1、How East Asians View Democracy,First systematic comparative survey of attitudes and values toward politics, governance, democracy and reform, and citizens political actions in East AsiaStandardized survey instruments designed around a common research frameworkFederated country-team structure, coordi
2、nated by Yun-han Chu, National Taiwan University, with international steering committeeFunded by Taiwan Ministry of Education, Henry Luce Foundation, World Bank, foundations in some of the countries, and other sourcesAllows for nested comparisons: three Chinese societies, five “Confucian” societies,
3、 developed/developing, democratic/non-democratic; within-society educational, gender, occupational, ethnic, religious, and other groupsLater changed its name to Asian Barometer Surveys. Web address: www.asianbarometer.org,East Asia BarometerA Comparative Survey of Democratization and Value Change, 2
4、001-2003,Table 1.2a Survey Schedules and Sample Sizes of First Wave EAB,Data release form,Table 1.2b Survey Schedules and Sample Sizes of Second Wave AB,Regime Support and Democratic Support in Asia(% of total sample expressing support),Notes:Source: 2006 Asian Barometer Surveys, preliminary 7-natio
5、n dataset as of July 2007 Rejects authoritarian alternatives=respondent rejects at least half of the authoritarian alternatives on which s/he expresses an opinion, out of a possible total of three; Commitment to democracy=combined measure of five positive attitudes toward democracy; Trusts governmen
6、t institutions=summed trust scores for five government institutions is more positive than negative. Bold (red) numbers are at or above the average for that row, nonbold (green) numbers below the average,Table 1.3 Meaning of Democracy (% of total sample mentioning this meaning),Table 1.13 Commitment
7、to Rule of Law(% of respondents),Table 1.8 Support for Democracy(% of respondents),Table 1.9 Authoritarian Detachment(% of respondents),Democratic Values in East Asia(% giving pro-democratic answer),Table 1.7 Perceived Change from Past to Present Regime (% of valid sample mentioning this meaning),Di
8、fference in Perceived Performance of Current and Past Regimes(% perceiving improvement minus percent perceiving worsening),Table 10.3 Impact of Regime Policy Performance on Support for Democracy(Standardized regression coefficient),Traditional Values in East Asia(% agree or strongly agree),First and
9、 Second Wave Comparison,Satisfaction with the way democracy works (% satisfied),Democracy is always preferable(% Agree),We should get rid of parliament and elections and have a strong leader decide things(% Strongly or somewhat disagree),Authoritarian detachment(% Oppose all three non-democratic alt
10、ernatives except expert rule),Democracy can solve the problem(% Positive response),Whatever its faults may be, our form of government is still the best for us(% Agree),Second Wave,Q103. People have the power to change a government they dont like,Q113. How often do national governments abide by the l
11、aw?,Q43. On the whole, how would you rate the freeness and fairness of the last national election?,Q110. People are free to speak what they think without fear,Q111. People can join any organization they like,Q116. How well do you think the government responds to what people want?,Q45-47. Access to P
12、ublic Services,Easy,Difficult,Easy,Easy,Easy,Easy,Easy,Easy,Easy,Difficult,Difficult,Difficult,Difficult,Difficult,Difficult,Difficult,Dont walk away after democratic transition, but invest in the consolidation of new democracies at risk.Consolidation is not only about elections and civil society, b
13、ut even more about rule of law, accountability, and governance the “quality of democracy.”Promoting the “d” word is less valuable than promoting deeper democratic values.Longterm modernization promotes democratic values, but slowly and unevenly.The modernization process that most changes values is e
14、ducation.Take authoritarian governments at their word in their democratic claims, and work with the publics rising expectations for democracy.,Policy implications,Institutionalizing African Democracy:Formal or Informal?Michael Bratton, Michigan State University,Research Questions What are the trends
15、 over time in popular support for democracy? Is nostalgia for authoritarian rule growing or shrinking? Over time, are Africans becoming more or less satisfied with the quality of democracy delivered by their leaders? How much democracy do they think they have? How do they arrive at their attitudes t
16、o democracy? With reference to formal or informal institutions? Which is more important?If informal institutions remain important to African politics, do they help or harm democracy?,The AfrobarometerA comparative series of public attitude surveys on democracy, markets and civil society. Run by Idas
17、a (South Africa), CDD (Ghana) and MSU, plus national partners. Based on: * national probability samples (1200-3600) representing all adult citizens * margin of sampling error of +/- 3% at 95 % confidence * face-to-face interviews by trained interviewers in language of choice * response rates averagi
18、ng above 80% * standard questionnaire with identical or functionally equivalent items DataComparisons of observed values across countries, and over time, between: * Afrobarometer Round 1 (12 countries), 1999-2001 (21,000+ cases) * Afrobarometer Round 2 (15 countries), 2002-2003 (23,000+ cases) * Afr
19、obarometer Round 3 (18 countries), 2005-2006 (25,000+ cases),Back to Afrobarometer Countries,Figure 2: Coverage of Afrobarometer Surveys, 1999-2006,“Which of these three statements is closest to your own opinion? Democracy is preferable to any other kind of government; In some circumstances a non-de
20、mocratic government can be preferable; For someone like me, it doesnt matter what form of government we have”,“There are many ways to govern a country. Would you disapprove or approve of the following alternative:The army comes in to govern the country?”,“There are many ways to govern a country. Wou
21、ld you disapprove or approve of the following alternative:Only one political party is allowed to stand for election and hold office?”,Percentage approving democracy or rejecting other political regimes,Percentage saying that “democracy is preferable to any other form of government.”2005 figure for T
22、anzania includes 59 percent “dont know/dont understand.”,*,Percentage approving democracy or rejecting other political regimes,Percentages (a) satisfied with “the way democracy works” (b) perceiving that country has “full” or “almost full” democracy and (c) thinking country will remain a democracy i
23、n the future,Percentage “satisfied” or “very satisfied” with “the way democracy works in (this country).”* The estimate for Ghana in 2002 is based on 15 percent “dont knows” (imputed from R1 and R3 distributions),*,“Overall, how satisfied are you with the way democracy works in (your country)?”,Figu
24、re 10: Satisfaction with Democracy:18 African Countries, 2005,Percentages (a) satisfied with “the way democracy works” (b) perceiving that country has “full” or “almost full” democracy and (c) thinking country will remain a democracy in the future,Multiple Regression (OLS),a,1.319,.027,.000,-.093,.0
25、08,-.083,.000,-.057,.009,-.049,.000,.002,.000,.045,.000,.062,.011,.045,.000,.052,.002,.185,.000,(Constant),Gender (Female),Habitat (Rural),Age,Religion (Muslim),Education,Model,1,B,Std. Error,Unstandardized,Coefficients,Beta,Standardized,Coefficients,Sig.,Figure 13: Explaining Popular Demand for Dem
26、ocracy:Selected Social Influences,Model Summary,.217,.047,.047,.54511,R,R Square,Adjusted,R Square,Std. Error of,the Estimate,The dependent variable (demand for democracy) is an average index of support for democracy and rejection of three authoritarian alternatives (military, one-party and one-man
27、rule). It measures the depth of popular commitments to a democratic regime.,Multiple Regression (OLS),1.318,.021,63.233,.000,.356,.007,.427,49.247,.000,.200,.007,.242,27.910,.000,(Constant),Free and Fair Elections,Trust in the President,Model,1,B,Std. Error,Unstandardized,Coefficients,Beta,Standardi
28、zed,Coefficients,t,Sig.,Model Summary,.575,a,.330,.330,.767,Model,1,R,R Square,Adjusted,R Square,Std. Error of,the Estimate,Dependent Variable: EXTENT OF DEMOCRACY,a.,Figure 14: Explaining the Perceived Extent of Democracy:Formal Institutions versus Informal Ties, 2005,Source: Individual-level data,
29、 Afrobarometer Round 3 for original 12 Afrobarometer countries(n = 17,917 unweighted, 14,400 weighted)Adjusted R square for all 18 R3 countries = .287 (Beta = .396 for free and fair elections. Beta = .239 for trust in president),Percentage share of explained variance in extent of democracy accounted
30、 for by each predictor 12 original Afrobarometer countries (Round 1, N = 21,531; Round 3, N = 17,917) “In your opinion, how much of a democracy is (your country) today?”,Percentage approving democratic side of forced choice statements (see text for wordings),Percentage approving democratic side of f
31、orced choice statements (see text for wordings),Clientelism: Average construct of agreement with two items:“In our country these days, we should show more respect for authority.” “Once in office, leaders are obliged to help their home community”Corruption: “How many of the following people do you th
32、ink are involved in corruption? Members of parliament/National assembly deputies? Elected local government councilors?Presidentialism: How much do you trust each of the following? The President?,Figure 19: Explaining the Extent of Democracy:Comparing Formal and Informal Institutions, 2005,Multiple R
33、egression (OLS),a,2.627,.038,69.910,.000,.021,.006,.033,3.455,.001,-.028,.005,-.045,-5.366,.000,.081,.006,.121,12.481,.000,-.064,.006,-.097,-10.947,.000,027,.006,.033,-4.149,.000,-.131,.009,-.121,-14.126,.000,.203,.007,.255,28.679,.000,(Constant),FORMAL INSTITUTIONS,Elections that remove leaders,Pea
34、ceful multiparty competition,A representative legislature,President subject to rule of law,INFORMAL INSTITUTIONS,Clientelism,Corruption,Trust in the President,Model,1,B,Std. Error,Unstandardized,Coefficients,Beta,Standardized,Coefficients,t,Sig.,Dependent Variable: EXTENT OF DEMOCRACY,a.,Model Summa
35、ry,.433,.187,.187,.798,Model,1,R,R Square,Adjusted,R Square,Std. Error of,the Estimate,Source: Individual-level data, Afrobarometer Round 3 (n = 25,397 unweighted, 21,600 weighted, across 18 countries),www.afrobarometer.org,Jordan: Center for Strategic StudiesPalestine: Center for Policy and Survey
36、ResearchMorocco: Hassan II University-MohammadiaAlgeria: University of AlgiersKuwait: Kuwait UniversityYemen: Yemen Interactions Lebanon: Statistics LebanonUnited States: University of Michigan (PI), Princeton University (co-PI),The Arab Barometer Team,2006 Arab Human Development Report: Deficit of
37、Freedom. “Viewed from the perspective of freedom and good governance, it is difficult to describe subsequent events in the Arab arena as the kind of widespread, thorough-going reform for which the report calleddespite the growing winds of protest against governments and the intensifying demands for
38、radical reform around the Arab world.”,Thinking about Governance and Democracy in the Arab World,Support for Democracy Has Consistently Been High in All Muslim Arab Countries Surveyed,Support for Democracy Is High among More as well as Less Religious Persons,Why Does the Arab World Lag Behind? What
39、Do Ordinary Citizens Think,Do People Think the is U.S. Helping?To What Extent Do You Agree or Disagree with the Following Statement?“U.S. Democracy Promotion Policies toward Arab Countries Are Good”,Understanding and Support of Democracy Are Often Instrumental,People Are Divided about the Role of Re
40、ligion in Government To What Extent Do you Agree or Disagree with the Following Statement?“Religious Practice Is a Private Matter and Should Be Separated from Socio-Political Life”,Disagreement about the Political Role of Islam Is Equally Pronounced among People Who Do and Do Not Favor Democracy,Binary Logistic Regression Models Estimating Support for Secularism among Persons Who Support Democracy,Presentation to Press and Others in Morocco,
