1、本科毕业论文外文翻译外文题目THEECONOMICIMPACTSOFRESTRICTINGUKARMSEXPORTS出处INTERNATIONALJOURNALOFSOCIALECONCMICSVOL26NUM6YEAR1999作者STEPHENMARTIN,KEITHHARTLEY,BERNARDSTAFFORD原文THEECONOMICIMPACTSOFRESTRICTINGUKARMSEXPORTSTHEAUTHORSSTEPHENMARTIN,CENTREFORDEFENCEECONOMICS,DEPARTMENTOFECONOMICSANDRELATEDSTUDIES,UNIVERS
2、ITYOFYORK,HESLINGTON,YORK,UKKEITHHARTLEY,CENTREFORDEFENCEECONOMICS,DEPARTMENTOFECONOMICSANDRELATEDSTUDIES,UNIVERSITYOFYORK,HESLINGTON,YORK,UKBERNARDSTAFFORD,CENTREFORDEFENCEECONOMICS,DEPARTMENTOFECONOMICSANDRELATEDSTUDIES,UNIVERSITYOFYORK,HESLINGTON,YORK,UKACKNOWLEDGEMENTSTHISPAPERRESULTSFROMARESEAR
3、CHPROJECTFUNDEDBYTHELEVERHULMETRUSTF/224/YTHEAUTHORSWOULDLIKETOTHANKPIEERWEZEMANOFSIPRIFORSUPPLYINGSOMEOFTHEDATAONUKDEFENCEEXPORTSABSTRACTALTHOUGHTHECOLDWARISOVER,THEDANGERSOFINTERNATIONALARMEDCONFLICTREMAINMULTINATIONALTALKSABOUTRESTRICTINGTHEARMSTRADESTALLEDIN1992IFTHEYRESUME,WHATSHOULDTHEBRITISHA
4、TTITUDEBETOWARDSPARTICIPATIONINAMULTILATERALAGREEMENTTOLIMITARMSEXPORTSWHENSUCHEXPORTSAPPARENTLYMAKEASIGNIFICANTCONTRIBUTIONTOTHEUKECONOMYSENSIBLEPUBLICDEBATESANDCHOICESNEEDINFORMATIONONTHELIKELYECONOMICIMPACTSOFALTERNATIVESCENARIOSTHISPAPEREXAMINESTHELIKELYEFFECTSOFAONETHIRDREDUCTIONINTHEVALUEOFUKA
5、RMSEXPORTSITFINDSTHATBETWEEN13,333AND40,000JOBSWOULDBELOSTANDTHATOFTHOSETHATREMAININTHELABOURFORCEOVERHALFWILLFINDNEWWORKWITHINAYEARTHESOUTHWESTWOULDBETHEWORSTAFFECTEDREGIONLOSING03PERCENTOFALLJOBSDEFENCESALESWOULDBECUTBYBETWEEN3AND8PERCENTAEROSPACEOUTPUTWOULDBECUTBYBETWEEN5AND9PERCENT,ANDTOTALEXPOR
6、TSWOULDFALLBY05PERCENTTHEREWOULDBEINITIALADVERSEEFFECTSBUT,OVERTIME,RESOURCESWOULDBEREALLOCATEDTOOTHERINDUSTRIESANDREGIONSIINTRODUCTIONARMSEXPORTSAREANEMOTIONALTOPICFORTHEUK,ARMSEXPORTSAREASIGNIFICANTPARTOFDEFENCEINDUSTRYSALESTHEYPROVIDEJOBS,SOMEOFWHICHAREINHIGHUNEMPLOYMENTREGIONSANDSOMETOWNSAREDEPE
7、NDENTONTHEEMPLOYMENTGENERATEDBYTHESESALESDEFENCEEXPORTSAREALSOAMAJORCONTRIBUTORTOTHEUKSFOREIGNCURRENCYEARNINGSANDSUPPORTTHEUKSDEFENCEINDUSTRIALBASEHOWEVER,CRITICSPOINTTOTHEMORALITYANDHUMANRIGHTSASPECTSOFTHEARMSTRADEEGUKARMSEXPORTSTOINDONESIA,ITSHIDDENCOSTSTOTHETAXPAYERINTHEEXPORTINGNATIONEGTHROUGHSU
8、PPORTFORTHEPERGAUDAM,ANDTOTHEDIVERSIONOFFUNDSFROMECONOMICDEVELOPMENTINTHEIMPORTINGNATIONDEFENCEEXPORTSMIGHTALSOCONTRIBUTETOREGIONALARMSRACESIIDATAESTIMATINGTHEUKSDEFENCEEXPORTSOBTAININGRELIABLEESTIMATESOFTHEVALUEOFTHEUKSDEFENCEEXPORTSISCOMPLICATEDBYTHEFACTTHATTHEREISNOSINGLE“DEFENCE”INDUSTRYTYPICALL
9、Y,INDUSTRIALCLASSIFICATIONSGROUPTOGETHERDIFFERENTECONOMICACTIVITIESONTHEBASISOFTHEIRSUPPLYSIDECHARACTERISTICSANDBECAUSEDEFENCEDEPARTMENTSPURCHASEGOODSANDSERVICESFROMANUMBEROFVERYDIFFERENTSECTORSOFTHEECONOMY,THEREISNOSINGLE“DEFENCE”INDUSTRYFROMASUPPLYSIDEPERSPECTIVEHARTLEYANDHOOPER,1995INADDITION,OFF
10、ICIALSTATISTICSOFTENREPORTTHEVALUEOFEXPORTORDERSSIGNEDDURINGTHEYEAREGDASA,1997,P18BUTORDERSNEEDNOTNECESSARILYLEADTODELIVERIESORDERSCANBECANCELLED,THEYUSUALLYEXTENDOVERANUMBEROFYEARSAND,IFTHEREISADIRECTOFFSET,THEVALUEOFTHEORDERMIGHTBEFARINEXCESSOFTHEVALUEOFTHEGOODSEXPORTEDMARTIN,1996THUSITISIMPORTANT
11、TODISTINGUISHBETWEENORDERSANDDELIVERIESANDTHISPAPERFOCUSESONANNUALDELIVERIESIIIEMPLOYMENTTOEXAMINETHEINITIALEMPLOYMENTIMPACTSOFACUTINDEFENCEEXPORTSITISUSEFULTOCONSIDERHOWTHEMODCALCULATESTHENATIONALEMPLOYMENTEFFECTSOFTHECURRENTLEVELOFDEFENCESPENDINGTHEMETHODUSEDREQUIRESTHECOMBINATIONOFTWOELEMENTSFIRS
12、T,MODEXPENDITUREWITHUKINDUSTRYISBROKENDOWNBYINDUSTRIALSECTORUSINGTHESTANDARDINDUSTRIALCLASSIFICATIONSECOND,AMEASUREOFSALESPEREMPLOYEEFOREACHINDUSTRYRECEIVINGDEFENCEEXPENDITUREISOBTAINEDEGFROMTHECENSUSOFPRODUCTIONDIVIDINGMODEXPENDITUREINANINDUSTRYBYTHESALESPEREMPLOYEEINTHATINDUSTRYYIELDSANESTIMATEOFT
13、HOSEEMPLOYEDDIRECTLYASARESULTOFDEFENCECONTRACTSDASA,1994INADDITION,WORKISALSOGENERATEDFORSUBCONTRACTORSANDOTHERSWHOSUPPLYTHEMAINCONTRACTORSTHISINDIRECTEMPLOYMENTCANBEESTIMATEDUSINGANINDUSTRYBYINDUSTRYINPUTOUTPUTTABLEWHICHSHOWSTHEEXTENTTOWHICHTHEOUTPUTOFEACHINDUSTRYDEPENDSONINPUTSFROMSUPPLYINGINDUSTR
14、IESTHEMATRIXCANBEUSEDTOTRACETHEPRODUCTIONCHAINBACKTORAWMATERIALSORIMPORTS,ANDTHEINDIRECTEMPLOYMENTOVERTHEWHOLECHAINCANBEESTIMATEDUSINGFIGURESFORSALESPEREMPLOYEEATEACHSTAGEIVTHEDURATIONOFUNEMPLOYMENTINFORMATIONABOUTTHEDURATIONOFUNEMPLOYMENTCANBECULLEDFROMTHEJUVOSCOHORT,ALONGITUDINALDATABASEOFASAMPLEO
15、FCOMPUTERISEDCLAIMSFORUNEMPLOYMENTRELATEDBENEFITSSELECTEDBYREFERENCETOACLAIMANTSNATIONALINSURANCENUMBEREACHTIMEAPERSONWITHARELEVANTNATIONALINSURANCENUMBERMAKESACLAIMFORUNEMPLOYMENTRELATEDBENEFITSTHEIRDETAILSAREADDEDTOTHECOHORTFILETHEJUVOSCOHORTFILEISUPDATEDMONTHLYANDINMAY1995CONTAINEDALMOSTTHREEMILL
16、IONCLAIMRECORDSTHESERELATETOONEMILLIONCLAIMANTSWHOHAVEHADATLEASTONECLAIMFORUNEMPLOYMENTRELATEDBENEFITSSINCE1982BECAUSETHESAMENATIONALINSURANCENUMBERSARESELECTEDEACHMONTH,THESAMEPEOPLEARESELECTED,ANDTHISMAKESITPOSSIBLETOTRACKTHEMINANDOUTOFPERIODSOFUNEMPLOYMENTWARDANDBIRD,1995VTHEREGIONALIMPACTBECAUSE
17、DEFENCEEMPLOYMENTISNOTSPREADEVENLYACROSSTHECOUNTRY,SOMEAREASWILLBEMOREVULNERABLETHANOTHERSFOLLOWINGAREDUCTIONINDEFENCEEXPORTSHOWEVER,INFORMATIONONTHEVALUEOFDEFENCEEXPORTSBYREGIONISNOTDIRECTLYAVAILABLEINSTEAD,THEMODSANNUALREGIONALBREAKDOWNOFDIRECTDEFENCEEMPLOYMENT,UNDERTAKENUSINGLOCATIONCODESONTHEMOD
18、SBILLPAYINGCOMPUTER,CANBEUSEDASASTARTINGPOINTFORTHEANALYSISTHISINFORMATIONCANBESPLITBYINDUSTRYANDTHENCOMBINEDWITHTHEMOSTAPPROPRIATEREGIONALDATAONSALESPEREMPLOYEETOGIVEESTIMATESOFDIRECTEMPLOYMENTBECAUSENOREGIONALINFORMATIONISAVAILABLEFORNONEQUIPMENTSPENDINGORFOREXPORTS,NOREGIONALESTIMATESARENORMALLYM
19、ADEFORTHESETWOCATEGORIESCOLUMNSAANDBOFTABLEVIPROVIDEAREGIONALBREAKDOWNOFDEFENCEEQUIPMENTEXPENDITUREANDASSOCIATEDDIRECTEMPLOYMENTFOR199495CLEARLY,THEREAREWIDEDIFFERENCESINTHEREGIONALDISTRIBUTIONOFDEFENCESPENDINGWITHTHESOUTHEASTBENEFITTINGBYFARTHEMOSTFOLLOWEDBYTHESOUTHWEST,THENORTHANDTHENORTHWESTTHERE
20、MAYBEASTATISTICALBIASTOWARDSTHESOUTHEASTARISINGFROMCASESWHEREBILLSAREPAIDTOHEADOFFICESINLONDONFORWORKACTUALLYDONEOUTSIDETHEREGIONHOWEVER,THEMODDOESNOTBELIEVETHATTHISHEADOFFICEEFFECTISALARGEONEMORGAN,1996VIREGIONAL/LOCALMULTIPLIEREFFECTSLOCALMULTIPLIERSSHOWTHEIMPACTONTHELOCALECONOMYOFANINJECTIONORWIT
21、HDRAWALOFSPENDINGINTOORFROMTHATECONOMYCONSIDERFIRSTANINJECTIONBROUGHTABOUTBYANEXPORTSALESOMEOFTHESALESREVENUERECEIVEDBYTHEPRIMECONTRACTORGENERATESDIRECTEMPLOYMENTTHATIS,EMPLOYMENTWITHINTHEPRIMEITSELFINADDITION,THEPRIMECONTRACTORWILLALSOBUYINGOODSANDSERVICESFROMSUBCONTRACTORSANDTHISEXPENDITUREBYTHEPR
22、IMEGENERATESINDIRECTEMPLOYMENTESTIMATESOFTHETOTALNUMBEROFDIRECTANDINDIRECTJOBSSUPPORTEDBYUKDEFENCEEXPORTSHAVEBEENPRESENTEDABOVESEETABLEIVINADDITION,HOWEVER,FURTHERJOBSWILLBEGENERATEDWHENTHOSEEMPLOYEDEITHERBYTHEPRIMEORELSEWHEREINTHESUPPLYCHAINASARESULTOFTHEEXPORTSALESPENDTHEIRINCOMESONGOODSANDSERVICE
23、SINDUCEDMULTIPLIEREFFECTSTHELEVELOFLOCALEMPLOYMENTINDUCEDBYTHISEXPENDITUREWILLDEPENDONHOWMUCHOFTHEINCOMESOFTHOSEEMPLOYEDASARESULTOFTHEEXPORTSALEISSPENTONGOODSANDSERVICESPRODUCEDWITHINTHEREGIONANDHOWMUCH“LEAKSOUT”OFTHEREGIONTOBESPENTONTHE“IMPORT”OFNONDOMESTICALLYMANUFACTUREDPRODUCTSVIIINDUSTRIALIMPAC
24、TJUSTASTHEGEOGRAPHICALIMPACTOFACUTINUKARMSEXPORTSISLIKELYTOBECONCENTRATEDINCERTAINAREAS,SOTOOISTHEINDUSTRIALIMPACTTHEREISNOREADILYAVAILABLEINDUSTRIALBREAKDOWNOFUKDEFENCEEXPORTSHOWEVER,THEDATAINTABLEICANBEUSEDTOSHOWTHATOFIDENTIFIEDEXPORTS,AEROSPACEPRODUCTSACCOUNTFOROVERTWOTHIRDSOFSUCHOVERSEASSALESAND
25、THATTHISPROPORTIONINCREASESTOOVERFOURFIFTHSIFTHESBACSESTIMATESAREINCLUDEDANDARECORRECTMARTINANDHARTLEY,1998ALTHOUGHTHISSUGGESTSTHATDEFENCEEXPORTSAREDOMINATEDBYAEROSPACEPRODUCTS,ITGIVESNOINDICATIONOFHOWDEPENDENTUKPRODUCTIONISONSUCHEXPORTSUNFORTUNATELY,DETAILEDNATIONALPRODUCTIONDATABYCOMMODITYSUCHASWA
26、RSHIPSORGUNSANDSMALLARMSISNOTAVAILABLEHOWEVER,SOMESALESINFORMATIONBYBROADINDUSTRYHEADINGISAVAILABLEFROMTHECENSUSOFPRODUCTIONAND,BYMATCHINGTHEINDUSTRIALHEADINGSUSEDBYTHISPUBLICATIONWITHTHECOMMODITYGROUPINGSUSEDINTABLEI,ITISPOSSIBLETOCONSTRUCTANINDICATOROFTHEDEGREETOWHICHUKPRODUCTIONISDEPENDENTONEXPOR
27、TSALESVIIITHEBALANCEOFPAYMENTSIN1994UKEXPORTSTOTALLED134664MILLIONWHILEIN1995THISFIGUREINCREASEDTO153077MILLIONUSINGCUSTOMS/SBACDATAWHICHGENERATESTHELARGESTOFTHEFOURSETSOFFIGURESTOMEASUREUKDEFENCEEXPORTSSUGGESTSTHATSUCHEXPORTSACCOUNTEDFOR22PERCENTOFTOTALGOODSEXPORTSIN1994AND31PERCENTIN1995OVERTHEPER
28、IOD198595,DEFENCEEXPORTSASRECORDEDBYCUSTOMS/SBACFIGURESACCOUNTEDFOR32PERCENTOFALLUKGOODSEXPORTSMARTINANDHARTLEY,1998THUSUSINGTHECUSTOMS/SBACFIGURESASAMEASUREOFOVERSEASDEFENCESALESSUGGESTSTHATTHELOSSOFONETHIRDOFDEFENCEEXPORTSWOULDAPPROXIMATELYREDUCETHEUKSEXPORTOFGOODSBYABOUT1PERCENTTOTALEXPORTSOFGOOD
29、SANDSERVICESWOULDBEREDUCEDBYABOUT05PERCENTITISDEBATEABLEWHETHERSUCHARELATIVELYSMALLREDUCTIONWOULDHAVEMUCHEFFECTONSTERLINGSEXCHANGERATEIFANYTHING,THEREWOULDBEDOWNWARDPRESSURE,IMPROVINGTHEINTERNATIONALCOMPETITIVENESSOFOTHERUKEXPORTSWHICHWOULDTENDTOINCREASEANDTHUSOFFSETTHEINITIALLOSSINDEFENCEEXPORTS2MO
30、REOVER,ASHASBEENOUTLINEDINSECTIONIV,NOTALLREDUNDANTDEFENCEWORKERSWILLBEPERMANENTLYUNEMPLOYEDINTHEIRNEWJOBS,SUCHWORKERSWILLBECONTRIBUTINGTOUKEXPORTSFOREXAMPLE,INTHEWORSTCASESCENARIO,AONETHIRDREDUCTIONINDEFENCEEXPORTSWOULDLEADTOTHELOSSOF40,000JOBSEXPORTSPERPERSONEMPLOYEDINMANUFACTURINGIN1995TOTALLEDSO
31、ME37,000THUSIF40PERCENTOFTHE40,000REDUNDANTDEFENCEWORKERSFINDNEWWORKWITHINONEYEARANDEACHOFTHESENEWPOSTSINCREASESUKEXPORTSBY37,000,THENTHEINITIALCUTINUKEXPORTSOF,SAY,ABOUT13BILLIONWILLBEOFFSETWITHINONEYEARBYJUSTUNDER600MILLIONWORTHOFADDITIONALEXPORTSPRODUCEDBYFORMERDEFENCEWORKERSINTHEIRNEWJOBSIXCONCL
32、USIONTHISPAPERHASEXAMINEDTHELIKELYINITIALEMPLOYMENT,INDUSTRIAL,REGIONALANDTRADEEFFECTSOFEITHERAONEORTWOTHIRDSREDUCTIONINTHELEVELOFUKARMSEXPORTSTHEMAINFINDINGSARESUMMARISEDINTABLEVIIIDEFININGTHE“NORMAL”OR“BENCHMARK”LEVELOFDEFENCEEXPORTSISNOTATRIVIALEXERCISEBECAUSEDIFFERENTSERIESADOPTDIFFERENTDEFINITI
33、ONSOFWHATCONSTITUTESANARMS/DEFENCEEXPORTTHESBAC,FOREXAMPLE,EMPHASISESTHEFINALCUSTOMERRATHERTHANTHETYPEOFPRODUCTWHEREASCUSTOMSANDEXCISEFIGURESFOCUSONTHOSEPRODUCTSWITHAPURELYMILITARYAPPLICATIONTHUSSIPRI,WHOSEFIGURESAREDERIVEDFROMAPRODUCTBASEDDEFINITIONOFWHATCONSTITUTESADEFENCEEXPORT,SUGGESTTHATUKARMSE
34、XPORTSAVERAGED13BILLIONOVERTHEPERIOD198595WHILECUSTOMS/SBACFIGURES,WITHAMUCHBROADER,MORECUSTOMERBASEDDEFINITIONOFDEFENCEEXPORTS,SUGGESTANNUALEXPORTSOFOVER4BILLIONTHESEFIGURESSUGGESTTHATAONETHIRDREDUCTIONINUKARMSEXPORTSWOULDLEADTOALOSSOFBETWEEN13,333AND40,000JOBSBOTHOFTHESEARELARGENUMBERSBUTNEEDTOBEV
35、IEWEDWITHINTHECONTEXTOFADYNAMICECONOMYWHEREOLDJOBSARECONSTANTLYBEINGDESTROYEDANDNEWONESCREATEDTHUSIN1996THEREWEREJUSTUNDER35MILLIONNEWCLAIMSFORUNEMPLOYMENTBENEFITANDOVER37MILLIONCLAIMSWEREWITHDRAWNLABOURMARKETTRENDS,MARCH1997,PS36MOREOVER,THOSETHATLOSETHEIRJOBWOULDNOTREMAINPERMANENTLYUNEMPLOYEDTHEEV
36、IDENCESUGGESTSTHATONEFIFTHWILLLEAVETHELABOURFORCEEGTOTAKERETIREMENTANDTHATOFTHOSETHATREMAINABOUTONEHALFWILLHAVEFOUNDANEWPOSTWITHINONEYEARHOWEVER,AFURTHERONETHIRDWILLTAKEOVERTWOYEARSTOFINDANEWJOBANDITISATTHISGROUPTHATANYRETRAINING/JOBSEARCHPOLICYINITIATIVESHOULDBEDIRECTEDNONETHELESS,THEGENERALPOINTRE
37、MAINSREDUCTIONSINUKARMSEXPORTSWILLHAVEINITIALADVERSEEFFECTSBUT,OVERTIME,RESOURCESWILLBEREALLOCATEDTOOTHERINDUSTRIESANDREGIONSATTHEREGIONALLEVELTHEIMPACTOFACUTINARMSEXPORTSISUNLIKELYTOBENOTICEDOUTSIDEOFTHENORTHWEST,THESOUTHEASTANDTHESOUTHWESTEVENINTHEWORSTAFFECTEDREGION,THESOUTHWEST,ARMSEXPORTSSUSTAI
38、NONLY1PERCENTOFALLJOBSHOWEVER,PRODUCTIONISNOTSPREADEVENLYACROSSANYGIVENREGIONBUTISMORETYPICALLYCONCENTRATEDINASMALLNUMBEROFTOWNSANDITISHERE,ATTHELOCALLEVEL,THATTHEIMPACTOFANYCUTINARMSEXPORTSISMOSTLIKELYTOBEFELTEGINTHEFORMOFPLANTCLOSURESANDWHERESOMEFORMOFPUBLICPOLICYINTERVENTIONISMOSTLIKELYTOBENEEDED
39、INDUSTRIALLY,THEAEROSPACESECTORISLIKELYTOBETHEWORSTAFFECTED,ACCOUNTING,ASITDOES,FORBETWEENTWOTHIRDSANDFOURFIFTHSOFALLUKDEFENCEEXPORTSTOTALNATIONALPRODUCTIONINTHISSECTORISLIKELYTOBECUTBYBETWEEN5AND9PERCENTFORAONETHIRDCUTINEXPORTSTHOSEEMPLOYEDINTHEAEROSPACEINDUSTRYTENDTOBERELATIVELYHIGHLYSKILLEDANDTHI
40、SMAYMAKEITEASIERFORTHEMTOFINDNEWPOSTSTHANTHOSEMADEREDUNDANTFROMOTHERINDUSTRIESEGCOALTHATHAVEEXPERIENCEDSIGNIFICANTOUTPUTREDUCTIONSINRECENTYEARSRECENTEVIDENCEFROMTHESOUTHWESTSUGGESTSTHATINTHEIRNEWJOBSMANYREDUNDANTDEFENCEWORKERS,PARTICULARLYQSES,DRAWONEXPERIENCEGAINEDINTHEIRDEFENCEWORKANDTHUSCONCERNSA
41、BOUTTHELOSSOFCRITICALLABOURSKILLSMIGHTBEEXAGGERATEDAONETHIRDREDUCTIONINDEFENCEEXPORTSWOULDREDUCETOTALEXPORTSBY05PERCENTINITIALLYTHISWILLHAVELITTLEIMPACTONTHEBALANCEOFPAYMENTSAND,OVERTIME,THEREDUNDANTDEFENCERESOURCESWILLBEREALLOCATEDTOOTHERACTIVITIESWHICHWILLGENERATENEWEXPORTSITSHOULDBEEMPHASISED,OFC
42、OURSE,THATTHEISSUESOUTLINEDABOVEFOCUSONTHEMOREREADILYQUANTIFIABLEIMPACTSOFACUTINUKARMSEXPORTSOTHERMOREELUSIVETOPICS,SUCHASTHEIMPACTONTHEDOMESTICPROCUREMENTOFMILITARYEQUIPMENTEGCOSTS,CHOICEOFSUPPLIERANDTHEDIRECTANDHIDDENCOSTSOFSUPPORTINGUKDEFENCEEXPORTSEGDESOECGDANDOTHERCOVERTSUBSIDIESSUCHASFUNDINGFO
43、RTHEPERGAUDAM,TOGETHERWITHTHEMOSTAPPROPRIATEPUBLICPOLICYRESPONSETOTHESEISSUES,WILLBETHESUBJECTOFFUTURERESEARCHNOTES1FOREXAMPLE,FORYORKSHIREANDHUMBERSIDETHEMODELSUGGESTSTHATDEFENCERELATEDEXPORTEMPLOYMENTACCOUNTSFORABOUT270JOBSIFTHE2,000PEOPLEEMPLOYEDATBROUGHWORKINGONHAWKSISADDEDTOTHISFIGURETHENTOTALD
44、EFENCERELATEDEXPORTEMPLOYMENTINTHEREGIONISINCREASEDTO2,270BUTTHISISSTILLLESSTHAN02PERCENTOFALLEMPLOYMENT2TOTHEEXTENTTHATIMPORTEDCOMPONENTSAREINCORPORATEDINTOUKEXPORTSTHENTHEDETERIORATIONINTHEBALANCEOFPAYMENTSWILLBELESSTHANTHATQUOTED译文英国武器出口限制对经济的影响摘要尽管冷战已经结束，国际武装冲突的危险依然存在。有关限制军火贸易的六方会谈在1992年陷入停顿。如果他
45、们再继续，那么在多边协议时英国方面在面对限制武器出口这个问题时应该持什么样的态度，特别是武器出口对当时的英国经济做出了如此重大的贡献明智的选择，需要公开辩论和对替代方案可能产生的经济影响的信息。本文探讨在英国军火出口货值减少三分之一后的可能影响。报告认为，将会有13333到40000的人将会丧失工作，对那些仍然有一半以上的劳动力将在一年内找到新工作。西南部将是受影响最严重地区，损失占全部工作的03将通过削减3至8的国防销售额使航空航天产量由5提升至9，出口总额将下降05。对经济会有不利影响，但最初的一段时间内，资源将被重新分配给其他行业和地区。一、导言在英国，武器的销售出口是国防工业的重要组成
46、部分，他们提供就业机会，其中是在失业率高的地区，及一些城镇是依赖这些销售产生的就业。国防出口对英国的外汇收入也是一个重要因素，支持英国的国防工业基地。然而，批评者指出的道德和人权的武器交易（例如英国军火出口到印尼），其隐藏的成本，在出口国（通过对PERGAU支援，如水坝）纳税人方面，并从经济发展的进口国挪用资金。国防出口可能也有助于区域军备竞赛。二、数据英国的国防出口估计获取了英国的国防产品出口货值可靠的估计是复杂的，事实上，没有任何单一的“国防”产业。通常情况下，集团工业分类在一起的不同在于对他们的供应方特点的基础上，因为国防部门购买商品，从一个非常不同的经济服务经济活动的部门，从供应方角度
47、来说不存在单一的“国防”产业（哈特利和胡珀，1995）。此外，官方统计经常报道的出口订单价值年内（如达沙，1997年，第18页）签署，但订单不一定导致交货（订单可以取消），他们通常在几年扩大数量，如果有一个直接的偏移，订单的价值可能远远在价值出口的货物（马丁，1996年）之上。因此，重要的是要区分的订单和交付并在此基础上注意年度交货的重点。三、就业为了探讨在防务出口削减它是有用的考虑，如何计算出英国国防部的国防开支现有水平，国家就业的初步就业影响。采用的方法需要两个要素的组合。首先，与英国国防部的开支是细分行业的工业用标准工业分类部门。二是每名员工的销售行业是获得每个接收国防开支的措施（从生产
48、人口普查例）。在一个行业划分国防部开支占雇员的销售收益率是该行业的就业作为防御的合同（达沙，1994年）直接造成的估计。此外，工作也产生了分包商和其他的主要供应商。这种间接的就业能够使用业界估计按产业投入产出表显示的程度，每个产业产值按供应行业的投入而定。该矩阵可用于跟踪生产链回原料或进口，在整个链条的间接就业能够估计每名雇员使用在每一个阶段的销售数字。四、失业的持续时间对失业持续时间的信息可从JUVOS扑杀队列，一个供参考选择索赔人的国民保险号码与失业有关的福利索赔样品纵向电脑数据库。每一个有关的国民保险号码的时间，使一个人失业有关他们的详细资料将被添加到队列文件的利益诉求。队列文件的JUV
49、OS每月更新，在1995年5月，几乎包含三百万理赔纪录。自1982年以来至少有一个与失业有关的福利要求索赔涉及到百万。由于相同的国民保险号码，每月选择，同样的人都被选中，这使得它可以跟踪他们的失业（WARD和伯德，1995年）期间进行。五、区域影响由于防御就业不是均匀地分布在全国各地，部分地区会比其他地方在出口减少后更容易防守。然而，在各地区的防务出口价值的资料不是直接可用。相反，英国国防部的年度区域细分的直接防御工作，开展使用国防部的帐单支付电脑位置代码，可以用来作为分析的出发点。这些信息可以按行业分割，然后在销售上，让每位员工的直接就业估计与最适宜的区域数据相结合。由于没有区域信息可用于非设备支出或出口，估计通常没有区域会在这两个类别。列（A）和（二）表六提供国防设备开支区域划分及19941995年度有关的直接就业机会。显然，国防受惠消费的区域分布差别很大迄今为止最大的是东南与西南地区，华北和西北其次。六、区域/本地的乘数效应地方乘上显示的一成（或）的经济开支注射（或撤销）的当地经济的影响。首先考虑打针所带来的大约出口销售。由主承包商收到的一些销售收入产生直接就业（即在黄金本身就业）。此外，主承包商也将买进商品和分包商的服务，这由总支出产生间接的就业机会。对由英国防务出口的支持（直接和间接）的职位总数估计已提交以上（见表四）。此外，进
