1、国家发展和改革委员会能源研究所,节能型社会和可持续发展 An Energy-Conserving Society and Sustainable Development,周大地能源研究所国家发展改革委员会Zhou DadiEnergy Research InstituteNational Development and Reform Commission,国家发展和改革委员会能源研究所,高能源和资源强度的发展 Energy- and Resource-Intensive Development,GDP增长率加快工业化进程加快，高能耗产业快速发展基础设施建设规模巨大城市化进程加快城乡出现新的消费
2、模式参与全球化进程，出口导向型增长,GDP growth rate acceleratingIndustrialization accelerating, with energy-intensive sectors growing quicklyMassive scale of infrastructure constructionUrbanization process acceleratingNew consumption patterns in cities and rural areasJoining in globalization process; export driven gr
3、owth,国家发展和改革委员会能源研究所,我国能源消费变化情况 Changes in Energy Consumption,国家发展和改革委员会能源研究所,能源供需矛盾仍然严峻 Severe Energy Supply and Demand Imbalance,去年24省市电力短缺，今年有所缓解，但仍有10多个省份出现短缺煤炭超能力生产，恶性事故不断由于价格问题，汽油等出现紧张北京天然气短缺，其他地方也有出现,Severe black outs last year; still some black outs this yearOver-exploitation of coal, result
4、ing in accidentsGasoline shortages due to price problemsNatural gas shortages in Beijing and other places,国家发展和改革委员会能源研究所,对外依存度迅速提高 Dependence on Foreign Energy Rapidly Increasing,我国石油进口量有波动但仍将持续增加石油消费占全球总量中7.7%左右石油进口依存度达到452010年前我国石油消费的一半即将依靠进口，2020年油气的进口依存度还将进一步提高,Oil imports steadily increasing C
5、hina accounts for about 7.7% of world oil consumptionOil import dependency has reached 45%50% of oil consumed in China is imported; from 2010 to 2020 this percentage will increase,国家发展和改革委员会能源研究所,长期性挑战 Long Term Challenge,电力短缺可能在近年得到解决由于能源部门高速扩张去年电力新增装机50.5 Gw，今年超过70 Gw近三年煤炭年增产量2亿吨以上这种趋势难以持续,Electri
6、city shortage can be eliminated in coming yearsRapid expansion of energy sectors50.5 GW of power generators added last year; more than 70 GW this yearCoal output increased by more than 200 million tons each year for the past three yearsTendency is unsustainable,国家发展和改革委员会能源研究所,环境问题严峻 Severe Environm
7、ental Impact,过分倚重煤炭环境污染变得更为严重燃煤排放的二氧化硫大幅增加污染从城市向农村扩展温室气体排放剧增土地、水资源、其他自然资源负荷过重,Heavy dependence on coalEnvironmental pollution becoming more severeSulfur emissions increasingPollution expanding from cities to rural areasGHG emissions significantly increasingLand, water, and natural resources are over
8、loaded,国家发展和改革委员会能源研究所,建设现代化煤炭工业难度很大 Modernizing Chinas Coal Industry is Difficult,96%以上依靠井工开采年产量300万吨以上的大型、特大型矿井产量仅能达到10亿吨以下许多煤矿不能达到现有安全生产条件,More than 96% of coal mines are undergroundModern, large-scale (over 3 million tons each) coal mines contribute only less than 1 billion tons of coalMany mine
9、s do not meet safety standards,国家发展和改革委员会能源研究所,采煤的环境外部性很高煤炭利用数量的进一步增加将面临较大的困难面临能源安全的挑战,建设现代化煤炭工业难度很大 Modernizing Chinas Coal Industry is Difficult,Environmental costs of coal mining are very highCeiling to future coal outputEnergy security challenge,国家发展和改革委员会能源研究所,中央建议要点 Guidelines from CCPs Five-Y
10、ear Plan,“保持经济平稳较快发展”。“更要注重提高增长的质量和效益，加快经济结构的战略性调整“。 明确转变经济增长方式的主要含意：“加快转变经济增长方式。我国土地、淡水、能源、矿产资源和环境状况对经济发展已构成严重制约”。,“Maintain stable and rapid economic growthWhile focusing more on the quality and effectiveness of growth, speed up strategic structural adjustment.” Identified the implications of chan
11、ging economic growth patterns: “the state of land, fresh water, energy, and mineral resources and the environment have already seriously constrained economic growth.”,国家发展和改革委员会能源研究所,“要把节约资源作为基本国策”,“加快建设资源节约型、环境友好型社会”“切实走新型工业化道路，坚持节约发展、清洁发展、安全发展，实现可持续发展”。,中央建议要点 Guidelines from CCPs Five-Year Plan,“
12、Energy conservation should become fundamental national policyAccelerate the building of a energy-conserving, environmentally-friendly society”“Take a new approach to industrialization; insist on developing in an energy-saving, clean, safe, and sustainable way.”,国家发展和改革委员会能源研究所,中央建议要点 Guidelines from
13、 CCPs Five-Year Plan,只提了两个数量目标“十一五”时期经济社会发展的主要目标是：”在优化结构、提高效益和降低消耗的基础上，实现二一年人均国内生产总值比二年翻一番；资源利用效率显著提高，单位国内生产总值能源消耗比“十五”期末降低20左右，生态环境恶化趋势基本遏制,Only 2 numerical targets for economic and social development:By optimizing economic structure, improving economic returns, and decreasing resource intensity, d
14、ouble per capita GDP from 2000 to 2010.Improve resource utilization efficiency; decrease energy intensity per unit GDP by 20%.Reverse trends of environmental destruction,国家发展和改革委员会能源研究所,中央建议影响深远 CCP Guidelines to have Far-reaching Effects,直接指导国家和各地的十一五规划方向已经推动各地十一五规划的重新思考和修改需要对十一五发展成绩和问题进行反思十一五不能延续现
15、在的增长方式,Directly guide national and local development plansAlready encouraged the review and adjustment of national and local plansRe-evaluate progress made during current five-year periodCurrent growth pattern must be adjusted,国家发展和改革委员会能源研究所,建设节约型社会 Building a Resource-Efficient Society,节能优先不是单纯技术问
16、题，而是涉及整个社会经济各方面目标的系统问题20的GDP能耗下降，要求能源强度年下降率达到4.4%，是一个艰巨的任务改变片面追求速度和产业结构重化化重新审视相关政策（形象工程，城市功能，交通政策，消费方式等等）,Increasing energy-efficiency is not just a technology problem, it is a problem that relates to social and economic systems as a wholeTo decrease per capita energy intensity by 20% over 5 years,
17、must decrease 4.4% each year, a very ambitious targetAlter single-minded pursuit of rapid heavy industrializationSystematically review policies (i.e., civil engineering projects, land use planning, transportation policies, consumption style, etc.),国家发展和改革委员会能源研究所,为中国和世界开发新型工业化道路A New Approach to Ind
18、ustrialization for China and the World,发达国家现在的人均能源消费水平过高，中国有13亿人口，难以照搬人均能耗水平能效提高率相当低，平均只有年均1.2%长期目标是用显著低于目前发达国家的人均能源消费量，实现我国的现代化,Developed countries have high per capita energy consumption China has 1.3 billion people; it would be difficult to match such high per capita energy consumption.The rate o
19、f energy efficiency improvement is rather slow, averaging 1.2% per year.Lower per capita energy consumption is a long-term goal.,国家发展和改革委员会能源研究所,制定促进节能的综合政策 Integrated Policies to Encourage Energy Savings,建立全社会能源消费的社会目标，使能效改进成为国家，地方和重点企业的业绩考核指标需要为政府和会议发展相应指标体系,Establish energy consumption targets fo
20、r the whole nation. Make energy efficiency improvement an performance indicator for the national government, local governments, and key enterprisesDevelop an indicator system for the use in the government,国家发展和改革委员会能源研究所,制定促进节能的综合政策 Integrated Policies to Encourage Energy Savings,要把20能效目标分解要每个省市和部门改
21、进能源统计体系建立政府和企业的能源消费报告系统,Allocate the 20% intensity target to provinces, cities, and sectorsImprove energy statistics systemSet up a government and enterprise energy consumption reporting system,国家发展和改革委员会能源研究所,促进节能的价格和税收系统 Pricing and Taxation Systems to Promote Energy Savings,提供促进节能的正确市场信号改进能源定价系统，
22、包括电、油、气、煤等价格资源价格，要反映稀缺性和资源的真实价值，包括国家的利益，主要通过资源税,Give market signals that promote energy savingsImprove energy pricing policies, including those for power, oil, gas, and coalNatural resource prices (resource tax) should reflect their scarcity and true value,国家发展和改革委员会能源研究所,促进节能的价格和税收系统 Pricing and Ta
23、xation Systems to Promote Energy Savings,改进油价管制体系，和石油市场管理相关在进一步电力改革中考虑电价政策把煤炭和其他燃料在开采，加工和终端利用中的外部性内部化,Improve oil price regulationReform power pricing policiesInternalize the external costs of the end use, processing, and extraction of coal and other fuels,国家发展和改革委员会能源研究所,需要考虑的税收措施 Taxation Measures
24、 to be Considered,是税收系统的新课题，需要创造和改进首先实现燃油税，以后考虑能源税对奢侈消费实行分级税收，如汽车对采暖收费制度进行调整，包括对低效建筑罚款限制高能耗产品出口的税收政策,This is a new problem for the taxation system; must be created and improvedFuel tax first; energy tax in the future?Graduated luxury tax for cars Adjust heating tariff collection system, including pe
25、nalties for inefficient buildingsTaxation policies should limit the export of energy-intensive products,国家发展和改革委员会能源研究所,标准（强制性和非强制性） Standards (both mandatory and voluntary),做为市场条件下非常重要的节能促进措施对主要耗能产品，家电，主要工业工艺，耗能设备制定能效标准重视建筑物能效，对不同气候带制定和实施能效标准，关键在实施汽车的能效标识系统,Very important for tool energy improving
26、efficiency in a market systemDevelop standards and codes for energy-intensive products, home, appliances major industrial processes, and energy-intensive industrial equipmentDevelop and enforce building energy-efficiency standards in different climate zones; enforcement is the keyVehicle fuel econom
27、y standardsLabeling systems,国家发展和改革委员会能源研究所,对合理消费的引导 Lead the Way toward Reasonable Consumption,新的发展观要有相应的消费模式保障大多数人的合理能源服务对住房，交通，日常生活，技术发展，和投资都要制定引导政策注重教育，知识传播，媒体导向等等形成社会共识，改变习惯和传统,New development mode necessitates sustainable consumption pattern Ensure appropriate energy service for most peopleHou
28、sing, transportation, daily life, technological development, and investment all need guidance policiesUse education and the mediaForm social consensus; change social customs,国家发展和改革委员会能源研究所,需要真正，具体和巨大的努力 Need Real, Tremendous Efforts,能效目标不容易实现市场力量不足以推动能效提高地方政府仍然首先追求GDP高增长技术市场的分隔新技术的交易成本较高虽然节能潜力巨大，但也
29、是可持续发展的新探索需要逐步实现,Difficult goal to realizeLaissez-faire will not yield satisfactory energy-efficiency improvementsGDP growth is the priority for local governmentsSeparated technology marketsHigh transaction costs for new technologiesAlthough there is great energy-savings potential, we must also explore other ways for sustainable development Must improve step-by-step,
