1、The Energy Policy Act of 2005 2005 年能源政策法令,Susan F. Tierney, Ph.D.China Sustainable Energy Program 8th Senior Policy Advisory Committee (PAC) MeetingBeijing, P.R. China November 18, 2005 中国可持续能源项目高级政策顾问委员会第八次会议中国北京 2005 年 11 月 18 日,Overview概要,Key factors in U.S. energy politics/policyWhats in the En
2、ergy Policy Act of 2005?Whats not in it?Does it position us for 21th Century needs?,美国能源政治/政策的要素2005 年能源政策法令包含哪些内容？2005 年能源政策法令未包含哪些内容？2005 年能源政策法令能否满足 21 世纪的需求？,Key Factors in U.S. Energy Politics and Policy 美国能源政治和政策的要素,U.S. Energy Policy: A patchwork quilt美国能源政策：综合集成,Energy “policy” is made by co
3、untless decision makers:In Washington, in the 50 statesIn large and small companiesBy consumersOther forces (for example, the economy, OPEC, China, the weather, technology)Energy policies often reflects:Short-term conditions and politicsGeopolitics of energy resources in U.S. (producer versus consum
4、er regions),能源“政策”是由无数决策者共同制订的，他们分别来自于：华盛顿和 50 个州大型和小型企业消费者其他力量（例如：经济、OPEC、中国、气候、技术） 能源政策通常可以反映：短期条件和政治资源美国的能源地缘政治（生产商与消费者所在的地区）,Globalization and market realities全球化与市场现实状况,U.S. energy policy reflects the realities of:美国能源政策可以反映以下现实情况：Energy prices set in international markets 能源价格由国际市场确定Pressure f
5、rom growing demand in other countries 其他国家/地区需求不断增加产生的压力Supplies concentrated in particular regions 供应集中在某些地区Energy impacts cross national boundaries 能源影响超出国界范围,CO2 二氧化碳NOx 氮氧化物SO2 二氧化硫,Oil 石油Gas (LNG) 天然气Coal 煤炭,World Oil Consumption and Production*, 2002, 2010, and 2025 2002 年、2010 年和 2025 年全球石油消耗
6、量和产量*,Consumption消耗量,Production产量,International Energy Outlook 2005; http:/www.eia.doe.gov/neic/speeches/caruso091405.pptInternational Energy Outlook 2005; http:/www.eia.doe.gov/neic/speeches/caruso091405.ppt,78.2,94.6,119.2,78.1,94.3,118.9,OPEC,Transitional Economies转型经济,Other其他,Mature Market Econo
7、mies成熟的市场经济,Other其他,Emerging Asia崛起的亚洲,Sellers Market卖方市场,Million barrels/day百万桶/天,Imported Crude Oil Prices: Nominal, Real进口原油价格：现时价格与不变价格,EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook, September 2005 EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook，2005 年 9 月,0,10,20,30,40,50,60,70,80,90,100,Jan-80,Jan-82,Jan-84,Jan-86,Jan-88,Jan
8、-90,Jan-92,Jan-94,Jan-96,Jan-98,Jan-00,Jan-02,Jan-04,Jan-06,Dollars per Barrel美元/桶,Real (2005=1) Price,Nominal,Price,Projections,Rising Natural Gas Demand (for Power); Gas Prices Roaring Upward天然气需求不断增加（用于发电）；天然气价格激增,Latest Spot Prices: Forecast Jan 06: $12最新现货价格： 预测 2006 年 1 月：约 12 美元,*,EIA, Annual
9、 Energy Outlook, 2005, Page 97; EIA, Medium Recovery case, Short-Term Energy Outlook, 9-7-05,Growing coal use expected worldwide全球煤炭使用量增长情况预测,U.S. Energy Information Administration, International Energy Outlook (2004).,(primarily for electricity)（主要用于发电）,CO2 Emissions by Country: Total emissions sin
10、ce 1950 世界各国二氧化碳排放量：1950 年至今的总排放量,Graphic from: Michael Glantz, “What Makes Good Climates Go Bad? and “Why Care?” USAEE/IAEE Meeting, 9-19-05.Billons of tons of carbon dioxide emissions图片来源：Michael Glantz, “What Makes Good Climates Go Bad? and “Why Care?” USAEE/IAEE Meeting, 9-19-05.数十亿吨的二氧化碳排放量,Sup
11、ply demand balance:供需平衡：,Oil:Huge demand pressure (e.g., U.S., China, India)Incremental production and reserves: OPECRefining: extremely tight capacity in U.S.Gas:N. American demand pressure (to produce power)Declining N. American productionImproving economics of LNGCoal:Largest domestic fuel resour
12、ceRising demand, rising costsSignificant environmental impacts (CO2),石油：巨大的需求压力（例如：美国、中国、印度）增加的产量与储量：OPEC炼油：美国炼油能力吃紧天然气：北美需求压力（发电）北美产量不断下降LNG 的经济价值不断提高煤炭：最大的国内燃料资源需求量与成本不断增加严重影响环境（二氧化碳）,Energy Policy Act of 05: Whats in It2005 年能源政策法令： 包含哪些内容,Energy Policy Act Overview能源政策法令 概要,An economic stimulus
13、package for energyCongressional passage in July 2005Signed by President Bush in August 20051st comprehensive energy Act in 13 yearsComplex law: 1725 pages$14.6 billion U.S. budget estimateSupport from “producer” states; less support from “consumer” statesEnacted one month before Hurricane Katrina,一整
14、套能源经济刺激方案2005 年 1 月由国会通过2005 年 8 月由布什总统签署13 年以来美国出台的第一个综合性能源法令该法令面面俱到：1725 页 146 亿美元 美国预算估计获得能源“产出州”的广泛支持；而能源“消耗州”的支持率非常低在卡特里娜飓风发生前的一个月颁布,The Energy Policy Act:Tax code provisions $14.6 billion能源政策法令：税法条例 146 亿美元,Changes depreciation, amortization变更折旧、分期偿还Tax credits for investments & production投资与生
15、产减税优惠Tax credits for purchase购买减税优惠,Gas pipelines 天然气管道Electric transmission lines 输电线路Geological exploration/drilling 地质勘探/开采Refinery investments 炼油厂投资Advanced nuclear power plants 先进的核电站Renewable power plants 可再生发电厂Efficient appliance manufacturers 节能型设备制造商Bio-diesel, ethanol producers生化柴油、乙醇生产商Cl
16、ean coal power plants 环保型燃煤发电厂Efficient appliances 节能型家用电器 Fuel cells, micro-turbines 燃料电池、微型燃气轮机Purchases of hybrids 购买混合型动力汽车,The Energy Policy Act An Energy Stimulus Package能源政策法令 一整套能源刺激方案,Incentives for investment:Risk mitigation, e.g.,Nuclear accident liability insuranceInsurance to cover perm
17、itting/delays for first 6 new nuclear plantsLoan guarantees for “clean”“innovative technologies” (IGCC, nuclear, wind, biomass)Budget authority for energy R&D,刺激投资：降低风险，例如：核事故责任险为前六个新建核电站的审批和延期提供保险“清洁”项目贷款担保“创新技术”（ IGCC 、核能、风能、生物能）能源研发预算授权,The Energy Policy Act: Reduced barriers to resource developm
18、ent能源政策法令：减少资源开发障碍,Lack of information: Oil/gas in 200 mile off shore watersPermitting issues:Streamlining permitting for drilling on federal landsClarifying federal jurisdiction (e.g., LNG approvals)Priority “critical national” energy facilities and corridorsLower fees: reduced royalties for drilli
19、ng on U.S. land,缺乏信息：石油/天然气储藏在 200 英里之外的近海水域审批问题：简化在联邦政府的土地上进行开采的审批程序明确联邦权限（例如：LNG 审批）“关键的国家级”能源设施和能源走廊优先考虑降低费用：降低在美国国土上进行开采的矿区使用费,The Energy Policy Act: Purchase requirements and standards能源政策法令：购买规定和标准,Renewable motor vehicle fuel RPS (biofuels) 7.5 billion gallons/year by 2012Federal agency renew
20、able electric standardRPS (wind, biomass, solar)Appliance efficiency standards(15 appliances),可再生机动车燃料RPS配额制（生化燃料） 截至 2012 年为 75 亿加仑/年联邦署可再生电能标准RPS（风能、生物能、太阳能）设备节能标准（15 种设备）,The Energy Policy Act: Electric supply provisions 能源政策法令：供电条例,New Electric Reliability OrganizationNew “national interest tran
21、smission corridors” Requires new incentives for transmission investment,新的电力可靠性组织 新的“国家利益输电走廊” 需要新的刺激措施鼓励对输电进行投资,The Energy Policy Act : Does it get us where we need to go?能源政策法令：能否实现我们的目标?,Energy Policy Act observations能源政策法令 评论,Congress gave President Bush the law he wanted The bill has elements f
22、or producers and consumers“Clean energy” provisions depend upon future annual national budgets making them relatively fragile,= Majority of states delegation voted AGAINST 该州大多数代表投反对票= Majority of states delegation voted FOR 该州大多数代表投赞成票= Split delegation (equally # voted FOR and AGAINST) 投反对票和投赞成票的代
23、表相等（反对票与赞成票票数相同）,http:/www.congress.org/congressorg/issues/votes/?votenum=213&chamber=S&congress=1091,国会同意布什总统签署该法案该法案中有关于生产商与消费者的规定“清洁型能源”条例取决于今后的国家年度预算 使得这些条例的约束力相对较弱,Whats not in the new law? 1新法案中未包含哪些内容？- 1,Inadequate reduction of oil use in carsEthanol requirement is in the lawBut no change in
24、 CAF standards (same for decades)Inadequate long term support for renewable motor fuels (cellulosic biomass),2.3 million barrels/day*230 万桶/天*,* Estimate quoted in Bush/Cheney National Energy Policy, 5/2001, p. 5-9.,汽车耗油量未明显降低该法案中包含关于乙醇的规定但 CAF 燃油经济性标准未发生任何变化（几十年一直未变）对可再生机动车燃料缺乏长期支持（纤维质生物能）,Whats no
25、t in the new law? 2新法令中未包含哪些内容？- 2,No mandatory climate change control policyBut the Senate adopted the following resolution:,“before the end of the first session of the 109th Congress, Congress should enact a comprehensive and effective national program of mandatory, market-based limits on emission
26、s of greenhouse gases that slow, stop, and reverse the growth of such emissions at a range and in a manner that - (1) will not significantly harms the United States economy; and (2) will encourage comparable action by other nations that are major trading partners and key contributors to global emiss
27、ions.”“在 109 届国会第一次会议闭幕之前，国会应颁布一项综合性、强制性、全国性的有效计划，以根据市场情况在一定范围内降低、停止温室气体排放增长速度，甚至温室气体排放呈负增长，但前提条件是：(1) 不会严重影响美国经济；并 (2) 鼓励其他主要贸易国以及温室气体排放大国采取有力的措施。”,没有强制性气候变化控制政策但参议院通过了以下决议：,Votes on the Senate Resolution 对参议院决议的投票情况,EIA, US Coal Reserves: 1997 Update, 1999,Supporting: 53支持： 53 票Opposing: 44反对：44 票
28、Not voting: 3弃权：3 票,Coal regions产煤区,“clean power states”“清洁型发电州”,Lessons from the Act该法令的意义,Act has incentives for diverse types of investment in energy technologies and developments:Tax credits, tax accounting changesLoan guarantees, other risk insuranceGovernment grantsExpect additional oil and ga
29、s supplies in long runExpect more infrastructure investment,该法案可刺激对能源技术和开发进行多渠道投资：减税优惠、税务会计变更贷款担保、其他风险保险政府补助 预期在较长的一段时间内会有其他石油与天然气供应渠道预期会进行更多基础设施投资,Lessons from the Act该法令的意义,U.S. finds it easier to use carrots than sticksNeed to better control oil use in motor vehiclesNeed to control greenhouse gas
30、 emissionsTechnological opportunity for clean energy technologies, but it depends upon:Tough decisions in annual Congressional budgetsFollow-through by agenciesPost-Katrina: reveals gaps in the ActConsumers buying smaller vehicles, driving less; U.S. manufacturers feeling the pinchGrowing interest in climate change,美国会发现胡萝卜政策比大棒政策更容易实施需要更好地控制机动车的耗油量需要控制温室气体排放 为清洁型能源技术提供了机会，但取决于以下条件：国会年度预算中的艰难决策各部门的贯彻情况卡特里娜飓风发生之后：反映了该法令的差距消费者购买的车辆越来越小，驾驶次数越来越少；美国制造商越来越感受到压力对气候变化更加关注,
