1、1Analysis of the financial crisis on challenges and opportunities to Chinas economic developmentAbstract. The current round of international financial crisis or the world economy is facing a sharp decline risk. Or the real economy has been or will face more severe impact. Under the background of the
2、 global financial crisis and the economic crisis， China has more opportunities than challenges. Crisis is a risk and also an opportunity. In the level of reform， there are still a large number of things to do. The proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy should be flexible， prude
3、nt and coordinate. Then China can be invincible and make greater contributions to achieve our development goals for the long-term development and reform. Key words： financial crisis； Chinas economic development； challenges； opportunities 1.Analysis of the bailout cost of financial crisis In view of
4、the world financial crisis， to get rid of the economic downturn and contrarian expansion of extraordinary provisions of the amount of loose monetary policy made by the monetary authorities， seem to be more in line with the need of 2getting rid of the crisis. However， from the effect of previous bail
5、out policy implementation， this unconventional policy of “make bubble with bubble” cannot save the economy any more， but oppositely will cause bigger bailout cost， and ultimately hinder the economic recovery and result in the risk of high inflation. So at present all the countries must get out of th
6、is “unconventional“ liquidity expansion policy and return to normal state as soon as possible. 1.1 Quasi-quantitative easing monetary policies hindered the process of economic recovery in the United States during the Great Depression In the view of the history of the global crisis， the liquidity pol
7、icy was not an effective tool rescuing for crisis， but turned out to be the culprit that kidnap the process of global economic recovery， the Great Depression in the 1930s was confirmed. In the late Great Depression period， the Fed adopted a loose monetary policy in order to combat deflation. On the
8、one hand， it increased the base money； on the other hand， it cut the federal funds rate. From 1929 to 1933， the monetary base has increased by 20%. From 1929 to 1935， commercial paper rate declined from 5.9% to 0.8%. However， the Fed has increased the supply of base money， but 3due to existence of e
9、ndogenous money supply， money supply （M1） declined by more than 25% at the end of the banking crisis in March 1929 to 1933. After the appreciation of the dollar， a lot of money invested in real estate and the stock market to seek opportunities for increasing the value. Due to this The United States
10、domestic appeared rapid expansion of financial asset prices and the number， and after 1934 United States appeared more than 10% of high inflation. 1.2 After Asian financial crisis， the quantitative easing monetary policy also failed to make the Japanese economy out of the “growth recession“ The Asia
11、n financial crisis in the summer of 1997 was directly dealt a blow to the Japanese economy. In February 1999， in view of the major banks facing business crisis， the Bank of Japan cut down short-term interest rates for short-term financial markets induced target from 0.5% to zero， implemented the unp
12、recedented so-called “zero-interest rate policy”. Japanese reserve currency reached to more than 400 billion， and base money supply growth from the previous 10%to 20% after Japans quantitative easing monetary policy， From 1990 to 2002， Japans real GDP grew by about $ 0.5 trillion， 4while the capacit
13、y utilization was a serious shortage. In this 10-year period， the industrial operating rate to the 1980s were lower about 12%， but in the same period of industrial finished goods inventory were higher nearly 20%. In addition， if you simply calculated from the effective demand perspective， the Bank o
14、f Japans ultra-loose monetary policy made negative growth in Japan about -3% every year. 1.3 The unconventional financial crisis bailout policy made the process of global recovery become more tortuous For a long time， spam bill and issue huge national debt were the two major driving forces to the gr
15、owth engine of the U.S. economy. So Dollar standard fact has evolved into a debt based system in the United States. At the end of 2008， the U.S. government， the total social security， corporate， personal， non-profit organizations whose debt have reached eight times of the gross domestic product （GDP
16、）. U.S. budget deficit was about 1.47 trillion in 2009， made the size of the deficit accounted for 9.9% of GDP， respectively were 2.16 times in 2008 and 7.84 times in 2007， which was the pinnacle of the American deficit since 1945. The financial liabilities of the United States in 2009 totally reach
17、ed to $ 12 trillion， accounting for 82.5% of GDP in 2009. Therefore， the Fed 5started quantitative easing monetary policy potential intention is to greatly expand the balance sheet of the monetary authorities， monetized fiscal deficits to offset the cost of debt again. In this sense， the United Stat
18、es does not fear inflation； instead it may be the biggest beneficiaries of this global crisis. 2. Chinese economies go to a new step in the future five years Macroeconomic trends always are not open around topic for an economist. PMI in October over the same period of previous increased 50.2%. “PMI
19、composite index is a forward-looking indicator， representing the surveyed purchasing managers judgment for the future economic growth situation. In October， PMI data rise again and return to above the critical point after felling in five months and even for two consecutive months below 50%， this sen
20、ds a signal that the economy has shown a trend of expansion in the fourth quarter， However， return to basic economic theory， short-term growth can rely on labor and capital inputs. But when ratio of input and output appeared decreasing returns to scale effect， if break through the bottleneck it must
21、 rely on technological progress and institutional progress， then at a higher level to 6promote the new and effective scale incrementing. While for Chinese economy， it is should form a new reasonable growth structure， “if there is a good guide， the huge demand for the service and consumer market will
22、 become one of the highlights of the future industrial structure， the clean energy industries and other strategic emerging industries which developed are in accordance with the industrial laws， will also be the highlights of future rational industrial structure.” Analysis from the world economy and
23、dynamic environment， it is a rare opportunity for Chinas economic transformation. Especially when the developed economies are vulnerable； this provides an active restructuring and adjustment space to the Chinese economy. From the dynamic changes to see， new pattern of global economic rebalancing may
24、 not be related to the pre-crisis .it need forward-looking concern about the changes in the international and domestic economic environment， and look squarely at this stage of Chinas economic characteristics and contradictions. Therefore， you can not over-tangle short-term economic growth rate， it s
25、hould take advantage of the timing of the restructuring and adjustments. If transition of Chinas economy is smooth， Chinese economy is able to get out of the 7bottleneck and go to a new step in the next five years. 3. “period of strategic opportunity“ is still in Chinas peaceful development of forei
26、gn economic policy period In 21st century， Chinas total economy is the second largest in the world； it is fully participating in economic globalization and regional cooperation and deeply involving in international affairs and global governance， becoming important factors affect the changes in the w
27、orld situation and international relations. Chinas peaceful development will not be at the expense of their own national interests and territorial security and maritime rights and interests， while China will also let the outside world to believe with our wisdom that China is all the strong rely for
28、global economic development and world peace and stability in the past， in the future. The judgment of the external environment and the principles of peaceful development determine Chinas foreign policy is “unchanged” or “change“. “Unchanged“ reflects the foreign policy of peaceful development， “keep
29、ing a low profile“ principle has not changed， priority to the interests of the sort of economic development has not change， and the United States for the most important diplomatic priorities also has 8not changed. 4. More actively involved in the international community In fact， China is more active
30、 cooperating with the international society， and join forces to stimulate the economy after the financial crisis， Chinese economy was the first going out of the doldrums and become a global economic stabilizer； China participated in global governance reform， urged the a harmonious worlds internation
31、al order with developing countries； through the platform of the Group of 20， and in the reform of IMF representation making the influence in international affairs significantly increased. Seize the bond of interest to take care of each other， and to promote mutual understanding and trust， these beco
32、me the Service to establish long-term stable and healthy development of relations between the major powers. The face of various external pressures in the new period is a double-edged sword， solving puzzles exercise the ability of China goes to the international. Actively participate in international
33、 peacekeeping， send international youth volunteers and medical teams， carry out overseas education cooperation Confucius Institute， and so on， all these initiatives won reputation and trust， create a good external environment for China. For 9ensuring build a moderately prosperous society by 2020， Ch
34、ina is more need for a peaceful and stable international environment in future. In the next decade， China whether has a difference for foreign or not， and how to make a difference， are challenges for the new leadership and also are major opportunities for the future. 5. Sino-EU relations and economi
35、c development forecast Disputes occurred frequently in trade that is really hurt feelings for the Chinese people who regard friendship as importance. Europeans， on one hand， throw a punch constantly crack down on Chinas export， on the other hand， spared no effort to “demand money” in China “， they n
36、ot only required China to rescue the Euro zone generously with money， but also make every effort to attract huge investments from China. It seems unreasonable. It is the representation of government lack of contact between policy-making and political aspirations on basically. Coordination between th
37、e different economic policies and political vision is necessary. Trade disputes not only occurs between the friendly nation ， but also occurs in a variety of economic relations， as long as it can be resolved within the law， it should not affect other aspects of bilateral relations. 10Since 2003， the
38、 total trade volume between China and the EU continue to refresh the historical record， Sino-EU trade exceeded 500 billion U.S. dollars for the first time in 2011. From January to September in 2012， Sino-EU bilateral trade amounted to $ 411 billion. From the European point of view， the sovereign cri
39、sis may be wave resurgence， the competitiveness of euro area crisis countries and neighboring countries is fatigued and weaken， the way of economic recovery is hard. In this environment， it is difficult to make people hold optimistic mood to the trade conflict. The future of the bilateral relationsh
40、ip quality， to a great extent， depends on China and Europe its own economic reform scale. It also determines next ten years both sides have how much degree of coordination in the policy. 6. To deal with the manufacturing crisis through market-oriented cooperation First to see a group of such data： t
41、he third quarter of 2012， Chinas GDP grew 7.4% year-on-year. This is the lowest economic growth data since the 14 quarters start from the second quarter of 2009. Enter the fourth quarter of 2012， with the CPI remained low； the number of economic data is also getting gradually warmer. In October， the official PMI was
