自上而下预算效益的实证证据【外文翻译】.doc

1、本科毕业论文（设计）外文翻译原文EMPIRICALEVIDENCEOFTHEBENEFITSOFTOPDOWNBUDGETINGTHEEMPIRICALSTUDIESOFTHERELATIONSHIPBETWEENINSTITUTIONSANDFISCALPERFORMANCEPROVIDESUPPORTFORTHEASSUMPTIONTHATATOPDOWNPROCESSISASSOCIATEDWITHLOWERDEFICITSANDDEBTSINHISPIONEERINGSTUDYOFBUDGETPROCEDURESOF12EUMEMBERCOUNTRIES,VONHAGEN1992TES

2、TSTHEHYPOTHESISTHATATOPDOWNPROCESSINTHEPREPARATORYPHASEOFTHEBUDGET,ANDATOPDOWNDECISIONMAKINGORDERINPARLIAMENTARYAPPROVALISMORECONDUCIVETOFISCALDISCIPLINETHANBOTTOMUPPROCEDURESTHESETWOASPECTSAREINCLUDEDINSTRUCTURALINDICESCHARACTERIZINGTHEBUDGETPROCESS,WHICHAREFOUNDTOHAVEASIGNIFICANTRELATIONSHIPWITHDE

3、FICITANDDEBTLEVELSDEHAANANDSTURM1994EXTENDTHESTUDYTOCONTROLFORTHECOMPOSITIONANDSTABILITYOFGOVERNMENT,ANDCONFIRMTHATCERTAINBUDGETINSTITUTIONS,INCLUDINGTOPDOWNBUDGETING,ARECORRELATEDWITHAMOREROBUSTFISCALPOSITIONWOO2003AKESASIMILARAPPROACHANDCONSTRUCTSANINDEXTHATBROADLYCORRESPONDSTOATOPDOWNBUDGETPREPAR

4、ATIONPROCESSWHENEXPANDINGVONHAGENSSTUDYTOINCLUDENINEEASTASIANCOUNTRIES,WOOCONFIRMSASTRONGRELATIONSHIPBETWEENTHESEINSTITUTIONALARRANGEMENTSANDFISCALOUTCOMESCONCENTRATINGONCENTRALANDEASTERNEUROPEANCOUNTRIES,GLEICH2003INCLUDESINDICESFORTHETOPDOWNCHARACTEROFBOTHTHEPREPARATIONOFTHEDRAFTBUDGETANDTHEPARLIA

5、MENTARYAPPROVALPROCESSHECONCLUDESTHATTHEPOSITIVEIMPACTOFMORESTRINGENTBUDGETINSTITUTIONSONDEFICITANDDEBTHOLDFORTHESECOUNTRIESASWELLYLOUTINEN2004,ALSOSTUDYINGCENTRALANDEASTERNEUROPEANCOUNTRIES,INCLUDESCRITERIAONTHEDECISIONMAKINGSEQUENCEINBUDGETPREPARATIONANDTHEORDEROFTHEAPPROVALPROCEDUREINPARLIAMENT,T

6、HUSCONFIRMINGEARLIERRESULTSAGAINSTTHESESTUDIESSTANDSPEROTTIANDKONTOPOULOS2002WHOCONSTRUCTANINDEXOFTHEPROCEDURALFRAGMENTATIONOFTHEBUDGETPROCESS,BROADLYCORRESPONDINGTOATOPDOWNANDABOTTOMUPPREPARATIONPROCESSALTHOUGHTHEYDEMONSTRATETHATALOWERLEVELOFFRAGMENTATIONIE,AMORETOPDOWNORIENTEDPROCESSISASSOCIATEDWI

7、THALOWERDEFICIT,LOWEREXPENDITUREANDLOWERREVENUE,THERELATIONSHIPISFOUNDTOBEWEAKWHILESUPPORTIVEOFTHEHYPOTHESISTHATTOPDOWNBUDGETINGISCONDUCIVETOAGGREGATEFISCALDISCIPLINE,THEREARESOMELIMITATIONSTOTHESESTUDIES,HOWEVERFIRST,THESTUDIESCONSTRUCTCOMPOSITEINDICES,CONSISTINGOFSEVERALINSTITUTIONALASPECTS,ANDTES

8、TTHEIRRELATIONSHIPWITHFISCALPERFORMANCETOARRIVEATTHESERESULTSITIS,THEREFORE,NOTPOSSIBLETOSEPARATEOUTTHECONTRIBUTIONOFTHETOPDOWNPROCEDURESECOND,ASDISCUSSEDABOVE,ITISINPRACTICEAMATTEROFINTERPRETATIONOFDEFININGABUDGETPROCESSASBEINGPREDOMINANTLYTOPDOWNORBOTTOMUPTHEDIVIDINGLINEMAYBEDRAWNDIFFERENTLYBYDIFF

9、ERENTSTUDIESTHIRD,THESESTUDIESHAVETORELYONFORMALINSTITUTIONS,WHILETHEBUDGETPROCESSINREALITYMAYWELLBEGOVERNEDBYAMULTITUDEOFINFORMALPRACTICESEHRHARTETAL2006TAKEADIFFERENTAPPROACHWHENTESTINGTHEIMPACTTHATTHESEQUENCEOFDECISIONSHAVEONTHEOUTCOMEOFABUDGETPROCESSINASERIESOFCONTROLLEDLABORATORYTRIALS,THEYDEMO

10、NSTRATETHATTHESIZEOFTHEBUDGETISINDEEDAFFECTEDBYCHANGINGFROMABOTTOMUPTOATOPDOWNDECISIONMAKINGPROCEDURE,BUTTHATTHEREISNOGENERALTENDENCYFORATOPDOWNPROCEDURETOPRODUCEASMALLERBUDGETSTRICTLYSPEAKING,THEOBJECTIVEOFTHEBUDGETPROCESSISTOAVOIDEXCESSIVEDEFICITSANDENSUREASUSTAINABLEFISCALPOSITION,RATHERTHANMINIM

11、IZESPENDINGLEVELSTHERESULTIS,THEREFORE,NEITHERANARGUMENTFOR,NORANARGUMENTAGAINST,TOPDOWNBUDGETINGHOWEVER,ASECONDRESULTOFTHESTUDYISTHATCOMPLEXITYISCOSTLY,ANDTHATANINCREASEOFTHENUMBEROFSPENDINGDIMENSIONSIE,MOREBUDGETITEMSANDLESSINFORMATION,REQUIREMOREVOTINGROUNDSTOREACHANEQUILIBRIUMASARGUEDABOVE,WITHA

12、BUDGETCONSISTINGOFALARGENUMBEROFAPPROPRIATIONS,APROCESSWHEREINFORMATIONGATHERINGHASANOPPORTUNITYCOST,ANDWHERETHEREISASETDEADLINEFORSUBMITTINGANDPASSINGTHEBUDGET,ATOPDOWNAPPROACHHASAHIGHERCHANCEOFLEADINGTOAFISCALLYSUSTAINABLEBUDGETATOPDOWNAPPROACHTOTHEPREPARATIONOFTHEBUDGETREQUIRESPROCEDURESFORESTABL

13、ISHINGTHEAGGREGATEEXPENDITURELEVELANDTHESECTORALALLOCATIONOFTHEBUDGETITALSOCHANGESTHEFOCUSANDDYNAMICSOFTHENEGOTIATIONSBETWEENTHEMINISTRYOFFINANCEANDLINEMINISTRIESASTYLIZEDCHARACTERIZATIONOFTHEBUDGETPROCESSISVALUABLEFORANALYZINGFACTORSTHATARERELEVANTFORHOWGOVERNMENTFINANCESEVOLVEOVERTIMETHEUSEOFSUCHA

14、BSTRACTIONSOFREALITYSHOULDNOTLOSESIGHTOFTHEFACTTHATBUDGETSARESHAPEDINAHIGHLYPOLITICALENVIRONMENT,WHERETHEREISOFTENPRESSURETODEVIATEFROMWHATISOPTIMALFROMACOLLECTIVEPOINTOFVIEWTHEREFORE,WHENDESIGNINGTHEINSTITUTIONALFRAMEWORKITBECOMESNECESSARYTOFINDAPRAGMATICBALANCEBETWEENATHEORETICALLYSTRINGENTMODELAN

15、DPRAGMATICCOMPROMISESNEEDEDFORTHEFRAMEWORKTOSURVIVEACENTRALFEATUREOFTHEBUDGETPROCESSISTHATDECISIONSARETHERESULTOFNEGOTIATIONSBETWEENNUMEROUSPLAYERSTHEPRESIDENT,PRIMEMINISTER,THEMINISTEROFFINANCE,INDIVIDUALLINEMINISTERS,AGENCYEXECUTIVES,CIVILSERVANTS,ANDPARLIAMENTARIANSANDTHATTHEBALANCEOFFISCALAUTHOR

16、ITYHASANIMPACTONTHEOUTCOMEANYALTERATIONOFTHEEXISTINGORDERWILLBEACCEPTABLEONLYIFAPLAYERSLOSSOFINFLUENCEINONEAREAISCOMPENSATEDBYINCREASEDINFLUENCEINSOMEOTHERAREASTRENGTHENINGTHETOPDOWNCHARACTEROFTHEBUDGETPROCESSWHICH,TOALARGEEXTENT,ISINTENDEDTOADDRESSAFRAGMENTATIONOFFISCALPOWERSANDTHESUBOPTIMALCOLLECT

17、IVEEQUILIBRIATHISGENERATESHASTOTAKEINTOACCOUNTTHEREDISTRIBUTIONOFROLESANDRESPONSIBILITIESFROMTHEPOINTOFVIEWOFTHEMINISTRYOFFINANCEORINPARLIAMENT,THEFINANCEORBUDGETCOMMITTEEINFLUENCEOVERTHEDETAILSOFTHEBUDGETISRELINQUISHEDINRETURNFORGREATERPOWEROVERAGGREGATEPARAMETERSFROMTHEPERSPECTIVEOFTHELINEMINISTRI

18、ESORTHESECTORALCOMMITTEESATOPDOWNPROCESSINTRODUCESRIGIDITIESANDCONSTRAINTSONTOTALEXPENDITUREANDSECTORALALLOCATIONS,WHICHREDUCESTHESCOPEFOREXPANDINGSECTORINTERESTSTHISMAYONLYBEACCEPTABLEIFCOUNTERVAILEDBYINCREASEDFLEXIBILITYWITHINTHERESPECTIVESECTOR,ANDIFTHEREFORMISCREDIBLEINTHESENSETHATTHENEWPROCEDUR

19、EISBINDINGFORALLMINISTRIESTHESINGLEMOSTIMPORTANTDECISIONFORTHEGOVERNMENTISTODETERMINETHESIZEOFGOVERNMENTINATOPDOWNPROCESS,THISISSUEISFORMALIZEDBYSETTINGALIMITONTOTALEXPENDITUREATTHEVERYEARLYSTAGEOFBUDGETPREPARATIONASDISCUSSEDBYLJUNGMAN2008,THEREAREARGUMENTSFORESTABLISHINGSUCHLIMITSWELLINADVANCEOFTHE

20、STARTOFTHEBUDGETPROCESSTHROUGHBINDINGMEDIUMTERMAGGREGATEEXPENDITURECEILINGSALTHOUGHNOTDERIVEDDIRECTLYFROMATOPDOWNCONCEPT,AMEDIUMTERMAPPROACHTOFISCALPOLICYFORMULATIONANDBUDGETINGISIMPORTANTTOENSURETHATAGGREGATEEXPENDITURELIMITSSERVETHEINTENDEDPURPOSEFROMONEPERSPECTIVE,THEOVERALLEXPENDITURELIMITCANBEV

21、IEWEDASAHIGHLYIDEOLOGICALDECISIONTHESIZEOFTHEBUDGETISAREFLECTIONOFACOMMITMENTTOPROVIDEGOODS,SERVICES,ANDSOCIALPROTECTION,ANDPROVIDESTHEAMOUNTOFRESOURCESTHATARETOBECONSUMED,INVESTED,ORTRANSFERREDSUCHAFUNDAMENTALDECISIONHASTOBEMADEBYPOLITICALASSEMBLIESIE,THECABINETOFMINISTERSANDPARLIAMENTFROMANOTHERAN

22、GLE,THEDETERMINATIONOFTHEEXPENDITURELIMITISATECHNICALISSUE,WHICHREQUIRESTHEEXPERTISEOFPROFESSIONALSINTHEMINISTRYOFFINANCEAQUALIFIEDASSESSMENTOFTHEROOMFOREXPENDITUREHASTOBEBASEDONAPROJECTIONOFAVAILABLERESOURCESINTERMSOFEXPECTEDREVENUEANDANANALYSISOFTHEADEQUATEFISCALPOLICYGIVENPREVAILINGECONOMICCONDIT

23、IONSPARALLELTOTHESETWOPERSPECTIVESISTHERISKOFINSUFFICIENTACCURACYOFMACROECONOMICANDFISCALFORECASTSABIASCAN,INSOMECASES,BEEXPLAINEDBYINADEQUATEFORECASTINGTECHNIQUESANOTHERPOSSIBILITYISTHEEXISTENCEOFPOLITICALPRESSURETOPAINTAPOSITIVEDEVELOPMENTSUCHATENDENCYDOESNOTHAVETOCOMEASDIRECTINTERFERENCEWITHTHEFO

24、RECASTS,BUTCOULDBETHERESULTOFCIVILSERVANTSUNWILLINGNESSTOPRESENTBADNEWSANIMPLICITASSUMPTIONINATOPDOWNAPPROACHISTHATTHEBUDGETPROCESSISCOMPREHENSIVE,INTHESENSETHATALLORATLEASTASIGNIFICANTPARTOFEXPENDITUREISCOVEREDBYTHEGOVERNMENTBUDGETTHEEXISTENCEOFSEPARATEBUDGETSTHROUGHEXTRABUDGETARYFUNDSORSIGNIFICANT

25、USEOFREVENUEBUDGETEDANDACCOUNTEDFORONANETBASIS,DIMINISHESTHEDISCIPLININGEFFECTOFANAGGREGATEEXPENDITURELIMITTHEEXPENDITURELIMITISALSOAFFECTEDBYTHEGOVERNMENTSASSESSMENTOFTHENEEDFORCOUNTERCYCLICALFISCALPOLICYRECOGNIZINGTHATINCERTAINCIRCUMSTANCESITMAYBENECESSARYTOACCELERATETHERETURNTOEQUILIBRIUMGDPLEVEL

26、STHROUGHEXPANSIONARYORCONTRACTIONARYFISCALPOLICIES,ARGUMENTSFORTEMPORARYDEVIATIONSFROMTHELONGTERMBUDGETBALANCEPOSITIONHAVETOBETAKENINTOACCOUNTWHENDETERMININGTHELEVELOFTOTALEXPENDITUREPRIMARILYTHISINVOLVESESTIMATINGTHEEFFECTOFTHEAUTOMATICSTABILIZERSONTHEEXPENDITURESIDEOFTHEBUDGETINAPARTICULARLYSEVERE

27、DOWNTURN,ITMAYALSOBENECESSARYTOCOMPLEMENTTHEAUTOMATICSTABILIZERSWITHDISCRETIONARYFISCALPOLICYAPOLICYSTAGEWHERETHEGOVERNMENTDISCUSSESANDESTABLISHESSECTORALLOCATIONSPREFERABLYINAMEDIUMTERMCONTEXTPROVIDESSTRUCTUREANDSTABILITYTOTHEBUDGETPROCESSCONSIDERINGTHEHETEROGENEITYOFCONSTITUTIONALARRANGEMENTS,PUBL

28、ICSECTORMANAGEMENTTRADITIONSANDPOLITICALCONDITIONS,ITISDIFFICULTTOGENERALIZEPROCEDURESTHATAREAPPROPRIATIONALLCIRCUMSTANCESSOMEELEMENTSOFANALLOCATIVEPHASEAPPEARTOBEIMPORTANT,HOWEVERTHEALLOCATIONOFTHEBUDGETTOKEYSECTORSISESSENTIALLYANEXPRESSIONOFPOLITICALPRIORITIESTHEAMOUNTOFRESOURCESALLOCATEDTOVARIOUS

29、OBJECTIVESSUCHASEDUCATION,DEFENSE,REGIONALDEVELOPMENT,INFRASTRUCTURE,UNEMPLOYMENTSUPPORT,ORSOCIALWELFARE,ISTHECHARACTERIZINGDIFFERENCEBETWEENPOLITICALPARTIESORFACTIONSWITHINPARTIESDETERMININGTHEALLOCATIONOFTHEBUDGETTOOVERALLSECTORSIS,FROMTHISPERSPECTIVE,ASTAGETHATSHOULDATTRACTSIGNIFICANTATTENTION,AS

30、ITISATTHISTIMETHATPOLICIESARESETHOWEVER,ANEWROUNDOFBUDGETPREPARATIONDOESNOTGIVEUNLIMITEDFREEDOMTOREASSESSGOVERNMENTPOLICIESFORAGIVENYEAR,MOSTEXPENDITUREISFIXEDBYLEGALLYBINDINGCONTRACTS,CIVILSERVICEEMPLOYMENTLEGISLATIONANDANNUALAGREEMENTSONSALARYINCREASES,EXPLICITCOMMITMENTSTOSPECIFICAREASORENTITLEME

31、NTLEGISLATIONRADICALCHANGESARERARELYPOSSIBLEFROMONEYEARTOANOTHERBUDGETPOLICYCANBEREDIRECTED,BUTNOTICEABLERESULTSMAYTAKELONGERTHANONEYEARWHENTAKINGINTOACCOUNTTHEINERTIAOFCURRENTPOLICIES,ASIGNIFICANTPARTOFSETTINGSECTORALLOCATIONSBECOMESAPOLITICALLYUNEVENTFULPROCESSOFCORRECTLYESTIMATINGEXPENDITUREFORPO

32、LICYDECISIONSTHATAREALREADYBEINGIMPLEMENTEDTHECONTENTIOUSISSUEIS,THEREFORE,TODETERMINEHOWTODISTRIBUTEANYADDITIONALROOMFOREXPENDITUREORIFSODEMANDED,WHERETOMAKEEXPENDITURECUTSWHICHISASIGNIFICANTLYMOREMANAGEABLEUNDERTAKINGTHANMAKINGAFULLREASSESSMENTOFGOVERNMENTPOLICIESINADDITION,THEDISCRETIONWIELDEDBYT

33、HEGOVERNMENTISOFTENLIMITEDBYPOLICYCOMMITMENTSMADEEARLIERTHROUGHCOALITIONAGREEMENTS,PARTYMANIFESTOS,POLITICALPROGRAMS,ORBYSTATEMENTSBYTHEPRESIDENT,PRIMEMINISTEROROTHERREPRESENTATIVESOFTHEGOVERNMENTTHEALLOCATIVEPHASEISTHEREFORE,TOSOMEEXTENT,APROCESSOFCONSOLIDATINGPOLICYCOMMITMENTS,ANDTRANSLATINGTHEMIN

34、TOACOHERENTEXPENDITUREPLANTHISVIEWOFTHEPROCESSHIGHLIGHTSTHEIMPORTANCEOFHAVINGACAPACITYTOMAKEACCURATEEXPENDITUREPROJECTIONSUNLESSTHEALLOCATIONTOSECTORSISBASEDONAQUALIFIEDASSESSMENTOFTHECOSTOFCONTINUINGCURRENTPOLICIESANDTHECOSTOFNEWINITIATIVES,ITSUSEFULNESSBECOMESHIGHLYQUESTIONABLEINSUFFICIENTUNDERSTA

35、NDINGOFTHEEXPENDITUREDYNAMICSOFGOVERNMENTPOLICIESISAWIDESPREADOBSTACLEFORBUDGETMANAGEMENTASTRINGENTTOPDOWNPROCEDUREPRESUPPOSESTHATDECISIONSMADEEARLIERINTHEBUDGETPROCESSARERESPECTEDANDADHEREDTOTHISIMPLIESTHATTHEOVERALLCEILINGANDTHESECTORALLOCATIONSAREPOLITICALLYREALISTICAMINIMUMACCEPTEDLEVELOFFUNDING

36、FORTHEVARIOUSSECTORSMUSTBEMADEAVAILABLEINTHEBUDGET,ANDTHISALLOCATIONMUSTBESUPPORTEDBYASUFFICIENTNUMBEROFMEMBERSINTHEDECISIONMAKINGBODYSOMEKINDOFENDORSEMENTOFTHESECTORALALLOCATIONS,WHICHCANBEREFERREDTOATLATERSTAGESINTHEBUDGETPROCESS,ISNECESSARY,ALTHOUGHTHEEXACTFORMATOFTHISDECISIONISDETERMINEDBYCOUNTR

37、YSPECIFICCIRCUMSTANCESEXCEPTFORTHEVERYSPECIALCIRCUMSTANCEWHERETHEPOLICYAGENDAISCOMPLETELYDICTATEDBYONLYONEORAFEWINDIVIDUALSINTHEEXECUTIVE,THEALLOCATIVEPHASEWILLHAVETOINVOLVETHEENTIRECABINETOFMINISTERSINORDERFORSECTORCEILINGSTOBEEFFECTIVEINTHEPROCESSOFPREPARINGTHEBUDGET,ITISVITALTHATTHEYAREOPERATIONA

38、LFORTHISREASON,THEYHAVETOBEDEFINEDINADIMENSIONTHATCANBEEASILYTRANSLATEDTOTHECLASSIFICATIONOFTHEBUDGETANDTHEORGANIZATIONALSTRUCTUREOFTHEGOVERNMENTADMINISTRATIONSECTORCEILINGSSTRETCHINGOVERSEVERALMINISTRIESNECESSITATEACOORDINATIONTHATMAYBEDIFFICULTTOACHIEVEINPRACTICEINORDERTOENSUREADHERENCETOTHECEILIN

39、GS,ITIS,FURTHERMORE,IMPORTANTTOHAVEACLEARACCOUNTABILITYFORTHERESPECTIVECEILINGINTHEBUDGETPREPARATIONPROCESSTHISISDIFFICULTTOENFORCEIFTHECEILINGISSHAREDBETWEENSEVERALMINISTERSSOURCELJUNGMAN2009TOPDOWNBUDGETINGAINSTRUMENTTOSTRENGTHENBUDGETMANAGEMENTIMFWORKINGPAPER,243PP1016译文自上而下预算效益的实证证据有关机构和财政绩效两者关系

40、的实证研究，为一个自上而下的决策流程假设提供支持，自上而下的决策流程同较低的赤字和债务联系在一起。在对十二个欧盟成员国的国家预算程序的开创性研究中，冯哈根1992验证了预算筹备阶段中自上而下决策流程的假设。在议会中一个自上而下的决策程序要比自下而上的决策程序更有利于财政方案的批准。决策程序的两方面都包含在具有预算过程特征的结构指数中，该指数与债务和赤字水平有重要关系。德哈恩与斯特姆1994扩大了研究范围来控制政府组成和保持政府稳定，并验证了包括自上而下的预算程序在内一定的预算机制与更稳健的财政政策密切相关。沃2003采取了类似的方法构造了一个指数，这个指数广泛地应用于自上而下预算准备程序。当把

41、冯哈根的研究扩展到包括东亚九个国家在内，沃证实了这些制度安排和财政成果之间的牢固关系。格雷2003关注中东欧国家的编制预算草案和自上而下的议会决策程序的批准过程。他得出结论认为，更严格的预算机制将对这些国家的赤字和债务产生积极影响。易劳特2004也在研究中东欧国家，包括预算筹备的决策标准和议会审批程序，因此证实了较早前的结果。针对这些研究，佩罗蒂和卡特保罗斯2002他们构建了预算过程中的程序性分化指数，该指数大致相当于一个自上而下和自下而上的准备过程。尽管它们表现出较低水平的程序（即一个更自上而下化的过程）是与低赤字、低开支和低收入相关，但这种关系受到了削弱。虽然自上而下的预算过程假设是有利于

42、财政法案获得支持，但是对这些研究仍有一些局限。首先，研究构建综合指数，这个指数包含一些体制方面的问题,并测试它们与财政状况的关系所形成的结果,因此不可能区分自上而下流程作出的贡献。其次，正如以上所讨论的，它实际上是对一个所谓的预算过程问题的解释，这种预算过程目前主要是自上而下或自下而上的进程。不同的研究会得出不同的结论。第三，这些研究要依赖于正式的机构，但在现实中的预算过程很可能受大量的非正式条件的制约。艾哈特等人2006采取了一种不同的方法，得出测试时决定的结果对预算过程的结果有影响。在一系列可控制的试验中，他们表明预算结果的大小确实受到自下而上或自上而下的决策过程的影响，但对于自上而下的程

43、序能生成较小预算而言却没有统一的趋势。严格地说，预算程序的目的是为了避免过多的赤字和确保一个可持续的财政状况，而不是减少开支水平。因此，结果是既不支持也不反对自上而下的预算。然而，这项研究的第二个结果是复杂的是昂贵的，而且规模支出数量的增加（即更多的预算项目）和更少的信息需要更多轮投票来达到一种均衡。综上所述，由于预算由一定量的拨款组成，信息收集的过程存在一个机会成本，即有一个为提交和通过预算所设定的最后期限，因此一个自上而下的方法会有更好的机会导致财政预算的可持续。对于预算准备而言，一种自上而下的方法要求建立总开支水平和部门预算的分配程序。这也改变了财政部和相关部委之间谈判的焦点和动力。一个

44、预算过程的程序化定性分析因素是分析随着时间的推移如何体现政府财政状况相关因素的价值。这种对现实抽象化的使用不应忽视，实际上预算是在一个高度的政治环境中得以制定，在这种环境中经常有压力使其背离从集体角度看是最优的东西。因此，在设计体制框架时，找到一个严格理论模型和妥协所需框架之间的平衡是必需的。预算过程的一个核心特点是众多政府成员之间谈判妥协的结果，这些成员包括总统、总理、财政部长、个人信息部长、机构代理人员、公务员以及议员。现存秩序的任何改革，当且仅当政府要员在某个有影响的领域中增加损失而在其他领域中的影响得以补偿的情况下，才可以接受。加强预算过程的自上而下的特征不得不考虑到角色和职责的重新分

45、配，这在一个很大程度上是为了解决一系列的财政权力分散和集权的弊端。从财政部（或在国会、财务或预算委员会）的角度来看，对预算的详细信息的舍弃以换取更大总体参数的权力。从部委或部门委员会来看，在总支出和部门分配的方面自上而下流程引入强硬程度和限制因素，从而减少了部门利益范围的扩大。如果通过增加各部门的灵活性或者如果在各部委意见相结合的的意义上进行改革是可信的，这才可以接受。对于政府而言最重要决定是确定政府的规模。在自上而下的进程中，这一问题是通过在预算编制的最初阶段设置总开支的限额加以具体化。正如勒俊所讨论的那样，在预算过程初始阶段，通过具有约束力的中期总支出预算来较好地建立这些限制是有争论的，尽

46、管这种观念没有直接来源于自上而下的预算程序，但一个中期的财政预算及其编制方法对于确保总支出限额达到预期目标是十分重要的。从这个角度看，设定总开支限额可以被视为一个极具思想性的决定。预算的规模是提供商品、服务和社会保护承诺的反映，并提供大量的消费、投资或融资的资源。这种根本性的决定必须由政治集团（内阁部长和议会）作出。从另一个角度看，该支出限额的界定是一个技术问题，这需要财政部专业人才的专业知识。对于这一领域内的支出考核，必须根据有利资源（一定时期内可预见收入）的预测和当时经济条件下充分的财政政策分析。平行于这两种观点是宏观经济和财政预测不够准确的风险。在某些情况下，预测技术可以用来解释这种偏置

47、。另一种可能性是政治压力所描绘出积极发展的存在。这种趋势不必直接影响预测，但这可能是政府官员不愿意呈现坏消息的结果。一个自上而下的方法所隐含的假设是全面的预算过程，也就是说在一定意义上所有或至少大部分开支政府预算都会涉及的。对于单独预算基金或预算外收入和净额的使用，削弱了总支出限额的规范作用。总开支限额也受到政府对反周期的财政政策的评估的影响。必须意识到在某些情况下，扩张性或紧缩性的财政政策能使其加速回归到国民生产总值的平衡水平。当确定总开支水平的时候，从长期预算平衡角度，必须考虑到暂时性偏差参数。这主要涉及估算对预算总支出方面的自动稳定器的作用。在经济特别严重衰退时，总开支限额也可能是财政政

48、策的自动稳定器的必要补充。政府讨论和建立分段性任务（尤其在中期阶段）的政策阶段为预算过程提供了结构。考虑到宪法的规定及公共部门的管理传统和政治条件的异质性，很难一概而论该种程序适用于所有情况。但是资源配置阶段的一些要素似乎是重要的。预算分配的关键是政治优先权的表达。不同数量的预算资源调拨到各种各样的领域诸如教育，国防，区域发展，基础设施，失业救济或社会福利，是执政党或党内派别之间的不同特征。从这个角度看，因为在这段时间内财政政策需要制定，所以确定预算分配的整体行业是一个重要的阶段应引起重视。然而，新一轮的预算编制不给人以无限的时间去重新评估政府的政策。在特定的年里，大部分的开支由具有法律约束力

49、的合约、公务员就业立法和每年工资的涨幅协议、对特定领域或权利立法所确定。根本性变化几乎不可能年年发生。预算政策可以被重新定向，但明显的成效可能需要较长时间才得以显现。当考虑到目前的政策的连贯性，设置部门专款的重要组成部分成为正确估计已经实施的政府开支的政治上相安无事的过程。因此，争论的焦点是决定如何区分总开支预算中增加的部分（或者说如果这样要求，政府预算需在哪些领域削减开支），这比制定一个完全的政府政策更具有操作性。此外，自由裁量权通常是由早些时候通过联合协议，政党宣言，政治纲领，或由总统，总理或政府其他代表的发言作出的政策承诺。因此需要在资源分配阶段，实现一定程度上政策承诺，并将其转化为一个连贯的支出计划。这过程的观点强调了有能力准确作出支出预测的重要性。除非各部门的分配是基于对当前的持续性政策和新措施的成本费用考核是合格的，否则它的用处变得非常值得怀疑。对政府政策的不透彻的理解是一个动态的支出预算管理的普遍障碍。一个严格的自上而下的决策过程的先决条件是在预算过程中更早得到尊重和遵守。这意味着整体部门的拨款是政治性现实。各部门最低可接受筹资水平必须在现有的预算内，而且这必须得到分配中的决策机构足够数量的支持。一些部门分配可以被称为在预算过程的后期阶段，通过预算是必要的，尽管这个决定的确切模式是按国家的具体国情确定。除非在特殊的情况下，施政纲领是完全只由一个或少数人决定的