1、1本科毕业论文外文翻译外文文献译文标题20世纪90年代德国的对外贸易资料来源INTERECONOMICS,MARCH/APRIL1998作者J6RGHINZE去年，德国的出口部又以两位数的增长速度获得成功。虽然工业化国家仍是德国主要贸易伙伴，但过去几年的贸易增长贸易促进了南洋和中欧和东欧以及中亚和南美等地区的经济快速发展。南洋目前的危机已导致经济发展速度减缓。这对全球贸易和德国的对外贸易会造成什么影响呢德国外贸刚刚度过繁荣的一年。价格调整之后，欧洲经济显着改善的国际竞争力在名义上促成了商品的出口在115到12左右的增长；因此，出口便成为了经济的驱动力。虽然名义上进口也有95的迅速增长，但是被抑
2、制的国内需求的增长实际上只有45。平衡贸易顺差约1300亿马克，几乎匹配1989的记录（1346亿马克），并且只有差不多50亿马克的账户赤字。德国的对外贸易因此再次赶上了全球贸易，并且德国经济甚至可以获得1997年额外的全球市场份额。上世纪90年代，一些关于世界经济的影响深远的变化也反映在德国对外贸易上。因此，虽然贸易与工业化国家仍然占主导地位，一些对外联系呈动态生长的地区，如东南亚，美国，拉丁不仅由于其地理上的接近转型国家的中欧和东欧在过去几年中已变的日益重要，他们与德国对外贸易的联系显著增长。西方工业化国家依旧是德国主要的贸易伙伴，进口和出口的份额总共占了77。然而，自90年代，由于与这些
3、国家有较低的贸易增长，他们与德国的合作对外贸易下降了5左右。他们之间合作的份额下降到约60至55左右，损失几乎完全由欧盟国家承担。这是一个相当显著的发展，考虑到的其中一个主要目标是欧洲共同体加强与其成员国的经济联系，此外，还要完善欧盟在1993年出现的单一市场。与其他地区相比，欧盟经济在90年代的行业的落后可以解释为相对的滞后，而另外一个矛盾的方面，是要完善单一的市场。废除关税意味着不需要任何在报关使用的基础上组建的外贸统计，并且使注册和有货物贸易的欧盟成员国不再依赖贸易公司获得信息。由于新的报告程序不再像之前那样对欧盟成员国之间进行的外贸交易进行登记和分类，而是有一个“突破”的统计。德国对外
4、贸易在欧盟成员国明显减少的份额,2相应地增加在了其他国家的股票因此与其说这是对经济因素的影响倒不如说这是统计上的一个微不足道的改变。然而，德国与大多数在这段时期增长率低于平均水平的欧盟国家之间的贸易也有变化，即欧盟成员国股份的变化。英国是这这些欧盟国家中唯一一个增加其德国出口份额的国家相对于1997年的85；它已成为继法国和美国后第二个最主要进口德国产品的国家。但同时英国对德国的出口也高于平均水平，并以7的股份使之成为在欧盟中仅次于法国，荷兰和意大利的德国最重要的供应商。西班牙和葡萄牙也实现了显着增加的进口份额。与其他工业化国家相比，与欧盟之间的贸易发展地更好。这尤其体现在美国的出口和进口都明
5、显增加。90年代美国出口增长的决定性因素是不断创新。这些增长都是由于汇率的上升。去年美国强劲增长的出口有四分之一以上是助长了德国前货币马克的贬值；其外部价值在1995到1997年中期跌了20左右。德国从美国的进口量的增加也高于平均水平，然而，可能主要是因为在90年代美国重要经济领域的供应商的成功地改善了产品的竞争力和吸引力。由实质性的变化引起的汇率关系波动被其他相当大的波动所掩盖,造成出口日本的只有较小的增长；在上世纪90年代只有25的股份。这主要是由于持续低迷的日本经济，虽然繁复的市场准入条件也有一部分的原因。从日本的进口在过去几年中几乎停滞，而且他们的进口总额从6下降到了5以下。这种下降一
6、个重要的原因，毫无疑问是日元升值；另一个原因是由日本东南亚等邻国引起的日益激烈的竞争。上世纪90年代贸易扩大在最强的新兴市场南洋和拉丁美洲以及经济改革了的中欧和东欧。从1990年到1997年，出口到南洋的“第一和第二代牛市经济”平均每年增加了12，而到中部国家和美国南部的每年也平均增长了近10。欧洲中部的经济改革取得了很大的进展，自1991年以来在其过渡过程中每年增长了平均20左右。这三个地区的德国出口份额总数从开始的十年前的8到1997的14，即改革后中欧经济实际上增加一倍，从3到6。由此看出，上世纪90年代的前一半经济发展不明显,而在过去的两年里才看到大量的出口到CIS使经济形势开始趋于稳
7、定。从东南亚，拉丁美洲和经济改革后的中欧的进口增长速度也高于平均水平，这样，有一个明显的强化国际分工与动态生长地区的南洋和美国，以上所有德国的中部和东部欧洲邻国。鉴于低迷的状态的德国经济，但是，从这些国家进口增加明显低于出口相同。因此，1997年时不仅在德国强劲增长的盈余，与其他工业化国家，在那里他们3总额约950亿马克，但在过去几年里即使是一个显着增加，贸易盈余新兴工业化经济南洋随着经济中心和改革东欧分别为约90亿马克和100多亿马克。只有日本（大约150亿马克）和中国（100亿马克）有重大赤字积累。南洋经济增长突然受阻所造成的地区的金融危机的程度基本没有观察员可以预见到的。虽然目前此次危机
8、的影响已被包含不仅因国际货币基金组织干预它不能假定,但考虑到广泛的结构问题,对于许多的东南亚国家而言这场危机已经结束了。不过仍然无法预见它对国家的发展与稳定会产生什么影响。在该地区的国家，如中国和印度，是否将陷入困境以及这些国家是否会被迫将本币贬值以保持竞争力。南洋的发展也在中欧，东欧，拉丁美洲以及以前被视为“增长中心”的两个其他地区造成不确定影响。这些国家所在的地区存在一定程度的结构性问题争论和对外贸易失衡，类似于东南亚国家为了防止和东欧和丹麦，他们的货币也或多或少与美元挂钩。4外文文献原文TITLEREGIONALDEVELOPMENTOFGERMANFOREIGNTRADEINTHE19
9、90SMATERIALSOURCEINTERECONOMICS,MARCH/APRIL1998AUTHORJ6RGHINZEWITHADOUBLEDIGITGROWTHRATE,GERMANYSEXPORTSECTORWASAGAINVERYSUCCESSFULLASTYEARWHILETHEINDUSTRIALISEDCOUNTRIESCONTINUETOBEGERMANYSMAINTRADINGPARTNERSGROWTHINTHEPASTFEWYEARSHASBEENSTIMULATEDBYTRADEWITHTHEBOOMINGREGIONSOFSOUTHEASTASIAANDCENTR
10、ALANDEASTERNEUROPEASWELLASWITHCENTRALANDSOUTHAMERICATHECURRENTCRISISINSOUTHEASTASIAHASLEDTOANABRUPTSLOWDOWNINTHEREGIONSECONOMICDEVELOPMENTWHATWILLBETHECONSEQUENCESFORGLOBALTRADEINGENERALANDFORGERMANFOREIGNTRADEINPARTICULARGERMANYSFOREIGNTRADEHASJUSTCOMPLETEDSOMETHINGOFABOOMYEARLCONSOLIDATIONOFTHEEUR
11、OPEANECONOMYANDAMARKEDIMPROVEMENTININTERNATIONALCOMPETITIVENESS1LEDTOANINCREASEINNOMINALMERCHANDISEEXPORTS2OF12ANDOFAROUND111/2AFTERPRICEADJUSTMENTSEXPORTSTHUSBECAMETHEDRIVINGFORCEINTHEECONOMYTHEREWASALSOASTRONG91/2NOMINALRISEINIMPORTS,BUTDUETORESTRAINEDDOMESTICDEMANDTHEINCREASEWASAMODERATE41/2INREA
12、LTERMSTHEBALANCEOFTRADESURPLUSOFAROUNDDM130BILLIONALMOSTMATCHEDTHE1989RECORDDM1346BILLION,ANDTHEREWASONLYAMINORCURRENTACCOUNTDEFICITOFANESTIMATEDDM5BILLIONGERMANYSFOREIGNTRADETHUSCAUGHTUPWITHGLOBALTRADEAGAIN,ANDTHEGERMANECONOMYWASEVENABLETOGAINADDITIONALGLOBALMARKETSHARESIN1997THEFARREACHINGCHANGESW
13、HICHHAVETAKENPLACEINTHEWORLDECONOMYDURINGTHE1990SAREALSOREFLECTEDINTHEREGIONALDEVELOPMENTOFGERMANYSFOREIGNTRADETHUSALTHOUGHTRADEWITHTHEINDUSTRIALIZEDCOUNTRIESSTILLDOMINATESSEETABLESIAND2,THEDYNAMICGROWTHREGIONSOFSOUTHEASTASIA,LATINAMERICAANDNOTLEASTASARESULTOFTHEIRGEOGRAPHICPROXIMITYTHETRANSITIONCOU
14、NTRIESOFCENTRALANDEASTERNEUROPEHAVEBECOMEINCREASINGLYIMPORTANTINTHEPASTFEWYEARSSEEFIG1THEIRSHAREOFGERMANFOREIGNTRADEHASRISENMARKEDLYTHEWESTERNINDUSTRIALISEDCOUNTRIESCONTINUETOBEGERMANYSMAINTRADINGPARTNERSWITHA77SHAREOFBOTHIMPORTSANDEXPORTSHOWEVER,SINCETHEREWAS5BELOWAVERAGEGROWTHINTRADEWITHTHESECOUNT
15、RIESDURINGTHE1990S,THEIRSHAREOFGERMANFOREIGNTRADEHASFALLENBYAROUND5SINCE1990/91THELOSSESWEREBORNEALMOSTEXCLUSIVELYBYTHEEUCOUNTRIESWHOSESHAREDECLINEDFROMAPPROXIMATELY60TOAROUND55THISISQUITEAREMARKABLEDEVELOPMENTCONSIDERINGTHATONEOFTHEMAJORGOALSOFTHEEUROPEANCOMMUNITYWASTOINTENSIFYECONOMICTIESBETWEENIT
16、SMEMBERSTATESAND,MOREOVER,THATTHECOMPLETIONOFTHEECSINGLEMARKETIN1993TOOKPLACEDURINGTHISPERIODTHISFALLINTRADESHARESCANBEEXPLAINEDINPARTBYTHERELATIVESLUGGISHNESSOFTHEEUECONOMYDURINGTHE1990SCOMPAREDTOOTHERREGIONSANDONTHEOTHERHAND,PARADOXICALLY,BYTHECOMPLETIONOFTHESINGLEMARKETTHEABOLITIONOFCUSTOMSDUTIES
17、MEANTTHATTHEREWASNOLONGERANYNEEDFORTHECUSTOMSDECLARATIONSWHICHUSEDTOFORMTHEBASISOFFOREIGNTRADESTATISTICS,ANDTHEREGISTRATIONOFGOODSTRADEBETWEENEUMEMBERSTATESBECAMEDEPENDENTONINFORMATIONFROMTHETRADINGCOMPANIESSINCETHENEWREPORTINGPROCEDURENOLONGERENABLESFOREIGNTRADETRANSACTIONSBETWEENEUMEMBERSTATESTOBE
18、REGISTEREDANDCLASSIFIEDTOTHESAMEDEGREEASBEFORE,4THEREHASBEENA“BREAK“INTHESTATISTICSTHEMARKEDDECLINEINTHEEUMEMBERSSHAREOFGERMANFOREIGNTRADEANDTHECORRESPONDINGINCREASEINOTHERCOUNTRIESSHARESISTHEREFOREDUETOANOTINCONSIDERABLEEXTENTTOSTATISTICALRATHERTHANECONOMICFACTORS5HOWEVER,GERMANYSTRADEWITHMOSTEUCOU
19、NTRIESGREWATBELOWAVERAGERATESINTHEFOLLOWINGPERIODTOO,ANDTHEREWERESHIFTSINTHEEUMEMBERSSHARESOFGERMANFOREIGNTRADEGREATBRITAINWASTHUSTHEONLYEUCOUNTRYTOINCREASEITSSHAREOFGERMANEXPORTSTO81/2IN1997ITHASBECOMETHESECONDMOSTIMPORTANTRECIPIENTOFGERMANPRODUCTSAFTERFRANCEANDISROUGHLYLEVELPEGGINGWITHTHEUSAYETATT
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21、YTHANWITHTHEEUTHISISPARTICULARLYTRUEOFTHEUSAWHOSESHAREOFBOTHEXPORTSANDIMPORTSINCREASEDMARKEDLYTHEDECISIVEFACTORBEHINDEXPORTGROWTHTOTHEUSAINTHE1990SWASTHESUSTAINEDUPSWINGINAMERICATHESEGROWTHIMPULSESWEREAMPLIFIEDBYEXCHANGERATEDEVELOPMENTSLASTYEARSSTRONGINCREASEINEXPORTSTOTHEUSABYMORETHANONEQUARTER6WAS
22、FUELLEDBYTHEPREVIOUSSIZEABLEDEVALUATIONOFTHEDMARKAGAINSTTHEUSDOLLARITSEXTERNALVALUEFELLBYAROUND20FROMSPRING1995TOMID1997GERMANYSIMPORTSFROMTHEUSAALSOINCREASEDATANABOVEAVERAGERATE,HOWEVER,PROBABLYLARGELYDUETOTHEFACTTHAT,DURINGTHE1990S,AMERICANSUPPLIERSINIMPORTANTAREASOFTHEECONOMYWERESUCCESSFULINIMPRO
23、VINGTHECOMPETITIVENESSANDAPPEALOFTHEIRPRODUCTSMASKEDBYCONSIDERABLEFLUCTUATIONSWHICHWERECAUSEDBYSUBSTANTIALSHIFTSINEXCHANGERATERELATIONSHIPS,EXPORTSTOJAPANINCREASEDINGENERALATAMODESTRATEONLYTHEIRSHAREHELDAT21/2INTHE1990STHISWASMAINLYDUETOTHECONTINUINGSLUGGISHNESSOFTHEJAPANESEECONOMY,ALTHOUGHONEROUSMA
24、RKETENTRYCONDITIONSDOUBTLESSPLAYEDTHEIRPARTTOOIMPORTSFROMJAPANHAVEVIRTUALLYSTAGNATEDINTHEPASTFEWYEARS,ANDTHEIRSHAREOFTOTALIMPORTSFELLFROM6TOJUSTUNDER5ONESIGNIFICANTREASONFORTHISDECLINEWASDOUBTLESSTHEAPPRECIATIONOFTHEYENANOTHERREASONWASTHEINCREASINGCOMPETITIONFROMJAPANSSOUTHEASTASIANNEIGHBOURSTRADEEX
25、PANSIONINTHE1990SWASSTRONGESTWITHTHEEMERGINGMARKETSOFSOUTHEASTASIAANDLATINAMERICAANDABOVEALLWITHTHEREFORMINGECONOMIESOFCENTRALANDEASTERNEUROPEBETWEEN1990AND1997,EXPORTSTOSOUTHEASTASIAS“FIRSTANDSECONDGENERATIONTIGERECONOMIES6INCREASEDBYANAVERAGEOF12PA,ANDTOTHECOUNTRIESOFSOUTHANDCENTRALAMERICABYANAVER
26、AGEOFALMOST10PADELIVERIESTOTHEREFORMINGECONOMIESOFCENTRALEUROPEWHICHHAVEMADEMOSTPROGRESSWITHTHETRANSITIONPROCESSHAVEINCREASEDBYASMUCHASANAVERAGEOFAROUND20PASINCE19918THESETHREEREGIONSSHAREOFGERMANEXPORTSTHUSINCREASEDFROMATOTALOF8ATTHESTARTOFTHEDECADETO14IN1997,WHEREBYTHATOFTHEREFORMINGECONOMIESOFCEN
27、TRALEUROPEACTUALLYDOUBLEDFROM3TO6FOLLOWINGTHEPOORDEVELOPMENTSSEENDURINGTHEFIRSTHALFOFTHE1990S,THEPASTTWOYEARSHAVEALSOSEENRENEWEDSTRONGEREXPANSIONOFEXPORTSTOTHECISWHERETHEECONOMICSITUATIONHASBEGUNTOSTABILISEIMPORTSFROMTHEEXPANDINGREGIONSOFSOUTHEASTASIA,LATINAMERICAANDTHEREFORMINGECONOMIESOFCENTRALEUR
28、OPEALSOINCREASEDATABOVEAVERAGERATES,SUCHTHATTHEREWASAMARKEDINTENSIFICATIONOFTHEINTERNATIONALDIVISIONOFLABOURWITHTHEDYNAMICGROWTHREGIONSOFSOUTHEASTASIAANDLATINAMERICA,ANDABOVEALLWITHGERMANYSCENTRALANDEASTERNEUROPEANNEIGHBOURSGIVENTHESLUGGISHSTATEOFTHEGERMANECONOMY,HOWEVER,7IMPORTSFROMTHESECOUNTRIESIN
29、CREASEDATADISTINCTLYLOWERRATETHANEXPORTSTOTHESAMEGERMANYHASTHEREFORENOTONLYPOSTEDSTRONGLYGROWINGSURPLUSESWITHTHEOTHERINDUSTRIALIZEDCOUNTRIES,WHERETHEYTOTALLEDAPPROXIMATELYDM95BILLIONIN1997,BUTINTHEPASTFEWYEARSTHEREHASEVENBEENAMARKEDINCREASEINTRADESURPLUSESWITHTHENEWLYINDUSTRIALISEDECONOMIESOFSOUTHEA
30、STASIAANDWITHTHEREFORMINGECONOMIESOFCENTRALANDEASTERNEUROPETOAROUNDDM9BILLIONANDALITTLEOVERDM10BILLIONRESPECTIVELYSIGNIFICANTDEFICITSHAVEONLYACCUMULATEDWITHJAPANAROUNDDM15BILLIONANDCHINADM10BILLIONECONOMICGROWTHINSOUTHEASTASIAHASSUFFEREDANABRUPTSLOWDOWNASARESULTOFTHEREGIONSFINANCIALCRISIS,THEEXTENTO
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32、ESSOFARAFFECTEDWILLSTABILISEITISALSOUNCERTAINASTOWHETHERFURTHERCOUNTRIESINTHEREGIONSUCHASCHINAORINDIAWILLGETINTODIFFICULTIESANDHOWFARTHESECOUNTRIES,TOO,WILLBEFORCEDTODEVALUETHEIRCURRENCIESINORDERTOREMAINCOMPETITIVETHEDEVELOPMENTSINSOUTHEASTASIAAREALSOCAUSINGUNCERTAINTYINCENTRALANDEASTERNEUROPEANDINL
33、ATINAMERICA,TWOOTHERREGIONSPREVIOUSLYREGARDEDAS“GROWTHCENTRES“THECOUNTRIESINTHESEREGIONSARETOACERTAINEXTENTSTRUGGLINGWITHSTRUCTURALPROBLEMSANDEXTERNALTRADEIMBALANCESSIMILARTOTHOSEOFTHESOUTHEASTASIANSTATES,ANDTHEIRCURRENCIESAREALSOCLOSELYLINKEDTOTHEUSDOLLARORINPART,INTHECASEOFCENTRALEASTERNEUROPE,TOT
34、HEDMARKTHEOPTIMISTICGROWTHFORECASTSFORTHEASIANCOUNTRIESWHICHPREVAILEDUNTILWELLINTOLASTYEARHAVESUFFEREDACONSIDERABLESETBACKFORTHETIMEBEINGMOSTOBSERVERSCURRENTLYASSUMETHATWITHTHEASSISTANCEOFINTERNATIONALORGANISATIONSSUCHASTHEIMF,ANDWITHTHESUPPORTOFBOTHTHEMAJORINDUSTRIALISEDCOUNTRIESANDTHELENDINGBANKS,
35、THECRISISCANBECONTAINEDHOWEVER,EVENIFTHESITUATIONINSOUTHEASTASIASTABILISESQUICKLYTHECRISISANDTHENECESSARYREFORMSWILLINITIALLYDAMPENECONOMICGROWTHINTHECOUNTRIESAFFECTEDSOMECOUNTRIESCANEVENBEEXPECTEDTOSEEADECLINEINECONOMICACTIVITYTHISYEAR,ASWASTHECASEINTHAILANDLASTYEARTHISWILLALSOAFFECTBOTHTHEOTHERCOU
36、NTRIESINTHEREGIONANDTHEIR8MAJORTRADINGPARTNERSDESPITETHECURRENTPROBLEMS,HOWEVER,LONGTERMGROWTHPROSPECTSFORTHESOUTHEASTASIANCOUNTRIESARESTILLCONSIDEREDHIGHLYFAVOURABLEHOWLONGTHECONSOLIDATIONPERIODLASTSWILLDEPENDNOTLEASTONHOWQUICKLYANDHOWCONSISTENTLYTHENECESSARYRESTRUCTURINGMEASURESARECARRIEDOUTTHOSEC
37、OUNTRIESWHICHDOSOFASTESTCANBEEXPECTEDTORETURNSOONTOAPATHOFDISTINCTECONOMICGROWTHAFTERAPERIODOFCONSOLIDATIONFORSOMETIME,HOWEVER,THEPACEOFEXPANSIONWILLCERTAINLYBEWELLBELOWTHATSEENINTHEPAST,IFONLYBECAUSEITMAYBEASSUMEDTHATSOMECOUNTRIESWILLTENDBEHESITANTINIMPLEMENTINGRESTRUCTURINGMEASURESANDBECAUSEINFUTU
38、RETHEINFLOWOFFOREIGNCAPITALISLIKELYTOBESUBJECTTOMORESTRINGENTSCRUTINYTHANHASBEENTHECASEINTHEPASTEVENIFTHEFINANCIALCRISISINSOUTHEASTASIAISDEFUSEDQUICKLY,ITWILLNOTPASSOFFWITHOUTEFFECTONTHEINTERNATIONALEXCHANGEOFGOODSANDSERVICESANDTHUSONECONOMICDEVELOPMENTSINOTHERREGIONSNEGATIVEEFFECTSARETOBEEXPECTEDAS
39、ARESULTOFLOWERGROWTHINTHOSECOUNTRIESAFFECTEDBOTHDIRECTLYANDINDIRECTLYBYTHECRISIS,ANDONTHEOTHERHANDASARESULTOFTHECONSIDERABLESHIFTSININTERNATIONALEXCHANGERATERELATIONSHIPSANDTHECORRESPONDINGDRASTICIMPROVEMENTSININTERNATIONALCOMPETITIVENESSWHICHWILLBENEFITTHEDEVELOPINGCOUNTRIESINSOUTHEASTASIA1THEMAGNI
40、TUDEOFANYDAMPENINGINFLUENCESEMANATINGFROMALOSSOFGROWTHINSOUTHEASTASIASCRISISCOUNTRIESWILLDEPENDONTHEINTENSITYOFTRADELINKSWITHTHEREGIONINITIALLY,THESAMEWILLBETRUEOFTHEEFFECTSRESULTINGFROMTHEIMPROVEDCOMPETITIVENESSOFSOUTHEASTASIANBUSINESSESINTHEWAKEOFTHEEXCHANGERATEDEVELOPMENTSTHISIMPROVEMENTWILLSOONL
41、EADTOANINTENSIFICATIONOFCOMPETITIONONOTHERMARKETS,HOWEVERJUDGINGBYTHEEXTENTOFTHEIRTRADELINKSWITHSOUTHEASTASIA,THECOUNTRIESLIKELYTOBEHARDESTHITBYTHEEFFECTSOFTHECRISISINSOUTHEASTASIAAREJAPANANDTHEUSA,BUTALSOLATINAMERICAHERE,INTHEMAJORITYOFCASES,ASIAACCOUNTSFORATHIRDOFTOTALEXPORTSJAPANWILLSUFFERMOSTFRO
42、MTHECRISISSIMPLYBECAUSEOFITSGEOGRAPHICALPROXIMITYTOANDCLOSEECONOMICINTERACTIONWITHITSSOUTHEASTASIANNEIGHBOURSJAPANISALSOTHELARGESTCREDITORGROWTHFORECASTSFORTHEJAPANESEECONOMYHAVEBEENPAREDDOWNCONSIDERABLYFOR1998ATLEASTTHEREHASALSOBEENSUBSTANTIALDOWNWARDREVISIONTOGROWTHSCENARIOSFORLATINAMERICA12WHERED
43、EPRESSEDEXPORTSTOSOUTHEASTASIA,GREATERCIRCUMSPECTIONINGRANTING9LOANSTOTHESECOUNTRIES,ANDFALLINGREVENUESFROMCOMMODITYEXPORTSDUETOADROPINPRICESWILLDAMPENPREVIOUSLYSTRONGEXPANSIONTHISWILLALSOBEREFLECTEDINGERMANEXPORTSTOCENTRALANDSOUTHAMERICATHEUSA,ONTHEOTHERHAND,WILLBELESSBADLYAFFECTEDBYTHEFINANCIALCRI
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45、LLALSOIMPAIRGERMANEXPORTS,BUTTHEEXTENTOFANYLOSSESISDIFFICULTTOESTIMATEONTHEONEHAND,THEEIGHT“TIGERECONOMIES“ACCOUNTFORLITTLEMORETHAN5OFGERMANEXPORTSTHEWEIGHTOFTHEFIVECOUNTRIESMOSTAFFECTEDISEVENLOWER,ATJUST3CONSEQUENTLY,EVENA20PERCENTREDUCTIONINDELIVERIESTOTHEASIAN“TIGERECONOMIES“WOULD,ONPAPER,TAKEONL
46、YASINGLEPERCENTAGEPOINTOFFGERMANYSTOTALEXPORTSONTHEOTHERHANDONEMUSTALSOTAKEINTOACCOUNTTHERETARDINGEFFECTSWHICHSLOWERGROWTHINSOUTHEASTASIAWILLHAVEONOTHERCOUNTRIESANDREGIONSWHICHHAVERELATIVELYCLOSEFOREIGNTRADECONNECTIONSWITHTHECRISISCOUNTRIESFURTHERMORE,EXPORTPROSPECTSFORGERMANCOMPANIESWILLBEIMPAIREDB
47、YTHEFALLINVALUEOFTHESOUTHEASTASIANCURRENCIESWITHTHEEXCEPTIONOFTHEHONGKONGDOLLAR,THE“TIGERCURRENCIES“HAVEBEENDEVALUEDBYBETWEEN10ANDAGOOD70AGAINSTTHEDMARKSINCEAUGUST1997THISMAKESIMPORTSFROMGERMANYCONSIDERABLYMOREEXPENSIVE,ANDMANYIMPORTERSARERUNNINGINTOPAYMENTDIFFICULTIESINTHEFACEOFTHENEWEXCHANGERATERE
48、LATIONSHIPSHAVINGBEENPEGGEDTOTHEUSDOLLARWHILEHAVINGCONSIDERABLYDIFFERENTINFLATIONRATES,THECURRENCIESOFTHESOUTHEASTASIANCRISISCOUNTRIESHADDOUBTLESSBEENOVERVALUED,SUCHTHATANEXCHANGERATECORRECTIONWASLONGOVERDUEINMOSTCASES,HOWEVER,THEEXTENTOFTHEIRDEVALUATIONWITHINSUCHASHORTPERIODOFTIMEHASFAREXCEEDEDTHEA
49、DJUSTMENTREQUIREMENTSEVENIFMOSTOFTHECURRENCIESWHICHHAVEBEENUNDERPRESSUREHAVERECENTLYMANAGEDTORECOVERATASLIGHTLYHIGHERLEVEL,THEREHASSTILLBEENCONSIDERABLEAPPRECIATIONOFTHEDMARKINRELATIONTOTHECURRENCIESOFTHESOUTHEASTASIANCRISISCOUNTRIESATTHESTARTOFTHISYEAR,ITSTRADEWEIGHTEDEXTERNALVALUEWAS65HIGHERTHANAYEARPREVIOUSLYCONSEQUENTLY,WECANEXPECTCONSIDERABLEADDITIONALDAMPENINGEFFECTSONGERMANEXPORTSTOSOUTHEASTASIA,BUTALSOCONSIDERABLEIMPULSESFORIMPORTSFROMTHE10REGIONTHECRISISINSOUTHEASTASIAHASALREADYHADANEFFECTONGERMANYSEXPORTSDELIVERIESTOTHAILANDANDSOUTHKOREAWEREALREADYINDECLINEDU
