全球林业产业部门的竞争力：以德国为例的实证研究【外文翻译】.doc

1、1本科毕业论文外文翻译外文题目COMPETITIVENESSINTHEGLOBALFORESTINDUSTRYSECTORANEMPIRICALSTUDYWITHSPECIALEMPHASISONGERMANY出处EUROPEANJFORESTRES作者MATTHIASDIETERHERMANNENGLERTCOMPETITIVENESSINTHEGLOBALINFORESTINDUSTRYSECTORANEMPIRICALSTUDYWITHSPECIALEMPHASISONGERMANYTURANSUBSATABSTRACTTHEOBJECTIVEOFTHEPRESENTEDSTUDYIST

2、OANALYZETHECOMPETITIVENESSOFTHEGERMANFORESTINDUSTRYSECTORAGAINSTTHEBACKGROUNDOFTHEINTERNATIONALTIMBERMARKETSTHEANALYSISISCONDUCTEDBASEDONGLOBALBILATERALTRADEDATAINMONETARYTERMSTIMBERCOMMODITIESAREGROUPEDACCORDINGTOTWELVECOMMODITYCLASSESEACHCLASSISCLEARLYATTRIBUTEDTOONEOFTHETHREEPROCESSINGLEVELSRAWWO

3、OD,SEMIFINISHEDANDFINISHEDWOODPRODUCTSAFTERANINTRODUCTORYDESCRIPTIONOFTHESTRUCTUREANDDEVELOPMENTOFTHEGLOBALTIMBERMARKET,TWORESULTORIENTEDCOMPETITIVENESSINDICATORSHAVEBEENAPPLIEDTHEREVEALEDCOMPARATIVEADVANTAGERCA,WHICHINDICATESWHETHERACOUNTRYISSPECIALIZEDINASPECIFICSECTORTHERCAANALYSISHASBEENCONDUCTE

4、DBYMEANSOFTHETWOCONSECUTIVEINDICESBALASSAINDEXBIANDAQUINOINDEXAIANDINADDITIONTHECONSTANTMARKETSHARECMSANALYSIS,WHICHDISAGGREGATESTHEOVERALLEXPORTGROWTHOFACOUNTRYINTOFOURDIFFERENTEFFECTS1THEWORLDGROWTHEFFECT,2THECOMMODITYCOMPOSITIONEFFECT,3THEMARKETDISTRIBUTIONEFFECTAND4ARESIDUAL,WHICHUSUALLYISINTERP

5、RETEDASTHECOMPETITIVENESSEFFECTDEPENDINGONTHECHOSENINDICATOR,RESULTSAREGIVENFOR21AND25LEADINGCOUNTRIESRCAANDCMS,RESPECTIVELYTHEHIGHESTBIVALUESARESHOWNBYRUSSIAFORRAWWOOD104,BYFINLANDFORSEMIFINISHEDWOODPRODUCTS113ANDBYPOLANDFORFINISHEDWOODPRODUCTS47THEAISHOWSTHATCOUNTRIESWHICHARESPECIALIZEDINTIMBERCOM

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11、COMPETITIVENESSSITUATIONOFTHEGLOBALFORESTINDUSTRYSECTORANDTHEREWITHATPROVIDINGASCIENTIFICFUNDAMENTFORDECISIONMAKERSINPOLICYANDECONOMYTHEMAINEMPHASISOFTHESTUDYISONTHECOMPETITIVENESSOFTHEGERMANFORESTINDUSTRYSECTORACOMPREHENSIVEANALYSIS,HOWEVER,REQUIRESTHECONSIDERATIONOFGLOBALASPECTSCOMPETITIVENESSISAC

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18、RSFORANINDIVIDUALSECTORSHOULDBEKEPTINMINDANINDIVIDUALSECTORISOFCOURSEAFFECTEDBYNATIONALWIDECHANGESINTHELEGAL,INSTITUTIONALORSOCIALFRAMEWORK,FOREXAMPLETHEDEVELOPMENTOFANCILLARYWAGECOSTSDATASOURCESANDDEFINITIONSEACHSECTORANALYSISFIRSTLYREQUIRESADEFINITIONOFWHICHBRANCHESTHESECTORISCOMPOSEDOFANDWHATTHER

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22、SEDPANELS,WOODPRODUCTSINCLUDINGFURNITURE,PULP,PAPERANDPAPERBOARD,PRINTEDMATTERANDREGENERATEDCELLULOSETHERESPECTIVEINTERNATIONALMARKETISREFERREDTOASTHETIMBERCOMMODITYMARKETTHISDEFINITIONISALSOINLINEWITHTHERECENTDEFINITIONOFTHEFORESTINDUSTRYSECTORBYTHEEUROPEANPARLIAMENTTHERATHERCOMPREHENSIVEDEFINITION

23、ISCHOSENBECAUSEPROCESSINGYIELDSHIGHERADDEDVALUE,ANDHENCECANBESEENASCHARACTERISTICFORHIGHLYDEVELOPEDANDCOMPETITIVEECONOMIESTHISSHOULDBEREFLECTEDBYTHISANALYSISTHEDATASOURCEAPPLIEDISTHEWORLDTRADEANALYZERWTA2004,PUBLISHEDBYSTATISTICSCANADAASACDROMITCOMPRISESBILATERALEXPORTANDIMPORTDATAFORALLCOUNTRIESTHR

24、OUGHOUTTHEWORLDINMONETARYVALUES1,000USDINCURRENTPRICESTHECLASSIFICATIONFOLLOWSTHESTANDARDINTERNATIONALTRADECLASSIFICATIONTHIRDREVISIONSITCREV3BYTHEUNITEDNATIONSDISAGGREGATEDDATAAREAVAILABLEATMOSTATTHEFOURDIGITLEVELFIGURE1ILLUSTRATESTHETIMBERRELATEDCOMMODITYDIVISIONSANDCOMMODITYGROUPSFORTHEFORESTINDU

25、STRY,WHICHARECLASSIFIEDINTOTHREEPROCESSINGLEVELSRAWWOOD,SEMIFINISHEDPRODUCTSANDFINISHEDPRODUCTSANDTWOSECTORSWOODANDPAPERTHEVALUESFORFURNITUREPROVIDEDBYTHEWTACDROMARENOTSUBDIVIDEDINTOFURNITUREMADEOFWOODANDFURNITUREMADEOFOTHERMATERIALSNODIFFERENTIATIONHASBEENMADEINTHISREGARDANDTHEENTIREFURNITURETRADEI

26、SCONSIDERED,TAKINGINTOACCOUNTTHEONLYPARTIALLINKAGEOFTHISINDUSTRYTOTHEFORESTINDUSTRYSECTORMOSTOFTHERESULTORIENTEDINDICATORSAREBASEDONFOREIGNTRADEDATA,INPARTICULARONEXPORTSEXPORTSSHOWTHESTRENGTHOFACOUNTRYTOCOMPETEINFOREIGNMARKETS,BUTTHEYDONOTTAKEINTOACCOUNTTHECAPABILITYTOCOMPETEINTHEDOMESTICMARKETFORA

27、COMPREHENSIVEANALYSISITWOULDBEDESIRABLETOINTEGRATEACOUNTRYSPRODUCTIONFORTHEDOMESTICMARKETHOWEVER,SUCHDATAARENOTAVAILABLEHENCE,THISSTUDYISLIMITEDTOEXPORTS5ANEXPOSTANALYSISALSOREQUIRESADEFINEDPERIODSINCEAVAILABILITYOFDATARESTRICTSCOMPETITIVENESSANALYSISTOINTERNATIONALTRADE,THEMARKETSHAREOFANINDIVIDUAL

28、COUNTRYINASPECIFICYEARISNOTONLYSUBJECTTOITSEXPORTSBUTALSOTOTHEOVERALLVOLUMETRADEDTHEDISSOLUTIONOFTHEFORMERSOVIETUNIONORYUGOSLAVIAHASRESULTEDINANINCREASEDNUMBEROFCOUNTRIES,ANDTHROUGHTHISTHEREHASBEENANINCREASEINTHENUMBERANDVOLUMEOFTRADEFLOWSHENCE,THEDEVELOPMENTOFTHEMARKETSHAREOFANINDIVIDUALCOUNTRYISSE

29、NSITIVETOCHANGESINTHEPOLITICALSTRUCTUREANDTHENUMBEROFCOUNTRIESINTHEWORLDTHISISANUNDESIREDEFFECTFORMANYOFTHECOMPETITIVENESSANALYSESFORTHISREASON,OURANALYSISSTARTSWITHTHEYEAR1993ANDENDSWITH2002,THELATESTYEARINTHEDATABASEINTHISPERIOD,THENUMBEROFCOUNTRIESISNEARLYCONSTANTSINCENOSIGNIFICANTPOLITICALCHANGE

30、SHAVETAKENPLACEFIG1TIMBERRELATEDSITCREV3COMMODITYDIVISIONSANDCOMMODITYGROUPS,CROSSWISECLASSIFIEDINTOPROCESSINGLEVELSANDSECTORS“ID”REFERSTOSITCREV3NESNOTELSEWHERESPECIFIEDBRIEFDESCRIPTIONOFTHEGLOBALTIMBERMARKETTHEINTRODUCTIONOFTHEGLOBALTIMEBERMARKETMAJORPLAYERSINTHETIMBERCOMMODITYMARKETSINTHEYEAR2002

31、WERECANADA,THEUSA,6MOSTOFTHEEUROPEANCOUNTRIES,CHINA,HONGKONG,MEXICO,MALAYSIA,RUSSIA,INDONESIA,BRAZILANDJAPANFIG2THESE21COUNTRIESACCOUNTFORMORETHAN82OFTHETOTALEXPORTVALUE307BILLIONUSDOFALLCOUNTRIESINTHEYEAR2002DUETOTHEIMPORTANCEOFTHESECOUNTRIES,THEFOLLOWINGSTUDYISLIMITEDTOTHEMTHEEXPORTIMPORTRATIOSOFT

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43、实证研究本文研究的目的是分析在国际木材市场的背景下，德国林产业部门的竞争力。本次分析是在以货币形式的全球双边贸易数据基础之上进行的。木材是根据十二种商品类别进行归类的；每一类都属于原木加工、半成品及成品木制品这三种加工水平之一。经过全球木材市场结构和发展的介绍说明后，得到两个以结果为导向的竞争力指标显示性比较优势（RCA），它表明一个国家是否可以专业化生产某一特定的行业。显示性比较优势是通过两个连续指数进行分析的，巴拉萨指数（BI）和阿基诺指数（AI）此外还有固定市场份额（CMS）分析，它把一个国家的整体出口增长分为四个不同的效应1）世界经济增长效应，2）商品构成效应，3）市场分配效应，4）剩

44、余，这通常被称为竞争效应。根据所选的指标，结果给出了21个和25个领先国家（分别是RCA和CMS）。原木的最高BI值（104）是在俄罗斯，半成品的木制品最高BI值（113）在芬兰，成品的木制品最高BI值（47）在波兰。AI表明那些专业出口木材商品的国家大多数同时也是重要的木材进口国。这是产业内贸易一体化的一个迹象。德国只有BI值大于1的成品木制品。这可以被看做是在全球木材市场中仅仅一个平均竞争地位的迹象。CMS分析提供了两种关键的结果大多数领先木材出口商按绝对价值计算反映的只是低的出口增长率，反之亦然。而且，强的正相关可以在一国的木材出口增长率和它的竞争效应之间被确定。大多数东欧、许多亚洲和拉

45、丁美洲国家都显示了这种模式，因为它们有高的增长率和好的正面竞争效应。德国的出口增长大多数可以归结为木材市场的整体世界增长，而不是它的林产业能力。因此，世界增长的停滞会对德国林产业部门产生重要影响。引言全球化影响着大多数国家的经济，由于资金在全世界自由流动，寻找一个尤其是互补因素的成本尽可能低的东道国。生产技术和诀窍转移到那些国家。因此，传统贸易格局发生了改变即将来临的经济获得市场份额而先前的主要出口国的主要地位发生了松动。本次研究致力于这些变化，它们可以被称为竞争力变化，本文把森林工业部门作为研究重点。这项研究的目的是更好地理解最近的全球森林工业部门竞争力的情况，并为政府和经济的决策者提供一个

46、科学基础。这项研究的主要重点是德国森林工业部门的竞争力。一个综合分析需要进行全球性的考虑。10在经济政策争论和报告中，竞争力是一个常用的词汇。但是直到现在，对什么竞争力是正确的和如何在数量上测量它仍没有清晰的定义。如果一个企业有能力在市场中坚持立场并能在获得长远的真正的高收入，那么这就是一种竞争力。巴拉萨（1962年，第27页）准确地把“销售能力”作为一个企业有竞争力的特征。由于缺乏对竞争力明确的定义，所以制订并提出了一些指标，这些指标结合起来可以描述一个特定的部门或国家的竞争环境。这些可以被分为两类（GRIES和HENTSCHEL，1994年，第417页）以结果为向导的指标这些揭示了来自事后

47、观点的部门或国家的竞争形势。典型的以结果为导向是对贸易，显示性比较优势（RCA），固定市场份额，相对单位价值或高科技领域的事物而言的。以决定性因素为导向的指标这些是基于一个国家的决定性因素和竞争形势之间的相关假设之上的。对决定性因素变化的预测可以让我们对竞争形势的发展作一个事前估计。典型的指标是一个国家的法律和体制框架，它的基础设施和社会保障体系会引起造价内容，公私的研究开发经费或是它的要素禀赋的变化。对于一个部门的具体分析，就像这里的案例一样，大多数以结果为导向的指标是非常适合的，然而大多数以决定性因素为导向的指标更适合用来分析整体经济的竞争力，而不是分析具体某个部门的形势。正因为如此，以结

48、果为导向的指标是本次研究最主要的内容。不过，应该牢记个别部门以决定性因素为导向的指标关联。个别部门会受国家在法律、制度或社会体系上广泛变化的影响，比如说辅助工资成本的发展。数据来源和定义每个部门分析首先需要的是对分支机构的组成和对应各自产品的定义。在大多数情况下，这些定义不是由活动或产品的性质决定的。举个例子，木材是一种原材料，它除了作为能源使用外，还可以被处理和提炼成几个高价值的产品，特别是那些用在建筑和印刷行业的产品。在高度发达的经济中，专门的工厂或企业之间的加工过程是一个相当连续的过程，原料木材从其他投入中获得附加值，比如人力资本可以远远高于木材成本值。因此，已完工的木制品是否应归功于林

49、产业部门或其他部门是令人质疑的。林产业部门和各自下游部门之间的界限的定义或多或少有点随意。一个比较全面的林产业部门的定义被应用到了目前研究上。它包括以下产品的生11产者圆材，锯木材，人造板，木制品包括家具、纸浆、纸和纸板、印刷品和再生纤维素。各自的国际市场被称为木材（商品）市场。这个定义也符合最近欧洲议会对林产业部门的定义。选择相当全面的定义是因为加工带来了高附加值，还因为它可以被看作高度发达、竞争性的经济特征。通过本次分析，这应该被反映出来。应用的数据源是世界贸易分析仪（WTA，2004），加拿大统计局以光盘的形式出版了。它包括全世界所有国家的货币价值（当时的价值是1000美元）的双边进出口数据。它的分类依据联合国标准国际贸易分类修订（国际贸易标准分类修订版3）。分类数据最多在四位数级别是可以获得的。图1说明了木材相关产品分类和林业产业产品组，它被分为三个加工层次（原木、半成品和成品）和两个部分（木材和纸张）。由世界贸易分析仪光盘提供的家具的价格并不细分为木制家具和其它材质的家具。在这方面已经没有区别了，从整个家具贸易来看，这只是林产业部门的部分连锁行业。木材行业造纸部门发展水平描述描述木材原料燃料木不含木浪费和木炭木屑和木材废料木材粗糙或者大概平方半正式的木制品木、简单的工作，铁道枕木木头做的镶嵌物，胶合板、人造板、和其它木质、工作纸浆和废纸纸及纸板正式的木制品木材生