外商直接投资在中国东部地区的实证研究【外文翻译】.doc

1、 外文翻译 原文 An Empirical Study of Foreign Direct Investment Location in Eastern China Material Source: The Chinese Economy, vol. 41, no. 6, NovemberDecember 2008, pp. 7598. Author: Xing Li, Keqiang Hou, and M.W. Luke Chan Abstract: This paper examines the determinants of foreign direct investment (FDI)

2、 for the Eastern Region of China as a whole by excluding the two lesser jurisdictions and concentrating on the Big Five jurisdictions from 1993 to 2005. Robust estimates and a better understanding of FDI in Eastern China are obtained by employing robust Ordinary Least Squares (OLS), the random effec

3、t model, and the fixed-effect model separately on each case. Without any outliers and serial correlation in residuals, the Big Five case gives us the most reliable estimates of determinants of FDI in Eastern China. Market size and labor quality are found to have a positive, significant, and quantita

4、tively large effect on FDI in Eastern China, whereas education and infrastructure have a statistically non-significant positive direct effect on FDI. As for the level of local physical investment, we found a small crowding-out effect on FDI in the Big Five case. Foreign direct investment (FDI) in Ch

5、ina has been subjected to many years of discussion and study. This is a direct result of the level and impact of such investments on Chinas overall development. The economic growth in China since 1979 and the beginning of its open-door policy have been keenly observed and studied. The economic growt

6、h phenomenon witnessed in the past two decades is something never before seen in human history. Many factors have triggered and propelled such growth, including new technology from developed countries, the influx of modern management, and, of course, foreign direct investment. In analyzing the impac

7、t of FDI on the growth and development of the Chinese economy, Chinas different economic regions will be divided to isolate and identify the regional differences where such investment added to the growth of the economy (Hsiao and Yan 2003; Zhang 2006). Economic reform in China has progressed rapidly

8、, but although the open-door policy began in the early 1980s, FDI did not begin until the early 1990s. Because of this time lag there is a lack of time series observations, and virtually all empirical analyses of FDI use panel data. The present study is no exception. This study differs from previous

9、 studies in that the focus is placed on only one region, namely the eastern region, which in turn will be deconstructed into three hierarchical groups. Local physical investment is introduced as one of the determinants, since the effect of local investment on FDI is ambiguous. We hope to find the un

10、derlying determinants of FDI in the eastern region from the empirical results of this study. Wage rate rather than educational quality will be used as a proxy for labor quality. In many previous empirical studies of the Chinese economy, labor quality was measured by such criteria as educational leve

11、l, experience, and diligence. In our view, the wage rate represents all these factors, since it equals the marginal product of labor according to classic microeconomic theory. We use separate controls for educational level and labor quality in order to study their respective effects on FDI. We found

12、 that employee educational level is just a small part of labor quality in determining FDI. Our results show that labor quality has a positive, significant and quantitatively large effect on FDI in eastern China even when we control for the regional educational level, whereas educational level only e

13、xhibits an insignificant and quantitatively small effect on FDI, albeit positive. Foreign direct investment by multinational enterprises is an important feature of the global economy. Most developing countries consider FDI inflows as one of the most important channels for economic development. Since

14、 Dunnings (1979) seminal work on eclectic theory, scholars in the field of international business have sought to examine location factors as determinants of FDI. They view location-bound assets as complements to their own core competencies, since location-specific factors present themselves with var

15、ying degrees of attractiveness to foreign investors. Relevant to our study is location theory, which is often used to explain why multinational corporations choose to invest in a particular host country. It can also be used to explain why foreign investors choose to invest in a specific location wit

16、hin a host country. The determinants of FDI location have been extensively studied (Chen 1996; Cheng and Kwan 2000a, 2000b; Coughlin, Terza, and Arromdee 1991; Friedman, Gerlowski, and Silberman, 1992; Head, Reis, and Swenson 1995; Wheeler and Mody 1992). The main determinants of FDI location sugges

17、ted by these studies can be classified as market-access factors, labor-cost factors, infrastructure, government policies, agglomeration effects, and market potential effects (Blonigen et al. 2004; Head and Mayer 2004).Figure 1 provides a schematic summary of the selected determinants of FDI based up

18、on theoretical prediction and empirical results. FDI Distribution in China China can be divided into three geographic regions: eastern, central and western. The eastern region covers eleven provinces and autonomous municipalities: Liaoning, Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Shandong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shang

19、hai, Fujian, Guangdong, and Hainan. The central region covers nine provinces: Heilongjiang, Jilin, Inner Mongolia, Shanxi, Henan, Anhui, Hubei, Jiangxi, and Hunan. The western region encompasses ten provinces in the northwest and southwest. From 1993 to 2005, the eastern region had about 85 percent

20、of the FDI in China, peaking in 2000 at almost 92 percent. The other eighteen provinces and autonomous municipalities of the central and western regions had less than 15 percent of the total FDI. The Tibet Autonomous Region had virtually no FDI, while the proportions of FDI in Qinghai and Ningxia we

21、re only 0.01 percent and 0.13 percent of the total. During the period from 1993 to 2005, Gansu, Xinjiang, Guizhou , Inner Mongolia, and Yunnan accounted for less than 0.2 percent of FDI in China. Figure 2 shows the FDI in the three different regions in percentage terms from 1993 to 2005. Obviously,

22、the regional variation of FDI is very big even by visual inspection. It is difficult, although possible, to draw accurate references and inferences on empirical analysis for the three vastly different regions. However, if one examines the pattern of FDI in the eleven geographic areas of the eastern

23、region, one can also see a vast difference in the investment pattern. Instead of showing the year-by-year FDI flow into the eleven provinces and autonomous municipalities, we present in Figure 3a, the cumulative FDI in the different geographic area from 1993 to 2005, inclusively. Statistical informa

24、tion from the Ministry of Commerce shows a clear difference in the actual FDI amounts in the eastern region. The maximum cumulative FDI, located in Guangdong province, amounted to US$151.65 billion from 1993 to 2005. This is almost twenty times as much as the US$7.79 billion investment in Hainan pro

25、vince, the lowest of the FDI indices among all eleven areas. It is evident that FDI gravitates mostly to three locations in the eastern region: Guangdong, Jiangsu, and Shanghai. Guangdong has the largest share of FDI in the eastern region, making up 28.70 percent of the total in the region, and 24.3

26、7 percent in all of China. FDI in Jiangsu follows with US$89.84 billion, making up 17 percent in the region. Shanghai makes up 10.48 percent, with the actual FDI totaling to US$55.39 billion. In addition, the Big Five jurisdictions in the eastern region have an accumulative FDI of US$151.66 billion

27、for Guangdong, US$89.85 billion for Jiangsu, US$55.39 billion for Shanghai, US$52.93 billion for Shandong, and US$47.85 billion for Fujian. These five areas account for 75.25 percent of all FDI in the eastern provinces and 63.90 percent of all FDI in China. It is interesting and important to note th

28、at the flow of FDI into the eastern region shows no sign of abatement. Figure 3b shows the pattern of FDI flow into the eleven provinces/autonomous municipalities of the eastern region. From 1998, after the Asian financial crisis of July 1997, to 2005, both the level and the trend of FDI in the east

29、ern region in China were strong. Six of the areas in the eleven jurisdictions had experienced an upward trend: Shandong, Shanghai, Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Beijing, and Tianjin. In fact, Shandong showed the strongest annual rate of growth at 43.34 percent, followed closely by Zhejiang at 42.17 percent and

30、 Shanghai at 12.33 percent. For Jiangsu, Beijing, and Tianjin, the growth rates were estimated to be at 6.18 percent, 8.96 percent and 2.16 percent, respectively. The jurisdictions where there had been an obvious downward trend were Fujian, Hebei, and Hainan where the estimated rate of decrease was

31、7.29 percent, 9.12 percent, and 13.41 percent, respectively. It is evident that the eastern region of China is undoubtedly the most important region for FDI. This makes it essential to focus more attention on the deterministic behavior of FDI in this region. By doing so, we hope to isolate and ident

32、ify factors and influences that are critical to FDI in eastern China and perhaps in China as a whole, and this will enable policy makers to formulate rules and guidelines to attract further investment. In general, several important observations can be drawn. First, the eastern region is the most imp

33、ortant area in attracting FDI. Second, two of its eleven provinces/autonomous municipalities, Hebei and Hainan, stand out as different from the others. The levels of FDI in these two provinces are very low and have been trending downward throughout the period. Including these two areas in our overal

34、l analysis of the eastern region will undoubtedly produce biased and unreliable results. Third, the lions share of FDI goes to five provinces autonomous municipalities, which experienced the highest cumulative share of FDI from 1993 to 2005. The five jurisdictions are Guangdong, Jiangsu, Shanghai, S

35、handong, and Fujian. Empirical Models and Analysis Data Description FDI location factors can be generally categorized into the following four major groups: market size, educational level, openness of the economy, and state of the infrastructure. Five major FDI locations have been chosen for study. A

36、part from the above four variables, labor quality and local physical investment in the region have been added as other determinants. The influence of market size on FDI determination is captured by using the level of GDP of the region as a proxy. Educational level is measured by the number of underg

37、raduate students as a percentage of the total population of the province or region. This number should provide a good indication of the level of education and quality of the labor force. The degree of openness in the economy and readiness to accept FDI undoubtedly has a positive effect on the level

38、of FDI. The degree of openness is captured by using the export to GDP ratio as a proxy. Three different variables are employed to measure the infrastructure readiness of the province or region: highways, railways, and telecommunications. For highways, we calculate the total kilometers of highways pe

39、r square kilometer of land. Similarly, we use the length of railway lines per square kilometer. The level of expenditure on telecommunications per person in the province or region is used as a proxy of activity and intensity of telecommunication. Domestic or local investment comprises all other inve

40、stment coming from domestic sources, while foreign direct investment comprises investment in the region coming from foreign countries. Finally, the quality of labor in the province or region is also an important factor in determining FDI. To determine this, the average wage rate for industrial worke

41、rs in three industrial sectors (mining and quarrying, manufacturing, and electricity, gas, and water production and supply) is calculated using sectorial employment numbers as weights. 译文 外商直接投资在中国东部地区的实证研究 资料来源 : The Chinese Economy, 2008（ 11-12） 作者： M.W. Luke 摘要： 本文主要 是 通过考察从 1993 年到 2005 年 期间 外商直

42、接投资 集中 在中国东部 地区 的决定因素 。 通过 运用最小二乘法（ OLS）的随机效应模型和固定效应模型分别 来 分析每个案例， 从而 获得了外商在中国东部直接投资的有效的估计并且对此有了 深入 的理解。没有任何异常值和残差序列相关性，这五个大的区域 为我们提供了外国直接投资在中国东部的最可靠的估计和决定因素。发现市场规模和劳动力素质对外国直接投资在东部有积极，重大的影响。而教育和基础设施的建设并没有直接影响外商的直接投资。 而对于本地的实际投资程度，我们在案例中也发现在外商直接投资中有挤出效用。 外商直接投资 在中国已经被研究和讨论了很多年。这是外商直接投资在中国的整体发展趋势的直接结果

43、。从 1979 年开始，中国的改革开放政策影响下，经济开始增长。这种经济增长的态势是过去二十年来从未在历史上出现过的。有很多因素促成了这样快的经济增长速度，包括从国外先进国家引进的技术，有大量的 有效新颖的管理技能还有就是外商的直接投资。 在分析外商直接投资对中国经济的增长和发展的影响中，中国不同的经济区域的影响作用是有差异化的。 （ Hsiao and Yan 2003; Zhang 2006） 中国的经济发展迅速，但尽管改革开放的政策市实 行于八十年代，外商的直接投资是到九十年代才开始的。 由于这个原因，缺少一个时间序列的观测，关于外商直接投资的实证分析几乎都是使用 时序 截面数据 ，当前

44、的研究也不例外。 本研究与以往的研究不同在于只专注于一个地区，即东部地区，作为三个区域的之一来分析。本地的实际的投资是重要的决定因素 之一 ，地方的外商直接投资的影响是不确定的。我们希望从这个实证研究中能够得到中国东部外商直接投资的基本决定因素 。 工资率，而不是教育的质量将会作为劳动力质量的标准。 在先前很多关于中国经济的实证研究中，劳动力的水平是衡量教育的水平、经验以 及勤奋的重要因素。 在我们看来，工资率可以代表所有的这些因素。 依据是 因为这等于是古典经济学理论中的边际劳动产品。 我们对劳动力水平和教育水平实行分别控制，来研究这两方面对外商直接投资的影响。我们从中发现 员工的教育水平是

45、劳动力素质的小部分 作用于 外商的直接投资。 我们的研究结果表明，劳动力的素质对于外商的直接投资 在中国东部地区 具有积极、显著的影响。 尽管中国东部的教育水平对于外商直接投资的作用是微乎其微的，但是证明是积极的。 跨国公司的外商直接投资是全球经济化的重要特征， 大多数发展中国家认为外商投资的资金流入是本国经济发展的重要渠道之一。自从邓宁提出了开创性的生产折中理论 （ 1979） 之后，国际业务领域中，区位因素就成为了外商直接投资的决定因素。他们 是 位置的约束为自己核心竞争力的补充，因为各自的具体区位可以展现不同方面来吸引外商投资者。 我们所研究的区位理论也正是经常用来解释为什么外商投资者要

46、选这么一个特定的东道国区位来进行投资。 外商直接投资的区位的决定因素已经被广泛研究 （ Chen 1996; Cheng and Kwan 2000a, 2000b ; Coughlin, Terza, and Arromdee 1991; Friedman, Gerlowski, and Silberman 1992; Head,Reis, and Swenson 1995; Wheeler and Mody 1992） 很多学者 所建议的 最重要的 外商直接投资的区位决定因素可以分为市场准入因素、劳动力成本因素、基础建设、政府的政策、聚集效应和市场的潜力的影响。（ Blonigen et

47、al. 2004; Head and Mayer 2004） 图表提供了外商直接投资决定因素的选择的总结，是以 理论预测和实证的结果为依据的。 外商直接投资在中国的分布 中国可以分为三个地理区域，东部、中部和西部。东部包括十一省和直辖市：辽宁，北京，天津，河北，山东，江苏，浙江，上海，福建，广东，海南。中部地区涵盖九个省：黑龙江，吉林，内蒙古，山西，河南，安徽，湖北，江西，湖南。西部地区包括在西北和西南的十个省市。 从 1993年至 2005年，东部地区大约有外商直接投资占全部的百分之八十五， 2000年达到顶峰，有将近百分之九十二，其他省市的比例 就 为百分之十五左右。西藏自治区几乎没有外商

48、直接投资，而青海和宁夏的外商直接投资 比例仅为百分之 零点零一 和百分之 零点一三 。 1993年至 2005年间，甘肃、新疆、贵州、内蒙古及云南的外商直接投资占不足百分之 零点二 的。 显然，外商的直接投资很明显的就能看出区域之间的差异很大。得出准确的参考和实证的研究 去分析这三个大的区域 虽然困难，但也是有可能的 。但是如果我们关注东部地区十一个省市的外商直接投资的格局，我们也可以看到这中间投资结构也有巨大的差异。 商务部的 统计资料的显示 ，东部地区外商直接投资区域也有明显差异 ，最大的外商直接投资地方时广东省，从 1993年到 2005年 已经 达到了总额 1516.5亿美 元 ， 这几乎是美国在海南投资总额的二十倍 。很显然，外商的直接投资主要集中在广东、江苏和上海 三个地方 ，广东所占的比重最大，占整个东部地区的百分之二十八点七，同时也占整个中国地区的百分之二四点三七。