在9个经济合作与发展组织国家中信息和通讯技术对经济增长的贡献【外文翻译】.doc

1、 外文翻译 原文 THE CONTRIBUTION OF INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGIES TO ECONOMIC GROWTH INNINEOECD COUNTRIES Material Source: OECD Economic Study, 2002 Author: Alessandra Colecchia and Paul Schreyer Abstract This paper is based on Colecchia (2001) which updates and extends an OECD study on the co

2、ntribution of ICT to output growth in the G7countries (Schreyer, 2000) in several significant ways. First, the study covers software as an ICT asset. This reflects the recognition of software as an intangible investment good in the System of National Accounts1993 (SNA93). Second, ICT investment seri

3、es are as far as possible based on official statistics, while Schreyer (2000) had to rely on private source data. Third, the set of countries has been extended to cover two additional countries, Australia and Finland. In addition, the analysis covers the second half of the1990s which has been a peri

4、od of significant interest regarding the role of ICT. Key words: ICT； investment； output growth INTRODUCTION Recently, OECD (2001a) examined sources of and differences in growth patterns between OECD countries and concluded that one factor that has become increasingly important is information and co

5、mmunication technology (ICT). Some of the effects of ICT, in conjunction with macroeconomic policies are well-documented for the United States which witnessed strong growth over an unusually long expansion, 1992-00. The present work aims at quantifying the contribution of ICTS to output growth in th

6、e United States and in several other OECD countries. In particular, it examines the role of ICT as a source of capital services, delivering inputs to the production process. This is different from an output perspective where the primary concern is the role of ICT-producing industries in the economy.

7、 ICT is often embodied in other, non-ICT capital goods For example semiconductors are part of assembly lines. Here, ICT plays a role as an intermediate input to capital goods production. While potentially an important source of productivity gains, this contribution to output is not separately identi

8、fied in the present framework. RESULTS ICT investment The economic expansion in the United States in the second half of the1990s was led by large and sustained growth in business investment, following very low levels at the beginning of the decade. Remarkably, the rate of capital accumulation in the

9、 US business sector almost doubled in the second part of the decade, mainly because of strong investment in ICT capital. In2000, and measured at current prices, ICT investment accounted for nearly a third of overall non-residential investment, and similar high rates are found in Finland, followed by

10、 Canada and Australia (Table3). When comparing these trends across countries, one has to bear in mind business cycles. For example in the early1990s, when the United States started its expansion phase, Finland went through a deep economic recession. More recently, when investment in Finland has been

11、 surging, Japan has been experiencing an economic downturn. Yet, in spite of different positions in the business cycle, it is apparent from Table4 that all nine OECD countries under consideration witnessed a rapid increase of constant price ICT investment. The growth rate even accelerated in the sec

12、ond part of the1990s, with the exception of Japan. The rate of growth in IT equipment in the United States in the1990s doubled with respect to the1980s and accelerated in the1995-00period to reach 34per cent per year on average. Similar rates of increase were registered in France for all three types

13、 of ICT assets. While communications equipment was the most dynamic component in Finland, it was hardware in Japan and software in Australia. Overall, the growth of investment in the1990s was driven by growth in ICT investment in all nine countries. This is particularly evident in the case of the Un

14、ited States, Australia and Finland where ICT investment accounted for over 50per cent of non-residential investment growth in the second half of the1990s. Volume growth in IT investment has been so significant because of a steady decline in its relative price, giving rise to substitution between dif

15、ferent types of capital and between ICT capital and labor. The rapid price decline for computers and office equipment accelerated further in the late1990s with respect to earlier years. This drop in prices has been much less pronounced for communications equipment and software. Software has nonethel

16、ess been a major driver of ICT investment growth in the late1990, contributing 25-40per cent of overall investment growth. One likely reason for rapid software investment is its complementarities with IT capital goods. Consider a general-purpose technology such as the Internet that offers an infrast

17、ructure for new forms of business. Their development typically entails investment in communication infrastructure first, followed by investment in applications (software). The development of on-line activities, which often follows, generates demand for new technology infrastructure and applications.

18、 For instance, new multimedia applications require continuous improvements in circuit technology and software enabling the use of real-time media data-types such as video, speech, animation and music. Another, more short-lived reason for a steep rise in software investment towards the end of the1990

19、s was the anticipation of the “Y2K bug” even though it remains difficult to give even approximate indications about the size of this investment effect. Contribution of ICT capital to output growth Table5 shows the contribution of ICT equipment and software to output growth in the business sector of

20、the countries under review. In the first half of the1990s, and based on the harmonized price index, this contribution ranged between 0.18percentage point per year and 0.48percentage point, depending on the country. Over the period1995-2000, the contribution of IT and software jumped to a range from

21、0.33to 0.86percentage point. In relative terms, ICT capital accounted for between one-third and close to 100per cent of the overall contribution of capital services to output growth. The contribution of ICT equipment to output growth was highest in the United States (0.86percentage point on average

22、over the years1995-99), followed by Australia, Canada and Finland. As the first panel of Table5 is based on national price indices for ICT, some of the differences in growth contributions may be due to methodological rather than actual discrepancies in price changes. The second panel therefore repro

23、duces the results based on a harmonized price index. A comparison of the tables yields major differences in the ICT contribution to output growth for Finland (up by over0.4percentage point in the second half of the1990s) and a more moderate increase in the measured contributions of Germany, Italy an

24、d the United Kingdom. This brings them in line with France and Japan where national IT deflators are based on hedonic models and differ much less from the harmonized set. However, the use of harmonized deflators does not close the apparent gap between ICT contributions in the United States and the l

25、arge European countries. In the1995-2000period, software capital accumulation accounted for about 20to 30per cent of the overall contribution of ICT capital to output growth. It is remarkable that this result holds across all OECD countries in the sample, with the exception of Japan and the United K

26、ingdom. However, software expenditure data for Japan excludes own-account software and this may well explain the discrepancy. For the United Kingdom, Oulton (2001) suggested that the official data under-estimate software expenditure. Also, some researchers (Jorgenson and Stiroh, 2000) have observed

27、that price indices of own-account software may not fully reflect quality improvements and in this sense, the contribution of software to economic growth as computed here may constitute a lower bound. More generally, however, statistical methodologies to capitalize software are still under developmen

28、t, and a definite statement about upward or downward biases is difficult to make. Our results are broadly consistent with those of other studies relating to individual countries, in particular Oliner and Sichel (2000), Jorgenson and Stiroh (2000) and Jorgenson (2001) for the United States, Cette eta

29、l (2000) for France, Niininen (1999) for Finland, Oulton (2001) for the United Kingdom, Schreyer (2000) for the G7, Daveri (2000) for 18 countries. Other studies for the United States use a different framework with somewhat different results like in Whelan (2000), or significantly different results

30、as in Kiley (1999). CONCLUSIONS This paper examines the contribution of ICT capital to economic growth in nine OECD countries. It does so by looking at investment trends in ICT equipment and software and at the role played by ICT in overall capital accumulation. Contributions to growth are quantifie

31、d in a growth accounting framework. Because data issues loom heavily in the ICT area and even more so in international comparisons, measurement and statistical points are discussed at some length. Main findings are: Despite different positions in the business cycle, all nine countries underwent a ma

32、rked increase in the rate of investment in ICT capital goods. IT equipment and software have been the most dynamic ICT components, and grew at two-digit real rates in nearly all nine countries. While ICT investment has been growing everywhere, cross-country differences persist. In the year2000, and

33、measured in nominal terms, ICT investment accounted for about one-third of total non-residential investment in the United States, and somewhat less in Finland, Canada and Australia. Concurrent with the rise in demand for IT investment, prices for IT capital goods have fallen in relative and absolute

34、 terms. This led to substitution effects towards IT capital goods and away from other factors of production. Software prices fell by less than IT equipment prices but this did not prevent rapid accumulation of software capital. One notable expression of substitution effects between different types o

35、f assets is the observed compositional change of capital services, towards capital goods with higher returns per period. In the first half of the1990s, ICT contributed between about 0.2 and 0.5percentage point per year to economic growth, depending on the country. During the second half of the1990s,

36、 this contribution rose to 0.3to 0.9percentage point per year. Thus, the United States has not been alone in benefiting from the positive effects of ICT capital investment on economic growth and it has not been alone in experiencing an acceleration of these effects. However, effects have clearly bee

37、n largest in the United States, followed only by Australia, Finland and Canada. Of the nine countries considered, Germany, Italy, France and Japan registered the lowest contribution of ICT to economic growth. 译文 在 9 个经济合作与发展组织国家中信息和通讯技术对经济增长的贡献 资料来源 : 经济合作与发展组织经济研究 ,2002 作者： 意大利凯勒柯查尔，保罗希瑞尔 摘要 本文基于 2

38、001 年凯勒柯查尔用几个有意义的方法更新和补充一个 2000年希瑞尔写的关于 7 国集团信息和通讯技术对产出增长的贡献的经合组织研究。首先 ,研究设计软件作为一个信息与通信技术的资产。这反映了识别软件作为一个国家 Accounts1993系统 (SNA93系统 )中无形投资的好系统。 第二 , 信息和通讯技术投资系列尽可能根据官方统计显示 ,而 2002 年时的希瑞尔不得不依靠私人源数据。第三 ,国家设置已扩展至包括两个额外的国家 ,澳大利亚和芬兰。此外 ,分析涵盖了学术界一直对关于信息与通信技术的作用感兴趣的 20世纪 90 年代中后期。 关键词：信息与通信技术；投资； 产出 增长 介绍

39、最近 ,经济合作与发展组织 (2001 年 )探索了经济增长的源泉和经合组织国家之间的经济增长方式的差异并得出结论：一个日益重要的因素是信息和通讯技术 (ICT)。结合宏观经济政策，一些信息与通讯技术的影响 ,为在 1992 年以来的一段不 寻常的长期扩张中经济强劲增长的美国很好得记录了下来。目前的研究工作旨在定量测算美国和其他一些经济合作与发展组织国家信息和通讯技术对产出增长的贡献。尤为重要的是 ,它解释了信息与通讯技术作为资本服务、送投入生产工艺来源的角色。这不同于主要关注的是信息和通讯技术生产产业经济的角色的输出观点。 信息与通讯技术通常是体现在其他地方，非信息与通讯技术资本货物 ,例如

40、半导体是生产线的一部分。在这里 ,信息与通讯技术扮演了作为一个中间投入资本货物生产的角色。当一个生产力的重要来源潜在增加时 ,产量贡献不分别确定在目前的框架。 结果 信息与通信技术投资 20 世纪 90 年代中后期美国的经济扩张被大型的和持续增长的商业投资引导 ,在初始的十年里含量非常低。值得一提的是 , 美国商业领域的资本积累速度在第二个部分的十年几乎翻了一番 ,主要是因为信息与通讯技术领域资本强劲的投资。 2000 年，测量目前的价格 , 信息与通讯技术投资占近三分之一的整体非居民投资 , 并且类似的较高的利率被发现在芬兰 ,接下来是加拿大和澳大利亚 (表 3)。 当在不同国家间比较这些趋

41、势 ,我们必须记住商业周期。例如在 20 世纪90 年代初期 ,当美国开始它的扩张阶段时 ,芬兰经历了深刻 的经济衰退。更近地 ,当投资在芬兰一直大幅上升时 ,日本已经体验了经济衰退。然而 , 尽管处于商业周期的不同部位 , 仍很明显可以从表 4中看出所有 9个经济合作与发展组织正在考虑见证不变价格信息与通讯技术投资的迅速增加。除了日本，在 20 世纪 90 年代的第二部分增长率甚至加速。美国 20 世纪 90 年代信息技术设备的增长率比 80 年代翻了一番且 1995 年以来以平均每年达到 34%加速。所有三种信息与通讯技术资产相似比率的增加被注册在法国。当通信设备在芬兰最具有活力时 ,硬件

42、在日本最具有活力和软件在澳大利亚最具有活力。总的来说 , 在所 有 9 个国家， 20 世纪 90 年代投资的增长被信息与通讯技术投资增长所推动。这在美国 , 澳大利亚和芬兰尤其明显，这些地方在 20 世纪 90 年代中后期，信息与通讯技术投资占非居民投资增长的 50%以上。 因为相应的价格持续下降 , 替代上升到在不同的资本和资本和劳动的信息与通信技术之间，所以在成长的投资在信息与通讯技术投资中是如此重要。20 世纪 90 年代后期或更早些年，快速的价格下降为电脑和办公设备进一步加速。这个价格的下跌了为通信设备和软件减少了阻碍。软件在 20 世纪 90 年代后期仍然是信息和通讯技术投资增长得

43、一个主要司机 , 贡献 25%-40%的整体投资增长。 软件产业投资迅速的一个可能的原因是它与信息与通讯技术资本物品的互补性。考虑一个通用的技术如互联网技术为新形式的业务提供基础设施。它们的发展通常需要首先投资于通信基础设施 , 其次是投资于应用 (软件 )。在线活动的发展 ,往往产生需要新的技术基础设施和应用。例如 ,新的多媒体应用需要电路技术的不断提高和软件能够使用实时媒体数据类型如视频、言语、动画和音乐。另外一种 20 世纪 90 年代末软件产业投资急速上升比较短命的理由是 “千年虫 ”的参与，尽管它仍然很难给与甚至近似给与投资效果大小指示。 信息与通讯技术资本对产出增长的贡献 表 5

44、显示了信息与通讯技术设备和软件在国家商业领域对产出增长的贡献正在审阅中。 20 世纪 90 年代上半 段 ,根据协调价格指数的上升，根据国家调查，这一贡献每年在 0.18-0.48 个百分点范围内浮动。 1995-2000 年信息技术和软件的贡献 ,跳升去了一个范围从 0.33 到 0.86 个百分点。相对来说 ,信息与通信技术资本占三分之一到接近 100%的资本服务对产出增长所有的贡献。信息与通信技术设备对产出增长的贡献最高的在美国 (1995-1999 年平均 0.86个百分点 ), 其次是澳大利亚、 加拿大和芬兰。作为表 5 的第一小组是基于对信息与通信技术的国家价格指数，某些增长方式的

45、差异可能是由于贡献方法的差异而并不是实际价格变化。第二小组因此复制结果基于协调价格指数。表格的比较收益有很大的变化的是芬兰信息与通信技术设备对产出增长的贡献（在 20 世纪 90 年代中后期上升到超过 0.4 个百分点）和测量的贡献中更加适度增长的德国、意大利和英国。这使他们符合法国和日本国家，这些国家信息与通信技术平减指数是基于享乐模型，从而使不同少得多。然而 ,使用协调平减指数并不关闭美国的信息与通信技术的贡献和大欧洲国家之间明显的的 差距。 在 1995-2000 年期间，软件资本积累约占信息与通信技术对产出增长的所有的贡献的 20-30%。值得一提的是这结果除了日本和英国持有所有经济合

46、作与发展组织国家在样品中。然而 ,软件支出数据不包括日本限额软件，这也许可以很好得解释这差异。对于英国， 沃尔顿 (2001)建议官方数据低估软件支出。另外 ,一些研究者 (约根生 以及斯提洛先生们 ,2000)已经观察到限额价格指数软件可能不会完全反映质量改进 ,从这个意义上说 , 软件对于经济增长的贡献在这里的情况 ,可能构成下界。然而 ,更普遍的是 ,充分利用软件的统计方法仍会 处于开发阶段 , 声明和确定向上或向下偏见是困难的。 我们的结果大致相符有关个别国家的其他研究 ,尤其是奥利纳、西切尔(2000), 约根生 以及斯提洛先生们 (2000)和 约根生 (2001)对美国的研究。

47、柯提托 . (2000)为法国， 奈妮能 (1999)为芬兰， 沃尔顿 (2001)为英国， 希瑞尔 (2000)为七国集团， 黛维乐 (2000)为 18 个国家的研究。其他为美国的研究使用一个不同的框架和有些不同的结果像维兰 (2000),或者明显不同的结果像凯利 (1999)。 结论 本文在 9 个经济合作与发展组织国家中探索了信息和 通讯技术资本对经济增长的贡献。它通过观察信息和通讯技术设备和软件领域的投资趋势和信息与通信技术在全面资本积累中所扮演的角色做到这点。对经济增长的贡献被量化在增长核算框架中。因为数据问题重重地在信息和通讯技术地区织机而且也这样在国际比较 ,评估与统计要点进行

48、探讨在长一些。主要发现有 : 尽管处于商业周期的不同部位 , 在信息和通讯技术资本物品投资收益率上， 9 个国家都有显著上升。信息技术设备和软件是最动态的信息与通信技术部件 ,且在几乎所有 9 个国家中真实利率保持两位数增长。当信息和通讯技术投资增长随处可见时 ,跨国差异依 然存在。 2000 年，以测量的名义 , 信息和通讯技术投资在美国约占三分之一的总非居民的投资，芬兰、加拿大和澳大利亚少一些。 随着信息技术投资需求的上升 ,信息技术资本货物的价格跌到了相对和绝对的条件。这导致了对信息技术资本货物的替代效应并且避开了其他生产要素。软件价格下降不到信息技术设备的价格 ,但这并不能阻止软件资本的迅速积累。一个显著的在不同的资产之间替代效应的表达是观察作曲的改变资本服务 ,每期给资本货物更高的回报。 20 世纪 90 年代 上半段，根据国家调查，信息和通讯技术给经济增长每年贡献了大约 0.2 到 0.5 个 百分点 。 20 世纪 90 年代 后半段 ,该贡献上升到 0.3 再到 0.9 个百分点每年。 因此 ,美国并没有是一个人在受益于信息与通信技术对经济发展的积极影响，还没有独自一人体验这些影响的加速。然而 ,效果明显最大的是在美国 , 紧接着是澳大利亚、芬兰和加拿大。考虑到这 9 个国家，德国、意大利、法国和日本享受了信息和通讯技术给经济增长带来的最低的贡献。