1、Philip SuttonConvenerGreenleap Strategic Institute29 October 2006 (Version 1.c),Creating a Green Growth StrategyWorkshop notes,Up-to-date notes can be found at: http:/www.green-innovations.asn.au/green-growth/Green-growth.htm,Anchoring Green Growth Strategies on actually achieving sustainability, ve
2、ry fast,The real structure of the economy,Conversion of Natures economy to the Human economy,There is a rapid switch in the ratio of Indirect vs Direct Costs of developments as natures economy shrinks and the human economy grows,Once the human economy gets large enough (relative to the size of the e
3、arth) indirect costs escalate at a hyper-exponential rate, and both the natural environment and the human economy become unsustainable,Climate change case study,Petit, J. et al. (1999). Climate and atmospheric history of the past 420,000 years from the Vostok ice core, Antarctica, Nature, Volume 399
4、 Number 6735 Pp. 429-436.,400,000 year record of CO2 and temperature,Flows of emissions of CO2 from burning fossil-fuels have risen rapidly since 1950,Source: World Resources Institute, CAIT,Gt CO2,Strong Global Warming Observed,Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and ResearchBased on Folland et al
5、 (2000) and Jones and Moberg (2003),This depiction of linear trends in the Palmer Drought Severity Index from 1948 to 2002 shows drying (reds and pinks) across much of Canada, Europe, Asia, and Africa and moistening (green) across parts of the United States, Argentina, Scandinavia, and western Austr
6、alia. (Illustration courtesy Aiguo Dai and the American Meteorological Society.) National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) http:/www.ucar.edu/news/releases/2005/drought_research.shtml,Global soil moisture trends 1948 - 2002,Global insurance losses1970 2005,Source: Swiss Re sigma no1/2005 www.t
7、heclimategroup.org/assets/Bruce%20Thomas%20(06-04%20pm).ppt,Additional short term threats,Increased frequency and more intense firesIncreased storms severity (cyclones, hurricanes, tornados, hail storms)Bigger sea storm surgesHigher temperatures / heat stressIncreased soil loss / dust stormsWater sh
8、ortagesMigration of pests and diseasesLoss of soil carbonFood shortages,2 C warming is thought to be a rough boundary between dangerous and catastrophic climate change,Global average surface equilibrium temperature change for various stabilization targets. Source: Azar, C., & Rodhe, H., 1997. Target
9、s for Stabilization of Atmospheric CO2. Science 276, 1818-1819. . Dashed line a) refers to an estimate of the maximum natural variability of the global temperature over the past millennium, and dashed line b) shows the 2oC temperature threshold.,Modelling the recent evolution of global drought and p
10、rojections for the 21st century with the Hadley Centre climate modelEleanor J. Burke, Simon J. Brown and Nikolaos ChristidisHadley Centre for Climate Prediction and ResearchOctober 2006,Severe drought over 40% of land (agriculture unviable on 30%)Near total loss of the AmazonBetween 20% - 60% loss o
11、f all species on EarthAccelerating sea level riseLoss of Himalayan ice sheet (and seasonal snow melt)Loss of the Arctic and Antarctic sea iceMelting of the permafrost,Crucial Prevention AspectAvoiding Catastrophic Climate Change,Dangerous & catastrophic climate change,We have already entered the rea
12、lm of dangerous climate changeIt is thought that warming more than 2C over the pre-industrial level will lead to catastrophic climate changeThere is a 20-30% chance that we will trigger 2C warming with 400 ppm CO2 an atmospheric level that will be reached in less than 10 years unless massive cuts no
13、w.,“We need to treat climate change not as a long-term threat to our environment but as an immediate threat to our security andprosperity” “It is now becomingincreasingly clear that it is what we do in the next 15 years that matters most.” John Ashton, the UKs climatechange envoy, 8 September 2006,E
14、nting, I., Wigley, T. and Heimann, M. (1994). Technical Paper No. 31: Future emissions and concentrations of carbon dioxide: Key ocean / atmosphere / land analyses. CSIRO Division of Atmospheric Research: Melbourne.,One scenario for stabilising atmospheric CO2 at 350 ppmv.,There is too much CO2 in t
15、he air right now!,We need to get to zero greenhouse gas emissions as fast as possible (within 10 years)We need to take excess CO2 out of the air as fast as possible to bring the atmospheric level down to between 300-280 ppm (precautionary principle),End ofclimate change case study,A completely new d
16、evelopment paradigm needed,Green growth must be 100% decoupled from damage and it must enable the restoration of natures economy (our sector zero) to safe condition.Economic development must now be truly ecologically sustainable.This is not comfortable political rhetoric it has huge implications for
17、 how to change and manage the economy and for how politics is conducted.,Key is to 100% de-link economic growth from environmental impact / waste,Homeostatic management,Dynamically creating/maintaining a state of sustainability prevention (eg. Natural Step principles) recovery/restoration,Key concep
18、ts,We need to be clear about what we are trying to sustain and the scale and urgency of the taskWe have to apply double-practicality - get things done and do things that actually solve problemsSustainability requires having no major trade-offsWe need to recognise that we are facing a global sustaina
19、bility emergency.,Creating a Green Growth Strategy,Economic growth relates to the service flow (of the whole product), not to the physical platform (which makes it possible for dematerialisation to work),Near term economic growth is compatible with a major once-off restoration of the environment if.
20、,the total of all the physical platforms of all economic output can be changed in character and shrunk small enough physically to be compatible with the maintenance of everything that needs to be sustained, ANDthe real value of economic output does not collapse in the process of physical adjustment
21、and can keep rising during the transformation period,Economic growth is compatible with perpetual prevention of damage to the environment and of wastage of resources.,if the total of all the physical platforms of all economic output remains small enough and of the right character physically to be co
22、mpatible with the maintenance of everything that needs to be sustained, ANDthe total service flow from economic output can keep increasing within that constraint,This means that once basic human physical needs are met ,all future economic growth is generated through net qualitative change, not physi
23、cal expansion, ANDcompatible productivity boosting mechanisms are tapped,What is the character of the physical platform shrinkage and change?,A Factor 20 or more dematerialisation (for developed countries), and then maintenance of a capped quantity of materials and energy for all purposes (Developin
24、g countries will also need to dematerialise inefficient sectors and processes)The creation of a virtually closed-loop economy (everything recycled)Stabilisation of population (after gentle shrinkage?)Declining use of oil from nowEffectively zero greenhouse gas emissionsFull transition to renewable e
25、nergySequestration of past greenhouse gas emissions to stay below or get below 400 ppm CO2 fast and to trend towards 300 to 280 ppm over timeMajor restoration of habitat for threatened speciesMove to zero toxic emissionsetc.,Stock enhanced while in use,New capital,Fixed (or declining) flow of renewa
26、ble energy,Fixed (or declining) stock of materials maintained in a closed-cycle (with minuscule top up from nature),Continually rising service flow- to benefit a stable population at a sustainable level,Reuse & recycle,The conditions under which a truly sustainable economy could have continuing econ
27、omic growth,How can service flow be boosted in perpetuity?,via improved qualitiesvia more qualitiesthat benefit the user and the environment/communityachieving this depends on compatible sources of productivity growthand this depends on continuing innovation to overcome diminishing returns,Major sou
28、rces of productivity growth that neednt drive physical expansion and can co-exist with physical contraction:,Lean production / closed-cycle productionIncreased knowledge & information intensity / intensified educationInternet communicationsFast, needs-based leapfrogging-innovation system driven by s
29、ustainability transitionWhole-system designGreen chemistry / nanotechnology / biotechnology (miniaturisation)Physical proximity (new model of urban form)Reduced scale & therefore opportunity to mass produce/speed up creation of production capacity & infrastructure Reduced environmental damage / redu
30、ced wastageFull employmentArtificial intelligence,Old: Sources of productivity diminished by shift from physically growing economy,Cheap physical resources and abundant supply (materials, energy, water, land) (But this source of productivity is being constrained anyway) Quick and easy single-purpose
31、 decision-making on most things (but leads often to poor/low wisdom decision-making),New: Sources of productivity boosted by shift to environmentally sustainable economy,Speed and ease of proximity (in urban design) Increased skills in whole-system design opening up greater access to leapfrog innova
32、tion Necessarily ubiquitous application of lean thinking Necessarily ubiquitous application of smart technology and AI Low levels of health/environment damage More highly skilled workforce / community Reduced real expenditure on raw materials Drag on economy released due to low unemployment / undere
33、mployment,Can the necessary short-term physical shrinkage/change be achieved without collapsing economic growth?,there is a big enough increase in investment, with temporary shrinkage of discretionary consumption, plus really effective redeployment of sunk capital (cf. WW2 US),Arguably yes, if there
34、 is sufficient innovation to keep boosting productivity, andthere is enough time, so that normal investment levels can cover the restructuring, orfor a short-duration transition,Theory of natural capital,In perpetuity: Natural capital as infrastructure with service flow ecosystem services and renewa
35、ble resource flowOnce-off: draw down / economic take off / payback: restoration/resequestration is the payback those who benefit from the drawdown (through economic take-off) should pay for the restoration (eg. fossil energy use CO2 resequestration),Theory of rationing, ecotaxation & related instrum
36、ents,Rationing, ecotaxes (& related economic instruments) are regulatory tools they should be managed for regulatory effect in innovative system revenue should fall if ecotaxes are effectiveThe way revenue is recycled from auctioned rations, ecotaxes etc. is critical to maximising productivity and m
37、inimising inflation,How can we avoid rebound?,Through macroeconomic management using:rationsecotaxestradable permitsregulationRebound is a symptom of the failure of macroeconomic management.Rebound is also a symptom of 300+ year old institutional arrangements that cause resources to become systemati
38、cally cheaper than labour intensive products (factor price problem).,Simplifying the task of dealing with multiple issues at the level of industry/economy restructuring,Pick the issues that have the biggest impact that cant be ignored or that we cant afford to ignore (eg. climate change, peak oil, w
39、ater, food supply)Use these issues to work out the maximum scale & speed of action necessary this calibrates the restructuring (calibration issues)Identify other important issues that ought to be taken really seriously where if these issues are taken into account solutions to the other issues will n
40、eed to be changed (eg. biodiversity) (solution-changing issues)Deal with all other issues at the level of detailed implementation of the restructuring program.,Divide action into a crash program & a long run innovation program,If any of the calibration or solution changing issues require major chang
41、es to the economy within a 5-20 year period, they need to be managed through a formally recognised crash programAny issues that will have (a) a big impact on the economy or (b) must be responded to, but can be tackled over an extended time period, should be part of a long run radical invention & inn
42、ovation program.,Analyse using supply chains* rather than industry sectors & regional economies,The economy is going to have to change so much, in so many detailed ways, that if we use industry sectors & regional economies as the basis for analysis and solution building, we will lock in old (bad) pr
43、actice and vested interestsInformation about transformed industry sectors & regional economies should be created by aggregating data or ideas about the new supply chains.,* Includes the “end of life chains” as well to make up a full lifecycle chain.,Old business-as-usual, new business-as-usual and t
44、he sustainability-achieving economy,The old business-as-usual economy is based on physical expansion, resource throughput and only (sometimes scant) attention to local environmental problemsThe new business-as-usual is beginning to emerging in response to climate change and other environmental crise
45、s it is using a new generation of technologies to make a big reduction in externalities but it does not attempt to fully eliminate externalities so it will face new crises down the track as the economy growsThe sustainability-achieving green growth paradigm is based on systematically eliminating ext
46、ernalities so that economic growth does not periodically recreate major crises.,Positive correlations,In the developed world, generally the countries and provinces with the strongest environmental controls have the strongest economies.In the developed world, generally the countries and provinces wit
47、h the strongest environmental controls have the leading exports of related technologies,Fastest industrial restructuring,Korea: from agricultural nation to world competitive manufacturing economy in 20 years US: after Pearl Harbor: from worlds largest consumer economy to worlds largest war economy i
48、n 1 year,(complete infrastructure change),(complete change to how infrastructure is used),Questions for workshop(following),Questions: Framing issues,How much development do we need for social reasons? (The more economic development we want the stronger our environmental policies need to be to get 1
49、00% decoupling.)How big and how urgent does the environmental restructuring program need to be? How will the crash program and the long run innovation program run?How do we want to position our economies within the world economy? - in relation to (a) the old business-as-usual, (b) the new business-as-usual and (c) the new sustainability-achieving elements of the economy?,
