软件外包的风险管理—以印度软件出口市场的构造基础为例所做的组合分析【外文翻译】.doc

1、 外文翻译 原文 RISK MANAGEMENT IN SOFTWARE OUTSOURCING A PORTFOLIO ANALYSIS OF INDIAS CASE BASED ON SOFTWARE EXPORT MARKET CONSTITUTION Material Source: Journal of Service Research Author:Weilin Zhao, Chihiro, Watanabe ABSTRACT: India, famous for its software outsourcing service, has achieved high growth

2、rates in software exports in recent ten years. The figure of Indian software export destination shows that the US has been the dominant destination for more than a decade. The US is overall Indias largest customer in this sense. In other words, Indian software export is heavily dependent on the US m

3、arket. Risks exist in software outsourcing market not only for outsourcers but also for software outsourcing service vendors. Thus, risk awareness and risk avoidance, in a word, risk management is undoubtedly very crucial for the sustainable development of software industry. From the perspective of

4、risk management, this paper provides to give some suggestions for software outsourcing service vendors by means of the portfolio analysis of Indias software export market constitution. Though it is a simple two-market portfolio analysis model, the implications are significant for raising outsourcing

5、 service vendors awareness in risk management, future market strategy and industrial development. KEY WORDS: software outsourcing outsourcing risks risk management INTRODUCTION The success story of Indian information technology (IT) industry and IT-related service industry is now acknowledged well.

6、Majority of the success in the sector can be attributed to the conspicuous growth and achievement in software exports. Indias leader role in providing software outsourcing service has been gaining increasing appreciation. According to a report from National Association of Software and Service Compan

7、y (NASSCOM, 2007), service and software exports remain the biggest contributor with 31.3 billion US$ to the total revenue of IT industry as 47.8 billion US $ in 2007. India, famous for its software outsourcing service, has exactly achieved high growth rates in software exports for many years. In ord

8、er to give a comparison, total revenues of the IT industry and software exports in the last four years are demonstrated in Figure 1. It is obvious that Indias exports in software and service have increased rapidly. With contribution to over 50 percent of Indias total IT industrys revenues, they have

9、 been playing a crucial role for the development of Indias IT industry. Indias competitiveness in exports of software and outsourcing service has drawn the keen interest for many researches leading to intensive discussions. In research about location attractiveness index on making offshore decisions

10、, the factors making countries attractive as potential locations for outsourcing were compared and India remains the top player in 25 countries with the highest score in “People skills and availability“ which was evaluated from cumulative business process experience and skills, labor force availabil

11、ity, education and language and attrition rates. It is no doubt that important factors like lower cost, good quality, and abundant human resources with excellent IT skill and fluent English communication ability have become the general attractiveness of India when it comes to outsourcing to India. T

12、he beginning of developing IT industry and the achievement were not a sudden decision and a surprising result. Since the 1990s, with its liberalization and deregulation, India has made significant progress in its economic growth. To promote the activities of IT industry and increase IT adoption has

13、been an important national policy for India to compete in the global economy. Software, as a decisive sector in IT, its importance with the ubiquitous characteristics as rapid diffusion and application has been recognized all over the world. Thus, the Indian software industry as a successful example

14、 under its economic reforms, has attracted the world attention. Software outsourcing has been the key trump card for total exports and revenues of the Indian IT industry. To most extent, its conspicuous growth in software outsourcing has been with the synergy effect of the progress of the American I

15、T revolution, as the US is the main export destination for India. It seems not so interesting to summarize that Indias software outsourcing services are mainly exported to the US, which is now a common sense. Table 1 demonstrates that the US has been the dominant destination for India over the last

16、decade. Outsourcing Risks Outsourcing risks are factually nothing new. (Aubert et al., 2001) reviewed that While it can lead to lower costs, economies of scale, access to specialized resources, and new business ventures, (Huff, 1991;Gupta, 1992), outsourcing can have unwanted outcomes such as escala

17、ting costs, diminishing service levels, and loss of expertise, to name a few (Gack 1994; Earl 1996; Hirschheim 2000). The literature discusses three types of risks as operational risks, strategic risks and composite risks are reviewed. Researches on outsourcing risks can be summarized into various a

18、spects including managerial factors, technical factors and some issues about data security or data privacy. In managerial part, with more firms outsourcing their software/project development or back-up service, issues associated with outsourcing management have attracted a lot of research attention.

19、 Trust is also one of the well-discussed issues in software outsourcing. Since trust is considered to be very fragile in outsourcing relationships (Oza, 2006), risks behind the trust maintenance cannot be neglected. Except trust, While there are several sources of risk in outsourced development, a m

20、ajor factor leading to dissatisfaction occurs when the technical team and the business client do not share a clear vision of the product and communicate that vision to the development vendor. DISCUSSION It is known that to put all the eggs in one basket is very dangerous. It is the same as the risk

21、in a portfolio of diverse several ones is less than the risk in only single one in stock investments. Diversification can reduce the risk to some degree and then more benefits can be reaped by diversification. However, only diversification is not enough to avoid all risks. Different diversification

22、decisions can lead to different results of risk and return. We believe that there should be one best portfolio with good balance in lower risk and more beneficial return. The above analysis is a two-market object analysis with the simplest portfolio model. The purpose is to extract implications and

23、suggestions that software outsourcing service vendors should not neglect. Risks and risk management will be a good contributor to the success of outsourcing. Since the relationship between risks and returns can also be illustrated, decision-makings can be done according to different portfolios based

24、 on different principles from the perspective of risk exposure and risk averse. Risk issues have been studied in many fields, especially in capital market, finance, insurance and management. Recently, it has become a hot topic in IT fields relevant to project management, software development and out

25、sourcing service. However, in many cases, outsourcers profit and risk loss are focused, while the part for vendors is always neglected. With Indias case, this paper attempted to provide some analyses of risk from the perspective of outsourcing service vendors and figure out the optimal ratio for sof

26、tware exports between the US and European markets that are the biggest two software export destinations for India. The limitation of the research is the scope of the analysis, as the analytical objectives in this paper were restricted to only two markets as the US and the Europe. It may be better if

27、 the analysis can be applied to all export destinations to find out the optimal portfolio and provide more suggestions in export destination market strategy for India. However, on one hand, it is difficult to collect the exact data for all export destinations, because there are usually no detailed d

28、ata for countries except the US and the Europe. On the other hand, as we consider that Indias advantage in software outsourcing service is mainly on the US and European markets, the research focus on the two markets could provide more practical suggestions. Risk awareness, avoidance and management i

29、n outsourcing are very crucial for the sustainable and healthy growth of software industry. Utilizing the simplest portfolio analysis model, the optimal portfolio between the two markets was figured out for India. It is concluded that the best export ratio to the US is about 52%. However, we can see

30、 from Table 1 that export ratios to the US were all over 60% with increasing trend to 70%.Though the result is not absolutely in line with real practice in some cases, it is a fact that Indias software industry has been more dependent on the US market for years, which incorporates unavoidable risks

31、from many aspects as mentioned in the section of background. India should reconsider its market strategy in exports and this kind of relationship with the US. It does not mean that India can neglect the US market or decline the customers from the US, on the contrary, it is very important to go on ke

32、eping the good partnership with the US because of its main customers position for India. In the meantime, to strengthen its domestic market, tap new foreign markets and positively improve the market shares are also very crucial. The undeveloped domestic market has been the development bottleneck for

33、 the Indian software industry and made the risk in software exports much dangerous. India can enlarge the domestic market demand by appropriate policy incentives and indispensable institutional changes. For foreign markets, India should pay more attention to the potential market resources in the Eur

34、ope and take activities in other countries to make new market share by its well-known outsourcing service quality and talents. All these efforts are believed to reduce the risks and guarantee the sustainable development of the Indian software industry. 译文 软件外包的风险管理 以印度软件出口市场的构造基础为例所做的组合分析 资料来源 :科学研究

35、杂志 作者 :赵威林 ,池路 ,瓦塔纳波 摘要：印度 ,以软件外包服务闻名于世 ,近十年在软件出口方面获得了高增长率，印度软件出口的目的地的数据表明美国已经占目的地中的统治地位超过十年之久。在整体上美国是印度最大的客户，换言之 ,印度软件出口严重依赖美国市场。软件外包市场中存在的风险 ,不仅是外包者，同时也是软件外包服务供应商。因此 ,风险意识和风险规避措施 ,一言以蔽之 ,风险管理对软件产业的可持续发展是非常关键的。 本文 从风险管理角度出发 , 通过对印度软件出口市场构造的组合分析 ,为软件外包服务供应商提供了一些建议。尽管这是一个 简单的两个市场投资组合分析模型，但对于显著提高外包服务供

36、应商的风险管理意识，未来的市场策略和工业的发展却具有重大意义。 关键词：软件外包 外包风险 风险管理 简介： 印度的信息技术 (IT)行业及 IT相关服务行业目前公认是很好的。大多数部门的成功可以归结为在软件出口上的惹人注目的成长和成就。印度的领袖角色提供软件外包服务已经越来越被欣赏。根据一份从印度国家软件和服务公司协会的报告显示 (NASSCOM, 2007)在 2007 年，服务和软件出口在 IT 产业的 47.8亿美元的总收入中占有 31.3 亿美元，保持最大的贡献 。以软件外包服务闻名于世的印度 ,在软件出口方面达到高增长率已有多年了。为了便于比较 ,在过去四年中的 IT 产业的总收入

37、和软件出口额已在图 1 中列出。 很明显 ,印度软件和服务的出口迅猛增加，贡献了印度的百分之五十以上的IT 行业的收入总额 , 他们在印度的 IT 行业的发展中扮演了了至关重要的角色。印度在软件出口和外包服务方面的竞争力已经引起了许多研究者的兴趣，他们展开了彻底地讨论。在离岸决策上关于地点吸引力指数的研究 ， 这个因素使国家作为外包的潜在地点积极地进行了比较，印度仍然是外包的顶级国家，印度在 25 个国家中在“以人为 本”的技巧上拥有最高得分，那是从累积的业务流程的经验和技能中进行有效性评估 , 劳动力的可用性、教育、语言和磨损率，如成本低、质量好、人力资源丰富和良好的信息技术和流利的英语沟通

38、能力已成为印度的吸引力，使许多人将业务外包到印度。这些都是毫无疑问的重要因素。 信息产业发展之初 ,成就不是一个突然的决策和一个令人惊讶的结果。 20世纪 90 年代以来 ,由于其自由化和放松管制 ,印度在其经济增长方面已经取得了重大的进展。促进 IT 产业的活动的增加和增加 IT 采用已成为印度参与全球经济竞争的一个重要的国家政策。软件 ,作为在 IT 中 的一个决定性的行业 ,其重要性和无处不在的特点及应用的迅速扩散已经遍布世界各地。因此 ,印度软件产业在它的经济改革上作为一个成功的例子，已经引起了世界的注意，软件外包已成为印度 IT 产业总出口和收入的王牌， 从绝大多数程度上来讲，在软件

39、外包方面的 显著增长 ,已和美国 IT 改革的进程起到协同效应。因为美国是印度最主要的出口目的地 。 印度的软件外包服务主要出口到美国的结论似乎并不那么有趣 ,如今却已成为一个常识，表 1 表明美国在过去的十年里已成为印度的主导目的地。 外包风险： 外包风险实际上不是什么新奇的事物（阿本特等， 2001）讲述了它会导致成本降低 , 规模经济 ,获得专业资源 ,新的商业活动 ,（哈浮， 1991；伽塔， 1992），外包会产生不想要的结果 ,例如费用的升级，服务水平的逐渐缩小和专业知识的损失，在此列举几项（伽克 1994；萼儿 1996；海启木 2000）。文献讨论了三种类型的风险 ,论述了经营

40、风险 ,战略风险和复合风险。外包风险的研究可以概括为各方面包括管理因素、技术因素和一些关于数据安全或数据隐私的问题。在管理方面 ,与更多的公司外包他们的软件 /项目开发或售后服务，外包管 理及其相关的问题 ,已经引起了许多的研究关注。信任在软件外包业务方面也是一种经常被讨论的问题。因为信任在外包关系中被认为是很脆弱的（奥撒， 2006）风险的后期信任维护不容忽视。除了信任，虽然在外包发展中存在若干个不同来源的风险 ,一个主要的因素就是当技术队伍和业务客户没有共享一个清晰的对产品和交流的发展供应商的视觉时就会发生不满意。 结论： 众所周知 ,把所有的鸡蛋放在一个篮子里是非常危险的。同样道理，股票

41、投资中持有不同股票品种的风险低于只持有单一股票品种。多样化可使风险降低到一定程度 ,通过多样化还可以获得更多的 益处。然而 ,只通过多元化以避免任何风险是不够的。不同的多样化决定会导致风险和回报的不同结果。我们认为应该有一种最佳的组合，在较低的风险和更多收益回报之间有良好的平衡。 上述的分析是一种两个市场为对象的，最简单的组合分析模型。这样做的目的是要获取意义并且建议软件外包服务供应商不应忽视。风险和风险管理在成功的外包中将成为一名优秀的贡献者。风险和收益之间的关系也可以说明 ,可以在风险和风险规避的不同的视角原则基础上，根据不同的组合原理做出决策 。 风险问题已经在很多领域中被研究 ,特别是

42、在资本市场、金融、保险、管理。最 近 ,它已在 IT 领域并与此相关的项目管理、软件开发和外包服务中成为一个热门话题。然而 ,在很多情况下 ,外包者的利润和风险损失被予以高度关注 ,而供应商的部分却经常被忽略。本文以印度为例，试图从外包服务供应商的角度提供一些风险的分析，并发现在美国和欧洲市场之间最优率为软件出口 ,这两个国家对印度来说是最大的两个软件出口目的地。 本研究受到范围的分析的限制 ,本文只分析了美国和欧洲两个目标市场。如果此分析可以应用到所有的出口目的地以找出最优投资组合 ,并且为印度提供更多的在出口目的地市场方面策略的建议那会更好。然而 ,另一方 面 ,很难收集到所有出口目的地的

43、精确数据 ,因为通常除美国和欧洲外的其他国家没有详细的资料。另一方面 ,我们认为 ,印度在软件外包服务方面的优势主要集中在美国和欧洲市场 , 这个研究集中在 这 两个市场上，能提供更多的实用建议。 在外包方面的风险意识 ,风险规避和风险管理中对软件产业的持续、健康发展非常重要。利用简单的投资组合分析模型，为印度市场找出了两者之间的最佳组合。对美国的最好出口比例在 52%左右的。然而 ,从表 1 中我们可以看到 ,产品出口到美国的比值均超过 60%直至到达 70%的增长趋势。虽然在某些情况下这个结果并不完全 符合实际，但这的确是一个事实 ,那就是印度软件产业多年来更依赖于美国市场 , 内含了从部

44、分背景提到的许多方面的不可避免的风险，印度应该考虑其在出口市场的策略和美国的这种关系。这并不意味着印度可以忽略美国市场或拒绝来自美国的客户。相反 ,与美国继续保持良好的合作关系是非常重要的，因为对印度来说美国仍处主要的客户地位。同时 ,加强其国内市场 ,开发新的海外市场并积极提高市场份额也很重要。不发达的国内市场已成为印度软件产业的发展瓶颈 , 使得 在软件出口方面的风险更危险。印度可以以适当的政策激励和不可缺少的制度改革来扩大国内市 场的需求。对于国外市场 ,印度应该更加注意欧洲的潜在的市场资源，并依靠其著名的外包服务质量和人才在其他国家采取行动来获取新的市场份额。所有这些工作相信都可以降低风险 ,保障印度软件产业的可持续发展。