财务风险管理在数字经济时代的未来趋势和挑战【外文翻译】.doc

1、 外文翻译 原文 Future Trends and Challenges of Financial Risk Management in the Digital Economy Material Source: http:/ Author:Steven Li In this paper， the future trends and challenges of financial risk management are considered First， the historical developments and current status of financial risk manag

2、ement are assessed Then， key features of the financial industry in the digital economy are discussed It is argued that the technology innovations， particularly in computing and telecommunication， will continue to have an important influence on the future development of financial risk management Base

3、d the past and present of financial risk management as well as the general trends in the financial industry，some future trends and challenges of financial risk management in the digital economy are discussed Finally， some implications for financial institutions，corporations and emerging economies ar

4、e given Risk is an old concept associated with uncertainty There have been many different definitions However， there has been little consensus on the concept of risk， see Gao (2001) for a more detailed discussion In the course of running a business， decisions are made in the presence of risk A decis

5、ion-maker can confront one of two types of risk Some risks are related to the underlying nature of the business and deal with such matters as the uncertainty of future sales or the cost of inputs These risks are called business risks Another class of risks deals with the uncertainty of such factors

6、as interest rates， exchange rates， stock prices， and commodity prices These are called financial risks Most businesses are accustomed to accepting business risks such as the uncertainty of future sales Indeed the acceptance of business risks and the potential rewards can come with it are the foundat

7、ions of the free market economy But financial risks are a different matter， as often businesses are not accustomed to accepting and managing them The paralysing uncertainty of volatile interest rates can cripple the ability of a firm to acquire financing at reasonable cost Firms that operate in fore

8、ign markets can have excellent sales performance offset if its own currency is strong Managers of portfolios deal on a day to day basis with widely unpredictable and sometimes seemingly irrational financial markets These examples clearly demonstrate that financial risks can be important for many bus

9、inesses In coping with growing financial risks ， various derivative products (e g options， swaps) have been developed in the past 20 years and they are now widely used by large corporations1， financial institutions， professional investors，and individuals Certain types of derivatives are traded activ

10、ely in public markets， similar to the stock exchanges The vast majority of derivatives， however， are created in private transactions The critical importance of using derivatives properly has created a whole new activity called financial risk management Financial risk management is the practice of de

11、fining the risk level of a firm desires， identifying the risk level a firm currently has， and using derivatives or other financial instruments to adjust the actual level of risk to the desired level of risk (Chance， 2000) Financial risk management has also spawned an entirely new industry of financi

12、al institutions that offer to take positions in derivatives opposite the end users， which are corporate or investment funds The need for sound financial risk management was highlighted by a number of high-profile risk management disasters in the1990s In each of these cases， a single individual or su

13、bsidiary company built up huge positions (apparently) without knowledge of senior management or the parent company The firms involved then suffered very large losses when the risks turned sour Among the most noteworthy of these cases were (Dowd， 1998)： Metallgesellschaft A US subsidiary of MG built

14、up very large positions in oil futures in an attempt to hedge some long-term forward contracts it has sold The fall in oil prices in 1993 then led to very large losses， and the German parent company intervened to liquidate the remaining futures positions The ultimate loss was $1.3 billion Orange Cou

15、nty The County Treasurer， Bob Citron， invested much of the Countys investment pool in highly leveraged derivatives instruments that were， in effect， a very large bet on interest rates remaining low The rise in interest rates in 1994 then inflicted huge losses on the Investment Pool-$1.7 billion in a

16、lland led to the Countys bankruptcy Barings Bank Nick Lesson， a trader working out of Barings Singapore subsidiary， built up huge unauthorised positions in futures and options The amounts involved vastly exceeded the banks capital， and adverse movements in these markets forced the bank into bankrupt

17、cy in February 1995 The ultimate loss to the bank was about $1.3 billion Sumitomo Corporation In June 1996， Sumitomo announced a loss of $1.8 billion These losses had accumulated over a 10-year period from unauthorized trades by its chief copper trader， Yasuo Hamanaka， which he had managed to cover

18、up In each of these cases， losses were well in excess of $1 billion However， there were also many other cases where smaller losses were made in much the same way These well-publicised disasters had intensified the ongoing debate about risk management practice Consequently， many risk control measures

19、 and concepts such as “Value-at-Risk” (VaR) were introduced to prevent such disasters (Tortoriello，2000) In todays digital economy， computing and telecommunication technologies are progressing rapidly This will continue to bring new challenges and new opportunities for financial risk management New

20、products for financial risk management will continue to grow For example， the rapidly growing e-commerce calls for new financial products to managing e-commerce risks， Li (2001) In this paper， we attempt to shed some light on the future trends and challenges of financial risk management， as well as

21、their implications for financial institutions ， corporations and emerging economies In the two decades of 1980s and 1990s， firms have been increasingly challenged by financial price risks (Chances， 2001) For examples， changes in exchange rates can create strong competitors： similarly， fluctuations i

22、n commodity prices can drive input prices to the point that substitute products become more affordable to end users It is no longer enough to be the firm with the most advanced production technology， the cheapest labour supply， or the best marketing team; price volatility can even put well-run firms

23、 out of business Due to these challenges and the theoretical breakthroughs marked by the publication of the option pricing model by Blacks and Scholes (1973) and Merton (1973)， a range of financial instruments and strategies have evolved in the past 20 years To name a few， swaps and forwards are bec

24、oming increasingly popular in controlling the risk of price changes in raw materials， credit derivatives including credit swap， credit spread option etc are widely used in managing credit risks As an example， the rapid development of the option market in Australia is clearly demonstrated in Figure 1

25、 figure 1 Australian option market At one level， financial instruments now exist that permit the direct transfer of financial price risk to a third party more willing to accept that risk For example， with the development of foreign exchange futures contracts， a U S exporter can transfer its foreign

26、exchange risk to a firm with the opposite exposure， or to a firm in the business of managing foreign exchange risk， leaving the exporter free to focus on its core business For details of the derivative products available， we refer to Smithson (1998) and Chance (2001) At another level， the financial

27、markets have evolved to the point that financial instruments can be combined with a debt issue to unbundle financial price from other risks inherent in the process of raising capital For example， by coupling their bond issues with a swap， issuing firms are able to separate interest rate risk from tr

28、aditional credit risk (Arak， Goodman & Rones， 1988) Innovations in financial-contracting technology (futures， options， and other contractual agreements) have played a central role in this development by expanding the opportunities for risk sharing， lowering transaction costs， and reducing informatio

29、n and agency costs (Chance， 2001) The extraordinary growth in the use of derivatives and the huge proliferation of new financial products and markets，have made possible the creation of an increasing number of layers of financial intermediation that are required to capture the benefits of advances in

30、 finance By increasing the number of financing channels and better opportunities for swapping， sharing and spreading risks， more efficient financial systems have emerged in many countries (Blommestein， 2000) 译文 财务 风险管理在数字经济时代的未来趋势和挑战 资料来源 : http:/www.emerald ins 作者： 史蒂芬李 在本文中对 财务 风险管理的未来趋势和挑战进行考虑。首

31、先，评估历史的发展和 财务 风险管理的现状。然后，讨论 金融业 在数字经济时代的主要特点。据认为，技术创新，特别是在计算机和通信方面，将继续对 财务 风险管理的未来发展具有重要影响。根据过去和目前的 财务 风险管理以及 金融业 的总体趋势，对数字经济 时代 的 财务 风险管理的未来趋势和挑战进行了讨论。最后，给出它对 金融 机构，公司和一些新兴经济体的影响。 风险仍是不确定的古老的定义。对于风险已经有许多不同的定义。然而，对风险概念的定义都有共同之处，见 Gao（ 2001） 更详细的讨论 。在经营一家企业的过程中，决策是在存在风险的 情况下做出的 。一个决策者 将面临 两种 风险类型中的任何

32、一种 。一些风险是 与 企业的 性质相关 ，并作为未来销售的不确定性或投入的费用等事项 进行 处理。这些风险被称为商业风险。另一个是随着利率 、 汇率 、 股票价格和商品价格等因素的不确定性的 一类风险的交易 。 这 类被称为 财务 风险。 大多数企业习惯于接受商业风险，如未来销售的不确定性。事实上，商业风险和潜在回报的接受度是自由市场经济的基础。但是， 财务 风险是一个不同的对象，因为企业往往不习惯于接受和管理他们。处于瘫痪不确定性的利率波动可以削弱一个企业以合理的成本获得融资的能力。企业在国外市场运作有良好的销售业绩并且货币能力强的才可以进行抵消。管理者的投资组合每天都是变幻莫测的，有时它

33、在看似非理性的 金融 市场中进行交易。这些例子清楚地表明， 财务 风险对于许多企业来说都是很重要的。 在应对不断增长的 财务 风险， 过去 20 年来各种衍生产品（如 掉期）已经 被开发出来 ，他们现在广泛地被大型 公司 ， 金融 机构，专业投资者和 个人 使用。某些类型的衍生工具，积极在公开市场 上交易 ，类似 于 股票交易。 然而 大多数的衍生工具 在私人交易中产生。 正确使用衍生工具至关重要 ，因此 创造了一个全新的活动称为 财务 风险管理。 财务 风险管理是 制定 一个公司的 期望 风险水平， 识别 公司目前 的风险水平，然后运用 衍生产品或其他 财务 工具 来 以调整风险的实际水平

34、使其达到 理想的风险水平 的过程 （如见 Chance， 2000 年）。风 险管理也催生了一个 可以 提供给 使最终用户采取相反立场 属于公 司的或是投资基金的 衍生产品 的 全新 金融 机构 。 因在九十年代发生了一系列重大的财务风险管理灾难，对财务风险管理的需求越加强烈。在这些事件中，个人或子公司建立了巨大职务，但却缺乏高级管理知识或者是母公司的支持。当风险变坏的时候这些公司受到了非常大的损失。其中最值得注意的这些案件分别为（见如 Dowd， 1998）： 德国金属。 德国金属公司下属的一家美国子公司 ，企图建立 一些大型的原油期货合约地位，目的是使已经出售的长期契约套期保值。 1993

35、 年 ， 石油价格急剧下降导致了 非常大的损失，德国母公司进行干预 清理剩 余的期货。最终的亏损额为 13 亿美元。 奥兰治县。县司库， Bob Citron， 在高杠杆衍生工具中投入了大量的投资联营。 实际上 它是一个利息率很低的大赌注。 在 1994 年 ， 利率上升造成 投资联营17 亿美元 的 巨大损失 ，从而导致了县的 破产。 巴林银行。 Nick Lesson， 一名 交易员 工作于巴林在 新加坡 的 子公司。 他 擅自建立了庞大的期货及期权。 其涉及的金额 大大超过了银行的资本，在 1995年 2月 这些不利的市场走势导致银行 被迫宣布破产 。 银行最终损失约 13亿美元。 住友

36、商事株式会社。 1996 年 6 月，住友 商事 宣布了一项 达 18 亿美元的损失。这些损 失 是由一项 已经累积了 长达 10 年的 未经授权的交易 造成的。这场交易是由首席交易员 滨中泰男 负责的铜交易 ，他曾设法掩盖 事实 。 在这每一个事件中，损失远超过 10 亿美元。不过， 在类似的案件中 也有许多较小的损失。这些广为宣传的灾害加 快 了进行 风险管理实践 的速度 。因此，许多风险控制措施以及诸如 “ 风险价值 ” （ VaR）的概念被引入 用于 防止此类灾害 发生 （ Tortoriello， 2000）。 在今天的数字经济 时代 ，计算机和通信技术 迅速发展 。这将 给 财务

37、风险管理继续带来新的挑战和的新机遇。 财务 风险管理的新产品将继续增长。例如，电子商务 的 迅速发展要求新的 金融 产品 来 管理电子商务的风险，如见李（ 2001年）。在本论文中，我们试图 阐明 财务 风险管理的未来趋势和挑战，以及它对 金融 机构，企业和新兴经济体的影响。 在 20 世纪 80 年代和 90 年代 的 二十多年 里 ，公司 面临了越来越多在 价格风险 方面的 挑战 Chance（ 2001） 。 举例来说，汇率的变化可以产生强大的竞争对手 ； 同样商品价格的波动可以驱 使投入 价格 达到某一点即使替代产品对于 终端用户 来说更实惠的 地步。它不再足以成为 有着 最先进的生产

38、技术，最便宜的劳动力供给或最好的营销队伍 的 公司 ； 价格波动甚至可以 使 企业运作良好。 由于这些挑战 和由 Blacks and Scholes（ 1973）和 Merton（ 1973）出版 的 期权定价模式 理论的突破 ，在过去 20 年里一系列 金融 工具和战略得到了进化。仅举几例，在控制原材料价格风险变化方面，掉期和远期日益显得更加受欢迎。在信贷风险管理价格变动方面，风险信贷衍生工具，包括互惠信贷，信贷利差期权等广泛被使用。举例子，在澳大利亚期权市场的迅速发展，清楚地显示在图 1。 图 1 澳大利亚期权市场 在一个层面上，目前存在的 金融 工具，允许将价格风险直接转移给更愿意接受

39、这种风险的第三人。例如，随着外汇期货合约的发展，美国的出口商可以将其外汇风险转移到企业外部的接触方 或管理外汇风险业务 的 公司 ，这样 出 口商就可以自由地专注于核心业务。对于现有的具体的衍生产品，我们指的Smithson（ 1998）与 Chance（ 2001）。 在另一个层面上， 金融 市场已经发展到 金融 工具可 以 与债务问 题结合起来 ，在处理上升资本过程中的其他固有风险里对 金融 价格进行分类定价 。例如，通过交换债券发行，发行企业可以从传统的信贷风险 中分离 利率（ (Arak， Goodman & Rones， 1988） 。 财务 契约技术的创新（期货，期权和其他合同协议）在扩大对风险分担，降低交易的成本，降低信息与代理的成本（ Chance， 2001） 等机会的发展中扮演了一个核心角色。对衍生工具 的使用不断增加 和新的 金融 产品和市场巨大的扩散 ，许多 金融 调节层被创造出来用以获取 因 金融 方面的 进步 而 带来的好处。 通过增加融资渠道 的数量 和更好交换，共享和分散风险的机会，许多国家 出现了 更有效的 财务控制 体系（ Blommestein， 2000） 。