1、1外文翻译原文TITLESTUDYONCHINASDOMESTICTOURISMCONSUMPTIONBASEDONECONOMETRICMODELMATERIALSOURCECOLLEGEOFECONOMICSANDMANAGEMENT,NANJINGUNIVERSITYOFAERONAUTICSANDASTRONAUTICS,PRCHINA,211100AUTHORZHANGYULAN,ZHOUDEQUN,LIXUEMEIABSTRACTTHESTUDYONTHEINFLUENCINGFACTORSANDQUANTITATIVERELATIONSOFDOMESTICTOURISMCONSU
2、MPTIONDTCWHICHISANIMPORTANTASPECTOFEXPANDINGDOMESTICDEMANDUNDOUBTEDLYHASIMPORTANTREALISTICSIGNIFICANCE,ESPECIALLYINTHESITUATIONOFINTERNATIONALFINANCIALCRISISACCORDINGTOTHECHARACTERISTICSOFDTCANDRELATEDDATAIN19902007,ANECONOMETRICMODELISESTABLISHEDBASEDONTHEEXPLANATORYVARIABLESOFGDP,PASSENGERPERSONKI
3、LOMETERSANDRESIDENTSSPARETIMETOMAKEANANALYSISONFACTORSAFFECTINGTHEDTCHELPSTOPROVIDEACERTAINBASISANDPROPOSALSFORTHETOURISMPOLICYMAKINGKEYWORDSDOMESTICTOURISMCONSUMPTION,EXPANDINGDOMESTICDEMAND,ECONOMETRICS1INTRODUCTIONBECAUSEOFTHEIMPACTOFINTERNATIONALFINANCIALCRISIS,CHINASECONOMICSITUATIONTURNEDTOWOR
4、SENINONEYEARINORDERTOPREVENTADRASTICDECLINEINECONOMICGROWTH,GOVERNMENTQUICKLYMAKESTHEPOLICYOFEXPANDINGDOMESTICANDMAINTAININGGROWTHTOPARTIALLYCOUNTERACTTHEIMPACTBROUGHTBYTHERAPIDDECLINEINEXPORTSINRECENTYEARS,ASANEWECONOMICGROWTHPOINT,DTCHASBECOMEANIMPORTANTPARTOFEXPANDINGDOMESTICDEMANDACCORDINGTOTHEF
5、ORECASTOFWORLDTOURISMORGANIZATIONBY2020,THENUMBEROFDOMESTICTOURISTINCHINAWILLREACHL982MILLIONANDTHEDTCWILLREACH304366BILLIONWHICHISALMOSTEQUIVALENTTO87OFTHEGDPSOITISUNDOUBTEDLYGREATSIGNIFICANTTOMAINTAINECONOMICGROWTHTHATQUANTITATIVELYRESEARCHTHEINFLUENCINGFACTORSOFDTCATPRESENT,THERESEARCHONTOURISTCO
6、NSUMPTIONMOSTLYBASEDONQUALITATIVE2ANALYSISYINSHIJIE2003ANALYZEDTHESITUATIONANDPROBLEMSOFCHINASTOURISMCONSUMPTION,SUGGESTEDMEASURESTOPROMOTETHEFUTUREOFCHINASTOURISMCONSUMPTIONGUHUIMIN,WUCHUNLAI2003MADEATHEORETICALANALYSISOFTHEDTCANDITSFEATURESOVERTHELAST20YEARSWHICHISBASEDONTHEEVOLUTIONOFRESIDENTINCO
7、MEANDITSDISTRIBUTIONSTRUCTUREAIMINGATTHESTATUSQUOANDPROBLEMSINDOMESTICTOURISMCONSUMPTIONSTRUCTURE,YOUHUI,TAOZHUOMIN2006ANALYZEDTHEINFLUENCINGFACTORSOFDOMESTICTOURISMCONSUMPTIONSTRUCTUREANDSUGGESTEDOPTIMIZEDRECOMMENDATIONSTANGDAIJIAN2008ANALYZEDTHEFOURMAINCHARACTERISTICSOFTHECHINASDOMESTICTOURISMMARK
8、ETSHOWEDINTHEPROCESSFROMBEGINNINGTOMATURITYHEALSOPOINTEDOUTTHATCHINAHASBECOMETHECOUNTRYWHICHHASTHEWORLDSLARGESTDOMESTICTOURISMMARKETINTHEQUANTITATIVESTUDY,CHU1998ANDSMERA12000FORECASTEDTHEMARKETDEMANDSOFTOURISTDESTINATIONBYEXPONENTIALSMOOTHINGANDANALYZEDSOMEOFTHEINFLUENCINGFACTORSWANGCAIHONG2004ANAL
9、YZEDTHECYCLEFLUCTUATIONOFCHINASINBOUNDTOURISMANDFORECASTEDITSTRENDSBYUSINGTHETIMESERIESDATAWANGYIBING2006ESTIMATEDCONSUMERSTOURISMDEMANDINGOLDENWEEKBYRANDOMUTILITYMODELHEFOUNDTHATINCOMETOURISMCOSTSAREDECISIVEFACTORSTHATIMPACTTOURISMCONSUMPTIONINGOLDENWEEKITCANBESEENFROMLITERATUREREVIEW,THEMAJORITYOF
10、SCHOLARSANALYZETHECHARACTERISTICSANDTRENDSFROMAQUALITATIVEPOINTOFVIEW,ANDQUANTITATIVESTUDYISFEWANDSCATTEREDBASEDONTHERELEVANTDATAFROMTHEYEAR1990TO2007,THISPAPERTRIESTOEXPLOREASMANYFACTORSASPOSSIBLETHATIMPACTDTCAFTERAPPROPRIATEDATAPROCESSINGANDECONOMETRICANALYSIS,AMODELISESTABLISHEDFINALLY,ANEMPIRICA
11、LANALYSISISMADEABOUTTHEFACTORSINMODELCOMBINEDWITHCHINASINCREASEINVESTMENTININFRASTRUCTUREPOLICYANDTHEHOTSOCIALDEBATEONWHETHERRESTORETHEGOLDENWEEKHOLIDAYORNOTITPROVIDESACERTAINRECOMMENDATIONSFORPROGRAMTHEFUTUREDEVELOPMENTOFTOURISM2ESTABLISHTHEMODEL21THEINFLUENCINGFACTORSOFDTCTHEREAREVARIEDFACTORSTHAT
12、INFLUENCETOURISMCONSUMPTION,SUCHASECONOMIC,POLITICAL,SOCIAL,HISTORICAL,CULTURAL,NATURALANDPSYCHOLOGICALFACTORSTHEECONOMICFACTORSPLAYAFUNDAMENTALROLEINTOURISMCONSUMPTIONAMONGTHEMECONOMICFACTORSINCLUDEINCOMELEVELS,PRICELEVELS,THEVOLUMEOFIMPORTANDEXPORTANDEXCHANGERATESETCONTHEOTHERHAND,INTERMSOFTHEPURP
13、OSEOFTRAVEL,ALTHOUGHDIFFERENTPEOPLEHASDIFFERENTCHOICE,SUCHASSIGHTSEEING,VISITINGRELATIVES,RESORT3CASUALANDSOON,THEBASICCONDITIONISSPARETIMEINORDERTOREFLECTTHEPEOPLESTRAVELFREQUENCY,WESELECTPASSENGERPERSONKILOMETERSWHICHISDEFINEDASPASSENGERVOLUMECALCULATEDBYTHENUMBEROFVISITORSACTUALLYDELIVEREDBYVARIO
14、USMEANSOFTRANSPORTATIONANDTHEDELIVERYDISTANCE,ITCANREFLECTTHEPASSENGERTRANSPORTWORKLOADINACERTAINPERIODOFTIMEACCORDINGTOTHEABOVEANALYSIS,WEINITIALLYSELECTGDP,CPI,TOTALRETAILSALESOFSOCIALCONSUMERGOODS,CAPITADISPOSABLEINCOME,THEPASSENGERPERSONKILOMETERSANDRESIDENTSSPARETIMEASINFLUENCINGFACTORSCONSIDER
15、INGTHEMAGNITUDEDIFFERENCEBETWEENTHESEVARIABLESANDSOMEISSUESTHATMAYAPPEARSUCHASMULTIPLELINEAR,WEAPPROPRIATELYPROCESSDATAANDSTEPWISEANALYZEBYECONOMETRICAPPROACH22COLLECTANDPROCESSDATAINORDERTOELIMINATETHEIMPACTOFPRICEFLUCTUATIONSTOMAKETHEDTC,GDP,TOTALRETAILSALESOFCONSUMERGOODSANDCAPITADISPOSABLEINCOME
16、INDIFFERENTYEARSCOMPARABLE,WEUSECPITOADJUSTTHEMTHATIS,THEVARIABLESAREDIVIDEDBYCPI,TAKEGDPFOREXAMPLE,ADJUSTEDGDPISGDP/CPIINORDERTOELIMINATETHEMAGNITUDEDIFFERENCESAMONGDATA,TAKETHEPASSENGERPERSONKILOMETERSLOGARITHMSPARETIMEHISADUMMYVARIABLETOURISMHASBECOMETHETRENDSINCECHINAIMPLEMENTEDTHE“GOLDENWEEK“IN
17、1999DOMESTICTOURISMHASDEVELOPEDRAPIDLYSOHVALUES0BEFORE1999ANDAFTER1423ESTABLISHTHEMODELECONOMETRICSISANECONOMICDETERMINATIONMETHOD,THATIS,COMBINEECONOMICTHEORY,PROBABILITYTHEORYANDMATHEMATICALFORMULASTOSTUDYMATHEMATICALLAWSINTHEACTUALECONOMICACTIVITYPREDICTTHEFUTUREANDMAKEPOLICYTHEECONOMETRICMODELIS
18、ESTABLISHEDVIAECONOMETRICAPPROACH,FORASINGLEEQUATION,THEGENERALFORMASFOLLOWSYA1A2X1A3X3ANXNB,YISDEPENDENTVARIABLE,X1X3XNAREINDEPENDENTVARIABLES,A1A2A3ANAREUNKNOWNPARAMETERS,BISRANDOMERRORECONOMETRICMODELMAINLYRELYONHISTORICALSTATISTICALDATA,ANDUSELEASTSQUAREMETHODITCANBEAPPLIEDAFTERPASSINGECONOMICSI
19、GNIFICANCE,STATISTICALSIGNIFICANCEANDECONOMETRICTESTFORTHEPROCESSEDDATA,WESELECTDTCASTHEEXPLAINEDVARIABLE,THEREMAININGVARIABLESASTHEEXPLANATORYVARIABLESDOMULTIPLELINEARREGRESSIONSVIAEVIEWS,THERESULTASFOLLOWSY5526001998X10055X20393X34337X40524H（1）（278）（070）（043）（073）（265）（058）R20982040，F186912，DW1926
20、ILLUSTRATIONYDTCX1GDPX2TOTALRETAILSALESOFSOCIALCONSUMERGOODSX3CAPITADISPOSABLEINCOMEX4PASSENGERPERSONKILOMETERSHSPARETIMEINTHERESULT,R2ISCLOSETO1UNDERTHE5SIGNIFICANCELEVEL,F186912F0055,12311,THATDEMONSTRATESTHEREGRESSIONEQUATIONISSIGNIFICANTLYLINEAR,THATIS,ATLEASTONECOEFFICIENTISSIGNIFICANTLYNONZERO
21、BUTINTHECOEFFICIENTSSIGNIFICANCETEST,SEVERALABSOLUTEVALUESOFTAREFARLESSTHAN2,THISCONTRADICTSTHEFTESTTHESIGNOFX3ISNEGATIVE,THATIS,THERELATIONBETWEENDTCANDPERCAPITADISPOSABLEINCOMEISNEGATIVECORRELATIONITISEQUIVALENTTOSAYTHATTHEMOREAFFLUENT,THELESSTOURISMCONSUMPTION,THEECONOMICSIGNIFICANCEISOBVIOUSLYUN
22、REASONABLESOMULTICOLLINEARITYEXISTSINTHEEXPLANATORYVARIABLEESTABLISHTHEFINALMODELBYSTEPWISEREGRESSIONY49260020X1380X40655H（2）（28）（502）（276）（223）R20986，F3472DW1893TESTANDFORECASTOFTHEMODEL31ECONOMICSIGNIFICANCETESTFROMFORMULA2WECANSEETHATTHEPOSITIVECORRELATIONBETWEENDTCAND5GDPTOURISMCONSUMPTIONINCREA
23、SES20YUANWHENGDPINCREASES100YUANTHERELATIONBETWEENDTCANDRESIDENTSSPARETIMEISPOSITIVECORRELATIONWHICHISINACCORDANCEWITHTHEGENERALSENSEOFECONOMICS32STATISTICALSIGNIFICANCETESTSTATISTICALSIGNIFICANCETESTGENERALLYINCLUDESGOODNESSOFFITTEST,EQUATIONSSIGNIFICANCETESTFTEST,VARIABLESSIGNIFICANCETESTTTESTR209
24、86THATMEANSTHEREGRESSIONCOEFFICIENTSAREHIGHLYSIGNIFICANT,THEGOODNESSOFFITISGOODUNDERTHE5SIGNIFICANCELEVEL,F3472F005（3,14）311,ITSHOWSTHATTHEREGRESSIONEQUATIONISHIGHLYSIGNIFICANT,THEEXPLANATORYVARIABLESX1,X4,HOVERALLHAVEASIGNIFICANTIMPACTONYTHEMODELPASSESTHESIGNIFICANTTESTTHETVALUEOFREGRESSIONCOEFFICI
25、ENTCONSTANT,X1,X4ANDHARET028,T1502,T2276,T3223UNDERTHE5SIGNIFICANCELEVEL,|T|T0025142145,REJECRTHEORIGINALASSUMPTIONITDEMONSTRATESTHATALLVARIABLESINCLUDINGTHECONSTANTARESIGNIFICANTINTHE95LEVELANDTHESIGNIFICANCETESTISPASSED33ECONOMETRICTEST331THEDWTESTOFAUTOCORRELATIONSERIESWETESTWHETHERAUTOCORRELATIO
26、NEXITSINSERIESORNOTBYDURBINWATSONTESTDW189UNDERTHE1SIGNIFICANCELEVEL,THESAMPLECAPACITYIS18,THENUMBEROFEXPLANATORYVARIABLESIS3,CONSULTTHEDWDISTRIBUTIONTABLED108,DU126,MEETTHECONDITIONDUDW1894DUITDEMONSTRATESTHATFIRSTORDERAUTOCORRELATIONDOESNOTEXISTINSERIES332HETEROSCEDASTICITYTESTWETESTWHETHERRANDOMV
27、ARIABLEISRELATEDTOEXPLANATORYVARIABLESORNOTBYWHITETESTTHEACCOMPANIEDPROBABILITYIS01669,SOWECANTREFUSETHENULLHYPOTHESIS,THATIS,HETEROSCEDASTICITYDOESNTEXITINTHEMODETESTISPASSED333MULTICOLLINEARITYTESTTHETOLERANCEANDVARIANCEINFLATIONFACTOROFTHREEEXPLANATORYVARIABLESAREASFOLLWSTOLERANCEX10321,TOLERANCE
28、X40321,TOLERANCEH0321,VIFX1237,VIFX4237,VIFH237THETOLERANCESHOWSTHATINDEPENDENTINFORMATIONPROVIDEDBYEACHEXPLANATORYVARIABLESACCOUNTFOR321OFTHEIRVARIANCEVARIANCEINFLATIONFACTORMEANSTHATCOLLINEARPROBLEMMAKESTHEVARIANCEOFTHETHREEREGRESSIONCOEFFICIENTSEXPAND237TIMESGENERALLY,THESERIOUSCOLLINEARPROBLEMDO
29、ESNTEXIT34FORECASTOFTHEMODEL6THEMODELSACCURACYANDVARIABLESDEVELOPMENTALTRENDCANBEDIRECTLYSEENFROMMODELSFORECASTTHEFORECASTOFDTCBYEVIEWSASFIGURE1INTHEFIGURE,LONGITUDINALAXISREPRESENTSTHEDTCBILLIONUNITS,THEACTUALLINEREPRESENTSITSPREDICTIVEVALUE,ANDTWOUPPERANDLOWERDOTTEDLINESGIVEITSAPPROXIMATE95CONFIDE
30、NCEINTERVALITCANBESEENFROMTHECHART,THEDEVELOPMENTOFDTCCANBEAPPROXIMATELYDIVIDEDINTOTHREESTAGESFROM1990TO200719901998ISTHEFIRSTSTAGEDOMESTICTOURISMDEVELOPEDSMOOTHLYATTHISSTAGETHESECONDSTAGEIS19992002ATWHICHDOMESTICTOURISMACCELERATEDDEVELOPMENTTHISISMAINLYDUETOCARRYOUTGOLDENWEEKHOLIDAYFROM1999ANDPAYAT
31、TENTIONTOIMPROVETHEQUALITYOFTOURISMSERVICESANDCONSUMPTIONSTRUCTURETHATSTIMULATEDTHERESIDENTSDOMESTICTOURISMDEMANDSPECIALPOINTIN2003WHENSARSEPIDEMICSPREADEDALLOVERTHECOUNTRYITHASSOSERIOUSLYAFFECTEDPEOPLESTRAVELTHATTHEUNDERESTIMATIONOFDOMESTICTOURISMCONSUMPTIONAPPEAREDAFTER2004ISTHETHIRDSTAGEDURINGTHI
32、STIME,ASTHEECONOMICDEVELOPEDANDTOURISTFACILITIESIMPROVED,THEDTCRECOVEREDFASTANDDEVELOPEDRAPIDLYFROMTHEFORECASTTRENDINFIGURE,THEDTCWILLCONTINUETOMAINTAINTHEDEVELOPMENTANDITSSTATUSINTHENATIONALECONOMYWILLBECOMEMOREANDMOREIMPORTANTWITHOUTGREATAFFECTINGEVENTSSUCHASSARSOCCURRED4EMPIRICALANALYSISTHEPURPOS
33、EOFMODELINGISTOSTUDYSTATUSQUOANDPROBLEMSOFCHINASDTC7ITISHELPFULTOPROVIDEREFERENCESFORPLANNINGITSFUTURESOASTOMAKEDTCPLAYAGREATERROLEINTHEEXPANDINGDOMESTICDEMANDTHEEMPIRICALANALYSISOFTHREEFACTORSTHEMODELASFOLLOWS1ITISAPOSITIVECORRELATIONBETWEENDTCANDGDPGDPINCREASES1YUANOFWHICHNEARLY20ISFORTOURISMCONSU
34、MPTIONTHISSHOWSTHATTHESTANDARDOFOURLIVINGISSTILLINTHERELATIVELYLOWLEVEL,BECAUSETOURISMBELONGSTOENJOYMENTANDDEVELOPMENTCONSUMPTIONINCONSUMPTIONAREAACCORDINGTOTHERELEVANTINFORMATIONWHENACOUNTRYSPERCAPITAGDPREACHES30005000,ITWILLENTERTHEEXPLOSIVEGROWTHOFTOURISMCONSUMPTIONATPRESENT,CHINASPERCAPITAGDPHAS
35、REACHED3000ITISEXPECTEDTOBECLOSETO4000ATTHEENDOF“ELEVENTHFIVEYEAR“,WHICHHASTOUCHEDTHELOWLINEOFTOURISMCONSUMPTIONS“EXPLOSIVEGROWTH“DURINGTHISPERIOD,THECONSUMERMARKET,CONSUMPTIONSTRUCTUREANDINDUSTRIALSTRUCTUREWILLCHANGESIGNIFICANTLY,TOURISMDEMANDWILLINCREASELARGELYTOURISMMARKETHASGREATPOTENTIALINORDER
36、TOCULTIVATEPEOPLESCONCEPTOFTOURISMCONSUMPTION,GOVERNMENTDEPARTMENTSSHOULDFORMULATERELEVANTPOLICIES,LAWSANDREGULATIONS,ANDTOURISMMANAGEMENTDEPARTMENTSSHOULDFORMULATEAPPROPRIATEMARKETINGSTRATEGIESTOPROMOTETHETOURISMCONSUMPTION2THEPOSITIVECORRELATIONBETWEENDTCANDPASSENGERPERSONKILOMETERSWHATTHEPASSENGE
37、RPERSONKILOMETERSINCREASEMEANSTHATRESIDENTSTOURISMDESIREISINEXPANSIONWITHTHEIMPROVEMENTOFMATERIALLIVINGSTANDARD,ITISINEVITABLEFORPEOPLETOREQUESTTOIMPROVETHEIROWNSPIRITLEVEL,OPTIMIZETHECONSUMPTIONSTRUCTUREOFITSOWN,ENGELSCOEFFICIENTISINDOWNWARDTREND,ONEOFTHEIMPORTANTPOINTISTHATTOURISMCONSUMPTIONISRISI
38、NGTHEINCREASEOFTHEPASSENGERPERSONKILOMETERSINDICATESTHATPEOPLESCOMMUNICATIONANDOPENNESSAREMOREACTIVE,ITISHELPFULTOPROMOTETHEGROWTHOFDTCTHEREFORE,INORDERTOSTIMULATEDTC,WESHOULDINCREASEINVESTMENTINTRANSPORTINFRASTRUCTURE,ESPECIALLYHIGHERSECURITYRAILWAYANDMOREEFFICIENTAVIATIONTOMAKETRAVELMORECONVENIENT
39、3ITCANBESEENTHEPOSITIVECORRELATIONBETWEENDTCANDRESIDENTSSPARETIMEINTHEMODELTHELONGERVACATIONIS,THEMORECOMBINATIONSANDCHOICESOFTOURISTROUTE,PEOPLESTOURISMWILLINGNESSISMORESTRONGLYITALSOCANINCREASETHESHOPPINGANDOTHERCONSUMPTIONATTHESAMETIME,ESPECIALLYINTHECURRENTTODEALWITHFINANCIALCRISISITISANIMPORTAN
40、TROLEINMAINTAININGECONOMICDEVELOPMENTBUTONTHEOTHERHAND,CONSIDERINGTHATINTHEGOLDENWEEK,THEHIGHVALUEADDEDINDUSTRYSUCHASSTOCKMARKET,EXHIBITIONWILLBESUSPENDEDWHICHWILLRESULTINCERTAININDUSTRYLOSSTHEREFORE,FORPROVISIONSOFTHEVACATIONSLENGTH,POLICY8MAKERSSHOULDCONSIDERALLASPECTSOFSOCIOECONOMIC5CONCLUSIONDTC
41、ISBECOMINGMOREANDMOREIMPORTANTINTHENATIONALECONOMYINTHECURRENTINTERNATIONALFINANCIALCRISISIMPACTSONCHINASECONOMIC,ITPLAYSASIGNIFICANTROLEINSTIMULATINGDOMESTICDEMANDANDMAINTAININGECONOMICGROWTHINTHISPAPER,THEMODELCANBETTERREFLECTTHEACTUALSITUATIONOFCHINASDTCTHROUGHTHEEMPIRICALANALYSISOFTHEINFLUENCING
42、FACTORS,ITCANPROVIDEREFERENCEANDBASISFORPLANNINGTHETOURISMSFUTUREDEVELOPMENT译文标题基于计量经济模型的中国国内旅游消费研究资料来源COLLEGEOFECONOMICSANDMANAGEMENT,NANJINGUNIVERSITYOFAERONAUTICSANDASTRONAUTICS,PRCHINA,211100作者ZHANGYULAN,ZHOUDEQUN,LIXUEMEI摘要关于国内旅游消费（DTC）影响因素和定量关系的研究对扩大国内需求具有非常重要的现实意义，特别是在国际金融危机环境下。我们根据国内旅游消费的特点和
43、1990年到2007年的有关资料，以GDP波动、客运周转量和公民休闲时间为基础建立了一个计量经济模型。关键词国内旅游消费，拉动内需，计量经济1内容简介受全球金融风暴的影响，中国经济环境在一年内急转直下。为了遏止经济的下滑，政府迅速制定了一系列拉动内需，保持经济增长的政策以部分抵消出口量下降所造成的影响。近年来，国内旅游消费作为一个新的经济增长点，成为了扩大内需战略的一个重要组成部分。根据世界旅游组织的预测，到2020年，中国国内旅游人数将达到198200人次，国内旅游消费将达到304366亿元，该数字占国内生产总值的87。因此，研究国内旅游消费对于保持经济增长有着十分重大的意义。目前人们对旅游
44、消费的研究主要停留在旅游质量分析上。殷世杰（2003）分析了中国旅游业的现状和存在的问题，他提出应当促进中国未来旅游消费。顾慧明，吴春来（2003）基于民众收入情况和社会资源分配情况对过去20年中中国旅游消费作出了理论分析。尤辉，陶卓敏（2006）以规范和完善国内旅游消费框架为目标，分析了国内旅游消费的模式并提出了一系列积极的建议。唐戴健（2008）分析了中国国内旅游消费在成型过程中的四个主要特征。同时他9指出中国已成为国内旅游市场最大的国家。CHU（1998）和SMERAL（2000）预测了旅游目的地的市场走向并对其中一些影响因素进行了分析。王彩虹（2004）分析了国内市场的波动并利用相关资
45、料预测了市场走向。王一兵（2006）利用随机公用模型估测了在黄金周内旅游客户的需求。从上述文献资料中可以看出，大部分学者仅仅从定性的角度分析了旅游市场的特点和其趋势，而缺乏对旅游业定量的研究。本文通过1990年至2007年间相关数据资料的分析，尝试寻找国内旅游消费的影响因素。通过对相关数据的研究和计量分析，我们建立了一个模型。本文最后将给出基于调查研究的分析报告，阐述了该模型中出现的与中国加大基础设施投资相关的影响因素，并对是否应当恢复“黄金周”给出了相应的建议。本文对旅游业的发展规划给出了一些具体的建议。2建立模型21DTC的影响因素影响旅游消费的因素有很多，诸如经济，政治，社会，历史，文化
46、，自然条件，精神文化等等，其中经济是基础。经济因素包括收入水平，物价水平，进出口总量和货币汇率等。从另一个角度讲，虽然旅游目的不尽相同，不同的人有不同的想法，比如看风景，走亲戚或者放松身心等，但最基本的条件都是需要有空余时间。为了了解人们的出游频率，我们选择了客运周转量进行分析，客运周转量由客运人数和旅程长短构成，可以反映出某个特定阶段的交通运输负荷。根据以上分析，我们选择了GDP，CPI，零售业销售总值，人均可支配收入，客运周转量和居民空闲时间作为影响因素进行研究。考虑到这些变量之间有着巨大的差别以及影响因素多元化等问题，我们采取了对数据进行计量分析的研究方法。22数据采集和处理为了消除物价
47、的影响从而让DTC，GDP，零售额和人均可支配收入这几大因素在不同的年份具有可比性，我们利用CPI进行调整和整合。具体来说，我们利用CPI对每个变量进行区分，举例说，GDP可以调整成GDP/，CPI。为了消除数据中存在的巨大差异，可以对客运周转量数值取对。空闲时间（H）可以看作0或者1。自从中国在1999年开始实行“黄金周”规划以来，国内旅游进入了迅速发展的时期，这时H值就从0变成了1。1023模型的建立计量经济是衡量经济的一种有效手段，即结合经济理论，可能性分析和数学公式，在现实经济活动中研究其规律，从而预测未来的前景，制定方针政策。该计量模型根据计量学建立，比如对于一次方程，其通式为YA1
48、A2X1A3X3ANXNB，其中Y为从变量，X1X3XN为独立变量，而A1A2A3AN为未知常数，B为误差调整。我们根据现有统计学数据，以最小二乘法为计算方法建立了该计量经济模型。如该模型通过经济学意义，统计学意义和计量经济的测试则将被采用。Y5526001998X10055X20393X34337X40524H（1）（278）（070）（043）（073）（265）（058）R20982040，F186912，DW1926其中Y为DTC，X1为GDP，X2为社会零售业销售额，X3为人均可支配收入，X4为客运周转量，H为空余时间。运算结果是，R2接近1，而在5显著性极限之下，F186912F0
49、05（5，12）311。这表示衰退方程是线性的，即至少有一个相应的变量不为零。而在相关性测试中，T存在几个远小于2的绝对值，这就与F的测试结果相悖。而X3所对应的值是负的，即DTC与人均可支配收入之间为负相关。这等于说人们越是手头富余，旅游消费就越少，这显然是不合理的。因此，所有这些变量之间都存在着多边关系。11将最终模型进行递减，得Y49260020X1380X40655H（2）（28）（502）（276）（223）R20。986，F3472DW1893模型测试与预测31经济学测试从公式（2）中我们可以看出DTC和GDP呈正相关。当GDP增加100元时旅游消费增加20元。同时，正如宏观经济规律，DTC与人们的空余时间也呈正相关。32统计学测试统计学测试主要包括符合度，平衡测试（F测试）和变量测试。R20986表示符合程度较高。如果在5显著极限以下且F3472F0053,14311，则表示下降曲线的符合程度也较高，变量X1,X4,H均对于Y有直接影响。综上，该模型通过统计学测试。在X1X4H等系数为恒定值时T所对应的值为T0502,T2276,T3223。在5显著极限之下，|T|T0025142145，该结果与初始预计相悖。这表示所有变量，包括常数，
