1、外文题目PROMOTIONALROLEOFMICROCREDITEVIDENCEFROMTHEGRAMEENBANKOFBANGLADESH出处JOURNALOFINTERNATIONALDEVELOPMENT作者MDABULBASHER原文PROMOTIONALROLEOFMICROCREDITEVIDENCEFROMTHEGRAMEENBANKOFBANGLADESHABSTRACTTHISPAPERINVESTIGATESWHETHERTHEINCOMEAUGMENTINGROLEOFMICROCREDITISATTRIBUTABLEONLYTOINCREASEDPARTICIPATIO
2、NOFTHEBORROWERINECONOMICACTIVITIESORSWITCHTOMOREPRODUCTIVEACTIVITIESALSOTHEPAPERPROVIDESAFRAMEWORKTOANALYZETHISQUESTIONINABSENCEOFANYLONGITUDINALDATABYUSINGTHEDATAFROMTHEGRAMEENBANKOFBANGLADESH,THEPAPERFINDSTHATMICROCREDITENABLESTHEBORROWERSTOMOVEPROGRESSIVELYINTOMOREPRODUCTIVEACTIVITIESASTHEYBECOME
3、EXPERIENCEDCOPYRIGHT2009JOHNWILEYPRODUCTIVITYJELCLASSIFICATIONO12,O16INTRODUCTIONTHELITERATUREIDENTIFIESTWOCONTRIBUTIONSOFMICROFIANCEINDEVELOPINGCOUNTRIESTHEFIRSTCONTRIBUTIONINCLUDESTHEINCREASEININCOMEOFTHEPARTICIPANTSALAMGIR,1998KHANDKER,1998PITTANDKHANDKAR,1998BASHER,2001,ANDTHESECONDCONTRIBUTIONI
4、NCLUDESDIFFERENTASPECTSOFWELFARE,EMPOWERMENT,MOTIVATIONALANDATTITUDINALCHANGESAMONGTHEPROGRAMPARTICIPANTSHASHEMIETAL,1996AMINETAL,1998BASHER,2007USUALLY,THERURALPOORAREINVOLVEDINTHELOWRISK,LOWPRODUCTIVEACTIVITIESMICROFINANCECANINCREASETHEINCOMEOFTHEPARTICIPANTSEITHERBYSCALINGUPTHESEACTIVITIESORBYMOV
5、INGTHEPARTICIPANTSINTOHIGHPRODUCTIVEACTIVITIESEXPANSIONOFTHELOWPRODUCTIVEACTIVITIESCANBEIDENTIFIEDASTHE“PROMOTIONAL”DEREZANDSEN,1991ROLEOFMICROFINANCTHISPAPERINVESTIGATESIFTHEPARTICIPATINGHOUSEHOLDSOFTHEMICROFINANCEPROGRAMSWITCHFROMTHEPROTECTIONALTOTHEPROMOTIONALACTIVITIESOVERTIMETHEANALYSISISMOTIVA
6、TEDBYTHEEULEREQUATIONADJUSTEDFORTHEDISTRIBUTIONOFMARGINALINCOMEBETWEENCURRENTANDNEXTPERIODS“CONSUMPTIONTHEIDEAISTHATMOREEXPERIENCEDPARTICIPANTSOFTHEMICROFINANCEPROGRAMACCOMPLISHTHEABILITYTOSWITCHTOHIGHPRODUCTIVEACTIVITIES,WHICHCANBETRACEDBYEXAMININGTHEEVOLUTIONOFPERCENTAGESHAREOFCONSUMPTIONOFTHEPART
7、ICIPANTSINTHEINCURRENTLOANTHECONTRIBUTIONOFTHECURRENTPAPERTOTHELITERATUREISDOUBLEFOLDFIRST,THEPAPERCONTRIBUTESTOTHEEXISTINGLITERATUREOFTHEMICROFINANCEBYSHOWINGTHATITSINCOMEAUGMENTINGROLECOMESNOTONLYFROMTHEEXPANSIONOFTHEEXISTINGLOWPRODUCTIVEACTIVITIESBUTALSOFROMTHESWITCHOFTHEPARTICIPANTSINTOHIGHPRODU
8、CTIVEACTIVITIESSECOND,THEPAPERALSOMAKESAMETHODOLOGICALCONTRIBUTIONTOTHELITERATUREOFMICROFIANCEITSHOWSHOWTHESHAREOFCONSUMPTIONINCURRENTLOANCANBEUSEDTOASSESSTHEGRADUATIONOFTHEPARTICIPANTSFROMTHELOWPRODUCTIVETOHIGHPRODUCTIVEACTIVITIESREQUIRINGNOLONGITUDINALDATAOVERTIME,THEGRAMEENBANKHASBRANCHEDOUTINTON
9、EWERACTIVITIESWHENTHEBANKFIRSTSTARTED,ITCONCERNEDONDISTURBINGGENERALLOANSTOINDIVIDUALBORROWERSITTHENSTARTEDGIVINGCOLLECTIVELOANSTOGROUPSOFBORROWERS,SOMETIMESTOAWHOLECENTERJIONTLYTHERESTOFTHEPAPERISSTRUCTUREDASFOLLOWSSECTION2SETSTHEFRAMEWORKTOEXPLAINHOWTHEPROMOTIONALROLEOFTHEMICROFINANCEPROGRAMCANBET
10、RACEDBYTHEIRSHAREOFCONSUMPTIONINCURRENTLOANSECTION3PROVIDESEMPIRICALANALYSISSECTION4PRESENTSTHEFINDINGSFINALLY,SECTION5CONCLUDESMICROFINANCEANDGRADUATIONFROMPROTECTIONALTOPROMOTIONALACTIVITIESTHISPAPERPERTAINSTOTHEGRAMEENBANKMODEL,WHERETHESIZEOFTHELOANINCREASESWITHTHENUMBEROFLOANSTHISCREATESTHEPOTEN
11、TIALFORTHEPARTICIPANTSTOSWITCHFROMPROTECTIONALTOPROMOTIONALACTIVITIESTHEREARESEVERALREASONSWHYSUCHASWITCHMAYTAKEPLACEWITHTHEINCREASEINNUMBEROFLOANS1CHANGESINTHEATTITUDETORISKTHEGRAMEENBANKHASABUILTINMECHANISMTOINDUCESAVINGSBYTHEPARTICIPANTSPARTICIPANTSAREREQUIREDTOSAVE5PERCENTOFTHEIRLOANASAAGROUPFUN
12、DTHEYCANUSETHESEGROUPFUNDSTOMITIGATEANYKINDSOFFIANCIALCRISISAMOUNTOFGROUPFUNDSINCREASESWITHTHENUMBEROFLOANSBEINGEMBOLDENEDBYTHEAVAILABILITYOFTHESEGROUPFUNDS,THEPARTICIPANTSCANSWITCHFROMPROTECTIONALTOPROMOTIONALACTIVITIESTHEINCREASEDABILITYTOMITIGATEANYFINANCIALLOSSBYTAKINGLOANFROMTHEGROUPFUNDISEVIDE
13、NTFROMTABLE12ACCUMULATIONOFASSETSHOUSEHOLDSCANACCUMULATEDIFFERENTTYPESOFNONFINANCIALASSETSOVERTIMEBYTAKINGLOANFROMMFISMENON,2006THEDATAUSEDINTHISSTUDYALSOFINDSUPPORTFORTHEACCUMULATIONOFLANDOVERTIMEBYTHEPARTICIPANTSOFTHEGRAMEENBANKOFBANGLADESHTABLE2REPORTSTHATTHEAVERAGELANDPURCHASEDBYTHEPARTICIPANTSW
14、HOTOOKLESSTHANFIVELOANSIS12DECIMALSTHESAMEAVERAGEFORTHEPARTICIPANTSWHOTOOKMORETHANFIVELOANSISMORETHAN20DECIMALS3FORMATIONOFSOCIALCAPITALTHECONCEPTOFSOCIALCAPITALREFERSTOFEATURESOFSOCIALORGANISATIONSSUCHASNETWORKS,NORMSANDTRUSTTHATFACILITATEMUTUALCOORDINATIONANDCOOPERATIONPUTNAM,1993NAHAPIETANDGHOSHA
15、L,1998LITERATUREIDENTIFIESTWOTYPESOFSOCIALCAPITALONEATMICROLEVELANDANOTHERATMACROLEVELATTHEMICROLEVEL,SOCIALCAPITALENCAPSULATESFEATURESOFSOCIALORGANISATIONS,SUCHAS,NETWORKSOFINDIVIDUALSORHOUSEHOLDS,ANDTHEASSOCIATEDNORMS,TRUSTANDVALUESATTHEMACROLEVEL,SOCIALCAPITALINCLUDESTHESOCIALANDPOLITICALENVIRONM
16、ENT,POLITICALREGIME,THERULEOFLAW,THELEGALSYSTEM,CIVILANDPOLITICALLIBERTIES,QUALITYOFINSTITUTIONS,ETCGRAMEENBANKASWELLASOTHERMFISCONTRIBUTESPRIMARILYTOTHESOCIALCAPITALATMICROORINDIVIDUALLEVELTHECENTREMEETING,AGATHERINGOF50TO60WOMEN,ALSOWORKSASAWINDOWOFINFORMATIONFORTHEPARTICIPANTSTHEGROUPBASEDACTIVIT
17、IESANDTHEEXCHANGESINTHEWEEKLYMEETINGHELPTOFORMSOCIALCAPITALBYPROMOTINGANETWORKOFECONOMICCOOPERATION,MUTUALTRUSTANDNORMOFRECIPROCITYAMONGTHEPARTICIPANTSRANKIN,2002THEPARTICIPANTSOFMFISAREINVOLVEDMOSTLYINTHEINFORMALORSHADOWECONOMICACTIVITIESTHESEACTIVITIESARESOMETIMESCONSTRAINEDBYTHEABSENCEOFFORMALINS
18、TITUTIONSBUTTHEFORMATIONOFSOCIALCAPITALHELPSTHEPARTICIPANTSTOOVERCOMETHESECONSTRAINTSALLTHESEMEANTHATALONGERASSOCIATIONWITHTHECREDITPROGRAMENABLESTHEPARTICIPANTSTOUNDERTAKEACTIVITIESWITHHIGHERRATEOFRETURNSIFSUCHASWITCHTAKESPLACETHESHAREOFCONSUMPTIONINCURRENTLOANWILLINCREASEWITHNUMBEROFLOANSORLENGTHO
19、FASSOCIATIONWITHTHEMICROFINANCEPROGRAMTHEREFORE,GRADUATIONFROMPROTECTIONALTOPROMOTIONALACTIVITIESCANBEEVALUATEDBYEXAMININGTHERELATIONSHIPBETWEENANDNUMBEROFLOANSEMPIRICALANALYSISDATAUSEDINTHISSTUDYWERECOLLECTEDFROMBANGLADESHDURING2001THESAMPLEWASCHOSENFROMFOURRANDOMLYDRAWNBRANCHESOFTHEGRAMEENBANKTHEP
20、RIMARYINFORMATION,PERTAININGMAINLYTOSOCIOECONOMICPROFILEOFTHEMEMBERHOUSEHOLDS,WASCOLLECTEDFROMTHEPARTICIPANTSTHROUGHSTRUCTUREDQUESTIONNAIREFIVEVILLAGESUNDEREACHBRANCHWERERANDOMLYSELECTEDTWENTYFIVEPARTICIPANTSFROMEACHVILLAGEWERESURVEYEDFIRSTWEESTIMATEEQUATION8BYUSINGTHESIZEOFTHECURRENTLOANDISBURSEDDU
21、RINGYEAR2000AND2001ASTHEDEPENDENTVARIABLE,ANDLOGOFCURRENTINCOME,AMOUNTOFLAND,TOTALHOUSEHOLDMEMBERS,TOTALINCOMEEARNINGHOUSEHOLDMEMBERSANDTHELENGTHOFASSOCIATIONWITHGRAMEENBANKSCREDITPROGRAMASEXPLANATORYVARIABLESINESTIMATIONOFEQUATION7,WEUSETHEPERCENTAGESHAREOFCONSUMPTIONINTHECURRENTLOANASTHEDEPENDENTV
22、ARIABLE,LOGOFCURRENTINCOME,AMOUNTOFHOUSEHOLDLANDHOLDING,HOUSEHOLDMEMBER,HOUSEHOLDMEMBERINTHEAGEGROUPOF1565ANDTHERESIDUALSOFEQUATION8ATHEEXPLANATORYVARIABLESTHERESULTSAREASREPORTEDINTABLE3THEPERCENTAGESHAREOFCONSUMPTIONINTOTALLOANISNEGATIVELYRELATEDWITHTHELEVELOFCURRENTINCOMETHEAMOUNTOFLANDHOLDINGSOR
23、THELEVELOFEDUCATIONISSOSMALLTHATTHEYDONOTSIGNIFICANTLYAFFECTTHESHAREOFCONSUMPTIONINTOTALLOANNISTHECOEFFICIENTOFOURINTERESTTHEESTIMATEDNISASFOLLOWS（N）10740026（N）ITMEANSTHESHAREOFCONSUMPTIONINTOTALLOANINCREASESWITHTHENUMBEROFLOANSFORAGIVENLEVELOFINCOMEGIVENTHENUMBEROFLOANS,INCOMEHASANEGATIVEEFFECTONTH
24、EPERCENTAGESHAREOFCONSUMPTIONINTHELOANTAKENFROMGRAMEENBANKITISEASILYCOMPREHENSIBLEASTHEHIGHERTHELEVELOFINCOME,THELESSERTHENEEDTOCONSUMEFROMCURRENTLOANBUTASTHENUMBEROFLOANSINCREASES,THEPARTICIPANTSSWITCHINTOHIGHPRODUCTIVEACTIVITIESANDTHEPOTENTIALFUTURECONSUMPTIONALSOINCREASESTHEREFORE,THECONSUMPTIONS
25、MOOTHENINGOFTHEHOUSEHOLDSINVOLVESHIGHERPERCENTAGESHAREOFCONSUMPTIONINCURRENTLOANASARESULT,THEEXTENTOFNEGATIVEIMPACTOFCURRENTINCOMEONCONSUMPTIONFROMCURRENTLOANDECREASESTHISISANEMPIRICALEVIDENCETHATTHEREEXISTSAPOSITIVEMONOTONICRELATIONSHIPBETWEENTHENUMBEROFLOANSANDTHERATEOFRETURNONINVESTMENTOFMICROFIN
26、ANCETHISMEANSTHATTHEREISAMOVEMENTINTOMOREPRODUCTIVEACTIVITYFORALLBORROWERSBEINGTHATTHEOLDONESMOVEINTOEVENMOREPRODUCTIVEACTIVITIESASCOMPAREDTOTHENEWONESEVERYLOANCONTRACTINVOLVESTHEGIVINGUPOFASUMOFMONEYBYALENDERINONEPERIODINEXCHANGEFORAPROMISEBYTHEBORROWERTOREPAYTHEMONEYPLUSANINTERESTAMOUNTINAFUTUREPE
27、RIODBECAUSETHEEXCHANGETAKESPLACEOVERTIME,THELENDERMUSTDECIDEWHETHERTOMAKEALOANTOACERTAINBORROWERANDTHEN,IFTHELOANISMADE,HEMUSTFINDWAYSTOENSURETHATTHEBORROWERINFACTREPAYSTHEMONEYCONCLUSIONALTHOUGHTHEREISASTRONGEVIDENCEINTHELITERATURETHATMICROFINANCEHELPSTOINCREASEHOUSEHOLDINCOME,ITISNOTADEQUATELYANAL
28、YSEDWHETHERTHISINCREASECOMESFROMTHEEXPANSIONOFTHEEXISTINGLOWPRODUCTIVEACTIVITIESORFROMTHESWITCHTOHIGHPRODUCTIVEACTIVITIESALSOTHEEXPLORATIONOFTHISPAPERSUGGESTSTHATMICROCREDITENABLESBORROWERSTOMOVEPROGRESSIVELYINTOMOREPRODUCTIVEACTIVITIESASTHEYBECOMEMOREEXPERIENCEDOFCOURSE,THISPAPERDOESNOTADDRESSTHEDE
29、TERMINANTSOFSUCHASWITCHFROMTHELOWPRODUCTIVETOHIGHPRODUCTIVEACTIVITIESFURTHERINVESTIGATIONISREQUIREDTOASSESSITSDETERMINANTSTHEINCREASEINTHEPERCENTAGESHAREOFCONSUMPTIONINCURRENTLOANSBYTHEOLDPARTICIPANTS,WHENTHEIRECONOMICSITUATIONAPPARENTLYIMPROVES,CONTRADICTSTHECONVENTIONALWISDOMTHATSUGGESTTHATTHEPOOR
30、STRUGGLINGATTHEEDGEOFSUBSISTENCEWOULDCONSUMEMOREFROMTHEIRLOANSATTHEINITIALYEARSOFTHEASSOCIATIONTHISMAYBETRUEFORTHEPOORESTOFTHEPOORBUTTHEPARTICIPANTSWHODOTHATARESURELYDOOMEDTOFAILTOMAINTAINTHEREQUIREDREPAYMENTRATEANDASARESULTTHEYHAVETODROPOUTINAYEARORTWOTHERESULTSOFTHISPAPERARERELEVANTFORTHECONTINUIN
31、GMEMBERSONLY,THEREFORE,DONOTHOLDFORTHEPOORESTOFTHEPOORWHODROPOUTFROMTHEPROGRAMAPARTFROMRESOLVINGTHEQUESTIONWHYTHEOLDPARTICIPANTSCONSUMEALARGESHAREOFTHEIRLOANSASCOMPAREDTOTHENEWPARTICIPANTSOFTHEGRAMEENBANK,THISPAPERALSOMAKESAMETHODOLOGICALCONTRIBUTIONTOTHELITERATUREOFMICROFINANCETHEPAPERSHOWSHOWTHESH
32、AREOFCONSUMPTIONINCURRENTLOANCANBEUSEDTOASSESSTHEGRADUATIONOFTHEPARTICIPANTSFROMTHELOWPRODUCTIVETOHIGHPRODUCTIVEACTIVITIESREQUIRINGNOLONGITUDINALDATA外文题目PROMOTIONALROLEOFMICROCREDITEVIDENCEFROMTHEGRAMEENBANKOFBANGLADESH出处JOURNALOFINTERNATIONALDEVELOPMENT作者MDABULBASHER译文微型贷款的促进作用，证据来自格莱珉乡村银行摘要本文调查就微观
33、贷款中收录的增加归因于是否仅因借款人更多的参与在经济活动，还是改用更多产的活动进行了调查。调查提供了框架分析在缺乏任何纵向数据下的这个问题。对于格莱珉乡村银行的数据的分析表明,孟加拉国微观贷款使借款人再循序渐进成为更具生产力的活动,使他们更具经验。关键词小额贷款生产力引言文献指出了两种贡献的微观金融在发展中国家。第一个做贡献的方法包括增加收入的杂志,2002ALAMGIR参加者1998,KHANDKERPITTAND杂志,2002KHANDKARBASHER,2001,第二等不同方面贡献福利,授权、动机、态度的改变程序中,2003HASHEMIETAL参加者1998,AMINETALBASHE
34、R,2007。通常,农村贫困人口的参与低风险的、低生产性活动微观金融可以增加收入的参与者可以提高这些活动或通过移动的参与者带入最高生产活动。扩展的低生产性活动可以看成是“宣传”DEREZAND森MICROFINANC,1991的作用。本文认为参与家庭的微观贷款计划是来自一段时间的促销活动的保护,分析探讨受欧拉方程激发调整了在当前和今后一个时期“消费之间的边际收入。这个主意就是更有经验的参与者更有能力达成对微型贷款项目目标，即转换成高生产活动的能力,它可以通过追踪目前参与者的的消费贷款的百分比来进行。首先,本文对现有文献中的小额贷款的贡献,显示其收入推动作用的扩张是现存的效率较低的生产活动转化成
35、的参与者成效高工作。第二,本文同样进行了方法论中关于微观金融的文献的贡献。这也显示出目前消费与贷款比例被用来评估参与者从低生产到高生产性活动转化不需要纵向数据。二、微观金融来自激励活动的保护本文关乎后来的格莱珉银行模型,在那里有许多贷款的贷款规模增加,。这创造了潜在的参与者的从保护到促销活动的转变的可能性。有很多原因造成这种转换代替一定数量的贷款增加。1风险态度的改变格莱珉银行已经建立了种机制来诱导参与者的储蓄。参加者被要求存储5的贷款作为“群体基金”。他们可以利用这些群体资金来减轻各种各样的财务危机大量的团体基金增加了贷款的数量。通过这些团体基金可以为这些组参与者从保护切换到促销活动。通过贷
36、获取款团体基金增强了减轻金融损失的能力可以从表一看出。2资产的积累家庭可以在一段时间内从MFIS中获取贷款累积不同类型的非金融资产。数据应用于该研究也发现表明孟加拉乡村银行参与者通过一段时间积累了土地。3社会资本的形成社会资本概念是指社会组织的特征,例如网络、规范、信任以促进相互协调对等的合作普特南、1993NAHAPIET和GHOSHAL,1998文献指出了两种类型的社会资本一种是在微观的水平和另一种宏观水平。研究微观特征、社会资本封装社团,例如,网络的个人或家庭,和相关规范、信任和价值。从宏观水平、社会资本包括的社会政治环境、政治制度、法治、法制、公民权利和政治自由,优质的机构等。格莱珉银
37、行以及其他MFIS主要贡献社会资本在微观的或个人层面。中心会议,集中了50到60位妇女,同时兼任提供参加者资料的窗口。团体活动和交流每周例会，有利于形成通过促进网络经济合作而相互信任和规范互惠参加者的社会资本RANKIN,2002年。MFIS涉及的对象主要是在非正式或是影子经济活动。这些活动是有时受到缺乏正式体系的制约。但社会资本的形成有助于参与者摆脱这些限制。所有这些意味着一个越长期的协会拥有信用计划有利于活动参与者获取较高的回报率。如果这类转变代替消费在贷款中的比例增加会使小额贷款计划的数量增加。因此，促销活动的评估可以通过检查在和贷款数量之间的关系。三、实证分析应用于该研究的数据收集于2
38、001年期间的孟加拉国。样品从四个随机抽样选择分行格莱珉乡村银行。主要的信息,涉及到社会经济剖面的成员家庭,收集来自贯穿培训的结构式问卷。5个村庄各部门下随机选择。25位来自每个村进行访谈调查。原因首先我们估计方程式8利用现有贷款的规模20002001年间作为因变量,目前的收益,土地,总家庭成员数,家庭成员的总收入和格莱珉银行项目的信用贷款期限作为解释变量。方程的方法7,我们用百分比在当前消费占贷款的比例作为因变量,目前的收入、房子土地的数量，家庭成员的数量,家庭成员的在年龄群1565之间的结构和残差方程的8一个解释变量研究结果发表在TABLE3。消费在总贷款中所占的比例与现有的收入水平呈显著
39、负相关关系,所以他们不明显影响总贷款和消费的比例N是我们感兴趣的系数估计N如下（N）10740026（N）这意味着这个消费在贷款总额中比例增加对于一个给定的收入水平贷款增加的情况下。给于一定量的贷款，收入对消费占总贷款的比例起着负相关的作用在格莱珉贷款中。它很容易作为理解的水平就越高收入、需要消耗类型从现有的贷款但是随着数量增加的贷款,参与者转到最高生产活动和未来的消费也有所增加。因此,消费粉嫩肌肤的家庭消费的比例高的百分比涉及目前贷款。因此,造成的消极影响的程度现有的收入,从目前的消费贷款的减小而增大。这是一个实证研究,有着积极的单调的数量关系贷款和投资的回报率小额贷款。这就意味着这里是一种
40、运动成为更具生产力的活动都是旧的借款人进入更有生产力活动相比,新的。四、结论虽然在文献中有确凿的证据表明，小额信贷帮助增加家庭收入,但并未充分的分析这种增加的扩张是来自于显存低生产活动或是从切换到最高生产活动。本文的探究表明,小额贷款促使借款人在具备一定的经验后循序渐进从事生产力的活动。当然,本文并未解释这类从低到高的生产活动的原因。评估其影响因素等方面的研究需要本文进行进一步研究探讨。当老参与者他们的经济状况明显提高时,消费贷款比例也会相应的增加。与传统智慧相违背，表明在贫困的边缘挣扎生存会消耗更多的从协会获得的他们的最初几年的贷款，这也许对为穷人中最穷的人来说是正确的。但对于参加者无疑是注定要无法保持所需的偿还比例,因此他们必需在一两年内放弃。本文有关的结论仅仅是有关持续成员,因此,不作为解释穷人中最穷的人放弃该项目。除了解决格莱珉银行老参与者与新的参与者相比消费在贷款中的比例持续扩大的问题,本文也同样构建了小额贷款的贡献模型。本文也介绍了目前如何利用消费在贷款比例的来评估参与者从低到高生产性活动的转变不需要纵向数据。
