1、5THE REAL ECONOMY IN THE LONG RUN长期 中的实际经济Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc. 长期 (LR)：所有的经济变量都有充足的时间作出调整。例如，超越一个合同时期。 实际（ real）：没有货币，或不考虑货币的影响。 属于古典理论。 考虑的是一个趋势Production and Growth生产与增长Chapter 12Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, I
2、nc.Long-Run Economics Growth is the Key to Rising Living StandardA countrys standard of living depends on its ability to produce goods and services.一国的生活水平决定于它生产物品与劳务的能力。Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.What is economic growth?u Economic Growth: represents the e
3、xpansion of a countrys potential GDP or national output.u Potential GDP :the level of GDP attained when all firms are producing at capacity.u Production Possibility Frontier (PPF) shifts outward. Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.Production and Growth生产与增长In the
4、United States over the past century, average income as measured by real GDP per person has grown by about 2 percent per year.在美国过去一个世纪里，按人均实际 GDP衡量的平均收入每年增长 2左右。1978-2006:我国 GDP年均实际增长率为 9.6%2012:我国实际 GDP增长 7.8%Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.表表 1. 不同不同 的增长经历的增长
5、经历Copyright2004 South-Western国别 时期 期初人均 GDP 期末人均 GDP 增长率（每年） 日本 1890 2008 1540美元 35200美元 2.71巴西 1900 2008 779 10070 2.40墨西哥 1900 2008 1159 14270 2.35德国 1870 2008 2184 35940 2.05加拿大 1870 2008 2375 36220 1.99中国 1900 2008 716 6020 1.99美国 1870 2008 4007 46970 1.80阿根廷 1900 2008 2293 14020 1.69英国 1870 200
6、8 4080 36130 1.47 印度 1900 2008 675 2960 1.38印度尼西亚 1900 2008 891 3830 1.36巴基斯坦 1900 2008 737 2700 1.21孟加拉国 19002008 623 1440 0.78Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.Calculating Growth Rate uThe Growth Rate of GDP during a particular year.uFor longer periods of time,
7、 we can use average annual growth rate.uFor longer periods of time, we get approximately the same answer by averaging growth rate for each year.Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.Compounding and the Rule of 70复利计算与 70规则的魔力According to the rule of 70, if some varia
8、ble grows at a rate of x percent per year, then that variable doubles in approximately 70/x years.根据 70规则， 如果某个变量每年按 x% 增长，那么在将近 70/x年以后该变量翻一番。Number of years to double=70/Growth RateHarcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.An Example of the Rule of 70u$5,000 invested at 7 percent interest per year, will double in size in 10 years 70/ 7 = 10
