Measurement of Regional Economic Disparity among Eastern, Central and Western China.doc

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1、1Measurement of Regional Economic Disparity among Eastern, Central and Western ChinaAbstract. From the perspective of regional economics and in the light of classical theories and investigative actualities of regional economic disparity at home and abroad, the composite indicators including per capi

2、ta index (per capita GDP and per capita income level of citizens) , static comparative index (relative difference and absolute difference) and coefficient index (coefficient of variation and coefficient of range) are applied to measure the economic disparity among eastern, central and western China

3、from 2005 to 2010, which indicates that the regional economic disparity at this stage is still the core issue for regional economics research and economic development. Key words: Eastern China; Central China; Western China; Economic disparity; Measurement 1. Theoretical basis of regional economic di

4、sparity As a ranged space occupied by human for economic activity, region is a composite of several area units in accordance with homogeneous and functional criteria; as different regions have 2been developing at different speeds, the regional economic disparity comes into being, which is the non-eq

5、ualization of economic development level among various regions throughout the country in a certain period. Regional economic disparity is an important research field and a significant theoretical component of regional economics. 1.1 Foreign classical theories The regional economic disparity was stud

6、ied very early in foreign countries, mainly distributed in growth theory of economics, trade theory, development economics, location theory and regional economics, etc. among which the best-known is the polarization theory in regional economics about the unbalanced growth of regional economy. The po

7、larization theory developed under the condition that the neo-classical theory with increasingly exposed defects was criticized and questioned, whose methods and assertions were contrary to the neo-classical regional balanced development theory. In the 1950s, French economist Francois Perroux first p

8、roposed the growth pole theory by use of motivation effect and de-boost effect; soon afterwards, French economists Boudaille and Lasuen enriched and developed the theory, emphasizing the spatial characteristics of growth pole and placing the 3innovation at the center with the intensification of aggl

9、omerative advantages. The growth pole theory was known as the French School of regional development theories. As two key representatives of polarization theory, Swedish economist Myrdal proposed the cumulative causation theory and American economist Hirschman proposed the unbalanced growth theory, r

10、espectively applying the diffusion effect with backwash effect and the penetration effect with polarization effect to illustrate the interaction among different regions. Similar to the polarization theory, Friedmans centerperiphery theory based on dependency theory of Latin American School held that

11、 the regional economic development tended to reach integration by leading and governing the peripheral area with central cluster of innovations or diffusion of resources. In addition, the inverted U-theory of Williamson explained relations between the regional disparity degree and the economic devel

12、opment level. 1.2 Domestic research progress The regional economic disparity has been studied for a short period in China; the most important research in early days was the “push-by-step theory” and “flying-geese theory” in the mid-1980s, and current study on regional economic disparity includes: di

13、vision of regions in China, 4study on causes of formation of regional disparity, study on selection and measurement of index system of regional disparity, political solutions for regional disparity. Regarding the regional division, there is basically no objection for the dividing of three major regi

14、ons of China (eastern, central and western China) among domestic scholars; however, the specific forms and results of division are not the same. For instance, in 2000, SDPC (State Development Planning Commission) Macroeconomic Research Office divided Guangxi Province into the eastern China and Inner

15、 Mongolia into the central China, while some scholars divided the two provinces into the western China, which results in discrepancy during the comparison of some data and findings. There have been intensive studies on causes of formation of regional disparity: Shen Kunrong et al. (2001) maintained

16、that the unbalanced distribution of direct investment from foreign merchants in different regions widened the gap between eastern and western China. Lin Yifu et al. (2003) believed that the gap of development levels among different regions was caused by non-conforming degree of comparative advantage

17、 determined by the stock collocation of production factors and factor endowments. Peng Zhaohui and Yang Kaizhong (2005) 5established the spatial equilibrium model for the evolution of regional economic disparity, pointing out that the human capital accumulation and transfer cost are the crucial reas

18、ons for the regional disparity. Besides, from perspectives of physical environment, geographic location, macroeconomic policy, regional economic policy, economic system, economic liberalization, distortion of factor market, etc., Lu Dadao et al. (1999) , LI Xiaojian, et al. (2000) , Guo Tengyun et a

19、l. ( 2001) , Gao Zhigang (2002) , Liu Xiaming (2004) and other scholars performed an analysis on the reasons for the changes of Chinas regional economic disparity. Zhang Dunfu and Qin Chenglin (2001 ) held that the disparity emerged for a number of reasons including the national economic policy, reg

20、ional economic structure, investment, human capital, regional economic relations, regional economic foundation, etc. The absolute difference may be measured by index analysis methods of range, dispersion and standard deviation; while the relative difference may be measured by several methods includi

21、ng: Gini coefficient analysis, derived from Lorentz curve for the measurement of wealth and concentration of population, which was adopted by Liu Xiaming (2004) , Xu Zhaoyuan and Li Shantong (2006) ; Theil index analysis, first 6proposed by Theil in 1967 for the study of income gap among different c

22、ountries, which is adopted by Cai Fang and Du Yang (2000) , Li Guoping (2003) , Wang Shaoping and Ouyang Zhigang (2007) , Sun Xuli (2009) , etc.; in addition, the minimum and maximum values, coefficient of variation, convergence coefficient, o convergence coefficient, ATKINSON index, GEN index, etc.

23、 To fully reflect the status of regional economic disparity, given an overall consideration of various factors affecting regional development, a comprehensive and concise evaluation index system is built. In the current study, most domestic scholars analyze and compare the regional economic disparit

24、y by PCA (principal component analysis) , clustering analysis, integrated assessment method, multi-level and multi-objective fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, etc. 2. Measurement of regional disparity among eastern, central and western China Chinas regional economic disparity dates back to the

25、earliest days of liberation; at that time, more than 70% of Chinas industries were concentrated in eastern coastal China with an area of less than 12%, where the industries were mainly concentrated in a few major cities in the northeast and southeast coast like Shanghai, Tianjin and Guangzhou; apart

26、 7from Wuhan, Chongqing and several other industrial cities along the river, there was hardly any industry inland. Southwest and northwest China covering 68% of the whole country area only occupied 9% of Chinas industrial output. From the late 1950s to the early 1960s, China consisted of two regions

27、: coastal area and inland; from the early 1960s to the mid 1970s, in line with different geo-strategic locations, China was divided into first-tier, second-tier and third-tier regions and to alleviate the regional disparity, exploitation of the Western regions were carried out twice, one in the cour

28、se of “first five-year plan” and the other in the course of “third-tier construction”. Since the reform and opening up, China was divided into eastern, central and western regions; in 1990s, along with the rapid economic growth, the imbalance of regional economic development was increasingly signifi

29、cant, manifested chiefly by the regional economic disparity of developed eastern coastal China and underdeveloped Midwest. The eastern, central and western regions mentioned here were divided based on the stair-stepping condition in economic development: the eastern regions including 10 provinces an

30、d municipalities which are Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, 8Fujian, Shandong, Guangdong and Hainan ; the central region including 6 provinces which are Shanxi, Anhui, Jiangxi, Henan, Hubei and Hunan; the western region including 9 provinces and municipalities which are Chongqin

31、g, Sichuan, Guizhou, Yunnan, Shaanxi, Gansu, Qinghai, Ningxia and Xinjiang. The economic disparity of the three regions keeps rising in a state of divergence: with a better historical foundation for the development, the eastern region is provided with favorable conditions for business and trade and

32、superior geographical advantage, belonging to the developed areas; located in the hinterland, the economically backward western region is provided with inadequate infrastructure in slow development, belonging to the underdeveloped areas; while the central region is in the middle position with the ec

33、onomic development conditions inferior to those of eastern coastal areas but superior to those of western areas. The regional disparity concerns the ability and power of sustained development of various regions, concerns the economic cooperation and conflicts among different regions, and concerns th

34、e state overall development strategy and policy layout as well as the formulation and implementation of major policies. Moderate regional gaps are helpful to promote the 9economic growth in backward areas to some extent; however, excessive disparities would result in the “Matthew Effect” (The rich g

35、et richer and the poor get poorer) according to the viewpoint of “development tendency” in regional economics. Regional disparity is not only a purely economic issue but also a vital social problem affecting social stability and peoples well-being. From both the theoretical level and the policy-maki

36、ng level, its critical to study and coordinate the regional economic disparities. Several indexes listed below are applied to conduct the measurement for the regional economic development and the disparity degree in the past six years from 2005 to 2010. 2.1 Comparison of per capita GDP of eastern, c

37、entral and western China Comparative study of absolute difference and relative difference is adopted for the comparison of per capita GDP of eastern, central and western China. The absolute difference is evaluated from three aspects including specific value, standard deviation and range of the annua

38、l per capita GDP; while the relative difference is evaluated from three aspects including index of variation, coefficient of range and growth rate of the annual per capita GDP. As shown in Table 1. 10The regional absolute difference increases 1with the increase of the standard deviation and range; t

39、he greater regional relative difference increases with the increase of the coefficient of variation and coefficient of range, getting increasingly extreme. It can be seen from Table 1 that the regional disparity among eastern, central and western China is quite distinct: from 2005 to 2010, absolute

40、values of per capita GDP of the three major regions varied greatly, ranking in the order of eastern China, central China, and western China. The Mideast lagged behind the eastern China at a large scale for a long period, and viewing from the standard deviation and range of per capita GDP, the situat

41、ion worsened, which indicates the regional absolute difference of China has been expanding. Nevertheless, it can be seen from the Table that the coefficient of variation and coefficient of range of per capita GDP gradually reduced from 2005 to 2010, showing that even if there is a huge economic disparity among the three regions and the absolute difference has been expanding, the regional relative difference is narrowed year by year, especially for the improvement of extreme polarization of eastern and western regions. The above conclusion can be also drawn from the

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