1、Look inside to know when to sell深入洞察，择机出货By Jerry Knight (From T)About 4 pages (1,324 words)The Washington Post, September 22nd, 2003How can you tell when the stock market may be getting too hot? 如何才能判断出股市是否变得过热？Two of the best clues are when insiders decide its time to cash in millions of shares an
2、d speculative penny stocks go through the roof.有两个明显的迹象，一个是内幕交易者决定抛售数百万股票的时候，一个是低价股票大涨特涨(股价暴棚) 的时候。Washington investors last week saw both signs of a raging bull market. Which as anyone who can remember as far back as the last millennium knows is not necessarily good. 上周，华盛顿的投资者们在一路飙升的牛市中目睹了这两种迹象。那些
3、对上一个牛市有记忆的人都会认识到，这种涨势未必是好事。The most compelling evidence that some stock buyers have already forgotten about the bad old days is the astonishing spike in the shares of Xybernaut Corp., a Fairfax company whose “wearable computers“ have long enthralled amateur investors. 可是，有些股民已经忘记了那段惨痛的过去，Xybernaut 公
4、司的股价正直线上升，到了让人咋舌的程度，就是最好的证明。位于菲尔法克斯的 Xybernaut公司推出了“可穿戴式电脑”，一直诱惑着那些业余投资者们。Since the beginning of September, Xybernaut has announced two new orders, totaling $2.1 million, and the market value of its stock has increased by $200 million, nearly tripling from 74 cents a share to $2.17. 九月初以来，Xybernaut
5、公司宣称已经签下两份总价值 210 万美元的新定单。同时，其股票市值增加了 2 亿美元，从每股 74 美分到 2.17 美元，几乎上涨了两倍。Now $2 million is a lot of new business for a company that generates $10 million a year in revenue, but how that makes Xybernaut worth three times what it was in August is a calculation only the people buying the shares can make.
6、 诚然，200 万美元能给一个年收入 1000 万的公司带来许多新的商机。但是，怎么会使 Xybernaut 的股价比八月份上涨了两倍，只有买进这支股票的人才能算清这笔帐。Logical valuation has never been an issue for folks who gamble on Xybernaut, a stock far too volatile to be an investment. Since the company went public in 1996, the stock has traded as high as $23.75 a share and a
7、s low as 21 cents. On Thursday it was the most active issue on the Nasdaq Stock Market, trading 83 million shares - 16 million more than Microsoft. Xybernaut 的股价极不稳定，所以不能视作投资品，但是适合那些投机人士。对他们来说，理论上的计算已经不是关键问题了。自从 1996 年公司股票上市以来，其股价曾达到过每股 23.75 美元的高峰，也一度跌到 21 美分的低谷。本周四，它成为纳斯达克股票市场最为活跃的一支股票，成交量 8300 万股
8、，比微软多了 1600 万股。Spikes like the recent one have occurred several times before, each followed by a crash when the smart speculators bailed out and left somebody else holding the bag. 以前，曾经多次出现过与近来情况类似的股价暴涨，而每次暴涨之后紧跟着一次大跌，随之而来的是，精明的投机者获利出逃，其余的人被套牢。What drives Xybernaut stock is a steady stream of press
9、 releases and a hyperactive, hyperbolic following on Internet message boards. Reading the comments posted in the course of just 15 minutes of Xybernaut chat on Yahoo provides an update in state-of-the-art profanity and absolute proof that some people never learned the lesson of the Incredible Explod
10、ing Tech Bubble or the Perils of Penny Stocks. 推动 Xybernaut 股票上扬的动力来自于一连串的新闻报道以及互联网留言板上疯狂、热烈的讨论。Xybernaut 接受了雅虎专访，看一看在仅仅 15 分钟访谈期间大家发表的评论吧，它会向你展示什么叫忘乎所以到了极点，也充分证明了有些人还没有领教过高科技泡沫的教训，以及低价股票的风险。Reminders of the Roaring 1990s also abound in the willingness of investors to buy stocks from insiders who wa
11、nt to bail out. 20 世纪 90 年代股市一路高歌猛进也助长了投资者的乐观情绪，他们从内部人士那里买进股票，殊不知那些人正在打算出货。Last week insiders at Anteon International Corp., a Fairfax defense contractor, sold $223 million worth of their stock. Anteon went public only 18 months ago at $18 a share and climbed to just under $35 a share before plans f
12、or the secondary sale were announced. 上周，Anteon 国际公司的内部人士出售了总值 2.23 亿美元的股票。这家总部位于费尔法克斯的军工企业在 18 个月前上市，当时每股 18 美元。在二次发行计划宣布之前，公司股价一路攀升，逼近 35 美元。The insiders got $33.80 for the 6.6 million shares they sold on Tuesday. The stock has slipped every day since then, closing Friday at $33.05. 本周二，这些内部人士以 33
13、.80 美元的价格出售了 660 万股股票（二次发行）（33.8*660 万=2.23 亿）。接着，股价一路下滑，本周五以 33.05 美元报收。The offering includes the standard “green shoe“ option that allows the underwriters to sell 15 percent more stock if there are enough buyers. Assuming that happens, as it nearly always does, the insiders would pocket another $3
14、3 million. 本次股票发行包含了标准的“绿鞋”期权，如果有足够多的买家跟进的话，承销商可以卖出 15%的超额配售股份（发行后股价下跌时使用，最大限度规避风险）。倘若情况如此实际上几乎总是如此，这些内部人士会把另外 3300万美元收入囊中。（33.05*660 万*15%=3300 万）A few days earlier, insiders at LCC International Inc. announced plans to sell 5 million of their shares in the McLean company, which helps design and bu
15、ild wireless communications systems. If the offering goes out at about the share price of $4.97, where the stock was trading Friday, they should collect close to $25 million - more if the optional shares are sold. 几天以前，LCC 国际公司的内部人士宣布，公司计划出售其在 McLean 公司（一家协助规划和建设无线通信系统的公司）的 500 万股股票。如果本次出售的股票在 4.97
16、美元左右的价位成交那是这支股票在周五的成交价，那么他们将获利近 2500 万美元。如果卖掉 可选股票，获利将会更多。LCC stock hit $45 a share just before the tech bubble burst in March 2000 but sank as low as $1.25. It was back up to $5 to $6 a share before the announcement of the secondary offering. The stock slipped back after that, but it has stabilized
17、 around $5, giving a pretty good indication of what the 5 million shares might bring. 2000 年 3 月份， LCC 的股票曾达到每股 45 美元。但随着高科技泡沫的破灭，其股价跌落到 1.25 美元。在二次发行公布之前，又重新回到每股 5 到 6 美元之间。随后，该股票有所回调，但是稳定在 5 美元左右，这使得 500 万股股票的收益预期变得相当想理。Why would anybody sell a stock that was once worth $45 a share for $5? 为什么大家要以
18、 5 美元的价格抛售这样一支曾经价值 45 美元的股票？Probably because $45 a share was a bubble price that even the most self-congratulatory insiders know was nonsensical. From their point of view, the benchmark is not how much less the stock is worth than it was at the top, but how much more it is worth than it was at the b
19、ottom. From that perspective $5 beats the heck out of a buck and change. 可能是因为 45 美元的股价只是一个泡沫价格，甚至连最乐观的内部人士都知道，这个价格是毫无意义的。在他们看来，最重要的不是股价比高点时低多少，而是股价比低谷时高多少。依此观点，5 美元价值可能比百万美元的价值更大。Neither company could be reached for comment on the stock sales Friday. The Securities and Exchange Commissions “quiet p
20、eriod“ regulations strictly limit comments by companies before and after stock sales. 在有关本周五股票交易情况的评论中，不能触及到这两家公司的名字。证券交易委员会规定了“缄默期”，在股票发行前后对公司发表的评论进行严格限制。The LCC insiders who are selling are some of the best-known names in Washington - Carlyle Group, the citys biggest private investment firm, and T
21、elecom Ventures LLC, the investment firm founded by Rajendra and Neera Singh. 那些正在抛售 LCC 股票的内幕交易者是几个在华盛顿大名鼎鼎的公司华盛顿最大的私人投资公司卡莱尔集团，还有由雷杰德拉和尼拉.塞恩创立的投资公司 Telecom Ventures LLC。In contrast, the principal person cashing in at Anteon is a virtual unknown in the Washington business community - Frederick J. I
22、seman, a New York venture capitalist for whom Anteon is his first really big score. 相比之下，抛售 Anteon 股票的关键人物在华盛顿工商界却名不见经传，他叫弗雷德里克 J.伊塞曼，是一位风险投资家。Anteon 是他从没见过的暴利股票。Iseman sold about $175 million worth of Anteon stock and will collect another $16.5 million if green shoe is exercised. 伊塞曼已经售出总值约 1.75 亿美
23、元的 Anteon 股票。而且，如果执行了 “绿鞋”，他将另外获得 1650 万美元。The cash he is pocketing is pretty much pure profit, because Isemans original investments in the shares he sold for $33.80 were made at 40 cents to 88 cents a share. 伊塞曼赚到的这笔钱可以说是净利润，因为他以每股 33.80 美元出售的这批股票其原始成本仅在每股 40 到 88 美分之间。Iseman heads a firm called Ca
24、xton-Iseman Capital, which also controls a chain of all-you-can-eat cafeterias called Buffets Inc. and Vitality Beverages Inc., which bottles private-label orange juice and other beverages. 伊塞曼掌控着一家名叫“卡克斯顿伊塞曼资金”的公司，这家公司还控制着一个名叫“巴非特”的自助餐连锁企业以及一家“活力”饮料公司，后者专门罐装代加工澄汁和其它饮料。In 1996, Iseman bought a local
25、 defense contractor called Ogden Professional Services for $47.5 million. Ogden morphed into Anteon and along the way acquired several other firms that do business with the Pentagon. 1996 年，伊塞曼以 4750 万美元的价格买下一家名为 “奥格登专业服务”的当地军工企业，后者演变成今天的 Anteon，依此方式，又获得其它一些与五星大楼作生意的公司。These days investors are buying stock in Pentagon contractors the way they were gobbling up high-tech companies a few years back. And just as happened with high-tech, entrepreneurs and insiders are cashing in big time. 这段时期，投资者正在买进五角大楼承包商的股票，就象几年前他们追捧高科技公司股票一样。与此同时，如同当时高科技股票的境遇，内幕交易者目前正在大肆抛售。
