1、,气候变化对中国近海渔业资源的影响Potential impacts of regional climate change on China fishery resources,Chen, Xue-zhong陈雪忠Director, East China Sea Fisheries Research Institute,Chinese Academy of Fisheries Sciences 中国水产科学研究院东海水产研究所2011. 6,Contents of this talk 概要,1 引言 Introduction2 中国海洋气候变化对渔业资源影响的研究与进展 To review t
2、he potential impact of climate change on the fish & fisheries of China Seas. 3 研究中存在的问题及研究趋势 Challenges & Prospective4 建议合作方向 Proposed cooperation,？,1 引言 Introduction,海洋生物物种组成和地理分布格局变化明显，近海海洋生态灾害频发，渔业生物资源严重衰退等主要由全球气候变化引发的生态问题日益凸现。Ecological problems mainly caused by global climate change became appa
3、rent, including significantly changed species composition and of geographical distribution patterns of marine organisms, frequently happened coastal ecological disasters and severe recession of fishery resources.,中国政府对全球气候变化问题高度重视，先后开展相关研究计划。 2000年以来的受国家自然科学基金与全球变化相关的项目154项，其中重点和重大项目43项，其它项目111项，合计经
4、费6894万元，与海洋相关的20项。 2000年以来受科技部资助的与气候变化有关的973项目80余项，与海洋相关的近20项，仅2010年中国应对全球变化973项目公示预算达3.7亿，其中支持与海洋相关的项目6项。The Chinese Government attaches great importance to global climate change: National Science Foundation has launched a major research project - and its regional response to global change, the Min
5、istry of Science and Technology launched 973 Basic Research Program, and other related research projects. Since 2000, 154 projects related to global climate change were funded by nation science foundation, including 43 key and major projects, and more than 20 projects were marine lelated. Since 2000
6、, more than 80 projected related to climate change were funded by 973 Basic Research Program, nearly 20 ocean-related. In 2010, Chinese government budgeted 3.7 hundred million to fund 973 projects related to global climated change, including 6 projects marine ralated.,1 引言 Introduction,2 中国海洋气候变化对渔业
7、资源影响研究与进展2 Impacts of climate change on the fish & fisheries of China Seas,从1985年起，东海海表水温升高达1.5 oC The East China Sea has experienced a dramatic 1.5 oC warming since 1985.,2.1 SST change in the East China Sea,2.1 近海表层水温变暖趋势,受以全球气候变化为主导因素的多重压力胁迫的影响，近50多年来，中国近海生态系统发生了很大的变化。海洋生态灾害发生的频率与种类不断增加，除有害赤潮外，水母
8、灾害也非常严重。进一步加剧了中国的海洋渔业资源衰退。 The factors, which caused the coastal ecosystem unstable, is complicated. However, global climate change was one of the factors mainly responsible for unstable ecosystem . During the last five decades, Chinese coastal ecosystem has experienced a regime shift under the mult
9、iple stresses. The increasing frequency of ecological disasters including harmful algae blooms and jellyfish outburst have been observed. These have made the recession of fishery resources in China seas intensified .,2.2 对渔业环境的影响2.2 Effects on fish habitat,长江口主要渔场,东海洋流图Circulation in the East China
10、Sea,研究区域：东海及其主要渔场East China Sea and fishing ground,2.3 对东海浮游动物的影响2.3 Effects on zooplanktonic community structure,温水种和暖温种 (如太平洋磷虾Euphausia pacifica 和中华哲水蚤Calanus sinicus)丰度减少; Abundances of temperate 总生物量显著降低。 Total biomass and abundances of zooplankton have decreased.,案例1 对太平洋磷虾的影响case 1 effects on
11、 Euphausia pacifica,Table Yearto-year variation in abundance of Euphausia pacifica in spring of northern East China Sea,North retreat of its distribution and decrease in abundance.,note: ST, surface temperature; BT, bottom temperature; A: average abundance (individuals/m3),案例2 对中华哲水蚤的影响case 2 effect
12、s on Calanus sinicus,中华哲水蚤是中国近海的主要优势种。在全球变暖的背景下，春季高丰度维持时间大幅缩短，最高丰度从1959年时的6月提前至2005年时的5月，这代表了广温性暖温种对全球变暖响应的重要特征。,Calanus sinicus was the predominant zooplankton in East China Sea. Its abundance decreased greatly because of sea warming, particular in spring. The ending of maximum abundance of the sp.
13、 is earlier (in May) than used to be (in June), which expected to be have negative effects on the larvae and juvenile of some commercially important species.,2.4 对鱼类回游路线的影响2.4 Effects on fish migration,在厄尔尼诺发生年份，黑潮暖流势力增强，冬季加剧了黑潮对东海大陆架的入侵，导致带鱼越冬场向东海近海移动。When El Nino occurred, the Kuroshio Current wou
14、ld be strengthened, which made the over wintering ground of hairtail inhabiting in the Yellow Sea and East China Sea swift to the offshore of East China Sea.,厄尔尼诺 2000年冬季El Nino， winter of 2000,桡足类是小黄鱼稚幼鱼的主要饵料 。 5-6月，小黄鱼稚幼鱼群体与中华哲水蚤高丰度区域重叠.,中华哲水蚤分布Distribution pattern of Calanus sinicus,东、黄、渤海小黄鱼的洄游路
15、线Migration routes of the small yellow croaker in the Bohai, Yellow, East China Seas,2.4 春夏之交浮饵料游动物数量变化对小黄鱼渔场的潜在威胁 2.4 Effects on fish migration,小黄鱼逐月分布图 monthly distribution of small yellow croaker,春spring,然而，鱼类种群变动机制非常复杂。经历了上世纪60年代对小黄鱼(Pseudosciaena polyactis )灭绝性捕捞后，70年代小黄鱼产量下降明显。随后在70年代，在国家有力的保护措
16、施下，该鱼种资源量逐渐恢复。在资源恢复过程中，受全球变暖影响明显的东海种群和黄海南部种群资源恢复很快，但在北方寒冷水域的种群，例如渤海种群、日本海种群等资源量恢复不明显。在东、黄海，现有小黄鱼的资源量远远超过50年代。已经成为继带鱼之后，东黄海产量第二大的经济品种。有关小黄鱼种群恢复机制正在研究中。The dynamics of small yellow croaker stocks are complicated. In the 1980s, overfishing led to depletion of the small yellow croaker stock in the East
17、China Sea. To protect the fishery resource, China government has then practiced summer fishing moratorium system in the East China Sea annually. An evident increased was observed in the catches of small yellow croaker in East China Sea. In the meanwhile, the small yellow croaker stocks in Bohai Sea
18、and East Sea (Sea of Japan) have not recovered. In the East China and Yellow Sea, the stocks of small yellow croaker increased significantly, even higher than in the 1950s. Studies on he recovery mechanisms of the species is in process.,2.4 对鱼类回游路线的影响2.4 Effects on fish migration,Annual variations o
19、f small yellow croaker catch in China, Japan and Korea,2001-2009年中国近海捕捞产量(万吨) Catches of fisheries from the China seas (unit: 10 thousands tons),2.4 对鱼类回游路线的影响2.4 Effects on fish migration,3 研究中存在的问题及研究趋势 3 Challenges & Prospective,鱼类生活史复杂，多具有回游习性。 Life histories of fish was complicated, most of the
20、m are migrated species.大范围、逐月的渔业资源调查资料不易获得 Monthly data on large scale of fish and fishery is difficult to obtained. 其他因素，尤其是捕捞对鱼类产生的影响难以剔除； Effects of fishing on the fish and fisheries is not easy to excluded.,3 存在的问题及研究趋势 Challenges & Prospective,1）全球变暖和环流时空演变特征 分析我国近海水动力环境对EL Nino事件和北太平洋振荡（PDO）的响
21、应。 2）全球变暖在形成主要渔场中作用和地位 进一步分析全球变暖对鱼类饵料生物关键数量、鱼类洄游、集群等的影响。3）近海全球变暖对渔场变迁影响的评估 评估近海环境变暖对渔场、渔期变动、饵料数量和渔业资源变化的影响。4）东黄海渔情预报工作 结合全球变暖趋势，发展东、黄海渔情中期预报。,Effects of global warming on temporal and spatial evolutions of ocean circulation Analyzing the influence of EL Nino and PDO on hydrodynamic environment of Ch
22、ina seas. impacts of global warming in forming the fishing grounds Analyzing the effects of global warming on the abundance of key food organisms of fishery species, migratory pattern and aggregate behavior of specified species.Assessment of influence of global warming on fishing grounds Analyze how
23、 the fishery species and their food organisms in fishing grounds respond to the variation of ocean currents. Forecast work of fishing condition in the Yellow and East China Seas Making medium-range forecasting of fishing condition by forecasting model.,3 存在的问题及研究趋势 Challenges & Prospective,4 建议双方合作的
24、课题 proposed cooperation,1）全球大洋性主要捕捞鱼类资源对全球气候变化的响应 基于全球大洋性主要捕捞鱼类资源的时空分布模式以及进行资源重心变化的时空分析，分析海温、叶绿素、海流等环境因子进行主要变化模态，研究大型食鱼性鱼类与气候环境因子的时间序列变化，分析鱼类资源变化的生态特征，分析研究生态特征变化驱动因子，并在此基础上解析主要鱼类对全球气候变化的响应方式、过程和机制。1） Effects of global climate change on oceanic commercially important species Spatial-temporal distribu
25、tion patterns of oceanic commercially important species；Ecological characteristics of fish habitat in Pacific Ocean; Key ecological factors that regulate the changes in fishing ground; Different mechanisms of these oceanic species Response to global climate change.,4 建议双方合作的课题 proposed cooperation,2
26、）太平洋磷虾的种群变动机制及其对全球变暖的响应 太平洋磷虾主要分布在太平洋东、西沿海，是鱼类重要饵料生物。在太平洋西部（东海）分布区南界正向北移动。在气候变暖环境下，太平洋磷虾地理分布的向北飘移对渔场饵料基础有重要的影响，建议就此主题分别在东、西太平洋两岸开展合作研究。2）Population dynamics of Euphausia pacifica , and its response mechanisms to global climate change (in theory). Euphausia pacifica was widely distribution in the coa
27、stal areas of the Pacific. The species was import food for some fishes. For the impact of climate change, the sp. has north retreat of East China Sea. The potential effect of the changes in geographic distribution of the sp. on fish and fishery should studied in the future, and we suggest to take a
28、cooperation on the subject.,4 建议双方合作的课题 proposed cooperation,海洋酸化与海洋变暖对我国东海经济鱼类生化组成及繁殖能力的影响 海洋变暖与海洋酸化的耦合效应对海洋中光合生物种群组成的影响（嗜碳种类与嗜氮种类的比例）; 海水变暖与海洋酸化的耦合效应对我国东海海域常见的经济鱼类的生长及生化组成变化的影响; 海水变暖与海洋酸化的耦合效应对我国东海海域常见的经济鱼类的繁殖能力的影响，尝试从分子水平（DNA）予以阐释。,3) Combined effects of Ocean acidification and ocean warming on t
29、he biochemical composition and breeding of economic fish from the East Sea of China. The coupling effect ocean warming and ocean acidification on the ocean species composition of photosynthetic organisms (the ratio of addicted to carbon species and nitrogen species). The coupling effect seawater warming and ocean acidification on the growth and biochemical composition of some economy fish. The coupling effect seawater warming and ocean acidification on the reproduction capacity of economy fish.,4 建议双方合作的课题 proposed cooperation,谢 谢！Thank you for your attention！,
