FDI对中国经济的影响【外文翻译】.doc

1、 外文翻译 原文 The impact of FDI on the Chinese economy Material Source: The world economy, U.S. Economic Times (2007.6.) Author: J. Bruce CASS Institute of World Economics and Politics Yu Yongding at CASS International Forum on the fourth gave his speech to the World Bank presented the report of some of

2、the major FDI research point of view, the main contents include: China, the trend of FDI inflows, structure of FDI inflows and Chinas horizontal comparison with other developing countries; China, the main determinant of attracting FDI; FDI on Chinas economy; Policy of China to attract foreign invest

3、ment the four parts of the main content. First, the basic characteristics of Chinas FDI inflows and International Comparison As a starting point for research, Yu Yongding, first introduced in China since the 20th century, 90 years of total FDI inflow characteristics and structural features, particul

4、arly the source of FDI inflows into China and FDI inflows structural changes in industry structure changes. Source of FDI inflows into China changes in the structure. 80 years, Chinas FDI mainly from Hong Kong. Into the 90s, Chinas FDI inflow source of great changes in the structure of Hong Kong, Ch

5、ina, Taiwan and Singapore, some Chinese regions (or countries) despite the FDI to China to keep a larger scale, but in the overall FDI accounted for only to 50% lower relative importance; and from the United States, Japan, Europe and some other developed countries, FDI in the 90 years after the deve

6、lopment of a very prominent, the relative importance has gradually improved. FDI inflows changes in industrial structure also obvious. FDI from Hong Kong 80 years mainly in the real estate sector, small labor-intensive industries into the manufacturing sector. After 90 years, FDI in all sectors to t

7、he overall rapid expansion, most concentrated in the manufacturing sector, the total FDI inflows reached 60%. Among manufacturing FDI inflows, there is a significant change is the shift from the previous labor-intensive industry, the processing industry. If you make international comparisons, will f

8、ind that FDI in capital formation in China accounts for roughly 10%, maintaining the average level in developing countries; Chinas FDI stock in the share of CDP is higher than in developing countries average, the average level of developing countries about 30%, while China is close to half.Although

9、FDI inflows into China mostly in manufacturing, but from the International Monetary Fund study shows FDI inflows into China, and the degree of industrial clustering is not very high compared to other countries. Second, China has attracted major determinants of FDI In theory, a country FDI inflows ca

10、n be divided into push factors (external factors) and pull factors (internal factors), is sometimes difficult to distinguish between these two factors. On the pull factors from China, on the whole, driving FDI flows into China are mainly five factors, namely low-cost skilled labor, a relatively comp

11、lete infrastructure, preferential policies for FDI, Chinas huge market potential and stable macroeconomic environment. Attract FDI into China was the ultimate driving force depends on the profits of multinational corporations to bring FDI, or is cross-period profits. 90 years, the profitability of F

12、DI in China brought about 13% -14%, with Brazil, Mexico, Turkey and other emerging market economies was flat, but much higher than 6% in India. The profits of multinational companies from China are increasing, FDI in China in 1996 profits of about 60 billion U.S. dollars, in 2002 reached 270 billion

13、 U.S. dollars. FDI inflows into China to support another important factor, though not all companies can make money to invest in China, but more and more multinational companies in China started a profit. Third, FDI impact on Chinas economy FDI for the Chinese economy can be roughly divided into four

14、 categories: job creation, trade expansion, technological upgrading and promoting economic growth. Job creation, FDI in the last period of employment for the promotion of China has played an active role. 1986-1990, 1991-1997-1996, three during 1999, 60,000 foreign-funded enterprises were created, 37

15、5 million, 720,000 new jobs, respectively, all current jobs accounted for 0.43%, 9.62% , 6%. And FDI in China compared to the status of capital accumulation, FDI in the creation of employment is not very satisfactory. Need to recognize that foreign-funded enterprises in creating jobs, but also under

16、mined by competition from the state-owned enterprises provided the original job. From UNCTADs research shows that transnational corporations and local companies tend to use more capital-intensive than the technology, therefore, FDIs contribution to the creation of new jobs moderate. Foreign export g

17、rowth is an important driving force. In 1985, foreign-funded enterprises involved in export to China accounted for only 1% of total exports, recently, this figure reached 45% -50%. Export of foreign-funded enterprises mainly in the manufacturing sector, an example in 2000, foreign exports of manufac

18、turing products, foreign-funded enterprises reached 82.99% of total exports, accounting for 40% of Chinas total exports. Needs to be noted that, although foreign-funded enterprises contributed to exports, but before 1997 for the overall impact of Chinas foreign trade is the trade deficit. If you tak

19、e into account the large number of foreign profits of the future return, foreign companies may be the future of Chinas international balance of payments will bring huge black hole. FDI for technological progress is very complex and difficult to measure. Some research shows that companies entering Ch

20、ina, 42% of companies use the companys most advanced technology, while the other 58% of enterprises use relatively advanced technology or is the original technology. Compared with multinationals and domestic enterprises in the production technology, management and international marketing networks ha

21、ve the advantage, therefore, is bound to bring some technology transfer and technology spillover. Upgrading the industrial structure of China and the rapid changes in export structure reflected this. According to the economic growth model, FDI impact on economic growth mainly through two ways, first

22、, the contribution of FDI on capital accumulation, followed by the FDI contribution to total factor productivity. Measure the contribution of FDI on capital accumulation, the greatest difficulty lies in removing the FDI crowding-out effect on capital accumulation. Most gathering of foreign-funded en

23、terprises in 10 industries, accounting for the proportion of the total assets of foreign capital reached 10.18%, broadly in line with other countries in East Asia the situation unchanged. Given Chinas high savings rate, and FDI for the crowding out of capital accumulation, FDI through capital accumu

24、lation on economic growth is limited. The contribution of FDI to economic growth may be more reflected in the total factor productivity growth for the area. Foreign scholars estimate that 90 years, FDI by improving the total factor productivity contributed to Chinas GDP growth reached a 2-2.5 percen

25、t growth in total factor productivity in China for half thanks to FDI. More than just broad-brush analysis of the impact of FDI on the Chinese economy.Overall, its hard to be very precise evaluation of the economic impact of FDI for China, this study also need more detailed and comprehensive researc

26、h support. Fourth, Chinas Policy of attracting foreign investment China is a need for independent economic system, since to have autonomy, it is necessary to reconsider the development of foreign investment. Results of the past to attract foreign investment policy to be sure, but the development to

27、a new stage, the need to change the situation. Current policies to attract foreign investment there are many problems that need attention, such as domestic funds, the fair treatment of foreign investment: foreign trade monopoly in the Chinese market problems. Of particular note is that China has att

28、racted a lot of FDI, most of these capital profits are now converted into re-investment, so the balance of payments is not too great. If the profits of foreign companies to put more outward transfer, balance of payments continued to face a giant pressure. Required to repay the return of foreign capi

29、tal must make up a large trade surplus. Trade surplus, current account deficit is typical of colonial semi-colonial countries, the purpose of work is to further the external debt. 译文 FDI 对中国经济的影响 资料来源 :美国世界经济时报 （ 2007.6） 作者： J. Bruce 中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所所长余永定 在中国社会科学院第四届国际论坛演讲中发表了他提交给世界银行的 FDI 研究报告的一些主

30、要观点，主要内容包括：中国 FDI 流入的趋势、结构以及中国 FDI 流入情况与其它发展中国家的横向比较；中国吸引 FDI 的主要决定因素； FDI 对中国经济的影响；中国吸引外资政策的思考等四部分主要内容。 一、中国 FDI 流入的基本特征与国际比较 作为研究的出发点，余永定首先介绍了 20 世纪 90 年代以来中国 FDI流入的总量特征与结构特征，尤其是流入中国 FDI 的来源地结构变化以及 FDI流入的产业结构变化。流入中国 FDI 的来源地结构发 生变化。 80 年代，中国的FDI 主要来自香港。进入 90 年代以来，中国的 FDI 流入来源地结构发生了很大变化，中国香港、台湾以及新加

31、坡等一些华人地区 (或国家 )尽管对中国的 FDI保持较大的规模，但是在 FDI 总体中仅占到 50%，相对重要性降低了；而来自美国、日本、欧洲等一些发达国家的 FDI 在 90 年代以后有非常突出的发展，相对重要性也在逐步提高 .FDI 流入的产业结构变化也非常明显。 80 年代来自香港的 FDI主要集中在房地产部门，少部分流入制造业部门的劳动密集型产业。90 年代以后， FDI 迅速向各个部门全面扩张，最集中的是制 造业部门，达到了FDI 总流入的 60%。制造业流入的 FDI 当中，还有一个明显的变化是从以往的劳动密集型行业转向了加工行业。 如果做国际比较，会发现中国 FDI 在资本形成

32、中所占的比重大约是10%，保持在发展中国家的平均水平上；中国 FDI 存量在 CDP 中所占的比重则高于发展中国家的平均水平，发展中国家的平均水平大约在 30%，而中国则接近一半。尽管流入中国的 FDI 多数集中在制造业，但来自国际货币基金组织的研究显示 FDI 流入中国的产业集聚程度和其它国家相比并不是非常高。 二、中国吸引 FDI 的主要决定因素 从理论上看，一个国家 FDI 流入可以区分为推动因素 (外部因素 )和拉动因素 (内部因素 )，这两个因素有时候很难区分。关于来自中国国内的拉动因素，总体来看，拉动 FDI 流入中国的主要有五大因素，分别是低成本的熟练劳动力、较完备的基础设施建设

33、、对于 FDI 的优惠政策、中国巨大的市场潜力以及稳定的宏观经济环境。 吸引 FDI流入中国的最终驱动力量还是取决于 FDI带给跨国公司的利润，或者说是跨时期利润。 90 年代，中国带给 FDI 的利润率大约在 13% 14%，与巴西、墨西哥、土耳其等新兴市场经济国家持平，但是大大高于印度的 6%。跨国公司从中国得到的利润不断增多， 1996 年 FDI 在中国获得的利润大约在60 亿美元， 2002 年达到了 270 亿美元。支持 FDI 流入中国的另一重要因素是，尽管不是所有的公司到中国投资都能赚钱，但是，越来越多的跨国公司在中国开始了盈利。 三、 FDI 对中国经济的影响 FDI 对于中

34、国经济的影响，大致可以区分为四类：创造就业、贸易扩张、技术升级以及推动经济增长。 创造就业方面，在过去时间里 FDI 对于推动中国的就业发挥了积极的作用。 1986 1990 年、 1991 1996 年、 1997 1999 年三个期间，外资企业分别创造了 6 万、 375 万、 72 万个新增就业，分别占到了当期全部新增就业的0.43%、 9.62%、 6%。与 FDI 在中国资本积累中的地位相比， FDI 在创造就业方面并不十分理想。需要认识到，外资企业在创造就业的同时，也通过竞争破坏了原先由国有企业提供的就业。来自联合国贸发会的研究显示，跨国公司与当地公司相比更倾向于使用资金密集型的技

35、术，因此， FDI 对创造新增就业的贡献适中。 外资企业是中国出口增长的重要推动力量。 1985 年，外资企业涉及的出口仅占到中国出口总额的 1%，近期，这个数字达到了 45% 50%。外资企业的出口主要集中在制造业，以 2000 年为例，外资企业制造业产品的出口达到了外资企业总出口的 82.99%，占中国总出口的 40%。需要特别指出的是，外资企业尽管对出口做出了贡献，但是在 1997 年之前对于中国对外贸易的总体影响是贸易赤字。如果考虑到未来外资企业的大量利润回流，外资企业可能会给中国未来的国际收支带来巨大的黑洞。 FDI 对于技术进步的影响非常复杂，而且难以度量。一些调查研究显示，跨国公

36、司进入中国后，有 42%的企业使用了企业最先进的技术，而另外 58%的企业则使用相对先进技术或 者是原始技术。跨国公司与国内企业相比，在生产技术、管理以及国际营销网络上具备优势，因此，势必会带来一些技术转移与技术外溢。中国工业结构的升级与出口结构的迅速变化都反映了这一点。 根据经济增长模型， FDI 对于经济增长的影响主要通过两个方面，首先是 FDI 对资本积累的贡献，其次是 FDI 对全要素生产率的贡献。衡量 FDI对资本积累的贡献，最大的困难在于剔除 FDI 对资本积累的挤出效应。在外资企业最集聚的 10 个行业中，外资总资产占的比重达到了 10.18%，大致与东亚其它国家的情况持平。考虑

37、到中国较高的储蓄率，以及 FDI 对于资本积累的挤出效应， FDI 通过资本积累对经济增长的贡献有限。 FDI 对于经济增长的贡献可能更多地体现在对于全要素生产率的提高方面。国外学者估计， 90 年代， FDI通过提高全要素生产率对中国 GDP 增长的贡献达到了 2 2.5 个百分点，中国全要素生产率增长的一半要归功于 FDI。 以上，仅是粗线条地分析了 FDI 对中国经济的影响。总体而言，目前还很难非常精确地评价 FDI 对于中国经济的影响，这项研究还需要更多细致、全面的研究工作支持。 四、对中国吸引外資政策的思考 中国是一个需要相对独立的经济体系 ，既然要有自主性，就要对发展外资重新考虑。过去吸引外资政策的成绩要肯定，但发展到了一个新的阶段，需要根据形势有所变化。目前吸引外资政策中需要注意的问题有很多，比如内资、外资的公平待遇问题：外资在中国市场的行业垄断问题等。特别需要注意的是，中国目前吸引了大量的 FDI，这些资本目前把大部分的利润都转化成了再投资，所以对国际收支的影响还不算很大。如果外资企业把更多的利润向外转移，国际收支平衡会面临持续的巨人压力。为了偿还外资要求的利润回报，必须有大量的贸易顺差弥补。贸易顺差、经常项目逆差是殖民地半殖民地国家的典型 特征，干活的目的就是为了还外债 。