1、外文题目GLOBALIZATIONANDTHECRISIS出处2009MERAGEUCIEDU作者JNOCERA原文GLOBALIZATIONANDTHECRISISFUNDAMENTALLY,ISEETHECRISISASTHERESULTOFFLAWEDREGULATIONANDPERVERSEINCENTIVESINFINANCIALMARKETSREGULATORSBOUGHTINTOTHEARGUMENTSOFTHEREGULATEDTHATFINANCIALINSTITUTIONSCOULDSAFELYOPERATEWITHATHINNERCAPITALCUSHIONTHEYACC
2、EPTEDTHEPREMISETHATCAPITALADEQUACYCOULDBEGAUGEDONTHEBASISOFTHEBANKSINTERNALMODELSAND,WHERETHESEWEREABSENT,RATINGSOFSECURITIESPROVIDEDBYCOMMERCIALCREDITRATINGAGENCIES,NOTWITHSTANDINGTHEINCENTIVESFORTHEPROPRIETORSOFTHEFORMERTOTWEAKTHEIRMODELSTOMINIMIZEESTIMATEDRISKSANDCAPITALREQUIREMENTSANDTHETENDENCY
3、FORTHELATTER,ASINVESTMENTADVISORSASWELLASISSUERSOFRATINGS,TOFALLPREYTOCONFLICTSOFINTERESTTHEREGIMETHATRESULTEDWASCAPITALPOORANDDANGEROUSLYPROCYCLICALREGULATORSNEGLECTEDLIQUIDITY,ASSUMINGAWAYPROBLEMSINWHOLESALEMONEYMARKETSBANKSWEREALLOWEDTOHIDERISKSINCONDUITSANDSTRUCTUREDINVESTMENTVEHICLESANDWINDOWDR
4、ESSTHEIRBALANCESHEETSAGENCYPROBLEMSFLOURISHEDATEACHSTAGEOFTHEORIGINATEANDDISTRIBUTEPROCESSMORTGAGEBROKERSHADNOFIDUCIARYRESPONSIBILITYTOHOMEOWNERSBANKSNOTKEEPINGAPARTICIPATIONINTHECOMPLEXDERIVATIVESECURITIESTHEYORIGINATEDFELTNORESPONSIBILITYTOINVESTORSTHESTRUCTUREOFCOMPENSATIONENCOURAGEDBANKEXECUTIVE
5、STOROLLTHEDICE,DISREGARDINGTHEIMPLICATIONSOFTHEIRACTIONSFORTHESURVIVALOFTHEFIRMANDTHEREGULATORSAVERTEDTHEIREYESIFYOUWANTMYSUMMARYOFTHECRISIS,THEREYOUHAVEIT,INONEPARAGRAPHOFCOURSE,THISSUMMARYGOESONLYANINCHBELOWTHESURFACETHEDEEPERQUESTIONISHOWTHESEINDEFENSIBLECIRCUMSTANCESWEREALLOWEDTOARISEHEREIWOULDC
6、ITEAPOWERFULIDEOLOGYOFDEREGULATIONSTRETCHINGBACKTOATLEASTTHEREAGANTHATCHERYEARSIWOULDCITEEXCESSIVECONFIDENCEINQUANTITATIVEMETHODSOFRISKMANAGEMENT,VALUEATRISK,ANDOFASSETPRICING,THEBLACKSHOLESMODELIAMNOTACQUITTINGTHEACADEMY,INOTHERWORDSWETOOFELLPREYTOAPOWERFULCOLLECTIVEPSYCHOLOGYIWOULDCITETHEINTENSIFI
7、CATIONOFCOMPETITION,WITHTHEGLASSSTEAGALLRESTRICTIONSSTARTINGTOCRUMBLEEVENBEFOREPASSAGEOFTHEGRAMMBLILEYLEACHACTIN1999,ENCOURAGINGBANKSTOTAKEONADDITIONALLEVERAGEINTHEIRDESPERATIONTOMAINTAINNORMALRETURNSFINALLY,IWOULDCITETHECONSCIOUSPOLICYOFTHEBUSHADMINISTRATIONTOSTARVETHEREGULATORSOFHUMANANDFINANCIALR
8、ESOURCESITISHARDTOUNDERSTANDTHEPRECRISISBEHAVIOROFTHESECURITIESANDEXCHANGECOMMISSIONANYOTHERWAYTHERESMYSUMMARYOFTHEDEEPERCAUSESOFTHECRISIS,AGAININONEPARAGRAPHWHATABOUTGLOBALIZATION,WHICHISWHATIWASINFACTASKEDTOTALKABOUTTHEREARETWOCONNECTIONSTHEOBLIQUECONNECTIONISBETWEENGLOBALIZATIONANDTHECOMPETITIVEP
9、RESSURETHATENCOURAGEDEXCESSIVERISKTAKINGFINANCIALINSTITUTIONSSTRETCHEDFORRISKANDGAMBLEDFORSURVIVALASTHEIRPROFITMARGINSWERESQUEEZEDBYGROWINGCOMPETITIONTHEINTENSIFICATIONOFCOMPETITIVEPRESSUREREFLECTEDTHEINCREASINGABILITYOFCOMMERCIALANDINVESTMENTBANKSTOINFRINGEONONEANOTHERSTURFITREFLECTEDTHEGROWINGOVER
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11、OHEAVILYINVESTEDINTOXICSECURITIESIREGARDTHISASANINDIRECTBUTIMPORTANTCONSEQUENCEOFFINANCIALGLOBALIZATIONTHESUBSIDIARYCONNECTIONISBETWEENGLOBALIMBALANCESANDTHEASSETBUBBLEASIHAVESAID,THEMATCHTHATIGNITEDTHEFIRELAYELSEWHERE,INLAXREGULATIONANDPERVERSEINCENTIVESINFINANCIALMARKETSBUTGLOBALIMBALANCESPOUREDFU
12、ELONTHEBLAMES,LEADINGTOAONCEEVERYHUNDREDYEARFIRESTORMWITHSIGNIFICANTAMOUNTSOFFOREIGNCAPITALAFFICIALCAPITALINPARTICULARAFLOWINGTOWARDTHEUNITEDSTATES,LONGTRMINTERESTRATESWERELOWERTHANOTHERWISETHIS,OFCOURSE,ISMRGREENSPANSOWNXPLANATIONFORHISNOWNOTORIOUSBONDMARKETCONUNDRUMTHELOWLEVELOFLONGRATESCOURAGEDHO
13、USEHOLDSTOASSUMEADDITIONALMORTGAGEDEBTITENCOURAGEDPORTFOLIOMANAGERSTOSTRETCHFORYIELDITENCOURAGEDADDITIONALRISKTAKINGBYFUNDMANAGERSWHOFOUNDITINCREASINGLYDIFFICULTTOMEETHISTORICALBENCHMARKSTHEQUESTIONISHOWMUCHDIFFERENCETHECAPITALFLOWSASSOCIATEDWITHGLOBALIMBALANCESMADEFORTHECOURSEOFTHECRISISIREGARDTHEM
14、ASSECONDARYFACTORSAWHICHISNOTTODISMISSTHEMBUTONLYTOPUTTHEMINTHEIRPLACEEMPIRICALSTUDIESPUTTHEIMPACTOFFOREIGNINFLOWSON1USTREASURYYIELDSIN20046AT50TO90BASISPOINTSTHEINCENTIVESCREATEDBYTHISFALLINLONGRATESNODOUBTENCOURAGEDTHEEXCESSESTHATCULMINATEDINTHECRISISSTILL,IWOULDASKHOWDIFFERENTWOULDTHECRISISHAVEBE
15、ENHADUSLONGRATESBEEN50OR70OREVEN90BASISPOINTSHIGHERNOTTHATDIFFERENT,IWOULDSUBMITAGENCYANDREGULATORYPROBLEMSINFINANCIALMARKETS,INCONJUNCTIONWITHWHATWOULDHAVESTILLBEENARELATIVELYPERMISSIVECREDITMARKETENVIRONMENT,WOULDSTILLHAVEPRODUCEDAMAJORBUBBLEANDTHENSIGNIFICANTDISLOCATIONSWHENITBURSTWHATDOIEXPECTNO
16、WINTERMSOFREGULATORYREFORMIEXPECTADRAWNOUTPROCESSWEHAVEYETTOFULLYEXCAVATETHESUBTERRANEANFOUNDATIONSOFTHECRISISANDUNTILWEDOSO,WEWILLBEUNCERTAINABOUTWHICHFUNDAMENTSTOREINFORCETHEPRESUMPTIONINTHEDODDBILLANDTHEOBAMAADMINISTRATIONPLANFORFINANCIALREFORMTHATWESHOULDBANPROPRIETARYTRADINGINCOMMERCIALBANKSRES
17、TSONTHEPRESUMPTIONTHATTHEIMPLICITSUBSIDYRECEIVEDFROMDEPOSITINSURANCEENCOURAGEDALLMANNEROFEXCESSESBYTHOSEBANKSPROPRIETARTRADERSITDOESNOTRESTONACTUALEVIDENCEOFACONNECTIONIMNOTSURETHEEVIDENCEISTHEREMOREGENERALLY,IWOULDSUBMITTHATTHEDIRECTIONOFREFORMSHOULDBEGUIDEDBYEVIDENCE,NOTPRESUMPTIONINTERMSOFEVIDENC
18、E,THEVALUKASREPORTONLEHMANBROS,RELEASEDTWOMONTHSAGO,IS2ITDESCRIBEDAFINANCIALINSTITUTIONENGAGEDINTHEMOSTBLATANTWINDOWDRESSINGANEYEOPENEROFITSBALANCESHEETANDARBITRAGINGREGULATIONTOTHEGREATESTPOSSIBLEEXTENTITDESCRIBEDASECURITIESANDEXCHANGECOMMISSIONSECANDFEDERALRESERVEBANKOFNEWYORKTHATHADSUPERVISORSEMB
19、EDDEDINLEHMANBROSANDHADEVENBEENWARNEDBYONEOFTHEFIRMSCOMPETITORSTHATITSPRACTICESWEREJEOPARDIZINGTHESTABILITYOFTHESYSTEM,ANDYETSTILLTOOKNOCORRECTIVEACTIONTHESECHASANEXCUSE,OFCOURSEITWASSTARVEDOFRESOURCESFORPOLITICAL3REASONS,SOMETHINGTHATHADBEENFLAGGEDBYTHEGENERALACCOUNTINGOFFICEALREADYIN2002INTHISSENS
20、E,INADEQUATEENFORCEMENTANDREGULATORYARBITRAGEWEREATTHEROOTOFTHECRISISBUTIFTHISISRIGHT,THENTHEREARENOPARTICULARIMPLICATIONSINTERMSOFFINANCIALREREGULATIONORDEGLOBALIZATIONWEDONTNEEDNEWREGULATIONTHEMINTHINGWENEEDTODOISTOENFORCETHEREGULATIONSALREADYONTHEBOOKSNOWHEREMORESO,OFCOURSE,THANINMYCOUNTRYHOWEVER
21、,THEDIFFICULTIESOFEFFECTIVELYCOORDINATINGREGULATIONACROSSCOUNTRIESSUGGESTTHATTHEREMAYBEPRESSURETOMAKEFINANCEAMORENATIONALAFFAIRCROSSBORDERFINANCIALINSTITUTIONSWILLBETOLERATEDONLYWHERETHERISKSTHEYCREATECANBESAFELYMANAGEDANDTHEYCANBEMANAGEDONLYWHERETHEREISAGREEMENTONTHERISKSREQUIRINGREGULATORYCOOPERAT
22、IONINPRACTICE,HOWEVER,NATIONALOFFICIALSCONTINUETODISAGREEABOUTTHENATUREOFTHEPROBLEMEUROPEANOFFICIALSSEEHEDGEFUNDSANDPRIVATEEQUITYFIRMSASSIGNIFICANTTHREATSTOFINANCIALSTABILITYANDRECOMMENDCLAMPINGDOWNONTHEIROPERATIONSUSANDUKOFFICIALSDISAGREETHEEUCANGOAHEADANDAPPLYSTRICTREGULATIONTOHEDGEFUNDSANDPRIVATE
23、EQUITYFIRMS,BUTTHELATTERWILLTHENSIMPLYHAVEANINCENTIVETORELOCATEINTHEUNITEDSTATESEUOFFICIALSHAVEINDICATEDINTHISCASETHATTHEYWILLADOPTREGULATIONSLIMITINGTHEABILITYOFEUROPEANRESIDENTSTOINVESTINFOREIGNHEADQUARTEREDHEDGEFUNDSANDPRIVATEEQUITYFIRMSTHISISASGOODAORBAD,DEPENDINGONYOURVIEWAANEXAMPLEOFTHEDYNAMIS
24、OFFINANCIALDEGLOBALIZATIONASONECANIMAGINEANDEVENWHERETHEREISAGREEMENT,THEREAREPROBLEMSTHEREISCONSENSUSINBOTHTHEUSANDEUROPE,FORINSTANCE,ONTHENEEDFORANORDERLYRESOLUTIONMECHANISMASATHIRDWAY,BESIDESUNCONTROLLEDBANKRUPTCYANDBAILOUTS,FORDEALINGWITHTROUBLEDBANKS,BANKHOLDINGCOMPANIES,ANDNONBANKFINANCIALFIRM
25、SBUTMANYOFOURBIGBANKS,BANKHOLDINGCOMPANIESANDNONBANKFINANCIALFIRMSAREINTERNATIONAL,EVENGLOBAL,INSCOPETHEBESTEFFORTSOFTHEBASELCOMMITTEESCROSSBORDERBANKRESOLUTIONGOUPNOTWITHSTANDING,THEREHASBEENLITTLEPROGRESSINCREATINGAGLOBALRESOLUTIONMECHANISMIFREGULATORSARESERIOUSABOUTCREATINGANORDERLYRESOLUTIONMECH
26、ANISMASANALTERNATIVETOUNCONTROLLEDBANKRUPTCYANDBAILOUTS,THEYHAVENOCHOICEFORTHETIMEBEINGBUTTODOSOATTHENATIONALLEVELTHEGEOGRAPHICALDOMAINOFBIGFINANCIALORGANIZATIONSWILLTHEREFOREHAVETOBEMADETOMORECLOSELYCOINCIDEWITHTHEDOMAINOFTHERESPECTIVERESOLUTIONAUTHORITIESIWOULDNOTETHATTHECROSSBORDERBANKRESOLUTIONG
27、ROUPRECOMMENDSMAKINGLARGEFINANCIALENTITIESLESSCOMPLEXANDINTERCONNECTEDBYIMPLICATIONITISPOINTINGTOTHENEEDTOMAKETHEMLESSINTERNATIONAL外文题目GLOBALIZATIONANDTHECRISIS出处2009MERAGEUCIEDU作者JNOCERA译文全球化和危机作者HANSWERNER要求我们考虑全球化和金融危机之间的关系。可是他这么做,我表示相当怀疑,因为我是一个有国际视野的经济学家并且国际经济全球化会不会因为这件事情而发生大的改变。尽管我抱着相当的期待,但危机的根
28、源的,在我看来,是在其他地方。基本上我看到金融危机的成因,是不健全的金融监管和有害的奖励,在三月研究中监管机构里我了解了一整套论点,金融机构可以安全地运作,凭借更轻微的资本缓冲。他们在接受该模式前提下,内部资本充足率可能是衡量危机的基础,对银行,在这些人缺席的情况下,前者提供的证券评级由信用评级机构和经营者的激励机制来调整自己的估计模型,以尽量减少风险和资本要求,并作为投资资本,顾问的趋势,后者的收视率是很高的,以及发行人的,堕入利益的冲突。该制度是资本危机而导致的贫穷和危险的顺周期。监管机构忽视资本的流动性,假定在整个市场的问题以外销售的钱。允许银行隐瞒资本的的风险,管道和结构性投资和窗口装
29、饰自己的资产负债表。代理问题在每个进程蓬勃发展阶段的创立和风险管理的缺口。抵押贷款经纪人对于房主没有信托责任。银行不保持证券参与复杂的衍生起源觉得他们没有责任对投资者。补偿结构的鼓励银机制行执行将延迟掷骰子的行为方式,无视公司的生存的影响对他们的行动视不理性的。而因为危险则避开他们的眼睛。如果你想知道我的危机总结,那么这个结论将在下一段展开。当然,这只是从表面的去总结这个问题的实质。更深层的问题是如何将这些站不住脚的情况合理的解释发生在允许的情况下。在此,我举一个解除管制的很重要的的意识形态的例子,至少可以追溯到里根,撒切尔的年代。我想举一个在风险过度时期风险管理定量的方法,价值和资产定价,黑
30、肖尔斯模型。我不是在演艺学院学习的,换句话说,我们过于强大的牺牲品是导致心理障碍的一个原因。我想举的例子是竞争加剧,而该种玻璃斯蒂格尔法案限制启动之前,荷兰国际集团崩溃,甚至在格拉姆法案的通过,比利雷利奇在1999年,鼓励银行在绝望中采取额外的杠杆主义恢复正常的状况。最后,我想引用布什政府的浓度思维政策,饿死的财政资源,人力和监管。这是很难理解的对于证券和交易委员会金融危机前的行为的任何其他方式。还有我的姐姐总结的深层原因,相关于一体。怎么样的全球化,这是我所需要讨论的重点,有两个连接。连接全球化与竞争压力,鼓励过度冒险。金融机构的风险和生存拉伸赌博作为自己的利润空间被挤压的竞争越来越大。竞争
31、加剧的压力反映了投资银行越来越有能力的商业和侵犯彼此的地盘。它反映了越来越多的银行和中介之间的重叠和双进程证券化市场造成的。但另一个压力来源是国际交易,全球化的融资,竞争欧洲标准杆边境跨度随着越来越多的单一市场主导而向全球蔓延的。这不是巧合,证券昏昏欲睡的发展引发了如此大量投资研究。我认为全球化这个经济飞跃的背后也衍生了危险的因素。辅助连接在全球资产和财产泡影之间。我说,导致在别处被放置的火药的比赛,在松驰章程和不合情理的刺激着金融市场上的不合理的问题的接连出现。但是,一人失衡应该归咎于燃料的泄漏,从而导致曾经每百年的大爆发。随着大量外资(官方资本在特定用途上)各国在美国流动,长期下降否则美国
32、东部时间利率低于所有的利率。这当然是格林斯潘自己的解释,他现在很难再用以前的定义来解释债券市场的难题。使用低水平的长期利率鼓励家庭承担更多的抵押贷款债务。它鼓励投资组合经理绵延产量。它鼓励采取额外的风险基准,基金经理发现它越来越难以满足历史的要求。问题是有多少差别的资本流动危机相关的课程与全球的不平衡作出相对应的贡献。我认为他们的职权范围为次要因素这是不是解雇他们的原因,但他们只是把他们的地方给挪到了另一个危险的边缘。实证研究提出克雷恩和2009年马丁瓦诺克2009年外资流入的影响,美国国库券收益率在20042006年,在50至90个基点。长期利率由创建的激励机制,今年秋季无疑鼓励超额的那场危
33、机中达到高潮。不过,我会问如何将危机的不同于美国长期利率50个或70甚至90个基点,没有什么不同,我想提出类似于这么的一个问题。监管机构和金融市场环境中存在的问题,结合市场仍然会是怎样被一个相对宽松的信贷,仍会产生重大的泡沫,然后一旦爆发重大混乱。改革是我希望在监管方面表现出更坚挺的一面。我期待一个旷日持久的过程。在美国,我们现在已经通过了弗兰克多德金融改革法案,总统奥巴马签署。但是,现在由美国证券交易委员会和其他机构起草法律的规定需要申请。巴塞尔银行监管委员会发布了一个缓冲建议为反周期资金,但没有说明如何反周期性有多大。巴塞尔委员会在资本比率的补充规定,将用一个简单的杠杆,但它并没有说明问题
34、的比率研究。整个国家的问题是很困难达成的协议和调控,安泰表明,有可能是压力的原因,使资金更加加剧了国家的事务。跨境金融机构将被容忍的风险是不多的,只有在他们可以安全地创建人类的机制之后。他们可以控制的只有在有协议公司监管要求的风险之下。然而在实践中,国家官员继续对这一问题有不同意见。欧盟官员认为,对冲基金和财政稳定重大威胁这私人股本公司作为经营下来,并建议加紧监管。美国和英国官员不同意。欧盟可以继续采用严格的方式监管,以对冲基金和私人股本公司而言,而后者则简单地将有动力迁往美国。欧盟官员表示在这种情况下,他们将采取的规章制度系统蒸发散能力限制了居民投资于外国的欧洲总部设在对冲基金和革命制度党的私人股权公司。这是好也是坏,取决于你的看法例如可以对一个冰期关于全球化的动态想象。即便是在有协议,有概率的柠檬市场。还有就是共识,无论是美国和欧洲,例如关于救助需要一个有秩序的共振机制,作为第三方方式,除了不加控制的破产,为公司处理问题银行,银行控股,和非银行冰期公司。但是,我们的公司,很多大银行,银行和非银行金融控股公司是国际集团,双向,甚至全球范围内,银行集团决议作出了最大努力了巴塞尔委员会的跨境尽管如此,出现了一些进展,解决机制创造一个全球性的集团公司。