1、本科毕业论文外文翻译外文题目TECHNOLOGICALDIFFUSIONANDINVESTMENTBEHAVIOURTHECASEOFTHETEXTILEINDUSTRY出处REVIEWOFWORLDECONOMICS,1989,VOLUME125,NUMBER4,PAGES782803作者CRISTIANOANTONELLI,PASCALPETITANDGABRIELTAHAR原文TECHNOLOGICALDIFFUSIONANDINVESTMENTBEHAVIOURTHECASEOFTHETEXTILEINDUSTRYIINTRODUCTIONTHEDIFFUSIONOFTECHNOLOG
2、ICALINNOVATIONINCORPORATEDINNEWCAPITALGOODSISTHERESULTOFINVESTMENTDECISIONSWHICHAREINFLUENCEDBYTWOCLASSESOFFACTORSTHECHARACTERISTICSOFTHEINNOVATIONANDTHEMACROECONOMICENVIRONMENTINWHICHTHEADOPTERSOPERATEOURAIMINTHISPAPERISTOEXPLAINTHEROLEPLAYEDBYTHESEFACTORSINTHEADOPTIONPROCESSATINDUSTRYLEVELTHEMACRO
3、ECONOMICENVIRONMENT,INWHICHFIRMSOPERATE,REFERSTOSUCHFACTORSASDEMANDTRENDS,RELATIVEPRODUCTIONCOSTSANDOVERALLCOMPETITIVENESSTECHNOLOGICALFACTORSREFER,ONTHEONEHAND,TOTHECAPACITIESOFTHENEWMACHINESORTHEIREXPECTEDPROFITABILITYAND,ONTHEOTHERHAND,TOTHEAVAILABILITYOFINFORMATIONANDOFTHEKNOWHOWTOWHICHTHEUSERSM
4、USTHAVEACCESSSTICKINESSOFINFORMATIONANDRIGIDITYOFLEARNINGPROCESSESGENERATEASYMMETRIESBETWEENFIRMS,WHICHCOMBINEWITHSTRUCTURALDIFFERENCESTODETERMINEADOPTIONANDDIFFUSIONPROCESSESTHEINTERNATIONALDIFFUSIONOFSHUTTLELESSLOOMSINTHECOTTONWEAVINGINDUSTRYINTHELATESEVENTIESANDEARLYEIGHTIESSEEMSTOPROVIDEEVIDENCE
5、OFTHEJOINTEFFECTPLAYEDINTHEIRADOPTIONBYTHESETWOCLASSESOFFACTORS,IE,THETECHNOLOGICALANDMACROECONOMICCONTEXTOFINVESTMENTTHECOTTONWEAVINGINDUSTRY,INFACT,HASBEENFACEDBYDRAMATICCHANGESINTHEDISTRIBUTIONOFMARKETSHARES,WITHTHEMAJORDECLINEOFOLDINDUSTRIALIZEDCOUNTRIESANDTHEUPSURGEOFNEWLYINDUSTRIALIZINGONESATT
6、HESAMETIME,RATESOFTHEADOPTIONOFMODEMCAPITALGOODSOCCURREDATVARYINGRYTHMSINBOTHNEWANDOLDINDUSTRIALIZEDCOUNTRIESTHISPAPERANALYZESSUCHTECHNOLOGICALDIFFUSIONASBEINGTHERESULTOFASEQUENCEOFINVESTMENTDECISIONSTAKENBYECONOMICAGENTSWITHLIMITEDKNOWLEDGEANDBOUNDEDRATIONALITYINAGIVENMACROECONOMICCONTEXTBYINCLUDIN
7、GATECHNOLOGICALANDAMACROECONOMICDIMENSION,OURAPPROACHAVOIDSTHEMISTAKEOFHAVINGTODEPENDONLYONLEARNINGPROCESSESASINTHEEPIDEMICANALYSISORONRATIONALBEHAVIOUROFINVESTMENTASINTHEPURELYMICROECONOMICAPPROACHFURTHERMORE,ITLEADSTOAMOREENDOGENOUSAPPROACHTOTHEDIFFUSIONPROCESSONTHEBASISOFLAWSOFADOPTIONBYMEANSOFAS
8、IMPLEMODELWESHALLPROVIDEANINTEGRATEDFRAMEWORKTOANALYZETHEADOPTIONOFNEWCAPITALGOODSINTHECOTTONWEAVINGINDUSTRYASINFLUENCEDBYMARKETASWELLASBYEPIDEMICFACTORSREFERENCESTOTHEEMPIRICALEVIDENCEOFTHEINTERNATIONALDIFFUSIONOFSHUTTLELESSLOOMSINTHECOTTONINDUSTRYAREGIVENINSECTIONIIWHILETHETHEORETICALFOUNDATIONOFT
9、HEMODELISELABORATEDINSECTIONIIITHEECONOMETRICANALYSISPRESENTEDINSECTIONIVFOCUSESATTENTIONONWHATDETERMINESTHEPROBABILITYOFINTRODUCINGMODERNTECHNOLOGYWHENINVESTMENTDECISIONSAREMADEOURCONCLUSIONSSECTIONVINCLUDESIMULATIONSWHICHILLUSTRATEOURAPPROACHIITECHNOLOGICALCHANGESINTHETEXTILEINDUSTRYTHECOTTONINDUS
10、TRYEXPERIENCED,DURINGTHESEVENTIES,DIFFUSIONOFMAJORTECHNOLOGICALINNOVATIONSINALLTHEDIFFERENTPHASESOFTHEPRODUCTIONPROCESSFROMSPINNINGTHROUGHWEAVINGTOFINISHING,NOTTOMENTIONCHANGESININPUTSSUCHASSYNTHETICFIBERSMINGLEDWITHTRADITIONAL,NATURALANDARTIFICIALFIBERSIN1985MORETHAN60PERCENTOFTHETOTALPRODUCTIONOFC
11、OTTONFABRICSWERESYNTHETICFIBERSINSPINNING,THEOPENENDTECHNOLOGYSUBSTITUTEDTHERINGATLEASTIN“LOWANDMEDIUMCOUNTS“PRODUCTSINWEAVING,SHUTTLELESSLOOMSWEREINTRODUCEDINFINISHING,AVARIETYOFELECTRONICDEVICESMADETHEAUTOMATISATIONOFBLEACHING,DYEINGANDPRINTINGPOSSIBLETHETECHNOLOGICALBREAKTHROUGHTSONWHICHEACHOFTHE
12、SEINNOVATIONSAREBASEDWERECONCEIVEDANDFIRSTINTRODUCEDAFEWDECADESAGOTHEMOSTRECENTISINFACTTHEOPENENDSPINNINGTECHNOLOGYWHICHWASINTRODUCEDINCZECHOSLOVAKIAINTHELATEFIFTIESTHISSTUDYWILLCONSIDERONLYTHECASEOFTHESHUTTLELESSLOOMINITSANALYSISOFDIFFUSIONBECAUSETHEDIFFUSIONPROCESSTOOKPLACEMAINLYINTHEEARLYEIGHTIES
13、WHILEDIFFUSIONWASJUSTBEGINNINGINTHECASEOFSPINNINGORFINISHINGINNOVATIONSINITSELFTHECASEOFTHESHUTTLELESSLOOMISQUITEINTERESTINGSEEALSOANTONELLI1986RUDOLFROSSMAN,AGERMANTEXTILEENGINEER,PATENTEDTHEBASICTECHNOLOGYOFSHUTTLELESSLOOMSIN1928IN1931HISPATENTSWEREBOUGHTBYTHESULZERBROTHERCOMPANYOFWINTERTHURINSWIT
14、ZERLAND,AFIRMTRADITIONALLYINVOLVEDINSTEAMANDDIESELENGINES,WITHNOEXPERTISEINTEXTILEENGINEERINGTHEFIRSTINDUSTRIALPRODUCTIONOFSHUTTLELESS,ACTUALLYATTHATTIMELIGHTSHUTTLELOOMS,STARTEDINTHEFIFTIESSINCETHEN,AWAVEOFINCREMENTALTECHNICALCHANGESHAVEBEENINTRODUCEDTOREDUCETHEWEIGHTOFTHESHUTTLEANDLATELYTOREPLACET
15、HESHUTTLEITSELFWITHOTHERDEVICESSUCHASMETALPROJECTILES,GRIPPERS,ANDRECENTLYWATERJETSADVANCESALONGSUCHATRAJECTORYARESUMMARIZEDINTABLE1WHICHGIVESYEARSOFINDUSTRIALPRODUCTIONANDCORRESPONDINGWORKINGSPEEDSOFEACHTYPEOFLOOMONLYWHENSHUTTLELESSLOOMSREACHEDTHESTANDARDWIDTHOFOPERATION,THEYCANBECONSIDEREDASSUBSTI
16、TUTESOFCONVENTIONALLOOMSSEENABSETH,RAY,1974THUSAIRANDWATERJETLOOMSWEREAVAILABLESINCETHEMIDSIXTIES,BUTSINCETHENSIGNIFICANTCHANGESHADTOBEMADETOINCREASETHEWIDTHOFOPERATIONFROMORIGINAL5060INCHESTOSTANDARD130INCHESATTHEENDOFTHESEVENTIES,THEMODERNSHUTTLELESSLOOMWASABLETOWORKATASPEEDOF600KNOTSPERMINUTEWITH
17、MUCHLOWERLEVELSOFNOISEANDLABOURINPUTSHUTTLELESSLOOMSHOWEVERCOSTALMOSTASTWICEASSHUTTLELOOMSTHISPRICEDIFFERENTIALHASSOFARBEENQUITESTABLE,DUETOTHENATUREOFTHETEXTILEMACHINERYINDUSTRYONLYAFEWFIRMS,MOSTOFTHEMSITUATEDINSWITZERLAND,USA,JAPANANDGERMANYHAVEBEENABLETOPRODUCETHEMOSTUPDATEDVERSIONS,DUETOTHETECHN
18、OLOGICALSKILLSANDKNOWHOWNECESSARYTOPRODUCETHEMODEMSHUTTLELESSLOOMTHEADVANTAGESOFSHUTTLELESSLOOMSINTERMSOFTECHNICALPRODUCTIVITY,OPERATINGCOSTS,QUALITYOFFABRICANDMAINTENANCECOSTSIN1985BROUGHTABOUTAREDUCTIONINCURRENTPRODUCTIONCOSTSOFBETWEEN30AND50PERCENTWITHRESPECTTOTRADITIONALAUTOMATICSHUTTLELOOMS,COR
19、RESPONDINGTOACOSTOFUS50000PERMACHINEACCORDINGTOAVERAGEOECDLABOURCOSTSSINCETHEMIDSEVENTIES,INEVERYCOUNTRY,FROMATECHNICALANDECONOMICPOINTOFVIEW,THESTRATEGYOFADOPTINGSHUTTLELESSLOOMSSEEMSTOHAVEBEENFULLYDOMINANT,EXCEPTFORCERTAINSPECIALIZEDPRODUCTIONINSUCHACONTEXTTHEEVOLUTIONDURINGTHESEVENTIESANDEARLYEIG
20、HTIESOFTHECHOICEBYCOTTONWEAVINGFIRMSBETWEENMODERNSHUTTLELESSLOOMSANDTRADITIONALSHUTTLELOOMSOFFERSANIMPORTANTOPPORTUNITYTOANALYZETHEADOPTIONOFMODERNIZEDCAPITALGOODSANDTOSTUDYTECHNOLOGICALRESISTANCE,IE,THEOBSTACLESTOTHEINSTANTANEOUSDIFFUSIONOFSUPERIORPROCESSINNOVATIONSTABLE2SHOWSTHEEVOLUTIONOFTHESHARE
21、OFSHUTTLELESSLOOMSINTOTALLOOMSINSTALLEDEACHYEARINSIXTEENCOUNTRIES,OVERAPERIODOFEIGHTYEARS197784THISRATIOWHICHCONCERNSEQUIPMENTFLOWSWILLBENOTEDASMTANDSHOULDBEDISTINGUISHEDFROMTHESIMILARRATIOWHICHREFERSTOSTOCKSOFEQUIPMENT,DT,THATWESHALLUSELATERASOURDIFFUSIONVARIABLETABLE3SHOWSTHEEVOLUTIONOFDRFORTHEPUR
22、POSEOFMEASUREMENTTHEDATAOFINSTALLEDMACHINESHASBEENWEIGHTEDBYTHEIRRESPECTIVEAVERAGETECHNICALPRODUCTIVITIES2DATAONTHEEVOLUTIONOFTECHNOLOGICALCHOICESHOWSEEMTINTABLE2ACLEARINTERNATIONALVARIANCE,PARTICULARLYFORCOUNTRIESSUCHASJAPAN,INDIA,TAIWAN,KOREAANDSPAIN,WHERETHERATIOOFPURCHASESOFSHUTTLELESSLOOMSTOSHU
23、TTLELOOMSIN1977WASWELLBELOWAVERAGEDATAOFTABLE2WEREUSEDTOTESTTHESIMPLEREGRESSIONMABTREND,WHERETREND1FOR19778FOR1984ISACONTINUOUSTIMEVARIABLENOEXOGENOUSVARIABLEHASBEENINTRODUCEDDUETOTHESMALLSIZEOFTHETIMESERIES8YEARSRESULTS,LISTEDINTABLE4,EXHIBITSIGNIFICANTDIFFERENCESBETWEENCOUNTRIESTHEVALUESOFTHEESTIM
24、ATEDINTERCEPTASHOWTHATINMOSTCOUNTRIESINTHEPERIOD197784THEPROBABILITYOFADOPTINGSHUTTLELESSLOOMSWASALREADYCLOSETO80PERCENTWITHTHERELEVANTEXCEPTIONSOFKOREA0054,INDIA0115,TAIWAN0120ANDJAPAN0197WHERETHEMAJORITYOFLOOMSPURCHASEDSTILLHADSHUTTLESNEVERTHELESS,THEEFFECTOFTIME,ASESTIMATEDBYTHEPARAMETERB,TENDSTO
25、BESMALLWHENTHEINTERCEPTAISLARGETHISISCONFIRMEDBYTHENEGATIVERANKCORRELATIONOFTHEPARAMETERSAANDBR731,SUGGESTINGTHATCOUNTRIESWITHANINITIALLYLOWPROBABILITYOFADOPTINGNEWEQUIPMENTWERERAPIDLYMODIFYINGTHEIRATTITUDEITSHOULDALSOBENOTEDTHATSIXCOUNTRIESDISPLAYHIGHVARIATIONSINTHEIRPROBABILITYTOMODERNIZEMTWHICHCA
26、NNOTBEEXPLAINEDBYANYTIMETRENDITWASSOFORTHREEASIANCOUNTRIESWHERETHEAVERAGEPROBABILITYTOMODERNIZEWASWEAKKOREA,INDIAANDTAIWAN,ANDTHREEEUROPEANCOUNTRIESWHERETHISPROBABILITYFLUCTUATEDAROUNDAHIGHAVERAGEVALUESWEDEN,THENETHERLANDSANDTHEUKTHESTRONGVARIANCEINRATESOFADOPTIONOFSHUTTLELESSLOOMSBETWEENCOUNTRIESAN
27、DOVERTIMERAISESTHEQUESTIONOFTHEEXTENTUPTOWHICHCHOICESOFTHENEWTECHNOLOGYAREINFLUENCEDBYTHEMACROECONOMICCONTEXTANDBYTHEINTERNATIONALSPECIALIZATIONOFEACHCOUNTRYTHEDATAEFFECTIVELYSUGGESTSTHATINVESTMENTBEHAVIOURANDTECHNOLOGICALCHOICEAREINFLUENCEDBYTHEPERSPECTIVESOFDEMANDFORTEXTILEPRODUCTSINBOTHDOMESTICAN
28、DINTERNATIONALMARKETSTECHNOLOGICALADVANTAGESOFSHUTTLELESSLOOMARENOTSUFFICIENTINTHEMSELVESTOINDUCEALLPOTENTIALADOPTERSTOADOPTTHEMSIMULTANEOUSLYRATESOFDIFFUSIONNEVERTHELESSINCREASEWITHTIMEANDTHEDIFFUSIONPROCESSGROWSSTRONGERTODEALWITHSUCHISSUESSECTIONIIIPRESENTSAMODELOFTHEADOPTIONOFNEWCAPITALGOODS,WHIC
29、HTRIESTOINTEGRATEMACROECONOMICDETERMINANTSANDTECHNOLOGICALFACTORSVDIFFUSIONPATTERNSANDMODERNIZATIONBEHAVIOURWECANNOWTURNTOTHEDIFFUSIONPROCESSEQUATION8SHOWSTHEPOSSIBLEBREAKDOWNOFTHEVARIOUSFACTORSWHICHCONTRIBUTETOTHEDIFFUSIONPROCESS,IE,HOWTHEPROBABILITYMTTOOPTFORAMODERNEQUIPMENTWHENAFIRMISINVESTING,AF
30、FECTSTHESPEEDOFDIFFUSION,BESIDESTHEEFFECTSOFCHANGESINCAPITALSTOCKTOASSESSTHISRELATIONSHIPBETWEENDIFFUSIONLEVELSDIANDMODERNIZATIONPROBABILITYMTUNDERDIFFERENTCONDITIONSOFINVESTMENTWEHAVEMADEFOURSIMULATIONSUSINGOURESTIMATIONSOFMODERNIZATIONBEHAVIOURALSCHEMESINTHECASEOFTHETEXTILEINDUSTRYSEETABLE7INTHESA
31、MPLEOFFOURCOUNTRIESTHEREARETWOEUROPEANCOUNTRIESANDTWOASIANCOUNTRIESDISPLAYINGANATIONALEFFECTDUMMYVARIABLESARESIGNIFICATIVEINBOTHSUBGROUPSWEFINDCOUNTRIESWITHOPPOSITETRENDSININVESTMENTTWOCOUNTRIES,FRANCEANDITALY,STARTWITHAHIGHLEVELOFDIFFUSIONANDALTHOUGHTHEYDISPLAYOPPOSITETRENDSININVESTMENT,THEIRDIFFUS
32、IONCURVESARECONSTANTLYINCREASINGANDCONCAVE,ANDTHEYCLOSEUPWITHTHEIRASYMPTOTEAFTER25YEARSTHETWOOTHERCOUNTRIESJAPANANDTAIWANDISPLAYANSSHAPECURVE,WHICHMAYBEDUETOTHELOWVALUEOFTHEPROBABILITYTOMODERNIZETHESESIMULATIONSUNDERLINETHEDIFFERENCESINTHEOUTLOOKOFDIFFUSIONPROCESSESBETWEENCOUNTRIESWHERETHEPROBABILIT
33、YTOMODERNIZEINCREASESINKEEPINGWITHTHELEVELSOFDIFFUSIONANDCOUNTRIESWHERETHEPROBABILITYTOMODERNIZEISFROMTHESTARTVERYHIGHOURCOMPARATIVEANALYSISOFTHEPROBABILITYOFOPTINGFORMODERNMACHINESINTHECASEOFTHETEXTILEINDUSTRYSHOWSTHATTHEPROCESSOFMODERNIZATIONDIDNOTREACHTHESAMESTAGEORWASNOTUNIFORMAMONGCOUNTRIESATTH
34、EBEGINNINGOFOURSURVEYTHISPROBABILITYWASALREADYVERYHIGHOVER80PERCENTINTHEUSAANDINMOSTEUROPEANCOUNTRIESBUTITREMAINEDATARATHERLOWLEVELINMOSTASIANCOUNTRIES,JAPANINCLUDEDOVERTHEEIGHTYEARSOFTHESTUDYTHEPROCESS,WHEREBYCHOICEINFAVOUROFNEWMACHINESBECAMETHEONLYRULE,WASFULLYCOMPLETEDINEUROPEANDINTHEUSA,ASWELLAS
35、INTHREEASIANCOUNTRIESHONGKONG,TAIWAN,JAPANONLYKOREAANDCHIEFLYINDIALAGGEDBEHINDTHIS“CATCHINGUP“WASNOTONLYALEARNINGPROCESSDEPENDENTONTIMEBUTINVOLVEDWHATWEHAVECALLEDENVIRONMENTALVARIABLES,IE,THEECONOMICCONDITIONSOFTHEFIRMSOURESTIMATESSUGGESTTHATBOTHTHEBOOMINGPHASESOFTHEBUSINESSCYCLESASMEASUREDTHROUGHCA
36、PACITYUTILIZATIONRATESANDEXPECTATIONSABOUTFUTUREMARKETSASREVEALEDTHROUGHCURRENTEFFORTSOFINVESTMENTSPURREDTHEFREQUENCYOFADOPTINGNEWMACHINESTHEHYPOTHESISOFPOSSIBLEFAILUREINDUCEMENT,IE,THEFACTTHATNOTICEABLEBADECONOMICPERFORMANCECOULDSTIMULATEANDNOTHINDERMODERNIZATION,REMAINSOPENTOFURTHERINVESTIGATIONSB
37、EFOREDRAWINGSOMEGENERALCONCLUSIONSONESHOULD,ASAWARNING,MENTIONSOMEOFTHEINITIALLIMITSOFOURANALYSISOFMODERNIZATIONOFTHETEXTILEINDUSTRYFIRSTOFALL,WEHAVECONSIDEREDONLYONESTAGEOFTHEPRODUCTIONPROCESS,NAMELYWEAVINGTHESTRATEGIESMAYWIDELYDIFFERFROMONESTAGETOTHEOTHERACCORDINGTOTHECOUNTRYFACTOR,COSTSANDACCESST
38、OTHEMARKETSSOONLYFURTHERINVESTIGATIONSONTHEOTHERSTAGESOFPRODUCTIONCOULDREALLYLEADTOANANALYSISOFTHEMODERNIZATIONOFTHETEXTILEINDUSTRYSECONDLY,OURAPPROACHWASSTRICTLYCONCERNEDWITHINCORPORATEDTECHNICALCHANGE,ASEXPRESSEDBYINVESTMENTWHICHASSUMESTHATFORMSOFNONINCORPORATEDTECHNICALCHANGEWEREUNIFORMLYWIDESPRE
39、ADANDHADNEGLIGIBLEEFFECTONTHEFIRMSMODERNIZATIONBEHAVIOURTHEMODELPROPOSEDANDTHEECONOMETRICESTIMATESCONFIRMTHATMODERNIZATIONBEHAVIOURMUSTBECONSIDEREDASTHECOMBINEDOUTCOMEOFBOTHLEARNINGPROCESSESANDMACROECONOMICFACTORSMORESPECIFICALLYITSHOWEDTHATTHEMACROECONOMICDETERMINANTSOFTHEDIFFUSIONOFNEWTECHNIQUESAR
40、ERELATEDBOTHTOTHERHYTHMOFINVESTMENTANDTOTHELEVELOFUTILIZATIONOFINSTALLEDPRODUCTIONCAPACITYONLYACOMBINATIONOFTHESETWODIMENSIONS,IE,THE“TRADITIONAL“MICROECONOMICDETERMINANTSANDTHEMACROECONOMICFACTORSCANHELPUSTOUNDERSTANDTHEDYNAMICSOFPRODUCTIVITYGAINSTHEDIFFUSIONOFNEWTECHNIQUESLEADSDIRECTLYTOHIGHERLEVE
41、LSOFPRODUCTIVITYINTURN,THESEGAINSINPRODUCTIVITYHAVETWOTYPESOFEFFECTONTHEONEHAND,THEYCANHAVEADEMONSTRATINGEFFECTONTHEINVESTMENTBEHAVIOUROFFIRMS,ONTHEOTHERHANDTHEYCANCONTRIBUTETOSTIMULATEOVERALLDEMANDINAGENERALWAYASISASSUMEDINACUMULATIVEGROWTHMODELSEEPETIT,TAHAR1989WHICHENCOURAGESMOREINVESTMENTBOTHFAC
42、TORSLEADTOABOOSTINTHEDIFFUSIONOFNEWTECHNIQUESPOLICYMAKERSAREMOREACQUAINTEDWITHTHEEFFECTOFINVESTMENTONPRODUCTIONANDEMPLOYMENTTHANWITHTHEIMPACTOFTHEIRACTIONONMODERNIZATIONBEHAVIOURITSELFTHISPAPERHASTRIEDTOSHOWTHATBOTHFACTORSCHANNELLINGMODERNIZATIONIE,MACROECONOMICINVESTMENTRHYTHMANDMICROECONOMICBEHAVI
43、OUROFFIRMSCANBEHELPFULLYDISENTANGLEDANDMONITOREDFURTHERRESEARCHANDMEASURESCOULDHELPTOBALANCETHEADVANTAGESOFTHESEINTERDEPENDENTWAYSOFSPEEDINGUPOROFSLOWINGDOWNTHEMODERNIZATIONPROCESS译文纺织工业的技术扩散和投资行为一、简介投资决定的做出会受两个阶级因素的影响，而且会导致了一些最新且重要的商品中包含了科技技术创新的扩散与传播创新的特点和宏观经济环境下的接管操作。本文的目标是解释这些因素在产业水平下被采取的过程中所扮演的角
44、色。在宏观经济环境中，一些公司的运转与需求趋势、相关的产品成本和所有的竞争等因素有关。技术因素，一方面是指新机器的性能（或它们的预期收益），另一方面是指信息的可用性和使用者的技术诀窍。信息的粘性与刚性会导致公司在学习技术方面产生不对称。不同结构的公司要确定与之相适应的扩散过程。在七十年代末八十年代初，无梭织机在棉纺织产业的国际化扩散连接和影响他们采用这两个级别的因素提供了依据。例如，在棉纺织工业的技术和宏观经济背景下的投资，事实上已经面临市场份额分布的巨大变化。市场份额下降的主要是老工业化国家和新兴现代化国家。与此同时，不论在新老工业化国家，使用现代生产资料的比率发生着不同的规则变化。本文分析
45、的这种技术扩散就像在宏观经济条件下，一个有限知识、有限理性的经纪代理人对投资序列决策的结果。在包含一种技术和宏观经济的尺寸下，我们的方法避免了必须依赖流行性分析的学习过程或在微观经济下纯粹合理的投资行为。此外，这种扩散导致采用一种更加内因性的，接近于基于法律的扩散过程。通过一个简单的模型我们要提供一个整体的理论框架去分析在棉纺织工业中采用心得生产资料受到的市场影响和流行因素一样。涉及到实证研究无梭织机在棉纺织工业下的国际传播会在第二部分给出，精心制作的模型理论基础会在第三部分进行阐述。在第四部分，主要集中于分析对投资决策可能引进现代技术的决定。第五部分使我们的结论，包括模拟验证的方法。二、在纺
46、织工业的技术变革在七十年代，棉花种植业经验丰富，专业技术创新的扩散在整个不同阶段的生产过程中，从纺纱到纺织完成，更不用说在投入方面的变化了，如合成纤维混合传统的、天然的、人造的纤维。在纺织工序中，开放式技术至少取代了周边低等和中等的产品；在编织工序中，采用了无梭织布机；在结尾工序中，各种各样的电子装置使漂白、染色、印刷的自动化变得有可能。以改革为基础的基础突破在几十年前就最早被考虑和应用。最近的一次就是在50年代后期，那个开放式纺织工艺被引进到了捷克斯洛伐克。这个研究仅仅是以自己对技术扩散的分析方式来考虑无梭织布机的。因为在90年代初，也就是在这种技术扩散刚刚在纺织工序和完成工序改革中开始被应
47、用的同时，这种技术扩散被广泛应用了。在这个研究中，无梭织布机是很有趣的（可以见1986年8月初版）。一个名叫RUDOLFROSSMAN的德国纺织工程师，在1928年为无梭织布机的基础技术申请了专利。在1931年，他的专利被一家历来从事蒸气和柴油发电机的生产，但对纺织却不十分了解的名为SULZERBROTHER公司所购买。无梭的第一次工业革命迫在眉睫，但是实际上无梭织机开始于50年代。从那时起，一系列的增量的技术改变了梭的重量，同时也是为了用其它设备来代替无梭机，如金属射弹、夹持机以及最近刚兴起的水射流。这些进展被总结在了表1，表1表1展示了多年来的工业生产和每种类型织布机的相应工作。只有当无梭
48、织机到达了标准宽度的运作，它们才可以被认为时传统织机的替代品（见NABSETH,射线，1974）。因此空气织机和水射流织机从60年代起变得合理化，但是从那时起，这个重大改变增加了操作的宽度从最初的5060英寸增加到了标准的130英寸。七十年代末期，现代无梭机是可以以每分钟6节的工作速度，以及超低的噪音和劳力输入进行工作。然而无梭织机的成本几乎是普通织机的两倍。由于纺织机械的自然性，这个价格区分至今已经相当稳定。只有少数的几家公司，他们中的大部分位于瑞士、美国、日本、德国。由于技术技能与了解生产的现代无梭织机已经能够生产出最新版本的产品。无梭织机的优势在于技术上的生产力，、操作成本、织物质量和维
49、护成本比传统自动织机在当前的流通产品的成本花费上减少了3050。按照平均的经济合作与发展组织的劳动力花费，这个成本相当于每台机器花费50000美元。自从70年代中期开始，在每个国家，从技术和经济战略的角度，除了一定的专业生产，采用无梭织机似乎占了完全的主导地位。在70年代到80年代这样一个背景下，通过棉花工艺在现代无梭织机织造公司与传统织机之间进行的选择，提供了重要的机会去分析现代化资本产品的采用，并且去学习和研究技术的阻力。对这种优秀的加工新方法的瞬间扩散造成了阻碍。表2所示，在过去的8年间19771984,在16个国家总共安装的无梭织机的进展情况。这一比率涉及到了设备流动将被记为设备电磁，并且要区别于设备库存量的类似比率。稍后我们把它作为我们的扩散变量来使用。表3显示了DT的进展，为了测量那个被安装上的机器数量，已经由各自的平均的科技产品所测定。在技术选择进化方面的数据显示（见表2）了一个清晰的国际方差。尤其是对于这些国家如日本、印度、台湾、韩国、西班牙。在那里购买无梭织机的比率远远低于在1977，梭织机的平均购买率。表2的数据通常被用来检测简单的回归MABTREND当TREND是（1为19778为1984）一个持续的时间变量时，没有外生变量被引进这个时间序列。由此得出比较明显差异的国家。价格观念的估计截距大部分的国家在1977到1984年间采用无梭织机的概率接近于百分之八十
