1、1本科毕业论文外文翻译外文文献译文生命周期假设，储蓄倾向和金融资产的需求资料来源经济和金融周刊作者JANTIN摘要在最近的数十年来，美国不仅在金融市场经历个巨大的经济变化，而且在经历了巨大的社会和人口转变。基于消费和储蓄行为的生命周期理论，凯恩斯的概念边际倾向于储蓄，和弗里德曼的资本需求理论。这些理论的学习表面社会人口状况的变化极大的影响了金融市场个人的储蓄行为。调查表面储蓄在金融机构的用于交易、预防和投机行为在不同个体之间是具有不用的社会经济特征的。回归结果也表面不同的人口背景的个体在储蓄和持有的金融资产的流动性和风险程度具有很大的差别。回归结果所有的回归结果都包含普通的最小二次方估计方法，
2、这是正确的理论框架下的资产方法。在凯恩斯的理论中，总的货币需求、利率和实际收益是同时决定的。利用最小二乘法将导致参数估计。然而在弗里德曼的资本方法中，个人水平上的金融资产的均衡需求已经下降。在利用最小二乘法时，如果误差项是一个资本需求回归线而不是和其他资本需求方程式的误差项同时有对应关系将不会产生偏导数估计参数上升。如果资产需求方程式的误差项是同时相关的，这看起来无关回归方法将能用来获取有效估计的参数。同时应该提到的是，在其他调查中，无反应项也是SIPP中一个重要的问题。为了使无关项对金融资产、财富和其他变量的影响最小，加权观察值被应用到所有的回归中。在SIPP中权重方法部分抵消了无关项对调查
3、估计的影响。表一包含了无利率支票存款的需求、NOW和SUPERNOW账户、定期和银行存在储蓄账户、存款证、货币市场存款账户和证券及共同基金股份的实证研究结果。快速的瞄一眼第二列和第三列包含的财富和使用成本弹性表明所有多是显著的和具有正确的标志的。从每个回归的所有相关大小的解释变量来判断，对每个金融资产的储蓄量而言，财富是最为重要的决定因素。仔细一看会发现，存款证、货币市场存款和证券及共同基金股份的财富弹性要比其他种类的金融资产要强的多。其他的研究结果表面男人比女人更喜欢把钱储蓄在存款证、NOW和SUPERNOW账户和股票及共同基金股份上。不同种族的人之间主要区别表现在对无利率存款的需求、NOW
4、和SUPERNOW账户和定期存款及银行储蓄存款的需求上。正如赛克的观点，个体所生活环境的不同也会间接影响他们对无利率存款、NOW和SUPERNOW账户和定期存款及银行存折储蓄的需求。R平方的所有值是合理的代2表性分析。这些样本量表面那些拥有存款证，货币市场存款或证券和共同基金股份的数量远远超过拥有其它金融资产的数量。一般的，这样的结果与过去的其他人的研究结果是一样的。人们储蓄在每个金融资产的数量大小弹性程度，在很大程度上受到贴现率和相应的回报率的影响。这个同时也与CEQ模型及欧拉方程的预测相同。下一列的结果表明不同年龄段的人在所有的回归因素中都存在显著的0到5个百分点的差别。另外一个影响个人消
5、费和储蓄行为的决定性因素是是否拥有小孩。婚姻状况在个人的消费和储蓄的生命周期中扮演了重要的角色。财富弹性，储蓄倾向，和资产需求上述提及的分析中的一个困难是财富的弹性和潜在的储蓄倾向是假设在不同个体的情况下。这个实证研究是否有效是值得检验的如果能获得更多的有关于个人储蓄行为和总资本需求的微观基础的观点。从计量学来说，这个可以通过增加每个人口虚拟变量的财富来简单完成，然后把结果作为附加的解释变量来加入模型。所有解释变量的每次资本需求回归都会使产品系数收益。从这些系数，每个组的人的财富弹性和储蓄倾向都会比估计。在讨论结果之前，应该线提到年龄被定义为基本变量，教育被定义为虚拟变量。为了简单起见，1代表
6、那些年龄在35及35岁以上的人，0代表那些年龄在35岁以下的人。教育方面，1和0分别代表那些有受过大学教育的和没有受过大学教育的人。像表2所示，个人在35岁以下与35岁以上的人相比，有不同的财富弹性，储蓄倾向，和资产需求。相同的，有孩子和没有孩子的个人在资产理财方面也有不同的财富弹性和储蓄倾向。对于那些受过不同教育水平的人来说，他们财富弹性和储蓄倾向的不同表现在他们存款证和股票或共同基金股份的回归存在5和10显著性水平的差异。在四个六回归中，已婚人士和其它婚姻状况的人拥有不同的财富弹性和储蓄倾向。以性别来说男士和女士仅仅在在股票和共同基金的股份上的财富弹性和储蓄弹性存在不同。不同人种金融不同之
7、处在于储蓄倾向和持有的没有利息的活期存款，NOW和SUPERNOW账户，定期存款和银行存折储蓄存款的不同。最后，成熟居民的产品系数不是很重要在所有回归中只占5的水平。总结像储蓄生命周期理论所提及的，通过本研究结果表面很多金融资本的需求不仅与财富和贴现利率的回报有关，而且与人口统计变量有关。很多回归结果都支持凯恩斯的假设即不同经济状况的个体的储蓄偏好存在巨大的不同。这意味着经济政策的设置影响着不同收入、不同利率、不同年龄、不同教育水平、不同种族和不同婚姻状况的人群，可能会发散的影响拥有打了金融资本的不同群体。此外，用总体资产的需求的参数估计来指导设置货币政策可能导致错误，因为个体的边际储蓄倾向不
8、是恒定不变的。3外文文献原文LIFECYCLEHYPOTHESIS,PROPENSITIESTOSAVE,ANDDEMANDFORFINANCIALASSETSMATERIALSOURCEJOURNALOFECONOMICSANDFINANCEAUTHORJANTINABSTRACTINRECENTDECADES,THEUNITEDSTATESHASNOTONLYEXPERIENCEDGREATECONOMICCHANGESINTHEFINANCIALMARKETSBUTALSOUNDERGONETREMENDOUSSOCIALANDDEMOGRAPHICTRANSFORMATIONSBASE
9、DONTHELIFECYCLETHEORYOFCONSUMPTIONANDSAVING,KEYNESSCONCEPTOFMARGINALPROPENSITYTOSAVE,ANDFRIEDMANSTHEORYOFASSETDEMAND,THISSTUDYSHOWSTHATCHANGESINSOCIODEMOGRAPHICCONDITIONSHAVESIGNIFICANTIMPACTSONTHESAVINGBEHAVIOROFINDIVIDUALSINTHEFINANCIALMARKETFINDINGSINDICATETHATTHEAMOUNTSOFSAVINGSHELDINFINANCIALIN
10、STITUTIONSFORTRANSACTIONS,PRECAUTIONARY,ANDSPECULATIVEMOTIVESDIFFERSUBSTANTIALLYAMONGINDIVIDUALSWITHDIVERGENTSOCIOECONOMICCHARACTERISTICSREGRESSIONRESULTSALSOSHOWTHATINDIVIDUALSWITHDIFFERENTDEMOGRAPHICBACKGROUNDSDIFFERGREATLYINTHEIRPROPENSITIESTOSAVEANDHOLDFINANCIALASSETSWITHDIFFERENTDEGREESOFLIQUID
11、ITYANDRISKJELE41,E44INTRODUCTIONINTHEGENERALTHEORYKEYNESSTATEDTHATTHEMARGINALPROPENSITYTOSAVEANDHOLDFINANCIALASSETSISINFLUENCEDBYASETOFSUBJECTIVEANDOBJECTIVEFACTORS,ANDTHESTRENGTHSOFTHESEFACTORSDIFFERENORMOUSLYAMONGINDIVIDUALSWITHDIVERGENTSOCIOECONOMICCONDITIONSSIMILARLY,THELIFECYCLETHEORYPREDICTSTH
12、ATTHECONSUMPTIONANDSAVINGBEHAVIOROFANINDIVIDUALCHANGESGREATLYWITHINCOME,WEALTH,AGE,MARITALSTATUS,ANDOTHERSOCIOECONOMICCONDITIONSDURINGVARIOUSSTAGESOFTHEINDIVIDUALSLIFESINCETHEEQUILIBRIUMDEMANDFORAFINANCIALASSETISAFUNCTIONOFINCOMEORWEALTH,WHICHINTURNISRELATEDTOTHEDEMOGRAPHICCONDITIONSOFANINDIVIDUAL,C
13、HANGESINTHEDEMOGRAPHICVARIABLESWOULDNOTONLYAFFECTTHELEVELOFINCOMEANDWEALTHBUTALSOAFFECTTHEDEMANDFORFINANCIALASSETSINTHELITERATURE,HOWEVER,MOSTSTUDIESBASEDONTHELIFECYCLETHEORYAREMAINLYCONCERNEDWITHTHEBEHAVIOROFCONSUMPTION,WHILEMOSTWORKONSAVINGITSELFISDESCRIPTIVEANDRELATIVELYATHEORETICALBROWNINGANDLUS
14、ARDI1996THISSTUDYATTEMPTSTOMOVEONESTEPINTHEDIRECTIONOFNARROWINGTHISGAPBYINTEGRATINGTHELIFECYCLEBEHAVIOROFSAVINGWITHFRIDMANS1956THEORYOFASSETDEMANDNEVERTHELESS,THEEMPIRICALMERITOFSUCHAMICROECONOMICANALYSISISCRITICALLYDEPENDENTONTHEAVAILABILITYOFMICROECONOMICINFORMATIONONASSETDEMAND,INCOME,4WEALTH,OPP
15、ORTUNITYCOST,AGE,MARITALSTATUS,ANDOTHERSOCIODEMOGRAPHICVARIABLESINTHELITERATURE,FOREXAMPLE,THELACKOFDATAONAGGREGATEASSETDEMANDGIVESRISETOTHEWELLKNOWNIDENTIFICATIONPROBLEMCOOLEYANDLEROY1981,WHILETHELACKOFINCOMEANDWEALTHDATALEADSTOTHEEMPLOYMENTOFREALGNPASAPROXYEG,GOLDFELD1973INADDITION,THELACKOFSOCIOE
16、CONOMICINFORMATIONONHETEROGENEOUSINDIVIDUALSHASRESULTEDINTHEASSUMPTIONOFAREPRESENTATIVECONSUMERINMANYAGGREGATESTUDIESTHISSTUDYUSESTHESURVEYOFINCOMEANDPROGRAMPARTICIPATIONSIPPCONDUCTEDBYTHEUSBUREAUOFTHECENSUSTOEXAMINETHEDEMANDFORFINANCIALASSETSBYINDIVIDUALSWITHDIFFERENTSOCIOECONOMICBACKGROUNDSSIPPCON
17、TAINSNOTONLYSOCIODEMOGRAPHICINFORMATIONONINDIVIDUALSBUTALSOASETOFCOMPREHENSIVECROSSSECTIONALDEMANDDATAONFINANCIALASSETSWITHDIFFERENTDEGREESOFRISKANDLIQUIDITYSUCHASREGULARORPASSBOOKSAVINGS,MONEYMARKETDEPOSITS,CERTIFICATESOFDEPOSIT,NOWORSUPERNOWACCOUNTS,STOCKSANDMUTUALFUNDSHARES,ANDNONINTERESTEARNINGC
18、HECKINGACCOUNTSASPREDICTEDBYKEYNESANDTHELIFECYCLEHYPOTHESIS,REGRESSIONRESULTSINDICATETHATTHEMARGINALPROPENSITIESTOSAVEANDHOLDFINANCIALASSETSDIFFERSUBSTANTIALLYAMONGINDIVIDUALSWITHDIFFERENTCHARACTERISTICSFINDINGSALSOCASTCONSIDERABLEDOUBTSONTHEEXISTENCEOFAGORMANTYPEOFREPRESENTATIVECONSUMERFREQUENTLYAS
19、SUMEDINAGGREGATEASSETDEMANDSTUDIESTHISPAPERISORGANIZEDINTHEFOLLOWINGMANNERSECTIONDISCUSSESTHETHEORETICALUNDERPINNINGSOFASSETDEMAND,KEYNESSCONCEPTOFMARGINALPROPENSITYTOSAVE,ANDTHELIFECYCLETHEORYSECTIONEXPLAINSTHEDATASOURCE,DEPENDENTANDINDEPENDENTVARIABLES,ANDTHEREGRESSIONRESULTSCONCLUDINGREMARKSARECO
20、NTAINEDINTHEFINALSECTIONTHEORETICALFRAMEWORKINTHELITERATURE,THEASSETAPPROACHOFFRIEDMAN1956ANDTHEINVENTORYTHEORETICTRANSACTIONSAPPROACHOFBAUMOL1952ANDTOBIN1956PROVIDETHEMICROFOUNDATIONSOFMOSTEMPIRICALSTUDIESONAGGREGATEDEMANDFORFINANCIALASSETSINBOTHTHEORIES,THEDEMANDFORAFINANCIALASSETBYANINDIVIDUALISA
21、NEGATIVEFUNCTIONOFTHEOPPORTUNITYCOSTANDAPOSITIVEFUNCTIONOFTHESCALEVARIABLETHATIS,0,0,TTITITITTITIMWMWFMWHERETIM,ISEQUILIBRIUMDEMANDFORFINANCIALASSETBYTHEITHINDIVIDUALDURINGPERIODT,TIW,REPRESENTSASCALEVARIABLE,AND,ISTHEPRICEOROPPORTUNITYCOSTOFHOLDINGTHEFINANCIALASSETINTHEASSETAPPROACH,THEAPPROPRIATES
22、CALEVARIABLEISREAL5WEALTH,WHILETHEOPPORTUNITYCOSTOFHOLDINGMONEYISTHEUSERCOSTEG,BARNETT1980INTHETRANSACTIONSAPPROACH,HOWEVER,THEOPPORTUNITYCOSTOFHOLDINGMONEYISTHERATEOFINTEREST,WHILETHESCALEVARIABLEISREALINCOMEEG,GOLDFELD1973FROMATHEORETICALPERSPECTIVE,THEBAUMOLTOBINMODELISESSENTIALLYABOUTDEMANDFORHI
23、GHLYLIQUIDASSETSSUCHASCASHANDDEMANDDEPOSITSTHATAREREQUIREDFORTRANSACTIONSPURPOSES,WHILETHEFRAMEWORKOFTHEASSETAPPROACHISAPPLICABLETOALLFINANCIALASSETSWITHDIFFERENTDEGREESOFRISKANDLIQUIDITYSUCHASMONEY,EQUITIES,ANDBONDSASLONGASTHEYAREINTHEUTILITYFUNCTIONANDWEALTHCONSTRAINTOFANINDIVIDUALTHISDIFFERENCEBE
24、TWEENTHETRANSACTIONSAPPROACHANDTHEASSETAPPROACHHASBECOMETHETHEORETICALFOUNDATIONOFMOSTASSETDEMANDSTUDIESEMPIRICALLY,MOSTSTUDIESBASEDONTHETRANSACTIONSAPPROACHUSUALLYDEFINEAGGREGATEASSETDEMANDASM1,WHEREASSTUDIESBASEDONTHEASSETAPPROACHPREFERHIGHERLEVELSOFMONETARYAGGREGATESSUCHASM2ANDM3THISMEANSTHATTHEE
25、CONOMETRICMODELTOBEEMPLOYEDINASTUDYISNOTONLYRELATEDTOTHESCALEANDOPPORTUNITYCOSTVARIABLESBUTALSORELATEDTOTHETYPEOFFINANCIALASSETSTOBEEXAMINEDINTHISSTUDY,THEECONOMETRICMODELUSEDTOEXAMINETHEMARGINALPROPENSITIESTOSAVEANDHOLDFINANCIALASSETSBYANINDIVIDUALISGIVENINTHEFOLLOWINGLOGLINEARFORMEG,BARNETT,OFFENB
26、ACHER,ANDSPINDT1984TTTINIJTTTSWM,1210LOGLOGLOGLOGWHERETMISTHEQUANTITYOFMONETARYORFINANCIALASSETDEMANDEDDURINGPERIODT,TWISTHEQUANTITYOFINCOMEORWEALTH,ANDTI,ARETHEOWNANDCROSSUSERCOSTOROPPORTUNITYCOSTOFHOLDINGTHEFINANCIALASSETANDAREDEFINEDASTTTTRIRRANDTTJTTJRIRR,RESPECTIVELYINEQUATION3,R,ISTHEEXPECTEDR
27、ATEOFRETURNONABENCHMARKASSET,R,ISTHEEXPECTEDRATEOFRETURNONTHEFINANCIALASSET,ANDTIR,ISTHEEXPECTEDRATEOFRETURNONTHEJTHASSETSINCEDIFFERENTFINANCIALASSETSHAVEDIFFERENTEXPECTEDRATESOFRETURNANDDEGREESOFRISK,THERELATIONSHIPBETWEENTHESEVARIABLEHASTOBEREFLECTEDINTHEMODELINTHISSTUDY,THEEFFECTSOFRISKONTHEEXPEC
28、TEDRATESOFRETURNANDASSETDEMANDFORINDIVIDUALSWITHRISKYASSETS,ESPECIALLYSTOCKSORMUTUALFUNDSHARES,INTHEIRPORTFOLIOS6WILLBEEXAMINEDWITHTHEMEANVARIANCEMODEORTHECONVENTIONALLINEARCAPITALASSETPRICINGMODELCAPMOFTOBIN1958,MARKOWITZ1959,SHARPE1964,LINTNER1965,BLACK1972,ANDOTHERSINEQUATION2,DEMOGRAPHICVARIABLE
29、SAREREPRESENTEDBYTSINPASTSTUDIESONCONSUMPTIONANDSAVING,THELIFECYCLEMOTIVEISCAPTUREDBYTHECHANGESINCIRCUMSTANCESIMPLICITINTHESVARIABLESSEEBROWNINGANDLUSARDI1996THEORETICALLY,THERESTRICTIONS,0,021AND0JAREASSUMEDTOHOLDTHESIGNSOFSDIFFERAMONGVARIOUSDEMOGRAPHICVARIABLESTHEERRORTERM,T,ISASSUMEDTOBENORMALLYD
30、ISTRIBUTEDWITHZEROMEANANDCONSTANTVARIANCETHEMARGINALPROPENSITYTOHOLDAFINANCIALASSETISCAPTUREDBYTHEELASTICITYOFWEALTHORTTTTWMMW1WHICHCANBEREWRITTENAS1TTWMWHERETTWMTHEMARGINALPROPENSITYTOHOLDEACHFINANCIALASSETISTHEPRODUCTOFTHEASSETTOWEALTHRATIOANDTHEELASTICITYOFTHESCALEVARIABLEGIVENTHEASSETTOWEALTHRAT
31、ION,DIFFERENCESINTHEMARGINALPROPENSITIESAREREFLECTEDINDIFFERENCESINTHEELASTICITIESOFWEALTHINTHELITERATUREONMONEYDEMAND,THENUMBEROFEMPIRICALSTUDIESCONDUCTEDATTHEMICROECONOMICLEVELISQUITESMALLRELATIVETOTHEOVERWHELMINGNUMBEROFSTUDIESCONDUCTEDATTHEAGGREGATELEVELTHEREAREMORETHAN500STUDIESOFMONEYDEMANDTHA
32、TUSETIMESERIESORPOOLEDDATA,WHILEFEWERTHAN25STUDIESUSECROSSSECTIONDATAANDAREMOSTLYCONDUCTEDINTHE1950SAND1960SATTHEMICROECONOMICLEVEL,THECROSSSECTIONALSTUDIESBYLYDALL1958,WATTSANDTOBIN1960,KREININ1961,PESEK1963,LEE1964,NIEUWENBURG1969,PETERSON1974,ANDAFEWOTHERSAREMAINLYCONCERNEDWITHFACTORSDETERMININGT
33、HEDEMANDFORCASH,NONINTERESTEARNINGDEMANDDEPOSIT,ANDVARIOUSSAVINGSHELDINFINANCIALINSTITUTIONSASARESULT,ORCERTIFICATESOFDEPOSITARENOTINCLUDEDINTHEANALYSISANUPDATEDANALYSISINAPPARENTLYWARRANTEDINADDITION,THESESTUDIESHAVEEXTENSIVELYLOOKEDATTHERELATIVEIMPORTANCEOFWEALTH,CURRENTINCOME,PERMANENTINCOME,ANDN
34、ETWORTHINDETERMININGMONEYDEMAND,WHILELITTLEORNOATTEMPTHASBEENMADEEXPLICITLYTOLINKMONEYDEMANDTOTHELIFECYCLETHEORYOFMICROECONOMICSAVING7THISLACKOFATTENTIONTOTHEMICROECONOMICBEHAVIOROFASSETDEMANDCANBEPARTIALLYATTRIBUTEDTOSOMEIMPORTANTDEVELOPMENTSINMONETARYECONOMICSSINCETHEEARLY1970SINTHECLASSICSTUDYBYG
35、OLDFELD1973,THEDEMANDFORTHENARROWLYDEFINEDM1MONETARYAGGREGATEISFOUNDTOBEASTABLEFUNCTIONOFREALGNP,INTERESTRATEONPASSBOOKSAVINGS,ANDTHESHORTTERMRATEONCOMMERCIALPAPERSORTREASURYBILLSGIVENTHEFACTTHATTHEMONETARYAUTHORITYCANCHANGEAGGREGATEMONEYSUPPLYTOINFLUENCEAGGREGATEECONOMICACTIVITIES,THISIMPLIESTHAT,A
36、LLOTHERTHINGSBEINGEQUAL,MONETARYPOLICIESWOULDHAVEPREDICTABLEEFFECTSONINTERESTRATES,INCOME,EMPLOYMENT,ANDPRICESTHISDEVELOPMENTHASNOTONLYDISTRACTEDTHEATTENTIONOFRESEARCHERFROMEXAMININGTHEMICROFOUNDATIONSOFAGGREGATEASSETDEMANDBUTALSOENHANCEDTHEVIEWTHAT,ASFARASMONETARYPOLICIESARECONCERNED,THEREISLITTLET
37、OBEGAINEDFROMMICROECONOMICSTUDIESONASSETDEMANDTHESUBSEQUENTCOLLAPSEOFTHESTANDARDMODELOFAGGREGATEMONEYDEMANDHASFURTHERDIVERTEDTHEATTENTIONOFMOSTRESEARCHERSFROMMICROECONOMICMONEYDEMANDASARESULT,ATREMENDOUSAMOUNTOFRESOURCESHASBEENSPENTINTHELITERATURETOSEARCHFORASTABLEAGGREGATEMONEYDEMANDFUNCTIONSEEJUDD
38、ANDSCADDING1982INRECENTYEARS,BARNETT1997,CUTHBERTSON1997,MIZEN1997,LAIDLER1997,ANDOTHERSHAVECOMETOTHECONCLUSIONTHATTHEMICROFOUNDATIONSOFAGGREGATEMONEYDEMANDOUGHTTOBEEXAMINEDMORECLOSELYWITHCROSSSECTIONALSURVEYDATATHATARENOTCONTAMINATEDWITHTHEPROBLEMSOFAGGREGATEMONEYDEMANDITISWELLKNOWNINTHELITERATURET
39、HATONEOFTHEMAJORDIFFICULTIESWITHAGGREGATEMONEYDEMANDISRELATEDTOTHEASSUMPTIONOFAREPRESENTATIVECONSUMEREMPLOYEDINMOSTSTUDIESASSHOWNBYGORMAN1953,THEDIFFICULTYWITHTHISASSUMPTIONISTHATITISQUITERESTRICTIVEANDREQUIRESTHEMARGINALPROPENSITYTOSAVETOBECONSTANTACROSSALLINDIVIDUALS,REGARDLESSOFTHEDIFFERENCESINTH
40、EIRSOCIOECONOMICCHARACTERISTICSATTHEMICROECONOMICLEVEL,HOWEVER,WHETHERTHEMARGINALPROPENSITYTOSAVEISDETERMINEDBYASETOFOBJECTIVEANDSUBJECTIVEFACTORSWHICHVARYGREATLYAMONGINDIVIDUALSWITHDIFFERENTSOCIOECONOMICCHARACTERISTICSTHESETOFSUBJECTIVEMOTIVESIDENTIFIEDBYKEYNESINCLUDESTHEMOTIVESOFPRECAUTION,FORESIG
41、HT,CALCULATION,IMPROVEMENT,INDEPENDENCE,ENTERPRISE,PRIDE,ANDAVARICESEETHEGENERALTHEORY,PP107109LIKEWISE,THELIFECYCLETHEORYALSOPREDICTSTHATMAJORDIFFERENCESEXISTINTHECONSUMPTIONANDSAVINGBEHAVIOROFHETEROGENEOUSINDIVIDUALSEARLIERMICROECONOMICSTUDIESAREMOSTLYCONDUCTEDSAVINGBEHAVIOROFHETEROGENEOUSINDIVIDU
42、ALSEARLIERMICROECONOMICSTUDIESAREMOSTLYCONDUCTEDWITHINTHETHEORETICALFRAMEWORKOFTHECERTAINTYEQUIVALENCEMODELCEQMODELORIGINATEDFROMTHEWORKOFMODIGLIANIANDBRUMBERG1954ANDTHEPERMANENTINCOMEHYPOTHESISOFFRIEDMAN1957INRECENT8DECADES,HOWEVER,MOSTSTUDIESHAVERELIEDHEAVILYONTHEEULEREQUATIONDERIVEDBYHALL1978,WHO
43、INTRODUCESUNCERTAINTYINTOTHEANALYSISNEVERTHELESS,BOTHTHECEQMODELANDTHEEULEREQUATIONPREDICTTHATEQUILIBRIUMCONSUMPTIONORSAVINGISAFUNCTIONOFTIMEDISCOUNTING,DEMOGRAPHICVARIABLES,ANDINTERESTRATEINTHELITERATURE,THERELATIONSHIPBETWEENCONSUMPTIONBEHAVIORANDDEMOGRAPHICVARIABLESHASBEENWELLDOCUMENTEDBYHALLMISH
44、KINEMPIRICALEVIDENCEDATASOURCEANDDEFINITIONSALLDATAUSEDINTHISSTUDYCOMEFROMWAVESEVENOFTHE1993PANELOFTHESURVEYOFINCOMEANDPROGRAMPARTICIPATIONSIPPCONDUCTEDBYTHEUSBUREAUOFTHECENSUSSIPPISALONGITUDINALSURVEYTHATCOLLECTSMONTHLYDATAONINCOMEANDPROGRAMPARTICIPATIONOFINDIVIDUALSINTHEUNITEDSTATESTHE1993SIPPPANE
45、LISCONDUCTEDBYINTERVIEWERSFROMFEBRUARY1993TOMAY1996ANDCOVERSTHECIVILIANNONINSTITUTIONALPOPULATIONOFTHEUNITEDSTATESANDMEMBERSOFTHEARMEDFORCESLIVINGOFFPOSTORWITHTHEIRFAMILIESONPOSTTHEPRIMARYFOCUSOFSIPPISPERSONS15YEARSOFAGEANDOVERDATAONFINANCIALASSETSARECONTAINEDINWAVESEVENANDARECOLLECTEDBYINTERVIEWERS
46、FROMFEBRUARY1995TOMAY1995FROMINDIVIDUALSWHOPOSSESSFINANCIALASSETSINTHEIROWNNAMESORJOINTLYWITHSPOUSESFINANCIALASSETSWITHVARIOUSDEGREESOFRISKANDLIQUIDITYCONTAINEDINTHESURVEYINCLUDEREGULARORPASSBOOKSAVINGSACCOUNTS,MONEYMARKETDEPOSITACCOUNTS,CERTIFICATESOFDEPOSITOROTHERSAVINGSCERTIFICATES,NOWORSUPERNOWA
47、CCOUNTSOROTHERINTERESTEARNINGCHECKINGACCOUNTS,MONEYMARKETFUNDS,USGOVERNMENTSECURITIES,MUNICIPALORCORPORATEBONDS,STOCKSANDMUTUALFUNDSHARES,ANDNONINTERESTEARNINGCHECKINGACCOUNTSSIPPALSOCONTAINSCOMPREHENSIVEINFORMATIONONWEALTHANDINCOMETHEAMOUNTOFWEALTHUSEDINTHISSTUDYCONSISTSOFCURRENTINCOME,CURRENTVALUE
48、SOFFINANCIALANDNONFINANCIALASSETSESTIMATEDBYANINDIVIDUALINHISORHERNAMEORJOINTLYOWNEDWITHTHESPOUSE,CURRENTVALUESOFHOMES,AMOUNTDUEFROMSALEOFBUSINESSORPROPERTY,IRAS,KEOGHS,USSAVINGBONDS,ANDPROCEEDSFROMSALESOFMOTORVEHICLESCURRENTINCOMECONSISTSOFBOTHLABORANDNONLABORINCOMESLABORINCOMECONSISTSOFWAGESANDSAL
49、ARIESASWELLASSELFEMPLOYMENTINCOME,WHILENONLABORINCOMECONSISTSOFGOVERNMENTTRANSFERS,INCOMESFROMFINANCIALASSETS,ANDOTHERTYPESOFINCOMETHEOWNUSERCOSTORPRICEOFHOLDINGAFINANCIALASSETISCOMPUTEDINTHEFOLLOWINGMANNERFORINDIVIDUALSWITHRISKYASSETS,MAINLYSTOCKSANDMUTUALFUNDSHARES,THEACTUALRATESOFRETURNAREUSEDASPROXIESFORTHEEXPECTEDRATESOFRETURNINTHETRADITIONALCAPMLINEARMODELFORINDIVIDUALSTHATHAVEONLYRISKLESSMONETARYASSETSINTHEIR9PORTFOLIOS,THEACTUALRATESOFRETURNAREDIRECTLYUSEDASPROXIESFORTHEEXPECTEDRATEOFRETURNTOGETESTIMATESOFTHEUSERCO
