Impact of the exchange rate on export volumes【外文翻译】.doc

1、 外文翻译 原文 Impact of the exchange rate on export volumes Material Source: http:/ Author: Mark Smith Influences on export volumes: the exchange rate and other factors The quantities of exports that are supplied and demanded are influenced by a variety of factors. All else being equal, the more goods an

2、d services will be produced for export the higher the real return on exporting, relative to returns from other uses for the resources used in exporting. The exchange rate influences both the supply of and demand for export volumes. However, as many of our exports are priced in foreign currencies, ch

3、anges in the New Zealand dollar exchange rate do not automatically affect the demand for our exports. Also, some firms may have the ability to charge different prices to the norm. This is usually associated with the degree to which a product is differentiated from other products. For example, export

4、ers serving niche markets may be able keep their prices in New Zealand dollars relatively constant, despite a rise in the exchange rate, and face little change in demand. In contrast, dairy products and most agricultural commodities are comparatively undifferentiated, and their prices are determined

5、 in world markets. In the short term, physical constraints (such as inputs of capital and labour) and pre-arranged contractual obligations affect the ability of exporters to respond to price changes and changes in demand conditions. For many agricultural exports, climatic conditions are a major dete

6、rminant of supply in the short run: both droughts and floods can materially affect production. Over a longer period of time these constraints are less binding, with producers having greater scope to adjust both the quantities of capital and labour used, and the way in which those quantities are comb

7、ined (hence affecting productivity). However, even in the long run there are still constraints that affect the capacity to supply, such as finite quantities of land and, in the agricultural sector, biological constraints. An alternative to exporting is to produce more goods and services for consumpt

8、ion in the domestic market. However, given New Zealands comparatively small size there is limited scope for local producers to divert production away from exporting. The demand for New Zealands exports is governed by the market size for our products (influenced by foreign income and population growt

9、h) and how well we can compete in world markets. Foreign demand is also a major determinant of the overseas price for most of New Zealands exports, such as agricultural produce and commodity manufactures. Changes to international supply conditions and consumer preferences also have an influence on t

10、he world price of our exports. Access to markets is also important, particularly in the agricultural sector. Tariffs, quotas and other trade protection measures can significantly affect the quantity of exports that New Zealand can sell. Differences in production, promotional, and transportation cost

11、s relative to those of other suppliers affect the competitiveness of New Zealands exporting sector. Since New Zealand is geographically remote from many of its export markets, exporters need to be particularly clever and efficient to offset this disadvantage. A useful summary measure of our competit

12、iveness is the real exchange rate, which is basically the nominal exchange rate multiplied by the ratio of local and foreign prices. In effect, the real exchange rate is the price of goods and services relative to the price in other countries.Hence a rise in our real exchange rate means our products

13、 are more expensive compared to those sold overseas, and are therefore less competitive. An appreciation of the New Zealand dollar, other things remaining the same, will lift our real exchange rate, thereby lowering competitiveness and eventually affecting export volumes. A rise in the exchange rate

14、 will also affect exporters returns, making exporting from New Zealand less profitable, and this too will affect volumes if firms cut back on, or even stop, exporting. Quantifying the exchange rate impact on export volumes In this section we discuss recent work at the Reserve Bank aimed at quantifyi

15、ng the impact of the real exchange rate on export volumes. We look at the speed and magnitude of export volume responsiveness to the real TWI, and in some sectors, to changes in real bilateral exchange rates. We also use an alternative approach, looking at how export volumes change in response to do

16、mestic export prices, rather than to changes in the real exchange rate. Domestic export prices are the prices that exporters receive in New Zealand dollars and therefore they incorporate the effects of changes in the nominal exchange rate. There are several complications involved in identifying the

17、effect of the real exchange rate effect on export volumes. First, we have to distinguish the impact of the real exchange rate from the impact of other determinants of export volumes. Secondly, volatility in export volumes makes it difficult for econometric estimates to fully capture the effect of th

18、e exchange rate. In other words, the shocks that hit export volumes make it difficult to detect the systemic variation in export volumes that is due to the exchange rate. Thirdly, there are always some doubts as to how accurate the export volume measures themselves are. Determining export volumes re

19、quires either reliable volume indicators, or accurate deflators with which to adjust nominal values. It is possible that the errors relating to volume measures, particularly for services, may be large enough to prevent us from accurately identifying any changes in volumes due to exchange rate moveme

20、nts. Export volume trends In addition to analysing the effects of the real exchange rate on aggregate exports, we have also looked at the effects of the real exchange rate on different export groups. Over the last fifteen years or so growth in non-primary export volumes (particularly manufacturing e

21、xport volumes) has generally been faster than growth in primary based export volumes. Within the broad primary category, volume growth from forestry (excluding crude materials) and dairy has been considerably higher than growth from meat and seafood. A straightforward way to examine the relationship

22、 between the exchange rate and export volumes in different sectors is to look at cross-correlations. These indicate the degree to which the exchange rate and export volumes have moved together over time but only provide a partial analysis as they do not take into account the other possible influence

23、s on export volumes. Exchange rate sensitivity: aggregate exports Results for aggregate exports suggest a marginally higher degree of sensitivity of export volumes to the real exchange rate than previously estimated at the Bank. While the export volume elasticity is still comparatively small this im

24、plies a fairly sizeable impact on volumes given the large cyclical movements observed in the exchange rate. Our results indicate that if the level of the real TWI were to rise by 10 per cent relative to its medium-term equilibrium this would result in export volumes being 1.4 per cent lower relative

25、 to their trend after 18 months. The lag at which the peak effect takes place - 18 months - is consistent with previous Reserve Bank findings. Lower domestic export prices (which may result from a higher exchange rate) are also found to lower future aggregate export volumes by approximately the same

26、 magnitude and with a lag of 18 months. The updated estimates also suggest that the real exchange rate accounts for only a relatively small portion (less than 20 per cent) of the total cyclical variation in aggregate export volumes. Exchange rate sensitivity: export sectors Although a high exchange

27、rate tends to dampen total export volumes, the impact is unevenly spread across sectors. Non-primary export volumes tend to react more significantly to the real exchange rate than primary exports. This largely reflects the higher degree of exchange rate responsiveness of exports of services volumes,

28、 which are approximately three times more sensitive to the real exchange rate than aggregate export volumes. The lags with which the real exchange rate affects volumes differ by sector. Exports of services volumes respond to the real exchange rate with a lag of 18 months. However, it only takes abou

29、t a year for the real exchange rate to have an effect on most of our food export volumes. Manufacturing export volumes appear to respond to the real exchange rate with a lag of 12 to 15 months. For most export sectors, the most relevant measure of the real exchange rate appears to be the real TWI. H

30、owever, volumes for dairy exports were better explained by the real NZD/USD bilateral exchange rate. For manufacturing exports the real bilateral NZD/AUD and NZD/USD exchange rates were also influential. Volume sensitivity to changes in domestic export prices, as opposed to changes in the real excha

31、nge rate, is more noticeable for primary exports, with volumes responding to New Zealand dollar export prices with a lag of 18 months. The amount of variation in export volumes attributable to real exchange rate/domestic export price movements differs by sector. Movements in the real exchange rate e

32、xplain the highest proportion of cyclical fluctuations in services, but even here, more than three quarters of the cyclical variation in export volumes is attributable to other influences. Conclusion Empirical investigation finds that the measured elasticity of New Zealands aggregate export volumes

33、to the real New Zealand dollar exchange rate is higher than previously assumed, but is still quite small. However, given the large amplitude of the New Zealand exchange rate cycle this implies quite a substantial impact on volumes. In the September 2003 MPS we incorporated this new evidence into the

34、 Banks macroeconomic model (FPS). Sector evidence shows some variation, with exports of services volumes more sensitive to the real exchange rate than agriculturally-based export volumes. Other influences affecting New Zealands export volumes depend on the sector, with agricultural exports respondin

35、g to world export prices and climatic conditions, and exports of services responding more to world demand. Our view is that the major effect on exporters from the exchange rate is primarily through its effects on incomes rather than export volumes. Ongoing research will attempt to improve our unders

36、tanding of the how the exchange rate impacts on the economy. 译文 Impact of the exchange rate on export volumes 资料来源 : http:/ 作者： Mark Smith 对出口量的影响：汇率和其他因素 出口的 数量，是由多种因素的影响 的 。在其他条件相同时，更多的商品和服务的出口将产生较高的对出口的实际收益 。 汇率即影响了出口贸易中供应量也影响了需求量。然而，由于我们的出口很多都是使用外币来定价，新西兰元的汇率变化不会自动影响我们的出口需求。此外，一些公司可能在一定限额内有能力收取不

37、同的价格。这就是通常决定一个产品是与其他产品有区别的。例如，出口商服务于特定市场或许能够保持相对稳定新西兰元的价格，尽管汇率的上升，面对需求的变化不大。与此相反，奶制品和大多数农产品相对分化，而其价格是由世界市场决定。 从短期来看， 可以通 过物理约束 （如资本和劳动投入）和预先安排的合同义务 来 影响出口商的能力以应对价格的变化和需求条件的变化。对于许多农产品出口，在短期内气候条件是供给的主要决定因素：无论旱灾和水灾 都 会严重影响生产。经过一段较长期间，这些限制条件 的影响力大为降低 ， 同时，生产商有更大的余地来 调整资本和劳动力使用，并 和 其中的数量结合起来（从而影响生产力）的方式生

38、产。然而，即使从长远来看仍然有限制，影响 供给的 能力，如土地供应量有限，农业部门 的限制 ，生物制约因素。 出口的另一种方法是在国内消费市场生产更多的商品和服务。不过，由于新西兰的面 积相对较小，本地生产者产品的内销具有很大的限制。 对新西兰出口的需求是由我们产品的市场规模（按国外收入和人口增长的影响）以及我们在世界市场 的 竞争 方式来决定的 。 国外需求也是 决定大多数 新西兰的出口 产品价格的主要因素 ，例如 农产品和制成品。国际供应条件和消费者喜好的变化也对我国出口 产品的 价格 具有 影响。 市场准入也很重要，特别是在农业部门。关税，配额和其他贸易保护措施，可以显着地影响新西兰 的

39、出口。 相对于其他供应商， 由于 生产，推广，和运输成本的差异 ， 新西兰的出口竞争力 受到了影响 。因为新西兰 作为 出口市场， 在地理上 相对 偏僻， 出口商必须特别聪明，有效地弥补这个缺点。 我们的竞争力的 最 有用 的 措施 是 实际汇率，这基本上是名义汇率 乘以 当地和外国 货币 价格的 比率 。实际上，真正的汇率是商品和服务相对于其他国家的价格。因此，在我们的实际汇率上升意味着我们的产品比销往海外的更加昂贵，因此竞争力较弱。新西兰元升值，剩下的其他事情一样，将提升我们的实际汇率，从而降低了竞争力，并最终影响到出口量。一个汇率的上升也将影响出口商的收益，使得新西兰出口利润减少，这也将

40、影响 出口量，导致 企业削减，甚至停止出口。 汇率对出口量影响的量化显示 在这一节，我们讨论最近 储备银行在量化 实际汇率对 出口量影响方面的工作。我们 观察着 出口量与实际 TWI 接口 的 速度和反应程度，并在一些部门， 注意 实际双边汇率的变化。我们还使用另一种方法， 观察在 产品出口价格 变化时出口量如何变化的，而不是在实际汇率 波动时的变化 。产品出口价格是在新西兰出口商收到美元 的 价格 ， 因此 出口商结合了 名义汇率变化的影响。 有一些表现能够确认实际汇率对出口量的影响。 首先，我 们要区分实际汇率 对出口量的影响和 其他因素 对出口量的 影响。 第二，出口量的波动 使得 捕捉

41、汇率 对经济 的影响 更为困难 。换句话说，出口量 的冲击，使得检测 出口量的 系统 变化是由于汇率 波动引起的更为困难 。 第三，总有一些疑问， 例如 如何准确地定义 出口量 的措施。 确定出口量，要么需要可靠的量的指标，或者准确的平减指数，用以调整标称值。这有关措施可能是错误 的 ，特别是服务数量，可能会足够大，以 预防我们由于汇率的波动而无法找准在册的任何变化。 出口量的趋势 除了分析实际汇率对总出口的影响，我们也看了实际汇率 对 不同的出口群体的影响 。 在过去的 15年左右，在非主要的出口量（特别是制造业出口量）增长普遍快于初级基础的出口量的增长。在宽泛的主要类别，从林业量（不包括原

42、材料）和奶制品增长一直大大高于 肉类和海鲜的增长速度。一个简单的方法来研究之间的汇率和出口量在不同部门的关系是看的交叉关联。这说明在何种程度上，一段时间 内 汇率和出口量都 曾有过联系 ，但只提供了部分的分析，他们没有考虑到其他出口量可能产生的影响。 汇率敏感性：总的出口 总出口的结果显示为出口量 对 实际汇率轻微上升敏感性的程度比以前在银行估计 更高 。虽然出口量弹性仍然 相对 较小 ， 这意味着 鉴于 大周期 汇率 变动的观察，汇率仍具有较大的影响 我们的研究结果表明，相对于其中期平衡如果真正的 TWI 的水平上升到百分之 10 这将导致出口量相对于其后 18 个月的趋势减少百分 之 1.

43、4。在其中的滞后效应发生的高峰 18 个月与以前的储备银行的调查结果一致。降低 港 产品出口价格（这可能 是由 一个较高的汇率导致）也发现总出口降低幅度与 18 个月后的未来大致相同。最新估计数还表明，实际汇率在 总出口量合计周期性变化 中 只占了一个相对较小的部分（少于百分之二十）。 汇率灵敏度：出口部门 虽然高汇率趋向于抑制总出口量，其影响不是均衡分布在各部门。 非主 要的 出口量 对与实际汇率的反应 通常更加显着地高于初级产品出口。这在很大程度上反映了 服务业产品对与汇率的敏感程度 ，大约 是总出口量对与实际汇率敏感程度的 三倍 。 其中的滞后与实际汇率的影响量按部门不同。 服务业的出口

44、对与汇率变动的响应具有 18个月的滞后性。然而，实际汇率的波动影响我们大部分的食品出口仅需大约一年。 制造业出口量出现反应， 需要 12至 15个月 的 滞后于 实际汇率 的变动。 对于大多数出口部门，对实际汇率的最相关的措施，似乎是真正的 TWI接口。然而，纽元 /美元双边汇率更好地解释 了 乳制品出口量 的 现实。纽元 /澳元和纽元 /美元实际双边汇率 对 制造业出口也有影响。 港产品出口价格的变动相对于实际汇率的变化，比主要出口产品表现更显著， 销量响应为 18个月的滞后新西兰美元的出口价格。 按行业的不同出口量总额的变动可归因于实际汇率的变动 /港产品出口价格的变动。 实际汇率 的 变

45、动解释周期性波动在服务 业 的比例最高，但即使在这里，超过四分之三的出口量的周期性变化是由于其他方面的影响。 结论 实证调查发现，新西兰的总出口量的实际测量弹性新西兰元汇率高于以前承担，但仍然相当小。不过，鉴于新西兰汇率大振幅周期 ， 这意味着 总量上 上产生重大影响。 2003 年 9 月 MPS 在此我们加入到银行的宏观经济模型 成立 新的证据（ FPS） 。 有证据表明一些行业的变化， 对与 实际汇率 的敏感 比 以 农业为主的出口量 和以 服务 为主的出口 量的更敏感 。影响新西兰的出口量的影响取决于其他部门，农产品出口应对全球出口价格和气候条件，更多地应对全球需求服务的出口。我们的观点是，对出口商 来说 汇率主要作用是通过它 来 影响出口量，而不是收入。正在进行的研究将试图改善我们的汇率是如何对经济影响的认识率。