496 388.27842001 35.0482222153.22797 167.39053 63.830926 419.49762002 39.1558408152.00387 155.62561 67.451807 414.23712003 39.5795853 143.7479 147.44677 64.137328 394.911620

10、04 38.2848724137.06332 143.16448 62.705632 381.2183同季平均 37.0762197 144.7208 152.68636 65.145238 399.6286季节指数(%)37.1106751144.85529 152.82826 65.205778 400修正系数 1.0009293年份 季度 季顺序t 季节指数(%) 预测值20051 21 37.11067514195.569352 22 144.8552896778.276973 23 152.828257 836.839274 24 65.20577834363.75558a 310.9105b 10.28947