1、CHALLENGING BOUNDARIES李文勇 2006年 12月风险评估的基本原则CHALLENGING BOUNDARIESContents内容Safety and risks安全和风险Hazards and risks危险和风险Risks and risk reduction风险和减少风险Layers of protection保护层Applying the Farmer curve应 用等高曲线图Risk analysis at Rhodia罗地亚的风险分析Performing a risk analysis风险分析的实施CHALLENGING BOUNDARIESSafety a
2、nd risks 安全与风险What is safety 什么是安全 ?Ability of a system to operate without harming people or the environment or damaging property是一种在运行中不对人员或环境构成伤害或对财产造成损害的系统能力Opening remarks 注释 Safety is a subjective concept 安全是主观概念 Dont wait for an accident to occur to draw lessons from it: a preliminary assessme
3、nt should be made at the design stage不要等到事故后再从中吸取教训：在设计阶段就应做初评 Minimising risks makes for costly improvements最小化风险有利于重要的改进 : it is important to know if the savings justify the cost involved重要的是知道节约是否值得 A quantitative approach is essential定量的方法必要的 There is no such thing as zero risk不存在零风险 Which begs
4、the question about the acceptability of a risk关于风险的可接受性要问哪些问题CHALLENGING BOUNDARIESOur glossary definitions of hazard and risk我们关于危险和风险的解释 Hazard危险 = a situation with a certain inherent potential to cause harm to people, the environment and property客观存在的可损害人 ,环境和财产的因素 Risk风险 = the assessment of a ha
5、zard associating the probability P of an unwanted event occurring and the severity S of its consequences风险是对引起不期望事件发生的可能性和结果的严重度的危险的评估Example of a person walking along a cliff举一个走在悬崖边的人的例子 Hazard危险 = the cliff悬崖 Risk风险 = person falling off the cliff人掉下悬崖+ The hazard is always present, but the risk o
6、f falling appears only when someone is exposed to the hazard. In other words, when the person ventures along the edge of the cliff危险总是存在的 ， 但风险只是在有人暴露在危险中、冒险沿着悬崖边走时才存在Safety and risks 安全与风险CHALLENGING BOUNDARIES危险 ：客观上会对人员及财产产生 危险的状态 。风险 ：结合可能发生事件的概率及其严重性而对危险进行的评估 。“ 零风险不存在 ”风 险危 险Safety and risks 安
7、全与风险CHALLENGING BOUNDARIES不可接受的不可接受的预防预防 / 保护保护可接受的可接受的危险 风险保护预防Safety and risks 安全与风险CHALLENGING BOUNDARIESHazards related to SUBSTANCES和 化学物质 有关的危险 Toxicity, ecotoxicity毒性 ,生态毒性 Poisoning, pollution中毒，污染 Corrosiveness腐蚀性 Leaks, Burns, 泄漏，烧伤 Biological agent 生物的 Illness疾病 Flammability可燃 F, EG, PS (
8、DD possible)火，可燃气体，可燃固体 (可能的尘爆炸 ) Instability, reactivity稳定性，反应性 ET, DD 热爆炸， (可能的尘爆炸 )Hazards related to CONDITIONS和 反应参数 有关的危险 Pressure压力 Rupture, equip. collapses破裂、设备崩裂 Temperature温度 Thermal burns, equip. ruptures热烧伤、设备破裂Hazards and risks 危险与风险In industry in general.在一般工业里 .CHALLENGING BOUNDARIES
9、Hazards related to EQUIPMENT和 设备 有关的危险 Rotating machinery旋转机械 Mechanical injury机械伤害 Electricity电流 Electrocution触电事故 Radiation, EM waves辐射线、波 Injury伤害Hazards related to a facilitys environment与 装置环境 有关的危险 Nature-related hazards涉及自然的危险 : atmosphere大气圈 , lithosphere 岩石圈Hazards related to HUMAN ACTIVITY
10、和 人员活动 有关的危险 Nearby industrial site在工厂附近 Transport (railways, highways, airports, etc.)运输（公路、高速路，机场等） People (terrorist attacks, etc.) 人（恐怖分子袭击等）In industry in general.Hazards and risks 危险与风险CHALLENGING BOUNDARIESRisks and risk reduction 风险和减少风险F.R. FARMER (UK Atomic Energy Agency - 1967) created a
11、graph for serious accidents英国的原子能所建立了严重事故曲线图 The existence of an allowable maximum probability, decreasing function of severity 容许出现事故的最大可能性 ,逐渐减少严重度的作用 The curve separates two zones.曲线分开了两个区域 .PSUnacceptable risk zone不可接受的风险区域Acceptable risk zone可接受的风险区域CHALLENGING BOUNDARIESRisk control 风险控制 = all
12、 potential accident所有潜在的事故 situations in the acceptable risk zone把所有潜在的事故状况控制在可接受的风险区内 By eliminating a hazard (the cliff!)通过排除危险 (悬崖 ) = intrinsic safety原有安全度 By lowering the probability and / or severitypreventive and / or protective safeguards通过降低可能性或严重性 =预防性或 保护性的安全装置PSPrevention预防Protection保护Risks and risk reduction 风险和减少风险
